On 2001-09-16 22:32, madscientist wrote:
Everyone else will eventually join us. But that will probably be in a few years at the least. Canada should enter the 4T between now and 2004. The UK, Australia, China, and Russia should enter between 2004 and 2007. The rest of Europe will probably enter between 2007 and 2011.

Well Canada is pretty much in sych with the USA (Canada shares a similar history and culture with the USA), although the crisis in the USA has come early. Canada might wait until 2003 or 2004. I know Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand South Asia, South East Asia are both 3-4 years behind North Americia on the saeculum means they will be coming into the crisis around 2007-2008. Russia and China are pretty much syched with the USA, means they could already be in a crisis or be in a crisis soon.

Obviously no one "knows" what's ahead, but here are a few possibilities:

1. Right now our Silent diplomatic corps is having some success in securing the cooperation of so-called "moderate" Arab and Muslim countries, but I see this as not lasting very long. Once America starts shedding Muslim blood in large amounts, like will adhere to like and eventually the entire Islamic world will be ranged against us. Among other things, this will lead to another OPEC oil embargo - and of all of our presently living generations, Busters (born 1958-68) in particular know what that means: No lights at Christmas time, year-round daylight saving time, 55 or even 50-MPH speed limits on the nation's highways, and, this time around, rolling blackouts - and not just in California - and perhaps even realignment of sports leagues so teams rarely if ever have to board a plane to play away games (hopefully, though, we'll be spared those "Last Out, Lights Out: Don't Be Fuelish" cut-outs to be stuck on light switches that many newspapers printed in the winter of 1973-74). Another thing to look out for: Massive domestic oil drilling, both in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge and offshore (and with no vocal opposition from the political left), possibly resulting in environmental calamities as the second stage of the Crisis, after all the assorted wars are over.

2. Despite the widespread reports of "hate crimes" against Muslims and Arab-Americans throughout the United States, thus far the nearly two million African-Americans who profess the Islamic faith have remained inviolate. But there's no guarantee this situation will hold. If black Moslems ever get targeted, a full-scale race war cannot be ruled out. And if this doesn't occur, the politically opposite might: Our home-grown, right-wing "militia" types could conceivably join forces with the Arab terrorists. Either scenario could have catastrophic consequences - up to and including another anomalous, Civil War-style truncation of the cycle of turnings and generations.

3. Class warfare is also possible: If our current conservative leadership insists upon shunting too much of the necessary sacrifices onto the lower economic classes (and the younger generations) - say by imposing a national sales tax - it could trigger a Marxist-type revolution in this country. To minimize this threat, the remainder of the recently-passed tax cut (which would benefit almost exclusively the rich and the late-middle-aged) should not be proceeded with; also, any proposal to expand Social Security and/or Medicare benefits (like adding prescription drug coverage for all Americans over 65) needs to be taken off the table as well.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Anthony '58 on 2001-09-17 06:44 ]</font>

Thank God there's a thread on this topic!

I have two major thoughts in relation to TFT theory:

First [and this one is short]: our "enemy" is widely scattered. The "enemy" is difficult to find. We can't just bomb all the places these terrorists may hide, because they live even in our country.

Boomers have fought in a war like this: Vietnam.

Watch how Boomers react to this "war"...

Second: one thing that struck me from TFT is that the Civic generation builds and creates the dreams of the Awakener generation during the Crisis. [I've lost my copy of the book, so I can't give a reference.]

Since reading the book, I've wondered what form this will take... Love and peace from the Summer of Love hippies? Or -- I daren't guess what -- from the Religious Right? I have pondered on this for a year and a half now... [The hippies were stronger and more vocal during their day, however. I hope and pray this remains true today.]

And what I've been seeing is quite an outpouring of desires for PEACE.

--A quick question: have any other previous Awakeners actually seen war? Certainly not to the extent of Vietnam... But have all other Awakeners never seen war at all?? [And because of this, they more easily call their children into war.] Please, someone answer this, if you could.

