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Thread: Middle East - Page 8







Post#176 at 11-15-2003 03:19 PM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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Re: Biggest Generation, Worldwide

Quote Originally Posted by The Wonk
Ugh! A huge hero generation walking in lock step with their Gray Champion Osama Bin Laden! :o
Meanwhile a Hero generation of Jews waits for the return of Benjamin Netanyahu. I don't know who's worse.
"My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didnīt replace it with nothing but lost faith."

Bruce Springsteen, 1987
http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY







Post#177 at 11-15-2003 08:00 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Re: Biggest Generation, Worldwide

Quote Originally Posted by Earl and Mooch
Quote Originally Posted by The Wonk
Ugh! A huge hero generation walking in lock step with their Gray Champion Osama Bin Laden! :o
Meanwhile a Hero generation of Jews waits for the return of Benjamin Netanyahu. I don't know who's worse.
The Arabs, hands down. Several reasons:

  • There are lots more Arabs than Israelis.
  • Israelis are raised in a Democratic tradition, rather than a tradition extolling a past glorious period.
  • Finally, most important. Israelis, like Americans, Europeans, and Japanese, have low birthrates (with the exception of the fanatical ultra-Orthodox, who are a small minority. This is very different from the Arab populations. Thus, the Israeli population distribution is much less skewed towards the young than the Arab population distribution.







Post#178 at 11-15-2003 09:09 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Re: Biggest Generation, Worldwide

Quote Originally Posted by Jenny Genser
The Arabs, hands down. Several reasons:
  • There are lots more Arabs than Israelis...
Quote Originally Posted by Marc S. Lamb
Quote Originally Posted by Kiff '61
Quote Originally Posted by Marc S. Lamb
"By implication, then, this core which lives within party politics is without ideology or issues other than those which, espoused, can lead them to power in the next cycle? These individuals are without conviction? And people know this? and give them power anyway?!?"

The Democratic Party doesn't have people like this.

Well, they have one: Jenny Genser, aka The Wonk.
What in the world can you possibly mean by that remark? Jenny is one of the most honest and straightforward posters on this site. She's no political hack by any means.

That was uncalled for. :evil:
Ms. Genser has her own agenda. I'll let her speak for herself on this matter:

"Congressman Moran's policies towards Israel, in my opinion, stink. On the other hand, his stands on Federal employee issues, compared to his GOP counterpart representing neighboring Fairfax County, Tom Davis, are much better (from my perspective). That could potentially hurt my pocketbook. Frankly, I've been holding my nose and voting for Moran because his stands on Federal issues (and other issues, too) is more important to me than his stand on Israel." -- Jenny Genser (Posted: 03 May 2003 Subject: How will liberals reinvent themselves?)
Who the heck cares about how many who has when your job is on the line? Ms. Genser has her job, the Israelis have theirs. Ms. Genser has her Congressman Moran, a pro-terrorist, the Israelis have theirs.

Who wins depends soley upon who's job is on the line, not who is right or wrong. :wink:







Post#179 at 11-15-2003 09:20 PM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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Re: Biggest Generation, Worldwide

Quote Originally Posted by Jenny Genser
  • There are lots more Arabs than Israelis.
  • But some Israelis are Arab. Of course, Netanyahu and Co. don't think they count - he considered Yitzhak Rabin's coalition illegitimate because it didn't have a majority of Jewish members of Knesset.

  • Israelis are raised in a Democratic tradition, rather than a tradition extolling a past glorious period.
Kings David and Solomon isn't a past glorious period? See above for what Netanyahu thinks of democracy. This administration has given Israel and Russia carte blanche to snuff out Islam in their borders on the grounds that they're "terrorists" while those in charge are "democracies." Sure, and South Africa under apartheid was a democracy if you were an Afrikaner.
  • Finally, most important. Israelis, like Americans, Europeans, and Japanese, have low birthrates (with the exception of the fanatical ultra-Orthodox, who are a small minority. This is very different from the Arab populations. Thus, the Israeli population distribution is much less skewed towards the young than the Arab population distribution.
  • That doesn't give them the right to first dibs on everything (like water.)

    How many other Jonathan Pollards are in the federal bureaucracy, undermining our democracy?
    "My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didnīt replace it with nothing but lost faith."

    Bruce Springsteen, 1987
    http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY







    Post#180 at 11-20-2003 12:15 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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    Turkey

    After 9/11, I worrried about Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and/or Pakistan overthrowing their governments and installing an Islamist regime. Now, I've added Turkey to my list. As a member of NATO, a secular democracy, an ally of the US, iand a country which tried during the Nineties to join the European Union, t's conversion to an Islamist regime would be quite a blow to US interests.

