On 2002-01-16 21:44, madscientist wrote:
Perhaps, we should've kept the Taliban in power. :lol:

Well, in all seriousness, when the Taliban came to power 1996, they were considered to be an improvement on the warlords.

The term invariant 22 year average means that the turning length remains centered at about 22 years over time. That is if you did a moving average over the centuries this average would be close to 22 years over the long run. Your use of the power peaks is an example of what I call a marker. You do not simply add on a fixed cycle length to the last cycle to project the future. Instead you wait until an event (in this case the Silent generational power share to wane) before looking for the turning change. In the same way I waited for the stock market to peak and am still waiting for reduced price to break below their 1998 lows.

But the mechanism you are relying upon to give meaning to the generational power share is critically dependent on generational length being about 22 years long. It is invalid for 27 years gens and for 18 year gens.

Here is the reason. With 22 year gens the age at which a generation reaches max power is about 2.3 gens. The numbers of a given generation at the time of power should peak about when this age is reached by the mid point of the generation. Thus max power should be reached about 2.8 turnings (2.3+0.5) after the start of the birth turning for the generation of interest, assuming 22 years. Thus, for the Awakening gen whose birth years start in 1701 we should look for the peak in 1701+2.8*22 = 1763. This was done for all the gens after 1701 (see table).

http://csf.colorado.edu/authors/Alex...e/Maxpower.htm

The predictions made for peak year made using this method are pretty good. We can also predict the turning in which the peak occurs. If we add 2.8 gens to the beginning of a gen we should be close to the end of the turning two down from the turning we start with. For example, if we are talking about a prophet gen, like the Transcendental, who are associated with a High, we should expect that the max power date to occur late in the unraveling (2.8 turnings up from 1792).

However if we have 18 year gens, then the age of max power is about 2.8 gens and after adding 0.5 gens we should look for the turning of max power up 3.3 turnings. That is, a prophet's power should peak early during the Crisis. The table shows predictions made using both methods. Up to the Lost gen, the 22 year method worked 8 out of 9 times, with the only failure directly due to the Civil War anomaly. Starting with the GI's the 18 year model has started to work. I note that is is only after the GI gen that 18 year S&H gens become the norm. The average length of the Awakening through GI gen was 22.4 years, consistent with the 22 year gen assumption sued to make the turning prediction. The historical trend now suggests that 2005, the predicted peak year for the Boomers should occur in the early years of a Crisis.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Mike Alexander '59 on 2002-01-20 14:35 ]</font>

On 2002-01-19 14:07, Marc S. Lamb wrote:

And two anomalies in just 130 years, folks, blows a hole large enough to send that theory to the bottom of the Atlantic faster than the one that ripped Titanic. :smile:

Not necessarily so. The Cycles require so much time to run through that even two anomalies would not be sufficient to disprove it, just as the arrival of a 4T in time a few years from now would not conclusively prove it.

After 911, I thought we were probably heading into 4T, because I expected the Boom to muscle the Silent out early. The attempt has been made, but so far the Silent have dug in and repelled the Boom advance.

Thus, I'm now all but certain that we remain in 3T. I underestimated the Silent.

BTW, Mark, I agree about the key to the matter being the Generation in the upper power position. I just suspected that that Boom was about to jump the turnstile, so to speak, and it looks like I was wrong.



<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: HopefulCynic68 on 2002-01-20 13:23 ]</font>

Hello people. first time crawling out of
the wood pile.

Some time back I bought a book called The WPA
guide to 1939's Arizona. It looked interesting because I am an Arizonan and I
thought that it would tell me something of
the flavor and history of my home state. The
book was facinating and I enjoyed reading it.
However, as I was poring over some particular
passage it struck me that this book (originally published in 1940) was written by
workers of the Writers' Program of the Work
Progects Administration (WPA) some many years
into the last 4T.

At that point I began to look at this bit of
writing in a new way. Here was a bunch of young writers living through a crisis era
doing a project for an administration created
by the crisis itself.The first thing I noticed was there were no references to war or depression.

I can't hope to get inside the minds of these
young writers as they went about their business. But, I also can't helf but wonder
how they saw the environment aroung them as
they wrote about that very environment.
Normalcy, I believe is subjective. Normalcy is merely what is happening today. We can slice and dice and analyze forever. But the
fact remains. We see the past through a telescope and the present through a microscope.

