Re: availability of T4T. As I've noted, I teach a cultural studies course (Contemporary American Studies) to high school seniors. In the past, we have discussed -- briefly -- S&H's theories as the groundwork for the course's themes. Just after 911 attack, the class agreed to drop one of the novels (A Handmaid's Tale)in favor of T4T. After S&H's notice about a possible TIME magazine cover, and the 3-5 week delay at Amazon, I double-checked my order, and I was pleased (and relieved) to find that 24 copies of T4T will be arriving this week. Whew!



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Kevin1952 on 2001-10-01 18:07 ]</font>

this response to a hoax has been deleted

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: richt on 2001-10-02 10:02 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: richt on 2001-10-02 10:03 ]</font>

I would like to see everyone e-mail Charlie Rose at charlierose@pbs.org and lobby him to bring Strauss and Howe on his show for a discussion. We have the power to bring this theory and this vision of the future to a wider audience.

i was watching the geraldo show this evening and they showed a video clip of the speech that JFK gave to the american public during the cuban missile crisis. what was most striking about it to me was how it sounded almost exactly like the speech that george w. gave before congress just recently. the same themes of how this would be a conflict "unlike any other we had ever faced before" and how the american public should brace for a "protracted conflict" that would require "patience" were the mentioned over and over again in kennedy's speech. it was a truly remarkable thing to see.

my prediction is that the 911 tragedy will end up in a similar fashion as the cuban missile crisis. the u.s government will find a way to quickly and cleanly put an end to this in a way that will allow them to declare a great victory, satisfy the american public, and allow everyone to go back to business as usual so to speak. but there will remain an underlying sense of paranoia just as there was after the cuban missile crisis. and the 911 event will indeed turn out to be a foreshadowing of the real problems we have yet to encounter.

regarding the upcoming Time interview, i too would like to congratulate bill and neil. its long overdue that they got this kind of recognition for their work. but i wonder if these ideas become too widely known and accepted if they will in some way affect the future outcome in some unknown way? isn't it the heisenberg principle in physics that says that often the mere act of measuring something can alter the outcome of the experiment? could this be true in this instance as well? i wonder.

Hi, enjolras.

On 2001-10-01 22:52, enjolras wrote:
i was watching the geraldo show this evening and they showed a video clip of the speech that JFK gave to the american public during the cuban missile crisis. what was most striking about it to me was how it sounded almost exactly like the speech that george w. gave before congress just recently. the same themes of how this would be a conflict "unlike any other we had ever faced before" and how the american public should brace for a "protracted conflict" that would require "patience" were the mentioned over and over again in kennedy's speech. it was a truly remarkable thing to see.

I saw that, too, caught it while channel surfing. While it was a great speech, what I found remarkable was Bush sort of ripped Kennedy off there..... sorry, but my thought was, well, whatdya know, THAT's where he got that from....

my prediction is that the 911 tragedy will end up in a similar fashion as the cuban missile crisis. the u.s government will find a way to quickly and cleanly put an end to this in a way that will allow them to declare a great victory, satisfy the american public, and allow everyone to go back to business as usual so to speak. but there will remain an underlying sense of paranoia just as there was after the cuban missile crisis. and the 911 event will indeed turn out to be a foreshadowing of the real problems we have yet to encounter.

I pray you are right. That would be the best thing.

Hi, Bob.

On 2001-10-01 14:57, Bob Butler 54 wrote:

Barbara wrote? Your post did make me think of a 2T (?) phrase, for some weird reason, something to the effect of "What if they gave a war and nobody came?" I'm starting to think like that.... . I mean, as far as muddy-ing the Turning waters, this declaration of invisible war is making things tough to sort out. Like, it keeps the Pearl Harbor Reaction going, thereby making it harder to see the 1929 parallel, perspective. Everytime I try to think about it, I get a feeling of speeded-up time, Back to the Future, like we are trying to experience the Regeneracy before the Catalyst. Or did we just all miss the Catalyst? I don't know, no one knows, we can only believe or not, hindsight, stupid boring patient hindsight....

