If Bush gets to choose the weapon, he should select a drinking contest -- It'd practically be a guaranteed US victory!Originally Posted by cbailey
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If Bush gets to choose the weapon, he should select a drinking contest -- It'd practically be a guaranteed US victory!
E2K revisited
Supreme Court Asked To Block Lautenberg
N.J. Republican Candidate Files Appeal
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...-2002Oct3.html
It seems as if so many social issues are all surfacing and converging at the same time. More and more it looks like....the Fourth Turning...
Hari Seldon (1984)
I, creator of the Foundation, predictor of the Era of Barbarism, have arrived! And not a moment too soon! Although S&H theory cannot stand up to my psychohistory, I shall entertain myself in this forum nevertheless!
sounds 3T (especially if televised)
This is obviously not applicable, seeing as how there is no way it will happen, and more so in that it was Iraq's idea. Besides, with Saddams doubles, it would be 4 against 1!
1987 INTP
I can imagine a Celebrity Fear Factor with this theme...This is obviously not applicable, seeing as how there is no way it will happen, and more so in that it was Iraq's idea. Besides, with Saddams doubles, it would be 4 against 1!
Didn't the White House ACTUALLY respond to the duel proposition late today?
Well, I know that a reporter asked about it at a press conference, and Press Secretary Ari Fliescher (sic) said something about it being so stupid that it did not deserve a response. I think that was their response...
1987 INTP
This sounds very 4T to me...
http://money.cnn.com/2002/10/01/comm...obbs/index.htm
Watch mid-term elections
Lou Dobbs explains why incumbents should be very worried about their political future.
October 2, 2002: 8:21 AM EDT
By Lou Dobbs, Lou Dobbs Moneyline
NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - This could turn out to be quite a mid-term election. With Senator Torricelli withdrawing from the election, it now appears the Democrats' control of the Senate is every bit as much at risk as that of the Republicans in the House.
And every poll shows voters thinking more about the possibility of war with Iraq than the health of the economy.
Political strategists tell us no matter which issue dominates the minds of voters, there's a strong anti-incumbent sentiment among voters this year. It's not pro-Republican or pro-Democrat, just plain anti-incumbent. And as usual voters may be showing far more intelligence than they're generally given credit for by either party. As if voters never notice when Congress does nothing.
One public interest group notices. Citizens Against Government Waste points out that as of today, the first day of the government's new fiscal year, Congress has not passed a single appropriations bill to fund the government for this year. And the Senate hasn't even passed a budget.
Now, I don't want to be too critical of the Republicans and Democrats in the House and the Senate because there are lots of important issues to distract them from minor items like funding the government. There's the War on Terror, Middle East tensions, and economic uncertainty... but wait, they haven't acted on Homeland Security, the Energy Independence bill, bankruptcy, or prescription drug legislation either.
So perhaps it's something else. Perhaps it has something more to do with that mid-term election. If so, I hope that voter sentiment stays strong right through election day.
Hari Seldon (1984)
I, creator of the Foundation, predictor of the Era of Barbarism, have arrived! And not a moment too soon! Although S&H theory cannot stand up to my psychohistory, I shall entertain myself in this forum nevertheless!
What does the non-T4T public sense?
Attended a poetry reading this evening. As one poet stood up to read, she commented on current events-that we seem to be on "the cusp" of something.
Global crash fears as German bank sinks
Global crash fears as German bank sinks
Faisal Islam, economics correspondent and Will Hutton
Sunday October 6, 2002
The Observer
Stockbrokers around the world are braced for a potentially calamitous week as alarm mounts over a looming, Thirties-style global financial crisis. A leaked email about the credit-worthiness of Commerzbank, Germany's third largest bank, yesterday increased fears of the international stock market malaise exploding into a fully-fledged banking crisis.
Commerzbank lost a quarter of its value last week, raising the spectre of Credit-anstalt, the Austrian bank that collapsed in 1931, sparking global depression.
US stock markets have fallen for six consecutive weeks, to their lowest levels in five years. European markets have collapsed even further, wiping out nearly half of the value of European corpora tions in this year alone. Japan is struggling to put together a plan to save its banking system, riddled with bad debt after a decade of recession and falling prices. Now the German economy threatens to follow.
'There are strong parallels to the Thirties after an unsustainable "new era" boom,' says Avinash Persaud managing director for economics and research at State Street Bank. 'Then, the stock market decline was not just steep, it was long, taking three years to reach the bottom.'
'Commerzbank being affected is a sign of the severity. But in today's crisis risks have been offloaded from the banks to the markets and ultimately our pensioners, which makes the problem more difficult to deal with,' he says. The leaked email about Commerzbank was in response to an inquiry from a US investment bank about rumours of huge losses on credit derivatives, which aim to spread risk.
Figures due to be published on Friday will show that a toll of stock market falls, rising joblessness and war fears is finally denting the spending habits of Americans. Economists fear that the result may be a 'double-dip' US recession, taking much of the world with it.
Europe's finance Ministers, including Chancellor Gordon Brown, will meet in Luxembourg on Tuesday amid deepening concern about the stability of the financial system. Tomorrow evening, the Eurogroup of finance ministers, excluding Brown, will discuss reforming Europe-wide tax and spending rules along the lines of the British system, taking stronger account of economic difficulties.
In the US, the concern is that Alan Greenspan, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, has insufficient room to cut interest rates if the economy falls into recession. 'The [Bush] Administration has two lines of action: tax relief for the rich [and] reliance on the Federal Reserve. Both are without effect,' says US economist JK Galbraith in an interview with The Observer.
http://www.observer.co.uk/economy/st...805683,00.html
it has been a long time?
I recall posting some in the old forums, and even registering with the new ones awhile back, or maybe not. I dunno, I couldn't find my username on the list, guess that's what I get for just lurking all this time. Sigh, at any rate I always enjoy what everyone has to write.
This weekend I fell on the website of Theodore Modis. http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/tmod He is the fellow who wrote a book around 1992 called Predictions, which you might be familiar with. He is something of a guru of S-curve statistics. The law of the S-curve is when you know the mid-point of a phenomena following an S-curve pattern then when you take the first half of the curve and flip it over you can predict the limits and demise of the phenomena.
Unfortunately I have never read any of his books but reading on the web he advocates a 56 year economic cycle of sorts. I'm not sure how it could relate to K-cycles or to the Fourth-Turning theory for that matter. But it got me thinking. The Bretton Woods get together was around 1944, and the IMF actually started financial actions in early 1947, so maybe there is a connection between world financial turmoil, or the hint of it, and this fellow's cycle. Of course 56 years added to 1947 is 2003. (I's gut wit math!) Also of interest is the remarkable series of protest around the world the last several years against the IMF.
Maybe this might shed some insight on why it appears the fourth turning is happening early. That is that the architecture holding the world's finacial system together has run its course. And this architecture has primarily served the United States' interest. So this beg's the question, does the U.S. have something to replace it, or are our interests the new dinosaur?
Or does this have anything to do with this topic?
:-?
Here is an interesting analysis of a few topics under discussion. He analyzes the phony "al-Qaeda" arrest in Portland (as we move toward Election Day), and he also takes apart the Iraq war resolution in order to show what my be in our future. I don't see how this "war without end" can be remotely regarded as 3T.
