Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Crazy Russia - Page 5







Post#101 at 07-13-2007 05:06 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-13-2007, 05:06 AM #101
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
Why do you need to change the subject?
How is that changing the subject? Berezovsky is just as connected to the whole Livinenko thing as is Lugovoi. And he's the only one of the two still polluting British soil.

I just want to see some Russian spooks get tossed out of London. I find it entertaining
I thought it was funnier when Putin decided not to expel the British spies they caught. "If we expel these ones, they might send replacements that are actually competent..." -- the man knows how to deliver a slam.

especially since the Russians warned the Brits not to do it and, I guess, anything about the murder.
You guess? The Russian Constitution forbids extradition. They've offered to prosecute Lugovoi inside Russia -- granted, a small concession, but still if the British were serious, they would have taken up the offer as a chance to at least Show The World how criminal the Russian system is. Instead they decided to posture and bloviate. I suppose their 4T leadership is no different from America's.

I mean Putin called the extradition request 'stupid'.
It was stupid. One might even add, 'juvenile' (which is closer to the meaning of the word Putin used). It was made clear from even prior to the outset that the Russian government is constitutionally unable to extradite. It's not like that was news to Britain. So the 'request' is really no more than a bit of theater on the part of the British government. Adults don't play games like that.

Litvinenko's killer? Well he's just a faceless Slav in a sea of ex-KGB agents. Maybe he also killed Anna Politkovskaja.
And Kennedy. Both of them. And MLK. I saw that X-Files episode...

Actually, considering the connections Litvinenko and Berezovsky cultivated with certain unsavory sorts, the killer could just as easily have been Albanian or any one of a number of Caucasian ethnicities as a Slav. The killer is, if the British government actually had any evidence that they knew who the killer was, these past couple of days would have been an excellent time to present their facts. Instead, they simply pound the table.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#102 at 07-13-2007 08:21 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-13-2007, 08:21 AM #102
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
How is that changing the subject? Berezovsky is just as connected to the whole Livinenko thing as is Lugovoi. And he's the only one of the two still polluting British soil.
The only difference between Berezovsky and Roman Abramovich is that Abramovich is friends with Putin. If Berezovsky was 'loyal' to Vladimir, then he probably wouldn't have a mark on his head.

I thought it was funnier when Putin decided not to expel the British spies they caught. "If we expel these ones, they might send replacements that are actually competent..." -- the man knows how to deliver a slam.
He is good at the one liners.

You guess? The Russian Constitution forbids extradition. They've offered to prosecute Lugovoi inside Russia -- granted, a small concession, but still if the British were serious, they would have taken up the offer as a chance to at least Show The World how criminal the Russian system is. Instead they decided to posture and bloviate. I suppose their 4T leadership is no different from America's.
Show the world? That's positively unBritish. Look at how the Iran hostage crisis part deux played out in March and April. Imagine if those had been American soldiers rather than Brits. The Brits like to work more behind the scenes, or as Jagger and Richards would put it, "under cover of the night."

Actually, considering the connections Litvinenko and Berezovsky cultivated with certain unsavory sorts, the killer could just as easily have been Albanian or any one of a number of Caucasian ethnicities as a Slav. The killer is, if the British government actually had any evidence that they knew who the killer was, these past couple of days would have been an excellent time to present their facts. Instead, they simply pound the table.
Or maybe it was MI5?!

So anway, we have unsolved murder and no justice. If the Brits really wanted to squeeze the Russians they would start hitting them in the nuts -- in the little Londonistan they've set up in their capital city.

Once the biznizmeni start complaining, I am sure they'll be more than ready to part with Lugovoi.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#103 at 07-13-2007 08:54 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-13-2007, 08:54 AM #103
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
The only difference between Berezovsky and Roman Abramovich is that Abramovich is friends with Putin. If Berezovsky was 'loyal' to Vladimir, then he probably wouldn't have a mark on his head.
Actually, from the stuff I've been reading on Putin lately, that's pretty likely. They say that he's one of those guys who takes betrayal very personally. And Berezovsky stabbed him in the back big-time after it became clear that Putin, and not he, was going to be The Man following Yeltsin.