    Anyone see this as a possibility? El Qaeda certainly seems to be very active there, as of late.

    On a personal note, my ex and I spent four days in Istanbul in 1992 and had a glorious time. I'd hate to see this fascinating country become closed to Americans and Westerners.







    Post#181 at 11-20-2003 04:24 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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    Re: Turkey

    Quote Originally Posted by Jenny Genser
    After 9/11, I worrried about Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and/or Pakistan overthrowing their governments and installing an Islamist regime. Now, I've added Turkey to my list. As a member of NATO, a secular democracy, an ally of the US, iand a country which tried during the Nineties to join the European Union, t's conversion to an Islamist regime would be quite a blow to US interests.

    Anyone see this as a possibility? El Qaeda certainly seems to be very active there, as of late.

    On a personal note, my ex and I spent four days in Istanbul in 1992 and had a glorious time. I'd hate to see this fascinating country become closed to Americans and Westerners.
    And their yogurt drinks...







    Post#182 at 11-20-2003 05:39 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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    Re: Turkey

    Quote Originally Posted by mmailliw 8419
    Quote Originally Posted by Jenny Genser
    After 9/11, I worrried about Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and/or Pakistan overthrowing their governments and installing an Islamist regime. Now, I've added Turkey to my list. As a member of NATO, a secular democracy, an ally of the US, iand a country which tried during the Nineties to join the European Union, t's conversion to an Islamist regime would be quite a blow to US interests.

    Anyone see this as a possibility? El Qaeda certainly seems to be very active there, as of late.

    On a personal note, my ex and I spent four days in Istanbul in 1992 and had a glorious time. I'd hate to see this fascinating country become closed to Americans and Westerners.
    And their yogurt drinks...
    Oh my, you bring back memories. You don't drink their yogurt, you eat it. It makes Dannon seem like plastic.







    Post#183 at 12-06-2003 09:43 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
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    Turnings in the Middle East

    I don't know how systematic this forum has gotten. I have a few comments and a few questions.

    1. It's a mistake, I think, to count on Israeli democratic traditions at this point. Likud has a large ultra-religious following who would be only too happy to replay the book of Joshua and cleanse the entire West Bank of Palestinians. A current article in the New York Review of Books makes a very strong case that Sharon does not have the slightest interest in peace, and that his policies are making any peace completely impossible. I agree.

    2. Where is Iraq in the cycle? It was formed around 1920, but I'd like to know more Sunni history before then. The Ba'th seizure of power in the 1960s certainly looked like a crisis. If so, they are now in an Unraveling--not the best time to conquer them and try to set up a peaceful transition.

    3. Has anybody tried to work systematically with Saudi cycles? We do have to wonder, it seems to me, whether polygamy and children by the dozen might have some impact on the workings of the theory.

    David K '47







    Post#184 at 12-06-2003 10:38 PM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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    Re: Turnings in the Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2
    I don't know how systematic this forum has gotten. I have a few comments and a few questions.

    1. It's a mistake, I think, to count on Israeli democratic traditions at this point. Likud has a large ultra-religious following who would be only too happy to replay the book of Joshua and cleanse the entire West Bank of Palestinians.
    And then they'll need a new buffer zone to keep that area secure. Then they'll populate it with settlements, etc. Remember that under Kings David and Solomon, Israel covered half of what's now Jordan, Syria and Lebanon - but not the Gaza Strip.

    A current article in the New York Review of Books makes a very strong case that Sharon does not have the slightest interest in peace, and that his policies are making any peace completely impossible. I agree.
    That, I think is generational as much as it is ideological.

    2. Where is Iraq in the cycle? It was formed around 1920, but I'd like to know more Sunni history before then. The Ba'th seizure of power in the 1960s certainly looked like a crisis. If so, they are now in an Unraveling--not the best time to conquer them and try to set up a peaceful transition.
    But was that 1T or 3T? I think, looking at a short period, it may be hard to tell the difference sometimes.

    3. Has anybody tried to work systematically with Saudi cycles? We do have to wonder, it seems to me, whether polygamy and children by the dozen might have some impact on the workings of the theory.
    To a certain extent, every country is different. Ours might be on more than one except for the common origins - the tea parties all happened in 1773, we all fought in WWII in the same circumstances.
    "My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didnīt replace it with nothing but lost faith."

    Bruce Springsteen, 1987
    http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY







    Post#185 at 12-09-2003 02:13 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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    A mode of protest even us non-political types can get behind. Mmmmmbeer.