If those writers could have been interviewed
and asked whether they were living in a 4T
(assuming they would know what it was) I wonder what they would have said?

Just wondering...

Buz Painter--Never for a long time have I been so confused.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: buzzard44 on 2002-01-20 13:33 ]</font>

Sundance Film Festival/ Park City Utah:

"September 11 is going to have no impact on filmmaking whatsoever," says longtime film critic Amy Taubin. Most Americans are finished mourning the terrorist atacks and don't want to be reminded of them when they go to the movies," she says. "We go to the movies to take our minds off of whatever's going on out there in the world. Film is a distraction. It's troubling."

"Will Hollywood change? No, it won't," says film critic Roger Ebert....."Movie goers cheerfully go to trash, knowing it's trash."

Documentary filmmaker Barbara Kopple believes directors now will seek to make more humanistic films, "films about understanding each other."

But will Hollywood let them? "Instead of using Sept. 11 as a springboard to make socially responsible movies, Hollywood is worried about "What's going to sell?" and "What's not going to sell?" in this new flag waving climate," says Robert Redford.

And according to TV Guide, Redford has decided against ANY plastic surgery.

Most of Hollywood....3 T
Redford..............4T.

Now if we could only get Redford to run against Hatch (R-Utah) for the US Senate.

One way to visualize the change in generations over time is to use the population from census data by age to show the percentage of each generation filling their age category: youth, rising adulthood, midlife, and elderhood.

Say you get census data from 1995. Make some assumptions, draw the graph over time of the percentage filling each age category. you will see where the peaks all happen within a year or two of each other using S&H theory.

For example, Boomers fill Midlife 100 percent starting in 2004, with the youngest at age 44. The oldest Boomer enters Elderhood at age 66 in 2008.

Interesting to see the graph of each generation filling their age category. It's a wave. Put the youth, rising adult, midlife and elderhood for the different generations on the same graph in the 1990 to 2110 time frame. Look at how everyone peaks at about 2004. Interesting.

3T "victimhood"... It's business as usual even for Taliban murders!

Camp X-Ray could split allies

Prison camp pictures spark protests


Does this remind anyone of those pictures of Susan McDougal? :lol:

The wide growth of a new "apple pie" radicalism?

http://www.phillyimc.org/alternatives/

Since the 9/11 attacks the radical left has grown bigger and more influential. The interesting thing is that this happened here in St. Louis (and NOTHING ever happens here). S&H say that the beginning of Crises usually begin with anti-capitalism/anti-market fervor. This is clearly rising.

http://www.stlimc.org/front.php3?art...&group=webcast

_________________
Robert Reed III (1982)
---------------------------------------------
"Those who give up essential liberties for temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." -- Benjamin Franklin

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: madscientist on 2002-01-23 10:37 ]</font>

madscientist writes:

"Since the 9/11 attacks the radical left has grown bigger and more influential."

I'm sorry, madscientist, but I must point out that I see exactly the opposite happening. How can two people see such opposite phenomena? We're probably looking in different places.

That said, I still see what I see, and it is you who made the claim "Since the 9/11 attacks the radical left has grown bigger and more influential." I didn't make the claim "Since the 9/11 attacks the radical left has grown weaker and more irrelevant.", even though I think that is what has happened, because I would feel required to back up my words with objective examples.

What OBJECTIVE examples can you give? Web links to leftist websites don't count. I could give you a lot of web links to conservative websites, such as this one:

http://www.andrewsullivan.com/print.php?artnum=20011010

in which it is argued that the "Left" has been dealt a near death-blow by 9/11, but that wouldn't prove I'm right.

I would suggest that actual polling data and/or the next national election results would count as "objective" evidence.

On 2002-01-20 21:39, Richard Turnock wrote:

For example, Boomers fill Midlife 100 percent starting in 2004, with the youngest at age 44. The oldest Boomer enters Elderhood at age 66 in 2008.

Actually, the Boomers will fill midlife starting NEXT year, Twenty-Oh-Three. By S&H's definition, the very last Boomer will turn 42 on December 31, 2002 at 11:59 PM.

On 2002-01-23 10:35, madscientist wrote:
Since the 9/11 attacks the radical left has grown bigger and more influential. The interesting thing is that this happened here in St. Louis (and NOTHING ever happens here).

I live in Melbourne and everything happens here, I usually look for big radical events and those are not common.