(BTW, I am going to try to copy the source in order to preserve the author's highlighting. I apologize if it does not work.)
http://www.centrexnews.com/columnist...2002/1004.html
(For educ. and duscussion)
<FONT FACE="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica" SIZE="-1" COLOR="#000000">
<FONT SIZE="1">
WORLD AFFAIRS BRIEF
October 4, 2002
Copyright Joel M. Skousen
<U>Partial Quotations</U> with attribution permitted.
Cite source as Joel Skousen's World Affairs Brief
(http://www.joelskousen.com).</FONT>
<FONT SIZE="1"><U>[Excerpt]</U></FONT>
<P ALIGN="justify">Describing today?s events as "a defining day in America's war against terrorism," Attorney General John Ashcroft created national headlines by announcing the arrest of four out of six members of an al Qaeda "sleeper cell." Three non Islamic suspects were arrested in Portland, Oregon, and one of Middle Eastern descent in Michigan. The two other Middle Easterners are still outside the country. I?m on the scene here in Portland and I can tell you this is a <U>molehill of a story being made into a mountain</U>. If this is a "defining day" in the war on terrorism, Ashcroft has yet to deal with real terrorists. Even by Ashcroft?s admission there is no evidence any of these suspects had any criminal intentions here in America. The three in Portland were playing a supporting role for the other three who have been trying to join either the Taliban or al Qaeda in Afghanistan. The Portland suspects had a few small arms they had used for target practice, but no explosives or terror devices. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">From the police response, you would think they were up against a small army. Tens of state and local police, sheriff?s deputies, and FBI agents, covered by helicopters overhead, surrounded an apartment complex in Portland (within blocks of a mosque, providing a convenient media talking point on innuendo) in a large assault early this morning. That?s supposed to be the big terrorist story. Despite the lack of a crime, the entire area is cordoned off. This kind of overblown response appears to be part of an emerging pattern within Homeland Security, attempting to maximize the impact of any potential terrorist arrest, however insignificant--certainly not worth a national press conference, unless one is desperate to "show and tell." Ashcroft and his terrorist task force teams seem consumed with trying to find any evidence to justify the government?s constant terror alerts, even though no organized terrorists acts have been committed on US soil since 9/11. Bringing into play multiple police forces, even when not needed, is also part of the Ashcroft modus operandi to showcase the federal government?s new "partnership between federal and local police forces."</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The Justice Department micromanaged this piece of propaganda masterfully. First, they sent out tantalizing news releases to local TV stations all around the country early this morning alerting them to this "terror related" arrest. The world was kept on the edge of their chair as early morning news talking heads told everyone they knew nothing except that a major "police action" was ongoing in Portland, Oregon, and that they were waiting for details from a special news conference to be broadcast by US Attorney General Ashcroft at 11 AM eastern time. Of course every TV station in America had the feed of the helicopter video covering the scene at the apartment complex ? with nothing going on except one lowly car being searched.</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The propaganda value of this engineered media stunt became obvious at the onset of Ashcroft?s news conference. Relying heavily on a written script, he began reviewing, cataloging and lauding the government?s efforts on the war on terror, thus far. And then the big announcement ? that an indictment had been issued for six suspects (five of whom are US citizens). Their single crime, restated and expanded in four different ways, was "planning to join with and give assistance to al Qaeda." The FBI had undoubtedly been tapping the suspects? phones for months, so they do have their intentions on tape. Incidentally, this is the first "terrorist" arrest in country which the Justice Department has given any details at all about what they know about a terror subject sufficient to justify an arrest ? and it was very sketchy. The media?s hopes for more answers during the question and answer section were dashed as Ashcroft answered every question with the standard refrain: "I cannot reveal anything more while the indictment is in progress." The question and answer section was obviously held just for the sake of appearances. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The story was leaked that the suspects had converted to Islam, but this was obviously more talk than reality. The local mosque closest to the apartment said these men had never taken instructions in Islam, that none of them were known to the local Muslim community, but that they had recently come to the Mosque on one or two occassions but were not communicative. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The impression was given by the term "sleeper cell," that these six were ready to pounce on innocent Americans. Apparently not so. They were most likely John Lindh copycats trying to join or support the Taliban in Afghanistan in solidarity with Osama bin Laden. The extent of their military training, except for one ex-military type, was some pistol and rifle shooting practice while trespassing on someone?s private property in Oregon. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">A close analysis of the names of the 3 arrested in Oregon leads to other crucial issues not even raised by the establishment media. The 3 Americans seem to have taken noms de?guerre with Marxist overtones (Jeffrey Leon <U>Battle</U>, <U>Patrice Lumumba</U> Ford, and <U>October Martinique</U> Lewis). Patrice Lumumba was a Marxist dictator in the Congo, and "October Martinique" refers to famous October, 1794 rebellion of the slaves on the island of Martinique. "October" is a women who happens to be Jeffry Battle?s ex-wife. Thus, it appears that this Portland groups is composed of old line Marxists who have a history of switching names and causes as necessary in order to fight against America in any way possible. There are thousands of anti-police thugs and leftists who are potential sympathizers with any anti-US cause. But, few of these match match the typical profile of international terrorists in terms of prior history and training. Ashcroft is grasping at straws. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">They may well have wanted to join al Qaeda, at least temporarily, but such intentions don?t constitute a "sleeper cell" in the normal terminology of terrorism. Sleeper cell members are highly trained (usually outside the target country) in explosives, sniping, and sabotage. They are then infiltrated into the country to begin their attacks. The government has already admitted they have no evidence that any terrorist operations were being planned by these six suspects. In fact, the US has experienced <U>no such attacks since 9/11</U>, a fact which is, in itself, the largest non sequitur in the government?s claim that there are hundreds of al Qaeda cells within the country. If there are, where are they and why are they not attacking? The government attributes this lack of terrorism to the success of FBI efforts to uncover such cells. But so far they have only arrested a dozen Americans, and none fit the profile of a trained terrorist. Even if the FBI were actively hunting al Qaeda, that still doesn?t explain why we are not subjected to constant terror attacks. In countries like Israel, where security is 100 times more effective and concentrated than in the US, there are <U>weekly terrorist incidents</U>. Why not here, where security is almost non-existent (except for harassing American grandmothers at airports)? Real terrorism is almost impossible to prevent. Do we have a form of controlled terrorism? If so, who is doing the controlling and for what purposes? </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">Ashcroft has made much of shoe bomber Richard Read?s confession that he was a member of al Qaeda and that he really intended to blow up the trans-Atlantic flight he was on. But this is suspect. Read?s confession was part of a scripted plea bargain, in which he had to agree to state a connection with al Qaeda. Frankly, I don?t believe he was working for al Qaeda, except on his own independent initiative. A formally trained terrorist as part of al Qaeda would have known enough about explosives to realize that you <U>can?t set off plastic explosives in
your shoe by lighting them with a match</U>; a blasting cap is needed. If this is the best excuse for a terrorist the government can come up with, I remain convinced that something is very wrong with this "war on terror."</P>