Show the world? That's positively unBritish. Look at how the Iran hostage crisis part deux played out in March and April. Imagine if those had been American soldiers rather than Brits.
I don't know. There was a fair bit of pointless wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Limies then, too. But you're right, they do seem to have a better grip on themselves than do the leadership of the US...

So anway, we have unsolved murder and no justice. If the Brits really wanted to squeeze the Russians they would start hitting them in the nuts -- in the little Londonistan they've set up in their capital city.

Once the biznizmeni start complaining, I am sure they'll be more than ready to part with Lugovoi.
Now that'd be hilarious. Of course, since the mobsters in London mainly are there after fleeing Russia to avoid a reckoning, the only pressure their discomfort would put on Putin would probably be of a 'happiness in the pants' kind. If you presume that the killer was Putin's man, you can't figure that threatening to squeeze Putin's enemies will do anything to encourage him to overrule his country's constitution...

That's no reason not to do it, though. Those guys have been comfortable leeches on the civilized world for far too long. If Britain can only tag a few of them? well better a few than none at all...
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#104 at 07-13-2007 01:07 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-13-2007, 01:07 PM #104
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
That's no reason not to do it, though. Those guys have been comfortable leeches on the civilized world for far too long. If Britain can only tag a few of them? well better a few than none at all...
See, if I was a Putin apologist -- like some members of the American businessclass in Russia today -- I would slam you for 'Russophobia' on the last point.

Because if you want to extradite a guy accused of killing a British citizen -- whatever that citizenship is worth -- then you must hate all Russians. I am not referring to you, just some crap I have been reading on Ed Lucas' blog.

Anyway, I have got to hand it to the Israelis. They've taught the whole world how to turn a narrative of victimization into a rhetorical position of strength.

The victimization-by-external-power narrative is becoming to the nation-state what the parliamentary system has become for democracies.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#105 at 07-15-2007 03:27 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-15-2007, 03:27 AM #105
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Unilaterally pulling out of the 1972 ABM treaty (got to preserve our power to fight against those scary Ay-rab turrisss) finally bears fruit, only six years and a lot of poking later.

And the world is now a safer place.

Thanks, guys. I was getting worried that my kids might not get to grow up in the shadow of impending death like I did.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#106 at 07-15-2007 05:58 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-15-2007, 05:58 AM #106
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Unilaterally pulling out of the 1972 ABM treaty (got to preserve our power to fight against those scary Ay-rab turrisss) finally bears fruit, only six years and a lot of poking later.

And the world is now a safer place.

Thanks, guys. I was getting worried that my kids might not get to grow up in the shadow of impending death like I did.
I have a feeling that this 4T is going to end up with a Europeans-only defense organization. It's not just that just that I think it's a neat idea. I understand that many older defense policy architects grew up when US-European cooperation was vital (Marshall Plan, anyone?), but to constantly get pushed back and forth at whatever clique is in power in Washington or Moscow is just annoying ... and destabilizing.

Maybe that's Moscow's longterm plan. Isolate the Europeans from the Americans, then pick them apart one by one with sweetheart deals.

If you presume that the killer was Putin's man, you can't figure that threatening to squeeze Putin's enemies will do anything to encourage him to overrule his country's constitution...
Here's what I think about Litvinenko. I think that despite Putin's macho posturing, allegedly from having a booming economy, Russia is still a structural mess.

I think that the FSB is less of a intelligence/security organization and more of a mafia-esque network of little cells operating in the gray world between legitimate politics and murky business. You can be FSB and work at the embassy and be in contact with more nefarious criminal/black market networks.

Litvinenko was serving up secrets on Russian businessmen to British investors, he apparently knew things that required his elimination, one of these 'rogue cells' inside the FSB obtained the Polonium through a government contact and assassinated Litvinenko. Perhaps the ex-KGB Lugovoi was involved.

I don't actually believe that Putin called up someone in London and said 'I want him dead.' If he had that power a lot more people would be dead. Instead I think that this presents a dilemma for him.

If Lugovoi goes to London he will probably open up and everyone will see what a structural mess Russia is. They will see that Putin doesn't have it together and that Russia's recent assertiveness is mostly bluffing. That will be many times more damaging to Putin's political position than just keeping Lugovoi in Russia and making witty one liners about the British investigation.

