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Thread: Middle East - Page 15







Post#351 at 10-11-2006 11:32 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Thumbs up Give me the creeps

Rather than the manly John Wayne-ismo of the Last Crisis our Reform of Eurasia will be given over to people much like the Pansy Progressives in the UK, those Stalinist sodomites who stole, lied, and murdered for the Progress that Uncle Joe would bring to Eurasia in the fullness of time.


Also, we will use the model of the decadence of empire like the Ptolmaic Alexandrian eunuchs or the mannerist Italianate agents of the HRE. It's Reform and he's wearing that reddest of dress and those highest of heels.


From Cincinnatus to Heliogabulus; from Geo. Washington to those silken creatures of Progress slouching toward the Land Between the Rivers so that Reform might be born. It's all so clever. It's all so gay. NTTIAWWT







Post#352 at 10-12-2006 11:02 AM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari View Post
Rather than the manly John Wayne-ismo of the Last Crisis our Reform of Eurasia will be given over to people much like the Pansy Progressives in the UK, those Stalinist sodomites who stole, lied, and murdered for the Progress that Uncle Joe would bring to Eurasia in the fullness of time.


Also, we will use the model of the decadence of empire like the Ptolmaic Alexandrian eunuchs or the mannerist Italianate agents of the HRE. It's Reform and he's wearing that reddest of dress and those highest of heels.


From Cincinnatus to Heliogabulus; from Geo. Washington to those silken creatures of Progress slouching toward the Land Between the Rivers so that Reform might be born. It's all so clever. It's all so gay. NTTIAWWT
Any of the little idealism I had that remains is held in suspicion, if not contempt. I seek no reform or progression of others unless as an assessed viable tactic. But with clear eye, I see an enemy that can only survive by feeding on our "John Wayne-ismo" and will do whatever to provoke us to maintain that role scripted for us. One can believe that we can play the enemy's game and overwhelm him, but there's something about genocide that is bad for a nation's soul. Or, one can choose to disengage and prepare for the worst of the enemy's desperate provocations, but one would need to steel themselves against onslaughts much more soul-wrenching for a nation than even our 9/11 -

http://www.tribecafilmfestival.org/t...entNumber=2127
http://newyorkmetro.com/arts/tv/reviews/17059/

I, myself, choose the third way, pansy or sodomite nevertheless-

Hatpins of Persian and Arabic design.
Last edited by salsabob; 10-12-2006 at 02:21 PM.
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto







Post#353 at 10-12-2006 02:02 PM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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Baker - A silent acting like an Xer

Perhaps this realist perspective will catch on?

Baker's Panel Rules Out Iraq Victory

By ELI LAKE - Staff Reporter of the Sun
October 12, 2006



WASHINGTON — A commission formed to assess the Iraq war and recommend a new course has ruled out the prospect of victory for America, according to draft policy options shared with The New York Sun by commission officials.

Currently, the 10-member commission — headed by a secretary of state for President George H.W. Bush, James Baker — is considering two option papers, "Stability First" and "Redeploy and Contain," both of which rule out any prospect of making Iraq a stable democracy in the near term.

More telling, however, is the ruling out of two options last month. One advocated minor fixes to the current war plan but kept intact the long-term vision of democracy in Iraq with regular elections. The second proposed that coalition forces focus their attacks only on Al Qaeda and not the wider insurgency.

Instead, the commission is headed toward presenting President Bush with two clear policy choices that contradict his rhetoric of establishing democracy in Iraq. The more palatable of the two choices for the White House, "Stability First," argues that the military should focus on stabilizing Baghdad while the American Embassy should work toward political accommodation with insurgents. The goal of nurturing a democracy in Iraq is dropped.
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto







Post#354 at 10-12-2006 11:05 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by salsabob View Post
Perhaps this realist perspective will catch on?
It damned well better. Countries that live in delusion tend to have bad histories. Right now America under the Bush administration reminds me of a spolied trust fund kid who inherited a fortune on their 21st birthday and who has managed to spend almost all of it in a few short years on hookers, dope and bar hopping.

I doubt the next president will engage in 'crusades' to save the world. In fact, looking at the world realistically may be a sign that the 3t is ending or has ended. I doubt that it will be possible to elect another president as patently unqualified as Bush until about the 2070's or 80's when we are again in a late 3t and reality again seems expendable at the right price.







