On 2002-03-26 04:39, firemind wrote:
On 2002-03-26 02:35, Eric A Meece wrote:
An ice shelf that big hasn't broken off of Antarctica since before the last ice age.
True. Were the actions of us primitive hunter-gatherers responsible back then as well, are was THAT climate change a natural phenomenon?
FWIW, it matters not a whit. You are absolutely correct that climatic change can and has been caused by natural phenomena, but that doesn't make the prospects of another age of climatic extreme any more desirable.
firemind continues:
On 2002-03-26 02:48, Stonewall Patton wrote:
What do you make of the report that Mars is allegedly heating up as well? If true, then we are dealing with the sun going through its normal cycles or a change of some sort. In any case, climate change here would not be man's fault. Do you have an opinion about this?
Bravo, Stonewall!
I'll admit to suspecting that greenhouse gases may be one factor, but since the Earth has been a lot hotter in the past at times (as well as a lot colder at times), it is difficult to know for sure. Our science has limits, and we don't yet know enough to accurately model the climate. The climate models being used have glaring defects, like failing to take into effect water molecules in the atmosphere.
Given the FACT (unless you consider this opinion) that the return of either a thermal maximum or an ice age would reek havoc on the world as we know it, and the relatively minor costs involved in removing the human component to exacerbating it, why would anyone in their right mind think that inaction was justified?
Oh, you think the cost is major.
Furthermore, proposals like Kyoto are only expected to mitigate climate change by a small amount, at a huge cost. There are ethical problems with using such a huge amount of money to have such a tiny effect, rather than using it to, say, eliminate hunger or something.
Let's look at your HUGE cost, and compare it to reality. I'll pick two examples, and leave it at that:
- MOTOR FUELS: First, why is reducing the wasteful consumption of motor fuels a HUGE cost? If, and these are big ifs: CAFE standards rose to ~40 MPG and applied to light trucks and SUVs as well as cars, and, coincidentally, the tax on motor fuels rose $0.25(US)/gallon, the automobile industry would make a fortune building in-demand fuel effecient cars - cars they know how to build today.
- ELECTRIC UTILITIES: There is no reason to allow acid rain producing power plants to spew this garbage without restriction, when the cost to reduce it is relatively low. I'll admit to living in a low-cost area for electricity, due to the prevalence of these outdated coal-fired dinosaurs. But I'm convinced that the benefits I receive are more than offset by the costs inflicted on others. In other words, fixing this is probably a wash. It only hurts a different group.
I should also note that I'm pro nuclear power. The permitting process needs to be streamlined and long-term storage finally settled, but that can be done if the will to do it is there. I give George Bush decent marks in this area - a rare consession from me.
Movements are afoot in the economy to limit our reliance on fossil fuels, even without Kyoto. Most major car manufacturers are coming out with more gas/electric vehicles. There has possibly been a breakthrough in using sonoluminescence to cause fusion on a small scale. Etc, etc.
I hope you aren't serious. The only motivator for producing electric or hybrid vehicles is the possibility (probability, in the longer term) that CAFE standards will move dramatically higher. Without the threat of government action, none of this work would be on-going, because the potential for return on investment just wouldn't be there. And remember, it isn't just the US that creates a market. Unlike our head-in-the-sand energy policies, other advance economies are applying the cattle prod - and bravo to them for doing it!
Here's a short quote from an article published in Atlantic MOnthly, written by William Calvin, a theoretical neuro-physiologist. Why he writes on climatology is a mystery, but his comments are interesting, nonetheless. Take it as you will:
"A slightly exaggerated version of our present know-something-do-nothing state of affairs is know-nothing-do-nothing: a reduction in science-as-usual, further limiting our chances of discovering a way out. History is full of withdrawals from knowledge-seeking, whether for reasons of fundamentalism, fatalism, or "government lite" economics. This scenario does not require that the shortsighted be in charge, only that they have enough influence to put the relevant science agencies on starvation budgets and to send recommendations back for yet another commission report due five years hence."
... and finally, some poetry:
"Those who will not reason
Perish in the act:
Those who will not act
Perish for that reason.
? W. H. Auden, 1907-1973
[from Collected Shorter Poems]
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.