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Thread: Crazy Russia - Page 7







Post#151 at 08-12-2008 11:13 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by 1990 View Post
What are the Russians going for? They have the military strength to outright annex Georgia if that is their aim, but so far that's not how this is unfolding. They took South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and Senaki, but deny that they've taken Gori, a critical strategy point with Georgia's only west-east highway. Georgia claims Russia has taken Gori and that the Georgian military has retreated to defend Tbilisi against an expected Russian invasion there, but Russia claims it has no plans to move deeper into Georgia. Much as I don't trust any Russian government line on this, Georgia's credibility is also far from established (Exhibit A: Saakashvili signs a ceasefire, concedes defeat in South Ossetia, then promptly starts shelling South Ossetia again).

So what is this about? Georgia and Russia both know the U.S. and Europe won't go to war with the Great Bear for the sake of a tiny country in the Caucasus. I have been watching the Google News headlines roll by all day and have not seen any more confirmed military milestones since this morning, when Russia admitted to taking Senaki but denied taking Gori. It's obvious that this can no longer be called the "South Ossetia War" as Wikipedia dubs it, since fighting is now occurring in Georgia proper, but where is this heading, and what do these people want?

Moreover, would you say Russia (or Georgia for that matter) is acting in a "hot" 4T fashion, or using consolidating 1T strategies? This might be our chance to come to some sort of consensus about the timeline in former Soviet nations.

EDIT: Sounds like Russia also took Zugdidi earlier today. Georgia insists the Russians are moving in on Tbilisi, while the Russians say they are only working to secure South Ossetia, Abkhazia, and surrounding areas in the north. To hear Saakashvili tell it, Putin is the new Hitler and Ossetia is the new Sudetenland. I'm inclined to agree with such a harsh assessment, but am still trying to learn more about the conflict.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080812/..._ossetia_dc_93
Russia orders halt to war, Georgia skeptical
If true, and if followed through, the Russian agreement to halt actions (with contingencies, I'm sure) is a surprise and looks impressive to me. Although it would still seem to me a very heavy-handed response should it prove to be just retaliation for the initial Georgian attack, it would be much more welcome than either a more strategic grab for control of the pipeline or a returned to a strategy of hegemony over former Soviet states. Perhaps Russia wants to reassert itself but more along the lines of what Tom Barnett refers to as a "Core Nation" seeking global stability.

http://www.thomaspmbarnett.com/weblo...ble_quest.html

Fascinating times.

Very interested in your expanding on this Russia in the 4T theme!
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#152 at 08-12-2008 11:26 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by catfishncod View Post
Vizzini. 'nuff said.
Aren't the Georgians just Sicilians with more high mountains than deep waters?
Both are pretty darn good 'traders' particular x-border, and at night.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#153 at 08-12-2008 11:55 AM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
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Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Perhaps Russia wants to reassert itself but more along the lines of what Tom Barnett refers to as a "Core Nation" seeking global stability.
Sounds like living space to me.







Post#154 at 08-12-2008 12:13 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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This is interesting. These Debka guys are pretty connected within the IDF. This is from Aug 8, when Georgia had made the first move (as far as I know). I didn't know that Georgian tanks and infantry had captured the regional capital nor did I know that Medvedev called the UN Security Council into emergency session prior to going in.

The insights on the pipeline proposals is fascinating.

http://www.debka.com/article.php?aid=1358

Georgian tanks and infantry, aided by Israeli military advisers, captured the capital of breakaway South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, early Friday, Aug. 8, bringing the Georgian-Russian conflict over the province to a military climax.

Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin threatened a “military response.”

Former Soviet Georgia called up its military reserves after Russian warplanes bombed its new positions in the renegade province.

In Moscow’s first response to the fall of Tskhinvali, president Dimitry Medvedev ordered the Russian army to prepare for a national emergency after calling the UN Security Council into emergency session early Friday.

Reinforcements were rushed to the Russian “peacekeeping force” present in the region to support the separatists.

Georgian tanks entered the capital after heavy overnight heavy aerial strikes, in which dozens of people were killed.

Lado Gurgenidze, Georgia's prime minister, said on Friday that Georgia will continue its military operation in South Ossetia until a "durable peace" is reached. "As soon as a durable peace takes hold we need to move forward with dialogue and peaceful negotiations."

DEBKAfile’s geopolitical experts note that on the surface level, the Russians are backing the separatists of S. Ossetia and neighboring Abkhazia as payback for the strengthening of American influence in tiny Georgia and its 4.5 million inhabitants. However, more immediately, the conflict has been sparked by the race for control over the pipelines carrying oil and gas out of the Caspian region.