If that is true, maybe, just maybe, the dreams of *this* Awakener generation is PEACE, not war.

Can you imagine what change the *world* would go through if we answered this threat not with violence, but with PEACE?? Now *that* would be a noble dream to build upon!

I'm not just saying this because I'm some tree-hugging peace-monger. :smile: [Though I have nothing against them. :smile: ] I'm saying that in the times in my life that I've answered anger with love and peace that it has changed the *other* person deeply, and solved the problem.

If we fight a war against the terrorists, this is exactly what they expect and *plan* for. If we answer with killing -- esp. killing of innocents -- then we are no different from the terrorists.

If we answer with love and peace, what could they do?? If we answer with peace, then *they* look like fools... [Part of me sees this whole thing like The Grinch Who Stole Christmas. :smile: And why not??]

Certainly, each 4th Turning is unique, being in its own time, and having its own issues, and its own tools. We are not recreating the Revolutionary war, or Civil war, or WWII. How will this one be different? How are we shaped, and shape this new era?

I think the Boomers having lived through the drastic horrors of war will be far less likely than any other previous Awakeners to actually *go* to war -- they know they'd be hypocrites, whereas, FDR's generation was not.


Well, anyway, the outpouring of my Boomer friends to light candles and pray for peace, make me feel that this might have a chance. And having a chance, this is what I know *I'll* be working towards...

I, for one, however, would really like to see a Gray Champion step forward and lead the country *decisively* one way or the other.

Those are my two thoughts:

1) This unseen enemy is much like the Vietnam war -- and this is significant.
2) This Awakener generation is far, far more peace-loving -- how will they react to actual war?

What will these things mean? What are their influence?

Kiki

PS So much of what I've been thinking since our day of infamy has been in relation to TFT theory, and general chatting with friends results in a long explanation, and typically a long argument before we can get down to business. :

Thank you, thank you, thank you for addressing this on the website. I've been depressed that so much discussion had slowed down since I read the book. I really need you all to talk to about this. :smile:

Decline of Civil Liberties?

BTW, why does that mean we automatically must have a decline of Civil Liberties during a Crisis??

Didn't the Constitution and Bill of Rights come out of a Crisis period? Didn't that generation *want* freedoms for the individual?

Kiki

Kiki, much as I have always misliked the reasons for our participation in the Vietnam War, it's likely that the lessons learned there about fighting an unseen force will be invaluable to us in this fight.

Everyone wish me luck today at work. I'm hoping patriotism will prevail, but if fear is stronger, it's gonna be a l-o-n-g day.

I respect Tristan's opinions, but on this one, he is wrong. How anyone can miss that Russia and much of the Middle East is already in a Fourth Turning is utterly beyond me. Just as former Yugoslavia has been for ten years. Iran is actually past its Fourth Turning and therefore will probably want to stay out of this. Europe and China are, indeed, behind us. Mexico is already in 4T.

When the catalyst comes from outside it can obviously speed you up somewhat. This time some one else's Fourth Turning has sped us up, and defined the critical issues for at least the first part of our Fourth Turning. The First World War, on the other hand, coming, I think, somewhat earlier in the saeculum than this, did NOT get us into a Fourth Turning.

The previous events--impeachment, Nasdaq collapse, and E2K--all showed that the mood of the country was becoming more apocalyptic. As it happened none of them was serious enough to plunge us into things.

I have spent a day without posting partly to think. In the same way that I see this as 1929, I think that we will flounder for some time trying to cope with this particular problem. Remember, Hoover completely floundered, and FDR was never fully successful in actually dealing with it. I expect some other problem, a domestic one,. to come along during this 4T and it may be the thing that allows us to coalesce. And I cannot rule out the possibility that we may NOT be able to cope with this crisis and it might be the end of the US as we have known it. It has happened to many nations before.