I don't think the Constitution matters here. The Russians, in reality, are bound to many different and sometimes conflicting treaties they have signed since they were in their previous incarnation. They can pick and choose what they wish to follow.

So Putin chose to take the position that makes him look the most strong, rather than sell off Lugovoi to a West that will hate him no matter what and have Lugovoi reveal how structurally flawed the FSB really is.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#107 at 07-15-2007 07:22 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-15-2007, 07:22 AM #107
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
Maybe that's Moscow's longterm plan. Isolate the Europeans from the Americans, then pick them apart one by one with sweetheart deals.
Well; Moscow is one of Europe's more significant trading partners. Plus, a neighbor of sorts. Nothing wrong with getting along with your neighbors.

Here's what I think about Litvinenko. I think that despite Putin's macho posturing, allegedly from having a booming economy, Russia is still a structural mess.
I'm unsure what you mean by 'structural'. Plenty of things here are still pretty messy. But on the economic fundamentals they're pretty well hooked up. The view from Moscow may be a bit different; but (thank god) Russia's not just Moscow.
Now politically they're pretty screwed-up. But not so you could really tell them apart from the rest of Europe.

So what mess are you talking about?

Your hypothetical narrative on Litvinenko is interesting and reasonably plausible. Though it leaves out some of the other characters that arose during the affair and their links to arms trading in the Caucasus (Berezovskiy, Scaramella, even Litvinenko himself). You have to at least allow for the reality that there are parties in that realm whose interests would be served in isolating the Russian government from the rest of the civilized world. Regardless the guilty party, it's certainly the way they spun it as soon as it had happened.

I don't think the Constitution matters here. The Russians, in reality, are bound to many different and sometimes conflicting treaties they have signed since they were in their previous incarnation. They can pick and choose what they wish to follow.
I'm unaware of any treaty they had signed with the United Kingdom concerning extradition. So though their laws and treaties may in general be a messy, conflicting hodge-podge, in this case, the position they took from the outset was the only one they could have been expected to take -- the only one they could take. Where it matters, though, is in the fact that the British political powers were well aware both of the Russian position and of the grounds upon which it was anchored. The only possible explanation, then, for demanding something that they knew was not possible is that it was all a piece of theater. The sort of game that adults generally don't play.
The fact that it plays well for local consumption is irrelevant (or secondary at best). After all, the current US president would probably improve his standing among his people too, if he started acting within the bounds of America's constitution...
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#108 at 07-15-2007 02:37 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-15-2007, 02:37 PM #108
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Well; Moscow is one of Europe's more significant trading partners. Plus, a neighbor of sorts. Nothing wrong with getting along with your neighbors.

I'm unsure what you mean by 'structural'. Plenty of things here are still pretty messy. But on the economic fundamentals they're pretty well hooked up. The view from Moscow may be a bit different; but (thank god) Russia's not just Moscow.
Now politically they're pretty screwed-up. But not so you could really tell them apart from the rest of Europe.

So what mess are you talking about?
I mean that the FSB has little group offices that might function independent of one another and -- in the case of Litvinenko -- fuck up. I mean *someone* left a trail of Polonium across Europe on their way back to Moscow. That's what is called messy work.

If you were presiding over that, how would you handle that very big mess up?
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#109 at 07-15-2007 02:53 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-15-2007, 02:53 PM #109
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
You have to at least allow for the reality that there are parties in that realm whose interests would be served in isolating the Russian government from the rest of the civilized world.
As convincing as the magic bullet theory. The 'killed him to make Russia look bad' concept. That was the first idea out of the Russian Foreign Ministry. When in doubt, blame Berezovsky. Global warming? Boris Berezovsky

Where it matters, though, is in the fact that the British political powers were well aware both of the Russian position and of the grounds upon which it was anchored. The only possible explanation, then, for demanding something that they knew was not possible is that it was all a piece of theater. The sort of game that adults generally don't play.
The 'responsible' idea would be to allow them to pursue the case in Russian courts. But the British prosecutors feel that the Russian courts are a joke. They are probably right. So the only thing they can do to save face (over the fact that they can't do anything about this murder and polonium exposure to many innocent British civilians) is get into a tift with Russia over it.

