Mr. K., writes, "However, I have always thought they got the Lost/GI boundary wrong, because it should
have been 1904 or 1905 (which actually fits better with their sense of when the Awakening
was over.) But in any case, as I discovered researching this myself, it's a very SOFT boundary. The 1901-4 cohorts include archetypal Losts like Lindbergh and John Steinbeck, and archetypal GIs like Lou Gehrig. Thus, it isn't surprising to find some Hero types now in their young twenties."

I'm glad you've brought this Lost.G.I. boundary up, Mr. K., because I was flatout sure that, at least, the Lost boundary included 1902 (Lindberg). And after I read the latest Lindberg biography, an excellent book by Scott Berg, who for the first time was allowed access to everything by the family, I was utterly convince that Lindberg was indeed a member of the Lost generation.

Then a funny thing happened during my research, and I had no choice but to conclude that S&H are right.

And I can prove it in a very fun and interesting way. And it reveals just how important these lines are in determining just how a person views life, and to what extent life allows them to achieve.

I'll post my findings later today, or tomorrow. Watch for it.

BTW, thanks again, Mr. Hudson, for you data. How much would you like for doing the house. Perhaps we could take up a collection.

<snip>
First, even though the Palastinian Authority aids and abets terrorists, Powell urged Sharon to meet with Arafat. Does this sound like all-out war?

Second, Bush said today we will "hunt down" the terrorists, as if they were public enemies on the most wanted list. We don't have to hunt down Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. They're on the map. Does this sound like all-out war?
</snip>

This is not going to be WWII. There will not be all-out warfare against another society. In my opinion, if I see signs of that happening, it would be the signal for a failed, Civil War-style Crisis. This Crisis will be, in part, about the U.S. leading other societies to a world in which they can create for themselves the wealth and opportunity that we already have. And about the U.S. becoming a society that will inspire them to do so. I see and hear signs all around me that people of all political stripes understand that that is the task we face. There is disagreement on how to accomplish it, but surprisingly little dissension on what needs to be accomplished.

These goals aren't going to be accomplished by a WWII-style mobilization. The fighting will be covert operations. The economics and politics will be more important.

After the 1929 Crash, there was no consensus on what to do about the nations problems. What did exist, however, was a consensus on what problems were being faced. The path to take in solving them (socialist or fascist,
totalitarian or democratic) was not agreed upon until later.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: neiltice on 2001-09-14 13:04 ]</font>

I as well as others have suggested a comparison between 911 (that handle seems to be sticking, a 3T indicator, IMO) and John Brown's raid. In rereading the section in T4T
dealing with prior 4T catalysts (p. 261), I found this passage:

...in 1859, John Brown's raid at herper's Ferry (and especially his subsequent trial and execution) touched off a paroxysm of abolitionist fervor. "How vast the change in men's hearts!" cried Wendell Phillips. "Un-
born deeds, things soon to be, project their shapes around me," mused Walt Whitman of "this incredible rush and heat, this strange ecstatic fever of dreams." Even so, Brown's uprising did not polarize opinion as much as his aging backers had hoped. Afterward, the nation settled back into the sullen brooding for which the 1850's were notorious.

My point is that it's possible to have 4T feelings before the 4T begins. Many of you are right, there has been a mood shift. The question then becomes, will it stick? My gut says not yet, unless we have a series of chain reaction events on the scale of seccession or financial/economic meltdown. I don't see signs of that yet, but the coming weeks will tell the story. I believe we're almost, but not quite, there. I figure S&H's target year of 2005 is going to be very close to dead on. That gives us 3, 4, maybe 5 years. That's not very far off at all. The Shrub (Bush) may well end up as Hoover.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: dbookwoym on 2001-09-14 13:00 ]</font>

"...The Shrub (Bush) may well end up as Hoover."

Then again, he may not. The man has depths and capabilities some of you are completely ignorant of...

Cecil

Cecil, you're right, we can't presume to know who will play which roles in the years to come.

Incidentally, I'm glad you mentioned the diversity among Muslims. I really hope that the unthinking hateful reactions against the innocent stop now before it gets any worse. I've already learned from a friend of mine that a mosque in Dallas was firebombed and shot at. (no one was hurt, thank God)

I have long held that we will have a "faux" Crisis early on and a much later "real" Crisis after 2010-2015 in an environmental mode. You can dig it up in some of the environmental/Crisis threads in the paleo-T4T site. HTH

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Virgil K. Saari on 2001-09-14 15:03 ]</font>

Earlier today, I posted this on another thread:
"Well, I've just been reading posts the last day or two. I think I still stand by my initial gut feelings that this could be the trigger, the catalyst, but we really won't know until hindsight kicks in, will we? What I got from S&H's recent post is the same.