Oh--some one suggested that the Revolutionary Fourth Turning didn't hurt civil liberties,it established them. Actually the Bill of Rights wasn't passed until the High. Meanwhile, 100,000 tories, I believe, were driven out of the colonies at the end of the Revolution. Anyone who doesn't get on board during the Fourth Turning itself is likely to find himself incarcerted, or worse. Remmber, even article I of the Constitution allows for the suspension of habeas corpus--that is, for indiscriminate locking of people up--"in time of invasion or rebellion."

I ask every one to keep this in mind: because we know this is a Fourth Turning doesn't mean we know how, or if, we will emerge from it.

To Madscientist, Robert Reed: You should read the info at the bottom of the article you posted (page 20, this thread).

That was not a 22 yr old speaking.

Oops, I'll change it quickly.

Dear Mr. Meece:

The reality of the social securtiy "lock box" was nothing more than political posturing in order to scare older American's into thinking that thier security and well being were threatened and could only be saved by increasing the political power of certain politicans. My generation has seen many of these imagined "crisis" in our lifetime and recognize them for what they are. I repeat, the box that they should have had thier eye on is the "lock box" of our liberty and saftey.
Now here is a dose of reality for you:

The first charge of any nation is to protect the life of its citizens. John Locke pointed to this as the very basis for a government's reason to exist when groups came together for saftey anr protection against those in the "state of nature" who threathened them.
Your "competent social policy" means very little to the souls beneath the rubble of the WTC. Our nation and politicans have let us down. By posturing over an endless array of social benefits wrapped up in the concept of an ever expanding government (which both parties have done), they have dropped the ball with regard to the very basic functions of our government, our security, freedom, and property. Or as Mr. Locke put it our "Life, liberty, and property"
I suffer from no blindness to reality. I pray that many of our politicans and citizens will start to wake and get real.

On a Creature loosed from the 14 September 2001 number of Jane's by Rahul Bedi in "Why? An attempt to explain."


I go among the fields and catch the glimpse of a stoat or a fieldmouse peeping out of the withered grass-The creature hath a purpose and its eyes are bright with it-I go amongst the buildings of a city and I see a man hurrying along-to what? The Creature has a purpose and his eyes are bright with it. Keats, 19 March 1819


America has had use of many such clockwork creatures- in Iraq, Panama, Afghanistan -winding them up and letting them go. Then forgetting them as their amusement and utility no longer concern. But, they do clatter on and demand our attention sooner or later.

I think Canada is in as much of a 4T right now as is the U.S. Which is not to say that everyone in the country is on the same page - I have my doubts that Prime Minister Chretien will be inclined to act in a particularly seasonal mood, despite his stance of support for America. We'll see. I can't wait for the next federal election.

Hey, guys. Long time no see.

So I got together with the friend who first recommended 4T to me. The subject turned to whether the 4T was coming. I noted that the oldest Xers were turning 41 and the oldest Millennials 20, and said, "It could come any day now."

That was the evening of Monday, September 10.

Yes, I do think this is the catalyst. The reason is that it changes so many of the rules of the game by which the 3T operated. In particular, the ability to travel anywhere, fairly easily, by air, was a hallmark of this 3T. (Last Sunday, my local paper carried a story about a guy who fulfilled a dream to fly around the world, on commercial airliners, in one 61-hour jaunt. Talk about timing!) And the ripple effect reaches so many areas--the global economy, international relations, oil, national spending priorities.

As for S&H's list of 10 factors, I don't know if all of them are necessary to a 4T, as opposed to characteristic of past ones. After all, we're working from a very small sample size. And there is the issue of intervening social progress. Someone once posted here that Artist generations create the most lasting ideological changes. The Silent have devoted most of their energy to the messages of tolerance and not judging people by their background, and I think that has borne some fruit. I was at a meeting of a board I serve on last week, and when an Arab member who works with a Muslim charity didn't show up, we called him from the meeting to pledge our support. In a choked voice, he told us that he'd been receiving many more calls and letters of support than anti-Muslim rhetoric.

