Mike,

I agree that our decision to make war on Saddam will be based on non-security related criteria. I think it's political rather than economic, though the political impact of a bad economy certainly qualifies.

Senor Shrub is staying in power, if it kills ... well, not him ... but feel free to insert the victim of your choice.

I like the point that Scrowcroft is a Silent, but he also represents lots of Middle East clients in his practice, so it is unclear what is his motivation.

One thing that particularly interests me is how the hawk-dove debate is being played out completely within the Republican party. No Daschle. No Gephardt. I think that they have been burned on previous attempts to backseat drive.

I don't know if the "doves" are just protecting against a bad result in Iraq or if they are just "straw doves" set up to fall in line behind the president when he makes his case to go into Iraq. That would leave the Democrats with no voice.

Finally, I don't think that there is any delay. I think that September/October was always the invasion date to give time to resupply the armaments, give the troops a leave and to wait for the weather to cool in Iraq.

Originally Posted by monoghan

... Finally, I don't think that there is any delay. I think that September/October was always the invasion date to give time to resupply the armaments, give the troops a leave and to wait for the weather to cool in Iraq.

September/October leaves too little time to make an impact before the elections, so this option has "risk" written all over it. Risk for the White House, that is.

It could play very well, and they get their Congressional majority, or it could back-fire, and they lose both houses. I don't see Bush, and company, being anxious to take that gamble.

They have good numbers now. Why risk a failure?

Also possible is a covert coup against Saddam, using perhaps the Turks and Kurds and anti-Saddam Iraqi's sponsored by the U.S.

Saddam seems perhaps to be panicking lest the dots from 9-11 be connected very obviously to him. The assassination of Abu Nidal may have been the erasure of a big dot. See Jack Kelly's article from Sunday:

http://www.post-gazette.com/forum/co...edkell25p2.asp

Kelly was an Undersecretary of the Air Force in the '80's.

Also William Safire:

http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/26/opinion/26SAFI.html

Just in time for Thanksgiving too.

http://216.26.163.62/2002/ss_israel_08_29.html

Originally Posted by madscientist

Just in time for Thanksgiving too.

This sounds a little like misinformation, Texas style. I'll bet on next spring, but only if Saddam doesn't do something he's being told in private to do.

The Bush-wackers are strapping on the 6-guns, but they prefer talking tough to actually doing anything. It's Gary Cooper in High Noon, without the final scene.

3T or 4T?

The recent high profile coverage of the abduction of children.

Is there another purpose?

The hype and hysteria to register and mark our children for the govt., maybe.

Originally Posted by nd boom '59

3T or 4T?

The recent high profile coverage of the abduction of children.

Is there another purpose?

The hype and hysteria to register and mark our children for the govt., maybe.

Question: Are there more (statistically) of these abductions happening lately or is the media's attention focused on the subject, which means that we're hearing about it more, giving the impression of a sudden epidemic of assaults on children?
Also, I don't think that the government is orchestrating news coverage for the purpose of registering all the children (aren't most of them pretty well registered anyway?). But, then again, I've grown pretty weary of "Conspiracy World" and tend to believe that "shit happens", unless someone can show me some pretty darn good evidence that deep dark plots are abounding.

Oh, yeah. I think that the child abduction surge in the news is very 3T. Things are still unraveling, although I believe that we're coming into the end game of the 3T, and how long that fun will last is anyone's guess. Perhaps a couple of years or more?
One of the things recently which made me think "third turning" was the news report (erroneous or not, I don't know) that those two teenage girls who survived that kidnaper/rapist will be hosting a reality TV show. That , at least to me, is not a fourth turning kind of thing.

Originally Posted by alan

Question: Are there more (statistically) of these abductions happening lately or is the media's attention focused on the subject, which means that we're hearing about it more, giving the impression of a sudden epidemic of assaults on children?
Also, I don't think that the government is orchestrating news coverage for the purpose of registering all the children (aren't most of them pretty well registered anyway?). But, then again, I've grown pretty weary of "Conspiracy World" and tend to believe that "shit happens", unless someone can show me some pretty darn good evidence that deep dark plots are abounding.

The number reported is around 100 abductions per year presently. This number is down from 200-300 during the 1980's. There also have been recent articles in the media of location beacon watches for children with GPS and ID imformation available for protection of your child. Other opinions recently reported are that you can buy a microchip implant for the family pet, why not an implant for your child. Which is more important ?
Maybe conspiracy, maybe not.