Why not? Gordon Brown wants to look like he's in charge. Iraq is a mess. He just had the spectre of terrorism raised in Glasgow. Britain is so weak that it can't even catch and try a murderer in London, and Vladimir Putin, that obnoxious twit, is thumbing his nose at them. The answer? Expel some diplomats.

Putin probably wants him to do it too. Putin's whole presidency is set up on an image of himself as a protector against the wicked West with its evil opportunistic NGOs that will install Garry Kasparov King of Russia. He'll get bonus points if he expels some Brits too. He already sicked his Nashi Jugend on the British Ambassador last year. I am sure he is ready for another row.

The fact that it plays well for local consumption is irrelevant (or secondary at best). After all, the current US president would probably improve his standing among his people too, if he started acting within the bounds of America's constitution...
W. -- as evidenced by the Libby pardon -- cares more about protecting his own than the law. Putin strikes me as a similar kind of guy.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#110 at 07-16-2007 04:21 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-16-2007, 04:21 AM #110
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
As convincing as the magic bullet theory. The 'killed him to make Russia look bad' concept. That was the first idea out of the Russian Foreign Ministry. When in doubt, blame Berezovsky. Global warming? Boris Berezovsky
As Keyser Szauzey said, "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#111 at 07-16-2007 10:15 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-16-2007, 10:15 AM #111
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
As Keyser Szauzey said, "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist."
The devil doesn't exist
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#112 at 07-16-2007 11:35 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-16-2007, 11:35 AM #112
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

No visas for you.

It's a pathetic first try, but I guess they'll expel the rest of the critters when things get really bad.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#113 at 07-17-2007 05:57 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-17-2007, 05:57 AM #113
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Ah, so this is what this is all about.

The U.K., which is the largest foreign investor in Russia, could find that British companies are barred from major new energy projects, said Lukyanov. BP Plc's Russian joint venture is the third-largest oil producer in Russia and last month had to surrender control of the giant Kovykta gas field to state gas monopoly OAO Gazprom.

You know, one of the upsides of the Estonian monument controversy was that it supposedly lessened Russian business interest in Estonia. This was encouraged by our PM who essentially said at his party congress this spring "the less Russian capital, the better."

I wonder if Putin thinks that he can play this so that UK capital flees Russia. Then Russian state-owned companies can move in and take over. Then you'll have one party rule and state-ownership of most major industries. Our Vladimir is a regular Mussolini. And remember, Mussolini made the trains run on time.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#114 at 07-17-2007 07:40 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-17-2007, 07:40 AM #114
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

You do realize that the vast majority of these foreign 'investment' deals bear some distressing resemblance to the 'investment' deals that Hallibruton and the like are getting on Iraq's oil fields.

Even the industries are the same.

There's nothing wrong with re-evaluating largely one-sided contracts that were signed by crooks.

(and btw, the 'Mussolini made the trains run on time' meme is a myth. The only place where fascism proved an effective organizational concept outside the military was in its own propaganda.)
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#115 at 07-17-2007 08:43 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-17-2007, 08:43 AM #115
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
(and btw, the 'Mussolini made the trains run on time' meme is a myth. The only place where fascism proved an effective organizational concept outside the military was in its own propaganda.)
The 'Putin brought stability' meme is also a myth. How many real allies does Russia have these days? Relations with most of its neighbors are strained -- Georgia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, even Ukraine. Finland trades like hell with them while holding its nose. The US 'saw Putin's soul' in the early 00s -- not anymore. Now Britain. France's Sarkozy won't have anything to do with them. You've got pro-NATO conservatives (!) in power in Sweden and Finland (yes, Swedish PM Reinfeldt supported Bush in 2000 and 2004).

It looks like their only die-hard allies are Castro, Chavez, and Ahmadinejad. The one country to be worried about is Germany. Russia's had its fun with Georgia, then Estonia, now Britain. Just wait for the pre-election nationalist fury to hit the Germans. That's when the other shoe will drop.