BUSH GETS WHAT HE WANTS FROM A SPINELESS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">Only a few conservative Republicans, centering around Rep Ron Paul, stood against Bush?s war resolution on principle. The Democratic Congressmen who opposed the Bush war on Iraq never developed a strong, principled opposition to the war. Media-manipulated public opinion cornered them into tacitly accepting the "Iraqi threat" argument, even though there are many other larger threats in the world not under attack by Bush. These Congressmen should have made the most out of the hypocrisy of targeting only Iraqi while letting others slide. Of course, they couldn?t very well do that because Democrats have been helping to cover for other countries? violations of weapons agreements for years. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The Bush stream of anti-Iraq propaganda cornered the opposition into nit-picking about "proofs" --a battle they couldn?t win when up against the Bush administration?s ability to generate a continual stream of secret, yet unverifiable, hearsay evidence from intelligence agencies, which are obviously under orders to produce anything and everything necessary to justify war. For example, the much touted report by the International Atomic Energy Agency that President Bush claimed as evidence that Iraq in 1998 was six months away from developing a nuclear weapon, does not, in fact, exist. The US media gave uncritical assent to this sloppy evidence in its eagerness to support the Bush global agenda, and has never issued a retraction even after the denial by the AEC was issued. Additionally, the British dossier of evidence against Iraq proved only one thing, as one savvy pundit put it: "that the fax machines between the White House and Britain were working well."</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The Democratic opposition also sought to hide behind the skirts of the UN ? trying to limit the level of US intervention solely to the realm of enforcing specific UN resolutions, as opposed to the carte blanche powers Bush wanted to intervene anywhere in the Middle East to "ensure international peace." It is ironic that people seeking to limit our government in its fetish to prosecute this selective war of intervention attempt to rely upon the UN which has <U>the worst history of meddling and botched defense of human rights anywhere imaginable</U>. The resulting skewed debate, showcasing the UN as the only authority for war powers, boosted the UN?s stock as sole arbiter of world disputes about 200 percent ? very bad for conservatives who value the US Constitution.</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">For those of us who oppose this war because we suspect Bush of having ulterior motives in its prosecution, Bush?s response to even this weak attempt by Congress to limit the US role is a key point. If it is true that Bush intends to meddle in much more than Iraq, Bush would be expected to react very negatively to any language that would hinder his authority to expand the war without permission. This is exactly what happened last week as Bush responded to the Democrats? proposed limitations. "I don't want to get a resolution which ties my hands," Bush told reporters after meeting with lawmakers. Bush said he wanted nothing more than a "clear signal to the world that this country is determined to disarm Iraq, and thereby bring peace to the world." That last statement is ludicrous. Remember it, America. <U>There will never be peace in the world after Bush invades and disarms Iraq</U>. In fact, it is a primary hidden agenda of globalist leaders like Bush to engender more wars. This is the very reason globalists during his father?s administration purposely failed to remove Hussein from power during the Gulf War. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">During that same news conference, Bush told an outright lie: "All of us recognize that the military option is not the first choice." But it is, for the Bush team. Military contacts from the Middle East continue to report to me and others that the amount of equipment being shipped to the Gulf region is at least on par with shipments preparatory to the Gulf War. Other indications that this war is a "go" are reports from the defense industry in Southern California. There, in a region which has perhaps the largest concentration of US defense contractors, every company is gearing up for a potential attack against Iraq. Friends of mine in the area report that engineers have had to cancel vacations and are working double overtime on many projects. Certain projects related to surveillance (which has implications for Iraq as well as for the Bush administration?s intentions to surveil Americans at home) are being accelerated toward "emergency deployment." Some equipment is even being rushed out the door before final testing is complete and before all the bugs are worked out. One report from TRW Inc. in Carson, CA indicated that the company was ordered by the Pentagon to begin supplying a new battlefield computer system to the Persian Gulf region, even though testing is far from complete. This president is going to war ? it?s only a matter of when. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">In short, the Bush administration had more artful lawyers, negotiators and wordsmiths than the timid Democratic opposition. For all the Democrats? whining, they <U>conceded every dangerous point, in principle, to the White House</U>, despite their petty changes and alternate language.</P>
<DIR> <P ALIGN="justify">Bush got virtually all of his CIA propaganda about the "dangers of Iraq" incorporated into the "WHEREAS" section of justifications.</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">Bush got his "roaming war power" acceded to in the last "WHEREAS" section rather than in the resolution section (which won?t slow down his intervention one bit). It states, "WHEREAS, it is in the national security of the United States to restore international peace and security to the Persian Gulf region;"</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">Bush got Congress to entitle the resolution officially as the "Authorization for the Use of Military Force Against Iraq" so that his undisputed war powers can be paraded before the public every time this resolution is mentioned. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">Bush even got Congress to back his ongoing efforts to twist arms in the UN hoping to cajole the international body into matching his language proposed to Congress: "The Congress supports the president?s efforts to: (a) strictly enforce through the United Nations Security Council all relevant Security Council resolutions applicable to Iraq and encourages him in those efforts [Congress was wise enough to limit the language regarding Security Council resolutions to Iraq. There are a host of anti-Israel resolutions on the book, which the US does not want to enforce]; and (b) obtain prompt and decisive action by the Security Council to ensure that Iraq abandons its strategy of delay, evasion and noncompliance and promptly and strictly complies with all relevant Security Council resolutions." </P></DIR>
<P ALIGN="justify">This language in (b) above will allow Bush to attack at the <U>very first delay Iraq presents to the current inspection efforts</U>. This language about delay was crucial in light of the UN-Iraqi agreement to restart the inspection process (under the "old rules" of prior UN agreements) within two weeks. Bush will not dare attack Iraq until these inspectors have an opportunity to test Iraqi openness, so his war agenda is temporarily halted. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">BREAKING NEWS: Today, Hans Blix, leader of United Nations weapons inspections team, succumbed to intense US pressure and agreed to <U>delay the team?s return to Iraq until the Security Council gives them new instructions</U>. This is a complete negation of the UN?s agreement made two days ago with Iraq. It means that the US did some heavy back-room arm twisting at the UN. The US must be confident of their ability bribing enough members of the Security Council to get new inspection guidelines as well as a resolution authorizing armed force. The new guidelines will be specifically designed as to be <U>so intrusive that Iraq will be forced to reject them</U> ? thus paving the way for the Bush attack being readied at this time.</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The core authorization of Congress?s resolution is given in SECTION 3:</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">"(a) AUTHORIZATION. The president is authorized to use the Armed Forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to (1) defend the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq; and (2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council Resolutions regarding Iraq."