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Thread: Crazy Russia - Page 2







Post#26 at 06-04-2007 12:09 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tristan View Post
Ever since the overthrown of Communism Russia has been unraveling literally, apart from a new political system has been put into.
Haven't you seen the place for the last decade? The crashing of the crisis in the 80s-90s that blew its last blow in the Default is the past. Russia now is a country of relative stability, increasing prosperity, and the big questions all more or less settled (except for the ones stuck out on the margins -- which is also a 1T feature). Its amusing now to imagine forward and try to guess just what will be the cultural issues that will prove too much to take for the kids my boys are playing with these days.

Such is the woeful state of the institutional order in Russia as of late, they can't even defeat the mighty Chechens.
See what the war-cycle fallacy does? You conflate a lack of military victory in the Second Chechen War with some sort of social sign. But Korea was also fought to a stalemate, as are many other 1T wars. And guerilla wars in the modern day are rarely won to begin with. And more importantly, the Second Chechen war is neither associated in Russia with 3T-nihilism or with 4T-unity.. And again, Turnings are social.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#27 at 06-04-2007 07:22 AM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Haven't you seen the place for the last decade? The crashing of the crisis in the 80s-90s that blew its last blow in the Default is the past. Russia now is a country of relative stability, increasing prosperity, and the big questions all more or less settled (except for the ones stuck out on the margins -- which is also a 1T feature). Its amusing now to imagine forward and try to guess just what will be the cultural issues that will prove too much to take for the kids my boys are playing with these days.

I admit I am a little out of loop when it comes to Russia. However the other former communist bloc countries like Poland, Baltic Nations, Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia have become pretty stable and prosperous since the end of communism. However there is little reason to not see they aren't currently in an unraveling, since they are western countries which have shared the same saeculum with their neighbouring societies for centuries.
"The f****** place should be wiped off the face of the earth".

David Bowie on Los Angeles







Post#28 at 06-04-2007 10:34 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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The former captive nations -- that is the former Warsaw Pact countries -- are undergoing right now what is called 'convergence'. That means a huge inflow of money fro West to East, political convergence via the EU and NATO, and social convergence -- gay pride parades, for example.

These countries are also enjoying a period of prosperity. However, the root of that prosperity is different from the Russian root. The Estonian post-EU boom has largely been driven by investments in real estate, funded by Scandinavian banks, which own the banks here. Things are so intertwined with the Nordic countries here, that interest rates for Estonia are set in Stockholm by Swedish banks.

Meanwhile, other ex-captive countries like Hungary or Poland see money coming from countries like Germany and France and the US.

The key Russian industries -- oil and gas exporters, for example -- are essentially state owned and managed. Putin goes and negotiates energy deals when he's abroad in Austria or Luxembourg. They have an odd blend of doing business called state capitalism, which stands beside their "managed democracy". I have spoken with former ambassadors to the USSR who tell me that waiting to find out who Putin's successor will be reminds them of how things were in 1982 when they waited to find out who would replace Brezhnev.

What I am getting at, is that the problems of the West are Eastern Europe's problems too because their economies are more strongly linked with the West than with Russia's and their politics are more strongly linked with Brussels and Washington than with Moscow.

So they have inherited the structural dilemmas of organizations like the EU, while Russia has not. The Constitutional Treaty issue is debated as hotly in Warsaw as it is in Paris. The NATO mission in Afghanistan is as important for security in Riga as it is in Washington.