This is the environment the stability-bringing Putin and his foreign ministry (who should all be fired) is helping to create for Russia.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#116 at 07-17-2007 09:03 AM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
---
07-17-2007, 09:03 AM #116
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Moorhead, MN, USA
Posts
14,442

Quote Originally Posted by Uzi View Post
The 'Putin brought stability' meme is also a myth. How many real allies does Russia have these days? Relations with most of its neighbors are strained -- Georgia, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, even Ukraine. Finland trades like hell with them while holding its nose. The US 'saw Putin's soul' in the early 00s -- not anymore. Now Britain. France's Sarkozy won't have anything to do with them. You've got pro-NATO conservatives (!) in power in Sweden and Finland (yes, Swedish PM Reinfeldt supported Bush in 2000 and 2004).

It looks like their only die-hard allies are Castro, Chavez, and Ahmadinejad. The one country to be worried about is Germany. Russia's had its fun with Georgia, then Estonia, now Britain. Just wait for the pre-election nationalist fury to hit the Germans. That's when the other shoe will drop.

This is the environment the stability-bringing Putin and his foreign ministry (who should all be fired) is helping to create for Russia.
It seems like Europe is both going right-wards and becoming more assertive. If this is a premonition of what is to come in the 4T I don't know.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#117 at 07-17-2007 10:52 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-17-2007, 10:52 AM #117
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

The German response.


The conservative Die Welt writes:

"The resentment behind this move has been building for a long time. And it isn't just due to the fact that the Western nations haven't ratified the CFE treaty because Moscow has delayed its promised pull out from Georgia and Moldova. Russia is just as upset about NATO's eastward expansion and the planned US missile shield for Europe. Taken alone, the Russian president would hardly get worked up about these issues. But bundled together, the Russians see what they perceive as a plot against them. And by 'freezing' the most important treaty related to European security, Putin is clearly showing how seriously he takes the situation. At the same time, he isn't completely abandoning the treaty -- there is still room for an agreement."

"Nevertheless, if one listens to the tone that accompanies Putin's CFE decrees, there's a whole new dimension. This suddenly has to do with the new role Putin sees for Russia in the world. The treaty came into being during a time of Russian weakness. Now that Russia has regained its strength, many voices in Moscow are calling for the country to withdraw from the treaty. If that becomes the official position, though, Europe could be entering a difficult period."

The center-left Süddeutsche Zeitung writes:

"Whoever thought Putin's saber-rattling wouldn't be followed by actions was wrong: Putin is now unilaterally abandoning CFE. The decision won't take effect for 150 days, so there is time for negotiations. But it is too late for conciliation. Putin has swung an axe at one of the pillars of European peace. The CFE treaty is more than just a run-of-the-mill disarmament treaty ... The signatures on the treaty in 1990 sealed the end of the Cold War. If it is nullified, then the continent would face a new era of distrust. And if that happened, the Europeans would become the victims of a feud between Putin and US President George W. Bush. The decree is a response to the US's planned missile defense shield, which has nothing to do with the conventional weapons covered in CFE. Russia fears a tipping of the strategic balance in the area of missiles with nuclear warheads. While that concern may be valid, it does not justify Russia's pullout from the CFE treaty.

"The goal of this treaty was to make military conflicts in Europe unlikely -- or, better yet, impossible. If Russia pulls out, it will lose any credibility it has in presenting itself as a peaceful European power. ... Out of sheer anger towards the US, Putin is pursuing policies that are steering his country farther and farther away from his partners in Europe."

"Putin's decision doesn't just send a signal to the West. It also represents a calculated domestic policy. The thought that the West fleeced Russia after the end of the Cold War has permeated broad swaths of Russian society. The 'national interests' that Putin swears by also serve to guarantee his own strength. And though that may create stability for the Russian system created by Putin in the run-up to parliamentary and presidential elections, it does not create stability for Europe."

The left-leaning Die Tageszeitung writes:

"The last thing a country that feels threatened should do is tamper with structures that have ensured European security for more than 17 years. But by pulling out of CFE, that's exactly what Moscow is doing. The treaty is one of the few that won't have to be renegotiated in the coming decades. So why the latest disruptive action? Adherents of realpolitik can draw only one conclusion: Russia feels more secure than it ever has before and it doesn't know how to deal with it. Russian thinking seems to be following the maxim: Those who don't have enemies won't be taken seriously. Of course, elections are coming soon in Russia -- and there's not much more behind these salvos than that."

