Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Crazy Russia - Page 8







Post#176 at 08-13-2008 09:19 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
08-13-2008, 09:19 PM #176
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86 View Post
Okay, seriously, A more suitable analagy to the russian action in georgia would be manchuria 1931 rather than sudetenland 1938. The sudetenland by itself was unimportant except as a place to stop german aggression. However manchuria contained several important railroads and had a history of being squabbled over by Japan, Russia and China. Much like there are important oil pipelines that run through georgia and several planned pipelines that the US and EU had hoped to set up there. The real russian objective in this invasion is to deny western access to georgia and it's strategic location regarding the middle east.
Excellent comparison, worthy of the Pairing Game thread.

And 77 years off...perfect timing.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#177 at 08-13-2008 09:19 PM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
---
08-13-2008, 09:19 PM #177
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us)
Posts
5,439

I think I should start drinking. This conflict is showing serious signs of 1914.







Post#178 at 08-13-2008 09:23 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
---
08-13-2008, 09:23 PM #178
Join Date
Jun 2007
Location
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Posts
1,741

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
I think I should start drinking. This conflict is showing serious signs of 1914.
Yeah, that's what I thought when I first heard about it. Some idiots in random country start shooting, and through some chain of entangled alliances it starts a world war.







Post#179 at 08-13-2008 09:37 PM by 1990 [at Savannah, GA joined Sep 2006 #posts 1,450]
---
08-13-2008, 09:37 PM #179
Join Date
Sep 2006
Location
Savannah, GA
Posts
1,450

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
I think I should start drinking. This conflict is showing serious signs of 1914.
But better, because this time it ain't no early 3T.
My Turning-based Map of the World

Thanks, John Xenakis, for hosting my map

Myers-Briggs Type: INFJ







Post#180 at 08-13-2008 11:47 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
---
08-13-2008, 11:47 PM #180
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Albuquerque, NM
Posts
8,876

Silifi asks when Dubya decided to send in troops. I heard it on tonight's suppertime news (NBC), but for confirmation, from Xenakis, who does follow the news closely -

America's involvement has already begun, as indicated by a Wednesday afternoon statement by President Bush, that included the following:

"I've also directed Secretary of Defense Bob Gates to begin a humanitarian mission to the people of Georgia, headed by the United States military. This mission will be vigorous and ongoing. A U.S. C-17 aircraft with humanitarian supplies is on its way. And in the days ahead we will use U.S. aircraft, as well as naval forces, to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies."
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.







Post#181 at 08-13-2008 11:58 PM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
---
08-13-2008, 11:58 PM #181
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us)
Posts
5,439

Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Silifi asks when Dubya decided to send in troops. I heard it on tonight's suppertime news (NBC), but for confirmation, from Xenakis, who does follow the news closely -

America's involvement has already begun, as indicated by a Wednesday afternoon statement by President Bush, that included the following:

"I've also directed Secretary of Defense Bob Gates to begin a humanitarian mission to the people of Georgia, headed by the United States military. This mission will be vigorous and ongoing. A U.S. C-17 aircraft with humanitarian supplies is on its way. And in the days ahead we will use U.S. aircraft, as well as naval forces, to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies."
God help us. I've been watching both the Georgian and Russian ADA claims (assuming the Voskaya PVO Strany does not come out to play).







Post#182 at 08-14-2008 12:09 AM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
---
08-14-2008, 12:09 AM #182
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us)
Posts
5,439

Where's Justin?

Probably digging a hole.







Post#183 at 08-14-2008 12:26 AM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
---
08-14-2008, 12:26 AM #183
Join Date
Jul 2006
Location
Upstate New York
Posts
1,285

Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Silifi asks when Dubya decided to send in troops. I heard it on tonight's suppertime news (NBC), but for confirmation, from Xenakis, who does follow the news closely -

America's involvement has already begun, as indicated by a Wednesday afternoon statement by President Bush, that included the following:

"I've also directed Secretary of Defense Bob Gates to begin a humanitarian mission to the people of Georgia, headed by the United States military. This mission will be vigorous and ongoing. A U.S. C-17 aircraft with humanitarian supplies is on its way. And in the days ahead we will use U.S. aircraft, as well as naval forces, to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies."
I've seen Xenakis' updates and its obvious he has serious cold war blinders in regard to international relations. His ideological hatred of russia and china is obvious and is clearly linked to a worldview that froze prior to 1972. His relative relegation of mideast conflict on his site is probably due to the fact that in the 1960's the middle east was still mostly moderate. His view that iran is 2T is likely due to the fact that when he was growing up iran was still a US ally, and has not adjusted to centrality of islamism and the arab-israeli conflict as the primary world war threat to the west.







Post#184 at 08-14-2008 08:46 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
---
08-14-2008, 08:46 AM #184
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
'49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains
Posts
7,835

Cool It's not 4T Mittel Europa in 1938

Pootie-Poot is channelling Mr. Woodrow Wilson in Mexico circa 1913-1917 >>>-----> Tampico, Vera Cruz, Pancho Villa.

We be 3T:

Foreign arms in a neighboring land (French & Commercial Republican in Georgia) (German, cough {Remington}, cough in Mexico).

Disrespect for Russians in Ossetia/ Commercial Republicans in Gulf and Desert Mexico.

Energy supply/energy supply.

Romantic Idealism on the part of all concerned.

You're Welcome.







Post#185 at 08-14-2008 08:53 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
---
08-14-2008, 08:53 AM #185
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
'49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains
Posts
7,835

Thumbs up Time & Place

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
I think I should start drinking. This conflict is showing serious signs of 1914.
B-I-N-G-O! as to when, you're off by a Hemisphere, but close enough for Government Work!







Post#186 at 08-14-2008 09:27 AM by '58 Flat [at Hardhat From Central Jersey joined Jul 2001 #posts 3,300]
---
08-14-2008, 09:27 AM #186
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Hardhat From Central Jersey
Posts
3,300

Haven't we seen this movie before, so to speak?

Indeed we have - in 1971, when refugees from East Bengal, then coterminous with East Pakistan, poured over the border into the Indian state of West Bengal (the deplorable conditions accompanying their displacement prompting a cadre of musicians headed by George Harrison to organize the iconic "Concert For Bangla Desh," which was sort of like Woodstock Meets We Are The World).

Well India wasn't too happy with the situation, to say the least, and they responded by openly aiding the rebels of East Bengal, which secured its independence, and became Bangladesh (spelled as one word, not two, as was the aforementioned concert held in its honor).

Funny how I don't recall the Nixon White House getting too hot under the collar over India's actions.

And how's this for a macabre coincidence: The Bengali conflict came to its conclusion just as Isaac Hayes' Theme From Shaft was climbing to the top of the charts. Hayes, of course, died during the present fighting.
Last edited by '58 Flat; 08-14-2008 at 09:44 AM.
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.

Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!







Post#187 at 08-14-2008 10:07 AM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
---
08-14-2008, 10:07 AM #187
Join Date
Dec 2005
Posts
7,116

Perspective

This is the place that this is really all about.

Everything which transpired over the last week has been about one issue, and one issue only: the Ukraine. Russia will never let the Ukraine join NATO. Not now, especially as they have the power and the means and quite clearly the will to thwart its accession.
Thi isn't global thermonuclear war.

How about a nice game of chess? :







Post#188 at 08-14-2008 11:46 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
08-14-2008, 11:46 AM #188
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

"Chronology is the key"

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
When did that happen?



http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timelin...th_Ossetia_war



Pay close attention to that last paragraph.

And all of this occurred prior to the main Georgian attack that provoked the Russians to invade.
Thanks, that is helpful.

Here is what seems to be a fairly reasonable (and very fascinating on a number of levels!) Russian perspective on those early events (sort of amusingly weird that it was provoked by a right wingnut blog associating the Russians with Intelligent Design nuttiness - God, the world is weird! )

http://www.russiablog.org/2008/08/wa...ng_ossetia.php

It includes a photo of the S. Ossetians boarding those buses to flee to Russia that the Wiki article refers to.

Also, it includes that first picture that I remember seeing from last Thursday of Georgian rocket fire into the capital Tskhinvali (admittedly, that has left a lasting impression on me) -

which seems more than just a little bit of escalation over sniper fire, no?

Also, particularly note the blogger's reaction to Saakashvili's TV appearances on Aug 8 and Aug 9. Tie that 24 hour period with the killing of Russian peacekeepers and I can see how the Ruskie might have gotten a little pissed - in similiar circumstances, I think the US would have nuked somebody within about 10 minutes.

Also, interesting is this tie-in to Shamil Basayev and the first Chechen War. Couple that with the calender rapidly coming up on the fourth anniversary of Beslan massacre and one might get the sense that the Ruskies are in no mood for anybody screwing around on their southwestern borders.

We Americans tend to gravitate rapidly to those that look like the underdog, but at some point, we occassionally show our tendency toward fairness.

Mr. Charles Johnson, of the influential conservative weblog Little Green Footballs, has noticed our site:

“In addition to promoting the anti-science hoax of ‘intelligent design,’ the Discovery Institute runs a pro-Russian site called ‘Russia Blog,’ and today they come out in favour of Russia’s brutal assault on the breakaway republic of South Ossetia”.

As a contributor to this blog, I want to answer Mr. Johnson’s guilt-by-association allegation. I personally have no use for "intelligent design" or other claims against evolution, but one would search Russia Blog's website in vain for any mention of this topic. And Mr. Johnson's characterization of “Russia’s brutal assault on the breakaway republic of South Ossetia” gets it exactly backwards. Chronology is the key: it tells you here, as it so often does (in evolution as well) what is actually happening.

As to the long lead up to this latest attack by Georgia on an area it considers part of its territory, I refer you to this from the Times of London. While it misses out the second invasion by Georgia of South Ossetia in 2006 (small and very short-lived but remembered there) and the first independence referendum of 1992, it is reasonably fair.

As to the most recent events, here is the actual chronology.

On Thursday August 7, 2008, President Saakashvili of Georgia went on TV and addressed his country. There had been outbreaks of shooting in South Ossetia for some weeks. Who started it this time? Who knows? Each side always points to something earlier and it all goes back to the early 1990s. Saakashvili declared a ceasefire, announced that he was sending someone to negotiate and then said this about Russia: “I have been proposing and I am proposing Russia act as a guarantor of South Ossetian autonomy within Georgia.” And “Georgia is a natural ally of Russia”. Saakashvili expressed his “love” for Ossetians. (here is a Georgian source for the text.)

On Friday, about 24 hours later, Saakashvili announced that Georgian forces controlled most of South Ossetia and had “liberated” most of the capital Tskhinvali. (And here is a Georgian source for that). As justification for this sudden change, Saakashvili claimed the ceasefire had not held and that Russian aircraft had attacked Georgian troops. But, obviously, the Georgian invasion had been long prepared – and was probably underway while he was making the first speech.

Two rather different statements in a mere 24 hours. This is what happened in the meantime: at about midnight Thursday/Friday local time Georgian forces opened fire, See this BBC film. In case you don’t know what you are watching, they are multiple-launch rocket systems, most likely what NATO designated BM-21s. They are extremely inaccurate and, by all reports, were fired into the town of Tskhinvali. According to the South Ossetia authorities, nearly one and a half thousand people, mostly civilians, have been killed. A strange way for Saakashvili to embody this moving thought from his first speech:

“I love Ossetians as a President and as a ordinary citizen of this country. I admire and respect Ossetian history and culture. Every ethnic Ossetian has been an inseparable part of Georgian history for centuries. We are proud of you and our unity. Georgia is strong for its diversity. Georgia has never been and will never be a mono-ethnic country. Georgia belongs to all of us regardless of our ethnicity. Let’s take care of our country together. Let’s together avoid the violence. Let’s work together for a better future. Let’s forget everything negative that has happened in the past and let’s together think about our common future.”

Among those killed in the initial assault were Russian peacekeeping troops who were there as part of an agreement Tbilisi signed after the first war in the 1990s and recognized by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), by the way. (Here is a background essay on the OSCE deployment from the U.S. State Department). Then Russian reinforcements entered South Ossetia – to, it should be clear, the great relief and jubiliation of the population, several thousand of whom have fled across the Russian border into neighboring North Ossetia.

Moscow has three motives for striking back hard: the last time Georgia went adventuring into Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a lot of people from the Russian Caucasus went down there to fight, including Shamil Basayev, who led a group of Chechens. Basayev later came back to Russia to start trouble and the first Chechen War began. Mr Johnson knows who Shamil Basayev was. Next, Russia is legally obligated to try and keep the peace in South Ossetia. Finally, a number of Russian soldiers were killed - according to Moscow, directly targeted by the Georgians who were serving alongside them in the South Ossetia peacekeeping force. Whether or not that proves to be true, there is no doubt that several Russian peacekeeping troops were killed by Georgian artillery fire.

Russian forces began entering South Ossetia on Friday evening and here we are today.

Here, by the way, is the official Russian mission statement from the Interfax News service

MOSCOW. Aug 8 (Interfax) - Formations of the 58th army in the outskirts of Tskhinvali have suppressed the Georgian firing positions that shelled the city and the positions of Russian peacekeepers, assistant to the commander of the Russian Ground Forces Col. Igor Konashenkov said to Interfax-AVN on Friday. “The firing positions of Georgian troops that had shelled the city of Tskhinvali and the positions of peacekeeping forces were suppressed by the ordnance and tanks of formations of the 58th army stationed in the outskirts of the South Ossetian capital,” he said. He said the Georgian side had used guns of the 122-mm and 155-mm calibers. “The Georgian troops that entered South Ossetia are within the range of the firepower of the 58th army units. In the future any shooting in the responsibility zone of Russian peacekeepers will be stifled,” Konashenkov said.

Two easy observations give the lie to Saakashvili’s second speech. He claimed that Russian aircraft were attacking Georgian soldiers on Thursday – why then did the Georgian forces not space themselves out? That is the first thing soldiers do in such circumstances: they maintain a 50 meter spacing so that one bomb is not likely to take out more than one vehicle. The second easily observed fact is that the Russians had to move reinforcements into South Ossetia: if, as Saakashvili claimed, they started it, why weren’t they there already?

The chronology makes what happened very clear: very shortly after President Saakashvili appealed for peace, Georgian forces opened indiscriminate fire on people he regards as Georgia’s citizens. The Russian reinforcements entered nearly 24 hours later. Now Georgia is declaring that it is pulling out: the question is what on earth did Saakashvili think he was doing or would accomplish?

There is a certain resemblance to Kosovo here but Russia is not cast in the role of Serbia.

The truth is that the U.S. mainstream media is no better at covering Russia than it is at covering the war in Iraq, Israel-Palestine, President George W. Bush, or faked Texas Air National Guard memos. The same lazy imitation of existing memes operates here too, and Mr. Johnson should know better from his experience than to fall for them.


Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and retired in 2008 after 30 years as an analyst for the Canadian government. He was Political Counsellor for the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996. He has been a frequent speaker at the Wilton Park conferences in the UK.
I would just note something about the InterFax statement from the Russians - "The firing positions of Georgian troops that had shelled the city of Tskhinvali and the positions of peacekeeping forces were suppressed." Over the last 24 hours, we have heard various breathless reporters telling us how the Russians have broke the ceasefire by capturing the Georgian town of Gori which is only 35 miles from the Georgian capital of T'bilisi. And we have heard that several explosions have occurred in Gori sounding like mortar rounds; later, it turned out to be Russians blowing up left behind Georgian artillery guns and rocket launchers. Let's put aside that proper withdrawal of a military force from the field (perhaps the most vulnerable movement) involves reducing the enemy's capacity to shoot at you. Let's just consider that Gori is 15 miles from the towns within S. Ossetia that were shelled by the Georgians last Thursday and Friday - it would seem that the latest hysteria, caused by the Russians not fleeing back across the border but instead taking the time to blow up the war machines that started this mess, is a little overwrought, no?
Last edited by playwrite; 08-14-2008 at 12:13 PM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#189 at 08-14-2008 12:54 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
---
08-14-2008, 12:54 PM #189
Join Date
Jun 2007
Location
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Posts
1,741

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Thanks, that is helpful.

Here is what seems to be a fairly reasonable (and very fascinating on a number of levels!) Russian perspective on those early events (sort of amusingly weird that it was provoked by a right wingnut blog associating the Russians with Intelligent Design nuttiness - God, the world is weird! )

http://www.russiablog.org/2008/08/wa...ng_ossetia.php

It includes a photo of the S. Ossetians boarding those buses to flee to Russia that the Wiki article refers to.

Also, it includes that first picture that I remember seeing from last Thursday of Georgian rocket fire into the capital Tskhinvali (admittedly, that has left a lasting impression on me) -

which seems more than just a little bit of escalation over sniper fire, no?

Also, particularly note the blogger's reaction to Saakashvili's TV appearances on Aug 8 and Aug 9. Tie that 24 hour period with the killing of Russian peacekeepers and I can see how the Ruskie might have gotten a little pissed - in similiar circumstances, I think the US would have nuked somebody within about 10 minutes.
See, now you're using a double standard in Russia's favor. Russia's actions in escalating the fighting are completely reasonable, but Georgia's aren't?

Come on. You know better than that. Georgia's troops were getting killed in South Ossetia prior to their attack. They were provoked into action.

We Americans tend to gravitate rapidly to those that look like the underdog, but at some point, we occassionally show our tendency toward fairness.
Because the Russians pushing around little countries is "fair"?

I would just note something about the InterFax statement from the Russians - "The firing positions of Georgian troops that had shelled the city of Tskhinvali and the positions of peacekeeping forces were suppressed." Over the last 24 hours, we have heard various breathless reporters telling us how the Russians have broke the ceasefire by capturing the Georgian town of Gori which is only 35 miles from the Georgian capital of T'bilisi. And we have heard that several explosions have occurred in Gori sounding like mortar rounds; later, it turned out to be Russians blowing up left behind Georgian artillery guns and rocket launchers. Let's put aside that proper withdrawal of a military force from the field (perhaps the most vulnerable movement) involves reducing the enemy's capacity to shoot at you. Let's just consider that Gori is 15 miles from the towns within S. Ossetia that were shelled by the Georgians last Thursday and Friday - it would seem that the latest hysteria, caused by the Russians not fleeing back across the border but instead taking the time to blow up the war machines that started this mess, is a little overwrought, no?
If there's a ceasefire, that means that you, well, CEASE FIRING. Russia is clearly violating the ceasefire.







Post#190 at 08-14-2008 01:08 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
---
08-14-2008, 01:08 PM #190
Join Date
Jun 2007
Location
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Posts
1,741

Quote Originally Posted by The Grey Badger View Post
Silifi asks when Dubya decided to send in troops. I heard it on tonight's suppertime news (NBC), but for confirmation, from Xenakis, who does follow the news closely -

America's involvement has already begun, as indicated by a Wednesday afternoon statement by President Bush, that included the following:

"I've also directed Secretary of Defense Bob Gates to begin a humanitarian mission to the people of Georgia, headed by the United States military. This mission will be vigorous and ongoing. A U.S. C-17 aircraft with humanitarian supplies is on its way. And in the days ahead we will use U.S. aircraft, as well as naval forces, to deliver humanitarian and medical supplies."
Wait, wait, wait. That's not military intervention. That's humanitarian intervention through the easiest means necessary, which is the military. There are no indications that we're using the military to engage in military operations, just delivering humanitarian supplies by using our military personnel and equipment.

I don't care what you think about the conflict itself, the fact is that civilians in Georgia are getting killed and they are being displaced. It would be cold and heartless for us not to try and help them.







Post#191 at 08-14-2008 02:02 PM by Cynic Hero '86 [at Upstate New York joined Jul 2006 #posts 1,285]
---
08-14-2008, 02:02 PM #191
Join Date
Jul 2006
Location
Upstate New York
Posts
1,285

I oppose military intervention, we should not be sticking our necks out for ideological reasons. If we really need to send a message to russia, tear up the START and SORT treaties and build up the military back to cold war levels, as it is obvious that putin's word cannot not be regarded as reliable.







Post#192 at 08-14-2008 02:20 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
08-14-2008, 02:20 PM #192
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
See, now you're using a double standard in Russia's favor. Russia's actions in escalating the fighting are completely reasonable, but Georgia's aren't?

Come on. You know better than that. Georgia's troops were getting killed in South Ossetia prior to their attack. They were provoked into action.
I must be missing something here. I really don't see that in the part of the Wiki timeline you provided up to the Thurs night shelling by the Georgians. From that timeline it looks like all the Russians were doing was accepting refugees while Saakashvili was "proposing Russia act as a guarantor of South Ossetian autonomy within Georgia” and stating that “Georgia is a natural ally of Russia”. That speech came just hours before Georgia started the artillery and rocket attack on the city. Also, just hours before the Russian peacekeepers were killed - and if the rumor is proven true that those peacekeepers were killed in their bunks by their Georgian counterparts, well, that's a little hard to stomach, no?

But maybe you have some better info to offer about those pre- Aug 7th days. The earliest Wiki references are from Russian newspapers and very much support the Russian version of things. Wiki doesn't get a Georgian version of anything until the morning of 8/7 -
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18924

Georgia Says its Armored Vehicle Blown Up

Civil Georgia, Tbilisi / 7 Aug.'08 / 15:42

Three Georgian servicemen were injured after South Ossetian militiamen blew up an infantry combat vehicle belonging to the Georgian peacekeeping battalion, the Interior Ministry said on August 7.

“The incident occurred in the village of Avnevi,” Shota Utiashvili, a Georgian Interior Ministry spokesman, told Civil.Ge. “The Georgian infantry combat vehicle was hit by a rocket propelled grenade fired by the South Ossetian separatists.”

The South Ossetian secessionist authorities claimed on August 6 that their militias had blown up a Georgian armored personnel carrier, but the report was denied both by Tbilisi and the Russian peacekeeping forces.

Related
Georgia Denies APC Destroyed by S.Ossetian Militia
Am I the only one who finds it odd that the Russian papers are nearly hysterical in their reporting of things going bad - like maybe it was a surprise? While the early Georgian reporting seems rather cool keep-the-lid-on and not draw too much attention - like maybe don't spoil the nice surprise coming?

Also, kind of hard to believe Putin would have danced off to Beijing if this was all some big Bear plan; he sure ran back to the action fast enough!

But if you got something that's making you so assure of early Russian manipulation, I'd sure like to see it.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Because the Russians pushing around little countries is "fair"?
No, but neither is it fair for the Georgians to launch artillery shells and rockets at a tiny region's capital city and perhaps killed as many as 1400 civilians, and again, possible having slit the throats of their Russian peacekeeping counterparts sleeping in adjacent bunks.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
If there's a ceasefire, that means that you, well, CEASE FIRING. Russia is clearly violating the ceasefire.
Apparently, there was a pretty intense standoff between Russian troops and Gori police on the outskirts of the town, but it ended without a shot when the police fled Russian tanks that speeded to the area. We've heard of explosions that turned out to be Russians demolishing left-behind Georgian artillery guns and rocket launchers. Have you links reporting actual combat since the ceasefire?

Also, I believe Medvedev has pointed out that the cease-fire agreement he signed included the Russians having the flexibility to deal with any hostile situation they might encounter; I think he would include the disarming of Georgian military capacity within range of either his troops or the two breakaway republics. You might not think that's fair but, when put in the context that the Russians could have obviously and easily taken over the entire country by now without anyone being able to do a damn thing about it, well, at the very least, it shouldn't be unexpected.

I'm afraid when this is all settles down, the US is not only going to look ineffectual but pretty damn silly. My only consoling is that at least McCain isn't in charge - apparently he makes Bush look as bright as John Foster Dulles.

And borrowed from today's DailyKos, I hope this applies -

"I am a firm believer in the people. If given the truth, they can be depended upon to meet any national crisis. The great point is to bring them the real facts, and beer."
---Abraham Lincoln
Last edited by playwrite; 08-14-2008 at 02:32 PM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#193 at 08-14-2008 05:23 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
---
08-14-2008, 05:23 PM #193
Join Date
Jun 2007
Location
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Posts
1,741

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
I must be missing something here. I really don't see that in the part of the Wiki timeline you provided up to the Thurs night shelling by the Georgians. From that timeline it looks like all the Russians were doing was accepting refugees while Saakashvili was "proposing Russia act as a guarantor of South Ossetian autonomy within Georgia” and stating that “Georgia is a natural ally of Russia”. That speech came just hours before Georgia started the artillery and rocket attack on the city. Also, just hours before the Russian peacekeepers were killed - and if the rumor is proven true that those peacekeepers were killed in their bunks by their Georgian counterparts, well, that's a little hard to stomach, no?
But maybe you have some better info to offer about those pre- Aug 7th days. The earliest Wiki references are from Russian newspapers and very much support the Russian version of things. Wiki doesn't get a Georgian version of anything until the morning of 8/7 -
http://www.civil.ge/eng/article.php?id=18924
Uh...

"Beginning late on August 1, intense fighting began between Georgian troops and paramilitary soldiers of South Ossetia, causing the deaths of six people and injuring 21 others. Each side accused the other of commencing the fighting"

We don't know who started it. And then:

"According to a statement from Georgia's Interior Ministry, during the night and early morning, South Ossetian separatist artillery shelled the Georgian-populated villages of Avnevi, Eredvi, Nuli and some others.[12] These reports also stated that the police station in Kurta, seat of the Sanakoyev administration, was hit by artillery fire. Georgia reported that civilians had begun fleeing these villages.[10] However, South Ossetia denied attacking the villages."

That was before the Georgian offensive.

Am I the only one who finds it odd that the Russian papers are nearly hysterical in their reporting of things going bad - like maybe it was a surprise? While the early Georgian reporting seems rather cool keep-the-lid-on and not draw too much attention - like maybe don't spoil the nice surprise coming?
Russian papers? You mean the state-owned media that has a vested interest in making this out to be solely Georgia's fault?

Georgia's media isn't exactly the freest in the world, but it's much better than the Russian media.

Also, kind of hard to believe Putin would have danced off to Beijing if this was all some big Bear plan; he sure ran back to the action fast enough!
So?

But if you got something that's making you so assure of early Russian manipulation, I'd sure like to see it.
Uh, I didn't *claim* early Russian manipulation. I don't know if Russia did this in the heat of the moment or if they had planned it for years. The entire thing is opportunistic at best, though.

No, but neither is it fair for the Georgians to launch artillery shells and rockets at a tiny region's capital city and perhaps killed as many as 1400 civilians, and again, possible having slit the throats of their Russian peacekeeping counterparts sleeping in adjacent bunks.
And what are you basing this off of? Rumors? There are rumors on BOTH sides that atrocities are taking place. You're choosing to believe only Russia's side of the story, and completely ignoring the fact that Russians have committed the same atrocities.

Apparently, there was a pretty intense standoff between Russian troops and Gori police on the outskirts of the town, but it ended without a shot when the police fled Russian tanks that speeded to the area. We've heard of explosions that turned out to be Russians demolishing left-behind Georgian artillery guns and rocket launchers. Have you links reporting actual combat since the ceasefire?
Demolishing military equipment doesn't sound like a "ceasefire" to me. Sorry. If you're firing at anything with the intent to damage military capacity, that's *still* firing.

Also, I believe Medvedev has pointed out that the cease-fire agreement he signed included the Russians having the flexibility to deal with any hostile situation they might encounter; I think he would include the disarming of Georgian military capacity within range of either his troops or the two breakaway republics. You might not think that's fair but, when put in the context that the Russians could have obviously and easily taken over the entire country by now without anyone being able to do a damn thing about it, well, at the very least, it shouldn't be unexpected.
Of course it's not unexpected. That doesn't mean it's right.

I'm afraid when this is all settles down, the US is not only going to look ineffectual but pretty damn silly. My only consoling is that at least McCain isn't in charge - apparently he makes Bush look as bright as John Foster Dulles.
We're going to look ineffectual because too many people are unwilling to treat this as seriously as it should be.







Post#194 at 08-14-2008 05:57 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
08-14-2008, 05:57 PM #194
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Uh...

"Beginning late on August 1, intense fighting began between Georgian troops and paramilitary soldiers of South Ossetia, causing the deaths of six people and injuring 21 others. Each side accused the other of commencing the fighting"

We don't know who started it. And then:

"According to a statement from Georgia's Interior Ministry, during the night and early morning, South Ossetian separatist artillery shelled the Georgian-populated villages of Avnevi, Eredvi, Nuli and some others.[12] These reports also stated that the police station in Kurta, seat of the Sanakoyev administration, was hit by artillery fire. Georgia reported that civilians had begun fleeing these villages.[10] However, South Ossetia denied attacking the villages."

That was before the Georgian offensive.
But not Russian involvement. Further, it’s not clear who died, but if it had been Georgian troops, I think it would have been clearly stated. Seems like these provocations by the separatists could have been dealt with in conjunction with the Russian peacekeepers and that seemed to be what Saakashvili was saying on his TV address on Thursday evening. Just hours later, the Georgian started their massive shelling; that had to be under preparation while he was on TV -- pretty insidious, no?


Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Russian papers? You mean the state-owned media that has a vested interest in making this out to be solely Georgia's fault?

Georgia's media isn't exactly the freest in the world, but it's much better than the Russian media.
That makes it even more interesting that they were screaming despair surprise and hysteria.


Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Uh, I didn't *claim* early Russian manipulation. I don't know if Russia did this in the heat of the moment or if they had planned it for years. The entire thing is opportunistic at best, though.
Lets say the Russians return to within their borders except for peacekeepers in the two regions and those regions opt to remain separate from Georgia, would you still say that the Russians made some major geopolitical gain or just made permanent what has been, more or less, decided since the early 90s. Further, lets say after a couple of years things have settled down and nobody is killing each other and perhaps trade amongst the players has returned; at that point would you be capable of concluding that the Russians didn't push this to their full potential advantage?

Some times it’s good to check one's thinking and bias by seeing what new information would change their mind on a position. For example, before making up my mind, I'm waiting to see what the Russians do from here in regard to hopefully withdrawing from Georgia proper.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
And what are you basing this off of? Rumors? There are rumors on BOTH sides that atrocities are taking place. You're choosing to believe only Russia's side of the story, and completely ignoring the fact that Russians have committed the same atrocities.
I read this for the first time off the blog I posted for you giving the Russian viewpoint. That blogger identified it as a rumor. No one is arguing that at least 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed on that Thursday night by the Georgians initial attack, most reports indicate that it was from the artillery barrage. The question is if the rumor proved true, would this be a factor in changing your mind?

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Demolishing military equipment doesn't sound like a "ceasefire" to me. Sorry. If you're firing at anything with the intent to damage military capacity, that's *still* firing.
No, the demolishing they are undertaking is very different than "still firing." It is a controlled action in a secure area to destroy equipment; it is not a combat situation where you are trying to kill or be killed.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Of course it's not unexpected. That doesn't mean it's right.
Which, the Georgians, just hours after their President makes nice on TV, shelling the tiny region's capital city and killing hundreds of civilians or the Russians opening up a can of whoop ass on them for doing so?

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
We're going to look ineffectual because too many people are unwilling to treat this as seriously as it should be.
Did you have similar views about us going into Iraq on March 18 2003? I might be confused about who I talking with here.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#195 at 08-14-2008 06:22 PM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
---
08-14-2008, 06:22 PM #195
Join Date
Jun 2007
Location
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Posts
1,741

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
But not Russian involvement. Further, it’s not clear who died, but if it had been Georgian troops, I think it would have been clearly stated. Seems like these provocations by the separatists could have been dealt with in conjunction with the Russian peacekeepers and that seemed to be what Saakashvili was saying on his TV address on Thursday evening. Just hours later, the Georgian started their massive shelling; that had to be under preparation while he was on TV -- pretty insidious, no?
I didn't say it was, I just said that Georgia was trying to take care of a military problem that they didn't necessarily start.

But now you've gone and made some temporal displacement of facts. The South Ossetians, whether official or not, attacked Georgian villages in the middle of the night. The Georgian Military responded within hours. The Saakashvili didn't make any speech between the shelling of Georgian villages and the Georgian military response.

Him having a concilliatory tone *before* the attacks is irrelevent: his country was attacked. You have to change your response after something like that happens.

That makes it even more interesting that they were screaming despair surprise and hysteria.
...what?

Basically, what you're saying, is that the Russian media response makes it sound like they are innocent.

Well duh, the Russian Government is in charge of the Russian media. Feigning surprise in order to look innocent of any wrongdoing. Sounds like you've been had by their act.

Lets say the Russians return to within their borders except for peacekeepers in the two regions and those regions opt to remain separate from Georgia, would you still say that the Russians made some major geopolitical gain or just made permanent what has been, more or less, decided since the early 90s. Further, lets say after a couple of years things have settled down and nobody is killing each other and perhaps trade amongst the players has returned; at that point would you be capable of concluding that the Russians didn't push this to their full potential advantage?
Sure, if they did withdraw, then I wouldn't be suspicious. But they aren't right now, so I remain suspicious.

I read this for the first time off the blog I posted for you giving the Russian viewpoint. That blogger identified it as a rumor. No one is arguing that at least 10 Russian peacekeepers were killed on that Thursday night by the Georgians initial attack, most reports indicate that it was from the artillery barrage. The question is if the rumor proved true, would this be a factor in changing your mind?
No, because I already believe in the rumor. And I already believe in the rumors that Russians have been doing similar things to Georgia.

It's a war. Atrocities happen, and they usually aren't controlled, or even controllable, by military or civilian leadership.

No, the demolishing they are undertaking is very different than "still firing." It is a controlled action in a secure area to destroy equipment; it is not a combat situation where you are trying to kill or be killed.
They're still destroying things. If it's a ceasefire, they have no reason to fear being destroyed by unmanned artillery.

Which, the Georgians, just hours after their President makes nice on TV, shelling the tiny region's capital city and killing hundreds of civilians or the Russians opening up a can of whoop ass on them for doing so?
Again, this isn't right. The President didn't make the statement between the attack by South Ossetia and the attack by Georgia. He made it before the attack by South Ossetia.

Did you have similar views about us going into Iraq on March 18 2003? I might be confused about who I talking with here.
No, because Iraq didn't *do* anything in 2002 or 2003.

By the way, in order to avoid any confusion, this is what I think we should do in response:

First, we should bolster our defenses in the former SSRs that are now aligned with the west: namely Poland and Ukraine. It seems that we're already moving towards doing that. Then, we tell Russia that we'll unconditionally let them into the WTO, if they withdraw their forces from Georgia.

Then, working with the UN, we should send in an international peacekeeping force, rather than just a Russian/Georgian one, in order to ensure that neither side acts up again.







Post#196 at 08-15-2008 12:12 AM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
---
08-15-2008, 12:12 AM #196
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS
Posts
984

Ya'll could start by pointing out missing elements in the timeline I'm putting together over on the "2008 Timeline" thread. Include claims by all parties. I'm not counting anything as actually having happened unless at least two of {Russia, Georgia, outside sources} agree it happened.

The first thing to do is find out what happened. Then we can figure out what is whose fault.

It is rather clear that both Russia and Georgia had at least 4-7 days and possibly more warning that a war was possible. It is equally clear that both sides WANTED a war -- partially to resolve the border dispute, but mainly to answer the question of Georgia's sovereignty. Georgia wants its sovereignty to be absolute, while Russia wants it to be more... flexible.

Both sides have claimed the other started it, both sides routinely claim ceasefire violations, and both sides are accusing each other of atrocities. This is de rigeur for the situation, and will remain so until the place is crawling with reporters, cameras, and UN officials. The usual international crisis response organs were caught flatfooted by this one, as was the US intelligence community, and so it has taken several days for the apparatus to start churning out reliable data. Anything before that is suspect. "In war, the first casualty is always the truth."
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#197 at 08-15-2008 12:17 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
08-15-2008, 12:17 AM #197
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
I didn't say it was, I just said that Georgia was trying to take care of a military problem that they didn't necessarily start.

But now you've gone and made some temporal displacement of facts. The South Ossetians, whether official or not, attacked Georgian villages in the middle of the night. The Georgian Military responded within hours. The Saakashvili didn't make any speech between the shelling of Georgian villages and the Georgian military response.

Him having a conciliatory tone *before* the attacks is irrelevant: his country was attacked. You have to change your response after something like that happens.
Ah, you are right about that sequence of events. I was focusing on the activity prior to the speech and jumping to the Georgian massive retaliation several hours later.

As you have pointed out, we do have that story of the S. Ossetians shelling that evening - reported by the Georgians but denied by the S. Ossetians. That does seem to be key.

Do you find it strange that it was TASS, the actual official news outlet for the Russian government, as being the media that reported out this critical event? Seems odd for them to be so straight-forward on this given that it becomes perhaps the key event on who took this over the edge. Here's the actual TASS report -
Ministry reports 10 deaths in Georgian-populated villages in S Ossetia

08.08.2008, 00.31

TBILISI, August 8 (Itar-Tass) -- A total of ten people have died and about 50 others have been wounded since early morning Thursday as a result of gunfire at Georgian-populated villages in the zone of conflict in the much-troubled breakaway region of South Ossetia, a spokesman for Georgia's Interior Ministry said.

The ministry's data indicates that two of the dead are servicemen of the Georgian battalion, which is part of the Joint Peacekeeping Force in the zone of conflict, and the rest are civilians.

Civilians also make up the vast majority of the wounded.

The shelling has affected most severely the villages of Avnevi, Eredvi, Nuli, and some others.

"Gunfire delivered by South Ossetian armed units has brought about destruction or damaging of several dozen buildings there," the spokesman claimed. "Since the South Ossetian side didn't stop shelling during the early morning and in the daytime, the Georgian side was compelled to retaliate with gunfire, too."

"Late at night, the South Ossetian units opened fire on several occasions at the villages of Avnevi, Prisi and a few others, but the Georgian side didn't respond with fire following a decision taken by the President," he said.

In the meantime, authorities in the unrecognized republic of South Ossetia say a number of servicemen of their armed units have been killed or wounded, too.
Given that this reflects the Russian outlook, it suggest a couple possibilities. First possibility is that the Russians came to disbelieve the Georgian version and decided that the Georgians fabricated the story to justify their unleashing their artillery barrage. Second possibility is that the Russians didn't give a crap who started it but did believe that Georgia was "the adult" and should have responded better including working with the Russians on a response rather than unleashing a barrage that killed 1400 civilians and at least 10 Russian peacekeepers. Third possibility is the Russians didn't care who started it (or, even brought it about) just as long as it justified unleashing a can of whoop ass on the Georgians - and taking over the country, taking over the pipeline, scaring the crap out of the other former Republics, showing the world Russia is bad ass again -- you know, the hysteria of Russia wanting to rule the world and this time they really really mean it.

Again, finding out what really happen would be helpful but it might not tell the tale as to which possibility above is actually the fact. Again, what will be telling is what the Russians do next. There, most people are in near hysterics that the Russians haven't immediately tucked their tails and vamoosed to their own borders. Me, I am hearten by the fact that they actually signed the truce when it was obvious that they could have their way with all of Georgia and nobody could do a damn thing about it. I'm leaning toward the Russians being the only adults in a rather large room that includes a lot of children - not only this Bush twin, Saakashvili, but also most Americans.


Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
No, because I already believe in the rumor. And I already believe in the rumors that Russians have been doing similar things to Georgia.

It's a war. Atrocities happen, and they usually aren't controlled, or even controllable, by military or civilian leadership.
I'll have to disagree with you on this. There are some discernments even in combat (e.g Geneva Conventions) and certainly in that twilight zone between tensions between peacekeeping forces and open combat between them. Slicing the Russian peacekeepers throats in their sleep because of the S. Ossetian actions would be way over the line for me. But I guess that's just silly me.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
They're still destroying things. If it's a cease-fire, they have no reason to fear being destroyed by unmanned artillery.
Again, we'll just have to just disagree on this. Unmanned artillery is a temporary condition. If I had the easy choice, I wouldn't withdraw my men from the field with any remaining possibility of their being in the gun sights of left-behind equipment.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
By the way, in order to avoid any confusion, this is what I think we should do in response:

First, we should bolster our defenses in the former SSRs that are now aligned with the west: namely Poland and Ukraine. It seems that we're already moving towards doing that. Then, we tell Russia that we'll unconditionally let them into the WTO, if they withdraw their forces from Georgia.

Then, working with the UN, we should send in an international peacekeeping force, rather than just a Russian/Georgian one, in order to ensure that neither side acts up again.
If I was the Russians and this came about, I would simultaneously shut off all my gas to the Ukraine and Europe while flooding the world with my huge dollar reserves. This would hit us Russians hard, but it would completely devastate the Western economies within just a day or two; Ukraine would quickly become a lawless medieval-level country. I'd tell my Russian people that it will be tough but not nearly as bad as the 1990s for a deal has been made to sell all the natural resources we got to the China and India, and its likely that the Western nations will each come to their senses, eventually break with the US and the others, and come begging to lick our boots. Just in case, I'd throw the West an even bigger problem by drowning the Iranians in weaponry including mobile ICBMs, nukes and over-the-horizon ship killers that will have the Saudis craping their pants and do whatever dance their Persian cousins requested including shutting off the oil. Of course, this might lead to a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel that will destroy the whole Middle East, but hey, that will send my Ruskie oil to the $2000 a barrel level.

Do you really want to have this dance with the Bear, comrade?

I think we need some more adults in the room. Da?
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#198 at 08-15-2008 01:04 AM by Silifi [at Green Bay, Wisconsin joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,741]
---
08-15-2008, 01:04 AM #198
Join Date
Jun 2007
Location
Green Bay, Wisconsin
Posts
1,741

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Do you find it strange that it was TASS, the actual official news outlet for the Russian government, as being the media that reported out this critical event? Seems odd for them to be so straight-forward on this given that it becomes perhaps the key event on who took this over the edge. Here's the actual TASS report -
There is a limit to how far you can lie, you know. Even Bush eventually had to concede that there were no WMDs in Iraq.

Given that this reflects the Russian outlook, it suggest a couple possibilities. First possibility is that the Russians came to disbelieve the Georgian version and decided that the Georgians fabricated the story to justify their unleashing their artillery barrage. Second possibility is that the Russians didn't give a crap who started it but did believe that Georgia was "the adult" and should have responded better including working with the Russians on a response rather than unleashing a barrage that killed 1400 civilians and at least 10 Russian peacekeepers. Third possibility is the Russians didn't care who started it (or, even brought it about) just as long as it justified unleashing a can of whoop ass on the Georgians - and taking over the country, taking over the pipeline, scaring the crap out of the other former Republics, showing the world Russia is bad ass again -- you know, the hysteria of Russia wanting to rule the world and this time they really really mean it.
It could be any of these, but I'm leaning third, just a little less theatrical.

Russia has always had the desire to control these areas. It's part of their history, no different than America's Manifest Destiny.

Again, finding out what really happen would be helpful but it might not tell the tale as to which possibility above is actually the fact. Again, what will be telling is what the Russians do next. There, most people are in near hysterics that the Russians haven't immediately tucked their tails and vamoosed to their own borders. Me, I am hearten by the fact that they actually signed the truce when it was obvious that they could have their way with all of Georgia and nobody could do a damn thing about it. I'm leaning toward the Russians being the only adults in a rather large room that includes a lot of children - not only this Bush twin, Saakashvili, but also most Americans.
The way I see it, this is probably what happened:

South Ossetia and Georgia were fighting. Who knows who started what, that probably goes back decades. The fighting escalated, however, again, with neither side really to blame. Neither Georgia nor Ossetia decided to be the bigger man and try to draw down fighting. They're both at fault.

Then, Russia sees this, and, using plans to invade Georgia that they've had for probably several years now, they decided that this would be the easiest time for such an invasion to take place. It is, however, the Olympics, so a fullscale invasion of Georgia would seem very... tacky.

Now they're just sitting on their hands and waiting for another justification to take the entire country.

I'll have to disagree with you on this. There are some discernments even in combat (e.g Geneva Conventions) and certainly in that twilight zone between tensions between peacekeeping forces and open combat between them. Slicing the Russian peacekeepers throats in their sleep because of the S. Ossetian actions would be way over the line for me. But I guess that's just silly me.
You are vastly overestimating the morality of humanity.

In uncontrolled, 4GW combat, anything goes. Even if the Russian Government/Georgian Government wasn't ordering or condoning atrocities, it is quite likely that they will happen, especially in the context of the intense ethnic tensions in the region.

Abkhazia, incase you've forgotten, cleansed ethnic Georgians in the 90s. And Abkhazia was quite involved in the military operations against Georgia.

Again, we'll just have to just disagree on this. Unmanned artillery is a temporary condition. If I had the easy choice, I wouldn't withdraw my men from the field with any remaining possibility of their being in the gun sights of left-behind equipment.
If there is in fact a cease-fire, then there is nothing to worry about.

Georgia isn't going to pick up the artillery and start firing again. They have no reason to. It would be digging a deeper hole, and I expect that the President understands that.

If I was the Russians and this came about, I would simultaneously shut off all my gas to the Ukraine and Europe while flooding the world with my huge dollar reserves. This would hit us Russians hard, but it would completely devastate the Western economies within just a day or two; Ukraine would quickly become a lawless medieval-level country. I'd tell my Russian people that it will be tough but not nearly as bad as the 1990s for a deal has been made to sell all the natural resources we got to the China and India, and its likely that the Western nations will each come to their senses, eventually break with the US and the others, and come begging to lick our boots. Just in case, I'd throw the West an even bigger problem by drowning the Iranians in weaponry including mobile ICBMs, nukes and over-the-horizon ship killers that will have the Saudis craping their pants and do whatever dance their Persian cousins requested including shutting off the oil. Of course, this might lead to a nuclear exchange between Iran and Israel that will destroy the whole Middle East, but hey, that will send my Ruskie oil to the $2000 a barrel level.

Do you really want to have this dance with the Bear, comrade?

I think we need some more adults in the room. Da?
You do realize that letting them into the WTO is a concession that Russia desperately wants, and that having the US involved in Ukraine and Poland is not a deal breaker, and that according to you, they don't care about Georgia in the first place?

Russia would accept this kind of deal. They would have absolutely no reason to "cut off gas" or any of that nonsense. You are far underestimating the value of being apart of the WTO and the value of being able to sell natural gas to European markets.

I think you've either misread what I've said, or you've misread Foreign Relations 101. The only reason they wouldn't is if they really do have the imperialistic designs that I speak of, in which case, we should be doing everything we can to stop them as a matter of moral justice.







Post#199 at 08-15-2008 01:20 AM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
08-15-2008, 01:20 AM #199
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
...

If there is in fact a cease-fire, then there is nothing to worry about.

Georgia isn't going to pick up the artillery and start firing again. They have no reason to. It would be digging a deeper hole, and I expect that the President understands that.
Looks like its coming down to what Georgia is willing to accept -

Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili said he would need to "take a closer look" at the peace proposal before signing it. We have to see what she (Rice) has to bring," he told CNN late on Thursday.
I think the Russians are being pretty darn clear about it -

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, the architect of a three-day old ceasefire, said Saakashvili's signature to the six-point peace deal would "consolidate" the halt to fighting and lead to the withdrawal of Russian troops.

But Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said: "We can forget about talks on Georgia's territorial integrity because it's impossible to force South Ossetia and Abkhazia to agree that they can be returned into Georgia's fold by force."

Mentioning Georgia's territorial integrity in any document settling the conflict would be seen by people as "the deepest insult," he added in a radio interview.
They seem to think there's been a precedence set -

Russia has said the case of Kosovo, a breakaway province of Serbia whose self-proclaimed independence was promptly recognized by major Western powers, creates a legal precedent for Georgia's separatist South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Yea, if I was the Ruskies I'd sit on that highway and port a little longer to see what the Georgians are ready to settle for. I'd figure the big dog is the US and I got some Iranian, N.Korean, #1 oil/gas exporter, and many many more chips to trade with them over the longer term. Also, once this settles down, maybe folks will see who was the adult in the room.

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
...the value of being able to sell natural gas to Europe...
You're kidding, right?
Last edited by playwrite; 08-15-2008 at 10:31 AM.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#200 at 08-15-2008 03:05 AM by '58 Flat [at Hardhat From Central Jersey joined Jul 2001 #posts 3,300]
---
08-15-2008, 03:05 AM #200
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Hardhat From Central Jersey
Posts
3,300

Quote Originally Posted by Silifi View Post
Abkhazia, incase you've forgotten, cleansed ethnic Georgians in the 90s. And Abkhazia was quite involved in the military operations against Georgia.

And Georgia has oppressed the Abkhazians (and Ossetians) for centuries. What goes around comes around.



I think you've either misread what I've said, or you've misread Foreign Relations 101. The only reason they wouldn't is if they really do have the imperialistic designs that I speak of, in which case, we should be doing everything we can to stop them as a matter of moral justice.

Moral justice?

Surely you jest! What about moral justice for the Ossetians and Abkhazians?

If Georgia wants to be part of "the West," let them act like it; didn't the Czechs have to get their boots off the Slovaks' necks as a condition for being allowed to join that esteemed gentlemen's club? When Georgia starts behaving like Denmark, then and only then do they deserve to be treated like Denmark. Right now the Georgians are carrying on like Rhodesia did - and that's being charitable.

And if I were Vladimir Putin, I'd say to Bush et al: Bleep you. Remember the Warsaw Pact? Well now there's going to be a Tehran Pact, which we're going to sign with Iran, Syria, Sudan etc. Put that in your pipe and smoke it!
Last edited by '58 Flat; 08-15-2008 at 11:50 AM.
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.

Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!
-----------------------------------------