A few random thoughts on 3T/4T, WWI or WWII, Harper's Ferry or Gettysburg, just where does 911 fall on the scale?
If we think of current and historical events: Declaration of Independence, Bombing of Pearl Harbor, doughboy Lost coming home from WWI - it's very easy to determine which turning those events were in. WWI -- very clearly 3T, even though it had an expansive scope. Similarly, Desert Storm, even though it was over in six months.
I think the reason we're having such a hard time determining what 911 is (and some of us are having a harder time than others, given the very strong opinions one way or the other :smile: ), is because 911 is truly one of these events. That is, it's definitely a capital E-event of its' type, whatever type that is.
I'm not doing this idea justice, but this might help: Few debate whether or not Pearl Harbor is actually the (then) modern personification of Lincoln's election, of the Declaration of Independence, or even if it was WWI repeated. I believe this is becuase these Events are very solid, well-fleshed examples of something that truly has no prototype.
In T4T, S&H predict the 3T might continue through 2006 or so, albiet more 'jittery' than previous years. This is a possiblity. This may also prove to be the catalyst that evokes the next 4T. At this point I can't say which, **not** because the event itself is inscrutable, but simply becuase we aren't reliving history to the degree that we can successfully 'pin' Harper's Ferry or the Spanish Armada onto modern examples of T events.
That said, 911 isn't truly any of the previous Events. I think it's more than a little-e event, and is elevated to Event status, but precisely where it measures against other calendars, I can't say.
I think that future historians will remember 911, and this will be an event that achieves the same kind of national stature that other Events have. (This is over and above the ghastly personal toll, and the unprecedented attack on U.S. soil). This is the legacy. If it ultimately turns out to be a 3T event, it will be viewed as a harbinger or omen to the 4T that I think we all see coming. If it is ultimately a 4T event (and I shy away from saying "viewed as a 4T Event, becuase once history has turned I don't feel the labels are open to much debate), it may cough and sputter, or roar into life.
Future historians (I hope I'm around for those discussions) will no doubt view their own future with dread and wonder "Is a 911 coming? Was that 'our' 911?"
I view looking at a Saecular calendar, not with dates, but maybe just blank spots marking the days. But, we see a cluster of activity around what appears to be fall, and another at what appears to be winter. This new dot (911) isn't right next to the other dots, but it isn't that far away either. We're getting good at predicting the seasons, and in the years to come we'll add more dots to our seasonal change to mark the passing of the sun ... and have a clearer picture of things. But that's then, and this is now, and things aren't as clear.
(I did see a post last week that suggested this was a 3T event merely becuase the 911 label was sticking. I do agree that 911 is a very Xer label, and likely a 3T label, and I agree it's sticking, but I'll stop my speculation there).
PS: I see a nice revival in Nike's "just do it" phrase. Could come in handy.
1964 - GenX, Atari cohort