9-11 was a 3T moment. All of the horrors of that day have been thoroughly absorbed into the American consciousness, but America has moved on - to singing competitions, desperate housewives, gay marriage, and other ways to while the hours away. It's 2005, this is no regeneracy.
The national mood has only soured in the past year or two though. The boneheaded fascists talk more about evil liberals than evil terrorists. This is no American Revolution-Civil War-Great Depression type crisis. It's depressing, but not a depression.
How are the babies of today being impacted other than going through greater security at the airport or seeing nasty images on TV?
Other than the immediate New York area, and the poor families of soldiers killed in Iraq, the phoney fourth crisis has manifested itself in flag waving dopery and electoral evangelical bliss, led by America's largest (and I also mean fattest) state.
So, as we used to say at the end of every sentence, whatever.

Devil`s advocat wrote:

Democrats have been longing for a return of this sort Gray Champion New Deal ever since. And, thus, while those evil Republicans are still in power there ain't no way we be 4T (save for the fact that the 4T will be much like that in Germany during the Nazi reign of horror, if the Republicans do rule

I think you are right. Because if we are in a crisis and Bush is reelected, then for good or for bad, maybe Bush represents the future and Kerry represents the past.

Tom Mazanec wrote:

By this time in the last 4T it was 1933 and we were starting the Hundred Days. Nothing really comparable has happened (and I was one of the fervent "yesers" on this question for a long time

Because Bush was elected in 2000. He started his poltic of radical change already before 2005.

Blue Stater wrote:

All of the horrors of that day have been thoroughly absorbed into the American consciousness, but America has moved on - to singing competitions, desperate housewives, gay marriage, and other ways to while the hours away. It's 2005, this is no regeneracy.

And 1933 America had moved on to King Kong, Tarzan and started drinking. Hey we had the "Lord of the Ring"-triologie. If this aren`t 4T-movies then I don`t no.

Originally Posted by Blue Stater

9-11 was a 3T moment. All of the horrors of that day have been thoroughly absorbed into the American consciousness, but America has moved on - to singing competitions, desperate housewives, gay marriage, and other ways to while the hours away. It's 2005, this is no regeneracy.
The national mood has only soured in the past year or two though. The boneheaded fascists talk more about evil liberals than evil terrorists. This is no American Revolution-Civil War-Great Depression type crisis. It's depressing, but not a depression.
How are the babies of today being impacted other than going through greater security at the airport or seeing nasty images on TV?
Other than the immediate New York area, and the poor families of soldiers killed in Iraq, the phoney fourth crisis has manifested itself in flag waving dopery and electoral evangelical bliss, led by America's largest (and I also mean fattest) state.
So, as we used to say at the end of every sentence, whatever.

I agree with you 100%

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

Originally Posted by Blue Stater

9-11 was a 3T moment. All of the horrors of that day have been thoroughly absorbed into the American consciousness, but America has moved on - to singing competitions, desperate housewives, gay marriage, and other ways to while the hours away. It's 2005, this is no regeneracy.
The national mood has only soured in the past year or two though. The boneheaded fascists talk more about evil liberals than evil terrorists. This is no American Revolution-Civil War-Great Depression type crisis. It's depressing, but not a depression.
How are the babies of today being impacted other than going through greater security at the airport or seeing nasty images on TV?
Other than the immediate New York area, and the poor families of soldiers killed in Iraq, the phoney fourth crisis has manifested itself in flag waving dopery and electoral evangelical bliss, led by America's largest (and I also mean fattest) state.
So, as we used to say at the end of every sentence, whatever.

I agree with you 100%

I agree with the basic sentiment: The 3T most likely survived 9/11.

Originally Posted by freivolk

I?m always surprised how many people on this board argue 9/11 hasn?t started the fourth turning. Mostly they say : "If we really have a crisis, were is national unity, a stronger state, etc. etc." I think some people expect the end results of a crisis at their beginning. It?s a bit like when somebody in the USA in 1933 would say: "If we really have a crisis since 1929, why no US-troops are landing in the Normandy."