The only problem though for Russia is that, as Andrei Piontkovsky has written, if the West is a sinking ship, then Russia is part of that sinking ship. A calamitous 4T for the West -- failure in Afghanistan, for example -- will have nasty implications for Russia. Afghanistan is the underbelly of Russia isn't it? NATO is in a way doing the dirty work on Russia's borders all the while Russia complains about NATO. So as nice for internal politics as NATO bashing is, it might be more helpful for Russia in the longrun to recognize that the future of Europe and Russia are linked, like it or not.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#29 at 06-04-2007 12:40 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
The only problem though for Russia is that, as Andrei Piontkovsky has written, if the West is a sinking ship, then Russia is part of that sinking ship. A calamitous 4T for the West -- failure in Afghanistan, for example -- will have nasty implications for Russia. Afghanistan is the underbelly of Russia isn't it?
First off, given the fact that Russia both has the raw capital that the West needs, and is one of the few remaining unexploited outlets for what the West produces, it's hard to see why the dependence between the two would be in the direction you want to put it... For goodness' sake, all the major automotive manufacturers' Russian business is subsidizing their European and American business these days.. Who is it that needs who more, exactly?
And as to the second, russia knew better than to screw around in Afghanistan; personal experience will do that sometimes -- even for politicians.... Frankly, Russia is in pretty good shape no matter how the current Afghan adventures turn out (as if there was ever any real question about that). The caucasus aside, Russia even from Soviet times really hasn't ever had a 'muslim problem'. Hell, several of the CIS states are islamic. Though they butt up against Europe, Russians are really no more European than they are Chinese or Mongolian. It seems nothing but wishful thinking to call them part of the West. They're really their own thing...
NATO is in a way doing the dirty work on Russia's borders all the while Russia complains about NATO.
Well, considering that the 'work' NATO is doing on Russia's borders is either noncritical to Russia -- or in many cases overtly hostile to it, their opposition shouldn't be too surprising.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#30 at 06-04-2007 12:45 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Oh by the way, an addendum to my earlier comments on Russian TeeVee.

Our satellite carrier just switched off the dubbed Jetix-Europe feed and in its place started piping the Russian ТелеНяня. It strongly brings to mind the glory days of Nickelodeon -- I just watched a program very much along the lines of Mr. Wizard, and they're saying after what's on now (an animal show) will be a kids' game show (clips put one in the mind of Double Dare).
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#31 at 06-05-2007 01:16 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Hell, several of the CIS states are islamic.
I seem to recall hostage crises at a theater in Moscow and at a school in Beslan led by "Muslim extremists". But that was so long ago, <b>in 2004</b>.

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Well, considering that the 'work' NATO is doing on Russia's borders is either noncritical to Russia -- or in many cases overtly hostile to it, their opposition shouldn't be too surprising.
The problem with Russian policy is that it is centered around deal making, ie; "we'll 'let' you have your way in Kosovo, if you 'give' us a free hand in Georgia." Most of the experts I have heard say that this is often what it comes down to, and so it was at Yalta, where Churchill and Roosevelt made similar deals.

But US bilateral relations with some of these countries that Russia would like to reduce to chess pieces are *better* than US-Russian bilateral relations. They are even more essential. The atlanticists in Europe don't want to buy gas through the Russians, they want to get it from the source -- from Turkmenistan. Why pay 3X when you can get it at X + 10 percent?

There's also a lot of doubt as to whether the Russians actually have the gas. Then the questions of why spend billions more to lay a pipeline direct to Germany under the Baltic Sea, when you can just lay another one beside the one that exists and runs through Poland?

As for the 10 NATO missiles, that plan has existed for a decade and the Russians have known about it. What you are seeing now is a little pre-election sabre rattling. It distracts from other issues such as extraditing one KBG agent named Lugovoi to stand trial for murder in London.

What will happen there? Do the Russians have an extradition agreement with Britain or not? Or will they 'remove' their signature from that document or just ignore it all together? I have a feeling that a huge disinformation campaign is about to begin, in which we will see all logic twisted and upended by irrational accusations and Mad Hatters and "clean cup, move down, move down."

Then somewhere in the carnival and chaos the true Russian policy will appear, slipping by everyone on the way out the door. That's how it seems to work.

I don't cry for Litvinenko. But you just don't poison someone with Polonium and leave a trail across Europe and then get to hide behind the skirts of Russia's ill-temperament and nuclear arsenal.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#32 at 06-05-2007 10:30 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
I seem to recall hostage crises at a theater in Moscow and at a school in Beslan led by "Muslim extremists". But that was so long ago, <b>in 2004</b>.
Again, barring the Caucasus (where Russia has been having problems since the Tsars took it over centuries ago). Here there's no "clash of Civilizations" or whatever you want to call the muslim-immigrant-assimilation problem that is presenting itself in Europe. That is, Europe's problem is most certainly not Russia's problem on that count.

As for the 10 NATO missiles, that plan has existed for a decade and the Russians have known about it. What you are seeing now is a little pre-election sabre rattling.
Whose pre-election? The Russian election is still far enough out (and non-critical enough; everyone already knows who the next president will be) that it's doubtful to be on this side.
Really, the latest statements from Putin were pretty reasonable ones. The post-cold-war status quo in part included the bulk of Europe being left out of the US-Russia rivalry. If certain places in Europe once more become part of that rivalry, then they should understand what that entails. It's not just free money from Uncle Sam; that's all..