    Stockpile a Six Pack of al-Chark

    Congress has decided to impose sanctions on Syria, thereby cooperating with the Bush administration's program for regime change in Damascus and the complete remaking of the Middle East. I think that's unreasonable, and just another step on a "road to Damascus" that doesn't lead to Jesus (see Acts 9:3-9) but to more hell ? la Iraq.

    If one were to propose a modest strategy to resist that effort, one might begin by exploring ways to buy Syrian beer. In doing so one might express solidarity with the Syrian people targeted for attack, while promoting international cultural exchange.

    Syrian beer? You ask incredulously. They're not supposed to have that sort of thing, being Muslims and all. But in fact the Syrians in ancient times pioneered in brewing. Today
    10% of the Syrian population is Christian, and there are even small Jewish communities in Damascus and Aleppo; these folks of course face no religious ban on alcohol. Muslims do, theoretically, face such a ban, but Syria (like Saddam's Iraq) is a secular state, and the government so vilified by the Bush administration could care less if good Muslims want to chug down a couple cold ones on a hot day while watching the World Cup or washing the car, or whatever.

    Now, I can't give specific information about how to order Syrian beer, because I'm a law-abiding citizen, and I know that while Syria retains diplomatic representation in Washington it's still considered a "terror-sponsoring" nation, and I'm aware that according to some extremely vague and stupid laws in this country, if I give "material support" to a "terrorist organization" (which is whatever the government wants that to be) I could be arrested just for advocating Syrian beer consumption. I mean, even though the bill hasn't gone into effect yet, they could say that the Syrian breweries I'm suggesting one might hypothetically patronize (see how carefully I'm choosing my words?) are connected to terrorism (just because they're Syrian), and so my suggestion itself would be advocacy of terrorism. I have a wife and kids, so I can't do more than what I'm doing here, which is to suggest you surf the net and pursue the theoretical possibility of procuring some Syrian brews to share with your friends; show your solidarity with the good, decent innocent people of the next neocon-targeted nation; and generate in your next back-yard barbecue some discussion of the complexity of the world the Manichaean Bushites want to split neatly in two. Just imagine:

    "Whatcha got there?" Your neighbor will ask curiously.

    "Oh, this? Pretty decent lager."

    "What's the writing on it?"

    "Arabic. It's a Syrian brew, actually."

    "No shit. They don't drink in those countries."

    "Sure 'nuf they do. They invented the stuff, y'know"

    "Not! Germans invented beer."

    "Wrong. Arabs were brewing it a thousand years before the first European chugged it down from a drinking horn..."

    Then, seizing the opportunity to politically educate your friend, you can go on to explain that the Baathist Party governing Syria (and Saddam's Iraq) is committed to secularism, which means not enforcing Islamic law, and maybe drive home the more important point that these secularists targeted by the religious fundamentalists now in power in the U.S. (who often lie, very deliberately, about the Middle East) actually have nothing to do with al-Qaeda and its program.

    If I were to advise you on how to acquire your Syrian beer (which again I won't do, lest I violate some anti-terrorism law), I'd suggest you first go to the website www.bottledbeer.co.uk and become familiar with the Syrian products available. Reviewer Silk Tork is harsh on Barada, which he judges a "foul, sewerage filled trickle," but some of your friends and neighbors might like that, everybody being different. Al-Chark on the other hand is (in Tork's estimation) "a wonderful beerastonishingly excellent," flavored with pineapple and grapefruit. Just 4.6% alcohol. It sounds to me rather like a Sam Adams Summer Ale, but I haven't tried it yet. I haven't found information on Dunia, a Syrian Pilsner, but I'm sure with some web-surfing you can get details.

    I can't find, on the net, an easy way to order cases of al-Chark. So if Syria weren't being targeted for the neocons; and if I didn't risk arrest for supporting terrorism in so doing, I'd suggest the following procedure. Fax the Syrian Embassy in Washington (there still is one) at 202-234-9548. Write something like:

    To whom it may concern:

    I am interested in acquiring information about how to legally procure the beer labeled "al-Chark" produced in your country, which I understand has a fine international reputation. I would like to buy at least one case, not only to expand my knowledge of world beers in doing so, but to also take a stand against the thoroughly unfair, bellicose policies that the government ruling my country is taking towards yours.

    I would greatly appreciate any help you could lend me in this cultural exchange activity.

    With all best wishes to the Syrian people,

    [name]

    I don't know if it will be possible to order directly from Syria. Maybe the embassy will point you to some European or Canadian distributors.







    Post#186 at 05-20-2004 08:31 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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    A Turning








    Post#187 at 06-01-2004 03:13 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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    Does anyone else here think Tom Friedman makes sense??

