On 2002-02-05 17:57, Eric A Meece wrote:
Wow msm such hostility :???:

I guess YOU are still an Xer at heart anyway! A bunch of tough-guy survivalists, vieing for living space in the jungle of chaotic America. No family or civic consciousness there!

Plus you seem to think Bush really won the election :lol: :lol:

Legally, he did win the election.

In terms of the popular vote, he may actually have won the election. Nobody knows.

Just a little reminder. :smile:

Hopeful Cynic, I can certainly understand your 'darker fear'. After all, the Revolution was a British Empire civil war, in which the secessionists won. The Glorious Revolution had a brief English civil war as it's climax. The Armada Crisis left England's primary enemy potentially as dangerous as ever. Also, earlier you mentioned the possibility that neither side would yield as we move more definitely into 4T - exactly what happened in 1860 and 1861.
And with some American left-wingers talking about their own country the way Cato the Elder did about Carthage, I see all too much room for this 4T to end badly. I can only hope and pray that it doesn't.
(Footnote: Cato the Elder was a 2nd C. BCE Roman Senator famous for ending all of his speeches, regardless of the topic, with, "And I am also of the opinion that Carthage must be destroyed!")

On 2002-02-17 00:25, HopefulCynic68 wrote:


The Missionaries were probably almost unique as Prophet generations go, in precisely this settlement. One of my darker fears is that it will turn out that it wasn't the Civil War Cycle that was anomalous, but in fact that it was the Great Power/WW II Cycle that was freakishly successful.

Now that's a troubling thought! If that were true, then we'd all be one generation behind.

Jason B writes...

As the shock wears more and more off and seems more and more distant, 911 becomes almost forgettable to many people and firm Unraveling actors' roles and generational images of the generations keep the national mood from moving forward, in fact DEFINING this as a Third Turning. The fall of the towers was a jolt in itself, but the ages of all the generations in the grand scheme of things are keeping anything new from stapling a mood down because with everyone still filling the same stage they did before, a new perspective on problems unrelated to terrorism cannot be met.

Good first post. Welcome! If I use your post as an excuse to repeat my own agenda, please don't just fade away.

You position is all too plausible. The other perspective is that a pause of a few years while the general population hopes and wishes the new problems simply fade away is part of the process. I think it was Jenny who summarized that possibility a while back.

Will the terrorists be able to regroup and recreate a siege mentality? So long as Israel and the United States can continue to use military force to keep their populace reasonably safe, there is no real temptation for a major upheaval. While I hardly think we've stamped out world terror, the terrorists have not been able to put together a series of life threatening and publicity gathering successes. If they do not manage to do so, we are apt to fade back into 3T mode. The possibility is there that a new catalyst might redefine our perception of what the major problem to be solved must be.

I'm dubious about a large change in perspective. Major catalysts do not exist in isolation. There is a string of escalating protests, increasingly violent, that precedes most such conflicts. Isolated incidents are apt to be treated as isolated incidents. A string like Somalia, Middle East, Balkans, Lebanon, OKC, the African Embassies, USS Cole, September 11, and anthrax is very very formidable, dwarfing the efforts of Sam Adams and John Brown. Our current view of where the world is might be defined, or ought to be defined, by this spiral of violence. As I have often stated, the economic, religious, ethnic, military and ecological factors contributing to this spiral intertwine. One cannot seriously address one aspect without looking at all of them. While a major incident illuminating other world problems could certainly occur outside of this spiral, could it make the spiral and it's emotions go away? What set of world problems needs be resolved more than the Middle East spiral?

How long we can stay out of 4T depends primarily on terrorist capability and aggressiveness. So long as we believe we can win the war on terror while maintaining a peace time economic and military footing, and without addressing root causes, we are not in 4T. Sam Adams and John Brown wouldn't let the moment pass. I don't think the moment will in the long term pass.

One of the major US news organizations, I forget which, aired a segment filmed inside Saudi Arabia. They are apparently dithering as much as we. Some of them are still in denial, saying there is no proof the majority of the September 11th hijackers were Saudi. The troubling segment was a multimedia presentation, put on with the acting king in attendance, broadcast over state TV to all of Saudi Arabia. The music was martial. The images alternated between Saladin's counter-crusade that kicked the West out of the Middle East, and Palestinian 'suicide bombers' and 'terrorists.' The implication is that the Palestinians are really freedom fighters, not terrorists. The presentation ended with 'This is the sword of Saladin! It must soon be drawn again!'