But there are some of us who take a different line of argument. I suspect we did not enter a 4T because I still see A LOT of 3T behavior in our society, because what 4T-ish type things that have occurred have 3T analogues with the 1917-1920 period, and because the last four American 4T openers operated as rapidly cascading traumas that 2001-2004 just doesn't compare to in my opinion.

Now on that last point, I am open to the possibility, most convincingly put forward by T4T poster Mike Alexander, but also others, that not all 4T's open with a BANG, or what all call "dooziness". On the whole, I disagree with his application of that to our case right now, but I must admit he has a good argument.

I still have seen nothing since 9/11 to dissuade me from the idea that the heart of any T4T crisis is a paradigm shift that redefines liberalism and conservatism and changes which approach will be used in the country's approach to problems.

Bush's answer to 9/11 itself was to ignore the use of international cooperation that has been the heart of foreign policy since WWII in favor of a new policy of the US super-power unilaterally doing what we see as our own best interests. Paradigm shift.

I told myself that we could not be in T4T if Bush lost the election or if the Democrats won back the Congress. Now, starting right out with Social Security, I believe the country will reassess all of the decisions that we have made in the country since the last T3T. (Isn't the income tax amendment in 1909 is a bit early to be on the list?)

Trent Lott has proven that no one wants Jim Crow back. No fault divorce seems safe enough, as does birth control, despite pharamacists who refuse to sell them. These don't appear to qualify as too liberal. Feeding tubes didn't show up until the 50's and we are watching the debate going on in Florida (and the rest of the country)

We will reconsider everything and part of the crisis will be a direct result of this process. The good news is that it won't be the Boomers who have the final say. That will be up to Xers and Millies--if they are paying attention. That is why S&H say that what comes out of a crisis is never what is expected going in.

Peter Gibbons wrote:

But there are some of us who take a different line of argument. I suspect we did not enter a 4T because I still see A LOT of 3T behavior in our society, because what 4T-ish type things that have occurred have 3T analogues with the 1917-1920 period, and because the last four American 4T openers operated as rapidly cascading traumas that 2001-2004 just doesn't compare to in my opinion.

Now on that last point, I am open to the possibility, most convincingly put forward by T4T poster Mike Alexander, but also others, that not all 4T's open with a BANG, or what all call "dooziness". On the whole, I disagree with his application of that to our case right now, but I must admit he has a good argument.

I collected some arguments, why we could be in a 4T but stiil have to deal with 3T behavior. I?m not sure I can present them now all in one post.

1. Who read my other posts will probably have discovered, that I have some kind of "Carthago esse delendam". It?s the demographic, stupid. I think the fast paradigmen-change in the 20/30 (and in the crisis before) was supported by the tradional population-dynamic. Younger Generation much stronger then the older Genrations, which were reduced fast. So the Hero-Genration had already as voters a heavy influence of the public-discurs while the older generation and their behaviour faded away fast.
Today the older generations lives longer, stay longer strong, while the younger generation are smaller because of the sinking birth-rate. So in questions of change, society becomes more "tr?ge". (I don?t know the english word.) Society isn?t a fast clipper anymore, it?s a supertanker. Boomers still want to fight their battles of the sixties, Gen X still don?t want the state involved in their affairs, Millenials are not strong enough to dominate the public-discurs. Off course 9/11 change the point of view of many boomers and Gen X (and I think this is the reason Bush got reelected) but it not change it for all of them.
I think a good example for such a dynamic is France during the last crisis. Even as the Wehrmacht was marching on Paris, the "Ghost of Dreyfus" still dominated the public-discurs in France. To some degree he lasted till the 1960.

I forgot to mention why I took France as a example. Because it was the first great western Nation, where the population started to stagnate.

Originally Posted by freivolk

"Carthago esse delendam".

One little nit-picky thing that nags at me every time I see that line quoted: the word "perdita" is always left out. The result, when translated into English, is, "Carthage must be..." ("Destroyed" always being left out.)

Originally Posted by MaryT

I still have seen nothing since 9/11 to dissuade me from the idea that the heart of any T4T crisis is a paradigm shift that redefines liberalism and conservatism and changes which approach will be used in the country's approach to problems.