I liked what someone said about 911 being more like 1929 than 1941. I wasn't born until 2 years after the Crash, so I never felt that firsthand, but my parents were married and my older siblings born by then, and I heard many stories about it growing up. Most of those relatives were alive in Nov. 1963, and they all agreed their reactions to that were very similar to 1929. So, while the 911 attack conjures up similarities with 12-7-41's attack as to the event itself, I think it's effect on the Turnings is more like those darkening months after the Crash of 1929."

So, I'm glad to read today's post from William Strauss in this thread. Perhaps it's because I am older and the younger posters may just blow off what I say, but I've been frustrated in not seeming to be able to communicate just how long and arduous a Crisis is to live through! :smile:

More later, I'm still reading.....

Barb '31

I was looking for signs today that this disaster is NOT the trigger.

Someone already posted above that there are a lot of comments about not blaming Arab Americans for the attacks. Columnists here in Seattle have hit this point repeatedly, and I heard both Clinton and Bush second the idea. Not that I think this necessarily means we are in a 3T mindset (that is, I hope even in 4T mode we would not repeat the WWII internment camps mistake), but it is suggestive.

Another, similar point. Today in Seattle there was a rally of "rememberance" that included public prayers conducted by a minister, a rabbi, and a Muslim religious leader (sorry, I don't know the right term). First of all, all three prayed for "justice and peace," and also the Muslim leader's introduction got the biggest burst of applause. Here in Seattle, anyway, there seems to be a strong leaning towards (2T and 3T issues of) anti-racism, tolerance, and peace.

There were also a few letters to the editor today pointing out how US policy in the Middle East has hurt those countries.

Seattle is a very PC town, but it looks like the mood here is somber but not essentially different in attitude than it was before. That is, the reaction is consistent with a 3T mindset.

Barbara, I've been wondering why you haven't posted! I for one would love to hear more about living through a crisis, and in the coming weeks, whether or not you think we are there.

Thanks, Anne. I'm still trying to ingest the posts in this thread before mine (very good reading, and I enjoy yours, too), and I'll post as soon as through.

Barb, we very much appreciate the perspective of one who lived through almost all of the last 4T. We *don't* get it. We can't possibly get it, it's not our job. If we could get it, it would never happen again and we would just stay in 3T forever. I am very torn about this. I look forward to an increased sense of community, but I am very worried about my family. Intellectually I know there wil be extreme hardship, but I don't really know what that means. All I know is that I wish I had been less of a workaholic and had travelled more during the 3T.

My parents are Silents, just a few years older than you. They are immigrants from India. They were born during the global depression and recall WWII. When my mother was eight her family's property was taken and her whole family was violently booted out of what is now Pakistan. She recalls rivers of blood flowing through trains as she crouched down to hide with only her ten year old brother as a protector. She was lucky in that her family all survived and was reunited on the other side of the partition. She never speaks of this, I found out from my dad. My paternal grandfather was a lawyer and, post-revolution, a federal judge in India. He knew Gandhi, Nehru and the rest. So, my parents were little kids in another 4T era, but old enough to remember what that was like. They have flourished during the 3T, travelling to all kinds of exotic places, learning all about new technology and doing what elder adaptives are supposed to do during a 3T. On Monday I emailled my dad just to say, hi, I know you're busy, drop me a line when you get a chance. I spoke with him briefly on Tues, but we were freaked out and trying to locate relatives who work in Manhattan. Today I got an email in response. He sounds exhausted, and more sad than I have ever heard him sound in my entire life. I think it's because he gets what is about to happen in a way that I can't possibly get.

Oops, my parents are actually a few years younger than you, Barbara. Mom and dad are 38 and 36 Silents respectively.

I have been talking to older GI's who went through the last Crisis this week and I
get the same sense of a tired sadness...not anger or fear on their part just melancholy (which I share).

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Virgil K. Saari on 2001-09-14 15:55 ]</font>

I have an enormous amount of respect for Strauss and Howe and the research they have done, and I've written a couple of op-ed pieces in the past that cited their theories. I do have one big problem with the Fourth Turning theory, however -- the apocalyptic, fatalistic side of it.

I agree with the authors that there are seasons to history and periodic challenges that must be met. But I have a philosophical disagreement with them over the fate of events. I simply don't believe that every event in our nation's history was inevitable and predictable. Generations help define leaders, but great leaders are made of much more. It was not inevitable that a Lincoln would rise to power, nor FDR.