BTW, where can I look to find the meaning of all these "red zone" and "blue zone" terms that people are throwing around?

Hey, Ben. Good to see you here.

The blue zone/red zone stuff refers to the map of the E2K election results that showed the geographical distribution of the split in the country.

For those among us that seem so eager, so willing, so almost pleased that we have finally entered that deep and mysterious "fourthturning," I offer some words, spoken to a group of Silent generation college students, from one that had actually just come out of a fourthturn:

"The past generation has been a period of unbelievable confusion and change: a convulsion of economic maladjustment, of mass
slavery and death, of war and deceit in which the qualities of pity and love have been largely overwhelmed."

George H. Mead, CEO Mead Corporation (MISS 1877-1963): In Quiet Ways, Page 299 (speech 1/7/55)



Happy fourth, everyone!

Robertson, Fallwell, and other 3T culture warriors, will find their views and message becoming increasingly irrelevant to many people as America's mood turns 4T, and we change our focus to other issues relevant to the new turning.

I dunno. I come and look at this board for a little...well, insight, and all I get are a litany of buzzwords. It begins to sound no more clear than Nostradamus...

Are you guys sure you really know what you're talking about?

Thanks, Lis. Which is blue and which is red?

For a really wild example of strained 3T thinking, check http://www.brandchannel.com. Articles posted today seek to identify the qualities of the "US brand" and treat 9/11 as a challenge to the brand. A parallel discussion covers whether the "God brand" needs revision.

Ben, the map followed the same colors the networks used during the election: blue for Gore voters and red for Bush voters.

The story comes from the Associated Press:

"In the New York Times poll, those who lived through World War II and the wars in Korea and Vietnam were the least likely to back military action."


To find out what this might mean, click here:

http://www.fourthturning.com/forums/...orum=6&start=0

Marc Lamb posted the words of George Mead, written in 1955, as warning to those who embrace lightly the fourth turning.

"The past generation has been a period of unbelievable confusion and change: a convulsion of economic maladjustment, of mass slavery and death, of war and deceit in which the qualities of pity and love have been largely overwhelmed."

I would add a few words from the Gray Champions, which would imply a little more.

>>>

The Almighty has His own purposes. "Woe unto the world because of offenses; for it must needs be that offenses come, but woe to that man by whom the offense cometh". If we shall suppose that American slavery is one of those offenses which, in the providence of God, must needs come, but which, having continued through His appointed time, He now wills to remove, and that He gives to both North and South this terrible war as the woe due to those by whom the offense came, shall we discern therein any departure from those divine attributes which the believers in a living God always ascribe to Him? Fondly do we hope, fervently do we pray, that this mighty scourge of war may speedily pass away. Yet, if God wills that it continue until all the wealth piled by the bondsman's two hundred and fifty years of unrequited toil shall be sunk, and until every drop of blood drawn with the lash shall be paid by another drawn with the sword, as was said three thousand years ago, so still it must be said "the judgments of the Lord are true and righteous altogether".

With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan, to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.

>>>

In the future days which we seek to make secure, we look forward to a world founded upon four essential human freedoms.

The first is freedom of speech and expression --everywhere in the world.

The second is freedom of every person to worship God in his own way-- everywhere in the world.

The third is freedom from want, which, translated into world terms, means economic understandings which will secure to every nation a healthy peacetime life for its inhabitants --everywhere in the world.

The fourth is freedom from fear, which, translated into world terms, means a world-wide reduction of armaments to such a point and in such a thorough fashion that no nation will be in a position to commit an act of physical aggression against any neighbor --anywhere in the wold.

That is no vision of a distant millennium. It is a definite basis for a kind of world attainable in our own time and generation. That kind of world is the very antithesis of the so-called "new order" of tyranny which the dictators seek to create with the crash of a bomb.

To that new order we oppose the greater conception --the moral order. A good society is able to face schemes of world domination and foreign revolutions alike without fear. Since the beginning of our American history we have been engaged in change, in a perpetual, peaceful revolution, a revolution which goes on steadily, quietly, adjusting itself to changing conditions without the concentration camp or the quicklime in the ditch. The world order which we seek is the cooperation of free countries, working together in a friendly, civilized society.