As I see it, the Middle East could blow up in two directions. The population could demand human rights, democracy and/or economic advancement from the Oil Monarchies. The population could demand land for the Palestinians, or that the Jews should be driven into the sea. Forcing both demands seems more plausible long term than neither. The status quo seems unstable. The Saudi Crown Prince is apparently trying to play both sides, maintaining friendship with the United States while keeping their people focused more on hating Israel and the West than overthrowing royal tyranny. This is a dangerous tight rope act.

Another discontinuity bothers me. During the early US bombing of Afghanistan, Arab news networks were showing images of civilian casualties - collateral damage from US bombing - whenever they could. They focused primarily on dead and mutilated women and children. There was no lack of such pictures. Even western news sources put Afghan civilian casualties in the same ball park as September 11th civilian casualties. While Arab TV was showing Arab dead, the US networks were using Ground Zero as the default backdrop for their news anchors. Sex and violence improve ratings. It is natural for news organizations everywhere to boost ratings by working their audience into a war frenzy. It is profitable to do this by turning enemies of one's culture into bad guys wearing black hats.

On my web site, I have a brief article on creating interesting conflicts for role playing games. A brief exert follows, saying the creator of good fictional conflicts has to get under the skin of the bad guys. My example is set in the Wild West, where the cowboys, farmers, Indians, cavalry, crooked sheriff and railroad robber baron are each pushing different agendas...

The shooting has started. A respected member of your peer group is dead. Your way of life is threatened. Your means of feeding your family is not secure. Your surviving peers are standing with guns at ready listening. It is time to make a speech. (These are the 1800s. They are really big on speeches.) Is there any doubt at all that you can convince your peers that you are the Good Guys wearing White Hats? If you declined, would not someone else step forward to make as good a speech? What values will you invoke? What past battles will you mention, to steal a little glory? And is there any doubt at all that the opposing group deserves to burn in Hellfire Everlasting?

Of course, any good game master has to be ready to drop one leader, and pick up the mind set and persona of another. Yep, across the valley another leader is making another speech. Repeat the above exercise again, and again, and again...

Samuel Adams... John Brown... Osama bin Ladin... George W. Bush...

That's where we are at. The media and government can increase ratings and popularity by working their audiences into a war frenzy. They could present and translate the news and perspectives presented by other cultures, but this would not improve ratings. They could show the images that are making Arabs angry on our TVs, but they don't. Thus, the general public - lacking the initiative to seek out foreign perspectives - is being kept in the dark. The world continues to become more dangerous.

But not yet. Through most of the the prior high, awakening and unraveling, a peace organization kept a 'doomsday clock' showing how close we were to nuclear annihilation. The clock was for the most part broken, stuck at five minutes to midnight for several decades. We might start another similar clock. By S&H theory, such clocks reach midnight roughly every four score and seven years. At the moment, the hands seem to be moving backwards. The immediate tension levels are relaxing.

This is illusion.



_________________
We shall not have Freedom from Fear, everywhere in the world, while we forget the other three.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Bob Butler 54 on 2002-02-17 09:52 ]</font>

Welocome Jensen B. '78.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tim Walker on 2002-02-17 20:19 ]</font>

Welcome, Jensen. Very nice post.

However, I still think that we are in 4T, if we go by the book Generations, then we are not yet in 4T.

Sure, all of the generations haven't moved totally into their 4T-era roles yet, but the catalyst doesn't transform the generations. The catalyst only marks a period of separation, in which the roles begin to change. The regeneracy is when the roles have changed.

I think that we are in 4T because we have ended the 3T trend towards the decay of civic confidence. The anti-civic trend has been broken. When a turning changes, especially a dynamist one (such as a 2T or 4T), the change will first be deceptive. It doesn't make itself known until the regeneracy. Even though the Great Awakening 2T (3S-2T for third saeculum, second turning) was marked to begin in 1727 (I would say that it began in 1726, as that's the year the first riots began) and ended in 1746, the main event itself did not begin until 1734, climaxed in 1741, and ended in 1743.

Sometimes, the social moment coincides with the catalyst, as in the Glorious Revolution 4T and American Revolution 4T. But for the last 4T, the generations didn't completely step into their roles until 1932, which was the start of the social moment.

Let's look at the last dynamist turning. Kennedy's assassination didn't change the generations overnight either. In fact, each generation didn't fully step into its role until 1967. Boomers didn't suddenly become a spiritual, riotus bunch. In fact, most people would say that High-era life lasted until 1967. The significance of late 1963 was that it broke the 1T era trend towards more conformity and more cultural staleness.

When a turning changes to a dynamist one, the period between the catalyst and the regeneracy is one in which the generations begin to change their life roles. The regeneracy is when society realizes what is happening, and acts to push society towards change.