Post#355 at 10-13-2006 10:51 PM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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Tinkerbell syndrome

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
It damned well better. Countries that live in delusion tend to have bad histories. Right now America under the Bush administration reminds me of a spolied trust fund kid who inherited a fortune on their 21st birthday and who has managed to spend almost all of it in a few short years on hookers, dope and bar hopping.

I doubt the next president will engage in 'crusades' to save the world. In fact, looking at the world realistically may be a sign that the 3t is ending or has ended. I doubt that it will be possible to elect another president as patently unqualified as Bush until about the 2070's or 80's when we are again in a late 3t and reality again seems expendable at the right price.

I first saw this tinkerbell notion or label over at Dailykos where it was applied to this Administration. The notion that if we would just clap our hands really, really loud and really really believe, then whatever reality we desire will come true (e.g., stable democracy in Iraq). It's faith-based in it purest form.

I sense that its not only the Bush crowd and supporters who have this notion. I think it is at least shared by many on the other side who cannot grasp that we do have enemies that are going to attempt to do very nasty things to us, no matter our politics or philosophy. I'm wondering if tinkerbell thinking is not modus operandi for an entire generation, the baby boomers, regardless of political or religious belief. The boomers grew up with a media that constantly reinforced that all one had to do was clap real loud or click your heels together or wish upon a star or ....
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto







Post#356 at 10-14-2006 11:40 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by salsabob View Post
I'm wondering if tinkerbell thinking is not modus operandi for an entire generation, the baby boomers, regardless of political or religious belief. The boomers grew up with a media that constantly reinforced that all one had to do was clap real loud or click your heels together or wish upon a star or ....
...or believe in the grey champion. The old prophet will arrive at the historically preordained time, show us the way and save us.

I'm not just being sarcastic when I write this. Belief in a great visionary leader is the other side of the "Tinkerbell" coin. The old consensus that people had been so comfortable with that they took it for granted has to totally die before a new one can be built on its ashes. Getting to the regeneracy means going through the 4t, and that the b!tc& of the cycle. Part of me hopes that those who maintain the we are already 4t are correct, for that would likely mean that we are closer to that end than many, including me, currently believe. The very fact that we can still argue the point perhaps 5 or 6 years into the 4t could be a sign of a mild 4t. Hey, you've got to be optimistic where you can be.

BTW, a federal Iraq does seem to me like the only possible way out that doesn't involve perhaps of bloodshed. Now, if they can just agree on partitioning the oil revenue in a way that gives the sunni region a decent cut without the other two regions walking away from the table and continuing violence.







Post#357 at 10-15-2006 12:06 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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Thumbs up

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari View Post

Also, we will use the model of the decadence of empire like the Ptolmaic Alexandrian eunuchs or the mannerist Italianate agents of the HRE. It's Reform and he's wearing that reddest of dress and those highest of heels.


Just my $0.02

NTTIAWWT
If you ask me, I think our Secretary of State would look superb and very impressive in a red dress and high heels.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#358 at 10-15-2006 04:11 AM by Finch [at In the belly of the Beast joined Feb 2004 #posts 1,734]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
...or believe in the grey champion. The old prophet will arrive at the historically preordained time, show us the way and save us.

I'm not just being sarcastic when I write this. Belief in a great visionary leader is the other side of the "Tinkerbell" coin.
Any truly effective leader knows that he only leads by "getting in front of the parade"; i.e. going where the people already want to go. We make the Grey Champion.


Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
The very fact that we can still argue the point perhaps 5 or 6 years into the 4t could be a sign of a mild 4t. Hey, you've got to be optimistic where you can be.
Unless, of course, we're only 0-1 years into the 4T. Optimism, what optimism?

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
BTW, a federal Iraq does seem to me like the only possible way out that doesn't involve perhaps of bloodshed. Now, if they can just agree on partitioning the oil revenue in a way that gives the sunni region a decent cut without the other two regions walking away from the table and continuing violence.
Huh? Iraq is effectively partitioning itself right now, and that's escalating the violence, not reducing it. Besides, what exactly would you do with Baghdad? It's going to wind up like Jerusalem, where everybody claims it but nobody controls it.
Yes we did!