Prior to the American Revolution and American Civil War, there were militant activists (such as the Sons of Liberty and Abolitionists) pushing for a change to the status quo. Prior to World War II, FDR?s establishment democrats pushed for change to big government world power. In all three cases, the major military triggers (Lexington Green, Ft Sumter, and Pearl Harbor) occurred well after the consensus had been reached. People had a decent idea of the issues and where they stood on them, though in the first two cases, the Declaration of Independence and Emancipation Proclamation were still a ways in the future.

Again, this time we are the fat and happy party, the single nation that would be most content if the status quo could continue indefinitely. Thus, with hindsight, it would not be surprising that our nation lacks a strong militant group loudly demanding change. The radicals most desiring to overthrow the status quo would be abroad. Here, the Clinton Administration (and perhaps the liberal blue zone?) was willing to help the peace process along where it could, and made some effort towards developing the third world, but Clinton?s efforts were performed at a routine priority level, not at a crash 4T priority. The Dubya Administration (and perhaps the conservative red zone) seemed reluctant to engage in other folk?s problems. This difference, raised during the Bush / Gore campaign, seems to be the equivalent of the World War II era?s Isolationist / Interventionist debate. September 11 has pushed us in the direction of intervention. However, the final form of this intervention seems still way up in the air. An attempt is being made to address security issues. The economic, ecological, religious and ethnic issues are beginning to bubble into public view. At a guess, the Regeneracy is just beginning, with phase 1 being flag waving, phase 2 being a long hard look in a mirror.

Thus, my thought is that Dubya and Company are misreading their turnings, as is much of the nation. The military trigger event is supposed to occur after consensus is already reached. This one came far before the consensus has been reached. Thus, everyone has tried hard to go into the culturally habitual fourth turning crusade mode. The flags are flying. The fingers are being pointed at the enemy. The speeches are being made. None of the speeches are in the least reminiscent of the Declaration of Independence, the Gettysburg address, or the Four Freedoms. The program necessary to solve the long term underlying problems is missing. The vision of the future isn?t visible. Without a vision, how can we work to achieve a vision? In short, we still have some regenerating to do.

Does this feel right, Barbara?

It sure makes sense to me, Bob. Thanks.

One question, though: do you think if we don't step away from the crusade mode we are now in, could this cause a crisis anomoly, even unlike the Civil War one?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Barbara on 2001-10-01 23:21 ]</font>

On 2001-10-01 18:06, Kevin1952 wrote:
Re: availability of T4T. As I've noted, I teach a cultural studies course (Contemporary American Studies) to high school seniors. In the past, we have discussed -- briefly -- S&H's theories as the groundwork for the course's themes. Just after 911 attack, the class agreed to drop one of the novels (A Handmaid's Tale)in favor of T4T. After S&H's notice about a possible TIME magazine cover, and the 3-5 week delay at Amazon, I double-checked my order, and I was pleased (and relieved) to find that 24 copies of T4T will be arriving this week. Whew!

I'm happy for you, Kevin. And, wow, you teach Handmaiden's Tale? Good one.

I read the 4th Turning a few years back, and thought the theory was very interesting. Since that time I have observed many facets of the theory playing out in life around me. Both in the way society behaves as a whole, and more specifically how the various generations act. My wife and I, both 13ers, know a lot of Boomers, and I can say that our generational attitudes are quite different. Where they have been optimistic, we have been cynical. Where they are symbolic, we like to be practical. And so on. But that's not really the point of my message.

The real points are thus. First, having come back to the forum after a long absence, I must say I'm impressed by the high level of discourse and the relatively low amount of personal insults thrown about. This is very unlike most other internet forums in that way.

And then the real meat of why I am posting. Whether or not 911 has thrown us into 4T, I think some perspective is in order. Everyone talks about 4T in bleak terms, as if it is the depth of winter. I suppose that this comes from the S & H descriptions of 4th turnings. However, I personally like winter. I think it is a quiet time, to reflect and pay attention to home & family. In that sense maybe it is an apt analogy.

And that is the real point. A 4th turning is another phase of life (of our society). It represents change. Change in attitudes, lifestyles. But change is not bad - in fact it is good. It cleanses. It makes way for new growth. It gets rid of dead wood. It provides new perspectives, thoughts, ideas, and motivations to action.

