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Posted by: Mary T '42
Date posted: Thu May 17 8:30:51 2001
Subject: Paradigm Shifts...
Message:
The dictionary says paradigm means pattern or example. But in group dynamics terms it is the accepted way that most people think things work--be it a business, an academic subject or society as a whole. When new ideas pop up, they are fit into the accepted pattern as well as possible and if they don't fit they are generally thrown aside as an unimportant anomalie(especially by the group leadership). Eventually some free thinker will come up with a new pattern in which the anomalies fit nicely. When the group finally adopts the new pattern, you have a paradigm shift.

I'm sorry IC, I did misunderstand you. But I'm not sure that changes my argument. The reactions to Bob Kerry's revelations show that feelings about Vietnam are still intense 25 years later. During the awakening public debate raged over foreign policy and how to improve society, but the generations of that time had no widespread feeling that our government or our society was fatally flawed.

As you noted, I was trying to give examples of wars and armed conflicts that fell outside of S&H's T4T Crisis periods. Others here have pointed out a few T4T periods that didn't end up with armed conflict associated with them. But I'm talking around your point. Your right that such widespread changes don't occur without intense reactions from all sides. Some people have a lot invested in the old paradigm. I have been astonished during the '90's to watch my GI Mom, a life long conservative Republican become a stanch supporter of Clinton, and avid opponent of W.

Last winter I read all the Harry Potter books to see just what these popular books are saying to the young Millennials. One of the things that Ms Rawling said right out loud at the end of book 4 what that the adult generations were going to have to put aside their differences and animosities in order to work together on the larger conflict. Personal agendas will be put aside.

An interesting remark about 'if we had the Lost and GI's in control during WWI'. Most historians consider WWI and WWII as two parts of the same conflict. So the generations of 1918 took that conflict as far as they were willing to go, and then in a very real way waited for the correct generational alignment to finish it up.

I agree Tim that energy issues look like a pretty good candidate for T4T trigger. I was big into 'The Third Wave' 20 years ago which argued that the huge industrial age countries were likes were likely to break down into smaller post-industrial countries. So I've always looked at Garreau's 'Nine Nation's' as the fault lines that would apply if the US reached that point. When the Soviet Union was breaking up, I grew very irate at American journalists and others who thought that the Russians had no right to try to hold together what they could. I asked several people if they would feel the same way if it was the US that was breaking up. They thought I was nuts.

I am unfamiliar with Huntington's civilization paradigm. What is that all about?

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Thu May 17 21:38:05 2001
Subject: Paradign Shift-Cold War to Huntington's
Message:
Read Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations And the
Remaking of World Order. To summarize, with the end of the Cold War international politics will be defined by culture rather than by ideology. The largests cultural groupings are civilizations. This implies ethnic/religious conflicts. (Also, Huntington predicts that trade blocks will work well only between members of the same civilization-which doesn't fit into globalization).

Posted by: Virgil K. Saari
Date posted: Fri May 18 5:07:09 2001
Subject: Paradigms Found
Message:
Try the influential The Structure of Scientific Revolutions by Mr. Thomas S. Kuhn, 1962 which was popular in my days of education at college in the 1960's and seems to have been used all about the West for one view of the paradigm model. HTH

Posted by: IC
Date posted: Fri May 18 13:46:00 2001
Subject: Crises and Time
Message:
Hi Mary,

I have several observations.........

I believe your example of Kerry supports my theory. I don't feel for a moment that the so called outrage against Kerry (actually, all ginned up by the press) was a delayed or continued reaction to the Vietnam conflict. It was, in fact, singling out an "individual" as a very evil person. This was not carried out as a reaction to anyone's concern about an event that occurred over 30 years ago. It was, in fact, first a media show and second an attack on a high-profile individual. This would never have occurred 30 years ago. The only Vietnam reaction that comes close is the Mi-Lai (sp) incident involving Lt. Calley. At that point we were about 25 years from the last crises. It was just not "the thing to do" to slash and burn your war heroes. We still had a significant degree of community spirit then -- and certainly community spirit toward the people who had saved our collective butts (war heroes).

Regarding your comment about the Lost & GI's during WWI, again, I believe you make my point. As you indicated, the generation timing was not appropriate for a crises at WWI. That's what brings about the crises, the reaction to the event -- not necessarily the event.

Anyway, I do firmly believe in the T4T theory, but I also believe it is deeply rooted in the length of time from the last crises. I assume you are a Boomer. Vietnam surely has a different meaning to you than it would to my daughter, who a late Gen X'r. What she knows about Vietnam, she read about. She did not live it. So, the impact on her is not measurable. But, I suspect, it is with you to a much greater degree.

IC

Posted by: IC
Date posted: Fri May 18 18:57:42 2001
Subject: More On Crises & Time
Message:
Mary,

Let me add another comment to foster my theory. The cold war had the effect of prolonging the break-down to the individual over the last 40 or so years (we focused on bomb shelters, Star Wars, building more and larger bombs, etc). With the break-up and collapse of the Soviet Union (and removal of another threat to our society), we could again focus on the individual.

Have you noticed the acceleration of PC over the last decade? Think there might be a correlation to the removal of a major societal distraction?