Post#359 at 10-15-2006 10:55 AM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Quote Originally Posted by Finch View Post
Any truly effective leader knows that he only leads by "getting in front of the parade"; i.e. going where the people already want to go. We make the Grey Champion.
There's a lot of truth to that. The key to being a sucessful grey champion as I see it is to give voice to the possible. For example, the new deal programs of the 1930's were politically impossible to implement in the 1920's. Most of the people who in early 1929 thought that they were just one 'killer' stock deal away from from eternal riches would never at that point have supported the programs that saved their 'bacon' a few years later.
Looking back now at the 1920's farm crises and the destitution of pre new deal seniors on starvation diets makes the food-nutrition and social security programs seem like no brainers. But it took leadership to get there. In 2050, assuming a sucessful 4t, it is likely that non carbon burning energy and prolabor international trade rules will seem like no brainers by then, but the way to get there will not be found until a voice that people will believe in is found.


Huh? Iraq is effectively partitioning itself right now, and that's escalating the violence, not reducing it. Besides, what exactly would you do with Baghdad? It's going to wind up like Jerusalem, where everybody claims it but nobody controls it.
The Iraq 'game' is getting late. As I've pointed out in a couple of other posts, to the strong disagreement of others, some form of a three part fragmenting of Iraq is pretty much unavoidable. It would be better if a stable non Iran dominated federal state could be created. But they've (everyone involved in the experiment) wasted three years trying to to make a unitary state that would be democratic where history shows a pattern of sunni dictatorship everytime that has been tried in the past. Starting work on a federal system in 2003 before the local militias got out of control would have been best.
There is a high probabality that it is too late and the fate of Baghdad may be symbolic of that. As I see it, making Baghdad the federal capital with each group having a stake locally is the only workable possibility. A tri-cultural city where the local government is split may work somewhat like an urban machine, each group gets a share of the goodies and the system ends up getting greased with 'speed money' (corruption), but machines usually work. And if, Baghdad, with its urbanism doesn't work on a multi ethnic level, then the more parocohal rural areas are even less likely to do so.
Last edited by herbal tee; 10-15-2006 at 10:59 AM.







Post#360 at 10-16-2006 09:31 AM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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Quote Originally Posted by Finch View Post
Huh? Iraq is effectively partitioning itself right now, and that's escalating the violence, not reducing it. Besides, what exactly would you do with Baghdad? It's going to wind up like Jerusalem, where everybody claims it but nobody controls it.
Escalating or de-escalating the violence needs to be viewed as a tactic, not necessarily as a goal. Our goal is to remove or mitigate significant threats against us. Primary objectives should be to contain, divide and eliminate our enemies. Maintaining and pursuing de-escalation of violence and furthering stability is key in the majority of situations in dealing with Islamists across the world, but there are exceptions to the rule that will include the emerging Sunnistan and Shiastan.

Baghdad’s destiny is the kiss-of-death status of an "international city" - much more like Beirut of the 1980s than Jerusalem of today.

Stability and resolution timeframes are in terms of decades not years. Like those that got use to the Cold War over 40 years, we too need to get use to the idea.
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto







Post#361 at 10-16-2006 03:25 PM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
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Quote Originally Posted by salsabob View Post

Baghdad’s destiny is the kiss-of-death status of an "international city" - much more like Beirut of the 1980s than Jerusalem of today.
Hell, yeah.







Post#362 at 10-16-2006 04:22 PM by Finch [at In the belly of the Beast joined Feb 2004 #posts 1,734]
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Quote Originally Posted by salsabob View Post
Escalating or de-escalating the violence needs to be viewed as a tactic, not necessarily as a goal. Our goal is to remove or mitigate significant threats against us. Primary objectives should be to contain, divide and eliminate our enemies. Maintaining and pursuing de-escalation of violence and furthering stability is key in the majority of situations in dealing with Islamists across the world, but there are exceptions to the rule that will include the emerging Sunnistan and Shiastan.

Baghdad’s destiny is the kiss-of-death status of an "international city" - much more like Beirut of the 1980s than Jerusalem of today.