Someone posted earlier that the only good thing about 4T was that it will be followed by a 1T. That is a linear way of thinking, which is possibly why we get into such messes in the first place. 4T is a process. It is necessary. We can gnash teeth, hate every second of it, and hope for the light at the end of the tunnel, meanwhile wasting 20 or so years of our lives (assuming we make it through). Or we can embrace it - live through it as best possible, maximizing our enjoyment of life. That enjoyment may now come from different, simpler things. Things like family, friends, community, civil discourse, and philosophical inquiry. These things replacing MTV, celebrities, fast cars, loose morals, gizmos & gadgets, and self indulging talk shows. I believe there is value in both ways. I enjoy(ed) gadgets & gizmos, and the carefree sense enjoined by the roaring 90's. But I also longed for a greater sense of belonging. Of a time when civil and political discourse is important to people, not 20th on their list of 20 things to do. Both have value, in different ways.

And lest we deceive ourselves that whatever and whenever the 1T is, that it will be all peaches and cream, there are some things to remember about the last 1T. Things like McCarthy. Leave it to Beaver. Women stuck at home in more traditional roles. Consolidation of corporations, resulting in things like the purchase and closing down of much of the country's rail infrastructure (by e.g. GM), and as an earlier poster mentioned, AT&T's total control of telephony, resulting in complete lack of innovation. Closing down of small breweries, and replacing them with the likes of Coors, Bud, Miller.

Simply put, America's tastes became very bland and conformist during the last 1T. To me that sounds no more preferable than any of the other T's (and in fact for an individualist like myself, it sounds worse). The point is, that one can either look at the future and hope the next turning (or the next job, the next spouse, etc) will be better, or one can make things better here and now. I suggest the latter.

Yes, we may be in for some big changes. I have yet to decide whether we are still in 3T or 4T. I think we are on the balance point, and could revert for a short while into 3T, but if so it won't be for long. But regardless of that, I will continue to live my life as best as conditions allow, trying not to be suckered or guilt tripped by the more fanatical boomers out there into being their henchman or flag waver. (A previous Boomer post admonished a certain 13er for a similar attitude. All I can say is it's good there are some other 13ers out there to help control the zeal of the Boomers).

I love the USA. But waving a flag will not help the country. What will help is people getting to work, whether with changed priorities or not. And more importantly, enjoying their lives and sharing that joy with others. Joy does not mean ignorance, it means simply making the best of the here and now. Instead of flag waving and other symbolisms, I am doing my part other ways - working hard (on things that do have value to society such as improvement of health care), trying to still enjoy my life, and trying to spread that joy where possible. Is that so wrong?

Michael

I leave the site for 3 days, go through 8 pages on this topic, and see this, which most of you missed:

On 2001-10-01 08:12, William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote:
This post was deleted because it was not made by either William Strauss or Neil Howe.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Webmaster on 2001-10-01 22:35 ]</font>

Everyone who is congratulating S&H on the Time magazine cover should take note. The post in which that was announced has been deleted and this has been replaced with this announcement from Craig Cheslog, the webmaster. If I read this correctly, we've been hoaxed! :oops: Well, Craig, Bill, Neil, were we?

FWIW, if this is a hoax, this has to be one of the more clever trolls I've ever seen!

Are the Bush the equivalent of a Klemens Metternich, Restorer of Thrones.

It's a good thing to Restore monarchies argues Mr. Bob Wallace in Long Live the King! at LewRockwell.com. HTH

Vince Lamb posts? Everyone who is congratulating S&H on the Time magazine cover should take note. The post in which that was announced has been deleted and this has been replaced with this announcement from Craig Cheslog, the webmaster. If I read this correctly, we've been hoaxed! Well, Craig, Bill, Neil, were we?

I had noticed that the site's post counter listed the announcement as the first time William Strauss and Neil Howe had posted on this forum. This made me a bit suspicious, but not suspicious enough. Why would they create a new forum account when they had a perfectly good one? Alas, anyone can create a name. So long as it is one character different from any other name, the computer will allow it. At a guess, one or more of the lower case 'L's was really a one. This is a routine hack method used as an annoyance on many forums. Nice catch, Craig!

Barbara asks? One question, though: do you think if we don't step away from the crusade mode we are now in, could this cause a crisis anomaly, even unlike the Civil War one?