It distracts from other issues such as extraditing one KBG agent named Lugovoi to stand trial for murder in London.

What will happen there? Do the Russians have an extradition agreement with Britain or not?
I don't know. Britain seems not to think so; there are more than a handful criminals currently residing in Britain to the avoidance of being tried for their crimes in Russia. I was sor tof under the assumption, based on that, that there was no such treaty.

Was I wrong?
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#33 at 06-05-2007 05:03 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Whose pre-election? The Russian election is still far enough out (and non-critical enough; everyone already knows who the next president will be) that it's doubtful to be on this side.
You know something we don't?

I don't know. Britain seems not to think so; there are more than a handful criminals currently residing in Britain to the avoidance of being tried for their crimes in Russia. I was sor tof under the assumption, based on that, that there was no such treaty.

Was I wrong?
Oh well, if the dandy Lugovoi doesn't show up, I am sure he'll be tried in absentia too. I am waiting for spy eviction day -- genius idea of The Economist. It's the day when all the Russian spies are simultaneously evicted from their host countries. I am sure it's a few months off, but ... maybe it will happen
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#34 at 06-05-2007 08:12 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
You know something we don't?
There's someone, somewhere who doesn't already know?
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#35 at 06-06-2007 01:34 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
There's someone, somewhere who doesn't already know?
Bastard.

I don't mind either Ivanov or Medvedev because, in my opinion, Putin is actually quite crazy (see topic titled). I mean check out this quote from the other day:

“Let’s not talk about having immaculate, white fluffy partners on one side, and on the other a monster who has just come out of a forest with claws and horns,” said Putin.

I mean, I get the point. But was there really a need for the claws and horns? That's a little too creative. Maybe that beet soup from the night before was halluciongenic? I don't think Medbedev and Ivanov will indulge us wit fairies and monsters and dead donkey ears.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#36 at 06-06-2007 02:04 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Here's a little more cry, cry, cry from Russian diplomats:

Mr Fedotov compared Britain’s activity over the Litvinenko case with Poland’s continuing refusal to approve new EU negotiations with Moscow unless Russia removes an import ban on Polish meat and vegetables. He suggested both countries were “using European solidarity as a shield to move ahead their egoistic national interests”.

Wait, EU member states are using the organization to accomplish their individual goals with Russia?!?! Hey, that's not fair

See, I read this crap everyday. And people wonder why I am such an edgy person.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#37 at 06-06-2007 01:13 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
Bastard.

I don't mind either Ivanov or Medvedev because, in my opinion, Putin is actually quite crazy (see topic titled). I mean check out this quote from the other day:

“Let’s not talk about having immaculate, white fluffy partners on one side, and on the other a monster who has just come out of a forest with claws and horns,” said Putin.

I mean, I get the point. But was there really a need for the claws and horns? That's a little too creative. Maybe that beet soup from the night before was halluciongenic? I don't think Medbedev and Ivanov will indulge us wit fairies and monsters and dead donkey ears.
That's how Russians talk. Sort of like how Lithuanian is salted pretty heavily with farm-lingo by the way of the languages idiomatic constructions, Russian is such an economical language that to use metaphor without stacking on the descriptions just doesn't come out sounding right.
What you have is an unsympathetic translator choosing to make a direct word-for-word when the situation really justifies a more loose idiomatic approach to carry the meaning and the sense across. We saw this sort of thing with the 'Comrade Wolf' comment Putin made several months back (which was really just his repeating a time-worn Russian cliche about someone who doesn't care what other people think). The guy's no hero, but you've got to realize that you are getting a view pretty heavily engineered specifically to make you "bothered". If the elites decide, Medvedev will come across to you just the same.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#38 at 06-06-2007 03:52 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
The guy's no hero, but you've got to realize that you are getting a view pretty heavily engineered specifically to make you "bothered". If the elites decide, Medvedev will come across to you just the same.
The Russian media does the same thing with Estonian politicians. They find the one thing that could be construed as hostile and play it ad nauseum. Of course, it's a joke because Estonia (pop 1.3 million) doesn't qualify as enemy of anyone.