With proper national leadership, I think it's entirely possible that the incredible wealth, power and cultural influence of the U.S. at this time could lead to a "3rd to 1st" seasonal transition. A successfully-managed mini-crisis could very well lead Americans to reject 3rd Turning values and avert a 4th Turning altogether. As an American, I'm genetically programmed to be so optimistic.

Getting back to the current crisis, I believe that the single biggest problem with Fourth Turning prophecy, and therefore any attempts to shoe horn current events into that mold, is the way all Baby Boomers are lumped together. This is the same mistake Pat Cadell made throughout the 1970s and 80s, trying to define and harness the political power of a generation that was (and still is) all over the ideological map.

George W. Bush may be calling today for a war to rid the world of evil, but can we be so sure that John Edwards, Evan Bayh or Jesse Jackson Jr. feels the same way? Unless the messianic fervor of the Baby Boomers is driven in a single direction, it will not have adequate steam to overcome the power of the Silents.

By the way, in this crisis, the single most impressive public figures have been Colin Powell, Rudy Giuliani and Joe Biden -- all silents. Why, again, did we pass over this generation of leadership? Maybe in 2004 we can right that mistake.

Hello again. Several observations.

First, there's absolutely no reason why we couldn't define the beginning of the Civil War crisis as 1859 (J Brown) or even 1857 (Dred Scott). I'd certainly go for 1859 at least.

Second, things are getting sticky. The Europeans are already questioning our "war" rhetoric. We may face tougher choices than we thought.

A few voices are beginning to emerge claiming that this was our fault. The topic for an NPR talk show this morning was, "What have we done to inspire such hatred?"

I continue to feel, to quote a great prophet, that "All is changed, changed utterly." Yet I am worried that Washington is deciding that an invasion of Iraq is the answer, because that's the contingency plan that they have.

Neisha, "torn" is just the right word! I know that the 4T is inevitable, and sometimes I feel this sense of urgency, "let's get this going already!" But at the same time I'm frightened of what life will be like, 20 years of uncertainty and turmoil, with only a hope--not a guarantee--that a "high" will ensue. This recent disaster has only reinforced that feeling. There seem to be so many things that could go wrong.

In the beginning as posts began filling ? Is the Fourth Turning Coming?? it seemed to me some people were trying too hard to stuff current events into the mold of the last 4T. This was also evident outside the forum. As horrendous as this attack was we are fortunate that the terrorists executed a 3T attack. An attack on symbols of U.S. wealth and power. It truly would have been a 4T Pearl Harbor-like event if, for instance, they had crashed the hijacked jets into critical points of our national electrical distribution grid.
We may have stepped through a door into 4T, but it hasn?t slammed shut behind us? yet.
We need another eight to ten years for the generations to mature. It is too early for the 4T, but the feeling, the feeling that our society has turned a corner is there. I can only agree that we will have to see how this plays out.

I too am glad that I decided to check the discussion out today. The authors insightful comments generated other insightful comments which, to my way of thinking, is always a plus. For the most part, I just enjoy reading what other very intelligent, very thoughtful people have to add to S&H's work.

Reminding us of the continued influence of Silent's Powell and Cheney in the administration, and if this is the catalyst, to remember it's only the beginning, were both good points. Making the connection between 911 and the stock market crash of 1929 is a particularly good point. If I understand the theory right, the crash was a catalystic event that changed the mood of the country. But, as I have said before, the regeneracy, or consensus on what to do about the perceived threat to society, came later.

I very strongly believe that this is analogous to where we are now. 911 was the the 21st century version of the crash of 1929. (Or in my personal opinion, one of the events) As people start to realize how amorphous this idea of making "war on terrorism" in general actually is, the consensus will begin to unravel. But even so, the mood will have changed. The perception of reality and culture will have been altered. And that's the whole point, right?

There is no way you can convince me now that most people will perceive this in the same way as they did the Gulf War, the OJ circus, or the Clinton impeachment mess. It's hard to imagine that next week we'll all just think, "that was sad but oh well... I can't wait for the new 'Survivor' to start!"

No, whatever happens, something has changed in this country.