My guess is that Dubya and Company will attempt a 3T small scale solution to the security problems, without a comprehensive 4T scale attack on then underlying issues. He is still thinking of solving the military problem without mobilizing. He is still avoiding acknowledging that US policy in the Middle East is in any way flawed. He is still thinking in terms of tax cuts to stimulate the economy, not big action requiring big money to implement big fixes.

I'm still thinking of Hoover, and perhaps Buchanon, who did their best implementing traditional 3T established methods on problems that required a 4T revamp of their societies. In many ways I respect what Dubya is doing, building a coalition, listening to other world leaders who know the Middle East better than he, attacking the terrorists not the people of Afghanistan, focusing anger on the terrorists rather than Arabs or Muslims. Dubya is growing admirably. However, as I have the benefit of being a 4T fanatic, I suspect Dubya is attacking the tip of the iceberg without looking for the 90% of the problem still beneath the surface. As he comes from a Big Oil mindset, I suspect he will go full speed in the wrong direction for as long as he can, trying hard not to see the iceberg,

If so, the winner of the 2004 democratic nomination for president becomes Gray Champion. I think we will drop out of crisis mode into a lull similar to World War II's "phony war," between the end of the invasion of Poland and the start of the invasion of Belgium, Holland and France. The issues are visible, and will be debated. Who knows, perhaps Dubya's approach might even solve the visible symptoms? If there are no more incidents, and there are some successes on the counterattack, Dubya could get his second term. I'm doubtful. I think more has to be done that Dubya wants to take on. The West ought to be lead through a Crisis by someone who is an interventionist at heart, not an isolationist. Dubya ran as an isolationist, but even before September 11 had been dragged into accepting many of Clinton's interventions. He is learning. He might even learn enough, or be dragged enough. Still, the Gray Champion should be able to see basic problems and apply basic solutions.

My largest fear is still that the US will refuse to see underlying problems, will attempt to maintain the imbalance of wealth between the developed and undeveloped countries, between the old imperialist nations and their former colonies. Dubya might just start us down that road.

On 2001-10-02 00:05, Vince Lamb '59 wrote:
I leave the site for 3 days, go through 8 pages on this topic, and see this, which most of you missed:

On 2001-10-01 08:12, William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote:
This post was deleted because it was not made by either William Strauss or Neil Howe.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Webmaster on 2001-10-01 22:35 ]</font>

Everyone who is congratulating S&H on the Time magazine cover should take note. The post in which that was announced has been deleted and this has been replaced with this announcement from Craig Cheslog, the webmaster. If I read this correctly, we've been hoaxed! :oops: Well, Craig, Bill, Neil, were we?

FWIW, if this is a hoax, this has to be one of the more clever trolls I've ever seen!

Hopefully, the webmaster caught his IP address. I thought something was eerie, but I didn't think it was a hoax. First of all they already made a post before, so why would it say: "Posts: 1"? Also the actual post the S&H posted said, "Neil Howe and William Strauss", not "William Strauss and Neil Howe". However, I thought that S&H just forgot their password. :wink:

Another thing I noticed was that in MR.com, a similar message was made: http://www.millennialsrising.com/cgi...als/a.cgi/3--5

In these 3 weeks since the attacks, I've heard many good reasons both pro and con about whether or not we are in a 4T. I would like to add to this a consideration of the generations overseas. One point that S and H make is that the other societies that display a generational cycle are 2-5 years behind the US due to a longer resolution period (the post war recovery). Hence, the Artists are that much younger than their US counterparts (the Silents), and thus wield greater influance. This is reflected by their response to the 911 attacks. A smaller percentage of their populations favor a military solution inspite of the fact that 911 was an act of war by any defination of the term since bin Laden sought to disable the US military, the government, and the economy (hence vital interests). Instead, a larger percentage seek the nuanced approuch that is vintage Artist. They call for due process, wishing to rely on the UN and the International Court among others to deal with Terrorism, and they beg the US and its allies not to strike. Another piece of evidence to this is that the Peace movements seem to be stronger in these societies. Combine this with the strong Silent presence in the Bush inner circle, and one has powerful forces that could dampen this spark and keep it from being the Catalyst. This could change if another major attack is mounted or the economy's recession becomes a depression. So we will have to wait and see what happen.