It may be that an invasion of Iraq may be a symbol of the upcoming Fourth Turning, but how about another event about to happen? Ignore this if a settlement is reached, but if it isn't reached, could the Great Baseball Strike of 2002 be the catalyst for the Fourth Turning? One thing Americans have been happy about in the past 100 or so years is baseball. A strike will definitely hurt the American spirit, just in time for the anniversary of Planeattack, the 2001 Sept 11 attacks. This in turn causes people to lose further trust in institutions and cut back spending, leading to The Great Devaluation.

Maybe the strike is too small a phenomenon to be the catalyst, but remember the tea in Boston Harbor. Maybe the New Millennium's tea will be baseballs.

Originally Posted by Jim Blowers

Maybe the strike is too small a phenomenon to be the catalyst, but remember the tea in Boston Harbor. Maybe the New Millennium's tea will be baseballs.

On the other hand, the baseball strike is happening right at the advent of the football season, so fans will probably flock to the NFL games. If 9/11 happened in July 2001 and so did a baseball strike, that would make more sense, but it still seems extremely unlikely for a baseball strike to be a catalyst.

Originally Posted by alan

Originally Posted by nd boom '59

3T or 4T?

The recent high profile coverage of the abduction of children.

Is there another purpose?

The hype and hysteria to register and mark our children for the govt., maybe.

Question: Are there more (statistically) of these abductions happening lately or is the media's attention focused on the subject, which means that we're hearing about it more, giving the impression of a sudden epidemic of assaults on children?
Also, I don't think that the government is orchestrating news coverage for the purpose of registering all the children (aren't most of them pretty well registered anyway?). But, then again, I've grown pretty weary of "Conspiracy World" and tend to believe that "shit happens", unless someone can show me some pretty darn good evidence that deep dark plots are abounding.

Remember how the media blew those shark attacks of 2001 way out of proportion, declaring it the summer of the shark, even though there were less than the average number of shark attacks that year?

Here's another 3T post: Answering the S&H question of whether leaders are defining the enemy in broad terms, the enemy has gone from "all terrorists" to "axis of evil" to "Al-Qaeda & the Taliban" to "Al-Qaeda" to "Iraq" to "Saddam Hussein". It's getting more specific all the time.

Originally Posted by nd boom '59

Originally Posted by alan

Question: Are there more (statistically) of these abductions happening lately or is the media's attention focused on the subject, which means that we're hearing about it more, giving the impression of a sudden epidemic of assaults on children?
Also, I don't think that the government is orchestrating news coverage for the purpose of registering all the children (aren't most of them pretty well registered anyway?). But, then again, I've grown pretty weary of "Conspiracy World" and tend to believe that "shit happens", unless someone can show me some pretty darn good evidence that deep dark plots are abounding.

The number reported is around 100 abductions per year presently. This number is down from 200-300 during the 1980's. There also have been recent articles in the media of location beacon watches for children with GPS and ID imformation available for protection of your child. Other opinions recently reported are that you can buy a microchip implant for the family pet, why not an implant for your child. Which is more important ?
Maybe conspiracy, maybe not.

What you're noticing is the push to protect children reaching greater extremes, even as the child world becomes safer thanks to the attention it's been receiving for the past couple of decades. This could be considered a "Gen Xer circling the wagons around the family" 4T indicator. Implanting kids with chips for their safeguarding is definitely Gen X overprotective parenting (more reasonably, but still pushing the envelope, the anxious parent can track a child with a wrist device.)

For a thorough analysis, read my commentary at Generation Watch.

I wonder if what seems to be "free floating anxiety" in our society is a 3T symptom. This would at least go one more level down from these specific "worry flashpoints" (that's the best term I can come up with today)--such as child abductions, West Nile Virus, shark attacks, the unnamed revenge of al-Qaeda which will someday happen, or whatever.
I would think that if we were actually solidly in a 4T that we would have something really specific to project our shadows upon, a real enemy, not the anxiety of the week brought to you by the media. Wouldn't there be a certain type of calm (for lack of a better word) in a 4T when we would have a real survival issue or issues,rather than this potpourri (?) of night terrors which we receive in the news?

