The Silent--George Will and Joe Califano are the worst--have more difficulty seeing these generational patterns at work. It's almost as though Millennials are undermining their life's work (or, at a minimum, their ideological hobby horses).

Our books have always met with far more skepticism among the Silent than among any of the younger generations. They are less inclined than others to believe that there is such a thing as a "generation." Now, they're most retired. When I give speeches and ask audience members to identify themselves by generation, there are usually no Silent present--at most, one or two.

Millennials are too young to evaluate on this, but of all today's generations, Gen Xers seem to be the most supportive of our theory, perhaps because it gives them a real role in history.

To Andy '85.

That's a big question! To cover the waterfront, keep in mind the seven "cardinal traits" of a young Hero archetype that we refer to in Millennials Rising. All of these traits distinguish Millennials quite clearly from Xers or Boomers. These traits describe Millennials as (1) special, (2) sheltered, (3) confident, (4) teamplaying, (5) conventional, (6) pressured, and (7) achieving. We gave plenty of examples in MR, and we've added more in more recent articles and interviews. The examples are "up cards," things that we've predicted and suggested and that have already come to pass. There are also downcards, things that we expect but haven't yet happened.

One Millennial "down card" for us has been politics. With the recent election, this card may be flipping over--from now on, I think, we will be talking about Millennial political clout increasingly in the present tense rather than the future. The fact is that voter turnout in the youth bracket (age 18-29) has risen from 35 to 52% from 1996 to 2004. In absolute numbers, that's a gain from 14 to 21 million. And in the 10 tossup states, this percentage exceeded 60%, matching older generations in a pres election for the first time in decades. We don't have more detailed age breakdowns, but I suspect that this gain is due to Millennials (now 22 and under) more than late-wave Xers (23-29)--for the simple reason that we saw so much new activity on campuses and that older Xers (age 30-45) have recently been declining as a share of the electorate.

--Neil

Good evening, gentlemen!

Is it my imagination or does T4T usually usher in a new basis for the economy? King cotton wasn't king after the Civil War, RR's quickly went south after WWII. Is oil and the combustion engine on their way out?

Also Neil, when you spoke about Great Britain's lack of obvious crisis in the mid-19th century, I thought of Eric Hoffer's 'True Believer', which I find surprisingly generational. He points out that it is not always the poor and under-priviledged that have revolutions. Sometimes it is the rich and powerful.

Dear Bill,

Originally Posted by William Strauss

> John, the only question I see here is whether any update of a
> Generations book would include foreign generations. Apart from
> perhaps a brief discussion about a few nations that appear to be
> on (or only slightly behind) the American rhythm, and a few others
> that do not, we expect any update to be purely about American
> generations--like the original book.

> It's by no means clear that we can publish an update. That's a
> decision for the publisher, not us.

Well, I certainly appreciate the difficulties of dealing with
publishers. I was just hoping I could interest you in doing some
work on international generations. Please just think about it before
you entirely reject the idea. I think it would be an incredibly
valuable project.

One more thought: You must have a lot of contact with college
professors who are interested in Generations. Perhaps you could
interest someone else in the academic community who is from another
country.

Incidentally, with respect to Crispy's question about getting
academic validation, I've done some research in over 100 places and
times throughout history to measure the amount of time from the end of
one crisis war to the beginning of the next, and came up with the
following table:

Code:

             Fraction
    # years  of total
    -------  --------
      0- 40      0%
     41- 49     11%
     50- 59     33%
     60- 69     25%
     70- 79     16%
     80- 89      4%
     90- 99      6%
    100-117      5%

I don't have any academic credentials, so I can't help you get
academic support, but I believe that these findings provide powerful
validation of your work.

Sincerely,

John

Originally Posted by William Strauss

The Silent--George Will and Joe Califano are the worst--have more difficulty seeing these generational patterns at work. It's almost as though Millennials are undermining their life's work (or, at a minimum, their ideological hobby horses).