The Russians may just bear with the pro-US Georgian president Mikhail Saakashvili’s ambition to bring his country into NATO. But they draw a heavy line against his plans and those of Western oil companies, including Israeli firms, to route the oil routes from Azerbaijan and the gas lines from Turkmenistan, which transit Georgia, through Turkey instead of hooking them up to Russian pipelines.

Saakashvili need only back away from this plan for Moscow to ditch the two provinces’ revolt against Tbilisi. As long as he sticks to his guns, South Ossetia and Abkhazia will wage separatist wars.

DEBKAfile discloses Israel’s interest in the conflict from its exclusive military sources:

Jerusalem owns a strong interest in Caspian oil and gas pipelines reach the Turkish terminal port of Ceyhan, rather than the Russian network. Intense negotiations are afoot between Israel Turkey, Georgia, Turkmenistan and Azarbaijan for pipelines to reach Turkey and thence to Israel’s oil terminal at Ashkelon and on to its Red Sea port of Eilat. From there, supertankers can carry the gas and oil to the Far East through the Indian Ocean.

Aware of Moscow’s sensitivity on the oil question, Israel offered Russia a stake in the project but was rejected.

Last year, the Georgian president commissioned from private Israeli security firms several hundred military advisers, estimated at up to 1,000, to train the Georgian armed forces in commando, air, sea, armored and artillery combat tactics. They also offer instruction on military intelligence and security for the central regime. Tbilisi also purchased weapons, intelligence and electronic warfare systems from Israel.

These advisers were undoubtedly deeply involved in the Georgian army’s preparations to conquer the South Ossetian capital Friday.

In recent weeks, Moscow has repeatedly demanded that Jerusalem halt its military assistance to Georgia, finally threatening a crisis in bilateral relations. Israel responded by saying that the only assistance rendered Tbilisi was “defensive.”

This has not gone down well in the Kremlin. Therefore, as the military crisis intensifies in South Ossetia, Moscow may be expected to punish Israel for its intervention.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#155 at 08-12-2008 12:52 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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Radical thought

Did any of these jokers ever think of allowing the South Ossetians to vote on being Russian, Georgian or their own microstate? I mean if Tonga can have a vote in the UN...


...or am I being too rational again?







Post#156 at 08-12-2008 02:16 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
Did any of these jokers ever think of allowing the South Ossetians to vote on being Russian, Georgian or their own microstate? I mean if Tonga can have a vote in the UN...


...or am I being too rational again?
I think they did. Check out last paragraph from Wiki -

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ossetia

Ossetia (Ossetic: Ирыстон (Iryston); Russian: Осетия, (Osetiya); Georgian: ოსეთი (Oset'i)) is an ethnolinguistic region located on both sides of the Greater Caucasus Mountains, largely inhabited by the Ossetians, an Iranian people who speak the Ossetic language (an Eastern Iranian language, Indo-European group of languages). The Ossetic-speaking area is divided by the main Caucasus ridge. The northern portion constitutes the Republic of North Ossetia-Alania within the Russian Federation, while the southern portion is part of Georgia but is largely controlled by the secessionist Republic of South Ossetia, which is backed by Russia but internationally unrecognized.

In the last years of the Soviet Union, ethnic tensions between Ossetians and Georgians in Georgia's former Autonomous Oblast of South Ossetia (abolished in 1990) and between Ossetians and the Ingush in North Ossetia evolved into violent clashes that left several hundreds of dead and wounded and created a large tide of refugees on both sides of the border.

Although a Russian-mediated and OSCE-monitored ceasefire was implemented in South Ossetia in 1992, the Georgian-Ossetian conflict still remains unresolved even though a recent peace plan proposed by the government of Georgia promised the South Ossetians larger autonomy and pledged expanded international involvement in the political settlement of the conflict. Meanwhile, the South Ossetian secessionist authorities demand independence or unification with North Ossetia under the Russian Federation while the international community refuses to recognize South Ossetia as an independent country and considers the area part of Georgia.


On Sunday 12 November 2006, South Ossetians went to the polls to vote in a referendum regarding the region's independence from Georgia. The result was a "yes" to independence, with a turnout above 95% from those among the territory's 70,000 people who were eligible to vote.[1] There was also a vote in favour of a new term for South Ossetia's president, Eduard Kokoity.
also from wiki -


Makes the Balkans look like Wonder Bread with mayo. Good luck, Ruskies.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#157 at 08-12-2008 02:52 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Playing to the ill-informed dumb asses, again

My God, can we afford 4 more years of this dumbass macho sh8t?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...a_N.htm?csp=34

McCain says all Americans back Georgia in struggle
Check the photo. How many dipsh8ts can you identify?
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#158 at 08-12-2008 03:34 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
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[QUOTE=playwrite;242813]I think they did. Check out last paragraph from Wiki -

also from wiki -


[QUOTE]

So they did have an election and they voted not ot be a part of Georgia but rather to unify with North Carolina-oops-North Ossetia. :

Of course this begs the question, scince the international community had no intention of honoring the choice of the people, why the pretense of an election?
Makes the Balkans look like Wonder Bread with mayo. Good luck, Ruskies.
Oh, they've bought into a load of problems by doing this. But hey, they got what matters, militaristic pride.


Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
My God, can we afford 4 more years of this dumbass macho sh8t?
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politic...a_N.htm?csp=34
Check the photo. How many dipsh8ts can you identify?
Of course this is close enough to Bircher "reality" to justify a new cold war. The bipolar-love that double entrande : worldview group has been looking for an event like this to cling to for some time. The bad thing in terms of the November election is that now Obama has to be careful not to be outmachoed enough to give the "24/7 fear" appeal another victory.
Last edited by herbal tee; 08-12-2008 at 03:37 PM.







Post#159 at 08-12-2008 10:13 PM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
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Hmmmm.

Mountainous, broken landscape, dividing hostile ethnic, religious, and tribal groups. The area is a strategic gateway to resource rich regions. Oil is one of those resources. Multiple regional and global powers are vying for control, either directly or through surrogates.

Have we seen this movie before?







Post#160 at 08-13-2008 08:55 AM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
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Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
This is interesting. These Debka guys are pretty connected within the IDF.
Playwrite, I see you're not familiar with DEBKA; I've followed them for nearly a decade, through peace proposals and the Afghan and Iraqi wars. DEBKA is the Israeli intelligence circular file. Any rumors, anecdotes, or bull that the IDF, Mossad, or Shin Bet runs across and decides isn't worth keeping around finds its way onto DEBKA; if you find it there, it's worth more than even money it didn't happen.
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#161 at 08-13-2008 08:57 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Rooskie Romance

Open rebuke is better than secret love. Proverbs 27:5

What was in Pootie-Poot's mirrors of the soul?

Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Simon Jenkins
in the Progressive Guardian (UK)...
What is clear is that the Georgian president, Mikheil Saakashvili, is a poor advertisement for a Harvard education. He thought he could reoccupy South Ossetia and call Russia's bluff while Putin was away at the Olympics. He found it was not bluff. Putin was waiting for just such an invitation to humiliate a man he loathes, and to deter any other Russian border state from applying to join Nato, an organisation Russia had itself sought to join until it was rudely rebuffed.

Saakashvili thought he could call on the support of his neoconservative allies in Washington. Tbilisi is one of the few world cities in which Bush's picture is a pin-up and where an avenue is named after him. It turned out that such "support" was mere words. America is otherwise engaged in wars that bear a marked resemblance to those waged by Putin. It defended the Kurdish enclaves against Saddam Hussein. It sought regime change in Serbia and Afghanistan. As Putin's troops in South Ossetia were staging a passable imitation of the US 101st Airborne entering Iraq, Bush was studiously watching beach volleyball in Beijing.

The truth is that the world has no conceptual framework for adjudicating, let alone resolving, these timeless border conflicts. Where poverty is rife, it takes only a clan war and a ready supply of guns for hostilities to break out. The only question is how to stop them escalating.

Once such conflicts could be quarantined by the United Nations' requirement to respect national sovereignty. That has been shot to pieces by the liberal interventionism of George Bush and Tony Blair. The result has reinvigorated separatist movements across the world. Small-statism is not an evil in itself: witness its quadrennial festival at the Olympics. But the process of achieving it is usually bitter and bloody.

The west's eagerness to intervene in favour of partition, manifest in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Sudan, is more than meddling. It encouraged every oppressed people and province on earth to be "the mouse that roared", to think it could ensnare a great power in its cause.
-----
Contrast:Come Home Russia

Quote Originally Posted by Mr. John Laughland
Anyone who reads Solzhenitsyn’s astonishing essay from 1995, The Russian Question at the End of the Twentieth Century, will see that this caricature is nonsense. There is nothing irrational or mystical about Solzhenitsyn’s political positions at all – and he makes only the most glancing of references to the religion which, we all know, he does indeed hold dear. No, what emerges from this essay is an extremely simple and powerful political position which is easily translated into contemporary American English as “paleo-conservatism.”

Solzhenitsyn makes a withering attack on three hundred years of Russian history. Almost no Russian leader emerges without censure (he likes only the Empress Elizabeth [1741–1762] and Tsar Alexander III [1881–1894]); most of them are roundly condemned. One might contest the ferocity of Solzhenitsyn’s attacks but the ideological coherence of them is very clear: he is opposed to leaders who pursue foreign adventures, including empire-building, at the expense of the Russian population itself. This, he says, is what unites nearly all the Tsars since Peter the Great with the Bolshevik leaders.

Again and again, in a variety of historical contexts, Solzhenitsyn says that Russia should not have gone to the aid of this or that foreign cause, but should instead have concentrated on promoting stability and prosperity at home.

Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Alexsandr Solzhenitsyn
While we always sought to help the Bulgarians, the Serbs, the Montenegrins, we would have done better to think first of the Belorussians and Ukrainians: with the weighty hand of Empire we deprived them of cultural and spiritual development in their own traditions… the endless wars for Balkan Christians were a crime against the Russian people… The attempt to greater-Russify all of Russia proved damaging not only to the living national traits of all the other ethnicities in the Empire but was foremost detrimental to the greater-Russian nationality itself … The aims of a great Empire and the moral health of the people are incompatible … Holding on to a great Empire means to contribute to the extinction of our own people.







Post#162 at 08-13-2008 11:28 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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As one who "ducked and covered" under his school desk during the Cuban Missile Crisis, I am inherently quite suspicions of these Ruskies' moves into Georgia (I have to explain this carefully to my Leningrad-born wife who frequently picks wild mushrooms for us to eat - I have no idea of their toxic-or-not nature!). However, this thing still holds out the possibility that the Russians did go in only to put a final stop to the Georgians killing people in the two breakaway regions. Those people have voted 90-95% to not remain with Georgia and that has been the status quo for several years now. It looks like the Georgians started this latest fighting under the leadership of someone more bold than bright - sort of reminds you of one of our own leaders, no?

Its amazing how much McCain and the NeoCons are foaming at the mouth about all this, and even more amazing how the mass media is reporting this out in such a bias manner in support of the foaming. We Americans (generally), apparently remain as aggressively stupid as we were at the start of the Bush Administration. Very disappointing.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#163 at 08-13-2008 11:32 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by catfishncod View Post
Playwrite, I see you're not familiar with DEBKA; I've followed them for nearly a decade, through peace proposals and the Afghan and Iraqi wars. DEBKA is the Israeli intelligence circular file. Any rumors, anecdotes, or bull that the IDF, Mossad, or Shin Bet runs across and decides isn't worth keeping around finds its way onto DEBKA; if you find it there, it's worth more than even money it didn't happen.
yea, but they're still fun to quote. Sort of like the National Enquiry of the Intelligence community - and both sometimes get it right, just like a broken clock is correct at least twice every 24 hours!
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#164 at 08-13-2008 02:03 PM by Jeremiah175 [at North Tonawanda, Ny joined Dec 2002 #posts 323]
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Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Sounds like living space to me.
This whole affair is shades of the Reich.
Born 8.22.78







Post#165 at 08-13-2008 02:38 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
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Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
As one who "ducked and covered" under his school desk during the Cuban Missile Crisis, I am inherently quite suspicions of these Ruskies' moves into Georgia (I have to explain this carefully to my Leningrad-born wife who frequently picks wild mushrooms for us to eat - I have no idea of their toxic-or-not nature!). However, this thing still holds out the possibility that the Russians did go in only to put a final stop to the Georgians killing people in the two breakaway regions. Those people have voted 90-95% to not remain with Georgia and that has been the status quo for several years now. It looks like the Georgians started this latest fighting under the leadership of someone more bold than bright - sort of reminds you of one of our own leaders, no?
They voted 90-95% not to remain in Georgia

As for "starting the fighting" it's unclear who started this. Yes, the Georgian military was the first state military to attack, but the fact is that the fighting here had begun nearly two weeks ago with low-level sniper shoot-outs. The Georgian military reacted to fighting in it's own borders, and you're calling that hot headed?

Its amazing how much McCain and the NeoCons are foaming at the mouth about all this, and even more amazing how the mass media is reporting this out in such a bias manner in support of the foaming. We Americans (generally), apparently remain as aggressively stupid as we were at the start of the Bush Administration. Very disappointing.
It's not foaming at the mouth, it's a reasonable reaction to aggressive actions by a country we don't know if we can trust.

This is not a far cry from when the Nazis took Sudetenland, and we can't just act as if Russia can go around doing whatever they want without any regard for consequences.

Better to get mad at them now than to wait for them to do something even more dangerous a couple years down the line, and then be forced into action.







Post#166 at 08-13-2008 03:31 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
They voted 90-95% not to remain in Georgia
Is there a subtle difference between "with" and "in?" If so, I'm not catching it; please expand.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
As for "starting the fighting" it's unclear who started this. Yes, the Georgian military was the first state military to attack, but the fact is that the fighting here had begun nearly two weeks ago with low-level sniper shoot-outs. The Georgian military reacted to fighting in it's own borders, and you're calling that hot headed?
Actually, I didn't say "hot headed;" I said more "bold than bright." Given the result, I think I'm okay with that characterization. Also, "fighting in it's own borders" is way too simplistic - something I would expect from Fox Noise but a little surprised by it coming from you given your usually thoughtful posts.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
It's not foaming at the mouth, it's a reasonable reaction to aggressive actions by a country we don't know if we can trust.

This is not a far cry from when the Nazis took Sudetenland, and we can't just act as if Russia can go around doing whatever they want without any regard for consequences.

Better to get mad at them now than to wait for them to do something even more dangerous a couple years down the line, and then be forced into action.
I'll have to disagree with you here. There's a lot to sort out particularly in regard to how much death and destruction that Georgia rained down on Ossetia, particularly the regional capital, before the Russians acted. At least up until last night, most of the photos showed South Ossetians dead in the streets and apartment and government buildings blasted even though news agencies would add narrative or captions that it was Georgians. Today, we are getting the first photos from Georgia proper showing the destruction rained down by the Russian.

Also, much depends on what the Russians do from here. It should be put into the context that they clearly could have easily taken over the entire country of Georgia including the pipeline and nobody could have done anything realistically to stop them. If they pull back to even just the two breakaway provinces, it would be somewhat difficult to label them as the aggressors than as the protectors or at worst avenging angels at least from the standpoint of the peoples of those two regions. Under that scenario, anyone comparing this to Nazis in Sudetenland is going to look a wee bit foolish.

I'm not particularly sticking up for the Russians, but I am sick and tired of Americans thinking that they know what is really going on, who's evil and who's good, and what is best for everybody. Other than expressing dismay at the lost of life, maybe sometimes we should just keep our collective mouths shut and learn something about the rest of the world.

I would also like to add that while most of us have to be reminded about what happened in Beslan in N. Ossetia in 2004, I can tell you that every Russian remembers it as well as we remember 9/11. They are not in the mood for any body running around and blowing things up along their borders. I doubt if we were in the same situation that we would even be half as constrained as the Russians - hell, Iraq, 6000 miles from our borders, makes that pretty damn clear, don't you think?
Last edited by playwrite; 08-13-2008 at 03:41 PM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#167 at 08-13-2008 04:01 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
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Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Is there a subtle difference between "with" and "in?" If so, I'm not catching it; please expand.
o.O

weird, I wrote more than that, and it didn't show up. I wasn't disagreeing that Ossetia voted to leave. However, there's quite a bit of bullying involved here. In Abkhazia, the other Russian separatist movement, the move towards independence also coincided with ethnic cleansing. It's fair to say that there are plenty of Georgians in Ossetia who probably would have preferred to remain as a part of Georgia.

Actually, I didn't say "hot headed;" I said more "bold than bright."
Can you explain to me the difference between these two terms? Every time I've heard the term "hot-headed" it was a synonym for "more bold than bright."

Given the result, I think I'm okay with that characterization. Also, "fighting in it's own borders" is way too simplistic - something I would expect from Fox Noise but a little surprised coming from you given your usually thoughtful posts.
Is South Ossetia apart of Georgia according to every single government on the planet except for Russia?

The fact is that Ossetia is apart of Georgia. It is well within Georgia's right to use military troops to defend civilians within their own borders.

I'll have to disagree with you here. There's a lot to sort out particularly in regard to how much death and destruction that Georgia rained down on Ossetia, particularly the regional capital, before the Russians acted. At least up until last night, most of the photos showed South Ossetians dead in the streets and apartment and government buildings blasted even though news agencies would add narrative or captions that it was Georgians. Today, we are getting the first photos from Georgia proper showing the destruction rained down by the Russian.
The fact is that neither one "started it." It was a non-state conflict that was escalated by both parties. Those are the facts. Both sides are claiming the other one started it, and when that happens, I think we can be pretty certain that neither one shares all the blame.

Also, much depends on what the Russians do from here. It should be put into the context that they clearly could have easily taken over the entire country of Georgia including the pipeline and nobody could have done anything realistically to stop them. If they pull back to even just the two breakaway provinces, it would be somewhat difficult to label them as the aggressors than as the protectors or at worst avenging angels at least from the standpoint of the peoples of those two regions. Under that scenario, anyone comparing this to Nazis in Sudetenland is going to look a wee bit foolish.
The Nazis didn't take all of Czechoslovakia immediately after having been given Sudetenland either. They waited several months to do so. They took control of Sudetenland in October 1938. They invaded Czechoslovakia in the following March. We're less than a week into this conflict, no where near the amount of time needed to determine whether or not Russia's actions are expansionist or not.

For me, and others, to be highly suspicious of Russia's actions, and to make the comparison at a time like this, is not unreasonable. We have every right to be paranoid about Russia's intentions, because the last time this happened, we all know what followed. And we all know who ended up on the wrong side of history.

Besides that, Sudetenland was arguably just as much apart of Germany as these territories are apart of Russia. Do they have a right to join Russia? Sure. But that doesn't give Russia the right to invade and occupy the area unilaterally without any deference given to Georgia or the international community. The actions by Russia are just as immoral as they were when the Nazis took the same course of action seventy years ago.

You tell me how this is different from Sudetenland.

I'm not particularly sticking up for the Russians, but I am sick and tired of Americans thinking that they know what is really going on, who's evil and who's good, and what is best for everybody. Other than expressing dismay at the lost of life, maybe sometimes we should just keep our collective mouths shut and learn something about the rest of the world.
Unfortunately, that's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a disproportionate number of people deciding to take the Russian point of view, or the isolationist point of view, in any case, and completely dismiss Russia's actions here.

We can't just say, oh, Russia can do this, we have no problem with them doing this. Because we both know damn well that this situation, so far, is equivalent to the situation at Munich 1938. There is remarkable similarity. We cannot ignore history and take the same course that Chamberlain took and find ourselves victim to the same trickery that Hitler engaged in.







Post#168 at 08-13-2008 05:49 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Can you explain to me the difference between these two terms? Every time I've heard the term "hot-headed" it was a synonym for "more bold than bright."
Using the Georgian action as example, I would say Saakashvili took a calculate risk to attack S. Ossetia last Thursday night with Putin at the Olympics; it was a bold move that ultimately proved not to smart - therefore, "more bold than bright." I think it aligns with the difference between "premeditated murder" that is a calculated action versus a "passion-driven murder" where the notion of temporary insanity is operational. Sound viable?

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Is South Ossetia apart of Georgia according to every single government on the planet except for Russia?

The fact is that Ossetia is apart of Georgia. It is well within Georgia's right to use military troops to defend civilians within their own borders.


The fact is that neither one "started it." It was a non-state conflict that was escalated by both parties. Those are the facts. Both sides are claiming the other one started it, and when that happens, I think we can be pretty certain that neither one shares all the blame.
Certainly borders are a factor but doesn't that have to be weighed against the breaking of relative peace that results in the killing of hundreds if not thousands of civilians with some unresolved claims on Russian citizenship and then the fleeing of thousands across your border seeking protection. Further, an attack and killing of your peacekeeping force that was previously agreed to end previous fighting. This is what happened last Thursday into Friday before the Russians made their move. I have little doubt that we would tolerate such things on our border, particular if four years earlier one of our schools had been blown up in the region killing over 400 children.

I'm not asking anyone to take the Russian side; I'm only asking that people see this from other legitimate angles rather than only old Cold War blinders.


Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
The Nazis didn't take all of Czechoslovakia immediately after having been given Sudetenland either. They waited several months to do so. They took control of Sudetenland in October 1938. They invaded Czechoslovakia in the following March. We're less than a week into this conflict, no where near the amount of time needed to determine whether or not Russia's actions are expansionist or not.

For me, and others, to be highly suspicious of Russia's actions, and to make the comparison at a time like this, is not unreasonable. We have every right to be paranoid about Russia's intentions, because the last time this happened, we all know what followed. And we all know who ended up on the wrong side of history.

Besides that, Sudetenland was arguably just as much apart of Germany as these territories are apart of Russia. Do they have a right to join Russia? Sure. But that doesn't give Russia the right to invade and occupy the area unilaterally without any deference given to Georgia or the international community. The actions by Russia are just as immoral as they were when the Nazis took the same course of action seventy years ago.

You tell me how this is different from Sudetenland.
Again, much depends on what happens from here particularly what the Russians do. Sudetenland was a major step to WW2; do you really think that's the path we're on with Georgia? Unlike Sudetenland, this comparison could look really silly in retrospect.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Unfortunately, that's not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a disproportionate number of people deciding to take the Russian point of view, or the isolationist point of view, in any case, and completely dismiss Russia's actions here.

We can't just say, oh, Russia can do this, we have no problem with them doing this. Because we both know damn well that this situation, so far, is equivalent to the situation at Munich 1938. There is remarkable similarity. We cannot ignore history and take the same course that Chamberlain took and find ourselves victim to the same trickery that Hitler engaged in.
Wow, you must be watching/reading very different mass media sources than me. What I see is wall-to-wall analysis that stops just short (but not always) of suggesting Russians as inherent evil. You, yourself, have gone very very quickly to the Nazi comparisons. Do you have any references that suggests news coverage otherwise?
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Post#169 at 08-13-2008 06:26 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
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Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Using the Georgian action as example, I would say Saakashvili took a calculate risk to attack S. Ossetia last Thursday night with Putin at the Olympics; it was a bold move that ultimately proved not to smart - therefore, "more bold than bright." I think it aligns with the difference between "premeditated murder" that is a calculated action versus a "passion-driven murder" where the notion of temporary insanity is operational. Sound viable?
I guess.

Certainly borders are a factor but doesn't that have to be weighed against the breaking of relative peace that results in the killing of hundreds if not thousands of civilians with some unresolved claims on Russian citizenship and then the fleeing of thousands across your border seeking protection.
But that's *not* what happened. There was no peace. Fighting started a week before Georgia started bombarding Ossetia. They were reacting to an already existing conflict that was already proving deadly to their people.

Further, an attack and killing of your peacekeeping force that was previously agreed to end previous fighting. This is what happened last Thursday into Friday before the Russians made their move. I have little doubt that we would tolerate such things on our border, particular if four years earlier one of our schools had been blown up in the region killing over 400 children.
The peacekeeping force, as far as I understand it, was predominantly Russian, and it was hardly an unbiased mediator.

I'm not asking anyone to take the Russian side; I'm only asking that people see this from other legitimate angles rather than only old Cold War blinders.
Trust me, I don't have Cold War blinders. I don't remember the Cold War at all.

Again, much depends on what happens from here particularly what the Russians do. Sudetenland was a major step to WW2; do you really think that's the path we're on with Georgia? Unlike Sudetenland, this comparison could look really silly in retrospect.
Did the people of Europe in 1938 realize that it was a step towards WWII? Do we know if this isn't?

It's all obviously up in the air. I don't know what is going to happen. All I know is what has happened. And what we have is a remarkably similar situation, and it would be best to take into account the lessons of the last time this happened, rather than insist that the 70-year separation of these events severs the connection.

If we do not do something to signal to Russia that attempting to regain control of the former Soviet Republics will not be tolerated, they will do it in the future.

If you give a mouse a cookie, he'll ask for a glass of milk.

Wow, you must be watching/reading very different mass media sources than me. What I see is wall-to-wall analysis that stops just short (but not always) of suggesting Russians as inherent evil. You, yourself, have gone very very quickly to the Nazi comparisons. Do you have any references that suggests news coverage otherwise?
I'm not really talking about the media, I'm talking about people I've discussed this with. The media invariably takes a sensationalist point of view on everything anyway. They were probably hyping up Nazi Germany in the 1930s too, even though the sentiment in America and Britain was still resolutely isolationist until 1939.

What I'm seeing right now, amongst most people, regardless of generation, is timidness towards the dangers of the world. We can't allow ourselves, just because of the mistakes of the Iraq war, to turn inward. We can't just say to the world that we won't fight for anything because we picked one bad fight. This was the folly of the west in the interwar period, and we shouldn't let it be again.







Post#170 at 08-13-2008 06:51 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
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Okay, seriously, A more suitable analagy to the russian action in georgia would be manchuria 1931 rather than sudetenland 1938. The sudetenland by itself was unimportant except as a place to stop german aggression. However manchuria contained several important railroads and had a history of being squabbled over by Japan, Russia and China. Much like there are important oil pipelines that run through georgia and several planned pipelines that the US and EU had hoped to set up there. The real russian objective in this invasion is to deny western access to georgia and it's strategic location regarding the middle east.







Post#171 at 08-13-2008 07:53 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
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Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
I guess.



But that's *not* what happened. There was no peace. Fighting started a week before Georgia started bombarding Ossetia. They were reacting to an already existing conflict that was already proving deadly to their people.
Do you have a link that clearly shows the increase activity a week prior to last Thursday? In particular, do you have anything actually dated prior to last Thursday? Also, if it could be put into the context of the level of conflict since the more generalized conflict back in the ealry 90s. I'm not trying to be a pain in the rear; I really am still forming an opinion here and that would be some key information.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
The peacekeeping force, as far as I understand it, was predominantly Russian, and it was hardly an unbiased mediator.
Yea, I think that's true but I think that was a condition to ending the hostilities back in the early '90s.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Trust me, I don't have Cold War blinders. I don't remember the Cold War at all.
Yea, but its obvious that you've heard about it. Reminds me about the old question of what's more scary - the bear you can see or the one hiding behind the tree.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Did the people of Europe in 1938 realize that it was a step towards WWII? Do we know if this isn't?

It's all obviously up in the air. I don't know what is going to happen. All I know is what has happened. And what we have is a remarkably similar situation, and it would be best to take into account the lessons of the last time this happened, rather than insist that the 70-year separation of these events severs the connection.
yeah, its scary, but if you really thought about it, you should be more afraid of the risks from driving your car.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
If we do not do something to signal to Russia that attempting to regain control of the former Soviet Republics will not be tolerated, they will do it in the future.
Maybe

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
If you give a mouse a cookie, he'll ask for a glass of milk.
I was wondering why that mouse keeps hanging around. Apparently, he didn't like that martini I offered him.
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Post#172 at 08-13-2008 08:01 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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I can not BELIEVE that Dubya has decided to send troops to an area where Russia is on the other side. Not while we are already tied down on two fronts. Does he expect to pull the bear's tail and not get bitten?
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

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Post#173 at 08-13-2008 08:38 PM by Jeremiah175 [at North Tonawanda, Ny joined Dec 2002 #posts 323]
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Being an ally

Either we are Georgia's ally or we are not. Friends and allies are proven by action.

JVS
Born 8.22.78







Post#174 at 08-13-2008 08:44 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Rule #1: Do not recognize territorial changes resulting from aggression.

Rule #2: Do not recognize puppet states established through aggression.
The greatest evil is not now done in those sordid "dens of crime" (or) even in concentration camps and labour camps. In those we see its final result. But it is conceived and ordered... in clean, carpeted, warmed and well-lighted offices, by (those) who do not need to raise their voices. Hence, naturally enough, my symbol for Hell is something like the bureaucracy of a police state or the office of a thoroughly nasty business concern."


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Post#175 at 08-13-2008 08:47 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
I can not BELIEVE that Dubya has decided to send troops to an area where Russia is on the other side. Not while we are already tied down on two fronts. Does he expect to pull the bear's tail and not get bitten?
When did that happen?

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite
Do you have a link that clearly shows the increase activity a week prior to last Thursday? In particular, do you have anything actually dated prior to last Thursday? Also, if it could be put into the context of the level of conflict since the more generalized conflict back in the ealry 90s. I'm not trying to be a pain in the rear; I really am still forming an opinion here and that would be some key information.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timelin...th_Ossetia_war

Beginning late on August 1, intense fighting began between Georgian troops and paramilitary soldiers of South Ossetia, causing the deaths of six people and injuring twenty-one others. Each side accused the other of commencing the fighting. On 3 August, the Russian government allowed South Ossetians to begin evacuation into Russia, which resulted in twenty bus-loads of refugees leaving the region on the first day.[1]

On August 4, it has been rumored that five battalions of the Russian 58th Army were moved to the vicinity of Roki Tunnel that links South Ossetia with North Ossetia.[2] However, later the US defense official said that there was no obvious buildup of Russian forces along the border that signaled an intention to invade. [3] Also Izvestia reported that Russian peacekeepers conducted exercises in South Ossetia at the beginning of August and came under direct fire during the Georgian attack.[4]

Sporadic fighting continued throughout the next several days. On 6 August, Georgia said it had lost an APC and that three Georgian soldiers had been wounded.[5] Four people were killed that night and Georgia resumed shelling at daybreak. Residents once again began evacuating areas of South Ossetia and Georgia moved tanks, artillery, and troops to the border.[6] The Georgian Interior Ministry reported that as many as ten Georgian soldiers had died in the clashes throughout 7 August.[7][8]

Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili, who had earlier alleged that sniper warfare was taking place, [9] later ordered a unilateral ceasefire. Saakashvili called for talks "in any format", reaffirmed the long-standing offer of full autonomy for South Ossetia, proposed that Russia should guarantee that solution, offered a general amnesty, and pleaded for international intercession to stop the hostilities.[10] Georgia reiterated that it was prepared to engage in direct talks with the de facto government of South Ossetia without any preconditions.
Pay close attention to that last paragraph.

And all of this occurred prior to the main Georgian attack that provoked the Russians to invade.

Yea, but its obvious that you've heard about it.
Heard about it, but I don't look at the world from a Cold War perspective. My entire life I have been surrounded with the belief that essentially, the US has no enemies except for a few rogue states.

I don't think Russia is the ultimate enemy. I do, however, see this as a threat. A country that has a questionable level of democracy has invaded an at least nominally democratic country which has made recent overtures to be our ally.

It's hard to construe that as anything other than a threat.

yeah, its scary, but if you really thought about it, you should be more afraid of the risks from driving your car.
Can't I be afraid of both?

Maybe
Let's not take chances on people's lives and their freedom.
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