Even though the generations haven't totally changed, I noticed a sharp change in each of them. The Silent still have power, but their influence is becoming more and more diminished. In the regeneracy, the Silent will completely fall from power. The Silent are trying to stop the nation from falling completely over the edge, but they are not winning the battle. The Bush Administration is intent on expanding its War on Terror, even if it means sparking World War III.

The Boomers have definitely changed, and they are heading towards the "Gray Champion" personality. Boomers are connecting with their spirituality again. Society is refusing to defer its problems. Society is working towards solutions, once and for all. We are not acting towards "total war" yet, and that phase normally happens deeper into a 4T, especially as we near the climax. The Boomers, however, are moving beyond their 3T era skirmishes, and are actually arguing about things that matter. It is also instructive to say that the Boomers in office are supports of the old regime. Because of the corporate control of politics, it is likely that they will attempt to keep these same Boomers in power. If the Boomers who support reform and revolution do not gain power in the elections of 2002 and 2004, then it would not be good for society, as it would usher in a period of violence and disorder. At this time, the Green Party is growing very rapidly, and has shot up since 9/11. The Green Party is gaining more power at the local levels of government, which means that local leadership is becoming infiltrated by the 1960s and 1970s core awakeners. Boomers are starting to even give up their SUVs. What we are likely seeing is that many Boomers are finally starting to end their 3T-era detachment, and are starting to rise up and live up to their ideals. The oldest Boomers are definitely starting to feel the effects of age. The leading wedge of any generation is an indicator of what is happening. Everything starts with them first. What are Boomers in their upper 50s doing? There are definitely signs of change. They haven't totally embraced it, but at least they are trying it out. By the year 2003 or 2004, we shall start seeing the Gray Champion mentality begin to appear as these cohorts reach 60. If the nation continues to fall, then the Boomers will be forced to mature.

As for Millies, they have definitely changed. Millies have become a teamworking generation, and have already proved themselves at the local levels. As for Millies and the military, we have to remind ourselves that we experienced 1929, not 1941. As Brian Bush states, the GI generation had an anti-war movement that was MUCH more effective that the Boomer movement. Mike Males demonstrated that GIs had a negative reputation among many people even during the mid 1930s. And besides, Millies haven't been summoned yet for anything. Millies have definitely shown an ability to organize and get things done, to the amazement of elders. Millies are developing a good kid reputation. Just look at the large response to the Anti-Drug Superbowl ads, which tarketed kids.

So we are at the stage between the catalyst and the regeneracy, by which we will learn our new life cycle phases, and begin to act upon them. A society doesn't go from 1929 to 1941. It has to congeal first. So while the mood has shifted, don't expect for society to propel itself until 2005.

On 2002-02-17 09:43, Croaker'39 wrote:

On 2002-02-17 00:25, HopefulCynic68 wrote:


The Missionaries were probably almost unique as Prophet generations go, in precisely this settlement. One of my darker fears is that it will turn out that it wasn't the Civil War Cycle that was anomalous, but in fact that it was the Great Power/WW II Cycle that was freakishly successful.

Now that's a troubling thought! If that were true, then we'd all be one generation behind.

Well, we are, in a way. When I say I fear that it was the Depression/WW II 4T that was freakishly successfuly, that doesn't mean that the Civil War wasn't exceptionally bad.

Since no Civic Generation emerged from that Cycle, if S&H are right, that means that all Generations since then might be said to be 'one off'. Had the Progressives been Civic, then the Missionaries would have been Adaptive/Artist, the Lost would have been Prophet, the G.I.s Nomads, the Silent Civics, the Boomers would have been Artists, and Xers would have been Prophets (I guess maybe there is an upside to this mess! At least I escaped being a Prophet!) :smile:

Jensen, welcome to the board. I think you're the first '78 cohort I've seen here.

Anyway, that was an excellent analysis of where the generations stand now at the brink of the 4T. You obviously have a good knowledge of S&H's theory. Watch out, though--this board can be *very* addictive! :smile:

I just want to make a few small points.

Jensen, please use paragraphs. An otherwise well-written post (as yours is) is hard to read without it being broken up into smaller digestible pieces. It's hard on the eyes.

Although you are correct that the generations have not *quite* lined up into the correct 4T life-stage yet, this doesn't necessarily mean a 4T can't happen yet. I believe it has, but I won't go into the reasons why right now. However, turnigns can and do come prematurely (the Civil War anomaly is the best example of this), before the generations are really ready for their proper roles. Unfortunately, this usually means a bad outcome, one that is less easily recovered from when it's finally over.