Stability and resolution timeframes are in terms of decades not years. Like those that got use to the Cold War over 40 years, we too need to get use to the idea.
I agree, that's probably the best that can be hoped for. Just note that it's 180 degrees from the official spin:

1) It's inevitable that Iraq will be partitioned, because that's what the occupying powers want, and they've been getting what they want for the last several hundred years. The will of the Iraqi people doesn't even enter the equation.

2) The purpose of the partition is not to reduce violence and increase stability, but rather to provide us an excuse to get the hell out.

3) These two facts are a stark reminder that the "democratization project", even the rebuilding project, are officially dead and buried. All that's left is ass-covering.

4) Conclusion: partitioning Iraq is not "peace without victory", it is a tail-between-the-legs defeat.
Yes we did!







Post#363 at 10-16-2006 05:10 PM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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Quote Originally Posted by Finch View Post
I agree, that's probably the best that can be hoped for. Just note that it's 180 degrees from the official spin:

1) It's inevitable that Iraq will be partitioned, because that's what the occupying powers want, and they've been getting what they want for the last several hundred years. The will of the Iraqi people doesn't even enter the equation.

2) The purpose of the partition is not to reduce violence and increase stability, but rather to provide us an excuse to get the hell out.

3) These two facts are a stark reminder that the "democratization project", even the rebuilding project, are officially dead and buried. All that's left is ass-covering.

4) Conclusion: partitioning Iraq is not "peace without victory", it is a tail-between-the-legs defeat.
Your right in a number of ways, but the key thing to remember is AQ types need us in there as cover for setting up their Sharia Law 'utopia', taking on the Shia, and eventually the House of Saud. Our presence and missteps are vital to their credibility and survival in a region that is extremely dangerous even for them. We start to leave and they are going to do some very nasty things to provoke us into keeping our role as their huge recruiting machine; things that would be hard enough for a normal Administration to deal with let alone the current idiot leaders we have now.

Even though our current morons are screwing it up, we should not completely discard the tactic of 'fightin 'em over thar'; it needs to be a tool we use but in a much smarter and much much more judicious manner -- like planting an over-the-horizon strike force in the new Kurdistan.

But what we really need is covert and surrogate actions to distract, divide, contain and eliminate. And that includes getting Iran off it "free ride" and letting it get bloodied by AQ-sponsored 4GW (more likely 5th GW, i.e. 4GW crippling strategic infrastructure) that makes the Persians come to grips with how little relevance their nukes are going to be to their security.

Of course, for this to happen at the POTUS level, you need one cynical SOB that can talk love and peace out of one side of his mouth while ordering some pretty brutal operations out the other side. Bush's sophomoric baby-boomer faith-base black/white, right/wrong, for us/against us view of the world ain't gonna cut it. Nixon comes to mind, but if you lean the other way, a Ziggy Brzezinski. Which is where I think it will happen -- some smart influential but non-POTUS SOB, in country, is gonna cut some deals that on the surface will look like a lifesaver to this Administration -- and, they won't have a choice to but go along; and they won't have any power over the events that flow from that (i.e. dividing into self-governing ‘security zones’, redeployment with bulk of our military leaving and the majority of our remaining being a strike force in Kurdistan, our taking frequent overt strikes in Sunniland (while simultaneously supplying some of them through back doors); living civil war hell in Baghdad alla 1980s Beirut; taking convert actions in Shialand to foster the Arab/Persian split, etc…)

It’s early in a decades long process... And its not gonna get pretty.
Last edited by salsabob; 10-16-2006 at 05:31 PM.
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto







Post#364 at 10-16-2006 06:47 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Thumbs up Divide and Conquer, The NE Asia Solution

It may come to pass that we will have need for further distraction of our adversaries in northeast Eurasia.

The hirsute Ainu could be slyly set upon their fellow Nipponese (and the reverse). How many Toyotas would be bound to our shores after our Cardinalate cleverly get this pot up to a simmer and then to a boil? The insertion of a few wispy hairs and then more and more beards upon the wide-eyed wonders of the Japanese comic industry would surely shake that Empire to the ground.

But, fuzzy-faced characters in manga would have to be introduced slowly and subtly until a greater dis-ease with the hairy population of the Land of the Rising Sun was needful for our foreign policy as we set them at each others Reformed and not-quite-so-Reformed throats.