</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">What follows are two sections of verbiage meant only to assuage the opposition and make them feel they have done their duty. First, the president is required to determine within 48 hours of using force that, </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">"(1) reliance by the United States on further diplomatic or other peaceful means alone either (A) will not adequately protect the national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq or (B) is not likely to lead to enforcement of all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions regarding Iraq, and</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">"(2) acting pursuant to this resolution is consistent with the United States and other countries continuing to take the necessary actions against international terrorists and terrorist organizations, including those nations, organizations or persons who planned, authorized, committed or aided the terrorists attacks that occurred on Sept. 11, 2001."</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The certifications required by these two sections are so simple to falsify as to constitute an automatic "rubber stamp" for war. Second, the president must "report to Congress" once every 60 days his further justification for war ? again, an easy requirement to fulfill. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">As to the War Powers Act Congress passed to authorize the Vietnam War, which evaded the Constitutional requirement for Congress to declare war, the current resolution adds technical language to accommodate this evasion: "Nothing in this resolution supersedes any requirement of the War Powers Resolution (Act)." This was legal language inserted to safeguard the administration?s legal determination that Bush <U>doesn?t need this resolution from Congress</U> to use military force against Iraq. Bush still maintains he has carte blanche powers to wage war anything, anywhere, based upon the prior War Powers Act. His need to play along with Congress in this instance was brought on by a mistake during a news conference when he erroneously said he would seek the "approval" of Congress, when he meant "support." The above stipulation is meant to ensure that this resolution doesn?t nullify prior legal precedents that globalists will want to rely upon in the future. </P>
HEZBOLLAH: ONE ENEMY THAT REALLY NEEDS DISARMING BY ISRAEL</P>
<P ALIGN="justify">Even though Israel is gearing up for the coming Iraqi attack ? being a primary target of Iraqi aggression ? several Israeli generals are not convinced Iraq is really the big problem. In an article published in the left-leaning Haaretz newspaper, Reserve Brig. Gen. Aharon Levran stated, "the Bush administration has no solid grounds for waging war on Saddam Hussein and the variety of risks Saddam poses are exaggerated." The general disputes that Saddam has nuclear weapons, and says that Iraq has had several opportunities to use its chemical and biological weapons, but has refrained (i.e.: during the Gulf war, and during the Scud missile attacks on US troops and Israel). This is true. The Bush administration has never satisfactorily explained why Saddam has not yet used his WMD even when attacked. </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">The larger threat of war in the region is clearly from directly north of Israel, in southern Lebanon and in Syria (the latter, ironically, a US backed member of the UN Security Council). As the New York Times reported on Sep. 27, "Over the last year, the radical Lebanese Shi'ite militia [Hezbollah] has amassed thousands of short-range rockets provided to the group by Iran and transported via Syria. These deliveries, which include some 8,000 to 9,000 12 kilometer range Katyusha rockets, as well as several hundred of the longer range, Iranian made Fajr-3 and Fajr-5 missiles, have transformed southern Lebanon into a powder keg." </P>
<P ALIGN="justify">While I suspect that the US will tackle Syria and Lebanon after Iraq, one wonders why the <U>US is prohibiting Israel from launching any pre-emptive strikes into Lebanon right now</U>. This is an operation clearly within Israel?s power. It seems that the Bush team is anxious to do it themselves, as part of their efforts to alienate forevermore the entire Arab world. </P>
I'll post this for you 3T advocates since this is so 3T it ain't funny. But note the response. If the act is cancelled, that could be interpreted as a 4T "correction."
http://www.drudgereport.com/leno.htm
(For educ. and discussion)
XXXXX DRUDGE REPORT XXXXX SUN OCT 06, 2002 14:45:08 ET XXXXX
PEACOCK BLUSH: LENO BOOKS 'PENIS GYMNASTICS'; EXECUTIVE CALLS ON LATE NIGHT HOST TO RETHINK APPEARANCE
**Exclusive**
Latenight King Jay Leno has quietly booked two guests to appear on his show this week: who manipulate their genitals into various shapes, objects, and landmarks!
The stars of the cabaret show PUPPETRY OF THE PENIS are confirmed to appear on Leno Wednesday night, it has been learned.
At least one senior executive at NBC has expressed concern over the controversial guest shot and is calling on host Jay Leno to cancel the appearance!
MORE
"I cannot imagine what these guys will do on the air... we are certainly not prepared to show anyone's genitals," a top NBC suit told the DRUDGE REPORT.
After viewing the official website for PUPPETRY OF THE PENIS, the stunned executive added: "This is not in the spirit of the TONIGHT SHOW... What is 'genital origami'?! I strongly suggest Jay take the high road."
Puppetry of the Penis involves men manipulating their private parts, stretching and pulling them into works of art.
There's the Eiffel Tower, the Windsurfer and the signature Hamburger.
A TONIGHT SHOW source confirms the penis act has been scheduled for Wednesday night.
"This will be done in good taste," said the production source.
Developing...
---Filed by Matt Drudge in New York City.
Re: it has been a long time?
Interesting post. I'm not going to respond directly to it, but just to the notion that this Fourth is "early". If you assume that generations "should" be 21 years, more or less, all the last turnings this past saeculum have been early.
The last 4T started in 1929. Add 21 years to that and you get a starting date for the High of 1950. It actually started in 1946 (at least in the US).
The last 2T started in 1963. Add 21 years to 1946 (when 1T began) and you get a start date of 1967. Add 21 years to 1950 (when 1T "should" have started) and you get 1971! So already we're eight years "early".
The last 3T start date is a matter of some debate on this thread, but lets take S&H's date of 1984. That is the one date that lines up with a 21-year Turning (2T from 1963 to 1984). However if the past 4T and 1T had been 21 years, it "should" have started in 1992. So we're still 8 years "early".
So if you assume that 4T started on 9/11/01, you've got a 17-year 3T. A 21-year 3T would take you out to 2005, but if each of the previous turnings had been 21 years, 4T wouldn't start until 2013!
Make of it what you will. I posit that an 18-year turning appears to be "normal" these days. I also believe that the 3T catalyst was November 1980, when Reagan won the election and the GOP took control over the Senate and Americans began to turn inside and try to become rich. The Social Moment was 1984's "Morning in America", just like the Social Moment for 2T was the 1967 "Summer of Love" (or the 1968 riots and protests) and the Social Moment for the last 4T was the 1932 election of FDR.
If you buy the 18-year turning (and assume we be 4T) then this 4T is not early.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
I have been advocating 18 year turnings for more than two years. I also thought the 4T might have already started in August 2000. I now date the start in the 1st quarter of 2001.
Re: it has been a long time?
OTOH, even your 1T and 2T dates are open to debate... does the turning begin at the Catalyst or the Social Moment? and why would the 1T begin in 1946 of all years when the WWII fighting ended in 1945? My personal chart would be as follows:Interesting post. I'm not going to respond directly to it, but just to the notion that this Fourth is "early". If you assume that generations "should" be 21 years, more or less, all the last turnings this past saeculum have been early.
The last 4T started in 1929. Add 21 years to that and you get a starting date for the High of 1950. It actually started in 1946 (at least in the US).
The last 2T started in 1963. Add 21 years to 1946 (when 1T began) and you get a start date of 1967. Add 21 years to 1950 (when 1T "should" have started) and you get 1971! So already we're eight years "early".
The last 3T start date is a matter of some debate on this thread, but lets take S&H's date of 1984. That is the one date that lines up with a 21-year Turning (2T from 1963 to 1984). However if the past 4T and 1T had been 21 years, it "should" have started in 1992. So we're still 8 years "early".
So if you assume that 4T started on 9/11/01, you've got a 17-year 3T. A 21-year 3T would take you out to 2005, but if each of the previous turnings had been 21 years, 4T wouldn't start until 2013!