The paper also argues that, despite its irritation over the missile shield, it's arrogance that is the result of a Putin drunk on gas and oil money that is pushing the issue. "Russia wants to be asked to sit at the same table as the big powers and it wants to strengthen an international role that it no longer possesses. It is suffering from a bloated self-image of its own power. Still, its petrodollar-filled coffers don't hold nearly enough for it to launch a new arms race."

Business daily Handelsblatt writes:

"Sure, Putin has a water-tight argument: The majority of NATO member states haven't ratified the arms control treaty. And not everyone agrees with their justification for this -- that Russia hasn't withdrawn its troops from Georgia and Moldova. At the same time, despite his spiteful response, Putin should be asking himself what he wants to do? Does he want to build new tanks, new howitzers and new fighter jets? And if so, then what does he want to do with his re-built arsenal? Is he dreaming of a renaissance of the glorious Soviet empire? Putin should know where his true interests lie: in a peaceful Europe that offers an enormous market for Russia's huge energy reserves."
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#118 at 07-22-2007 02:59 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-22-2007, 02:59 AM #118
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

A more calm perspective
When a journalist from Trybuna, a Polish daily, suggested that Poles might need to think about buying warm clothes to prepare for being sent to Siberia in the case of a Russian retaliation to the missile shield project, Army General Yury Baluyevsky, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, said it wasn't warm clothes they would need, but protective equipment.

"The decision to place [the shield] on Polish soil was taken by the Polish government. It seems to fully realize what kind of retaliation this may lead to... What they really should be concerned about is what will happen in the event that the shield works at all," Baluyevsky said.
"Intercepted missiles will disperse over your territory, and you will need to think not about warm clothes, but about acquiring gas masks and other protective equipment," he said.

The chief of staff dismissed the Pentagon's justification for the shield plans.
"As for the arguments [in favor of the shield], they can be described very simply - non-existent," he said in the interview, which was re-published on the Russian Defense Ministry's website.

He said that even the architects of a Europe-based U.S. anti-missile solution had already dropped their assertion that North Korea ever posed a missile threat to U.S. or Europe, and that "talk of a hypothetical Iranian threat takes a leaf from the same book," adding that this claim was also likely to be dropped soon.

When asked why Russia, with its powerful nuclear arsenal, is afraid of a handful of U.S. missiles in Poland, he said Russia was worried about the "third site" as an element of a much broader agenda.
"Of course a dozen such missiles as the Americans are planning to deploy in Poland - unproven and untested as they are - are not seen as a direct threat to Russia's deterrent capability," he said. "However, the U.S. doctrine treats missile defense as part of a broader 'strategic triad,' which also includes offensive strategic weapons."

"We are sure that U.S. missile defense capability, including a proposed European site, would develop, and its anti-Russian capability would grow in the future," Baluyevsky said. "In such an environment, we would be forced to take appropriate countermeasures."
He said Washington's decision to deploy a missile shield in Europe was "logical, but only under a logic that belongs to a past era."

"You have Russia and the United States, and both have to reduce their nuclear capabilities. What you want is to be able to deliver a first strike while minimizing your potential enemy's ability to do so. To achieve that, you need to encircle the enemy's territory with offensive and missile-defense bases. . . This is normal military logic. The only problem is that this is the logic of a past era - the Cold War, and standoffs between blocs in Europe."
"During that era, there were ideological grounds. . . Today, there is no such confrontation, but the ideas of that era seem to be alive and well. This is where the logic breaks," Baluyevsky said.

During the interview, Baluyevsky took a global map of U.S. anti-missile sites and said that "all these sites are close to Russian borders, all are looking toward Russia. This is the reason why we have said our country is being militarily encircled."

When asked about Europe's apparent indecision over the shield, Baluyevsky praised the EU for its readiness to discuss all difficult issues.
"The issue affects all Europeans and must therefore be discussed on a multilateral basis," he said.
"It is dangerous to make decisions of such seriousness without even talking to your neighbors," he added.