    **For Discussion Purposes Only**


    Tilting the Playing Field
    By THOMAS L. FRIEDMAN


    Published: May 30, 2004


    The American public has been treated to such a festival of mea, wea and hea culpas on Iraq lately it could be forgiven for feeling utterly lost. Americans are caught between a president who continues to wax utopian about Iraq and an analytical community that has become consumed by despair. This is no way to run a railroad. There are better ways to think about this problem. A good place to start is by thinking about Russia.

    I have a "Tilt Theory of History." The Tilt Theory states that countries and cultures do not change by sudden transformations. They change when, by wise diplomacy and leadership, you take a country, a culture or a region that has been tilted in the wrong direction and tilt it in the right direction, so that the process of gradual internal transformation can take place over a generation.

    I believe that history will judge George Bush 41, Mikhail Gorbachev, Brent Scowcroft, James Baker, Helmut Kohl, Margaret Thatcher and Fran?ois Mitterrand very kindly for the way they collectively took the Soviet Empire, which was tilted in the wrong direction for so long, and tilted it in the right direction, with barely a shot fired. That was one of the great achievements of the 20th century.

    Is Vladimir Putin's Russia today a Jeffersonian democracy? Of course not. But it is a huge nation that was tilted in the wrong direction and is now tilted in the right direction. My definition of a country tilted in the right direction is a country where there is enough free market, enough rule of law, enough free press, speech and exchange of ideas that the true agent of change in history ? which is something that takes nine months and 21 years to develop, i.e. a generation ? can grow up, plan its future and realize its potential.

    Democracy-building is always a work in progress ? two steps forward, one step back. No one should have expected a utopian transformation of Iraq. Iraq is like every other tribalized Arab state, where democracy is everyone's third choice. Their first choice is always: "My tribe wins and my rivals lose." Second choice is: "My tribe loses, so yours must lose too." Third choice is: "My tribe wins and so do my rivals."

    Our hope should be that Iraqis back into democracy, back into that third choice ? not as a result of reading our Bill of Rights but by reading their own situation and deciding that a pragmatic, power-sharing compromise among themselves is better than endless violence. Democracy will take root in Iraq through realism, not idealism. We did not and cannot liberate Iraqis. They have to liberate themselves. That is what the Japanese and Germans did. All we can hope to do is help them tilt their country in a positive direction so the next generation grows up in an environment where progressive forces and win-win politics are not stymied by a predatory state tilted against them.

    "I think this is a good time for sober realism, which means focusing on what is possible in Iraq, and what is the minimum we want from Iraq, not on what we would ideally like in Iraq," notes Michael Mandelbaum, the Johns Hopkins foreign policy expert, whose delightful new book, just out this week, entitled "The Meaning of Sports," contains many parallels between what makes for successful teams and successful countries. "The minimum we want is an Iraq that is reasonably stable, and doesn't harbor terrorists or threaten its neighbors."

    As one who believed ? and still does ? in the possibility and the importance of tilting the Arab-Muslim world from the wrong directions detailed in the U.N.'s Arab Human Development Reports to the right ones, I detest the politically driven failures of the Bush team in Iraq. In a panic, the Bush team, having lost its exaggerated realist rationale for the war ? W.M.D. ? has now gone to the other extreme and offered us an exaggerated idealist rationale ? that all Iraqis crave freedom and democracy and we can deliver this transformation shortly, if we just stick to it.

    We need to rebalance our policy. We still have a chance to do in Iraq the only thing that was always the only thing possible ? tilt it in a better direction ? so over a generation Iraqis can transform and liberate themselves, if they want. What might an Iraq tilted in the right direction look like? It would be more religious than Turkey, more secular than Iran, more federal than Syria, more democratic than Saudi Arabia and more stable than Afghanistan.
    Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
    THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
    See T4T, p. 253.







    Post#188 at 06-04-2004 02:15 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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    From that Islamo-fascist, theocratic, hell-hole, Iran:

    link

    Islamic Iran gets first female mayor

    TEHRAN, May 31 (AFP) - The Iranian city of Saveh has elected the first female mayor in the 25-year history of the Islamic republic, the official news agency IRNA reported Monday.

    The new mayor, Mehri Roustaie Gherailou, was a former member of the austere desert city's municipal council and has been described as being "experienced in public management."

    Saveh is 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Tehran and home to 125,000 people. Five years ago it distinguished itself by electing a majority of women to its muncipal council, a body that in turn appoints a mayor.

    In the 2003 municipal elections, three women were voted onto the seven-member body, while in February's parliamentary elections a woman also made it into the second round of polling there.