Keep in mind such paradigms were in some hefty flux in 1917-1920, and in lesser but significant flux in the 1898-1907 period (or so), but did not signal a 4T paradigm shift.

I still think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that what we've experienced since 9/11 is at most a 3T precursor in relation to what's to come.

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by MaryT

I still have seen nothing since 9/11 to dissuade me from the idea that the heart of any T4T crisis is a paradigm shift that redefines liberalism and conservatism and changes which approach will be used in the country's approach to problems.

Keep in mind such paradigms were in some hefty flux in 1917-1920, and in lesser but significant flux in the 1898-1907 period (or so), but did not signal a 4T paradigm shift.

I still think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that what we've experienced since 9/11 is at most a 3T precursor in relation to what's to come.

I'm slowly coming to agree with you, Sean. It's not the celebrity circuses, or reality TV... both of which could easily carry on into a 4T. Rather, it's the ongoing (escalating?) feeding frenzy in the housing market...an Iraq War pursued on the cheap without Crisis-level ruthlessness, which somehow seems to be postponing rather than resolving something big... and a barely-but-growing economy...that are beginning to convince me that we still have a few years left of 3T. George W. Bush is beginning to look like a bizarre cross between Herbert Hoover and Woodrow Wilson, with Bill Clinton as Warren Harding.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons

Originally Posted by MaryT

I still have seen nothing since 9/11 to dissuade me from the idea that the heart of any T4T crisis is a paradigm shift that redefines liberalism and conservatism and changes which approach will be used in the country's approach to problems.

Keep in mind such paradigms were in some hefty flux in 1917-1920, and in lesser but significant flux in the 1898-1907 period (or so), but did not signal a 4T paradigm shift.

I still think it's entirely possible, if not likely, that what we've experienced since 9/11 is at most a 3T precursor in relation to what's to come.

I'm slowly coming to agree with you, Sean. It's not the celebrity circuses, or reality TV... both of which could easily carry on into a 4T. Rather, it's the ongoing (escalating?) feeding frenzy in the housing market...an Iraq War pursued on the cheap without Crisis-level ruthlessness, which somehow seems to be postponing rather than resolving something big... and a barely-but-growing economy...that are beginning to convince me that we still have a few years left of 3T. George W. Bush is beginning to look like a bizarre cross between Herbert Hoover and Woodrow Wilson, with Bill Clinton as Warren Harding.

The best argument IMO for the late 3T is the near identicality of the electoral maps in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. If we crossed from 3T to 4T somewhere in between then it makes no sense that the two elections produced almost the same results. That's practically a scientific conclusion.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

The best argument IMO for the late 3T is the near identicality of the electoral maps in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. If we crossed from 3T to 4T somewhere in between then it makes no sense that the two elections produced almost the same results. That's practically a scientific conclusion.

Except that it's a turning, not necessarily a seismic shift. The election results in 1980 and 1984 were closer to each other than those of 1976 or 1988, too.

Originally Posted by JTaber 1972

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

The best argument IMO for the late 3T is the near identicality of the electoral maps in the 2000 and 2004 presidential elections. If we crossed from 3T to 4T somewhere in between then it makes no sense that the two elections produced almost the same results. That's practically a scientific conclusion.

Except that it's a turning, not necessarily a seismic shift. The election results in 1980 and 1984 were closer to each other than those of 1976 or 1988, too.

A Fourth Turning is when a seismic shift in politics occurs. It's not surprising when that doesn't happen in a Third Turning; the 3T shift is when the 2T seismic shift in culture is settling down. But for a predicted 4T, if there are no big political changes then something's wrong. The closest we've got is "new preemptive doctrine" and "Department of Homeland Security." Really small potatoes reactions considering that something was going to happen in response to a terror attack of a 9/11 magnitude. But in terms of politics, these acts by the administration deepened the partisan mood and failed to create a new electoral arrangement.

For a 4T electoral shift, compare 1928 and 1932. Amazing!

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

For a 4T electoral shift, compare 1928 and 1932. Amazing!

Given the low performance of Democrats since 1968, the election of 1992 was similarly amazing, when compared to the elections of 1988 or 1984. I still can't believe that Clinton won Georgia and Montana!