Baluyevsky denied that Russia's recent reaction to missile plans was "knee-jerk," and said that historically, cooperation between Russia and the West was always more effective than fighting. He declined to give his personal assessment of Poland's policies concerning the shield and other issues.
"Assessments of the actions of a foreign government is not my territory. The Poles have elected this government and only they are in a position to decide whether its course is satisfactory and whether the alliances this government makes are good. What makes me sad is the current relationship that we have with Poland - on the state as well as military level," he said.

"I think what is happening now in Russian-Polish relations will also become history, albeit one with an unpleasant aftertaste. I am optimistic; I believe that good sense will prevail eventually," Russia's top general said.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#119 at 07-23-2007 11:23 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-23-2007, 11:23 AM #119
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77 View Post
Their posturing depends on who they are trying to appeal to. To the Western Europeans -- who will probably read this RIA Novosti piece when it gets picked up by their lazy journalists -- the message will be "we are so calm and ready to talk." The "put missiles in Azerbaijan" route was intended for Merkel and EU consumption.

Russia is trying to use its closeness with the German Social Democrats (Schroeder, accurately labeled a 'political prostitute' by US Rep. and Holocaust survivor Tom Lantos, is on the board of Gazprom) to keep away any clout the Poles might have in the EU.

When it comes to the parts of the EU that used to have Soviet troops on them, Russia will probably use veiled threats of pointing missiles at Europe or a troop build up along the border to intimidate them, while characterizing them as 'paranoid' to the Western Europeans.

This will pit the East Europeans and the Anglo-Americans against the Western Europeans and lead to political deadlock. Then the deal-making Russians will move in and take the spoils one by one by romancing one country (Hungary), ignoring another (France) and admonishing a third (Estonia).

Only the rightwing, unfortunately, "gets" this modus operandi.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#120 at 07-25-2007 03:04 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
---
07-25-2007, 03:04 PM #120
Join Date
Sep 2005
Posts
3,018

Russian youth: Stalin good, migrants must go: poll

http://www.reuters.com/article/world...rpc=22&sp=true
MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia's youths admire Soviet dictator Josef Stalin -- who presided over the deaths of millions of people -- and want to kick immigrants out of Russia, according to a poll released on Wednesday.

The poll, carried out by the Yuri Levada Centre, was presented by two U.S. academics who called it "The Putin Generation: the political views of Russia's youth".

When asked if Stalin was a wise leader, half of the 1,802 respondents, aged from 16 to 19, agreed he was.

"Fifty-four percent agreed that Stalin did more good than bad," said Theodore Gerber, a sociologist from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. "Forty-six percent disagreed with the statement that Stalin was a cruel tyrant."

Stalin, who took over from Vladimir Lenin, built a system of terror and repression in which tens millions of people died or were killed. He died in 1953.

"What we find troubling is that there is a substantial proportion of young people in Russia today who hold positive or ambivalent views on Stalin and his legacy," Gerber said.

"We think it would probably be more appropriate if there was more condemnation of the Stalin era."

The poll showed 17 percent of the young people disagreed that Stalin was responsible for the imprisonment, torture and execution of millions of innocent people, while 40 percent thought his role in the repression had been exaggerated.

The majority of respondents thought the collapse of the Soviet Union was a tragedy and two thirds thought that America was a rival and enemy. Only a fifth viewed Iran as a potential rival or enemy.

Most young people also wanted immigrants kicked out of Russia: 62 percent said they agreed with the statement that the Russian government should evict most immigrants.

But 64 percent agreed with the idea that immigrants should be allowed to have Russian citizenship if they abided with Russian laws and customs.

The poll showed the biggest concern for the youth was the problem of drugs, followed by unemployment, poverty, corruption, education, crime, HIV/AIDS and ecology.







Post#121 at 07-26-2007 12:24 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-26-2007, 12:24 AM #121
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Not only are Russian kids sort of not the most accurate of historians, but they have views on immigration which mirror America's!!! Illegal immigrants should go home, unless they assimilate... The horror, the horror...