    In recent years, Iranian women have secured a stronger role in the Islamic republic, and are now outnumbering males at many universities. In the current parliament there are 12 women, as opposed to 13 in the previous assembly.

    _________

    Why, oh why can't they be free like we are? :?







    Post#189 at 06-04-2004 02:54 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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    Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77
    From that Islamo-fascist, theocratic, hell-hole, Iran:

    link

    Islamic Iran gets first female mayor

    TEHRAN, May 31 (AFP) - The Iranian city of Saveh has elected the first female mayor in the 25-year history of the Islamic republic, the official news agency IRNA reported Monday.

    The new mayor, Mehri Roustaie Gherailou, was a former member of the austere desert city's municipal council and has been described as being "experienced in public management."

    Saveh is 100 kilometers (62 miles) southwest of Tehran and home to 125,000 people. Five years ago it distinguished itself by electing a majority of women to its muncipal council, a body that in turn appoints a mayor.

    In the 2003 municipal elections, three women were voted onto the seven-member body, while in February's parliamentary elections a woman also made it into the second round of polling there.

    In recent years, Iranian women have secured a stronger role in the Islamic republic, and are now outnumbering males at many universities. In the current parliament there are 12 women, as opposed to 13 in the previous assembly.
    Saveh = Alamogordo next year. :lol:
    Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
    THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
    See T4T, p. 253.







    Post#190 at 07-13-2004 03:13 PM by mojo [at joined Jan 2004 #posts 5]
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    Re: Turnings in the Middle East

    Quote Originally Posted by John Taber
    Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2
    I don't know how systematic this forum has gotten. I have a few comments and a few questions.

    1. It's a mistake, I think, to count on Israeli democratic traditions at this point. Likud has a large ultra-religious following who would be only too happy to replay the book of Joshua and cleanse the entire West Bank of Palestinians.
    And then they'll need a new buffer zone to keep that area secure. Then they'll populate it with settlements, etc. Remember that under Kings David and Solomon, Israel covered half of what's now Jordan, Syria and Lebanon - but not the Gaza Strip.
    You make it sound as if the ultra-religious are blood lusting hawks and that they have some weight. Remeber Kahana's party is the only party that is banned from politics. Meanwhile Arab MK's visit Syria and Hezbollah without censure.

    Actions speak louder than words - remember Israel is still a democracy (sometimes too much - elections every 2-3 years).

    The Palestinian Authority has had only 1 election despite itscharter calling for one back in 1999. If Netanyahu is a Fascist, then Arafat is...?

    Further, you guys write as if it is Sharon who refused any peace deal. Might I remind you, that he wasn't there at Camp David with Clinton.

    BTW - Sharon's party the Likud gave Egypt the Sinai. But I guess that's reliving past glories too.







    Post#191 at 11-13-2004 02:43 PM by Jeremiah175 [at North Tonawanda, Ny joined Dec 2002 #posts 323]
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    Turkey warns of plan to invade Iraq

    Turkey warns of plan to invade Iraq

    http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=41411


    Turkey's military has begun preparing for what officials warned could result in a major invasion of neighboring Iraq, reports Geostrategy-Direct, the global intelligence news service.

    Officials said the Turkish General Staff has drafted plans for an invasion by at least 20,000 troops into northern Iraq in early 2005. They said the General Staff has urged approval from the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and discussed the proposed invasion with the United States.

    "The current phase is to show the United States that we're serious," a Turkish government source said. "After the Iraqi elections in January, the Turkish military will be ready to move."

    The military has called for a massive operation in northern Iraq to prevent Kurdish militias from controlling the area. The General Staff has been particularly alarmed by the reported Kurdish effort to drive out ethnic Turks from Kirkuk, the oil capital of northern Iraq and long claimed by Ankara.


    Under the Turkish plan, the military would deploy at least 20,000 Turkish troops in an enclave south of the Iraqi-Turkish border. The force would focus on eliminating the Kurdish Workers Party and ensure the return of Turkmens to Kirkuk.

    About 3,000 PKK fighters are said to be based in northern Iraq and have been sending insurgents and weaponry for attacks inside neighboring Turkey.

    The United States has refused numerous Turkish appeals to eliminate the PKK strongholds.

    On Oct. 14 Erdogan and his cabinet reviewed the General Staff's plan. That meeting, attended by Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok and Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul, discussed the rapid deployment of up to 40,000 troops in northern Iraq.

    A scaled-down version of the military plan was discussed in the national security council on Oct. 27. The officials said that over the last week some units have already been deployed along the Iraqi-Turkish border.

    Officials said the General Staff has sought to prepare two army divisions to cross the Iraqi border within 18 hours of any approval of the operation.