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

George W. Bush is beginning to look like a bizarre cross between Herbert Hoover and Woodrow Wilson, with Bill Clinton as Warren Harding.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

A Fourth Turning is when a seismic shift in politics occurs. It's not surprising when that doesn't happen in a Third Turning; the 3T shift is when the 2T seismic shift in culture is settling down . . . but in terms of politics, these acts by the administration deepened the partisan mood and failed to create a new electoral arrangement.

Agreed.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

A Fourth Turning is when a seismic shift in politics occurs. It's not surprising when that doesn't happen in a Third Turning; the 3T shift is when the 2T seismic shift in culture is settling down. But for a predicted 4T, if there are no big political changes then something's wrong. The closest we've got is "new preemptive doctrine" and "Department of Homeland Security." Really small potatoes reactions considering that something was going to happen in response to a terror attack of a 9/11 magnitude. But in terms of politics, these acts by the administration deepened the partisan mood and failed to create a new electoral arrangement.

But without September 11th as a catalyst, this administration would not have been able to get nearly as much as it wanted. That's enough of a shift for me, even if the election came out almost the same.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Rather, it's the ongoing (escalating?) feeding frenzy in the housing market.... that are beginning to convince me that we still have a few years left of 3T.

Looking at past bubbles in real estate I note: 1816-1818, 1834-36, 1852-54, 1867-72, 1887-90, 1922-25, 1967-69, 1975-80.

Using S&H dating between 1816 and 1980 we have 22 years of Crisis, 45 years of High, 60 years of Awakenings and 37 years of Unraveling. If bubbles occur randomly (null hypothesis), we would expect 1.1 to occur in a Crisis, 2.2 in Highs, 2.9 in Awakenings and 1.8 in Unravelings.

Observed are 0 in Crises, 2 in Highs, 4 in Awakenings and 2 in Unravelings.

A chi-squared analysis gives p < 0.669, that is, there is a 67% probability that the difference between the expected and observed frequencies were the result of random luck (statistical significance is usually considered as p < 0.05). So it would seem that real estate bubbles are not correlated with turnings and that the current one indicates nothing about whether or not a 4T has begun.

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Rather, it's the ongoing (escalating?) feeding frenzy in the housing market.... that are beginning to convince me that we still have a few years left of 3T.

Looking at past bubbles in real estate I note: 1816-1818, 1834-36, 1852-54, 1867-72, 1887-90, 1922-25, 1967-69, 1975-80.

Using S&H dating between 1816 and 1980 we have 22 years of Crisis, 45 years of High, 60 years of Awakenings and 37 years of Unraveling. If bubbles occur randomly (null hypothesis), we would expect 1.1 to occur in a Crisis, 2.2 in Highs, 2.9 in Awakenings and 1.8 in Unravelings.

Observed are 0 in Crises, 2 in Highs, 4 in Awakenings and 2 in Unravelings.

A chi-squared analysis gives p < 0.669, that is, there is a 67% probability that the difference between the expected and observed frequencies were the result of random luck (statistical significance is usually considered as p < 0.05). So it would seem that real estate bubbles are not correlated with turnings and that the current one indicates nothing about whether or not a 4T has begun.

But what of the severity of the bubbles? Do they get more severe in 3T's?Also, what happens if you calculate for bubbles generally, not just in real estate?

Originally Posted by Arkarch

I'll still maintain that 9/11 was not a shared experience. While the chaotic, under-attack feeling certainly would have transfixed the east coast, I'd dare say most west-coasters found out about the attack after the fact. We just dont get going until 9 am Pacific.

That's not to say the west coasters feel less. Its just that I dont think many of us lived it.

But I could be wrong. Does the mood cover the entire US or is there a coastal bias?

Arkarch, 9-11 most certainly was a shared national experience, and I can't imagine how you could think otherwise.

While we did not experience it as direct attack as in New York or DC, we considered it an attack on our nation. Everything was disrupted for the better part of the week. Can you not recall air-travel being suspended for several days, and all the stranded travellers teaming up in rental cars to return home over the road? There were all kinds of changes put in place in response to 9-11 that still continue today.