As for Medvedev, he didn't used to be a KGB officer in East Germany. He's the same age as those kids they crushed with tanks in Lithuania in 1991. That is he is of our special Glasnost-Perestroika generation.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#39 at 06-06-2007 08:07 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
The Russian media does the same thing with Estonian politicians. They find the one thing that could be construed as hostile and play it ad nauseum. Of course, it's a joke because Estonia (pop 1.3 million) doesn't qualify as enemy of anyone.
It's also somewhat of a joke in that so very many Russians seem to know better than to take what their Establishment media has to say on a subject as unvarnished fact.

Hmm.. Maybe that extra decade-or-so of Communist rule was good for something after all...
As for Medvedev, he didn't used to be a KGB officer in East Germany. He's the same age as those kids they crushed with tanks in Lithuania in 1991. That is he is of our special Glasnost-Perestroika generation.
Facts like that have never made a significant difference before when it has come to opinion-shaping of the people by the elites. In the end it will -- as it always has -- come down to his policies and how well they overlap with their priorities.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#40 at 06-07-2007 03:36 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Hmm.. Maybe that extra decade-or-so of Communist rule was good for something after all...
Are you referring to the 1930s or the 2000s?
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#41 at 06-07-2007 09:17 AM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
It's also somewhat of a joke in that so very many Russians seem to know better than to take what their Establishment media has to say on a subject as unvarnished fact.
I found Italians were kind of like that too.
"My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didn´t replace it with nothing but lost faith."

Bruce Springsteen, 1987
http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY







Post#42 at 06-07-2007 01:16 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
Are you referring to the 1930s or the 2000s?


Seriously, though. You could hardly call Putin communist. Lots of other things, but definitely not that. Russians are pretty safe from communism for at least the next 3-4 generations.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#43 at 06-07-2007 01:32 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post


Seriously, though. You could hardly call Putin communist. Lots of other things, but definitely not that. Russians are pretty safe from communism for at least the next 3-4 generations.
See, I have been reading the recent Al Franken book The Truth: With Jokes and the slapstick is sticking to me.

It's actually quite good for a Boomer Culture War kind of book.

Anyway, I have taken to calling anyone who drapes themselves in red flags, such as Nashi, communists. Just because they don't have brains, doesn't mean I can't call them commies for waving red flags.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#44 at 06-07-2007 05:10 PM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
This is the kind of thing that happens when the generational cycle is oversimplified down to a war cycle.
The war cycle only coincides with the generational cycle when the war is, in current parlance, "elective". This doesn't mean that the generational cycle predicts aggression; it can mean simply not trying as hard for diplomacy in the face of another nation's aggression.

Russia was 4T at the First World War. I debated this a few years ago on this board and became convinced of it. Russia was 3T at the time of the 1905 Russo-Japanese War; the entire leadership was incompetent and decadent, a humiliating loss in war was taken as a direct result, new ideas about governance and the structure of society were being thrown around, and the populace was demoralized.

Russia, or at least the Russian aristocracy, WANTED the First World War. So much propaganda was made later about Germany's role in escalation that people forget that the chain of interlocking alliance mobilizations started when Russia mobilized against the Austro-Hungarians to defend their client Serbia. Russia wanted to regain their reputation and reassert their position in the Balkans. The cascade leading to the First Russian Revolution was on; I don't know enough about Russian history to be sure if the cascade was already rolling at that point.

Since the 4T started no later than 1914, it didn't end until the mid-1930's, when Stalin finally started to feel semi-safe and pulled back some on the purges and the pogroms and the gulags. (It never ended, even during the Great Patriotic War). The Five-Year Plans were going great guns and truly industrializing Russia. Stalin didn't want to enter WWII; he'd much rather have the capitalists wipe themselves out as Marx and Lenin predicted. Hence the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact -- which allowed some 1T imperial expansion for Russia. But Germany was now 4T and invaded anyway. This seriously torqued Stalin's plans for a great and glorious 1T -- hence the massive sphere-of-influence demands at Yalta, trying to get some 1T out of it anyway.

Russia went 2T exactly on schedule in 1954, when Khrushchev took power. 3T began with detente and passed through glasnost and perestroika. Even as late as 1991, with the Soviet Union visibly dying, the 3T persisted -- the "Commonwealth of Independent States" was envisioned as a looser Russian sphere. The bloom came off in 1993 with the coup attempt against Yeltsin. At that point Russia was 4T... if it wasn't obvious before that, the Caucasus soon made it so.