    The first goal of the ground operation, supported by fighter-jets and attack helicopters, would be to destroy PKK strongholds in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq.

    The General Staff has warned the cabinet that Ankara could no longer ignore the Kurdish threat. Officials said the military has determined that Kurds from Iran and Syria have bolstered support for the PKK.

    Iranian and Syrian Kurds, they said, have participated in PKK attacks against police and military targets in southeastern Turkey over the last week.

    Officials said the General Staff has sought to obtain U.S. approval for the operation in northern Iraq. But Washington has not provided implicit approval.

    The Erdogan government has sought to delay any Turkish military operation until after the European Union summit on Dec. 17. The government intends to spare the EU any pretext to delay a date for accession.

    Officials said the Peshmerga are digging tunnels and establishing outposts outside Dahouk, near the Turkish border.
    Born 8.22.78







    Post#192 at 11-18-2004 12:53 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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    Re: Turkey warns of plan to invade Iraq

    Quote Originally Posted by Jeremiah175
    Turkey warns of plan to invade Iraq

    http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=41411


    Turkey's military has begun preparing for what officials warned could result in a major invasion of neighboring Iraq, reports Geostrategy-Direct, the global intelligence news service.

    Officials said the Turkish General Staff has drafted plans for an invasion by at least 20,000 troops into northern Iraq in early 2005. They said the General Staff has urged approval from the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan and discussed the proposed invasion with the United States.

    "The current phase is to show the United States that we're serious," a Turkish government source said. "After the Iraqi elections in January, the Turkish military will be ready to move."

    The military has called for a massive operation in northern Iraq to prevent Kurdish militias from controlling the area. The General Staff has been particularly alarmed by the reported Kurdish effort to drive out ethnic Turks from Kirkuk, the oil capital of northern Iraq and long claimed by Ankara.


    Under the Turkish plan, the military would deploy at least 20,000 Turkish troops in an enclave south of the Iraqi-Turkish border. The force would focus on eliminating the Kurdish Workers Party and ensure the return of Turkmens to Kirkuk.

    About 3,000 PKK fighters are said to be based in northern Iraq and have been sending insurgents and weaponry for attacks inside neighboring Turkey.

    The United States has refused numerous Turkish appeals to eliminate the PKK strongholds.

    On Oct. 14 Erdogan and his cabinet reviewed the General Staff's plan. That meeting, attended by Chief of Staff Gen. Hilmi Ozkok and Defense Minister Vecdi Gonul, discussed the rapid deployment of up to 40,000 troops in northern Iraq.

    A scaled-down version of the military plan was discussed in the national security council on Oct. 27. The officials said that over the last week some units have already been deployed along the Iraqi-Turkish border.

    Officials said the General Staff has sought to prepare two army divisions to cross the Iraqi border within 18 hours of any approval of the operation.

    The first goal of the ground operation, supported by fighter-jets and attack helicopters, would be to destroy PKK strongholds in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq.

    The General Staff has warned the cabinet that Ankara could no longer ignore the Kurdish threat. Officials said the military has determined that Kurds from Iran and Syria have bolstered support for the PKK.

    Iranian and Syrian Kurds, they said, have participated in PKK attacks against police and military targets in southeastern Turkey over the last week.

    Officials said the General Staff has sought to obtain U.S. approval for the operation in northern Iraq. But Washington has not provided implicit approval.

    The Erdogan government has sought to delay any Turkish military operation until after the European Union summit on Dec. 17. The government intends to spare the EU any pretext to delay a date for accession.

    Officials said the Peshmerga are digging tunnels and establishing outposts outside Dahouk, near the Turkish border.
    This doesn't bode well. This could be destabilizing on a number of fronts.

    1. It could cause a serious US-Turkish rift if Bush opposes it, and could possibly mean intra-NATO war.

    2. It would probably encourage the Sunni Central Iraq to uncouple from the Shi'ite South, which the latter may try to stop, meaning civil war.

    3. Iran may get involved in some way, either participating in the Kurdish pacification and/or involve itself directly in South Iraq.

    4. Relations between the EU and Turkey could be greatly affected.

    And God knows what else.

    Would Bush give in to the Turks on this and pacify the Kurds for them?

    Interesting.
    Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
    THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
    See T4T, p. 253.







    Post#193 at 11-27-2004 07:00 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
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    11-27-2004, 07:00 PM #193
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    Turkey, Israel, Palestine

    The Turks have a history of moving against even NATO allies--see Cyprus 1974--they are still there 30 years later. This would be catastrophic for Bush. The Kurds are his only reliable allies in Iraq.