It was around 9 when I first heard about the attacks. It put me into so much freaking shock I almost felt nauseated and wished I could throw up, because the first thing I thought was "fourth turning". I felt scared enough to toss until the time MTV came back on again the next day. We talked about this throughout just every class in school. A few kids from the football team were saying we should destroy Aghanistan. Many more of us were saying they were glad to see the U.S. government so directly attacked. This one boy Ricardo was saying "ALL RIGHT! ALL RIGHT!" with his hands flat up and saying how "the Establishment" had finally come close to coming to an end. One boy was yelling at all these kids saying they should be ashamed and shit and they should be loving their country and backing the government and Bush. What a narc. A few girls were crying. I just felt scared. Normally I wouldn't mind too much about something like this. It wasn't that I was scared BECAUSE the towers had been destroyed and the Pentagon crashed and Middle Easterners were threatening lives. I only got scared because I was thinking of what it would mean if it were the end of the third turning. The thought of the Unravelling being over was strangling, it was like if this was 4T I'd never see an Unravelling again. Is everyone going to move to sucking up the little government's ass? Is alternative music (or alternative pop music and rap or whatever you listen to) going to disappear? Will people push for "sex distinctions" and even the kids turn into prudes and narcs? I spent like three hours talking with Sharon on the phone even after school got out and told her why it freaked me so much. She knows I participate on an Internet site about generations and that there's this Strauss/Howe theory and a book called T4T but this was the first time I explained to her what the theory was all about. She said the 4T thing with everyone fighting for their country is bullshit and really not to worry about that. It seemed that most of the shock there was was about the Twintowers being gone forever and individuals being killed by the terrorists. But for me it went much deeper. While a lot of kids were celebrating how the Pentagon had been crashed I couldn't join them in being happy. I'm kind of unique at my school because I'm the only one who's read T4T. It was like I knew something that they didn't and so I couldn't be freaking happy. This was so sick. There seemed to be the same passionate anti-America attitude (among the teens, not the teachers many of whom said go to war) as there was when Clinton bombed Kosovo. I just couldn't sleep, it was like, dude, this foreign attack against the United States America was just the beginning of a radical revolution where America was supposedly supposed to head the other way. It's just so hard to desern how uncomfortable I really feel because in my case it's about the 4T culture aspect rather than the individuals who were killed. I couldn't interpret my own response in the same way you'd interpret those of everyone else. I'm still wrestling with how I feel about this. More later.

-Craig

One more thing. S&H's essay actually made me feel a little better about all of this. I have been struggling with the shock and the grief like most everyone else, but I've also been concerned about the direction our society was going to take with Bush in charge during the start of a possible 4T. I was frightened at the idea that the total war could happen now rather than later. But the ever-so wise authors point by point analysis calmed my fears about our political future. Bush is probably more like Hoover, no matter how high his approval ratings are right not. I'm still confident that once the nation realizes that "terrorism" can't simply be eradicated by brute force, and that more will have to be done, (and heaven forbid the economy slips into a recession) the consensus will fall apart. Then, we'll be ready to move on to the Grey Champion. Thanks S&H for that.

Another thing. I've noticed how hard the networks are pushing to make us all get ready to go to war. I'm starting to get the impression that alot of these talking heads are more interested in proving that they're just as great, if not greater, than the "GREATEST GENERATION." It's like their saying, "see dad, we're not the spoiled, whiny, self-righteous, hypocritical babies you accused of us being. We're just as tough and brave as you are, see?!"

Well, Craig, although I think this event is the catalyst, Strauss & Howe say we cannot be absolutely sure yet, and they are right. Though it sure looks, smells and feels like aa 4T, this may just be a preview, and there may be a few more years of 3T (though, personally I doubt it). It will only be in retrospect that we can look back and say for certain that yes, the attack on the WTC and the Pentagon was the catalyst. Besides, Craig, take heart. Even during a 4T, there will be non-mainstream groups of like-minded individuals such as yourself who don't go along with the bland, civic-minded, and patriotic status quo. I too will miss certain aspects of 3T culture, and already do: music appears to have already made the transition, and movies are swiftly doing the same. Television, no doubt, will soon follow.

But every turning has both its downside and its upside. You may not like all aspects of 4T culture, but surely there will be things about Unravelling culture you'll be glad to see the end of. Besides, you're young enough that you will still most likely be around to see the next Unravelling (from your posts, I suspect you would like the Awakening as well). For myself, at best, I *might* live to see the very beginning of the next Awakening, if even that.

Don't be so quick to judge what the Crisis will feel like. I have doubts about it myself, but how can I prejudge that I won't like it when I have never lived through one? It might not be as dull as you might think. If it were, surely all those old folks wouldn't be reminiscing about it all the time. Besides, in time, you might grow to even *like* 4T pop culture. Age does strange things to people.