Originally Posted by alan

I wonder if what seems to be "free floating anxiety" in our society is a 3T symptom. This would at least go one more level down from these specific "worry flashpoints" (that's the best term I can come up with today)--such as child abductions, West Nile Virus, shark attacks, the unnamed revenge of al-Qaeda which will someday happen, or whatever.
I would think that if we were actually solidly in a 4T that we would have something really specific to project our shadows upon, a real enemy, not the anxiety of the week brought to you by the media. Wouldn't there be a certain type of calm (for lack of a better word) in a 4T when we would have a real survival issue or issues,rather than this potpourri (?) of night terrors which we receive in the news?

3T's are charactised by very grim pessmitic views of society, even we have entered a 4T we have not shrugged off our 3T mindset completely. If 911 was the start of the 4T we might not feel completely we are in a 4T for probably a couple more years. It took until 1967 for society as a whole to realise that the High had ended and the Awakening had arrived.

At the beginning of the last Awakening people were ultra-optimistic about the shape of society and the future; they were reasling that the institutions and culture had gone stale. However were optimistic and hopeful that these trends could be resolved quite peacefully. The next few years after 1964 would change that.

Now we are feeling that a new institutional order must be built, however we are very pessimistic about the future and doubt whether these changes will do anything to change that.

If you compare the early 1960?s and the early 2000?s, these eras are complete opposites of each other in every aspect.

It's just that there is no precedent in the Anglo-American saeculum for a war breaking out late in an Unraveling (the French and Indian War would be the closest thing, but clearly does not qualify). Any war that breaks out more than 15 years into a Third Turning is highly likely to precipitate a Fourth (as in the Civil War example).

Another factor is the economy. If we haven't gone into 4T already, the economy should make one last surge, as it did after the recession of 1926-27 - and so far there is no evidence of any such surge occurring; indeed, the latest report on first-time jobless claims is strongly suggestive of a double-dip recession being virtually inevitable.

Finally, look at the baseball strike that didn't happen. Had we still been in 3T, there would have been a strike.

One thing is certain though: If Bush does go after Iraq, it will certainly mark the start of 4T, if we're not in it already; in that case the 2004 election will serve as the regeneracy. Otherwise, the election will be the catalyst. No way does 3T survive that election.

On the I-80 Eastshore Freeway here in West Berkeley the lighted signs that are occasionally used for traffic alerts (meaning hardly used at all) are now being used for child abduction alerts with make, color, and license plate of suspected vehicle. Seems pretty 4T to me.

Originally Posted by Jim Blowers

It may be that an invasion of Iraq may be a symbol of the upcoming Fourth Turning, but how about another event about to happen? Ignore this if a settlement is reached, but if it isn't reached, could the Great Baseball Strike of 2002 be the catalyst for the Fourth Turning? One thing Americans have been happy about in the past 100 or so years is baseball. A strike will definitely hurt the American spirit, just in time for the anniversary of Planeattack, the 2001 Sept 11 attacks. This in turn causes people to lose further trust in institutions and cut back spending, leading to The Great Devaluation.

Maybe the strike is too small a phenomenon to be the catalyst, but remember the tea in Boston Harbor. Maybe the New Millennium's tea will be baseballs.

Actually, I do not think that the Baseball Strike would've been a catalyst anyway, even if it did happen. Surely it would darken the national mood and help confirm the new somber 4T mindset, but younger generations were never as interested in baseball anyway. Besides the threat of a strike, another major hurdle was one of building new stadiums with taxpayer dollars in a time of budgetary crises. The citizens of St. Louis were thoroughly opposed to the efforts, and defeated the measure. Basketball is still popular, but still does not capture the gist of the mood.

I think that Americans will simply start paying more attention to football (especially among Boomer dads and Millie sons), which has already overtaken baseball as the favorite sport of Americans. Bad news in football is rare nowadays. The NFL has done a very good job of cleaning up the sport and placing moral standards on the players. Since 9/11, greater emphasis has been placed on the team rather than the individual. This was especially apparent during the prior superbowl, which featured two teams that placed greater emphasis on teamwork than on individual effort, the Rams and the Patriots. The extra teamwork of the Patriots earned tham a superbowl victory. The NFL is also the sport of the United Way.