    The Israeli government, as Sharon's confidante Dov Weisglass admitted a couple of months ago, now feels no obligation whatever to even talk to the Palestinians, and, I would add, feels carte blanche to keep expanding in the West bank.

    Incidentally--off topic--am I the only one who feels ashamed as the Bush administration protests electoral fraud in the Ukraine--and as the Ukrainian supreme court, unlike our own four years ago, tries to ensure a fair election?
    David K '47







    Post#194 at 11-28-2004 01:59 AM by Barbara [at 1931 Silent from Pleasantville joined Aug 2001 #posts 2,352]
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    11-28-2004, 01:59 AM #194
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    Re: Turkey, Israel, Palestine

    Quote Originally Posted by KaiserD2
    The Turks have a history of moving against even NATO allies--see Cyprus 1974--they are still there 30 years later. This would be catastrophic for Bush. The Kurds are his only reliable allies in Iraq.

    The Israeli government, as Sharon's confidante Dov Weisglass admitted a couple of months ago, now feels no obligation whatever to even talk to the Palestinians, and, I would add, feels carte blanche to keep expanding in the West bank.

    Incidentally--off topic--am I the only one who feels ashamed as the Bush administration protests electoral fraud in the Ukraine--and as the Ukrainian supreme court, unlike our own four years ago, tries to ensure a fair election?
    David K '47

    I noticed it. Oh, the irony! eh? Audacious came to mind, right off.
    "Congress is not an ATM" - Senator Robert Byrd / "Democracy works.....against us" - Jon Stewart / "I'll reach out to everyone who shares our goals" - George W. Bush







    Post#195 at 02-23-2005 05:13 PM by NickSmoliga [at joined Jan 2002 #posts 391]
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    02-23-2005, 05:13 PM #195
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    Lebanon & Syria

    http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110006331

    Best of the Web Today - February 23, 2005 | By JAMES TARANTO

    The Arab Berlin Wall?--II

    We're tempted to make fun of Washington Post columnist David Ignatius for imitating our item yesterday with his column today titled "Beirut's Berlin Wall." In truth, Ignatius got the idea not from us but from a source, whose saying it is a lot more interesting than ours, Walid Jumblatt, patriarch of Lebanon's Druze community "and, until recently, a man who accommodated Syria's occupation":

    "It's strange for me to say it, but this process of change has started because of the American invasion of Iraq," explains Jumblatt. "I was cynical about Iraq. But when I saw the Iraqi people voting three weeks ago, 8 million of them, it was the start of a new Arab world." Jumblatt says this spark of democratic revolt is spreading. "The Syrian people, the Egyptian people, all say that something is changing. The Berlin Wall has fallen. We can see it."


    Meanwhile, author Patrick Seale, writing in London's left-wing Guardian, discounts the theory that Syria assassinated Lebanon's former prime minister Rafiq Hariri:

    If Syria killed Rafik Hariri, . . . it must be judged an act of political suicide. Syria is already under great international pressure from the US, France and Israel. To kill Hariri at this critical moment would be to destroy Syria's reputation once and for all and hand its enemies a weapon with which to deliver the blow that could finally destabilise the Damascus regime, and even possibly bring it down.

    So attributing responsibility for the murder to Syria is implausible.

    Seale lists a host of "potential candidates" to blame for the Hariri murder, including, "of course, Israel." But why is it implausible to think Syria would miscalculate and do something harmful to its own interests?







    Post#196 at 02-23-2005 06:38 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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    02-23-2005, 06:38 PM #196
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    Re: Lebanon & Syria

    Quote Originally Posted by NickSmoliga
    http://www.opinionjournal.com/best/?id=110006331

    Best of the Web Today - February 23, 2005 | By JAMES TARANTO

    The Arab Berlin Wall?--II

    ...

    Seale lists a host of "potential candidates" to blame for the Hariri murder, including, "of course, Israel." But why is it implausible to think Syria would miscalculate and do something harmful to its own interests?
    Is Ms. Condi Berkouk Syria's Foreign Minister? It could very well happened if this was so. :shock: :shock: :shock: :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:







    Post#197 at 03-13-2005 10:02 PM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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    03-13-2005, 10:02 PM #197
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    Israel's saeculum

    I would like to hear other people's opinions on the saeculum of Israel.

    I know quite a bit about the saeculum of rest of the Middle East. I figured out long ago that the last awakening started no later than 1979 and ended in the late 1990's. I would automatically assume Israel being a Middle Eastern nation with a large section of it's population either Arab or descended from Middle Eastern Jewish refguees would share the same saeculum as it's neighbours.