This is the first discussion forum I?ve ever been on. I felt that it?s proper to read all the posts before responding, and it?s taken forever to catch up. One thing I like about this forum is the direct, conscious conversation between generations. Maybe that seems remarkable to me because I?m used to Boomer-GI tension. I?ve also been impressed with the intelligent level of exchange.
There are a lot of issues that I?ve wanted to respond to - fortunately, I?ve read more articulate responses to them than I could write, especially from Eric Meece and Brian Rush. I still want to add some perspective on a few points, but I feel obligated to start with a response to the original question.
It?s really an amazing comment on this S&H model that we can approach this question at all. Every historian I?ve heard of would say it?s impossible to examine clearly the era you?re living in. But I really dislike ambiguous answers (probably a ?prophet? characteristic), so I?ll venture this:
Looking over the first post by S&H (which Justin Long has done a good job of reviewing), I have to say this is a catalyst, and could turn into a real Crisis period if it gets worse, but otherwise will be seen, in time, as a preliminary event. The horrendous nature of the event makes it hard to call it less than ?crisis-making?, and there?s much about it that?s unprecedented. At the same time, we?re living in a time when the unprecedented is the norm. Even though this attack is in so many ways the worst in our history, it doesn?t have behind it a threat to our very nature. At least as far as we know. Not yet. The enemy doesn?t appear to be a formidable one requiring a large mobilization of the whole population. Especially while all the world governments seem to be with us so far. The troops and material (and especially technology) we have don?t seem insufficient. We don?t have to fight harder, just smarter. All that?s required of most of us to be more diligent, and pull together on mutual aid. Officials are actually encouraging us to spend money frivolously.
What could change all that is another attack of shocking proportions, the uncovering of a series of planned attacks by a larger enemy force than we expected, or the involvement of American forces in a conflict greater than we?ve expected. Or economic repercussions counld spin out of control. As it says in T4T, any one of these seems unlikely, but are all together unlikely? Who knows? But as bad as the grief is, as bad as the economic situation is, I don?t see anything yet that gives us a feeling of being out of control, which I think is necessary to begin a full-fledged Crisis turning.
Certainly the responses of the country as a whole presage a Fourth Turning, with everyone eager to show solidarity, pulling together for comfort and protection. But I don?t see the generation types lined up right. I accept the S&H generational boundaries because they seem convincing to me based on their research on child-rearing styles, and how that shapes the cohorts as they grow up together. So with that, the oldest Millenials are only 19, not ready to take the major front-line role, and the oldest Boomers are 58, and not quite in charge.

BTW (it hasn?t been easy for me to decode all these shorthand notes ? is there a glossary somewhere?), I had the impression most of the ?heroes? of 911 were GenX, proving that the term ?hero? doesn?t only apply to the members of that archetype?s generations.

On 2001-10-02 07:50, madscientist wrote:
Another thing I noticed was that in MR.com, a similar message was made: http://www.millennialsrising.com/cgi...als/a.cgi/3--5

That post was just deleted as well, thanks for pointing it out. -- Craig

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: CraigCheslog on 2001-10-02 11:07 ]</font>

Hopefully, the webmaster caught his IP address.

why? to report it to the prankster's ISP for some sort of terms-of-service violation? is it a crime to play a harmless prank? or would the prankster be barred from posting here ever again?

nothing particularly negative came of it. it was just a hoax-- no biggie.


TK

Remember that Turnings are caused by Generations [S&H T4T]. The reason there is a "phase-in/phase-out" period is that, of course, not all people are born at the same time, nor do they move through walks of life together at the same pace. One way that we could measure the progress of a turning is to measure the number of people within a particular generational cohort who are at similar phases in life. For example, right although Bush is a Boomer, most of his advisors (I think) are Silents. So we could expect that a 4T would not be "full-blown" until most of the heads of government are Prophet/Boomers, right? And that would probably apply for Senators too, although perhaps we would look for Representatives to be mostly either Boomers or Nomads. Or, look at middle-management and CEO positions... are they dominated by Silent/Artists, or Boomer/Prophets or Nomad/13er?