IC

Posted by: Tim Walker '56 (Tim Walker '56 )

Date posted: Sat May 19 9:53:12 2001
Subject: Acceleration Of PC
Message:
Perhaps this is partly due to older generations fading from
public life, particularly as Boomers replaced a retiring Artist generation.

Posted by: IC
Date posted: Sat May 19 20:39:28 2001
Subject: Crises & Time
Message:
Tim,

Yes, I believe that is the case (older generations fading). The fading generations know what it is like to fight for survival. They experienced the crises first hand. They can probably picture in their mind what it might have been like to have Germans sending out directives from Washington. You can read about it, see movies about it, but none of these have the impact of living it and seeing it for yourself.

It is my opinion that the crises stirs the very soul of our survival instincts. Instincts that have enabled our species to become the dominant player on the planet that have developed from over 150K years of evolution. Think in your mind about the worse crises that has ever happened to you personally. Most likely, you will do *whatever* is necessary to see that it is not repeated. But, if you read or hear about it occurring to someone else -- well.

In any event, this I believe is at the core of T4T theory that leads to a crises. The more years and generations that pass the less concerned society is about eminent survival threats. So, with idle time and energy they focus inward. It is the inward focus, in combination with the generational chemistry, that leads to the turnings. BUT, the primary element is the length of time from the prior crises.

IC

Posted by: IC
Date posted: Sat May 19 21:12:44 2001
Subject: Society Disentigrates
Message:
Tim,

And, oh by the way, not only is the time phenomena cyclical (about every saeculum), it also is trending. Each cycle does not return to the same level as before. So, over several saeculum things deteriorate. Can you name a society since recorded history that has dominated for more than 400 to 500 years? They disintegrate!

IC

Posted by: Mary T '42
Date posted: Sun May 20 12:00:37 2001
Subject: 3 Saeculum Cycles
Message:
The first cyclical theory of history that I ran into in the early '90s, before I ran into S&H, was buried in a parenting book that was talking about dominent mothers (or nurturers) raising dominant children. This theory argued that societies have a life cycle of 200 to 250 years. Even the Romans were actually two cycles--the Republic and the Empire. He espoused three periods in the life cycle that I have since equated with Saeculums--the first is focused on nation building, the second on business, and the third is a culmination or flowering that encompasses prosperity, high academic achievement, and decadence. This is one reason why I think about the possibility of the nation devolving into some of the component Nine Nations.

Thanks Tim for the title of Huntington's book. I'm wondering if this is one of the books that question whether democracies are capable of warring with each other, since it hasn't happened before.

IC, you seem to think that the Cold War has delayed the onset of T4T, giving passage of time as a greater component than the passing of generations. Or perhaps you feel that Silents, who didn't have a voting voice in setting up the last paradigm aren't fully invested in the ideas that they imbibed with their Mother's milk.

Your point about PC is interesting. It seems to me that politically correct positions are ideas that have been cobbled onto the paradigm since it was crafted during the last crisis. The acceleration of PC is part and parcel of the Unraveling. T3T is in essence a national debate about the alternatives available for our future direction. T4T trigger will be anything that causes a majority of Americans to coalesce around one particular direction. One of the most interesting elements of S&H's theory is that the initial direction is the winner of the various Boomer agendas. But the paradigm that emerges at the end of the Crisis is always substantially different from the original agenda. I think Millennials and Xgens will relook at all of the politically correct positions and give them a pass or fail vote in light of what is happening during the crisis.

I am one of the few Silents that posts regularly here. But you are right that the Vietnam War was a personal experience for me. My husband (also a '42 Silent) left for Nam the first time the day after my oldest daughter's first birthday in 1966. He left for his second tour 6 weeks after my son was born in 1968. He missed a third tour in 1971 only because Nixon began pulling troups out.

Posted by: IC
Date posted: Sun May 20 12:49:00 2001
Subject: Crises & Time
Message:
Mary,

Oh, you are absolutely correct. I firmly believe passage of time (since the last crises) is a much greater component on societal impact than generation interaction. If I were to ask you, how you feel about your husband leaving for war and then ask another mother who had just recently had her first child's birthday, but whose husband was still at home, both of you would probably say no. But, I suspect it would bring up much different and stronger emotions in your case. Emotions, that if carried to actions, might bring about much different results as well. It has very little to do with the generation and very much to do with your first hand experience. So, the same for war, famines and other crises.

In my opinion, PC is not so much about alternatives for future direction as much as it is narcissism and individualism. I can not think of a single example of PC that does not involve either the feelings a person or small group may have as a result of some action or expression, irregardless of the good or bad outcome that it might have for ALL members of society. So, it puts the individual or small group ahead of the society as a whole. The cold war probably delayed the full onset of PC, but it still came into its own during the 3T, right on schedule.

By the way, it is interesting that you mentioned the book regarding life cycles. I have recently added From Dawn to Decadence to my reading list. I saw the author, Jacque Barzun, who is 93 years old, on Book TV last week. One of his theories is that we are in the age of decadence and he describes it as part of the cycle in his book that covers the last 500 or so years. So, everything in T4T is not new. I believe T4T just does an excellent job of condensing it down to a simple, easily understand theory.

Those are my thoughts.

IC