I was looking for books about the depression of the 1930s and I ran accross this book

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...=UTF8&v=glance

The comments are also very interesting[/code]

So are the "people who read this book also read..."

I speculate that the Great Devaluation will start out as a deflationary depression, then morph into an inflationary depression at PeakOil.

I especially like this one that mgibbons posterd recently:



With all this equity stripping there won't be enough $$ around to drive up oil prices. But we may not contribute that much to the eventual inflation of oil prices once China kicks in economically. I think were are dust in way too many plausible scenarios; ...and the meek shall inherit the earth.

--Croakmore

The author's point seems to be that once the core xers (the "baby busters") replace the baby busters in middle age (the peak earning and spending years) come the 2010s we will likely see a significant economic crisis, worsened one suspects by high taxes on xers to pay for boomer entitlements, the so-called war on terror, and our lunatic debt. This is the point I've been making elsewhere on this forum, and as such I agree fundamentally that there will be an economic crisis of probably global scale in the second phase of the 4t, though I'm not sure it will be quite as dire as the author seems to think. Consumer spending is really the glue holding up our current house of cards (and keeping our codependent relationship with our Asian creditors alive and well), and barring any major external shocks before the coming demographic bust it will continue to hold up until the boomers begin retiring. Once that goes though the whole global house of cards comes tumbling down...I stand by my original prediction in these parts too that the coming economic meltdown will contrary to conventional wisdom be deflationary (like the 1930s) rather than inflationary, and that peak oil won't come until the 2030s or 40s, and bring with it global inflation just like the last 2t.

Originally Posted by millie86

I was looking for books about the depression of the 1930s and I ran accross this book

http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg...=UTF8&v=glance

The comments are also very interesting[/code]

There's a bit of a problem considering books like this one from our perspective on our website. I haven't read the book, but based on the descriptions it looks like it is a rehash of Harry Dent's thesis of a boom that will end towards the end of this decade and be followed by a depression.

The reason why this is important is if you just consider a book like this predicting a depression in ~2010 you would likely think, aha somebody else who independently sees a crisis coming on the S&H "schedule". But it turns out this is not true. Assuming this author was influenced by Dent, what he is propossing comes from Dent. But Dent explicitly used S&H's generations in the formulation of his cycle arguments that suggest a depression around 2010. His work was intitially published in 1993 and were based on the work in Generations, in which S&H forecasted a crisis climax in the early 2020's with the start of what we would later call a 4T about a decade earlier.

Dent's spending wave shows its absolute peak in 2003, when the 1957 cohort (when births peaked) turned 46. However births didn't really fall precipitiously until after 1964, so one would could extend the spending wave peak into a "plateau" running from 2003 to 2010. When you combine the Spending Wave's 2003-2010 pre-depression economic peak with the S&H forecast of a crisis start in the early 2010's, you get the 2007-2010 target that Dent advanced.

Dent's original forecast of the economic peak and subsequent depression was probably pushed back because of S&H-type generational considerations.

So the forecast in this book of a depression in ~2010 is not an independent forecast that supports a later 4T date, but rather, is itself dependent on that generational forecast.

Latest on Housing Bubble. This could be the equivalent of the late Twenties stock bubble.
http://www.contracostatimes.com/mld/...0895732.htm?1c

And for what a Depression is like...
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic4888.html

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

I speculate that the Great Devaluation will start out as a deflationary depression, then morph into an inflationary depression at PeakOil.

I do not see the circumstances occurring in next 40-45 years that will lead to high levels of inflation. Peak Oil just is not going to happen anyway.

The great devaluation will be deflationary depression, it's cause will be retiring Boomers cashing in their homes and stocks and many midlife X'ers will not be able to afford to buy them. I am predicting on this happening around the 2008/09 Financial Year.

Although the upcoming economic depression for economies like America and Australia's will not be as bad as the 1930's one. However for economies like China it will be as bad as the 1930's, China's economy depends a lot on US consumer spending.

Neverless to say there will be several years of delation; negative economy growth and unemployment will soar to anywhere from 15-25%. If the Republicans control the presidency and congress when this happens, they will be discredited for a whole generation (likewise for the Australian Liberal and National Parties).

I recommend selling your stocks and paying off your houses before 2008/09. If you are considering getting into the housing market, my recommendation is not to until the market bottoms out during the 2010's.

Originally Posted by Tristan Jones

I recommend selling your stocks and paying off your houses before 2008/09. If you are considering getting into the housing market, my recommendation is not to until the market bottoms out during the 2010's.

Too late! I just closed on my house April 21. And its value seems to have jumped $15-20,000 since I signed the purchase agreement on St. Paddy's Day! Un-fucking-real. What I think will happen is that the paper value of my home will soar in the next few years as the equity-rich Californians form another 1989-style convoy up to the PNW... and crash around 2011 as the first big Boomer cohort (1946-50) hits 65 and begins retiring.