Post#365 at 10-16-2006 10:58 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Mostly for laughs

We're gonna smoke 'em out. Not.







Post#366 at 10-17-2006 09:22 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Exclamation On Eurasian Designs

I recently bought a set of colored pencils (Fifty Count Crayolas "Preferred by Teachers") to shade in my drawings for a planned guest house of Eurasian style {A combination of Celestial Feng-shui and the Fenno-Romanesque}.

It seems that others have been more ambitious with their outlines and colors:





I do not think the flow of chi will be life-enhancing in Mr. Ralph Peters' design. But, he may be more interested in the coursing of petroleum, arms, blood, and romantic idealism.







Post#367 at 10-19-2006 01:49 PM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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A true reformer

Now I don't want to put you into anaphylactic shock, but thought it might be interesting for you to read a true reformer of our brethren around the globe -

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblog/

My example here is so big reforminst strategy (or is it verbose) that I have to give him to you in two doses -

The systematic alteration, or replacement of, an existing rule set is your strategic goal. You're not happy with things the way they are, so you make those around you unhappy enough that they too, are unhappy with the ways things are. Shock them hard enough, and you can trigger their own movement toward new rule sets that move the pile for you. Most of the time, what you trigger with an SP will look pretty negative in the short term, meaning objectively bad for all and subjectively bad for you--the instigator. In reality, though, my idea of the aggressive 5GW warrior is that he's uncommonly cool with that sort of ambiguity, a stance that can only be justified by the long-term perspective. In short, sometimes you'll take beatings in order to give better beatings later on. Nietszchean, I know, but to me, 5GW is more about shaping (and yes, manipulating isn't a bad word either) your own population's morale than it is disabling your enemy's population (whom you seek to reduce through the best sort of seduction).

So I don't disagree that the more you employ a 5GWish grand strategy to shrink the Gap by buying it off pre-emptively, the more 5GWish resistance you will engender (Weeks' great point). Entering the battlespace always activates the battlespace, and first responses are typically symmetrical (i.e., our enemy realizes we're trying to win his "date" from him, so he naturally does whatever it takes to keep her cowed and afraid and in his corner). To me, it's just about getting there first. The bribers will come into that space, selling all sorts of hope in a better future. Most will be liars, seeking power for themselves ultimately. We'll be the true revolutionaries, empowering the masses (and, of course, "enslaving" them to the market, according to our foes). But we should openly subvert our targets with the truth: in our path, they end up with more stuff and more freedom in how to use it; in our enemies' path, they end up with less stuff and less freedom in how to use it. Granted, not everyone wants empowerment, as plenty find it extremely disorienting. But better we go 5GWish on their asses than have our enemies beat down those who naturally thrive under such conditions, usually driving them away. When we lose those people in a society, we lose the society to enduring Gap status. Sure, we win the best & brightest from their populations in the meantime, but that's like the liberal Catholics going Episcopalian and the conservative Episcopalians going Catholic: the end result is that the Episcoplians only get more liberal and the Catholics only get more conservative. That's not the outcome we seek in the Gap, because that does not drain the swamp but merely deepens it.

There are many who would focus their attention primarily on those who exit the Gap individually and enter the Core, fearing their potential as fifth columnists (the Sageman obsession that reflects his spy-versus-spy paradigm), but to me, that's a defensiveness that keeps us trapped in a 4GW mindset here at home, when we should be all about acting offensively 5GWish inside the Gap (Steve DeAngelis' real point with Development-in-a-Box): altering the observed reality as rapidly as possible to liberate those who will thrive in that "chaos" and keeping as disoriented as possible the right-wing authoritarian types (and the personalities that naturally follow them, seeking submission) so that they spend all their time and attention trying to turn back the clock at home rather than speed up the clock here in the Core (pushing us down authoritarian pathways out of fear).

In truth, that's what really pissed me off most about the NIC's NIE: it basically ceded the away game to the opposition, feeding the mindset that we should play 4GWish at home and eschew the dangers of the 5GW offensive strategy inside the Gap (in effect, protect your own rule sets at home rather than have the ambition of altering those abroad).

