Evidence for generational shift related to 4T:
A rise in the number of commercials showing parents with their college-aged kids. The kids aren't necessarily squeaky-clean, but they aren't X style either. Still a lot of commercials showing parents (particularly fathers) with their daughters.

Evidence for 4T:
NBC Saturday Night Live kicked off the show with a literal benediction from NYC's mayor and firemen. The mayor made a speech, then the camera cut to Paul Simon singing "The Boxer" -- a perfect NYC anthem about someone who loses hard but continues to fight. During the music, the camera cut to the faces of the firefighters. Amazing shot. At the close, the mayor did the "Live from New York..." shout.

The host was Reese Witherspoon, who's been playing Millennial generation parts in "Election" and "Legally Blond". The music was blues pop. The first skit was of a student-run TV show. The clothing, styles and attitude were pure Millennial without a trace of X -- very different from "Wayne's World".

Some additional, unsettling evidence -- rising gang crime in parts of Europe now being attributed to radicalized Islamic immigrant youth. The attacks, reportedly coordinated by cell phones, have been going on for a while and are designed to distrupt public events.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/arti...4/134111.shtml

From the same (conservative) source, a report of a calendar printed in Egypt, distributed in the Netherlands, showing a plane crashing in NYC for the month of September. Probably related to the 1999 EgyptAir crash.

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/arti...7/124953.shtml

It looks as though we're still in the 3T. Evidence favoring this view includes:

[1] The U.S. has not escalated to war. The action our nation is taking is response to the 911 attacks more closely resembles the Cold War than WWII. Our nation's leaders are quick to caution that this 'war' won't resemble the total war of WWII, but will instead will consist of black ops, etc.

[2] The enemy is ill-defined. Although the political leadership is united, the 'enemy' is being described as a group of incongruent cells throughout a number of nations. Despite a threat to treat the host countries of those cells no differently than the terrorists, we lack clear evidence of an all-out war against either. Again, such a reaction more strongly resembles 3T history than that of the 4T.

[3] We are still talking. 4T history is one of clear action. 3T history is one of talking.

Not to be glib, but as history goes, this event seems more of a strong steering current. It seems more likely than not that this 3T event has put us on a course for the 4T. This event has exposed a weakness in our nation, and perhaps our system of governance.

Internally, this event has generated more interest in enhanced wiretapping (like Red Scare I). People are more skeptical of others. This event has temporarily rocked equity markets, but those seems to be on the mend. Altogether, the internal situation is more analogous to a 3T winding down.

Such instances as these in our past have often spawned the 4T catalyst rather than being the catalyst itself. Clouding the picture even further is that we live in a far more global world than previous 3T eras. Thus, one question might be to ask if we should be looking for isolationism on the part of the United States, or on the part of Western Civilization as a whole? (In this case, one possibility seems to be that Western Civilization isolates itself globally from Eastern Civilization.) It seems this event, when coupled with the Persian Gulf War, might be predictive of things to come -- who knows?

Finally, it is hard to objectively analyze this event in comparison to past 4T catalysts due to the recency of the event... its horror, shock, and trauma have yet to be fully digested by us and the rest of Western civilization. The U.S., North America, Europe, and parts of Asia seem very united, but the rest of the world is not so well-defined. As a continuation of the "New World Era" described by George Bush 1, I am troubled that these events are galvanizing the first-world against the third-world and that a global event is most likely going to be the proximate cause of the 4T catalyst.

What I've read in other posts seems rational: this event has generated a period of transition from 3T to 4T. Such a transition is not inconsistent with past history. What materializes from this seems far more likely to generate the catalyst. It is appalling to think of a greater tragedy, but I'm concerned that our response (in the eyes of those who did this attack) is seen as wanting, and therefore, the next attack (God forbid) may be far more grave.

Just a thought!

j.w.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: jwhedbee on 2001-09-30 17:17 ]</font>

Mr. BoomX and Mr. Lamb! Behave yourselves when you're around adults. Sit down and be quiet. It's the 4T after all! Children should be seen and not heard. :grin:

Your endless bickering is sooo 3T...and soooo very tiresome.

No offense is intended. Just act like the adults I know you really are.

Or I'll have to tell your mama(s) !
Barbara...?
:smile:

On 2001-09-30 17:59, Susan Brombacher wrote:
Mr. BoomX and Mr. Lamb! Behave yourselves when you're around adults. Sit down and be quiet. It's the 4T after all! Children should be seen and not heard. :grin:

Your endless bickering is sooo 3T...and soooo very tiresome.

No offense is intended. Just act like the adults I know you really are.

Or I'll have to tell your mama(s) !
Barbara...?
:smile:

Maybe I'm more in 3T than I thought. I was actually having fun reading that thread! :wink:

Here's some more 4T evidence.


Jwhedbee, this has been mentioned before, but in light of your last post needs to be repeated. If (as I believe) we are now in the Fourth Turning, the current year relates to 1929, not 1941. The Crisis is just beginning, we have not reached regeneracy, not all the Crisis issues have been recognized by the public in general or by the government, and no consensus has been reached as to how to approach matters.


You should not expect the kind of response you were referring to -- escalation to war, a well-defined enemy, action rather than words -- at this point in the Crisis. In fact, you should not assume that, even once regeneracy occurs, we will be taking the kind of action you envision. The war on terrorism is by itself not even one of the major 4T issues, though it strongly relates to one of them. There is a lot of back and forth yet to come, and more surprises of an unpleasant nature, before we as a people see where we have to go. Winning a war may be necessary, but it is a long way from sufficient.

Ah, are we 3T, or are we 4T? The very qusetion seems to revolve around the notion of Humor. 3T... laughing ok, 4T... laughing not ok.

My, oh my. To laugh, or not to laugh, that is the question.

Ah shoot, I'm gonna laugh. :lol:

["BoomXer"] "Marc, or should I say Mr. Lamb?"

[Lamb] I dunno. What should I call you? Mr. Boomer? Mr. Xer? Mr. Leedy? Mrs. Leedy? I dunno.

["BoomXer"] "For a "born-again" christian you're awfully caustic and unforgiving. Maybe you need to take alittle trip down to the "North Fork" be immersed again.......It's a beautiful day, the water is probably still pretty warm?"

[Lamb] You seem to know ("North Fork") just enough about where I live and work to be dangerous, Mr. ummm whoever. But, yes it was a beautiful day here in the "red zone" today.

Perfect 3T :lol: weather.

["BoomXer"] "Now if you would have actually been living Christ's teachings - the actual, sublime psycology of His teachings - instead of living out of your obviously fragile ego......"

[Lamb] Preach it , bro!

["BoomXer"] "... if you would have maintained self-control....I would be the one looking bad now."

[Lamb] Amen, bro!

["BoomXer"] "(of course, my behavior isn't stellar either..."

[Lamb] Why not?

["BoomXer"] " - but then again, I'm not coming from a position of self-righteousness like you are Mr.Lamb)."

[Lamb] Oh. So, lower the standard... incur no pain? Ok.

["BoomXer"] "Your defensive reactions are way out of proportion. You're acting like a hurt child.....GET A GRIP!"

[Lamb] No doubt, I came from a "disfunctional family." Hence, I need to seek "my inner child." I need to "find myself." I need to "expeerienced things that most Americans such myself and Mr. Lamb have not."

Are you into "whips and chains," Mr. ummm whoever?

["BoomXer"] "Now I'll let you have the last word, say what ever you like, and then PLEASE let this thread continue with the business at hand..."

[Lamb] Last word? Mine? Here goes...

["BoomXer"] "... or you're going to end up looking like Edgar over in .....Thanx"

[Lamb] "Women & The 4th"? Ok, let's see...

Marc Lamb
Joined: Jul 31, 2001
Posts: 373
From: Frankfort, Ohio
Posted: 2001-09-13 10:47

Mr. "edgar," or whatever you are, I am a born-again Christian. I was so born-again over twenty five years ago. Everyone that has posted at this site for the past year knows that I am a born-again Christian, as I make no pretense to hide it.

Having said that, I wish to say this:

Mr. "edgar" or whatever you are, shut up.

:lol: :lol: :lol:



Somehow, Mr. ummm I dunno, Mr. Boomer? Mr. Xer? Mr. Leedy? Mrs. Leedy? I dunno, you are into "whips and chains".


:lol: :lol: :lol:


p.s. Sorry, Ms. Susan, I couldn't resist!

An article in support of 4T, from the Internet's finest site for satire of current events, IMHO, <a href=http://www.theonion.com/>The Onion</a>.

Report: Gen X Irony, Cynicism May Be Permanently Obsolete
AUSTIN, TX? According to Generation X sources, the recent attack on America may have rendered cynicism and irony permanently obsolete. "Remember the day after the attack, when all the senators were singing 'God Bless America,' arm-in-arm?" asked Dave Holt, 29. "Normally, I'd make some sarcastic wisecrack about something like that. But this time, I was deeply moved." Added Holt: "This earnestness can't last forever. Can it?"

Of course, since this is The Onion, it may be a sign we're still in 3T..... :wink:

Chris, since the Onion is technically pure farce (but *we* know better, huh), hopefully it will get even more popular as we travel down the 4T road. Escapism will be needed! (just cheaper and more domestic methods of it...). I hope it does, it's funny.

Marc, I have to share this: today on some panel of talking heads discussing *what else?*, there sat your 'friend' and mine, Cal Thomas, and guess who he defended? Bill Mahr's right to dissent and practice free speech (aka the "cowardly" remark) without having to lose advertising over it. Hope you saw it, you'd have loved it!

Brian, good article. I always wondered where they expected the gov't to be for us when needed if we devolve it. Further, accountability of past ideology is now not even mentioned to a conservative, for fear of accusal of sparking an argument (a new four letter word). Darn. I enjoy watching a good backpeddle.

On Tv I'm seeing a marked practice, among conservatives, where the Clinton Admin is blanketly always blamed for the deficiencies we now find in our gov't. But the cross debater who wants to point out that we should look further back in time and hold the Republican admins accountable too, now does it as a token agreeing with the Clinton-basher, but adding his/her assertion as an additional thing. Subtle, yet technically NOT arguing, unlike what was done regularly pre-911. 3T or 4T? Who knows? What it says more clearly to me is that everything is still very much poll driven on both sides.

Also, saw the other night on O'Reilly that he was desperately trying to make a huge deal out of CNN's practice of referring to the terrorists as "suspected terrorists" and/or "hijackers" instead of just "terrorists". Next day, Reuter's was included in the criticism. Apparently they do what CNN does. Anyway, O'Reilly was attempting this self-righteous intimation that doing this 1. somehow made CNN an apologist and not "with us"; and 2. he also was trying hard to make it seem that CNN was un-American in that they might be trying to tone down the descriptions because they have such a network of networks over there in Middle East (and employees).

Anyway, it came off as really a miss and just plain funny. O'Reilly should be ashamed; what a stupid thing if he was sincere, and how picky and trite and competitive if he wasn't and if it was meant to be picky and trite and competitive.

I surely hope we aren't about to have to sit through years of the media cat-fighting and thought-policing each other.

Pre-911, I watched them all: Fox, CNN, MSNBC, and CNBC. I now see Fox staying 3T somewhat, and CNN moving on. For now, I see CNN and MSNBC being the best chances of finding any real news (as opposed to the usual propaganda). CNN has the years of doing this kind of thing and the infrastructure over there. Plus, I think when they get told they can't know something, they may be more likely to go "oh, yeah? watch me" ( while showing an appropriate self-censure for security's sake, of course).

I will say, though, Fox's recent expose on what you can smuggle onto an airplane was good. However, I got the distinct impression among their talking heads they wanted some really deep reforms in airline security, so was the expose ideologically motivated? IMO, yes. But it was still interesting, and since I agree we need more of a El-Am (heh) approach, I liked it.

CNN's two expose's Beneath the Veil and Soldiers of God were excellent and much more in depth and representative of 'hard news'. Could one say they promote the "What have we done wrong?" thinking? Yes. But they could also have just represented "the other side" mentality, and frankly we need that. We've suddenly had an important and very big history assignment thrust upon us. I hope everyone does their homework. :smile:

Wow, Barbara. Amazing what perspective does.

I totally see Fox as being 4T and the others like CNN staying entirely too 3T for my taste. All this banning of flag lapel pins and refusing to call a spade a spade and "we must stay totally objective, even if every American lies dead in the streets" attitude seems so PC and so 3T, whereas Fox has been openly disdainful of anything that smacks of disloyalty or lack of patriotism, something I equate with the reporting I've read and seen from WWII. They've also been very critical of organizations which have tried to stop employees from displaying flags (like Sears).

Gee, Ms. Lis, I was going to post the same exact thought. Now I don't have to. Thanks.

Lis:
You make an excellent point re: Fox TV. I also noticed on Fox a graphic thanking their sponsors for "staying with them in this time of need."
What was telling was how the graphic opened: "Our leaders have told us that returning to normal is our highest priority." or words to that effect. Referring to politicians as "our leaders" without a hint of irony is a new one.

Selling Private Ryan by Mr.
Nicholas Confessore takes a look at the Hero cult in the September 24 number of The American Prospect, bring hope that my father and the people like him in WII will be allowed the status of human being rather than just another Brand to be marketed. They deserve the truth about themselves and we do as well.

That this is still allowed argues for 3T. HTH

All this banning of flag lapel pins and refusing to call a spade a spade and "we must stay totally objective, even if every American lies dead in the streets" attitude seems so PC and so 3T, whereas Fox has been openly disdainful of anything that smacks of disloyalty or lack of patriotism, something I equate with the reporting I've read and seen from WWII.

One more time.


We're not in World War II. We're in the first year of the Great Depression. We haven't reached regeneracy. Insisting on toeing a patriotic line and squelching dissent is premature.


There is a lot of dissent necessary before we can adopt a unified stance. A unified stance on what? And Lis, much of what you're decrying as 3T or PC is just plain good journalism. (Something Fox isn't famous for, I might add.) Considering the circus-and-scandal atmosphere of supposedly serious news reporting in recent years, a return to standards of good journalism is to be welcomed.


A number of people here seem to be making the same mistake that Strauss and Howe have made, equating elements of the new values regime from the last Awakening -- in this specific case, questioning of war -- with Third Turning dysfunction. But this war MUST be questioned, because it connects with elements of our own foreign policy that are themselves dysfunctional. We don't dare approach it in the same black and white mindset that we did World War II, because while the immediate enemy may be the moral equivalent of the Nazis, they are speaking for large numbers of people who have a legitimate grievance against us. The terrorists' own grievances aren't legitimate, but many people in many countries side with the terrorists because their grievances are.


We can't just beat them. We also have to clean up our act, or this will happen again and again until we do. We cannot go on supporting brutal tyrannies abroad that oppress their own people so our companies can get cheap labor or buy cheap raw materials. We rule the world, and in far too many cases we rule most unjustly.


No moral dilemmas of that sort faced us in World War II. The only thing we were doing wrong that led to the war was isolationism. It wasn't the same.


When we have, as a people, recognized the triple danger we face, not only from war and the breakdown of the international order, but also from the rickety nature of the global economy that derives from its gross injustices, and the head-on collision with limited resources, then we will have reached regeneracy and then we can afford single-mindedness. But we're not there yet.

Marc, it seems to me that you are saying that we are still in the 3T, because the *mood* remains 3T, whereas others are saying it is the 4T because the mood is 4T now after 911.

As you know I think we are in the 4T, but I also think that the mood is still very much 3T (so you might say I partially agree with you here). I've also bet on this mood. What about you? Are you back in, how far? If I believed it was 3T to the extent you appear to I would be fully invested right now instead of my ~70% invested stance.

I think your asset allocation will provide a better indication of what you *really* think than the little laugh symbols: i.e. did you, or are you going to jump in with both feet (3T) or are you afraid of further declines (4T).

**************************************
Here is the 4T mood scenario: From here the market can fall a long, long way--its grossly overvalued. The bottom would be in the ~700 range on the S&P and even lower if the recession is more severe than 1990.

This will absolutely happen IF the secular bear market pyschology (4T mood) takes hold earlier than is typical (which a war may, or may not, do).

Here is the 3T mood scenario: The bottom is in now. There may be a retest in October but after that there will be an uptrend. Although the economy will be worse (unemployment will rise) over the following 18 months the market will not go further down. We will see mutiples on the S&P500 in the mid 40's as earnings trough, keeping the S&P comfortably above 1000. As the economy begins to recover the market will rise reaching the general vicinity of the last peak by 2005. In this case investments in the index today will handily beat alternatives.

My bet is we are still in the 3T mood and this bottom scenario will play out initially. By 2004, I believe that the 4T transition will become evident and we will see a development of the secular bear market pyschology. Strongly growing earnings will mostly serve to lower multiples and the market will fail to reach new highs in constant dollar terms. Those who buy *now* will be rewarded, but those who bought stocks in 1999 or 2000 will see no return. Dent's Dow 35,000 by 2010, or Kadlec's Dow 100,000 by 2020 won't happen.

What are you betting on with your money?

Very good questions, Michael Alexander.

I am not gauging the "mood" right now at all as a barometer of whether or not we have turned into the fourth. I'm just having some fun with it here. Where I put my money on the issue of 3T/4t?, is in the numbers.

Click here:
http://www.fourthturning.com/forums/...=199&forum=6&9


But speaking of putting my money where my mouth, er writing is... As of today, I have not gotten back in the market yet. As my business has rebounded from last year's blahs, I have some funds in which to invest. In fact, this week I will calling my broker to do just that. Where I go, and with how much depends upon a lot of factors I have yet to zone in on. And while I am far from bullish at this point, I am convince that this event is going to prolong the 3T further than might have gone otherwise.

There are lots of reasons for why I think this. I will post them as time allows.

p.s. Once I dive, I'll email you with what I'm doing. Ok?

An excellent treatment of the types and roots of terrorism.


Excerpts:

That said, we must distinguish between: irrational terrorism motivated by intense hatred and enmity toward the United States and nurtured by blind religious zeal (Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda network belongs to this category); and defiant terrorism, motivated by long-term, dismal and debilitating socioeconomic conditions (Hamas, Al Gama's al-Islamiyya and some other Jihad groups belong to this group). The differing agendas of these two groups call for different approaches. . . .


The war against terrorism is also an ideological war. We won the Cold War largely because of our values and our way of life. We can win this war only when America is seen as caring, even-handed and willing to engage in rebuilding their torn societies. This is the only way we can enlist Arab and Muslim governments to work with us without courting tremendous public backlash.


Indeed, only when there is a real hope and opportunity for the millions of despondent young men will they reject terrorism and martyrdom to embrace the prospect for a better future.

On 2001-10-01 05:56, Lis '54 wrote:
Wow, Barbara. Amazing what perspective does.

I totally see Fox as being 4T and the others like CNN staying entirely too 3T for my taste. All this banning of flag lapel pins and refusing to call a spade a spade and "we must stay totally objective, even if every American lies dead in the streets" attitude seems so PC and so 3T, whereas Fox has been openly disdainful of anything that smacks of disloyalty or lack of patriotism, something I equate with the reporting I've read and seen from WWII. They've also been very critical of organizations which have tried to stop employees from displaying flags (like Sears).