On 2001-10-01 08:12, a poster posing as William Strauss and Neil Howe wrote:
We are pleased to annouce that Time magazine has offered to do a cover story on October 15, 2001 about our theory of The Fourth Turning. Due to skyrocketing sales of our books since the tragedy on September 11th,(now that many are asking if the fourth turning has really begun) Neil and I have been increasingly bombarded by the media with offers to do newspaper articles as well as TV and radio interviews. We are joyfully surprised by this and have been very encouraged and pleased of the increasing awareness and interest many people now have of our books and their predictions. We will keep you posted on our upcoming activities.

I'm glad that post was not from you, Strauss and Howe!. There is something unseemly about the use of the word "joyfully" in connection with increased sales of a book due to a horrible tragedy. However, out of politeness, I wasn't going to mention it.

We're still in the final fringes of 3T, bleeding over into 4T. Don't forget the problems with Social Security, which was the scenario that S&H spelled out - that will trigger about 2005. How will a society that is reeling from security concerns and $$$ being spent on that handle running into the Soc. Sec. problem in 2005...? And another issue to throw in the mix will be gun control and home-grown terrorists, particularly those who have a radical religious streak. Will they remind us of bin Laden? How will we react to that? Security plus Gun Control plus a religious element plus an economic crisis...

Carl Fitzpatric writes Looking over the first post by S&H (which Justin Long has done a good job of reviewing), I have to say this is a catalyst, and could turn into a real Crisis period if it gets worse, but otherwise will be seen, in time, as a preliminary event. The horrendous nature of the event makes it hard to call it less than ?crisis-making?, and there?s much about it that?s unprecedented. At the same time, we?re living in a time when the unprecedented is the norm. Even though this attack is in so many ways the worst in our history, it doesn?t have behind it a threat to our very nature. At least as far as we know. Not yet. The enemy doesn?t appear to be a formidable one requiring a large mobilization of the whole population. Especially while all the world governments seem to be with us so far. The troops and material (and especially technology) we have don?t seem insufficient. We don?t have to fight harder, just smarter. All that?s required of most of us to be more diligent, and pull together on mutual aid. Officials are actually encouraging us to spend money frivolously.

Welcome! A well thought out post, which I suspect reflects the views of many.

Part of the basic problem is that the current world order depends on western consumers to spend frivolously, while a good part of the world lives in want. If we don?t all spend frivolously, the whole economic system comes crashing down. It is plausible that we might yet sustain ?normal,? for a year, maybe ten. During the Cold War it was perhaps necessary to have a hyperactive economy to contain and suppress the Communist economy. I am of the opinion that the time is ripe to turn the system inside out, or will be in five to fifteen years. However, a good deal of both real effort and wishful thinking will go into maintaining the existing system.

We shall also have to see the real balance of power between the terrorists and the coalition. From a pure public relations point of view, bin Ladin ought to be holding fire until the first big action by the coalition. He might then respond. How many arrows are in his quiver? How good a defense can we manage? You may or may not be underestimating the security problem. We shall have to learn the hard way.

S&H note that turnings are caused by our responses, and responses are determined by generations. Therefore, one way to examine whether we are in a 3T/4T or not is to determine the generational makeup of those who determine national responses - e.g. political leaders, academics, business CEOs, journalists, artists.

I did a short scan of the governors of the states using a 1998 Almanac. This doesn't take into account the 1998 or 2000 elections so I'm probably off by a sizable amount, but this is what I have: 21 Artists, 28 Boomers, and 1 Hero. In the 1998/2000 elections probably more Boomers got added than Artists, but they are still are pretty evenly balanced. We ought to do a scan of the other categories as well but I couldn't do that tonight.

One other note: a fair number of the Artists (and the Boomers) - perhaps 10%? - were "right on the line" - e.g. born +/- 2 years of the "dividing date". Therefore they would probably be bleed-over Artist-Prophets, a mix of both... Contributing further to the "bleed-over" characteristics of our present time.

Christopher Hitchens' latest Minority Report (Of Sin, the Left, and Islamic Fascism)

http://www.thenation.com/doc.mhtml?i...tchens20010924

BIN LADEN HAS WON!

According to Joseph Farah

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/pr...TICLE_ID=24766