To me, then, 9/11 was Osama's reach for 5GW-level strategy: yes, it scored on 4GW levels by striking fear deep in the heart of the homeland, but it's meta-goal was to trigger the U.S. engagement inside the Middle East (taking a beating to give a better beating and put the board in play that you could not otherwise manipulate). In short, Osama was counting on our tendency to play revolutionary power--he wanted that response.

I wanted to give Osama that response, and so I supported the invasion of Iraq. I was willing to accept the likely beating in order to give a better one down the road (the necessary changes within the U.S. military). That's not a cavalier decision. That's simply understanding that, under the current rule set, if you continue to play as before, you'll lose because your enemy's gone onto the next generation of warfare to turn your strengths into your weaknesses. Osama wins when he keeps America in this loop: we try classic 3GW, find it only gets us 4GW in response, and so we retreat, eschewing the 4GW battlespace and thus surrendering it to him.

In that path, we don't defend globalization, letting the enemy rally his troops around the friction naturally triggered by the global economy's spread, when what we should be doing is speeding globalization up as much as possible, accepting both the 4GW burden of countering resistance both within the Core and throughout the Gap and the meta-strategies implied by an offensive 5GW approach (releasing the "dogs of 4GW" war only bonds us further with fellow Core powers, by: 1) moving us collectively away from the temptations of classic 3GW scenarios (like Taiwan) and 2) replacing those temptations with new fears of collective exposure to 4GW dangers, thus pushing us toward aggressively building out the Core).
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto







Post#368 at 10-19-2006 01:54 PM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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True reformer - continued

Virgil if your still breathing, here's the continuation of our reformer -

I know this may all come off as slightly rambling and inchoate, but I'm in that reaching mode toward Vol. III more and more. To me, PNM was all about moving off 3GW and recognizing the realities of 4GW, while BFA suggested the institutional changes and strategic alliance choices necessary to move us beyond 4GW engagement (the Long War, as we call it now) and into what I would call 5GW shaping of the future battlespace (by locking down Asia and gaining its strategic aid in shrinking the Gap in all those places where our enemies are--to date--not yet strong, such as the entire Gap outside of the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan/Pakistan).

Along those lines, I am willing to take the beating in Afghanistan and Iraq in order to give the ultimate "beating" (as in, beating them to the punch) elsewhere throughout the Gap, but I need New Core pillars to make that effort with me, because I know that Old Core Japan and Europe simply aren't up to it. The quickest way to do that, in my mind, is to leap-frog toward strategic alliance with China (and yes, I won't even wait on the solution set on North Korea to emerge before pursuing that). The longer we wait on that, the better the chance that Osama and Co. can create enough doubts about our strengths to convince China that the safer path is hunkering down and building-out their own version of globalization there. Osama wants that because a three-bloc world (Old Core, China-centric New Core, Gap) keeps his strategic goals in play in the Middle East. I want China locked in ASAP because a two-bloc world (strong Core working to shrink the Gap versus a global jihadist movement fighting to keep Islam off-line) basically preordains the outcome.

So giving the jihadists their "cause celebre" in Iraq is just fine and dandy to me, as cynical as that may sound, because that tie-down of their resources and strategic attention gives globalization more time to work the rest of the Gap during this unprecedented global expansion triggered by the rising East and those three billion new capitalists. By tainting anti-globalization through association with the grotesquely frightening masks of the Zarqawis and bin Ladens, I push China toward the self-realization of strategic alliance with the United States in a number of ways: 1) letting their "infiltration" of the rest of the Gap go unchecked (Oh, how lax of me!) and 2) by moving them closer to the identification as the new "face" of globalization (the "Chinese model" as flytrap to the Egypts of the world, thus depressing the old reflexive reach for the notion that globalization = westernization = americanization so good anti-globalization = good anti-americanism).

The great danger, of course, is that by "staying the course" too long on Iraq and Afghanistan, we drive up anti-Americanism among our enemies and their targeted population pools that we reflexively pull away from the Long War (Americans want to be liked, even when waging war), but there again, that danger only speaks to the speed to which we need to lock in Asia's strategic affection.