I agree with you about Boomers and Millennials not being quite ready yet. Boomers are still too narcisstic and culture-war obsessed, and are not the wise elders yet (well, Giuiliani might be an exception here, I could easily see him as the Gray Champion); and Millennials are still mostly kids, none are even old enough yet to drink! But I think with Millennials, S&H have missed something. Sure, there are the good-soldier Scout types that S&H talk about, and I *do* see a lot of those around. However, about half of Millennials appear to be the anarchistic sort--and they are dressing like Xers but acting like 60s Boomers. Of course, their role (in my view) is to tear down what is left of the old saeculum. Only then, will the soldier-like type be able to perform their work of beginning to build the new society.

Remember, lots of GIs, back in the 30s (when the last 4T had already started with the Depression--were pretty darn rebellious. A large number of them were Communists back then.

I do think we have entered the 4T, and it seems to me that only the Xers have (for the most part) moved into the midlife stage. Of course, late wavers in their 20s are not "middle aged" and of course are still going to want to party and have fun for a while. But it seems to my thinking that those Xers over 30 (which comprise over half now) are settling down quickly and willingly into domestic roles and parenthood. Even those Xers in their 20s seem to be marrying and having kids much earlier than first wave Xers and Boomers did.

I also disagree that they are not patriotic. Lots of Xers I have heard (including on this board) say that 911 was the first political event that really *meant* something to them, that really made them want to do something for the first time to improve the world. Sure, Xers may not be into the trappings of patritotism such as the flag-waving and anthem-reciting as much as Boomers are, but that doesnt mean they are not patriotic and don't care. The true Heroes right now (the firefighters and rescuers) are mainly Xers, and in fact, if we are in the 4T (as I think we are), we may need to move the birthdates for the first Millennials back a few years, perhaps as far back as 1979 or 1980.

The Civil War also came too early (and the Crisis itself was only five years long), and Nomads suddenly found themselves thrust into Hero roles. In that saeculum, there was no Hero type at all, with Nomads having to fill in the slack, and what would have been Heroes morphing into Artists.

In any case, Jensen, you have a good grasp on the theory and you make some good points.

HopefulC--If S&H saeculae are real things in nature, and if they have rotational periods with oscillating cycles, then I become worried about a force term called angular momentum: spin-force, it will test the integrity of our structural fibre, and there seems to be no shortage of structure tests these days. Rarely do we see such profound symbolism as toppling the WTC. Jericho?s Revenge! Soon enough, I fear, this so-called Millennial saeculum will have reason to change its name. Into what, I don't know. How long can we go before we effectively redefine ourselves?

Which riots got started in 1726? Do you have an url for it?

On 2002-02-17 12:07, Mike Alexander '59 wrote:
Which riots got started in 1726? Do you have an url for it?

http://www.seanet.com/Users/pamur/revo.html

Poor people's riot in Pennsylvania, 1726.

Thanks Robert, that's a good resource.

I don't know exactly how to put this so I'll just come out and say it. Are you people crazy? I know that being able to quote others on this forum at length is cool. But, I have gotten exremely tired of paging down over endless quotes to get to a one sentence reply. Do you folks realize how much of this forum is taken up with quotes and quotes of quotes? Think about it.

The essence is contained in just a few sentences. I appreciate it more than most perhaps because I lurked on this forum for many months before I ever posted. There are more of us out there who would make a comment but our dialogue is lost in the endless quotes within quotes. Maybe you don't even realize that you are doing it. I understand that it is important to make sure that we all get it. Believe me, we do. And I think that one reason that you do it is to ensure some continuaty. OK. It is there. This 4T forum is a small world. I read all the pages before I ever posted.

We are all focused on this. Give us some credit. We could be in a chat room somewhere. You people have become important to me. I believe that you represent a special segment of our population. You are aware and caring. You can make a real impact on the outcome of this fouth turning. I believe that you already have. Please don't get caught up in process at the expense of substance.

Do you understand what I'm saying? Madscientist, your links to other pages is great. They add fullness to our discusion. Marc Lamb, your point of view supplemented with scripture quotations is valuable to the discussion. Mr.Saari, your esoterica with quotations is much appreciated. The rest of you contribute insight, humour and food for thought.

Please don't over dilute it all with the stuff of quotes of earlier posts ad nauseum. If the rest of us aren't sure to what you are referring. Let us research it ourselves by going back and reading former posts. We can do it. We are not helpless. Let's get on with it.