Our books have always met with far more skepticism among the Silent than among any of the younger generations. They are less inclined than others to believe that there is such a thing as a "generation." Now, they're most retired. When I give speeches and ask audience members to identify themselves by generation, there are usually no Silent present--at most, one or two.

Millennials are too young to evaluate on this, but of all today's generations, Gen Xers seem to be the most supportive of our theory, perhaps because it gives them a real role in history.

Interesting analysis Bill, I have struggled for years to understand the mindset of the Silent generation, it is very complez and confusing, more than anyother generation. I have a feeling once we are deep into the 4T and the Silents are pretty much gone from public life, society is going to deeply miss them.

From what I observed, this year's get-out-the-vote youth activism campaigns were usually Gen-X-led, with Millennials providing the mass. Even in this election, the Gen-X turnout wasn't that great. We can't pin down the numbers for the Millennial turnout, because the exit polls used an 18- to 29-year-old age bracket (combining what we believe were heavy-voting collegians with lighter-voting late-wave Gen Xer singles).

There's no question that Gen Xers will provide important mentors for Millennials, in politics, schools, the workplace, and elsewhere. (In our forthcoming book, "Millennials and the Popular Culture," we know we're addressing Gen Xers, some of whom are getting Millennials right and others of whom are getting them spectacularly wrong.) In politics, I expect that Barack Obama--a Gen Xer--will become very popular among Millennials.

:!: I just got an instant e-mail from CNN indicating that Arafat has in fact, definitely, positively, actually died. This would be a good time to answer my question about Palestinian succession... John Xenakis once posted that he thought the death of Arafat would be the defining moment in a 4T transition in Israel. Any thoughts?

Originally Posted by Rick Hirst

:!: I just got an instant e-mail from CNN indicating that Arafat has in fact, definitely, positively, actually died. This would be a good time to answer my question about Palestinian succession... John Xenakis once posted that he thought the death of Arafat would be the defining moment in a 4T transition in Israel. Any thoughts?

I dunno if Bill or Neil agree with me, I came to the conculsion after some research that the Middle East (maybe including Israel) is very much behind us on the saeculum. Their last awakening only ended around 1999, Ararat is most likely the member of a Hero generation, which was represented by a generation of powerful secular leaders like the Shah of Iran, Saddam Hussein, Former King of Syria and maybe Barak and Sharon.

To Bob Butler:

I like your "two spirals" perspective. One, a sort of timeless and localized cycle of social entropy and disintegration with ageold challenges of poverty and dislocation and disease. Another, a globalized movement triggered by a religious awakening--the Islamist Awakening, to be specific, which took off around 1979 and is still with us through the Islamic belt of nations (though it may now be beginning to subside--see the new post-Prophet youth generation arising in Iran and the post-Soviet Turkic Republics). But let me provoke you with another possibility, one that I've been hearing alot from intelligence types in the DC community. And this is that much of subSaharan Africa (your cycle number one) may also be now convulsed in a religious awakening. If so, it started a bit later (maybe mid-80s) and is being fired by Christianity more than by Islam. Quite simply, much of subSaharan Africa (Uganda and Nigeria are epicenters) is now gripped in a Christian evangelical upheaval. I would refer you to a recent book by Philip Jenkins, The Next Christendom, as well as some excellent followup articles in the New Republic and elsewhere.

--Neil

Originally Posted by William Strauss

I disagree that we are on a long cycle of decline in the culture. There's more than a hint of old-age crankiness in Sorokin's bleak comparison of the Ninth Symphony with "vulgar jazz." Jazz has led to some wonderful cultural currents, from Gershwin to Benny Goodwin to Elvis and beyond. There are many, and not just in the red zone, who feel that today's popular culture has been degraded beyond the point of repair. Fourth turnings have a way of making these repairs, as occurred during the Great Depression and World War II...

"The decline of the sensate phase of our culture does not mean the death of Western culture and population, nevertheless the temporary destruction of great cultural values in the transitional period may be too catastrophic; the magnitude of human misery too enormous, the tragedy of these ?deis irae? too great, to permit us to join these philistine salesmen of hollow progress. ?

