Over on this thread, we have engaged in a discussion of how World War Two affected Russian kids. Since World War One was the crisis war for Russia, the kids during World War Two should be of the prophet archetype. However, since the second world war was extremely bad for Russia, I suggested that a risk-aversive, indecisive generation could be made.

If a prophet generation is turned into an artist generation there wouldn't be an awakening during the 40's and 50's, since the prophet/hero dynamic drives the awakening. A silent/hero dynamic wouldn't produce the same results.

Does anyone know what Russia was like during this time period?

Thanks,

Matt

A case could possibly be made for saying that Russia's 4T was artificially prolonged for the duration of the Stalin Era, and more definitely that Russia's being dragged into World War II put said country back into something strongly resembling a 4T, in that they were fighting for their very existence against an enemy determined to completely eradicate them (for the sake of lebensraum). Either way, the generation that came of age into World War II would have been forced into the hero role, and those who were children during said war would have grown up adaptive.

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

A case could possibly be made for saying that Russia's 4T was artificially prolonged for the duration of the Stalin Era, and more definitely that Russia's being dragged into World War II put said country back into something strongly resembling a 4T, in that they were fighting for their very existence against an enemy determined to completely eradicate them (for the sake of lebensraum). Either way, the generation that came of age into World War II would have been forced into the hero role, and those who were children during said war would have grown up adaptive.

IOW, World War 2 essentially synchronized the Russian saeculum with that of America and Western Europe. That is plausible. However it makes more sense that the Bolshevik Revolution and WW1 were the Russkies' Awakening Climax, that their 3T ran from around 1920 through 1938, and they had a truncated Crisis from 1939 (Hitler's invasion of Poland) through 1953 (death of Stalin).

--

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

The USSR unraveled rather quickly during thus unraveling. I believe that the Bolshevik Revolution occured during a similar unraveling.

Witness:

Russian empire in 1913



USSR in 1925



USSR in 1945



Russian Federation today



I think Russia is still falling apart. I expect it to shrink even more. It's imperial sun has set.

I have envisioned the Yenisei as becoming the new Sino-Russian border - if Russia is lucky. If not, it could be the Urals, or perhaps if Russia proves to be extremely unlucky, Petrograd could become China's Baltic seaport.

To all,

I am not looking to debate if Russia was in a CW during WWI or WWII. That is happening over here
http://www.fourthturning.com/forums/...=143548#143548

I already know the answer to that question. What I am wondering is whether Russia's generational pattern was skewed because of World War Two. If we see an awakening during the 40's and 50's then it probably wasn't. If the awakening coincides with America's awakening, then it probably was.

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

I have envisioned the Yenisei as becoming the new Sino-Russian border - if Russia is lucky. If not, it could be the Urals, or perhaps if Russia proves to be extremely unlucky, Petrograd could become China's Baltic seaport.

With Russia's 6000+ ICBMs (to China's 60 or so) being able to quickly take away any Chinese population advantage in a matter of minutes, I think China will continue to treat the Bear very nicely. With huge proven oil reserves (and God only knows what more is out there in one of their 11 time zones), we will all be very nice to those Ruskies or at least their czars for some time to come.

Have you've been to Moscow lately? Its booming. And, St. Pete is building an opera house to rival the NY Met.; they are aiming to put the city of Peter and Catherine culturally on par with Paris, London and NYC. They got the monies to do it -- and its not only Petro$s, but PetroEuros and PetroYuans. And its not only petro -- with just about any other mineral commodity you can think of, Russia is the elephant (or bear) in the supply-demand trading rooms.

A 4th Turning that clamps shut the American consumer's pocketbook will cause a US depression and devastate the Chinese and most Far Eastern and European economies. I dare say, however, that it will be ‘bearly’ noticeable in Russia.

If the last 100 years haven't taught anything else, it should still have instilled a sense that, with Russia, its important to stay up-to-date. To correct Churchill - Russia is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma that constantly changes and surprises.

Originally Posted by salsabob

And, St. Pete is building an opera house to rival the NY Met.; they are aiming to put the city of Peter and Catherine culturally on par with Paris, London and NYC.

You mean the city that has been known for almost 300 years as "The Venice of the North"? I hate to break it to you, but culturally, New York only recently caught up with Peter...

They got the monies to do it -- and its not only Petro$s, but PetroEuros and PetroYuans. And its not only petro -- with just about any other mineral commodity you can think of, Russia is the elephant (or bear) in the supply-demand trading rooms.

Don't forget timber. Some of our biggest work in the Russian Far East (aside from coal mining) is in timber outfits in Khabarovskiy Kray.

I like to describe Russia as a country with a great degree of demand (and the goods to finance it), but with a puzzling lack of suppliers. Ikea's top three most profitable stores in the world are all in the Moscow metropolitan area. The most recent one (a three-story behemoth) paid itself off in less than nine months...

In fact, I'd bet that once the bills come due for China's US customer base, the Chinese will find their northern neighbors more than ready to start taking up the slack. Certainly, that's got to be something the Chinese are thinking about...

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Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

...and that it has yet to put down an 11+ year revolt in the Caucuses.

Oh, you mean the rebellion that's been going on for the last 220 years? There's more to reality than the TeeVee tells you, bud.

One thing I also really *hate* about Western attitudes towards Russia is that we must be deferential to Putin or Stalin or whomever the new czar may be.

Oh, is that what they're doing by establishing an encirclement of permanent bases around Russia, frequently on the grounds of some of Russia's very long-time trading partners? Cozying up to the 'Tsar"? :lol: :lol:

The reality is that Russia of itself runs from Petersburg to the Urals, and Archangelsk to the Caucuses. Everything else is lightly populated "frontier."

Yeh. Spend a couple days in Vladik (or Nakhodka; or Khabarovsk; or Irkutsk) and tell me that again. Lightly populated it is, but the Far East is a serious part of Russia.

I appreciate that the median American gets all of his information about the outside world from the idiot box, and don't hold that against you. Nonetheless, naught is much more irritating than a poorly-informed person, who should realize how poorly-informed he is, holding forth regardless. It's perfectly okay to be ignorant of something, or to lack adequate information to hold an opinion on it.

- - -

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Originally Posted by salsabob

And, St. Pete is building an opera house to rival the NY Met.; they are aiming to put the city of Peter and Catherine culturally on par with Paris, London and NYC.

You mean the city that has been known for almost 300 years as "The Venice of the North"? I hate to break it to you, but culturally, New York only recently caught up with Peter...

They got the monies to do it -- and its not only Petro$s, but PetroEuros and PetroYuans. And its not only petro -- with just about any other mineral commodity you can think of, Russia is the elephant (or bear) in the supply-demand trading rooms.

Don't forget timber. Some of our biggest work in the Russian Far East (aside from coal mining) is in timber outfits in Khabarovskiy Kray.

I like to describe Russia as a country with a great degree of demand (and the goods to finance it), but with a puzzling lack of suppliers. Ikea's top three most profitable stores in the world are all in the Moscow metropolitan area. The most recent one (a three-story behemoth) paid itself off in less than nine months...

In fact, I'd bet that once the bills come due for China's US customer base, the Chinese will find their northern neighbors more than ready to start taking up the slack. Certainly, that's got to be something the Chinese are thinking about...

I agree with much of what you say and forecast here. Just like to point out that the Venice of the North was culturally sidetracked for most of the last century. For example, the commies used the Church of the Sacred (Spilled) Blood to warehouse street-cleaning equipment --



Like my St. Pete wife -- very beautiful, with some historical sadness, but with a very practical core (maybe why she married me? ;-).

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Originally Posted by salsabob

Like my St. Pete wife -- very beautiful, with some historical sadness, but with a very practical core (maybe why she married me? ;-).

Dude, she scratched your faces out. That can't be a good thing.

:lol:

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

...and that it has yet to put down an 11+ year revolt in the Caucuses.

Oh, you mean the rebellion that's been going on for the last 220 years? There's more to reality than the TeeVee tells you, bud.

One thing I also really *hate* about Western attitudes towards Russia is that we must be deferential to Putin or Stalin or whomever the new czar may be.

Oh, is that what they're doing by establishing an encirclement of permanent bases around Russia, frequently on the grounds of some of Russia's very long-time trading partners? Cozying up to the 'Tsar"? :lol: :lol:

The reality is that Russia of itself runs from Petersburg to the Urals, and Archangelsk to the Caucuses. Everything else is lightly populated "frontier."

Yeh. Spend a couple days in Vladik (or Nakhodka; or Khabarovsk; or Irkutsk) and tell me that again. Lightly populated it is, but the Far East is a serious part of Russia.

I appreciate that the median American gets all of his information about the outside world from the idiot box, and don't hold that against you. Nonetheless, naught is much more irritating than a poorly-informed person, who should realize how poorly-informed he is, holding forth regardless. It's perfectly okay to be ignorant of something, or to lack adequate information to hold an opinion on it.

1. The US is establishing bases. At least that's who is irritating Moscow. The West Europeans (particularly Chirac and formerly Schroder) are holding hands with Vlad hoping to get some cheap oil.

2. I have never been to Russia. But the heart of Russia runs pretty much as I have stated (as told to me by Russians that live there). And those paranoid soothsayers who believe Russia is devolving fret that this could become the pitiful size of their once mighty state.