Make of it what you will. I posit that an 18-year turning appears to be "normal" these days. I also believe that the 3T catalyst was November 1980, when Reagan won the election and the GOP took control over the Senate and Americans began to turn inside and try to become rich. The Social Moment was 1984's "Morning in America", just like the Social Moment for 2T was the 1967 "Summer of Love" (or the 1968 riots and protests) and the Social Moment for the last 4T was the 1932 election of FDR.
If you buy the 18-year turning (and assume we be 4T) then this 4T is not early.
Turning Catalyst Social Moment
4T 10/29/29 11/1932
1T 1948 1950 (even if WWII was long gone by 48)
2T 11/1963 Summer 1968 (a shortened High would lead to truncated Boomers)
3T 10/19/1987 (Marc Lamb's 07-87 alignment is convincing enough that it seems to me that nothing before 87 can really be a catalyst)
So using catalysts, the turnings have thus far lasted 19 years on average and using social moments they have lasted 18 but 3T's tend to be longer than 4T's; a 2005 crisis onset would suggest a 19-year turning model and a 2009 crisis onset would suggest a 20-year model; however, within the next half century or so the difference between 18 and 20 year turnings will be so great that it will be obvious to all which ones are being used
I think we may be stretching some terminology here. The original concept of the Turnings applied the term "catalyst" only to Fourth Turnings, and "social moment" only to Second and Fourth Turnings. With respect to Crisis eras, we have considered them to begin with the catalyst. What Number Two is calling the "social moment" is what has usually been called the "regeneracy." To start the last 4T with Roosevelt's election rather than the stock market crash is to redefine what we mean by the term. Why do that? The regeneracy is already identified as a distinct transition within the Crisis era.OTOH, even your 1T and 2T dates are open to debate... does the turning begin at the Catalyst or the Social Moment?
In this saeculum, it's possible to identify a "catalyst" event for the Awakening in the assassination of JFK, but that's not necessarily typical. When we get down to calling Reagan's election a "catalyst" for the Unraveling, it seems to me we've carried the concept to an excess.
The year 1946 as the start of the High is imprecise, but not far off in that the war ended fairly late in 1945, and there was considerable string-tying to be done. The transition from Crisis to High wasn't marked and obvious. (And that's true of transitions to conservative Turnings generally.) I think the line works. I would also agree with S & H that the Awakening began in '64, meaning we had an 18-year High. Where I break with them is in the Unraveling's onset. Ronald Reagan's presidency does not seem to me an Awakening phenomenon but an Unraveling one, yet I would not date the onset in 1980, because it was necessary for him to get past the burst of protest and the slack economy before he was "confirmed" in the presidency, so to speak. So I would date the Unraveling's onset in early 1983 or late 1982, giving us an 18-year Awakening.
And if 9/11/01 is the catalyst for the Crisis era, then we also had an 18-year Third Turning.
I'm sure someone has mentioned this in the past, but this argument (that generational cycles are sped up lately) reminds me of those studies showing teenage girls maturing more quickly this century than in the past. If that has anything to do with the acceleration, then I can't believe it's because of teen pregnancy. Women have always had at times children at a young age. Rather I would think its the expanded consciousness that comes with sexual awakening.The Wonk wrote:
Make of it what you will. I posit that an 18-year turning appears to be "normal" these days. I also believe that the 3T catalyst was November 1980, when Reagan won the election and the GOP took control over the Senate and Americans began to turn inside and try to become rich. The Social Moment was 1984's "Morning in America", just like the Social Moment for 2T was the 1967 "Summer of Love" (or the 1968 riots and protests) and the Social Moment for the last 4T was the 1932 election of FDR.
If you buy the 18-year turning (and assume we be 4T) then this 4T is not early.
_________________
With regard to the personal effect of a fourth turning, I can say that if everyone had experienced the amazing series of events since 2000 that I have the argument whether or not we are in one would become mute. That has included losing a good paying job due to operations closure, home foreclosure and even a good rest in jail at one point (charges later dropped). Sometimes I feel like I'm living out the 'Grapes of Wrath' with ramen noodles.
I can't believe this is merely anectodal though. All we ever hear in the media is numbers, with rarely a face to go with it. The subject of foreclosure for instance: I was watching a program on CNBC or somewhere, the story started out stating that foreclosures were at a 30 year high or whatnot, but more importantly, how YOU (the lucky fellow) could take advantage of this investment opportunity. Just make sure to do a title search and termite inspection, and you can make a 100% return on your investment in just a few short months. Such events have had the effect of turning my opinions firmly to the left of center. I plan on going to the October 26 rally in San Fransico (the primary protest is in Washington D.C.) on the anniversary of the signing of the Patriot Act to add my voice against this administrations reckless pursuit of world domination.
8)
[quote="Brian Rush"]I think we may be stretching some terminology here. The original concept of the Turnings applied the term "catalyst" only to Fourth Turnings, and "social moment" only to Second and Fourth Turnings. With respect to Crisis eras, we have considered them to begin with the catalyst. What Number Two is calling the "social moment" is what has usually been called the "regeneracy." To start the last 4T with Roosevelt's election rather than the stock market crash is to redefine what we mean by the term. Why do that? The regeneracy is already identified as a distinct transition within the Crisis era.OTOH, even your 1T and 2T dates are open to debate... does the turning begin at the Catalyst or the Social Moment?
[/google]
I was using Jenny Genser's terminology and I thought it was universal on this board... but I guess it doesn't make THAT much sense (particularly for the odd numbered turnings)
Without requiring the catalyst AND social moment for each turning it makes even more sense to line up 1907 with 1987... I would still use the 63 - to - 68 starting period for the awakening; the only places showing strong awakening signs in 1964 were the most liberal college campuses!In this saeculum, it's possible to identify a "catalyst" event for the Awakening in the assassination of JFK, but that's not necessarily typical. When we get down to calling Reagan's election a "catalyst" for the Unraveling, it seems to me we've carried the concept to an excess.
The year 1946 as the start of the High is imprecise, but not far off in that the war ended fairly late in 1945, and there was considerable string-tying to be done. The transition from Crisis to High wasn't marked and obvious. (And that's true of transitions to conservative Turnings generally.) I think the line works. I would also agree with S & H that the Awakening began in '64, meaning we had an 18-year High. Where I break with them is in the Unraveling's onset. Ronald Reagan's presidency does not seem to me an Awakening phenomenon but an Unraveling one, yet I would not date the onset in 1980, because it was necessary for him to get past the burst of protest and the slack economy before he was "confirmed" in the presidency, so to speak. So I would date the Unraveling's onset in early 1983 or late 1982, giving us an 18-year Awakening.
And if 9/11/01 is the catalyst for the Crisis era, then we also had an 18-year Third Turning.