This analysis would argue that either Russia is still 4T, or that Putin has managed to end it early. But if it's over, where's the climax? What's unifying Russia for its new saeculum? What has sealed the new social compact? The victory of Chechnya hasn't done the trick, it appears, and it can't be the suppression of rebellion because they've been so successful at said suppression. So will something happen to lock down things? Justin? Any ideas?
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#45 at 06-08-2007 07:06 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by catfishncod View Post
Russia was 4T at the First World War. I debated this a few years ago on this board and became convinced of it. Russia was 3T at the time of the 1905 Russo-Japanese War; the entire leadership was incompetent and decadent, a humiliating loss in war was taken as a direct result, new ideas about governance and the structure of society were being thrown around, and the populace was demoralized.
Doesn't that actually sound a bit more like the beginning of a 4T? I know those are the words people are using to describe the Post-9/11 USA. The whole 'competence and being together' trait really doesn't come into play until the 4T is well underway. 1905 -- or shortly afterwards -- could very easily have been the 4T trigger. That'd line up fairly well with my contention that the late 20's saw the beginning of the 1T (which also coincided with the ultimate concretization of the direction that Russian society would be following for the next couple decades. As for WWI, It could very well have been, like Iraq in this US saeculum, a war much desired by a post-seasonal leadership which turned out to be the final triggering blow to the massive restructuring of society that comes mid-4T. So it still lines up pretty well.

You analysis of WWII Russia is spot-on, though, IMHO. The only difference being that it came at the tail-end of the 1T, rather than the beginning -- it would be worth noting how very little the shape of Russian society was impacted by the war (other than, of course, losing a whole hell of a lot of people).

Russia went 2T exactly on schedule in 1954, when Khrushchev took power.
Society was more than ready for a 2T ten years beforehand. One of the features of such a totalitarian system is that the outward signs of the Awakening are viciously suppressed, and as such the public face of it doesn't become apparent until its momentum is truly unstoppable. When Khrushchev came to power, the changes that followed immediately after were -- far from being radical and new -- merely a release of the long-building mood.

It's hard to place the 3T, but not hard to date its end. Mapping fairly well with their last cycle, the Russian leadership embarked on a war of choice (Afghanistan) which greatly contributed to the 4T breaking point (which is indisputably the fall of the Soviet Union). 4T hard times and jockying between the various visions and players continued until shortly after the default saw the concretization of the current social model/ruling party under Единая Россия/Putin at the very beginning of the '00s.

This analysis would argue that either Russia is still 4T, or that Putin has managed to end it early.
Understanding the past couple decades helps to see that the missing decade that you are looking for is mainly attributable to the fact that the Russian Awakening began a well before the death of the ruling autocrat made its widespread expression possible.

But if it's over, where's the climax?
The Climax was the default itself; the rock-bottom on which over the next two years the 1T Established Order was consolidated.

The actual 4T/1T crossover moment, since it didn't come tied to a war, probably can't be pinned down to a specific date or event. Suffice to say that sometime between the bottom of the post-Default days and the 2000-2001 beginnings of Russia's more overt meddlings in the dealings of the near-abroad countries (for an external marker) or the opening-to -wild-success of the Ikea in Khimki (with everything that entailed for an internal marker), the 1T came.

What's unifying Russia for its new saeculum?
Success, and the appreciation -- and determination -- that things are definitely going to be better for their kids than they were for their parents. What else do you need?

(Also, I think its a mistake to worry overmuch from a Turnings standpoint about the Chechen Wars; they're neither won nor lost nor particularly relevant to Russian society outside the Caucasus right now)
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#46 at 06-08-2007 07:17 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
Anyway, I have taken to calling anyone who drapes themselves in red flags, such as Nashi, communists. Just because they don't have brains, doesn't mean I can't call them commies for waving red flags.
I don't know about Nashi (they really don't seem all that prevalent outside Moscow). I think the Communists you're looking for are the opposition party called the National Bolsheviks (НацБол). They're the ones always pushing to incite the police -- granted not much of a challenge -- at demonstrations and whatnot to "provoke a response", after which point the Yablochniye or whoever who just showed up to walk and carry signs end up getting their heads whacked. They tend to be found hanging around Kasparov's events, too.