The idea of 18 year generations and 72-year saecula that Mike has been proposing is interesting, and 9/11 has done much to support his claim, as has economic downturn. While remaining open-minded, there are some things to keep in mind for the contrary view, regarding what has been said.

First, though the average over time of a turning may be 22 years (I suspect it may be longer), the archetypal length cited by S&H is 21 years.

Second, just because generations became shorter starting with the Silent, doesn't mean they will stay shorter; already S&H define Gen X as 21 years again. The Boom may have been short because it was so large. You didn't need 21 years to accumulate a generation's worth of folks.

Third, that there was no Civil War anomaly is something I have also suggested. But you don't have to make room for a Civil War hero gen by taking off years from following generations; you can also take off years from preceeding generations. The Transcendental Generation as given by S&H is 30 years long, long even by standards of pre-colonial days.
My proposal is that many of the Gilded nomads may actually have been heroes, at least in part. They behaved as such during the war, and were schooled and raised as such according to Shelby Foote's description of them. The anomaly, then, may be that these civil war era generations were hybrids, rather than that one of their number did not exist at all.

Fourth, remember that the World War I era, which according to the archetypal 84-year cycle is equivalent to our own time, was also a time when the nation felt shocked into crisis. The provocation was milder (a few ships sunk), but the response was stronger; a whole nation mobilized for war (rather than to demonstrate that we can carry on as normal). Moreover, the violations of civil liberties and due process tolerated during this previous 3T under Wilson and the adaptive Progressives were far greater than those of today. War dissenters were arrested and mistreated. Free speech was not allowed. Still, the 3T continued and deepened afterward.

My conclusion is that "the day our nation changed" will prove to be mostly hype. The war on terrorism will not require the nation's full attention, any more than other current problems. There has been little change in consciousness; our nation is still divided into red and blue zones, and the Republicans are as intransigent as ever in holding to their 3T free market ideology. No consciousness of the need to pull together to make change has happened; not only are no real changes being made, but we have only pulled together enough to sing God Bless America.

As long as Bush remains president, a Democratic victory in 2002 will do little to change this mood or these policies. A Republican victory will only deepen the 3T.

Eric Meece

On 2002-01-23 13:10, Kevin Parker '59 wrote:

On 2002-01-20 21:39, Richard Turnock wrote:

For example, Boomers fill Midlife 100 percent starting in 2004, with the youngest at age 44. The oldest Boomer enters Elderhood at age 66 in 2008.

Actually, the Boomers will fill midlife starting NEXT year, Twenty-Oh-Three. By S&H's definition, the very last Boomer will turn 42 on December 31, 2002 at 11:59 PM.

Thank you for correcting me. I should have looked it up instead of doing it off the top of my head. :smile:

Interesting comments in the archived Civil War thread. One mentioned in passing that the late 19th century produced an anomalous Adaptive generation in the other English speaking countries-their Crisis may have been so mild that it climaxed too soon to empower a generation of might-have-been-Heros. They then filled the Artist niche, but were unusually civic minded for that archetype. There was another idea-that most of the Progressives were a Hero generation, but unempowered, with a tail end dwarf generation of true Adaptives. As I figure it, there were four Civil War archetypes, two of them hybrid: Prophet; Nomad, who adopted some Hero traits; a small generation of (unempowered might-have-been-Heros) anomalous, unusually civic minded Artists; and a tail end dwarf generation of true Artists who were smothered too early to aquire Hero traits.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Tim Walker on 2002-01-23 19:40 ]</font>

Good points Eric. Personally, it *feels* like 3T to me. My view of it being 4T comes solely from cycle indicators, not from any sense of crisis now. If the 4T turns out to be delayed until ~2010 or later as you have proposed and as Marc has shown should be the case based on the S&H theory, this will mean that the indicators I use are wrong.

There is no way for me to know that the indicators are any good unless I test them. The only way to test them is to make a formally documented prediction of the future and then see it either come true or not come true. I finally submitted my second manuscript to the publisher just yesterday that contains my next batch of predictions (e.g. Bush loses in 2004). I am now committed, only time will tell.

I expect that by 2005 I will know one way or another whether my methods work.

Bill O' Reilly bashes Boomers and their "spas". 3T or 4T?

http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=26190

Late 1999-the World Trade Organization appeared in Seattle. And I noticed that coverings had been screwed firmly atop the trash recepticles in the bus tunnel. After the WTO left so did the coverings. In the aftermath of Towerfall the coverings appeared again, and have been screwed in place ever since.