Our failsafe in all of this? Bush and Co. must go by Jan '09, which is why it's so crucial that we get somebody in who can see the whole board here and not just the need for an exit strategy in southwest Asia. Historically speaking, I'm more than willing to accept the "loss" in the Middle East if that loss suitably triggers the new strategic relationships I need to win the rest of the planet, and to me, the quickest route to that desired end is locking in China to lock-down Asia and set up the combination of our Leviathan and their SysAdmin for closing down future potential pathways for the global jihadist movement to move out of its current center of gravity in southwest Asia into places we should jointly lock-down pre-emptively with China, India, Russia and Brazil--such as Central Asia, southeast Asia, sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.

Doing this right, in a 5GW sense, will make it seem as those our New Core pillars are "laughing all the way to the bank," to use Chris Lydon's phrase. This was the cracking-the-code moment for me in the New Map Game: we set the table (Leviathan) and China eats the meal (SysAdmin). We seem to "lose" and China seems to "win," first in East Asia on the East Asian NATO/North Korea solution set, and then in Latin America (where the Chinese-Brazilian "axis" dominates) and Africa (where the Chinese model gets most of the credit).

Throughout this years-in-the-waging 5GW strategy, America will "lose" much global power to China, allowing them to shrink muck of the Gap for us (along with fellow rising India and Brazil and to a lesser extent, demographically moribund Russia). Meanwhile, the Middle East/Islam (to most people) will remain unsolved and screwed up, our "addiction" to oil will go seemingly unaddressed, Europe will be lost to the invasive species known as Muslims, and the West will be in near collapse... (so you see, I do find types like Steyn wonderfully useful...).

Except great power war will be a distant memory, the global economy will have successfully migrated through its greatest expansion ever, the Gap will be effectively shrunk everywhere save the permanently f--ked-up Middle East (which we ceded to Iranian domination), China will be our permanent strategic ally, and life will be very good.

Of course, in that 5GW victory (that will suspiciously seem like a defeat throughout its making), we'll only be setting ourselves up for future domination by the Chinese, much like the Japanese currently subvert us with sushi, Pokemon, anime, etc. Blade Runner's sloppy mix of Asian-American global culture will have been achieved, radical Islam will have been hopelessly marginalized, and Europe will achieve the permament third-tier status it so richly deserves for setting up this huge task called shrinking the Gap, which China and America (two former European colonies) so kindly got together on and finally solved.

There you have it, my personal 5GW dream...

But again, the key dynamic here: the more we "lose" and are perceived to "lose" in the Middle East, the more we are forced to seek (hat in hand) strategic alliance with China (where Kim serves his only useful purpose in life). The more China sees itself as rescuing itself, globalization, and the world from American recklessness, the more self-confidence we build in an ally that will be perceived to eclipse us just as we were perceived to eclipse Great Britain across the 20th century while nonetheless basically doing its strategic bidding throughout the planet for decades on end (the lap dog's tail is wagging its "master"), saving them in two World Wars and a Cold War. Now, if we play our cards right, we suffer similiar such "indignities" at the hands of the Chinese throughout the Gap.

I know, I know. I'm selling America down the river in order to build a stable world order that keeps us fat, rich, and safe for the long haul, getting others to do the heavy lifting for the Gap's pursuit of happiness. It'll never happen because it's too devious and duplicitous to unfold, and all this talk of winning-while-appearing-to-lose simply won't wash. You simply can't manipulate people and countries like that.

All good points. And the more strongly people make them, the better.

Remember when our defeat in Vietnam forced us to make peace with the Sovs and Chinese in the early 1970s, setting up their rapid ideological expansion around the planet? Yeah, we got totally screwed on that one (I mean, look where we are now). What were those 5GW geniuses Nixon and Kissinger doing there?

Apparently giving the world away to the Commies. Worked like a charm, didn't it?
As you can see, I'm such a lightweight when it comes to reformers. ;-)
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto







Post#369 at 10-19-2006 02:15 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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10-19-2006, 02:15 PM #369
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Thumbs down Worse than Romantic Idealism

...is the Romantic Realist. Locking in the Celestials! This enough to make Mr. Red-White & Bluejeans, Victor Davis Hanson, seem a man of moderation.

I think the author a loon, a serious loon to be sure. Give me a Naval Tariff and the abandonment of Eurasia to its own devices any day over Apple Cores of Reform. I have posted elsewhere on the fevers of Mr. Thomas Barnett. Though he is much admired by many whigs here at T4T, I cannot join in any praise for the idea of the management of the Middle Kingdom by anyone other than the Celestials themselves. The Mandate of Heaven is theirs to resolve.