These guys
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#47 at 06-08-2007 11:08 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
The Climax was the default itself; the rock-bottom on which over the next two years the 1T Established Order was consolidated.
Justin, you know as well as I do that Chechens are fully capable of traveling to Moscow and taking over theaters. So it's not just a Caucuses thing.

The problem with the "new" regime in Russia is that it's not new. All the guys that run the Russian Foreign Ministry used to work at the Soviet foreign ministry. And yes, they're still as dumb.

This is confusing for the West because we all thought that there had been some kind of revolution in Russia in 1991 and that Russia was sort of on the same track as Romania or Poland -- you know, cleanse the foreign ministry of communist elements, take the dictators out and shoot them -- that kind of thing.

But today in Russia, if I read English correctly as I don't live there nor am capable of reading Russian, this "revolution" is known as the August Putsch.

The problem is that Yeltsin, and Gorbachev, acted very much like Russian revolutionaries might act. Taking responsibility for Katyn, taking responsibility for Molotov-Ribbentrop -- it seemed like the bad old days were behind us.

But the Russians don't talk like that anymore. There seems to be a total lack of compassion or understanding. It's just gas deals and "fuck you".

Here's a great American account of what's happened, from the Chicago Tribune. Indeed, Justin's account seems to be in line with the Russian narrative, just as I continue to complain about the destruction of the country in which I live as I read Estonian newspapers and it's still a very big deal here.

The apartment we may buy used to be a meeting place for all the Estonian bigwigs, the prime minister Tõnisson who lived down the street, the commander of armed forces Laidoner, and the last president Päts. They all died at the hands of the Soviets.

That's how history sometimes reaches out and touches you. Anyway:

Putin's Labyrinth

By Luke Allnutt, an editor at the Prague-based Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty
Published June 8, 2007

The behavior of Russian President Vladimir Putin has left politicians and diplomats scratching their heads. Last week, Putin threatened to point his missiles at Europe; now, at the Group of Eight summit in Germany, he says he wouldn't mind a joint U.S.-Russia anti-missile radar base, as long as it was sited in Azerbaijan rather than the Czech Republic.

The spat over the missile shield is the latest in a long line of dramas that are best understood not as part of a coherent Russian foreign policy, but rather as choreographed scenes intended for domestic consumption.

It was Josef Goebbels, Nazi Germany's propaganda minister, who once remarked "we must create the image of the enemy." In a year that will see parliamentary elections in Russia and the likely anointing of Putin's successor, that is exactly what the Kremlin is doing.

First, it was the Georgians, when, last fall, a routine spying row, which usually would have been handled quietly by diplomats, turned into a war with expulsions and bans on Georgian wine.

Then, in April, after the removal of a Soviet World War II monument, a Russian delegation made a very public dash to Estonia. Russian television denounced Estonians as unreconstructed fascists. The Putin-loyal Nashi movement attacked diplomats and then hacked Web sites.

Such events are only really significant when taken together as the building blocks in Russia's great new narrative.

The narrative goes something like this: In the 1990s, the West took advantage of an emasculated Russia, using oligarchs to strip the country of its wealth. Russia is encircled, with NATO perched on its borders. The colored revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia were funded and engineered by the West. Pro-Western neighbors are traitors, ungrateful for Soviet liberation from the Nazis. But now, Russia, emboldened by oil and gas wealth, is back on the world stage. Russia was humiliated, but will never be humiliated again.

As the popular tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda wrote on May 31, "it's a rare day that the average Russian citizen doesn't hear warnings about another Cold War or World War III. Citizens are informed of how the United States and NATO are establishing military bases all along Russia's perimeter."

This narrative of avenged humiliation is simplistic and undemanding, a comfort zone where outsiders are to blame for Russia's ills, where there is no scrupulous moral examination of the communist past or the increasingly authoritarian present.

And it is understandable why so many Russians, who lived for so long with perhaps the greatest tale of all, Marxism, are receptive to this new narrative. Humiliation hurts. In the 1990s, Russians couldn't afford to join the country club. They kept the greens and took out the trash.

But with more than 6 percent economic growth, a burgeoning middle class and a leader respected, if not feared internationally, they're back. Now they're paid-up members, on the golf course, crowding the bar area, and ordering tray after tray of gin slings.