Switching subjects, I think Stauss and Howe should remarket "The Fourth Turning." I think at a time like this, it may capture more attention than it did in 1997 and even hit the bestseller lists. It's not that difficult for most people to read. Bill and Neil, have you thought of doing this? (You may want to include a preface or do some minor updating). I got this idea because I, too, have pulled my copy of the book off my shelf and started to reread it. Seems like everyone here is doing the same.

Craig:

I wonder if you have ever seen any of the following movies: Mr. Roberts, A League of Their Own, Twelve Angry Men, The Best Years of Our Lives. They are about the last crisis and the beginning of the last High. I too will miss the Awakening and the Unravelling for as long as I live (especially the former); but I think those films might persuade you that there are other kinds of social life that are just as inspiring, if not more so, than what you have lived through to date.

Furthermore--it's not one way or the other. We can, to repeat, have a good Fourth Turning or a very bad one. It depends on us. It means we have to try to pay attention.

David K '47

Craig, I know what you mean. All I have known has been Awakening (the bad 70's aspect, which for me meant losing a lot of Play-doh and tiny Legos in the bright yellow shag carpeting) and Unravelling. Mostly Unravelling. Even if we're still in 3T (which I doubt), we definately know that one of the big hallmarks of a 3T, cheap and easy travel, is a thing of the past. What else will die? Some of it will be good, I never did like South Park. But, there will be a lot of sacrifice. I can't even conceptualize this because I have never lived through an era where people were lauded for sacrifice. It has always been about each person getting as much as they can personally get. The idea of community and self-sacrifice for the common good is very appealling. But, I don't really know what that means. Barbara knows, my parents know, and they are full of warnings for us. There must be things that we'll miss about the 3T, but we don't really know what they are. It's sort of like in the summer when you're aching to wear some fall clothes even though you know that summer clothes are the most comfortable of all your clothes. Does this make any sense? Eric Meece speaks so fondly of the Awakening. Will Xers sound like this about the Unravelling. I am totally rambling, but there is this stand-up comic who does this really funny bit about Xers as grandparents. One of the best lines is, hey, you kids seen my Dr. Dre CD, come back here, you kids.

Ack. Maybe we should all start stocking up on whatever frivolous 3T goody we have become addicted. There has to be some way to calm our nerves.

The 911 tragedy seems to me to be, not necessarily equated with Pearl Harbor, although similarities may be, and have been, drawn, but rather, I personally feel that it should be compared to the start of the Great Depression. It is the event that will temper the behaviours and the culture of the Millenials. As a Millenial myself, I have found that the reaction amongst Millenials are drastically different from the reactions of the older generations. I just returned to my high school to visit my teachers before starting college, and the atmosphere was completely different from what was broadcast over the TV. The media portrays this as a tragedy, and also assign symbols to the buildings being bombed, which I personally see as a very boomer thing to do. They are also very focused on the human side of things, for example, the small stories of heroism and tragic deaths. Yet, while the high schoolers do feel this grief and even outrage, there is also an underlying feeling of huge responsibility. Already the seniors are talking of a draft and are trying to learn to prepare for it. It seems that everybody has been injected with a large dose of reality. For if it were to truly become an all out war, while the Gen-Xers will no doubt bear the brunt of the reaction, towards the terrorists, it is the first wave Millenials who will set the standard for the rest of the cohort. No matter, however it turns out, I have a large amount of optimism for the outcome of this. Largely because, in parallels with what happened with the civil war, part of my cohort has at least more experience than the Civil War generation, whose leading edge was 16. Furthermore, while that is only a 3 year difference, adolescence is a very important part of a person's life because that is where a child becomes an adult and learns to deal with independence, and a 19 year old, no matter how naive and innocent he may be, is better equipped to deal with a crisis than a 16 year old.

As the post-911 agenda deepens and broadens, keep an eye on red-zone / blue-zone differences. The word about Seattle (and what I hear of Cambridge, Mass.) suggests that the blue-zone may be more inclined to linger in a 3T, the red-zone more inclined to push toward a 4T.

A wild card to watch is New York, heart of the blue-zone East Coast. If a heartland city had been attacked, one can imagine New Yorkers sounding like Seattleites. But now, will New York (and the NY-based news media) lead the demands for war? What will a very angry but very heavily immigrant New York have to say about demands for tight new controls on our borders? I'll be curious to hear what Rudy Giuliani and NY's two Senators have to say about these things, once the time for rescue has passed. Along with Hillary, I think Schumer and Giuliani are both Boomers (Rudy is a '43 cohort Boomer, I believe.)