3. Here's another story on population:

Russia's Population Falls by 500,000

Mary, before drawing conclusions, consider a couple of things -

- All of Europe and Japan are facing forecasted leveling-off or declining populations - the US might escape this with increased migration. Russia may currently have one of the worst forecasts, but this could change.
- Since perestroika, Russia has undergone tremendous change including the upheaval of the great devaluation of the ruble in 1998. Imagine throwing out one economic system for another completely foreign to your nation's entire history. Imagine trying, in a couple of decades, to put in place contractual law, property rights, accounting practices, etc. that took the US a couple hundred years to achieve. [Could you imagine the U.S. surviving a similar change -- don't we Americans nearly start a riot when the ATM machine is found to be out of cash for an hour or so, or the scanner stops working at the checkout ?]
- the outward migration, particularly of educated and monied, Russians has slowed, perhaps reversed, in the last couple of years. The economy is booming (best stock market in the world in last 18 months) and the middle class is growing by leaps and bounds. The government is rolling in petro-monies; not necessarily a completely good think, but there is now growing monies for social services.

Bottom line - these recent changes in prosperity may be having similar dramatic impacts on the population trends you are referring to as the mid 1990s changes, just this time it might be in the positive rather than negative direction. Again, when dealing with Russia, its important to keep very up to date.

As an aside - my Russian-born step-daughter, brought to this country at 13 y.o. is now a straight-A International Baccalaureate high school senior, actively being pursued by some of the top US and UK universities. Fluent in Russian, English and French, but currently studying Chinese, she plans to get her BA and MBA here. However, she wants to then return to St. Pete or Moscow to work and live -- she believes the culture is much more open there, likes the free-wheeling business environment and a sense of much greater opportunity over the next few decades. Ah, to be young again, .... and smart.

Given that a good part of my career focused on defeating the 'Evil Empire,' these turn-of-events are unsettling.

However, its our 3 year old that we're really worried about though - half American, half Russian, and conceived on a large island just south of Florida (that's where I got my nickname, -- "American/Russian couple honeymooning in OUR country! Si, usted hace el mundo un salsa grande")



But we plan to have our little Sasha straightened out with a 6-month visist by his Russian dadushka, a former Party member --

My wife assures me that dadushka's resemblance to any historical figure is just coincidence :shock:

[quote="mgibbons19 (71)"]

Originally Posted by salsabob

Dude, she scratched your faces out. That can't be a good thing.

:lol:

Nope, the original is in fine shape. I scratched the face out for the web; didn't want the responsibility for launching another huge wave of American men traveling to St. Pete seeking a beautiful Russian wife! Those women's standards have gotten so much higher than when I was there! :shock: I didn't want the burden of all those frustrated suitors! :lol:

Life is in the timing.

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Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

I don't ever want to see the West repeat Yalta because they are wowed by the posturing of the Czar. Don't be intimidated by the Russian government.

Tsar?

Putin?!?

:lol: :lol:

You watch too much teevee. In fact, I bet you think that Khordokovskiy was a hard-working businessman who crossed the Big Bad Bear.
I'll try to find the interview that Solzhenitsyn gave recently (his first in a long, long time) right around the sentencing part of that trial, excoriating the government for not cracking down hard enough on the crooks who -- supported by Clinton's team of 'advisors' for the most part -- looted Russia during the break-up. The RF is in a state of recovery right now, not decay. Both generate a lot of dust, granted, but their trajectories couldn't be more different.

And besides, who's talking about the Russian government? The Russian people are where the interesting stories lie.

- -

Few will debate the assholocity of the Russian leadership. So what? One need not be a tsar to be a jerk. See, for ex, almost every other world leader. Why the big concern over Putin? The Russians seem to find him adequate for the time being.

And also, while I sympathize with the girly Estonians, they should really take the hint from Malinauskas, build their theme parks on the sites of the old gulag camps, quit bitching, and get on with their lives.

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Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

HAH.

The Lithuanians sure didn't like it when a Russian jet crashed within its borders in September. They also don't mind expelling Russian consulate staff on charges of espionage. :lol:

Well of course not. Who would? But do you hear them bitching on and on about the deeds of states long dead? :P

Looks like no one has an answer for me.

Oh well, you can hijack my topic now!

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Looks like no one has an answer for me.

Oh well, you can hijack my topic now!

Well, for one thing your question presupposes that WWI was a crisis war for Russia and everyone may not agree with that. I know a long time ago there was a discussion about how Russia fit into S&H theory, why don't you search through the old threads.

Originally Posted by jeffw

Originally Posted by MichaelEaston

Looks like no one has an answer for me.

Oh well, you can hijack my topic now!

Well, for one thing your question presupposes that WWI was a crisis war for Russia and everyone may not agree with that. I know a long time ago there was a discussion about how Russia fit into S&H theory, why don't you search through the old threads.

All nations fit with the theory.