On 2002-02-12 07:26, Jenny Genser wrote:
Ten years ago, I tested as an "INTJ" before turning into an "ISTJ". Most of my posts have been very "S" -- picky, detail oriented. Well, bear with me while I put on my "N" hat and look at a big picture.
I'm talking about the concept of turning. We have the first storm indicating a change in seasons, then a transition where the mood fluctuates between turning "archetypical" moods, then finally a "Social Moment" when people finally realize that THINGS ARE DIFFERENT and We're Not Going Back.
I think that is the core of much of our discussion on whether we were are still in 3T or in early 4T. (Note -- this does not apply to Marc Lamb's argument, which
By the Numbers he argues that there are two many darn Silents for us to be in 4T. That is another issue). In some ways, it sure feels like more 3T but....
I'd like to look at past turnings. I'll start with the one that some people I know still remember -- the last 4T. From what I've read and heard, the Social Moment when people realized that We're Not Going Back was probably in 1932, when banks started failing and unemployment was very high. In 1930 and 1931, people were still hoping that Things Would Improve and we could go back to 1929. By 1932, people realized that 1929 was not coming back and they were ready for something new -- hence the New Deal FDR regeneracy.
From what I understand, after VJ Day, when Japan surrendered, people expected that when all the GIs returned home, unemployment would skyrocket and we'd return to a Depression. Of course, that's not what happened, but there must have been a couple of years when people waited for the shoe to drop before realizing that Good Times Were Here At Last. Any one for a vote on what event triggered "1T" (I nominate VJ Day) and when the "Social Moment" was when people realized that we're out of Crisis? (I nominate Harry Truman's re-election).
For 1T to 2T, people like me who remember the mid-Sixties remember the optimism that persisted despite the loss of JFK. Of course, there were 2T like things happening too, such as the Civil Rights marches, etc... but I know an awful lot of nice liberals like my parents saw it as the continuation of the March of Progress that started with the fall of Naziism in Germany and the establishment of stable democracy throughout Western Europe and Japan.
So I'd say that 2T probably started on 11/22/63 (that's as good a date as any and it sure was dramatic) but the Social Moment probably didn't come until 1967-1968. Of course, it was ratified with the tossing out of LBJ's proxy, HHH and the election of Nixon.
The start of 3T has been argued. I think S&H err in using 1984 as the start, because I view it more as a Social Moment. I would view the Catalyst being either the election of Ronald Reagan in 1980 or the passing of much of his legislative agenda -- specifically the tax cuts -- in 1981.
Which leads me to the 911 Attacks. After a catalyst, life can return to "normal" but Things Are Different. That is the case now. Brian Rush has pointed out that the furor over Enron is much more substantive -- how to we protect people's retirement savings rather than who got money from Enron. Life continues on, but I think we will realize around in 2004 that it ain't 1999 any more.
Of course, there have been Big Events mid-turn, such as World War I, Prohibition, Nixon's impeachment and resignation, the explosion of the Challenger, the Fall of the Berlin Wall, the McCarthy hearings, the Gulf War, etc... Maybe as Marc argues, 911 will fall into that list. But I don't think so.