This nation has placed its destiny in the hands, heads and hearts of its millions of free men and women, and its faith in freedom under the guidance of God. Freedom means the supremacy of human rights everywhere. Our support goes to those who struggle to gain those rights and keep them. Our strength is our unity of purpose.

To that high concept there can be no end save victory.

I intentionally did not post what George Mead said next...

"Nevertheless, the U.S. has adjusted enough and sacrificed enough to avoid the holocaust. It may seek a perfection which can be found only in heaven and a finality of solutions which only comes in death, but it is moving and learning. It has the capacity to mature and yet stay young if it is well led and that is a pretty good state for any nation to be in."

My point being that I wonder how much we are willing to sacrifice right now in this brave new post-Conditville nation, Mr. Butler.

Wonderful words are... well, wonderful words. Only with blood, sweat and tears have they much meaning.

"Nevertheless, the U.S. has adjusted enough and sacrificed enough to avoid the holocaust. It may seek a perfection which can be found only in heaven and a finality of solutions which only comes in death, but it is moving and learning. It has the capacity to mature and yet stay young if it is well led and that is a pretty good state for any nation to be in."

Those words were true enough, perhaps, in 1955. The old holocaust was avoided. The older problems were solved, so much as it was in the capacity of past generations to solve them. I would contend that as of September 2001, we have not yet ?adjusted enough and sacrificed enough to avoid the holocaust.? Holocaust has come to us. If we do not recognize ?offenses which, in the providence of God, must needs come, but which, having continued through His appointed time, He now wills to remove? then we shall have lost ?the capacity to mature and yet stay young.?

Is it inevitable that we shall find within ourselves sufficient spirit of older times? No. The future is not yet clear for all to see. However, if we do not hear in our hearts an echo of old words, we will no longer be in ?a pretty good state for any nation to be in.?

A couple of thoughts on 911.

1. On the other super-active thread, I posted my view that the Gen-Xers on the plane that crashed in Pennsylvania were true heroes. They had a dirty job to do and they did it, no questions asked, no complaints. I understand though that they were helped by a late-wave Boomer (sometimes refered to as Jonerers or Busters on these threads). Of course, those of you who know me know me as a late wave Boomer (1956).

2. My younger sister, who vigorously rejects the whole notion of generations and Turnings (life is much more complicated, S&H just indulge in stereotypes, etc...) seems to believe that the economy is about to crash to the point that she frets about whether she'll be able to pay her mortgage if she loses her senior management job at AT&T (she makes 2 to 3 times the income of her husband and they have two kids). She seems to believe the 4T that she doesn't believe in has arrived.

3. It is so easy to get completely crazy about this 911 thing, which fortunately for most of us here is still theoretical (unless we personally knew any of the victims, lost our home or workplace, lost our jobs, was sent to serve, or suffered any other "real" hardship. If you did experience any real loss, my heart and prayers are with you). We're all safe and secure, but worried senseless about the future, and with good reason.

However, please excuse me if I might inject a little philosophizing. Maybe because tonight is the evening of Rosh Hashanah (I'm Jewish), or maybe because I watched my teacher Majaraji broadcast on DISH Network yesterday, but my thoughts have turned to the Big Picture.

This 911 event has thrown an eternal truth into very sharp relief. None of us knows what the future holds. We are all here and safe now, we are all alive, and to some extent we all have to let go and let the future happen. That's always been the case and will always be the case. So let us all take a deep breath....

And please, don't bash each others posts or insult each other on these threads!

On the comments by Falwell and Robertson that I played a role in publicizing on these boards:

With a weekend's reflection, agreed that 'twas "3T" to even focus so much attention on them. After all, when your enemy is in the midst of destroying himself, the best advice is to smile sweetly and get the heck out of the way :wink: