Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Crazy Russia - Page 10







Post#226 at 08-18-2008 09:16 PM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
---
08-18-2008, 09:16 PM #226
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS
Posts
984

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari View Post
Oh, it gets worse:

Quote Originally Posted by Dmitri Medvedev, styled President of the Russian Federation
The world has seen that even today, there are political morons who are ready to kill innocent and defenseless people in order to satisfy their self-serving interests, while compensating for their own inability to resolve complicated issues by using the most terrible solution -- by exterminating an entire people.

I think that there should be no mercy for that. We will do our best not to let this crime go unpunished.
Never mind that international news organizations have clearly shown that, despite Russian rhetoric, TSHK is far less damaged than claimed, and that fewer civilians have died than either side has asserted. Never mind that with North Ossetia within Russian borders, a genocide of the Ossetians is impossible.

From a sober, dispassionate, and unbiased perspective, a solution that preserves the rights of the Georgian, Russian, and Ossetian peoples would be the removal of the 60,000 South Ossetians through the Roki Tunnel to their brothers' land across the spine of the Greater Caucasus, all costs and fair compensation to be paid by Georgia. Abkhazia is a tougher problem but solvable, if anyone actually cared to solve it.

In the Balkans, all external powers (including even Russia) was operating in good faith with the goal of producing a set of workable nations. They were successful to the extent that the actual peoples involved wanted to make their world work. In this case, neither Georgia nor Russia want to negotiate. Russia wants to hold a sword at Georgia's throat, and Georgia cares not for the prospect.
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#227 at 08-19-2008 09:42 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
---
08-19-2008, 09:42 AM #227
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
'49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains
Posts
7,835

Right Arrow The only Reformed Eurasian is a ...

As the Progressives on the Potomac present their theories upon the Reform of the peoples of a certain troubled landmass; perhaps the scalability of Sheridanization ought be brought forth. >>>----->*


The removal of all Eurasians to another landmass or even to the next world (a genocide being impossible as there are fellows of the like West of the Suez) will come to be entertained in time. That Commercial Republican leaders have been brought to believe that they have the right to move peoples and their domestic livestock hither and yon is a step in the direction of Crush ---insert Continental landmass here--- Skulls in Romantic Idealist imagination. A sober, dispassionate, and unbiased Romantic Idealism to be sure and when Intentions and not Results are what is to be placed in the scale of Justice who would dare deny the weight of such a thing?

______
*My apologies to any and all First Nationals for using the Arrow of Progress when it ought properly be the Clusterbomb of Compassion (which I cannot sadly form with this typeface).







Post#228 at 08-25-2008 03:30 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
08-25-2008, 03:30 PM #228
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

What the heck happened?

Hey, what's the deal here? I go away for a week with all sort of folks telling me the Russians are going to cut the pipelines, take over all of Georgia, invade Ukraine, start WW3!

Now we're down to the Russians are going to do more than just guarantee the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia; instead, they're going to swallow them up like some giant blob from outer space (see Steve McQueen; "The Blob;" circa 1958; Cold War). Seems pretty wimpy in comparison. Don't the Ruskies know they're suppose to take over the country for 6 years and then maybe promise to get out only when their own imposed flunky jumps up and down and demands a timetable (see latest on Iraq - http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5g...bGGrAD92PBI980 ).
These Ruskies are whussies.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#229 at 08-28-2008 12:24 AM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
---
08-28-2008, 12:24 AM #229
Join Date
Jul 2007
Posts
1,625

Quote Originally Posted by catfishncod View Post
Oh, it gets worse:



Never mind that international news organizations have clearly shown that, despite Russian rhetoric, TSHK is far less damaged than claimed, and that fewer civilians have died than either side has asserted. Never mind that with North Ossetia within Russian borders, a genocide of the Ossetians is impossible.

From a sober, dispassionate, and unbiased perspective, a solution that preserves the rights of the Georgian, Russian, and Ossetian peoples would be the removal of the 60,000 South Ossetians through the Roki Tunnel to their brothers' land across the spine of the Greater Caucasus, all costs and fair compensation to be paid by Georgia. Abkhazia is a tougher problem but solvable, if anyone actually cared to solve it.

In the Balkans, all external powers (including even Russia) was operating in good faith with the goal of producing a set of workable nations. They were successful to the extent that the actual peoples involved wanted to make their world work. In this case, neither Georgia nor Russia want to negotiate. Russia wants to hold a sword at Georgia's throat, and Georgia cares not for the prospect.
And when you consider Russia's aiding and even abetting ethnic cleansing of Georgians in South Ossetia, which President Eduard Kokoity has pretty much admitted to, it becomes even scarier!

Don;t believe me, look at this article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_war







Post#230 at 08-28-2008 01:22 AM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
---
08-28-2008, 01:22 AM #230
Join Date
Dec 2005
Posts
7,116

Realpolitik

Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
And when you consider Russia's aiding and even abetting ethnic cleansing of Georgians in South Ossetia, which President Eduard Kokoity has pretty much admitted to, it becomes even scarier!

Don;t believe me, look at this article:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_war
First, the factual accuracy of that link is disputed.
Second of all Georgia started it.
The Republic of Georgia acted stupidly.
They baited the bear and the bear got 'em.

Thems the breaks.
And bad breaks tend to happen to countries that make stupid decisions.







Post#231 at 08-28-2008 10:18 AM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
---
08-28-2008, 10:18 AM #231
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS
Posts
984

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
First, the factual accuracy of that link is disputed.
Second of all Georgia started it.
Still under dispute. Sources in Georgia report that Ossetians had ordnance beyond Russian peacekeeping issue on 06 AUG and that the Russian tank column was in motion on the evening of 07 AUG, before Georgian forces crossed the border at dawn on 08 AUG.

Without third-party intelligence assets, determining who is lying may well be impossible.

I really have trouble believing how foolish the Caucasus nations are behaving. Every border and territorial dispute is just another tool for Russia to use to re-conquer them. Instead of praying for the US or EU to come save them, it would make much more sense to form a Caucasian Federation and present a united front to Russian aggression.

Given the demographic collapse of Russia, the issue may be moot in fifty years... but still...
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#232 at 08-28-2008 02:34 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
---
08-28-2008, 02:34 PM #232
Join Date
Dec 2005
Posts
7,116

Quote Originally Posted by catfishncod View Post
Still under dispute. Sources in Georgia report that Ossetians had ordnance beyond Russian peacekeeping issue on 06 AUG and that the Russian tank column was in motion on the evening of 07 AUG, before Georgian forces crossed the border at dawn on 08 AUG.
Oh, I have no doubt that Russia was looking for the pretext that would justify reclaiming their historical domination of the area. What's amazing to me is how the Georgians acted as if they were the regional hedgemon. It's not like the "big guy" isn't going to notice.
I really have trouble believing how foolish the Caucasus nations are behaving. Every border and territorial dispute is just another tool for Russia to use to re-conquer them. Instead of praying for the US or EU to come save them, it would make much more sense to form a Caucasian Federation and present a united front to Russian aggression.
It's not like there isn't an historical model from the cold war era showing how to keep a constitutional democracy for a smaller country that neighbored the previous incarnation of the same undemocratic superpower. As is true with people, countries should earn from the experence of others.
Given the demographic collapse of Russia, the issue may be moot in fifty years... but still...
A european country having the largest landholding in asia no doubt sets ill with many. I suspect that the Chinese harbor the desire to demographically overwhem rescorce rich and sparsely populated Siberia. No, I wouldn't want to adjust to siberian winters, but the desires of the individual are a low priority in that part of the world.
Last edited by herbal tee; 08-28-2008 at 02:36 PM.







Post#233 at 08-28-2008 03:25 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
---
08-28-2008, 03:25 PM #233
Join Date
Mar 2003
Location
Where the Northwest meets the Southwest
Posts
9,198

One thing seems obvious to me. By invading a sovereign nation without provocation and without a legitimate international mandate, as we did with Iraq, we are in quite a jam trying to muster any moral authority regarding condemning Russia for invading Georgia. I mean, what the hell are we going to say?

And besides our moral authority, if we didn't have an overstretched and undermaintained army bogged down in Iraq (and zillions of dollars going to down a black hole to pay contractors because we don't have enough troops for the job to begin with) we might be in a better geopolitical position vis-a-vis Russia which may have made them think twice before doing all of this.

It is our weakness, at a number of levels, that encouraged this. God Bless George W. Bush. Vote McCain.
Last edited by Zarathustra; 08-28-2008 at 03:43 PM.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#234 at 08-28-2008 03:39 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
---
08-28-2008, 03:39 PM #234
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
'49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains
Posts
7,835

Thumbs down On the Holarctic Hatreds

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
,,. No, I wouldn't want to adjust to siberian winters, but the desires of the individual are a low priority in that part of the world.
If you stab us do we not bleed (well, after we thaw out to be sure, but still)?

The large bigotry of the climaticoist Progressive isn't pretty. Someone owes the tundra a hug!!!







Post#235 at 08-28-2008 04:14 PM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
---
08-28-2008, 04:14 PM #235
Join Date
Dec 2005
Posts
7,116

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari View Post
If you stab us do we not bleed (well, after we thaw out to be sure, but still)?

The large bigotry of the climaticoist Progressive isn't pretty. Someone owes the tundra a hug!!!
Mr. Norseman,

I was referring to eastern collectivism rather than nordic hardiness when making the above comment.







Post#236 at 08-28-2008 04:21 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
---
08-28-2008, 04:21 PM #236
Join Date
Mar 2003
Location
Where the Northwest meets the Southwest
Posts
9,198

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
Mr. Norseman,

I was referring to eastern collectivism rather than nordic hardiness when making the above comment.
Mr. Saari's ethnic heritage, though it does seem to have close genetic relations with the Nordics, is decidedly non-Indo-European at least on the cultural-linguistic side. And if one buys the Ural-Altaic language superfamily theory, he's got more in common with a Mongol than a Norseman.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#237 at 08-28-2008 09:41 PM by K-I-A 67 [at joined Jan 2005 #posts 3,010]
---
08-28-2008, 09:41 PM #237
Join Date
Jan 2005
Posts
3,010

Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
One thing seems obvious to me. By invading a sovereign nation without provocation and without a legitimate international mandate, as we did with Iraq, we are in quite a jam trying to muster any moral authority regarding condemning Russia for invading Georgia. I mean, what the hell are we going to say?

And besides our moral authority, if we didn't have an overstretched and undermaintained army bogged down in Iraq (and zillions of dollars going to down a black hole to pay contractors because we don't have enough troops for the job to begin with) we might be in a better geopolitical position vis-a-vis Russia which may have made them think twice before doing all of this.

It is our weakness, at a number of levels, that encouraged this. God Bless George W. Bush. Vote McCain.
Damn, I'm sure glad you decided to slither under the political fence, so to speak.







Post#238 at 08-29-2008 12:30 AM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
---
08-29-2008, 12:30 AM #238
Join Date
Dec 2005
Posts
7,116

Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
Mr. Saari's ethnic heritage, though it does seem to have close genetic relations with the Nordics, is decidedly non-Indo-European at least on the cultural-linguistic side. And if one buys the Ural-Altaic language superfamily theory, he's got more in common with a Mongol than a Norseman.
Of course the Finns started out in asia. But who would claim that they haven't made the eastern Baltic gtheir modern homeland?







Post#239 at 08-29-2008 02:00 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
---
08-29-2008, 02:00 AM #239
Join Date
Mar 2003
Location
Where the Northwest meets the Southwest
Posts
9,198

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
Of course the Finns started out in asia.
Not necessarily. The genetic studies I've read about point to the Finns as being genetically in the same pool as other Scandanavians. It seems likely that Uralic invaders at some point imposed their language on a portion of these pre-Germanics and today we call them Finns (and Estonians).

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
But who would claim that they haven't made the eastern Baltic gtheir modern homeland?
But you called him a "Norseman". This specifically refers to Norwegians. "Nordic" would be a more generic term, but even then incorrect to apply to Finns, linguistically at least. "Scandanavian" could encompass the Finns with the rest in all categories, I suppose.

FWIW.

Mr. Saari, your views?
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#240 at 08-29-2008 10:28 AM by herbal tee [at joined Dec 2005 #posts 7,116]
---
08-29-2008, 10:28 AM #240
Join Date
Dec 2005
Posts
7,116

Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
Not necessarily. The genetic studies I've read about point to the Finns as being genetically in the same pool as other Scandanavians. It seems likely that Uralic invaders at some point imposed their language on a portion of these pre-Germanics and today we call them Finns (and Estonians).
And they have a richer gene pool because of it. And no, I'm not dissing Norwegians, Swedes, Danes, Faero Islanders or North Dakotains in writing this.
But you called him a "Norseman". This specifically refers to Norwegians. "Nordic" would be a more generic term, but even then incorrect to apply to Finns, linguistically at least. "Scandanavian" could encompass the Finns with the rest in all categories, I suppose.

FWIW.
He lives in the Gopher State. In the town that arguably has the coldest winters outside of Alaska. His neighbors mostly pull for the NFL team that plays in the twin cities metro area and wears purple helmets. That's close enough for this joneser. ::
Last edited by herbal tee; 08-29-2008 at 01:21 PM.







Post#241 at 08-29-2008 02:03 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
---
08-29-2008, 02:03 PM #241
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
'49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains
Posts
7,835

The peninsular peoples of Scandinavia; the Danes, Norwegians, Sami, Scanians, and Swedes--Scandinavians; style themselves and the Icelanders and Finns as living in Norden (the North), ie. Nordic, Pohjolan


The Finns in Norway (Finnskogar) are Scandinavians; the Swedes in Finland (ruotsalaisseutu) are Nordics.







Post#242 at 08-29-2008 02:08 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
---
08-29-2008, 02:08 PM #242
Join Date
Jul 2002
Location
Arlington, VA 1956
Posts
9,209

Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari View Post
The peninsular peoples of Scandinavia; the Danes, Norwegians, Sami, Scanians, and Swedes--Scandinavians; style themselves and the Icelanders and Finns as living in Norden (the North), ie. Nordic, Pohjolan


The Finns in Norway (Finnskogar) are Scandinavians; the Swedes in Finland (ruotsalaisseutu) are Nordics.
What about the Finns in Sverige?
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#243 at 08-29-2008 04:05 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
---
08-29-2008, 04:05 PM #243
Join Date
Mar 2003
Location
Where the Northwest meets the Southwest
Posts
9,198

Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
He lives in the Gopher State. In the town that arguably has the coldest winters outside of Alaska. His neighbors mostly pull for the NFL team that plays in the twin cities metro area and wears purple helmets. That's close enough for this joneser. ::
I concede the point then.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#244 at 08-29-2008 09:45 PM by K-I-A 67 [at joined Jan 2005 #posts 3,010]
---
08-29-2008, 09:45 PM #244
Join Date
Jan 2005
Posts
3,010

Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
And if Obama does manage to win, he'll probably be slithering right back under in another four years.

Do ya wanna make a bet on it? Hahaha!







Post#245 at 09-12-2008 06:36 PM by Jeremiah175 [at North Tonawanda, Ny joined Dec 2002 #posts 323]
---
09-12-2008, 06:36 PM #245
Join Date
Dec 2002
Location
North Tonawanda, Ny
Posts
323

Russian bombers in Venezuela amid tension with U.S.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americ...ela/index.html

also

U.S. expelling Venezuelan envoy in response to Chavez

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/americ...iref=hpmostpop

What are the short and long term implications?

JVS
Born 8.22.78







Post#246 at 10-05-2008 07:20 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
---
10-05-2008, 07:20 PM #246
Join Date
Jul 2002
Location
Arlington, VA 1956
Posts
9,209

Behind the Bluster, Russia Is Collapsing

This Washington Post article takes a dim view of Russia's prospects. I'd love to see Justin 77's perspective on this article. Justin, are you lurking on 4T?

The bear is back. That's what all too many Russia-watchers have been saying since Russian troops steamrolled Georgia in August, warning that the country's strongman, Vladimir Putin, was clawing his way back toward superpower status. The new Russia's resurgence has been fueled -- quite literally -- by windfall profits from gas and oil, a big jump in defense spending and the cocky attitude on such display during the mauling of Georgia, its U.S.-backed neighbor to the south. Many now believe that the powerful Russian bear of the Cold War years is coming out of hibernation.

Not so fast. Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia's army could take tiny Georgia. But Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic.

To be sure, the skylines of Russia's cities are chock-a-block with cranes. Industrial lofts are now the rage in Moscow, Russian tourists crowd far-flung locales from Thailand to the Caribbean, and Russian moguls are snapping up real estate and art in London almost as quickly as their oil-rich counterparts from the Persian Gulf. But behind the shiny surface, Russian society may actually be weaker than it was even during Soviet times. The Kremlin's recent military adventures and tough talk are the bluster of the frail, not the swagger of the strong.

While Russia has capitalized impressively on its oil industry, the volatility of the world oil market means that Putin cannot count on a long-term pipeline of cash flowing from high oil prices. A predicted drop of about one-third in the price of a barrel of oil will surely constrain Putin's ability to carry out his ambitious agendas, both foreign and domestic.

That makes Moscow's announced plan to boost defense spending by close to 26 percent in 2009 -- in order to fully re-arm its military with state-of-the-art weaponry -- a dicey proposition. What the world saw in Georgia was a badly outdated arsenal, one that would take many years to replace -- even assuming the country could afford the $200 billion cost.

Something even larger is blocking Russia's march. Recent decades, most notably since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, have seen an appalling deterioration in the health of the Russian population, anchoring Russia not in the forefront of developed countries but among the most backward of nations.

This is a tragedy of huge proportions -- but not a particularly surprising one, at least to me. I followed population, health and environmental issues in the Soviet Union for decades, and more recently, I have reported on diseases such as the HIV/AIDS epidemic ravaging the Russian population. I've visited Russia more than 50 times over the years, so I can say from firsthand experience that this national calamity isn't happening suddenly. It's happening inexorably.

According to U.N. figures, the average life expectancy for a Russian man is 59 years -- putting the country at about 166th place in the world longevity sweepstakes, one notch above Gambia. For women, the picture is somewhat rosier: They can expect to live, on average, 73 years, barely beating out the Moldovans. But there are still some 126 countries where they could expect to live longer. And the gap between expected longevity for men and for women -- 14 years -- is the largest in the developed world.

So what's killing the Russians? All the usual suspects -- HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, alcoholism, cancer, cardiovascular and circulatory diseases, suicides, smoking, traffic accidents -- but they occur in alarmingly large numbers, and Moscow has neither the resources nor the will to stem the tide. Consider this:

Three times as many Russians die from heart-related illnesses as do Americans or Europeans, per each 100,000 people.

Tuberculosis deaths in Russia are about triple the World Health Organization's definition of an epidemic, which is based on a new-case rate of 50 cases per 100,000 people.

Average alcohol consumption per capita is double the rate the WHO considers dangerous to one's health.

About 1 million people in Russia have been diagnosed with HIV or AIDS, according to WHO estimates.

Using mid-year figures, it's estimated that 25 percent more new HIV/AIDS cases will be recorded this year than were logged in 2007.

And none of this is likely to get better any time soon. Peter Piot, the head of UNAIDS, the U.N. agency created in response to the epidemic, told a press conference this summer that he is "very pessimistic about what is going on in Russia and Eastern Europe . . . where there is the least progress." This should be all the more worrisome because young people are most at risk in Russia. In the United States and Western Europe, 70 percent of those with HIV/AIDS are men over age 30; in Russia, 80 percent of this group are aged 15 to 29. And although injected-drug users represent about 65 percent of Russia's cases, the country has officially rejected methadone as a treatment, even though it would likely reduce the potential for HIV infections that lead to AIDS.

And then there's tuberculosis -- remember tuberculosis? In the United States, with a population of 303 million, 650 people died of the disease in 2007. In Russia, which has a total of 142 million people, an astonishing 24,000 of them died of tuberculosis in 2007. Can it possibly be coincidental that, according to Gennady Onishchenko, the country's chief public health physician, only 9 percent of Russian TB hospitals meet current hygienic standards, 21 percent lack either hot or cold running water, 11 percent lack a sewer system, and 20 percent have a shortage of TB drugs? Hardly.

On the other end of the lifeline, the news isn't much better. Russia's birth rate has been declining for more than a decade, and even a recent increase in births will be limited by the fact that the number of women age 20 to 29 (those responsible for two-thirds of all babies) will drop markedly in the next four or five years to mirror the 50 percent drop in the birth rate in the late 1980s and the 1990s. And, sadly, the health of Russia's newborns is quite poor, with about 70 percent of them experiencing complications at birth.

Last summer, Piot of UNAIDS said that bringing Russia's HIV/AIDS epidemic under control was "a matter of political leadership and of changing the policy." He might just as well have been talking about the much larger public health crisis that threatens this vast country. But the policies seem unlikely to change as the bear lumbers along, driven by disastrously misplaced priorities and the blindingly unrealistic expectations of a resentment-driven political leadership. Moscow remains bent on ignoring the devastating truth: The nation is not just sick but dying.
murray.feshbach@wilsoncenter.org


Murray Feshbach is a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a research professor emeritus at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#247 at 10-05-2008 11:20 PM by playwrite [at NYC joined Jul 2005 #posts 10,443]
---
10-05-2008, 11:20 PM #247
Join Date
Jul 2005
Location
NYC
Posts
10,443

Quote Originally Posted by The Wonkette View Post
This Washington Post article takes a dim view of Russia's prospects. I'd love to see Justin 77's perspective on this article. Justin, are you lurking on 4T?

[/I]

Ten years ago, the ruble took its nosedive - 1998.

I wonder if ten years from 2008, we won't see a similiar analysis of the US's bid to return to some semblence of power as well as population health. Things can change so quickly.
"The Devil enters the prompter's box and the play is ready to start" - R. Service

“It’s not tax money. The banks have accounts with the Fed … so, to lend to a bank, we simply use the computer to mark up the size of the account that they have with the Fed. It’s much more akin to printing money.” - B.Bernanke


"Keep your filthy hands off my guns while I decide what you can & can't do with your uterus" - Sarah Silverman

If you meet a magic pony on the road, kill it. - Playwrite







Post#248 at 10-06-2008 11:46 AM by SVE-KRD [at joined Apr 2007 #posts 1,097]
---
10-06-2008, 11:46 AM #248
Join Date
Apr 2007
Posts
1,097

Quote Originally Posted by playwrite View Post
Ten years ago, the ruble took its nosedive - 1998.

I wonder if ten years from 2008, we won't see a similiar analysis of the US's bid to return to some semblence of power as well as population health. Things can change so quickly.
Quite possibly.







Post#249 at 11-04-2008 05:45 AM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
---
11-04-2008, 05:45 AM #249
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Meh.
Posts
12,182

Quote Originally Posted by Pink Splice View Post
Where's Justin?

Probably digging a hole.
Hah! Not hardly. Got to remember, I'm like way the hell far away from the Caucasus (something in the thousands of miles by road for sure). I'm just crazy-busy what with still working on getting the house built, the normal day-to-day of running our assembly plant, and the planning, negotiating, and screaming-people-out that's associated with keeping our plant expansion going. Plus Andi and the kids. And then all the other stuff that comes up.
I just sort of figured on popping by today (Monday-Tuesday is a holiday here, so I've got a couple seconds), for the heck of it. We'll see if time permits me to make this stick.

As for how the whole Georgia thing turned out down here, some things quite clear from here that seem not to be making their way back so much:

First, the borders of the Post-Soviet republics upon the break-up were left pretty much exactly on the lines the USSR drew. This did things like put Nagorno-Kharabak (an Armenian region) inside Azerbaijan, the Independent-Since-Alexander's-Army-Retreated-From-India region of Abkhazia inside Georgia, and the Ossetian region split bewteen Russia and Georgia. So it's worth keeping in mind that the national boundaries being fought over are largely lines drawn by Stalin -- a Georgian himself, let's not forget -- and his buddies on a map.

When the USSR broke down, the various constituent countries took somewhat different paths. Several of the smaller regions, particularly in the Central Asia/Caucasus region (look agin at that demographic map someone posted) tried to push the breakdown even a step further -- encouraged in large part by Yeltsin's clear policy of reviving the autonomy of the various nations in Russia (that's why you've got Bashkiri, Tatar, Buryat, Nenets, and so on and so on spoken in regional governments throughout the RF today, for example).

Gamsakhurdia and Shevardnadze, however, apparently had different ideas about the autonomy of their regions. (As did Yeltsin, btw, when Chechnya took the whole autonomy thing further than he wanted. Saints in that time were far and few between). So the war in the 90s ended with S.Ossetia and Abkhazia relatively stalemated with Georgia. As part of the cease-fire they helped broker, Russia had peacekeeper troops stationed alongside the Georgian and local troops in both of those regions.

Caucasians tend to be hot-headed hill folk, so the cease-fire was never really 100% enforceable all the time. But the level was always kept down to at least low-grade sporadic mayhem. Which beats the heck out of full-on Caucasus war. It was at least a more or less decent place to stop. Georgia got to claim it still owned the places, and the regions got to pretend like they were going to get to be independent some day. They called it a 'frozen conflict'. But again, at least quasi-stable.

And then the EU and NATO banded together and backed the independence of Kosovo (a city, for chrissake! Not even a county or a region, but just a single city!), the secession forces in those frozen conflict areas -- as had been predicted would happen following the Kosovo independence -- kind of woke back up. The votes held in several of the regions were among the first actions (again, it worked for Kosovo) they took. And none of the independence measure failed. Who would expect otherwise?

Ostensibly to help counter the border-crossing difficulties that had been building over the past couple years between Russia and Georgia (though almost certainly heavily-salted with a dose of spit-in-their-eye), Russia started issuing passports to S.Ossetians who had family living in N.Ossetia. Bearing in mind the fact that the two regions are really one that just happens to be split by a line that wasn't even really important in the slightest until fifteen or so years ago, that put a huge chunk of the S.Ossetian people in the position of having dual Russian-Georgian citizenship. It should be noted that Russia did this in large part to avoid having the region declare independence from Georgia; rather it was looked at as a way to counteract the ripples of Kosovo that were threatening to thaw the frozen conflict. They would make a bit more formal their protection of the people of N.Ossetia (and Abkhazia) from any future Georgian aggression, in exchange for which the regions would allow themselves to remain formally a part of Georgia. It's tough to say whether that was working or not. Most likely -- as with anything politicians do -- not as well as they had hoped. One this it did do, though, was commit the RF to any future Georgian/Ossetian conflict. Their Constitution compels them to come to the aid of their citizens -- which now the Ossetians were.

Into the mix jumps Misha, inexplicably deciding to settle the issue himself, once and for all. The predominant theory here is that he was hoping to either get away with grabbing S.Ossetia while Russia was afraid to react, or alternately, to provoke a response from Russia and in doing so get Georgia's NATO-membership fast tracked after the 'threat' from the Bear was thrown out for all to see.

We all know how well that played out for him. The opposition that he so succesfully suppressed in the last 'election' cycle in Georgia is coming out strong, and it's pretty unclear how, without doing some serious skull-crushing, Misha is going to keep his spot in charge. So there's one good result for everyone involved, at least (unless he does go the skull-crushing route, of course. More on that in a second).

One of the things Russia did, after pushing the invasion forces out, was continue into Georgia far enough to basically smash up and/or loot any military-useful goodies they could find. It's safe to say that the toys were a big factor in driving Misha to take his swing. So, no gear = no war. Russia sat in Georgia just long enough to get that taken care of, then started pulling out. Which they ultimately did more or less on the schedule agreed to with the EU and Georgia. Of course, they did manage to drag things out far enough that, by the time they got to the edge of S.Ossetia and Abkhazia, the two regions had officially declared their independence. So instead of having to pull out of all the regions they had moved into, they only had to pull out of all the parts of Georgia they had moved into. S.Ossetia and Abkhazia weren't Georgia anymore, so they pulled back behind those lines and stopped. A sleazy-lawyer move, sure. But legitimate, nevetheless.

And that's where we're at now. The frozen conflict got thawed and worked through to more or less resolution. The independence of the two regions is an accomplished fact, and it's just the clean-up that remains.

-- Fun Fact --
Two of the guys on our cab line (brothers; we've got a decent chunk of the population of one of the small villages nearby working for us, so that happens) have a more personal connection to this. The third Gargashashvili brother was on the peacekeeping detachment on Tsinkhinvali when this all went down. One of the first acts of the war-proper (unclear whether before or after the bombardment was launched, but not far-spaced in either case) was the murder by the Georgian 'peacekeeping' detachment of their Russian and Ossetian colleagues. The family got his body back a while ago; Artur had been shot in the head while he slept.
-- /Fun Fact --
"Qu'est-ce que c'est que cela, la loi ? On peut donc être dehors. Je ne comprends pas. Quant à moi, suis-je dans la loi ? suis-je hors la loi ? Je n'en sais rien. Mourir de faim, est-ce être dans la loi ?" -- Tellmarch

"Человек не может снять с себя ответственности за свои поступки." - L. Tolstoy

"[it]
is no doubt obvious, the cult of the experts is both self-serving, for those who propound it, and fraudulent." - Noam Chomsky







Post#250 at 11-04-2008 10:42 AM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
---
11-04-2008, 10:42 AM #250
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Albuquerque, NM
Posts
8,876

Justin! Good to see you again and to get your on-the-spot reporting from Russia. Good luck in your various enterprises, and do tell us how Russian public opinion will view the forthcoming regime change here.
How to spot a shill, by John Michael Greer: "What you watch for is (a) a brand new commenter who (b) has nothing to say about the topic under discussion but (c) trots out a smoothly written opinion piece that (d) hits all the standard talking points currently being used by a specific political or corporate interest, while (e) avoiding any other points anyone else has made on that subject."

"If the shoe fits..." The Grey Badger.
-----------------------------------------