    However I get mixed signals (more research would be in order) since the first Jewish settlers to Palestine were from Europe and a lot of Israelis have Western connections (being born or spent their formative years in Europe and America).

    Never less I am convinced that the era of Zionist fight against the British colonials authorities and the following war of Independence was a Fourth Turning event, the Hero generation who fought for Israel's creation and survival must be a very awesome hero generation whose respect by other generations put to GI's to shame. Also Israel's mood in the early 2000's is defentily of a society in a unravelling, however I am not sure how far into the unravelling Israel currently is.

    http://www.fourthturning.com/netforu...cgi/14--5.68.2
    Old Toby's thoughts on the Israeli saeculum.







    Post#198 at 03-14-2005 10:55 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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    03-14-2005, 10:55 AM #198
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    February or October?

    Safar or Shawwal?

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Larry Diamond
    The question is, How do we do promote these changes in
    such a way that the search for an Arab
    Kerensky does not yield an Islamist Lenin instead?
    The tone and style of our approach are absolutely
    vital. Today in the Arab world, the United
    States is virtually radioactive; Arab democrats who come too close to it
    risk being contaminated and burned. The people of the Arab world profoundly suspect our motives.







    Post#199 at 03-14-2005 01:29 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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    03-14-2005, 01:29 PM #199
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    Re: Israel's saeculum

    Quote Originally Posted by Tristan
    I would like to hear other people's opinions on the saeculum of Israel.

    I know quite a bit about the saeculum of rest of the Middle East. I figured out long ago that the last awakening started no later than 1979 and ended in the late 1990's. I would automatically assume Israel being a Middle Eastern nation with a large section of it's population either Arab or descended from Middle Eastern Jewish refguees would share the same saeculum as it's neighbours.

    However I get mixed signals (more research would be in order) since the first Jewish settlers to Palestine were from Europe and a lot of Israelis have Western connections (being born or spent their formative years in Europe and America).

    Never less I am convinced that the era of Zionist fight against the British colonials authorities and the following war of Independence was a Fourth Turning event, the Hero generation who fought for Israel's creation and survival must be a very awesome hero generation whose respect by other generations put to GI's to shame. Also Israel's mood in the early 2000's is defentily of a society in a unravelling, however I am not sure how far into the unravelling Israel currently is.

    http://www.fourthturning.com/netforu...cgi/14--5.68.2
    Old Toby's thoughts on the Israeli saeculum.
    Israel probably arose from a 4T shortly after the '48 War. And I say this not just because of said war, the previous terrorist war during British occupation, and the 30's refugees, but also because, as you noted, the Ashkenazi population there started pouring in under T. Herzl's influence c. 1900. These were Europeans on a European saeculum.

    But I agree that it seems the Arab/Persian world seems to have had a 2T c. 1979-c. 1999. It then seems likely that the de-colonialization-cum-Nasserization period was a 4T for that region.

    To me the really interesting question becomes: What of the Palestinians? The arrival of large number of Jews and the '48 War must have had a 4Tish flavor for them. But did they follow the Israelis into a 1T after that, or did they remain 4T for another decade or more like their fellow Arabs?

    Could there be a saecular dissonance between Israelis and Palestinians to add the rest of the mismatch?
    Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
    THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
    See T4T, p. 253.







    Post#200 at 03-21-2005 07:17 AM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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    03-21-2005, 07:17 AM #200
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    Important Commentary

    Now some people are talking about an ?Arab Spring? of democratization spreading throughout the Middle East

    This article will get a brief overview what these people are thinking.
    http://www.smh.com.au/news/Miranda-D...086058494.html

    Currently the Middle East is in an unraveling that started in 2000 (give or take a couple of years either way).

    People have noted in Unraveling that people?s trust in governments erode to a point that in societies with regimes that either aren?t very stable or built on terror (which almost all in the Middle East are). Also I partly suspect the Elder Artist leadership more committed to compromises which can destroy regimes that run on sheer terror. In these societies revolutions can occur, the Russian revolution and the fall of Communism in Eastern Europe.

    On the other hand Unraveling are fruitful times for political reactionaries (Our own present era is a clear case in point). Daniel Pipes, who in my opinion is one of the knowledge Middle Eastern commentator?s sounds a strong caution. That the democratic reforms across the Middle East has lead to Islamist parties performing very well.

    Daniel Pipes article is here http://www.danielpipes.org/article/2447

    I suppose in conculsion I do believe that a democratic revolution can occur in the Middle East in the next few years, given the right conditions. However such a revolution could open up a can of worms. Any new democratic regimes in the Middle East could end up very much like the Weimar Republic once the 4T comes to the Middle East around 2020.
    -----------------------------------------