(it's a bit bizarre; I can't find anything on the Yuri Levada Centre in Russian on the Inter Nets. Who are they?)
Last edited by Justin '77; 07-26-2007 at 12:27 AM.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#122 at 07-26-2007 01:35 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-26-2007, 01:35 PM #122
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Unfortunately I have come across some quite xenophobic attitudes in my dealings with Russians. I had one colleage -- a journalist from Karelia who was my age, well educated, successful -- tell me that 'all Chechens should be killed.' I'll never forget that moment. It was perhaps like being in Berlin in the 1930s.

Now, let's get one thing straight, I probably wouldn't shed a tear if a meteorite wiped out this summer's Nashi Putin Youth camp. But I don't think I have ever heard support of genocide voiced so often and without a hint of sarcasm.

That's where the favorable view on Stalin comes into play. Because I think that deep down, *some* Russians are comfortable with Soviet population transfer (ie. genocide) policy. I have had to limit comments on my blog to registered users so as to prohibit whatever Russian net nazi from coming on and writing once again how everyone in the Baltics should be annihilated and/or assimilated. Because some will defend the actions Stalin took here. Some will openly defend the deportation and subsequent deaths of civilian children. If that's not 'evil' than I don't really know what is.

The common excuse that the United States is stupid too is the often knee jerk response from some Russian analysts. That's right -- the United States is sometimes all those things too. But that doesn't mean that Russia is not, just because the United States is. The view of current geopolitics is similarly backwards. They really think that NATO 'chewed' its way to their borders, like the people that live next to them had no say in it or prefered to live sans military alliance next to a historically hostile neighbor.

The foreign policy elite thinks they simply 'lost' Georgia, as if sometime in the future it will be 'found'. They forget that Georgia used to be, pardon my English, a fucking shithole until some people with brains decided that they also wanted to have heating systems that worked and nice shiny cars and the Internet in every home, and that meant cosying up economically to the EU and the US. And the Georgians used to be the number one enemy of Russia for that, before Estonia took the top slot for moving a war memorial to a military cemetery.

I really don't know what to say about all of this. When my colleague made her comment about killing Chechens I bit my lip. My other colleagues did too. We treat Russia like a crazy relative who can't be reasoned with. If I had any balls I would have just called her what she was, a friggin Nazi, and would have been done with it. But we in the West still bite our lips at such things, and perhaps abet such attitudes.

I would like to end this by saying that most of the Russians I have met from St. Petersburg have not been like that. They have been the most compassionate and okay with diversity. They have been the ones saying, "oh, Estonia, it's a beautiful country." You'll notice that Nashi is not particularly strong there. So Justin's impression of this intriguing country is probably accurate, considering the dude actually lives there.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#123 at 07-26-2007 03:45 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
---
07-26-2007, 03:45 PM #123
Join Date
Jul 2006
Location
Upstate New York
Posts
1,285

However from what I understand of russian politics, nashi are putin's youth group. Unfortunatly putin's circle seems to be the centrist faction. Some of the opposition parties such as the National Bolsheviks and the "liberal democrats" seem to far more hardline.







Post#124 at 07-26-2007 04:45 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
---
07-26-2007, 04:45 PM #124
Join Date
Oct 2005
Posts
2,254

Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
However from what I understand of russian politics, nashi are putin's youth group. Unfortunatly putin's circle seems to be the centrist faction. Some of the opposition parties such as the National Bolsheviks and the "liberal democrats" seem to far more hardline.
Oh yeah, there are some in Russia that believe that anywhere a Russian ever crapped belongs to Russia. It's ancient Russian land -- like Alaska.

Putin is from St. Petersburg, unlike Stalin who was from a hut in Georgia.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#125 at 07-27-2007 01:38 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
07-27-2007, 01:38 AM #125
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Quote Originally Posted by Semo '75 View Post
Now that strikes me as a bit bizarre, since the Levada Center is a pretty well known independent public opinion research firm. Try: http://www.levada.ru
Me as bizarre, too. When I plugged them into my two main search engines (that'd be www.google.com and www.yandex.com) the other day, and - nothing. Repeat today and your link comes up in the number one place on both...

Anyway, thanks.
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky
-----------------------------------------