Russians credit Putin with this. And it is this, and the economic growth, that explains his continually high approval ratings of more than 70 percent.

But like every good narrative, there is an element of the fantastical. In Guillermo del Toro's recent film, "Pan's Labyrinth," Ofelia constructs her magical kingdom to shield her from the horrors of fascist Spain.

In Putin's Russia, the delusions of grandeur, or of national rebirth, serve the same purpose: They comfort but, in the long-term, they will not sustain.

Oil prices won't stay high forever and the Russian economy has not diversified enough. There is an increasing gap between rich and poor and a looming population crisis. Freedoms are rapidly being eroded, with essentially a one-party system; supporters of the political opposition are beaten on the streets.

Political systems often collapse when the narrative diverges so widely from the reality. And that is Russia's worry; that is what has commentators gingerly making parallels between Putin's Russia and Weimar Germany.

But for now, it appears to be working, and we can expect more of the same in 2007. To avoid a chaotic and damaging transfer of power next year, the Kremlin will continue to shore up its support at home with posturing abroad. No doubt, the narrative will be further fleshed out and refined, with new players, new villains, and if Putin chooses a successor, even a new hero.

Andrew Wilson, an academic at University College London, predicts the "animating" narratives in Russia's election year are likely to be the "threat of extreme nationalism or the threat of Islamic terrorism."

It is also possible that more of Russia's neighbors could have their gas cut off, their Web sites hacked, or their products boycotted.

Or perhaps the Kremlin will spin a yarn about the threat of another colored revolution, this time in Russia. The Rose and Orange revolutions were just dry runs, spin doctors will say. Now the United States, armed with its missile-defense shield, is ready for the big one.

Copyright © 2007, Chicago Tribune
reposted for dicussion purposes
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#48 at 06-08-2007 11:25 AM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
1905 -- or shortly afterwards -- could very easily have been the 4T trigger.
Hmm... just to be sure I have your theory down right:

4T 1905-1927
1T 1927-1948
2T 1948-1968
3T 1968-1989
4T 1989-2001
1T 2001-

If the 4T/1T line is in the late 1920's, than the best candidate is the fourteenth Party Congress in December '27, where Stalin expelled Trotsky and took complete control. The 1T would then end with the last major Stalinist famine, the Berlin Airlift, the Soviet nuclear tests, and the establishment of the Warsaw Pact, all events that took place in 1948-1949. An Awakening couldn't start until the war emergencies were truly over, and that didn't happen until the 40's were almost over. I agree, though, that the Awakening was probably already in motion by 1954. Totalitarianism means such a dearth of reliable data...

Their 2T mood was spent around the peak of ours, i.e., around 1970. "National malaise" set in during Brezhnev's tenure and nobody could oust it until Gorbachev in the mid-80's... and that only brought on the deluge, as you point out. We differ only by a few years on the 4T -- 1989 vs. 1993.

Given all that, how is it that the latest 4T only lasted about twelve years?

4T hard times and jockying between the various visions and players continued until shortly after the default saw the concretization of the current social model/ruling party under Единая Россия/Putin at the very beginning of the '00s.

The Climax was the default itself; the rock-bottom on which over the next two years the 1T Established Order was consolidated.

The actual 4T/1T crossover moment, since it didn't come tied to a war, probably can't be pinned down to a specific date or event. Suffice to say that sometime between the bottom of the post-Default days and the 2000-2001 beginnings of Russia's more overt meddlings in the dealings of the near-abroad countries (for an external marker) or the opening-to-wild-success of the Ikea in Khimki (with everything that entailed for an internal marker), the 1T came.

Success, and the appreciation -- and determination -- that things are definitely going to be better for their kids than they were for their parents. What else do you need?
The moment and the cause at which society realized that Our Troubles Are Over. Was it Putin's calm and iron hand, restoring the iconography of The Good Old Days? What is it that makes Russia confident again?
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#49 at 06-08-2007 12:20 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by catfishncod View Post
Hmm... just to be sure I have your theory down right:

4T 1905-1927
1T 1927-1948
2T 1948-1968
3T 1968-1989
4T 1989-2001
1T 2001-
The 1T/2T boundary I'd say is pretty tough to pin down. That the case, I'd wonder if the you could better map a Russian turning with the '18-22' rule (just invented). That allows a relatively long 4T and 1T, and relatively short 2T and 3T, with the 4T beginning somewhere around the mid-80's turning point of the Afghan War, or -- better still -- the December 1986 beginning of rioting in the Republics as an indicator that the 4T mood was already there and in play. That gives a 16-18 year 3T as well if we use 2000/2001 as the 4T/1T boundary. Which takes care of the apparently short 4T.
If the 4T/1T line is in the late 1920's, than the best candidate is the fourteenth Party Congress in December '27, where Stalin expelled Trotsky and took complete control.
Yep. It lines up pretty well with what I understand to have been the social mood at the time. The path was set, and it was pretty well understood by all -- even those on the margins -- that this was just the way things were going to be for a while.
The moment and the cause at which society realized that Our Troubles Are Over. Was it Putin's calm and iron hand, restoring the iconography of The Good Old Days? What is it that makes Russia confident again?
I doubt that it's Putin in person so much as just the fact that it is clear to everyone that the worst is finally over and the paths to the future are bright. Frankly, Putin gets a fair bit of credit for this that he doesn't deserve. But the major social turning point was simply a realization that the hard times were over and that once again the shape of things to come was no longer a complete picture of chaos. People could start to invest and build for their futures again without the risk (whose realization literally everyone I know personally experienced in the 90s) of everything they have worked for being simply blown away.

Quote Originally Posted by Uzi
Justin, you know as well as I do that Chechens are fully capable of traveling to Moscow and taking over theaters. So it's not just a Caucuses thing.
Not what I said. Unlike in, for example, America (where the merest hint of terrorism has people crapping themselves and running around generally acting stupid), Russian society is basically not even reacting to the admittedly real threat of terrorist attack. As I said, from a social standpoint, the Chechen Wars simply don't matter to Russia.

And the "August putch" refers to the attempt by Communist hardliners to take over from Gorbachev. The ending of the USSR was a direct result of the plotters' failure.

As for the article you posted.

The same old line you hear from the West's opinion-making organs. Fortunately, the Russians who are actually building their resurgent economy -- with whom I am delighted to be associated -- don't pay this kind of tripe too much mind. They've already seen, over the course of the loot-em '90s just how much the West's opinion-makers are worth...
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#50 at 06-08-2007 12:31 PM by mattzs [at joined Mar 2007 #posts 201]
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Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
The 1T/2T boundary I'd say is pretty tough to pin down. That the case, I'd wonder if the you could better map a Russian turning with the '18-22' rule (just invented). That allows a relatively long 4T and 1T, and relatively short 2T and 3T, with the 4T beginning somewhere around the mid-80's turning point of the Afghan War, or -- better still -- the December 1986 beginning of rioting in the Republics as an indicator that the 4T mood was already there and in play. That gives a 16-18 year 3T as well if we use 2000/2001 as the 4T/1T boundary. Which takes care of the apparently short 4T.
Yep. It lines up pretty well with what I understand to have been the social mood at the time. The path was set, and it was pretty well understood by all -- even those on the margins -- that this was just the way things were going to be for a while.
I doubt that it's Putin in person so much as just the fact that it is clear to everyone that the worst is finally over and the paths to the future are bright. Frankly, Putin gets a fair bit of credit for this that he doesn't deserve. But the major social turning point was simply a realization that the hard times were over and that once again the shape of things to come was no longer a complete picture of chaos. People could start to invest and build for their futures again without the risk (whose realization literally everyone I know personally experienced in the 90s) of everything they have worked for being simply blown away.

Not what I said. Unlike in, for example, America (where the merest hint of terrorism has people crapping themselves and running around generally acting stupid), Russian society is basically not even reacting to the admittedly real threat of terrorist attack. As I said, from a social standpoint, the Chechen Wars simply don't matter to Russia.

And the "August putch" refers to the attempt by Communist hardliners to take over from Gorbachev. The ending of the USSR was a direct result of the plotters' failure.

As for the article you posted.

The same old line you hear from the West's opinion-making organs. Fortunately, the Russians who are actually building their resurgent economy -- with whom I am delighted to be associated -- don't pay this kind of tripe too much mind. They've already seen, over the course of the loot-em '90s just how much the West's opinion-makers are worth...
I thought they called it "privatization"!
Dori: The terrorist has demanded a million dollars, a private jet and an end to the Star Wars program.
Sledge Hammer: Yeah, three movies was enough.
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