This is something that I have thought about for a long time. I hope that my comments aren't taken as a harangue only. I hope only to further this very valuable discussion. In no way do I imply that what has gone on in this forum is trivial. I just think that we can get carried away with the technicalities of form to the possible detriment of substance. Is this a 3T attitude or a 4T attitude?

So has this Bill Murray with the History Page(that Robert linked to) ever posted at T4T?
He certainly has done his homework and more.

This is a democratic net and forum. Buzzard's comments are good for this discussion. Sometimes new-comers are frightened off....and everyone's viewpoint is important.

Jensen B, that was an oustanding analysis of the core question of this topic. You clearly understand our theory well. (Have you read Generations or Millennials Rising?) Your analysis of the generations is insightful and mostly correct. I'm delighted that you joined the forum, and I look forward to reading what else you have to say.

Neil and I still believe that it's too early to conclude whether we're still in a third or fourth turning.

On 2002-02-15 14:39, Marc S. Lamb wrote:

BTW, I wish to thank Jesse Manoogian for his astute analysis. Well done, sir! Thank you.

You're definitely welcome. I, for one, couldn't see any connection.

Another thing: msm said that it was too early yet to tell whether this was a 3T or a 4T. Yet you have insisted with 100% surety for months and months that there's no way we can be in a 4T. Marc Lamb's ultimate goal is to make it abundantly clear to everybody that we are in the Unravelling. If Marc were to hide as another poster, he would no doubt make sure that that "alter" poster agreed fully we were in a 3T and advanced that hypothesis. Having an identity of an uncertain person is just not something Marc could bear to do; it would go against what he's practically here for. Just another thought.

Hmmmmm, I may not like msm, but Marc and I seem to get along just fine.

Neil and I still believe that it's too early to conclude whether we're still in a third or fourth turning.

But you must have conjectures, yes? I can understand that you wouldn't want to share them here, but I can imagine that three years from now (when it will be clear whether we be 3T or 4T, that one of you treats the other to dinner (or a cognac) if it still be 3T and the other does likewise if it turned out that 911 marked 4T. :lol:

Anyone else have bets going?

One point about 3T versus 4T: A dramatic event can temporarily push us into the next zeitgeist if we're near a real Turning. It is the real thing, even if it doesn't last. After 9/11, America snapped into a mood I can't ever remember experiencing directly, so it was probably authentic 4T. However, it did fade significantly -- not all the way, since we don't hear any cynical jokes (yet).

Personally, I think we're becalmed. We may still be cynical, but we've lost the cynical hype so common in the late 90s. It has been ground down to a nub. Inflated promises of industry growth have given way to grim financial audits. The music industry is quite literally becalmed -- there are no new styles coming into view and sales continue to slide. Nobody acts like Sept 11th is funny but our response seems to dribble down to nothing. Some films are exploring 4T themes, but they coexist along with the (fading) action film, gross-out, etc. Tech has become boring even as IT shops announce they're not looking for new employees. The next (yawn) big thing (snooze) is just around the corner.

Things seem "burnt out". There's little or no liberal/conservative response to the rise in governmental power or the huge losses of money that appear to have occured in the worldwide financial system. I guess (snore) there will be a recovery in the second half of the year. So what? Highly skilled people have dropped into low-paying jobs with little comment, and being unemployed seems to have its advantages (for the unmarried at least). Business has gotten smacked pretty hard by the current slowdown but consumers have hardly felt a thing.

It's like the whole country could use a vacation...

The real test would be the US response another attack comparable to Sept. 11, or something of similar magnitude. If we're still 3T, there would be a bit of 'ho-hum' about it. The reaction of the country would seem "staged" to some extent -- exactly what Xers continue to point out about our present-day mood. But if we're 4T, things would really hit the fan and beome horribly *real* all over again -- and stay that way.

Sometimes I think that we within these forums are the foreshadowers of the foreshadowing of the fore-T. :smile:

Barbara, do you think that we could be little canaries in our cages being carried down into the mines? :smile:

I recall Strauss and Howe writing about the country being in a sort of becalmed mood just after being buffeted by the coming storm.

On 2002-02-19 16:18, alan wrote:
Barbara, do you think that we could be little canaries in our cages being carried down into the mines? :smile:

:grin:



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Barbara on 2002-02-19 22:13 ]</font>

On 2002-02-19 21:41, Tim Walker wrote:
I recall Strauss and Howe writing about the country being in a sort of becalmed mood just after being buffeted by the coming storm.

I remember reading the same thing, in 'Generations'.

go ahead.
move the boundaries back.
good for you.

seriously, why am i even here?
because im bored?
theories?
whatever.
heres my advice Fourth Turners
write your own book :smile: