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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 10







Post#226 at 10-05-2001 10:44 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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More evidence.

Today a 26-year old man in Florida died of anthrax, which authorities believe may be linked to terrorism, as anthrax is exceedingly rare in the US today.

Perhaps they are crying wolf too soon, but it does seem pretty ominous.







Post#227 at 10-05-2001 11:03 PM by richt [at Folsom, CA joined Sep 2001 #posts 190]
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3T: "No Fear"

4T: "Know Fear"







Post#228 at 10-05-2001 11:05 PM by richt [at Folsom, CA joined Sep 2001 #posts 190]
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Actually, for Gen X,

we can preface that with:

2T: "No Fair"







Post#229 at 10-05-2001 11:31 PM by Pstymie [at Ohio joined Sep 2001 #posts 5]
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On 2001-10-05 14:44, cbailey wrote:
Where is..... and what ever happened to.. Dick Cheney? Is it evidence of a 4T that Cheney can just disappear and nobody mentions it? It feels like more of The Unraveling.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: cbailey on 2001-10-05 14:53 ]</font>
cbailey
apparently there was a sighting of Cheney today.In a recent White House press conference, one Brit reporter asked about him, but no follow up questions. Gossip says that Karl Rove was in a snit over Cheney's lack of self-deprecation when he did the Sunday morn shows right after WTC, so the Veep had to go hide at his desk and let Blair do the tough talk. On the weekly news round-up on Diane Rehm today, a statement was made that Cheney would be sighted shortly since his absence was now noticed and commented on in the press. Sho nuf, there he was in a photo op a couple of hours later. Voila







Post#230 at 10-06-2001 12:26 AM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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Interesting about Cheney,Pstymie. He was so important to the Administration and now not a peep.

My 24 year old daughter has received 2...count em..2...emails concerning 911 and the war on terrorism, while her Boomer parents have received scores. One of hers was a plea for peace, and the other a photo of the WTTs. She reads ours, and thinks boomers have gone mad.








Post#231 at 10-06-2001 01:05 AM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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On 2001-10-05 20:05, HopefulCynic68 wrote:
Anecdotal evidence, make of it what you will:

I was sitting in a restaurant, earlier this evening, and I overheard a young woman, probably 20 years old plus or minus two, and she was joking with her table mates that she'd join up with Osama bin Laden if he'd pay her tuition.

I'm reminded of a line from the movie "Gone With The Wind," in which Scarlet O'Hara says, "Today I'd dance with Abe Lincoln himself."







Post#232 at 10-06-2001 10:03 AM by jwhedbee [at Kansas City, MO joined Sep 2001 #posts 4]
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On 2001-10-05 22:26, cbailey wrote:
Interesting about Cheney,Pstymie. He was so important to the Administration and now not a peep.

My 24 year old daughter has received 2...count em..2...emails concerning 911 and the war on terrorism, while her Boomer parents have received scores. One of hers was a plea for peace, and the other a photo of the WTTs. She reads ours, and thinks boomers have gone mad.

Well, that's evidence of a 4T according to the book...boomers gone mad, that is. My only question might have been, "Was there ever any doubt they've gone mad?" It still doesn't "feel" 4T, though.







Post#233 at 10-06-2001 10:47 AM by Kevin1952 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 39]
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Article posted on boston.com re: Intimidation/Disciplining of Professors Who Criticize U.S. Policy. Interesting read.







Post#234 at 10-06-2001 02:15 PM by Pstymie [at Ohio joined Sep 2001 #posts 5]
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hmmm, cbailey, i feel left out of the e-mail circuit. all i ever get is a bazillion pc attacks by HAI and Nimba as i am reading the daily international papers. right now i have about 200 quarantined. anyone else been getting hit alot lately?







Post#235 at 10-06-2001 05:33 PM by Child of Socrates [at Cybrarian from America's Dairyland, 1961 cohort joined Sep 2001 #posts 14,092]
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On 2001-10-04 16:17, Brian Rush wrote:
Here's something that, while not large-scale or earthshaking, is still quite strong evidence that we're in a Fourth Turning.


There is now a possibility -- far from a certainty, but a possibility nonetheless -- that I may vote for George W. Bush in 2004.


We have been struck with the first stages of two of the three Crisis issues now. In response to the terrorist attack, Bush has abandoned his former isolationist stance and become an internationalist, and he has approached the war with a compassion, wisdom, and restraint I would never have expected of him. Score one.


In response to the recession, he has resisted the urge to respond in knee-jerk Republican fashion and instead called for a stimulus package that includes substantial increases in aid to the unemployed. Score two.


Both these actions show that he is capable of thinking outside the box. I am very pleasantly surprised.


What would clinch it for me? A response to resource shortages that abandons his oil-company ties and seeks fossil-fuel independence. If he does that, he's got my vote.


The fact that I am even considering a vote for that man shows that something very fundamental has changed.
Me, too. I was infuriated by the E2K debacle and until 9/11 was basically sitting around on my butt waiting for 2004 to arrive so that I could vote to "Evict the Resident."

How things have changed. The man definitely has leadership qualities that I never would have guessed he had. He may be the best candidate out there in 2004, particularly if this Crisis deepens.

But I doubt that the Texas oilman in him is going to go away that easily, Brian.

Three years is a long time.

Kiff '61, brooding in the Blue Zone.







Post#236 at 10-06-2001 05:44 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Anyone been in a Toys R Us lately? Is it my imagination, or are there a heck of a lot more GI Joes?







Post#237 at 10-06-2001 10:13 PM by Tom Mazanec [at NE Ohio 1958 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,511]
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Plain Dealer Sat Oct 6
Page C3: "But Nikki Young, assistant manager at the museum store...said that despite a decrease in business there is one positive change - customer's attitudes "Generally people are in such a hurry. But now people are more kind than usual."
Page A9: SURVEY FINDS MOST AMERICANS FAVOR REQUIRING CITIZENS TO CARRY ID CARD
Page E11: Funky Winkerbean comic by Tom Batiuk "Who'd have thought that the school's most self-absorbed girl would rise to the occasion like Cindy has?"
Page E3: "69 percent of American adults say they have been praying more since the terrorist attacks."
Slowly tilting world...


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tom Mazanec on 2001-10-06 20:14 ]</font>

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tom Mazanec on 2001-10-06 20:21 ]</font>







Post#238 at 10-06-2001 11:00 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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On 2001-10-06 20:13, Tom Mazanec wrote:
Plain Dealer Sat Oct 6

Page A9: SURVEY FINDS MOST AMERICANS FAVOR REQUIRING CITIZENS TO CARRY ID CARD
One of the things I like about Bush, so far, is that he hasn't given in to this particular bad idea!







Post#239 at 10-06-2001 11:09 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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On 2001-10-05 22:26, cbailey wrote:
Interesting about Cheney,Pstymie. He was so important to the Administration and now not a peep.

My 24 year old daughter has received 2...count em..2...emails concerning 911 and the war on terrorism, while her Boomer parents have received scores. One of hers was a plea for peace, and the other a photo of the WTTs. She reads ours, and thinks boomers have gone mad.

I don't know about emails, but boomer-age columnists and radio/TV personalities are starting to sound unnervingly close to the Strauss & Howe prediction of how Boomers would act at 4T time.

I keep hearing/reading phrases like 'total war' and 'nuke 'em till they glow' from commentators that are usually calm and serious. In some cases, I get a sense that they're almost relieved that it's finally here, whatever 'it' may turn out to be.

Don't get me wrong, anger is perfectly understandable, but this is something else. I heard one Boomer-age radio personality, usually very sensible, saying that we need to atom bomb Afghanistan, and that this war would consist of two hits, our first strike and the sound of 'them' hitting the floor.

Never mind that atom bombs dropped in Afghanistan would be perilously close to the borders of China, India, Pakistan, and Russia, all themselves nuclear-armed. Never mind that even with atom bombs, you still need some specific targets to hit. Never mind little problems like uniting half the world against us, and radicalizing the non-fanatical Islamics.

It's as if these sorts of practical considerations don't even enter their heads!







Post#240 at 10-06-2001 11:19 PM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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In some cases, I get a sense that they're almost relieved that it's finally here, whatever 'it' may turn out to be.

Oh, yes. I know the feeling. And yes, it's a relief, because now there's a sense we may, finally, after nearly two decades of paralysis and immobility, be able to get things moving again and institute some decisive action, along the lines of whatever agenda one is trying to gray-champion.


You bet. I think our whole generation has been looking forward to this moment, consciously or not, for the last ten years, if not twenty.


However, with respect to the specific suggestion of nuking Afghanistan, I'm with you. And I think most of us are. Political commentators sometimes say things for shock value. Thankfully, the Boomer in the White House is the only one that matters on that question, and he displays no inclination to go postal. At least, not that way.







Post#241 at 10-07-2001 02:05 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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http://www.alternet.org/story.html?StoryID=11656

<font color="blue">Environmentalists Re-check Priorities, Strategy After 9-11
J.A. Savage, AlterNet
October 5, 2001

Has attacking the president's environmental and consumer policies become an Act of Sedition? In the wake of September 11, many green organizations fear being tainted as insubordinate or, worse, dread that their pro-environmental actions will be perceived as some insidious move to thwart the underpinnings of a resilient America.

Immediately after the attacks, Greenpeace canceled its 30th anniversary celebration. Sierra Club called off a board meeting and a national members' meeting. The Sierra Club also stopped all mass communications -- advertising, phone banks and mailings. The Environmental Working Group and Public Interest Research Groups (PIRGs) postponed indefinitely a national report on toxic byproducts of chlorination in drinking water.

"We've been very aggressive in criticizing the president's policies," said Sierra Club western regional director, Carl Zichella. "But attacking the president would appear to be a disloyal thing to do. It's not a time for disunity. We're keeping the level of discord down."

Known far more for in-your-face flamboyancy than respect for the powers that be, even Greenpeace USA is toning down its activities. Greenpeace's Danny Kennedy demurred, "Tactically we have changed. In a period of mourning, some things may not be appropriate."

"Even though Frank Murkowski and other Republican Senators are trying to take the opportunity to [push their agendas], we're not going to do that," Kennedy continued. "We're not going to be opportunists."

A similar sentiment was voiced by many environmental leaders. Dan Jacobsen of California's PIRG said, "We don't think we should advance our public policy by using the terrorist attacks."

However, a few Republicans' post-terrorist moves have provoked environmentalists to push back. Right after the terrorist attacks, Congressmember Don Young (R-AK) was quoted that he thought eco-terrorists might be responsible for the damage.

"Your appropriation of an unprecedented national tragedy to highlight your anti-environmental political agenda is beyond shameless," responded Ken Cook, president of the Environmental Working Group. "At a time when government, religious and community leaders from across the political spectrum were joining together to assure the American people, promote calm and restore confidence, you alone sought to direct public fears at fellow Americans."

Additionally, environmental and consumer groups are quietly strengthening their resolve, particularly on energy issues. Many organizations have pointed out that energy policy isn't just an environmental problem and an economic influence, it is also a national security concern. Over-reliance on fossil fuels, they say, has drawn us into conflicts in the oil-rich Middle East. Furthermore, the more the nation relies on renewable energy -- wind, solar, geothermal -- the less of a terrorist target pipelines and storage facilities can be. And if nuclear plants are shut down in favor of renewable energy, those high-profile and highly lethal targets would be far less appealing to terrorists.

Greenpeace is more active than ever in energy-related work. "We are all the more gung-ho on renewables," said Kennedy. "For instance, a system of distributed generation [where numerous small, local sources of energy would take the place of huge, centralized power plants] is a lot less vulnerable to this sort of attack."

Other green groups took a similar approach. "As Americans, we must now join together in shaping a strong response to terrorism," wrote John Adams, National Resources Defense Council president, in a letter to NRDC members. "For NRDC, that means advocating policies that will immediately begin reducing our nation's dependence on oil." Adams went on to call oil consumption an "Achilles heel," and added that an energy future that reduces "this dangerous addiction to oil is our only hope for getting us on a self-reliant energy path toward lasting national and environmental security."

The Sierra Club has been active in the past two weeks trying to thwart attempts to use the attacks as an excuse to open up the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil drilling. Republican Oklahoma Senator James Imhofe is trying to attach riders to defense authorization bills HR 4 and S 389 to that effect. "Drilling in the Arctic wouldn't work half as well as efficiency measures," said Sierra Club's Zichella. "I hope people will continue to conserve, even though the crisis is arguably close to being over."

However, the Sierra Club, more than any other high-profile environmental group, is taking a low profile after the attacks. "We're waiting for right moment," Zichella explained. "We'll get back to Dick Cheney's energy task force. But now is not the right time to do that. If we threw brickbats [at the president] people would turn on us. If we become ineffective because we're insensitive to the public tone [we lose]. The public won't stay with us."

But Nettie Hoge, executive director of The Utility Reform Network (TURN), worries that green organizations will back off so much that their issues will be swallowed up.

"We [TURN] decided not to change our priorities in the wake of the World Trade Center," said Hoge. "I am more worried about the opposite problem. That is, that so much attention is being focused on WTC and its emotional and political aftermath that very important issues will be less compelling. Do you think the US Senate has the heart to push back as much as we know they should on the Bush-Cheney energy plan? Do you believe that the California energy crisis is getting the same type of media attention and analysis as it would if the tragedy had not happened? I fear we could overlook very important analytical tasks in our fervor for security."
</font>
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
intp '82er







Post#242 at 10-07-2001 04:45 PM by The Grey Badger [at Albuquerque, NM joined Sep 2001 #posts 8,876]
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More signs of the times: last night I went to the theater to see Smokey Joes's Cafe, a 50s-fest that should have ended in a song about rock'n'roll and whose penulitmate song, "Stand By Me," was supposed to refer to the couples who were courting & breaking up throughout. Instead it was done with the cast in a line facing front, very Shoulder to Shoulder, followed by Rita Coolidge calling for a mass singing of God Bless America. 4T or not 4T, that is the question? ;{







Post#243 at 10-07-2001 07:51 PM by KaiserD2 [at David Kaiser '47 joined Jul 2001 #posts 5,220]
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Well, the war is on, as of this afternoon. Secretary Rumsfeld's emphasis on our humanitarian intervention is certainly Silent. I am more concerned by his statement that this is the only way to stop terrorism, to go to the source.

I am not so sure. In this community I have to say what I think: that I think the negative political consequences of this in the Moslem world will be serious, perhaps devastating, involving at least one, maybe more, Fundamentalist states, and thus, quite possibly, more havens for terrorism. We can't go back to where we were before 9/11 by dropping bombs or ousting the Taliban, I'm afraid. But I have to hope I'm wrong.

I have been very impressed by Brian lately, but I have to say, Boomer to Boomer, that I do NOT share the "this is it" euphoria AT ALL. (Rather odd, since I've always been more of an establishment Boomer than he is. . .) Thanks to the Missionaries, Lost, and GIs, I now feel, I had 17 years to grow up calmly (if very immaturely--see my post on movies, which I'm about to do, about Hearts of Atlantis), and 35 years of Awakening/Unravelling to think. Also to raise my kids. (My marriage didn't work out but that wasn't their fault.) I think I got an awful lot out of them, and people around me did too. And now, I feel launched on a most uncertain struggle--even though I'm fortunate enough to understand why it's happening.

I have never been able to believe ina single deity controlling events. I'm more taken with the Greek concept, where if one god is on your case, another one is likely to do you a favor. So far the US has apparently had the balance of the fates on our side. I hope our luck may continue, and that we can find more wisdom than I can see right now.









Post#244 at 10-07-2001 08:10 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Mr. John Keegan argues in the 10 October 2001 number of the Telegraph (UK) that this War on Terror is a clash of cultures in "In this war of civilisations, the West will prevail". It is Western "relentlessness" versus the Islamic-Oriental "raid" that will come out on top. But in a globalized Net Work Culture is the "raid" so really out of place?


Keegan article via Free Republic here







Post#245 at 10-07-2001 08:48 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Interesting article, Mr. Saari.

Quote:

"Samuel Huntington, the Harvard political scientist, outlined in a famous article written in the aftermath of the Cold War his vision of the next stage hostilities would take. Rejecting the vision of a New World Order, proposed by President Bush senior, he insisted that mankind had not rid itself of the incubus of violence, but argued that it would take the form of conflict between cultures, in particularly between the liberal, secular culture of the West and the religious culture of Islam. Huntington's "clash of civilisations" was widely discussed, though it was not taken seriously by some. Since September 11 it has been taken very seriously indeed."


Comment (Predictable coming from me):

What we are seeing is the natural next step to the so-called "culture wars". That is, on a global scale. Similar to the beginning of the twenties when the big "crack down" on "liberal culture" was attempted here in the USA. It failed badly. And always does. Liberal culture is best left to fizzle itself out, as, just like conservative culture, it always does.

Freedom and liberty are always held captive to...

Ah, figure it out yourself. :smile:







Post#246 at 10-07-2001 11:44 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Forgive me, folks, but I am not going to let this guy get a pass here. Read the following quotes, verbatim, posted at this very thread:


KaiserD2
Joined: Jul 22, 2001
Posts: 35
From: David Kaiser '47
Posted: 2001-09-28 14:26
"I could change my mind later but I think the evidence is overwhelming that this is it. I agree with Jenny, by the way, the Condit's appontment is hardly a sign of a 3T. Sorry, Bill, but your desire to hang various parts of Condit and Clinton's anatomy out in public was rather 3T on your part. ."

KaiserD2
Joined: Jul 22, 2001
Posts: 35
From: David Kaiser '47
Posted: 2001-10-07 17:51
"I have been very impressed by Brian lately, but I have to say, Boomer to Boomer, that I do NOT share the "this is it" euphoria AT ALL."

Again, let me pull the quotes out so that they are clear:

From: David Kaiser '47
Posted: 2001-09-28 14:26
"I think the evidence is overwhelming that this is it."

From: David Kaiser '47
Posted: 2001-10-07 17:51
"that I do NOT share the "this is it" euphoria AT ALL."





From Marc Lamb to David Kaiser '47:


Give it up, pal. :evil:







Post#247 at 10-08-2001 09:29 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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O wonder, oh <a href="http://www.foreignaffairs.org/articles/vanham0901.html"Brand New World</a>.


The War on Terror might just be a marketing ploy. The State has become a Brand argues
Mr. Peter van Ham in the Sept/Oct 2001 number of Foreign Affairs in the article "The Rise of the Brand State: The Post Modern Politics of Image and Reputation". Is Mr. Osama bin Laden a merchant of a generic idea?

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Virgil K. Saari on 2001-10-08 07:30 ]</font>







Post#248 at 10-08-2001 10:08 AM by scott 63 [at Birmingham joined Sep 2001 #posts 697]
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I was sitting at a family function yesterday and we were discussing the fate of my nephew who just finished journalism school, moved to Denver and has no apparant plans of getting a "real" job. I jokingly suggested that he could always enlist (my brother just retired Air Force). My sister's response was, "That's not even funny!" This followed on the heals of a lunch in which my wife and her sister worried about members of a close family of marines.

I see two possible Xer positions on military conflict: Save-yourself-and-your-family-no matter-what and Life-is-messy-lets-get-the-job-done. I find myself subscribing to the latter. Are there no things worth risking your lifestyle or safety? I suspect that a weariness with selfishness over selflessness will be what drives a 4T but from the attitudes toward sacrifice I observed this weekend, it takes a while to turn that corner.







Post#249 at 10-08-2001 10:20 AM by scott 63 [at Birmingham joined Sep 2001 #posts 697]
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On 2001-10-07 17:51, KaiserD2 wrote:

I am not so sure. In this community I have to say what I think: that I think the negative political consequences of this in the Moslem world will be serious, perhaps devastating, involving at least one, maybe more, Fundamentalist states, and thus, quite possibly, more havens for terrorism. We can't go back to where we were before 9/11 by dropping bombs or ousting the Taliban, I'm afraid. But I have to hope I'm wrong.
I have to agree with you, David. Americans are completely oblivious to the possibility that our Nation's actions might influence international attitudes toward us. By dismissing terrorists as madmen we doom ourselves to misjudging their motives and underestimating their abilities. This has been our history with Iraq. I saw a piece on CSPAN-2 describing how the spread of satelite dishes throughout the Muslim world in the last few years has allowed millions to view video (propaganda?) of the Palestinian conflict and Iraqi conditions. The speaker (Larry Goodson) also related how Madelaine Albright responded to a query concerning the possible deaths of thousands of Iraqi children with, "That is a price we will have to be willing to pay." Tell me how THAT will play in Pakistan! Ill chosen words and cowboy rhetoric will come back to haunt us.

I know! I know! Understanding the motivations of criminals is soooo 3T! It's tough to wage total war against sympathetic characters.







Post#250 at 10-08-2001 11:24 AM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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Uh, Marc, did you miss the word "euphoria" in that second quote from David Kaiser? Those two statements were not contradictory. Both of them were saying the 4T has begun; the second one was saying he isn't happy about it.


David, I could perhaps wish that this thing hadn't started with a war. But there is so much in our institutions and way of life that needs an overhaul that I'm happy to see anything shake us out of our recent complacency. The silver lining of this mess is that it will push us into the Crisis mood and accustom us to taking decisive action; it will put an end to Third Turning apathy. And we need that, desperately.


We need it because the global economy is based on the same top-heavy income distribution that characterized the U.S. economy in the 1920s, with the same result. We need it because our consumption of global resources is unsustainable. We need it because we have an antiquated international order that will not work alongside today's technology (and obviously, that means information and communication technology, which facilitated the growth of the al-Qaeda network and the operation of 9/11, not just nuclear weapons). All of these things must be changed.


I suspect we are heading for setbacks and recalculations of the sort you describe. That's normal for a Crisis era, and is a morphology point I've postulated in the past and called the "fulcrum" -- the point when we realize that restoration of the old order is no longer possible, and a new one must be crafted. We could not remain as nearly-independent states without the British umbrella but had to craft a stronger central government through the Constitution. We could not restore the union with slavery, but had to restore a different one without it. We could not take temporary measures to push the economy back on track, but had to make fundamental revisions to the capital/labor power balance and then provide a massive jump-start.


In this case, we are not going to be able to wipe out a few terrorist cells and then go complacently back to business as usual, with our foreign policy wholly subordinate to American business interests. Although some people realize that, I don't think the country as a whole has come to grips with it yet; thus, the fulcrum, like the regeneracy, lies ahead still. There will be dark days.


But I knew there were dark days ahead before I ever knew about the saeculum theory. What the theory has provided for me is an awareness that with the dark days comes the change of heart that allows genuine progress. So let them come, since come they must, and come as well the wisdom that arises only from pain.
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