. . . a bit to fatalistic?

Having lived through a dire unraveling and on though a dire crisis and (?) on into a dire atomic age, I can see where he is coming from.

I see jazz as an artistic expression of the West. Western Civilization has had many revolutions, reformations and transformations... Religious, Scientific, Political, Social. Most of them involve releasing the sense of the ideal, the perfect, the known, the notion that mixed power of Church, State and God were the source of all power and knowledge.

Each revolution ripped something away from the Ideal and gave something to Man. Scientific knowledge comes not from Papal authority, but from observing nature. Political power does not come when the Pope crowns the king, but is based ultimately on the consent of the governed, on The People. In some respect I see first jazz then rock as an extension of the modern way of perceiving the world. The core of the West is in the celebration of the individual, in celebrating each unique and passing performance, rather than classical movement's striving for more rigid ideal forms. Jazz echoes a world in which science and government serve man, rather than man serving Church and State.

Lots of perspectives on art. I would doubt any one of them are uniquely true. I would not ignore Sorokin's warning, but we can't reject arts which speak to the hearts of our own time.

Hello Mr.'s Strauss and Howe,

I have 3 questions:

1) In either Generations or Fourth Turning, you mentioned the late mid-late 1950's cohorts as being the group that will provide us with the most fiery Crisis leadership (the David Koresh types). Do you still see this group as being the most dangerous potential leaders, and in what spheres of national life (healthcare, education, morals, etc.) do you see them being particularly notable?

2) Do you have any new or further insights into the troubled 61-64 cohorts?

3) In Awakening/Unraveling Eras, new ideas are experimented with on the local/state level (Jane Addams and Clara Barton with public/institutional charity and FDR with deficit spending and big government programs) that ultimately become institutions in the following cycle. What ideas from the current Awakening/Unraveling do you see becoming mainstays of the next cycle?

I ask this (#3) is because that is what I was reminded of when Bush announced his goals for the second term (tax reform, SS privatization, etc). These are ideas that could become mainstays if they succeed, but it seems late in the Unraveling to be experimenting, and on the national level too.

Originally Posted by Rick Hirst

:!: I just got an instant e-mail from CNN indicating that Arafat has in fact, definitely, positively, actually died. This would be a good time to answer my question about Palestinian succession... John Xenakis once posted that he thought the death of Arafat would be the defining moment in a 4T transition in Israel. Any thoughts?

I'd like to tag on to this and J. Xenakis' thoughts:

You've stated that you think the rest of the Anglosphere is just a couple years behind us saecularly, and Continental Western Europe a couple of years behind them. Where do you saecularly place:

Russia? Some here say the "Great Patriotic War" was actually a 1T! I don't agree.
China? Did their 4T end in 1949 or with the horrible conclusion to the Great Leap Forward?
Japan? Many here are inclinded to think their 3T only began very recently.
The Middle East? Was the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent "Islamic Resurgence" a 2T as most here suspect?
The Balkans? J.X. is a strong proponent of WWI and the 90's conflict being 4T there.

Originally Posted by Saeculum

To Bob Butler:

But let me provoke you with another possibility, one that I've been hearing alot from intelligence types in the DC community. And this is that much of subSaharan Africa (your cycle number one) may also be now convulsed in a religious awakening. If so, it started a bit later (maybe mid-80s) and is being fired by Christianity more than by Islam. Quite simply, much of subSaharan Africa (Uganda and Nigeria are epicenters) is now gripped in a Christian evangelical upheaval. I would refer you to a recent book by Philip Jenkins, The Next Christendom, as well as some excellent followup articles in the New Republic and elsewhere.

--Neil

(Insert Darth Vader heavy breathing sound effects.) Provocation accepted.

Is Al Gore preparing to become a Gray Champion? He grew a beard, didn't he? He'd first need to get elected president, and right now I don't see a path for him, unless: If no one runs against Hillary, maybe he would step in. The Gores and Clintons do not like each other, and haven't since the Lewinsky scandal.