Originally Posted by Tristan Jones

Peak Oil just is not going to happen anyway.

How do you know this?

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Tristan Jones

Peak Oil just is not going to happen anyway.

How do you know this?

Good question. I was wondering that myself.

I expect that the themes of poverty, making do, and community will reappear. However, history never repeats itself exactly. Boomers being in charge, rather than Missionaries, by itself implies that The Great Devaluation will play out differently from the Great Depression.

Equity strippers are hocking their homes, often to pay off old extravagances or to keep up appearances. Debt of any kind makes possession precarious, especially upon an asset that does not provide an income. Debt to purchase income-producing property isn't as troublesome...

If there is any sudden meltdown in the economy, then repossessions will accelerate any devaluation of property. But savings won't be there to allow people to pick up the bargains until creditors are themselves burned...

I predict that after the Great Devaluation of real estate, people will be unable to buy real estate except for 100% cash payment. We will see much demolition of unsalable property, perhaps to raise the value of existing property, and people will find themselves crowded into real estate much as depicted in the post-revolutionary times in Doctor Zhivago, whether through revolutionary or reactionary (the rule of crony capitalists) decisions.

Originally Posted by Croakmore

I especially like this one that mgibbons posterd recently:



With all this equity stripping there won't be enough $$ around to drive up oil prices. But we may not contribute that much to the eventual inflation of oil prices once China kicks in economically. I think were are dust in way too many plausible scenarios; ...and the meek shall inherit the earth.

--Croakmore

I thought that chart was referring to the equity of strippers, as in...you know...strippers.

Originally Posted by Milo

Originally Posted by Croakmore

I especially like this one that mgibbons posterd recently:

[Image Snipped]

With all this equity stripping there won't be enough $$ around to drive up oil prices. But we may not contribute that much to the eventual inflation of oil prices once China kicks in economically. I think were are dust in way too many plausible scenarios; ...and the meek shall inherit the earth.

--Croakmore

I thought that chart was referring to the equity of strippers, as in...you know...strippers.

Well then. 1995 would've been the time to buy, BUY, BUY! 8)

Retirement's Unraveling Safety Net
Social Security Is Least of Newer Generations' Worries

Originally Posted by Mr. Dale Russakoff in the Wa[i

Po[/i]]This becomes clear in the company of Junior Paugh, his three children, all in their fifties, and five grandchildren, ages 18 to 35. Their three-generation journey has taken them from Appalachia to suburbia, from government relief to an assembly line to a management track at Sears. Yet, despite the apparent progress, their expectations are sinking: The grandchildren, all three generations agree, have it worse than their parents and grandparents -- most dramatically in their prospects for retirement, when all gains and losses come home to roost.

Until now, financial planners have likened retirement security to a three-legged stool: employee pensions, personal savings and Social Security.

For the Paugh grandchildren, the savings leg is effectively gone, reflecting a plunging personal savings rate nationally. In place of Junior Paugh's pension, they have 401(k) plans, under which they -- not employers -- bear the risk and responsibility of investing enough for retirement. And under Bush's Social Security proposal, their promised benefit could drop significantly.

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Book - copyright 2009. The Great Depression Of Debt Survival Techniques For Every Investor by Warren Brussee. (author of The Second Great Depression). It was a joy to find this depressing book. Regarding the U.S. economy, the author predicts that this depression will last till the year 2020, and that it will likely be inflationary. He suggests that the U.S. Gov't will eventually forbid layoffs, but permit companies to decrease hours and pay. Only critical infrastructure will be repaired. The author suggests that investing in alternative energy will be the ticket out of this hole. Afterwards, the USA will be humbled, with a post-Depression period that will be a rather grim 1T. Included is a chapter that compares the present to the Great Depression of the 1930s.

BTW, the dust jacket indicates that Brussee has been an engineer, plant manager, and engineering manager. So he isn't a member of the two groups who are the last to notice reality, politicians and economists.

The Great Depression Of Debt.... "This depression will be very long and hard. The Great Depression really didn't end until the fifties, at least as far as the stock market goes, and it is difficult to determine whether World War II shortened or lengthened that depression. Fifteen or 20 years would be a reasonable estimate for how long this depression will last. So, for many people, a third of their working career may be spent living through this depression...."

The Great Depression of Debt. "In just one generation, we had converted from an economy based on savings and hard work to a debt-driven economy, where people spent whatever was needed to support the lifestyle they believed they deserved, whether they could afford it or not....People often used the extra money they got from the reduction of their savings rate and their increase of debt to buy SUVs that got terrible gas mileage or to purchase large homes with little or no down payment. These purchases not only increased their debt, but also put in place higher energy and maintenance costs for future years....

Debt....Chapter 6....What Else May Deepen the Depression...The author discussed: Wars in Iraq and Afghanistan; Terrorists; Energy Prices; Drop in Dollar Value; Record Budget Gap; Balance of Payments; Inflation; Interest Rates.