I don't rule out 9-11 as a catalyst for this upcoming crisis. I think its entirely possible that 9-11 set in motion a chain of events that are part of the crisis. One fact is that it caused a change of huge magnitude in our foreign policy that is probably irreversible. And each passing week is bringing more evidence of our society re-asssesing its policies. Time will tell.

This seems like as a good a topic as any to share my recent personal experience. I've actually only just ventured far from home in the post-9/11 security environment. I took a week-long vacation down in the space coast region of Florida, visiting an old friend who lives in South Daytona.

When we went to the Kennedy Space Center, we thought we had arrived early in the morning, but there was still a long line to get in. They actually had a guard wandering through the crowd, brandishing what we were pretty sure was an Mp5. That's a 9mm submachine gun in a crowd of tourists, and the guy was without backup! We thought that was a recipe for disaster. I guess that's what's called Homeland Security on a shoestring budget. What are they doing with our $57 dollar ticket fee?

Still, that's the closest I've ever gotten to an Mp5 (never been to Israel.)

I hadn't flown since August 2001, so not sure what to expect I removed everything metallic from my baggage. Reluctantly, I left behind the pen knife I take with me everywhere I go. I replaced my mag-lite with a plastic flashlight/FM radio (actually a pretty good choice.)

At airport security on the way out a family (Gen-X parents, three young children) was so cooperative they were practically stripsearching themselves. They were stuffing every possession they had into the baskets, including every outer layer of clothing, and their shoes. The kids were excited and seemed to think of it as a game.

I resolved to do exactly what I was told by security personnel. I placed my two bags on the conveyor belts, placed wallet and cell phone in a basket, and waited for a sign. I was waved through the metal detector, still clad in jacket and shoes.

Still, with the complacency the kids show you can see how a new Artist generation is being nurtured. To them, excessive security measures are just going to be an ordinary way of life.

Oh, and on the plane, the lady sitting in front of me was clipping her finger nails with a metallic nailclipper, as if in defiance. Hey, I thought that wasn't allowed!

As far as the Bush administration goes, without 9/11 there's no telling how the political climate of this country would be now. It is deffinately reasonable to say that 9/11 caused a shift in politics even with little change in the white house. Just look at how many white house positions have changed hands since Bush was re-elected. Perhaps Bush's second term is a bridge between the 3T and 4T. Kind of like how thunderstorms stretch from summer into late fall.

I also think the media dominance of the news plays a large part in why everything seems to look the same. There isn't as much diversity in opinion as there has been in the past. Sure there are thousands more news outlets, but they pretty much all say the same thing because they are owned by one of 7 companies. The internet is full of diversity, but it doesn't reach a large enough audience to make a significant dent. You could say that the media changes with the public, but what happens when the media becomes so dominant that it doesn't need the public as much as the public needs it for information?

bump thread

I found a little gem, posted by our highly esteemed Professor in this thread two days following the 9/11 attacks...

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Thus, I do think this is the beginning of the crisis, but, AS IN THE LAST ONE, I do not expect any quick resolution. I do expect civic virtue to begin re-emerging. Suddenly who has sex with whom in DC doesn't seem so important. The Bush tax cut, I would bet, will be drastically curtailed--it HAS to be. Faith-based initiatives wil no longer be so important.

If trying to "end regimes" doesn't work, we'll have to reassess, and we'll need new, probably Boomer, leadership. Remember, Hoover tried to cure the depression too; it was supposed to be right up his ally; economic miracles were his specialty. And FDR was regarded as a frivolous second-rater.

It's true that in other turnings our first few Prophet presidents were nothing to write home about (although Polk, actually, was a very important one.) Daschle is my new candidate for Gray Champion. But that's VERY speculative. . . David

I recall Daschle on the night of the 2002 mid-terms moaning "This is the worst night of my life." The future "Gray Champion" was nuked two years later and hasn't been heard from since.

Yep, we remember Hoover all right. The Democrats were all over that historic parallel. And Bush, like FDR, is still considered both a "second-rater" and a diabolical genius.

Can Strauss and Howe help predict the future? Gee whiz, ask the Professor for crying out loud!