Speaking of liberal college campuses, Jarvard has been getting more 4T-like lately. For at least a decade, Silent Harvey C. Mansfield has been launching a one-man crusade against what he perceived as "grade inflation"; his claims were largely ignored as ludicrous - however in fall 2001 when Silent president Neil Rudenstein was replaced by Boomer president Larry Summers, he immediately had a task force, saw that grades *were* rising, and demanded that action be taken immediately! (arguably it IS still 3T behavior - paying attention to a ludicrous PR issue). More notably, a little over a week ago, Fifteen Minutes (FM; Jarvard's weekly newspaper that tries to send the impression that there is a party life at Jarvard) sent reporters to cover seven freshmen as they went out to party one weekend night. However they made the mistake of reporting that a few of them drank alcohol - and today's Crimson said that deans arranged for meetings with a few of the people to punish them! I only HOPE zero tolerance is a crazy 3T issue and not a foundation of the 4T... all I know is that as the workload gets harder (to combat "grade inflation") and the parties become more and more sparse (thanks to the stringent policies that go much further than legally necessary!) one really DOES adopt more of a "just do it/just get by" attitude in which one begins counting down to the end of the school year in September (and this year, i'm not the only one; jarvard has actually ceased being teflon for criticism from its own members - maybe that IS a 4T sign); seeing that we are on the cusp at this very liberal (although still strongly authoritarian)institution suggests that the 4T in the general US will begin closer to 2005 than 2001 or 2009
Why shouldn't leading liberal institutions be lagging indicators rather than leading indicators this time?
It would just play into all that Harvard arrogance if they were always leading.
I'm starting to understand how the Israelis feel, with the random shootings in the D.C. burbs. Terrorism, perhaps?
See below, printed for educational purposes only.
My daughter has a trip scheduled to the National Museum of Art with her class of second and third graders to look at the Egyptian exhibit. I'll let you know tomorrow if its been cancelled.Teenager Shot Outside Bowie School
By Tracey Reeves
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, October 7, 2002; 1:32 PM
A 13-year-old boy was shot and critically wounded just before school this morning in front of Benjamin Tasker Middle School in Bowie. Across the region, in communities already anxious over last week's deadly sniper attacks, the news of this incident ratcheted up that anxiety even as authorities said they could not immediately say whether the school shooting was related.
The boy's aunt, a nurse who had just dropped the boy at school, heard the shot at 8:09 a.m., and rushed the boy to Bowie Health Center. He was taken by helicopter to Children's Hospital in the District, where he remained in surgery at 1 p.m. Law enforcement from Montgomery County, Prince George's County and the District were at the hospital. A Prince George's official who was with the family initially said an X-ray showed the bullet lodged near his heart with lots of fragments.
At Tasker, which has nearly 1,400 students in seventh and eighth grades, crime scene tape stretched around a grassy, wooded hillside that rises directly across the street from Tasker Middle School, and investigators combed the area looking for shell casings or other evidence. State's Attorney Jack Johnson arrived to be briefed.
As news circulated on radio and television, dozens of worried parents began coming back to pick up their children. School system officials ordered a lockdown of Tasker and all other campuses and urged parents elsewhere to leave their students in place.
"We're on high security alert; we have extra security in buildings," system chief executive officer Iris Metts said. "The situation is very fluid. We're trying to get [Tasker] students home."
She stressed that officials would be "very, very careful with dismissal today" and make decisions about Tuesday class schedules later in the afternoon. Looking grim, she said simply, "We live in very dangerous and unpredictable times."
Police asked anyone with information to call 1-800-673-2777. At an early afternoon briefing, public safety director Fred Thomas confirmed that police had "a few witnesses who we are interviewing." He would not say whether any of those witnesses saw the gunman.
In Montgomery County, police Chief Charles A. Moose said it was "way too early" to say whether the shooting was related to the seven sniper attacks that have killed six people and critically wounded one across the region since Wednesday night.
"Clearly this is an unfolding, evolving situation," Moose said. "We don't want to jump to any conclusions."
Montgomery sent 80 recruits in its public safety academy training to help agents from the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms look for shell casings, bullet fragments or other possible evidence in the Tasker parking lot or a surrounding wooded area. ATF also brought in specially trained dogs for the search.
Special-agent-in-charge Michael Bouchard of ATF said analysis of any evidence recovered could take "from an hour to the rest of the day" ? or longer if the slug is in poor condition. "We're especially concerned that this has stooped to the level of shooting children ? not that the shooting is connected," he said.
County Executive Douglas Duncan (D) revealed the same dichotomy of caution during a noontime brief in Montgomery.
"Whether they're connected or not, the fear level has racheted up," he said. "There's a real struggle to come to grips with what's happening here," said Duncan, who only hours earlier had attended a funeral for one of last week's victims. He repeated admonitions for citizens to be "very vigilant, very observant."
As the speakers concluded, the chief showed the tension of the last few days. "This is getting to be really, really personal," Moose said, choking up at the microphone. "Our children don't deserve this. Parents, please do your job tonight. Engage your children, be there for them. They're going to need it."
Prince George's investigators were reviewing a red-light traffic camera at the intersection of Kenhill Drive and Collington Road, a short distance from Tasker. Any vehicles leaving the scene of the shooting and heading toward Route 50 would have been captured by the camera if the driver ran the light at that intersection, police said.
At one point, officers gathered at the school raced to a nearby Wal-Mart after a report ? later discounted ? that shots had been fired.
For the first several morning hours, Tasker was a chaotic scene, as parents rushing back parked cars on sidewalks and the grass, running toward the school with panicked looks on their faces. Inside, crowds of parents, some crying, asked officials about their children. Crisis counselors were immediately dispatched.
Across the region, other systems responded quickly also. Montgomery officials put schools on "code blue" status that ordered principals to lock buildings, restrict student movement between buildings and cancel all outdoor or field trip activities. In Howard and the District, outdoor activities were suspended. Washington Metropolitan police increased patrols around schools.
A Loudoun County school's field trip to the National Building Museum in Washington was abruptly cut short when the second-graders were just miles from the museum.
Sanders Corner Elementary School principal William M. Prokopchak said he reached an assistant principal traveling with the children on her cell phone and ordered the buses turned around.
"We decided that it was just prudent," Prokopchak said. "This was in suburban D.C. and one suburb is just like another. I'm a parent myself, and we're taking the actions I would want my children's schools to take."
Prince William County schools nixed all outdoor activities through Tuesday, including sports. Superintendent Edward L. Kelly said he and administrators were following the events in Bowie with a sense of disbelief.
"We are stunned. Absolutely stunned," Kelly said. "The only thing we can hope for is that somewhere, somehow, someone gets a break."
Even as far as Calvert and Charles counties, school officials encouraged parents to keep afternoon kindergartners home and canceled after-school activities and field trips.
Tasker parent Sharon Hartley, 37, came to pick up her 12-year-old son and hugged him tightly. "I feel like I did the day he was born," she said.
James Kim of Bowie returned for his son, a 13-year-old who was in the school at the time of the shooting. "I wasn't scared, but there were students crying because some of the kids knew the kid who was shot," the boy said, standing beside his father.
Pat Shea decided to leave her 13-year-old daughter in class because she feels it's safer for her to be inside.
"All of these incidents have been so close to home," Shea said. And the randomness of the attacks has heightened community fears, probably worse than in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, she said.
"I view this as much as terrorism as what happened September 11th, but this is scarier because there's no rhyme or reason. Though terrible, at least on September 11th you knew they were going after specific targets. In this, you have no way of knowing what the target may be. Anyone could be next."
District Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) spoke during an event at a city firehouse on Georgia Avenue, only about two miles from the scene of Thursday evening's fatal shooting.
"We want to emphasize to people that we've got to . . . carry on with our regular lives," Williams said afterward. "We don't want this person to be the victor here."
? 2002 The Washington Post Company
_____School Restrictions_____
MARYLAND:
Anne Arundel County Schools:
? All schools locked
? After-school activities canceled
? After-school childcare will be provided
? No evening high school classes
? Indoor recess and activities
Baltimore City Schools:
? No afternoon pre-kindergarten
? No outdoor after-school athletic events; indoor events will be held
Calvert County Schools:
? Students being kept inside schools
? No after-school activities
Charles County Schools:
? Heightened security
? Students kept indoors
? After-school activities canceled
? Tuesday field trips canceled
Frederick County Schools:
? Lockdown status
? No students allowed outside
Howard County Schools:
? Modified lockdown status
? No afternoon kindergarten or special education
? No outdoor recess or activities
Montgomery County Schools:
? Code Blue status
? No afternoon pre-k or kindergarten
? Extra security in schools
? All field trips canceled
? Indoor recess and lunch ? All after-school activites canceled
Prince George's County Schools:
? Code Blue status
? All outdoor activities canceled
? Indoor recess and lunch
? No outdoor after-school activities
? No afternoon pre-kindergarten
? All school doors monitored by security
? Increased police presence in schools
Queen Anne's County Schools:
? No after-school activities
DISTRICT:
D.C. Schools:
? No outdoor lunch or recess
? No outdoor after-school activities
? All field trips canceled
Archdiocese of Washington Schools:
? No outdoor lunch or recess
? No afternoon kindergarten or activities
? Aftercare will be provided
VIRGINIA:
Alexandria City Schools:
? No outdoor recess or physical education classes
? After-school activities canceled
? Increased police presence for dismissals
Arlington County Schools:
? All outdoor after-school activities canceled
? Indoor after-school activities will be held
Caroline County Schools:
? Outdoor activities canceled
Fairfax County Schools:
? No outdoor activities
Falls Church City Schools:
? Outdoor activities canceled
? Police officers at each school
Fredericksburg City Schools:
? Lockdown status
? No after-school activities
King George County Schools:
? Lockdown status
Loudoun County Schools:
? Heightened state of alert
? Outdoor activities at each principal's discretion
Manassas City Schools:
? Limited lockdown status
? No outdoor recess or activities
Prince William County Schools:
? No outdoor after-school activities Monday or Tuesday
Spotsylvania County Schools:
? Outdoor activities canceled
Stafford County Schools:
? Outdoor activities canceled
SOURCES: School officials
Aren't 4Ts fun!
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
That's precisely the LAST thing I want to happen... Jarvard being the lagging indicator would likely make 9/11/01 a REGENERACY rather than a crisis, the 4T would involve a shift to conservative authoritarianism to the extent that I'd actually be willing to live in England the rest of my life, and worst of all, my peers (even those born in the late seventies) would be part of a Hero generation which is actually willing to FIGHT for that shift to conservative authoritarianism *barfs guts out*
A one-day (or even several-day) scare might go well with a 3T (e.g. 1999 bomb threats), but if this one (and this extent of security measures) lasts more than a couple of weeks this could be a good sign of 4TI'm starting to understand how the Israelis feel, with the random shootings in the D.C. burbs. Terrorism, perhaps?
See below, printed for educational purposes only.
My daughter has a trip scheduled to the National Museum of Art with her class of second and third graders to look at the Egyptian exhibit. I'll let you know tomorrow if its been cancelled.Teenager Shot Outside Bowie School
By Tracey Reeves
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, October 7, 2002; 1:32 PM
A 13-year-old boy was shot and critically wounded just before school this morning in front of Benjamin Tasker Middle School in Bowie. Across the region, in communities already anxious over last week's deadly sniper attacks, the news of this incident ratcheted up that anxiety even as authorities said they could not immediately say whether the school shooting was related.
The boy's aunt, a nurse who had just dropped the boy at school, heard the shot at 8:09 a.m., and rushed the boy to Bowie Health Center. He was taken by helicopter to Children's Hospital in the District, where he remained in surgery at 1 p.m. Law enforcement from Montgomery County, Prince George's County and the District were at the hospital. A Prince George's official who was with the family initially said an X-ray showed the bullet lodged near his heart with lots of fragments.
At Tasker, which has nearly 1,400 students in seventh and eighth grades, crime scene tape stretched around a grassy, wooded hillside that rises directly across the street from Tasker Middle School, and investigators combed the area looking for shell casings or other evidence. State's Attorney Jack Johnson arrived to be briefed.
As news circulated on radio and television, dozens of worried parents began coming back to pick up their children. School system officials ordered a lockdown of Tasker and all other campuses and urged parents elsewhere to leave their students in place.
"We're on high security alert; we have extra security in buildings," system chief executive officer Iris Metts said. "The situation is very fluid. We're trying to get [Tasker] students home."
She stressed that officials would be "very, very careful with dismissal today" and make decisions about Tuesday class schedules later in the afternoon. Looking grim, she said simply, "We live in very dangerous and unpredictable times."
Police asked anyone with information to call 1-800-673-2777. At an early afternoon briefing, public safety director Fred Thomas confirmed that police had "a few witnesses who we are interviewing." He would not say whether any of those witnesses saw the gunman.
In Montgomery County, police Chief Charles A. Moose said it was "way too early" to say whether the shooting was related to the seven sniper attacks that have killed six people and critically wounded one across the region since Wednesday night.
"Clearly this is an unfolding, evolving situation," Moose said. "We don't want to jump to any conclusions."
Montgomery sent 80 recruits in its public safety academy training to help agents from the federal Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco and Firearms look for shell casings, bullet fragments or other possible evidence in the Tasker parking lot or a surrounding wooded area. ATF also brought in specially trained dogs for the search.
Special-agent-in-charge Michael Bouchard of ATF said analysis of any evidence recovered could take "from an hour to the rest of the day" – or longer if the slug is in poor condition. "We're especially concerned that this has stooped to the level of shooting children – not that the shooting is connected," he said.
County Executive Douglas Duncan (D) revealed the same dichotomy of caution during a noontime brief in Montgomery.
"Whether they're connected or not, the fear level has racheted up," he said. "There's a real struggle to come to grips with what's happening here," said Duncan, who only hours earlier had attended a funeral for one of last week's victims. He repeated admonitions for citizens to be "very vigilant, very observant."
As the speakers concluded, the chief showed the tension of the last few days. "This is getting to be really, really personal," Moose said, choking up at the microphone. "Our children don't deserve this. Parents, please do your job tonight. Engage your children, be there for them. They're going to need it."
Prince George's investigators were reviewing a red-light traffic camera at the intersection of Kenhill Drive and Collington Road, a short distance from Tasker. Any vehicles leaving the scene of the shooting and heading toward Route 50 would have been captured by the camera if the driver ran the light at that intersection, police said.
At one point, officers gathered at the school raced to a nearby Wal-Mart after a report – later discounted – that shots had been fired.