You asked about a number of fundamental issues. Yes, Neil and I expect a re-widening (and modern update) of gender roles during a fourth turning. The males will assert themselves as protectors, women (increasingly) as professionals. The high achievement and ambition of young Millennial women bears watching.

On race, the American view, and situation, will evolve as older generations pass on and younger generations mature into political power. Millennials date across racial lines more than any other generation ever did--by far. "Race" is, to them, a blurry word. What makes you "black" or "Asian" or "Caucasian"? (To the US Civil Service, anybody from Pakistan across to Morocco is deemed "Caucasian," while very careful divisions are made among other racial groups.) And it's not at all a black-white (or even black-white-Latino) issue any more.

One new aspect of the Millennial perspective on black-white relations is driven by the economics of the modern culture. If you ask a teenager to list all the Americans he or she knows who earn over $5 million, that list will have a great many black names--possibly more than half. The affectations of poverty have been claimed by African-American entertainers and athletes who earn enormous sums.

The significant generational issue, for Millennials, is money, not race.

That said, you're right that Gen Xers are willing to resegregate when they think it makes sense for their kids. It's not a racism thing--it's a practical lifestyle choice thing. Look for Millennials to begin undoing that, much as they will undo racial separations on campus, over the next several years.

Originally Posted by Saeculum

To Bob Butler:

I like your "two spirals" perspective. One, a sort of timeless and localized cycle of social entropy and disintegration with ageold challenges of poverty and dislocation and disease. Another, a globalized movement triggered by a religious awakening--the Islamist Awakening, to be specific, which took off around 1979 and is still with us through the Islamic belt of nations (though it may now be beginning to subside--see the new post-Prophet youth generation arising in Iran and the post-Soviet Turkic Republics).

Neil I do think along with you that the Middle East is behind us on the saeculum. On the other hand Pakistan and Bangladesh are on the same saeculum as India (which is very close to ours) and I get a feeling from Malaysia and Indonesia that are close to us on the saeculum and currently in a Unravelling.

But let me provoke you with another possibility, one that I've been hearing alot from intelligence types in the DC community. And this is that much of subSaharan Africa (your cycle number one) may also be now convulsed in a religious awakening. If so, it started a bit later (maybe mid-80s) and is being fired by Christianity more than by Islam. Quite simply, much of subSaharan Africa (Uganda and Nigeria are epicenters) is now gripped in a Christian evangelical upheaval. I would refer you to a recent book by Philip Jenkins, The Next Christendom, as well as some excellent followup articles in the New Republic and elsewhere.

Or a very violent unravelling, sort of similar to the conflict between New Agers and Evangelical Christians in the USA expect a lot more violent.

It maybe is that Northern Countries of Sub-Saharan Africa might on a different saeculum to the Southern Countries (South Africa and it's neighbours). I get a feeling from a limited reading of South Africa and Zimbabwe that they are currently in an Unravelling. They have little of the religious upheaval that is occurring in the more northerly nations to them and currently experiencing a lot of social breakdown that is quite typical of a unravelling.

Yes, Tristan, our society will miss the Silent--their kindness, receptivity to other people's opinions, belief in social justice, and adherence to civil liberties. Of all today's generations, this is the one with the highest "E.Q." (emotional quotient). As they pass on, we'll find ways of replacing what they're taking with them. The new Homeland Generation, soon to be born, perhaps already being born, will "rebel" by filling the artist archetypal role that the Silent have vacated.

Should we repeat George W. Bush's mistake of accepting, without corroboration, that Arafat has in fact died? Whether this will set in motion a 4T in Israel is a question about which Neil and I do not have strong opinions. We'll just have to wait and see. If it does, it could get enmeshed in America's fourth turning.