Here in St. Louis, people are rooting more for the Rams than the Cardinals, but we still love the Cards. And from what I can tell, the Rams and the NFL certainly does fit the mood more than any other sport.

Originally Posted by madscientist

I think that Americans will simply start paying more attention to football (especially among Boomer dads and Millie sons), which has already overtaken baseball as the favorite sport of Americans. Bad news in football is rare nowadays. The NFL has done a very good job of cleaning up the sport and placing moral standards on the players. Since 9/11, greater emphasis has been placed on the team rather than the individual. This was especially apparent during the prior superbowl, which featured two teams that placed greater emphasis on teamwork than on individual effort, the Rams and the Patriots. The extra teamwork of the Patriots earned tham a superbowl victory. The NFL is also the sport of the United Way.

Here in St. Louis, people are rooting more for the Rams than the Cardinals, but we still love the Cards. And from what I can tell, the Rams and the NFL certainly does fit the mood more than any other sport.

Football has always been the sport of choice for my family (well, since I can remember.) I agree that it's the new all-American sport; I do believe the first Superbowl was in the early Awakening.

There's nothing like a 'Skins-'Pokes showdown to get my relatives riled up!

Leaning toward the 3T, the Culture Wars are still being fought:

Colorado Reps. Dislike 9-11 Speaker

Red Zone: If you give voice to a Palestinian leader, you dishonor the victims of 9-11!
Blue Zone: If you deny the voice of a Palestinian leader, you dishonor the victims of 9-11!


UMd. reading about gay student riles conservatives

Red Zone: How dare you promote your pro-homosexuality religion in a tax-funded institution!
Blue Zone: How dare you promote your anti-homosexuality religion in a tax-funded institution!

Is it not clear, even yet, Mr. Barrera, that the "zones" are of differing seasons: Like one "zone" is in one season while the othet "zone" is in a different season?

Is this possibility os "zoned" seasons so unfathomable? Is the oft stated notion that the left longs for a "crisis" wherein FDR comes again, while conservatives seek to stem the resurget rise of "collectivism" a little while longer, so difficult to grasp, so unreasonable to comprehend, so rediculous sounding as to be duh, duh?

Like, duh, there ain't those folks out there just waiting for the sky to fall in order that they might assume power and feel much more important than the "forgotten man"?

Like duh, is right!

Originally Posted by Marc Lamb

Is it not clear, even yet, Mr. Barrera, that the "zones" are of differing seasons: Like one "zone" is in one season while the othet "zone" is in a different season?

Is this possibility os "zoned" seasons so unfathomable? Is the oft stated notion that the left longs for a "crisis" wherein FDR comes again, while conservatives seek to stem the resurget rise of "collectivism" a little while longer, so difficult to grasp, so unreasonable to comprehend, so rediculous sounding as to be duh, duh?

Like, duh, there ain't those folks out there just waiting for the sky to fall in order that they might assume power and feel much more important than the "forgotten man"?

Like duh, is right!

I gather you mean that the "blue zone" is in denial and clinging to the 3T, while the "red zone" faces the 4T reality of War on Terrorism? A similar contrast is made in this column by Victor Davis Hanson, vis a vis Europe and America.

I think we are living in a libertarian age, and perhaps at the high-water mark of conservative thought - implying that a New Liberalism is lurking behind a corner. Is this what you mean by "resurgent rise of collectivism?" Hanson's column suggests that America's individualist qualities would limit the power of any "FDR"'s who came along.

Yeah, forgive all my mispellings, but, yes, we live "in a libertarian age, and perhaps at the high-water mark of conservative thought..." And, yes, this must imply "that a New Liberalism is lurking behind a corner." Gag me with a spoon, a fork, a nuke or whatever!

Lot's of laughs, Mr. Patton hasn't a clue, but it doesn't get any better than this "present-day" for his kind. Funny how that sort of "wisdom" shall bring on the opposite, huh?

A good quote, though, from you link: David Gelernter said, "I hate to put it in such bald terms. But right-wingers are just smarter than left-wingers. A lot of people didn't feel that they could say it. But since September, it has become slightly easier to admit that you have your doubts about some aspects of the liberal agenda."

Gelernter is a nerd... I think of him as brilliant, much as I view myself. :-?

We, Gelernter and I, are on the very same page (Much to the shagrin of Mr. Saari).