AG Ashcroft covering semi nude sculpures in the dept. of justice is crazy. We are headed into the dark ages the taliban and muslim extremist have their women covered from head to toe. I don't advocate public nudity but is this a signal of things to come from the AG office.

Is it 4T? The winds of winter are a blowing.

<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: nd boom '59 on 2002-01-30 06:47 ]</font>

Intellectually I see 3T. But why do my bones ache so much?

"Anti-globalist" (read: socialist) protesters of the ongoing World Economic Forum in NYC better take it easy this time. New Yorkers are in a mean mood:

http://www.nationalreview.com/dreher...int013102.html


+++++++++

It is hard to express how little patience New Yorkers have for this. Jim Knipfel, a columnist for New York Press, got the man-on-the-street sentiment right when he wrote: "If you skinny little white-bread college kids, with your 'coalitions' for this and your 'actions' against that, think you're going to come into our town and mess things up again just for kicks ? right when we were getting it cleaned up, too! ? I think you're going to be in for a rude awakening. We're feeling a little cranky, and are in no mood for your shenanigans right now."

"Rude awakening" might be putting it mildly. Judging from my entirely unscientific sampling, there's a real "Go ahead punk, make our day" sensibility floating around. New Yorkers are worn out and ticked off, and have had no catharsis releasing the accumulated rage over 9/11 mass murder. The violent protesters coming this way to do harm could serve as scapegoats for the terrorists that got away.

+++++++++

UG. Why are these people so fucking retarded!
AMERICANS ARE FUCKING STUPID.
They dont listen dont learn.
We now have tweedle fucking idiot as our president picking fights with every nation on earth.
People never ask "why?"
They never ask "why here, why New York?"
Maybe because they already know.
No one ever fucking bombs Edinburgh
or Copenhagen or Quebec.
Maybe when anarchists show up people should start asking "why?"
Why anarchists?
Why now?
It hasnt stopped.
I bet you the trigger happy NYPD kill a couple kids this weekend
Those FUCKS

On 2002-01-31 12:51, msm wrote:
"Anti-globalist" (read: socialist) protesters of the ongoing World Economic Forum in NYC better take it easy this time. New Yorkers are in a mean mood:

http://www.nationalreview.com/dreher...int013102.html


+++++++++

It is hard to express how little patience New Yorkers have for this. Jim Knipfel, a columnist for New York Press, got the man-on-the-street sentiment right when he wrote: "If you skinny little white-bread college kids, with your 'coalitions' for this and your 'actions' against that, think you're going to come into our town and mess things up again just for kicks ? right when we were getting it cleaned up, too! ? I think you're going to be in for a rude awakening. We're feeling a little cranky, and are in no mood for your shenanigans right now."

"Rude awakening" might be putting it mildly. Judging from my entirely unscientific sampling, there's a real "Go ahead punk, make our day" sensibility floating around. New Yorkers are worn out and ticked off, and have had no catharsis releasing the accumulated rage over 9/11 mass murder. The violent protesters coming this way to do harm could serve as scapegoats for the terrorists that got away.

+++++++++

Why is corporate socialism better than grass roots socialism?

Prior top recent years, what people said was "nobody ever bombs America". The increases in security at U.S. airports aren't new to Europe; terrorism in Europe forced European airports to enact tighter security a long time ago.

I remember a comment by an Englishwoman after 9/11: "Welcome to the world." I took this to mean that, now, finally, terrorism had reached the U.S.

It is inaccurate to imply that terrorism never strikes in Europe. What about Lockerbie? London has had terrorism for years. So has Paris and Germany.

These are simple facts.

If you are looking for patterns, just for a minute, stop looking at where the victims live, and start looking at where the terrorists come from. There are pretty clear patterns.

(By the way, I knew that last post would get under certain people's skin.)

[Rant from a disgusted J '79]

I fully appreciate how you feel. It drives me absolutely nuts that people can be manipulated so easily -- almost as if they want to be manipulated. It's true that a lot of the more vocal people out there are at least SP's Kool Aid drinkers (if not outright maniacs). Still, going berserk, I keep reminding myself, would be counterproductive right now.

Just sit back; hold tight for a bit longer. We should take the advice of C. Montgomery Burns and, "Bide, until the time is right".