To Mary T:

Yes, I think there is a long-term rhythm of technological change that beats to the rhythm of the saeculum. Basically, the 2T discredits of economic framework and work-life paradigm of the previous saeculm and discovers new fields for research. In the fluid and entrepreneurial 3T, all kinds of new technologies are invented, tested, and played with. In the 4T crisis, the "winners" among these new innovations are chosen to become the centerpieces of a whole new social and economic infrastructure. And the the 1T, this new infrastructure becomes the gleaming platform of a new golden age of progress and affluence. In this analysis, the 1990s in technology would find its closest parallel in the 1920s--with all kinds of small companies inventing or commericalizing a huge variety of new technologies that no one yet know quite how to handle (from radios, TVs, and autos to vending machines, electric appliances, and phones). These technologies didn't really find their historical and social utility until the 30s and 40s. By the 50s, it had all been distilled down to a few giant companies mass producing these goods according to standard specification and a standard lifestyle that a newly empowered middle class had accepted.

Originally Posted by Sean Love (WJB)

Russia? Some here say the "Great Patriotic War" was actually a 1T! I don't agree.

I agree,
Russia in the 1990's was in a very extreme Unravelling the Great Patriotic War as a clear 4T event.

China? Did their 4T end in 1949 or with the horrible conclusion to the Great Leap Forward?

The Great Leap forward was in a High era, the same era that the Artist Thousand Flowers generation came of age. The Cultural Revolution Era was an Awakening period.

Japan? Many here are inclined to think their 3T only began very recently.

From my research I am confused on Japan, however I did see a transition occurring from a 1T to 2T from the late 1980's to Late 1990's.

The Middle East? Was the Iranian Revolution and the subsequent "Islamic Resurgence" a 2T as most here suspect?

I am convinced now that the Iranian Revolution and Islamic Resurgence was a clear 2T for the Middle East.

The Balkans? J.X. is a strong proponent of WWI and the 90's conflict being 4T there.

The Breakup of Yugoslavia feels like a 3T event to me and sort of reading I am getting from Greece shows a 3T mood there.

Let me respond to Anne's question on the "Comments" thread.

No, Neil and I don't think the Iraq War affects the Gen-X / Millennial boundary at all. Most of the casualties of the war are Gen-X, often troops in their late 20s or older. The kidnapping victims are seldom young.

Let me respond to Kiff's question from the "comments" thread.

In earlier posts, above, I've written about how the crisis is likely to involve a great many factors, joined together in a storm of history. Whether it will be primarily global or domestic remains to be seen.

Originally Posted by William Strauss

Should we repeat George W. Bush's mistake of accepting, without corroboration, that Arafat has in fact died? Whether this will set in motion a 4T in Israel is a question about which Neil and I do not have strong opinions. We'll just have to wait and see. If it does, it could get enmeshed in America's fourth turning.

I dunno if Israel is currently as deep as us in the 3T, the sort of impression of Israel right now is a Early 3T, rather akind to what America was like in the Reagan Years. The sort of change, which has occurred in Israeli policies towards the Arabs, is rather like the change in US policy towards the Soviets from late 1970?s to late 1980?s.

I am convinced that the Palestinans along the rest of the Middle East are only 4-5 years into the unravelling.

Let me respond to Carlo's question from the "comments" thread.

You comment about how you and other Gen Xers are getting "settled into a life routine," and that this appears to be happening at earlier ages, with late-wave Gen Xers getting engaged in their mid-20s.

Neil and I believe that the median marriage age, and age of first childbirth, may be at their oldest apogee now. We expect that, over the next two decades, as Millennials seek the "balanced life," we will see marriages and childbirth occurring a bit earlier--though it's unlikely we'll ever go back to the common age-18 marriages of the late-wave Silent era.

As Gen Xers marry and have children, they become much more politically conservative. Watch out for that one, Democrats.

Let me respond to Elilevin's question on the "comments" thread.

You ask if the recent election was the beginning of the regeneracy. No. A regeneracy is marked by counterentropy, and I sure wouldn't call the 2004 election that.

It sounds like you have some bona fide Millennials in your family.

Do you think Dexters would be the 4T sort of Bovine-Americans?