For the first several morning hours, Tasker was a chaotic scene, as parents rushing back parked cars on sidewalks and the grass, running toward the school with panicked looks on their faces. Inside, crowds of parents, some crying, asked officials about their children. Crisis counselors were immediately dispatched.
Across the region, other systems responded quickly also. Montgomery officials put schools on "code blue" status that ordered principals to lock buildings, restrict student movement between buildings and cancel all outdoor or field trip activities. In Howard and the District, outdoor activities were suspended. Washington Metropolitan police increased patrols around schools.
A Loudoun County school's field trip to the National Building Museum in Washington was abruptly cut short when the second-graders were just miles from the museum.
Sanders Corner Elementary School principal William M. Prokopchak said he reached an assistant principal traveling with the children on her cell phone and ordered the buses turned around.
"We decided that it was just prudent," Prokopchak said. "This was in suburban D.C. and one suburb is just like another. I'm a parent myself, and we're taking the actions I would want my children's schools to take."
Prince William County schools nixed all outdoor activities through Tuesday, including sports. Superintendent Edward L. Kelly said he and administrators were following the events in Bowie with a sense of disbelief.
"We are stunned. Absolutely stunned," Kelly said. "The only thing we can hope for is that somewhere, somehow, someone gets a break."
Even as far as Calvert and Charles counties, school officials encouraged parents to keep afternoon kindergartners home and canceled after-school activities and field trips.
Tasker parent Sharon Hartley, 37, came to pick up her 12-year-old son and hugged him tightly. "I feel like I did the day he was born," she said.
James Kim of Bowie returned for his son, a 13-year-old who was in the school at the time of the shooting. "I wasn't scared, but there were students crying because some of the kids knew the kid who was shot," the boy said, standing beside his father.
Pat Shea decided to leave her 13-year-old daughter in class because she feels it's safer for her to be inside.
"All of these incidents have been so close to home," Shea said. And the randomness of the attacks has heightened community fears, probably worse than in the wake of the terrorist attacks on the Pentagon and World Trade Center, she said.
"I view this as much as terrorism as what happened September 11th, but this is scarier because there's no rhyme or reason. Though terrible, at least on September 11th you knew they were going after specific targets. In this, you have no way of knowing what the target may be. Anyone could be next."
District Mayor Anthony A. Williams (D) spoke during an event at a city firehouse on Georgia Avenue, only about two miles from the scene of Thursday evening's fatal shooting.
"We want to emphasize to people that we've got to . . . carry on with our regular lives," Williams said afterward. "We don't want this person to be the victor here."
? 2002 The Washington Post Company
_____School Restrictions_____
MARYLAND:
Anne Arundel County Schools:
• All schools locked
• After-school activities canceled
• After-school childcare will be provided
• No evening high school classes
• Indoor recess and activities
Baltimore City Schools:
• No afternoon pre-kindergarten
• No outdoor after-school athletic events; indoor events will be held
Calvert County Schools:
• Students being kept inside schools
• No after-school activities
Charles County Schools:
• Heightened security
• Students kept indoors
• After-school activities canceled
• Tuesday field trips canceled
Frederick County Schools:
• Lockdown status
• No students allowed outside
Howard County Schools:
• Modified lockdown status
• No afternoon kindergarten or special education
• No outdoor recess or activities
Montgomery County Schools:
• Code Blue status
• No afternoon pre-k or kindergarten
• Extra security in schools
• All field trips canceled
• Indoor recess and lunch • All after-school activites canceled
Prince George's County Schools:
• Code Blue status
• All outdoor activities canceled
• Indoor recess and lunch
• No outdoor after-school activities
• No afternoon pre-kindergarten
• All school doors monitored by security
• Increased police presence in schools
Queen Anne's County Schools:
• No after-school activities
DISTRICT:
D.C. Schools:
• No outdoor lunch or recess
• No outdoor after-school activities
• All field trips canceled
Archdiocese of Washington Schools:
• No outdoor lunch or recess
• No afternoon kindergarten or activities
• Aftercare will be provided
VIRGINIA:
Alexandria City Schools:
• No outdoor recess or physical education classes
• After-school activities canceled
• Increased police presence for dismissals
Arlington County Schools:
• All outdoor after-school activities canceled
• Indoor after-school activities will be held
Caroline County Schools:
• Outdoor activities canceled
Fairfax County Schools:
• No outdoor activities
Falls Church City Schools:
• Outdoor activities canceled
• Police officers at each school
Fredericksburg City Schools:
• Lockdown status
• No after-school activities
King George County Schools:
• Lockdown status
Loudoun County Schools:
• Heightened state of alert
• Outdoor activities at each principal's discretion
Manassas City Schools:
• Limited lockdown status
• No outdoor recess or activities
Prince William County Schools:
• No outdoor after-school activities Monday or Tuesday
Spotsylvania County Schools:
• Outdoor activities canceled
Stafford County Schools:
• Outdoor activities canceled
SOURCES: School officials
Aren't 4Ts fun!
In this saeculum, it's possible to identify a "catalyst" event for the Awakening in the assassination of JFK, but that's not necessarily typical. When we get down to calling Reagan's election a "catalyst" for the Unraveling, it seems to me we've carried the concept to an excess.
The year 1946 as the start of the High is imprecise, but not far off in that the war ended fairly late in 1945, and there was considerable string-tying to be done. The transition from Crisis to High wasn't marked and obvious. (And that's true of transitions to conservative Turnings generally.) I think the line works. I would also agree with S & H that the Awakening began in '64, meaning we had an 18-year High. Where I break with them is in the Unraveling's onset. Ronald Reagan's presidency does not seem to me an Awakening phenomenon but an Unraveling one, yet I would not date the onset in 1980, because it was necessary for him to get past the burst of protest and the slack economy before he was "confirmed" in the presidency, so to speak. So I would date the Unraveling's onset in early 1983 or late 1982, giving us an 18-year Awakening.
And if 9/11/01 is the catalyst for the Crisis era, then we also had an 18-year Third Turning.
Let's use those years for a moment:
High: 1946-1964 Parts of 19 years. Rounds to 18.
Awakening: 1964-1982 18 years and part of another. Rounds to 19.
Unraveling: 1983-2001 18 years and part of another. Rounds to 19.
So, the unraveling isn't abnormally short. Now, if you use the S&H numbers:
High: 1946-1964 18 years
Awakening: 1964-1984 19 years
Unraveling: 1984-2001 17 years. However, I have heard people saying that the unraveling began very early in 1984, and since September was in late 2001, you could say it was 18 for this one.
1987 INTP
When you consider that the previous Crisis era lasted from 1930 to 1945=16 years, this pattern would seem to confirm Mike Alexander's hypothesis that the average length of a Turning and Saeculum have permanently shortened to 18 years and 72 years respectively. The problem I have with this is that if generations are then also 18 years long, then midlife would segue into elderhood at around age 54! Based on the impish apparent lack of maturity of both our current and previous Presidents, I can't see this as possible.
The current Crisis era may very tell which pattern is occurring. It may very well be that we are in for one hell of an anamolously long Fourth Turning to make up for the unusually short past few.