If you are tired of Glo-bal-oney spend some time with the Loco-Local.
Last edited by Virgil K. Saari; 10-20-2006 at 10:00 AM. Reason: Progressive palpitations, Clio-con-niptions







Post#370 at 10-23-2006 10:39 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Thumbs up Sauerkraut (Freedom Cabbage) Ja!, Kim-chee Nein!

THE PERIL YELLOW!

Quote Originally Posted by Herr Gabor Steingart in Der Spiegel
But despite the politeness and the smiles, Western governments must act quickly to combat the rise of China and Asia.
Politeness and smiles must not be allowed to board the container ships of Eastern Eurasia argues a Western Eurasian! A NATO Economic will wipe that smirk off the Celestials.







Post#371 at 10-23-2006 04:30 PM by Finch [at In the belly of the Beast joined Feb 2004 #posts 1,734]
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Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari View Post
From the above article:

The world war for wealth calls for a different, but every bit as contradictory, solution.
Their secret is stoic perseverance, the weapon they use to pursue their own interests while at the same time disregarding ours. What looks like a market economy in Asia, actually follows the rules of a type of society which former German chancellor Ludwig Erhard liked to call a "termite state." In a termite state, it is the collective rather than the individual which sets the agenda.
70 years after a Swede in makeup playing Charlie Chan, and we're still stuck with the myth of the Inscrutable Chinaman. Feh. Unfortunately, such dreck will become much more common as we fall headlong into Crisis.
Yes we did!







Post#372 at 11-06-2006 01:07 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Post#373 at 11-15-2006 02:44 AM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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Post#374 at 11-21-2006 10:32 AM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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Israeli Map Says West Bank Posts Sit on Arab Land

By STEVEN ERLANGER
Published: November 21, 2006
JERUSALEM, Nov. 20 — An Israeli advocacy group, using maps and figures leaked from inside the government, says that 39 percent of the land held by Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank is privately owned by Palestinians.

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/21/wo..._r=1&th&emc=th
"My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didn´t replace it with nothing but lost faith."

Bruce Springsteen, 1987
http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY







Post#375 at 11-21-2006 12:36 PM by salsabob [at Washington DC joined Jan 2005 #posts 746]
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This is bad

Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68 View Post
This is very bad, at several levels --

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061121/...inister_shot_6


BEIRUT, Lebanon - Prominent anti-Syrian Christian politician Pierre Gemayel was assassinated in a suburb of Beirut on Tuesday, his Phalange Party radio station and Lebanon's official news agency reported.

The slaying will certainly heighten political tensions in Lebanon, where the leading Muslim Shiite party Hezbollah has threatened to topple the government if it does not get a bigger say in Cabinet decision-making.

Gemayel was shot in his car in Jdeideh, a Christian neighborhood, his constituency on the northern edge of Beirut, witnesses said. A car rammed his vehicle from behind and then a gunman stepped out and shot him at point-blank range, they said.
Gemayel is the third prominent figure in Lebanon to be assassinated in the past two years. Former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Saad Hariri's father, was killed in a car bombing in February 2005, and lawmaker and newspaper manager Gibran Tueni was killed in a car bombing in December 2005.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20061121/..._minister_dc_6

Anti-Syrian Christian leader Samir Geagea said on Friday efforts to topple the government could lead to assassination attempts on cabinet ministers.

Lebanon's Prime Minister Fouad Siniora said on Tuesday his depleted cabinet was legitimate despite the resignation of six pro-Syrian ministers, and warned that any anti-government protests could turn violent.

With Gemayel's death, the resignation or death of two more ministers would bring down Siniora's government.

Pro-Syrian Hezbollah and its allies are preparing to take to the streets to topple Siniora's government, which they accuse of being allied with the United States, arguing that it has lost its legitimacy since Shi'ite Muslims are no longer represented.

The depleted cabinet last week approved draft U.N. statutes for a tribunal to try the killers of Hariri despite the resignations of the pro-Syrian ministers.
"Che l'uomo il suo destin fugge di raro [For rarely man escapes his destiny]" - Ludovico Ariosto
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