I cannot improve on Brian's reply, so I won't, as I agree and I'll let him speak for me.

I'll just add that, yes, perspective is amazing. Me, I see Fox's *return to normal*, as Kevin references, as (3T) in as much as representing the Red Zone, whereas I see CNN starting to evolve to position themselves toward both Zones, and more to the point, digging for news.

Marc, I though you had pulled out of the market earlier this year. Aren't those funds still available? I put another chunk 60-70K in on 19 Sept and was going to buy more when it dropped to my next buy point. It didn't (at least so far).

For me it boils down thusly: 3T mood I retire at 50, 4T mood, 55. So you can see what I WANT to happen :smile:

Our office just had its first evacuation since the 911 attack. Someone looked out the window of our 10th floor office and saw fire trucks outside and people milling outside. Despite the lack of any fire alarms or bells, we all just evacuated, no questioned asked.

After we'd been outside for about 5 minutes, we found out that it was a restaurant fire from our neighboring building and the fire fighters said it was safe for those in our building to go back to work.

ABCNews article on response of Millenials to 911
including quotes from Neil Howe. (although the author of the article insists on drawing parallels to 1941 rather than 1929)

On 2001-10-01 07:27, Virgil K. Saari wrote:
Selling Private Ryan by Mr.
Nicholas Confessore takes a look at the Hero cult in the September 24 number of The American Prospect, bring hope that my father and the people like him in WII will be allowed the status of human being rather than just another Brand to be marketed. They deserve the truth about themselves and we do as well.

That this is still allowed argues for 3T. HTH

Excellent article, Virgil. I was struck by the phrase "the academic as entrepreneur" (about Ambrose). Also, this passage, with I think is your whole point: "Brokaw professes to be "in awe" of his subjects, but it's hard to see how his brand of cheap praise does them any justice. Heroism and virtue properly reside with individuals, not generations; casting the men and women of the World War II era as a monolithic Greatest Generation strips them of their agency--and of the capacity for sacrifice. If everyone is a hero, after all, then no one is a hero."

I think this guy has been reading my posts here the 4T.com.

Mr. Donald R. Shaffer reasons that "The Osama bin Laden of 1916," when compared to the Osama bin Laden of today, draws interesting parallels to a time when the Progressive generation commanded a 30% share of national leadership.

Click here:
http://www2.h-net.msu.edu/~hns/artic...t/091901a.html

Pull Quote:
"Forgotten in the comparisons to December 7, 1941, is the date of an earlier foreign assault on the United States. On March 9, 1916, Mexican warlord Pancho Villa and his men raided the border town of Columbus, N.M. They stole horses and guns, and killed 17 Americans. Before last week, it was the last American blood shed by foreigners on continental U.S. soil aside from the 1993 bombing of the World Trade Center. It also made Pancho Villa as reviled a figure among Americans in 1916 as Osama bin Laden is 85 years later"

Heh, Marc. :grin:

Very thought-provoking article, though. To be honest, I've avoided actually going with your theory of where we are because if it does have legs, then we have a heckuva long way to go to the next 4T! And while it would seem to me to be more desirable to end my life in 3T-ness, if we were now still in 3T with as long as you say before the 4T, this present spiraling is not fun. Not to mention how cultish or conspiracy theory-like posters on this site would look, many if not most believing without a doubt we have now triggered the 4T.

But none of that matters as to whether you are correct in your thinking. Wish my parents were still alive so I could ask if they felt anything like this for an unbearably long amount of time. If you are correct, we may be see-sawing quite consistantly. Dramamine shares should go up. :wink:

Also, I would like to nominate Brian Rush for prez!!

Aaaaaaggghhhh!!!!


Bite yo' tongue, dude!

Bill Mahr (Politically Incorrect)being run out of town for his "cowards" remark....and today's Doonesbury..Boobsie doesn't care what Madonna eats for breakfast anymore. 4T?