This guy has been caught mixing fact and fiction in the past, even if unintentionally. But if he is truthful and accurate in this column, then this is some serious 4T news. But can anybody confirm the following:

1) The alleged DeutscheWelle report (or otherwise) that German and Scandinavian finance ministers have blamed the deteriorating global economy specifically on "Bushonomics" and have asked that Bush & Co. step down in order to restore market confidence?

2) That (European?) protests are not so much anti-Iraq war as anti-Bush?

3) That all these South American countries have indicated that they will default if Brazil does and that Putin has indicated that Russia will if these South American countries do?


http://www.almartinraw.com/column74.html

(For educ. and discussion)


BEHIND THE SCENES IN THE BELTWAY
by Al Martin

Denial Ain't Just a River in Egypt;
It's a State of Mind with Bush Supporters

(Oct 7) The economic calamities continue. The German DeutcheWelle news has reported the German finance minister stating that the central cause of the free fall in the global markets is Bushonomics. He also said that he and other European and Scandinavian finance ministers feel that it is a growing imperative that George Bush and Company step down from power in order to attempt to restore some sort of confidence in the marketplaces worldwide.

Of course, this is unprecedented for him to say such a thing publicly. You could tell he was upset because the European markets are being dragged down by the US. It's not any particular anomaly within their own.

The lack of confidence in the Bush administration's economic agenda is dragging down the whole world. He also spoke about how Bush doesn't understand the importance of the stock market's relationship to the underlying economies. The situation is quite tense. The Hong Kong and Tokyo markets have been taking a bath, and we were called down two or three hundred at the market's opening last week. Lines started to form outside of brokerage firms' offices in New York and Chicago as people were trying to take their money out. This has happened before in 1987 on Black Monday.

We're not hyping the situation anymore. Even though Al Martin Raw.com economic coverage and analysis has been ahead of the curve all along, the curve has caught up to us. Some of the people (radio show listeners) have accused me of spreading rumors and I've replied that time will tell whether I'm a panic monger - or whether my points are valid. But times are getting pretty desperate.

Anti-Bush rallies continue around the world, in Rome, London and many American cities. Anti-Bush demonstrations are everywhere, even though American mainstream media tries to say that these are people who are protesting the idea of the United States going into Iraq.

CNN-3, the world news network channel, however, showed a selected sampling in their 80-second clip of different anti-Bush protests in capital cities around the world. It's true that a lot of the signs were about Iraq, but a lot of the signs were also about the economy, saying in essence, Bush step down for the sake of the world economy. These anti-Bush rallies in the United States and abroad are not as narrowly focused, as the Bush controlled media would like to have the American people believe.

When you watch CNBC and FNN, you get the definitive sense when they interview old-time traders on the floor and in the pits in Chicago, even these old-timers are saying, Bush has got to step down. It's time because the situation is getting out of hand here. There is an inkling of this in the whole nation now. It starts in the financial community, which is obviously where you would see it first.

And now the greatest fear of the Bush administration is here - people are beginning to link the Bushonian economic agenda with the massive downturn in the markets. If enough people make that linkage (which is the linkage that I incessantly hammer on), there ain't going to be any more Bush Administration.

George Bush is still getting away with being able to say that the reason the markets are under pressure is when he came in there was a speculative bubble and the air was already bleeding out of that bubble (which is true) and that led us into a recession and there was the additional pressure of 9-11 and these have combined to make the problem. In this way he has been able to divorce his economic policies from what is happening in the marketplace. But now more and more people are beginning to understand that although the market is under pressure, the pressure from these events is over -- and has been over for a number of

The selling pressure isn't being created through the residual effects of a bursting bubble or the residual effects of a recession or 9-11.

The best time to hammer the Bush Administration would be about now, when people are starting to get their 401(K) and IRA statements. We're coming into October, traditionally the worst month of the year for the market anyway. We're coming off what will be one of the worst Septembers (ever) in the history of the stock market.

Then when people get their IRA/ 401(K) statements and they still see the market going down in the first week of October, people will begin to throw in the towel. That's when the Democrats (if they're smart) should launch a major offensive. The timing plays in pretty well for the Democrats - if they take advantage of this the right way. They have to be stupid - not to?

This is the time when we could really make a difference - when the public is starting to make the linkage that we have consistently said exists all along. Look at what we've said in the past. Look in the archives of our columns. We told you this was happening.

The Fake-Out Rallies in the Dow Jones also continue. It should be noted that for the first time in the last four months the nation's manufacturing sector is beginning to weaken. Of course, it was manufacturing that had been one of the very few strong components of the economy. Construction spending also fell again and is now at a new six year low.

Al Martin Raw.com is predicting that the end of the housing bubble is certainly in sight. In other words, construction starts (commercial, residential and industrial) have been falling six months in a row, which classically signaled a downturn in the housing market. The last time this happened was in 1932, which obviously didn't bode well for the coming years.

Housing starts and housing resales have fallen four months in a row. The commercial end of the real estate market has already turned soft. These are all precursors and indicators that the housing bubble is beginning to break. We must remember that it is the housing bubble and the money provided to the economy through refinancing of mortgages that has been one of the very few things, which has kept economic growth positive, and consumer spending relatively high.

This is the traditional theory of economics, one of the underpinnings of the way our economy works and traditionally it is what softens economic downturns.

During an economic downturn, interest rates fall and people refinance their mortgage and their payments drop they then have an "extra" amount of money left to commit to consumer spending.

What is different in this cycle (and this is something which hardly anyone is looking at or trying to understand the impact down the road) is that this time refinancers of mortgages were not following the typical pattern of the past and simply refinancing. They weren't simply refinancing their existing mortgages; they were taking out money from the equity of their homes. In other words, they were refinancing a mortgage for more money than it originally was in order to bleed cash out of their homes-as the housing bubble caused prices to rise. This is a new phenomenon. This bleeding out of cash is what has sustained big- ticket consumer spending like cars.

The downside of this (which we haven't seen before) is that what's going to happen when housing prices come down and equity begins to fall below a new market value, as market values begin to fall, nobody is looking at this impact. Just as there has been a negative wealth effect in stocks, since George Bush has been elected, now we're going to see a negative wealth effect in housing which has traditionally been the biggest household asset.

Historically there has been no precedent for this - people sucking out a lot of cash into a rising market. We've seen housing prices go up. As Mike Malloy mentioned on his radio show, houses, which transacted in 1998 and 1999 for $170,000 are now selling for $350,000. People are just bleeding out all the cash because they're seeing the economy going to hell in a hand basket.

As the housing bubble begins to burst and as housing prices start to come back to reality, people who have borrowed against home equity lines will have to come up with cash as their debt to equity ratio turns negative. Or you're going to see a hell of a lot of houses on the market. People are simply going to walk away from them.

There was an interesting note in the National Realtors Association real estate quarterly report on this very phenomenon, i.e. there is a huge number of people that realtors have seen refinance their houses, taking out all the equity and then some because we are in a consumer credit situation where you can take out 125%.

When people have seen the value of their homes increase by $100,000 or more in the last three years, the National Realtors Association even warns about this - that there are a lot of people that understand that at some point this housing bubble is going to burst, who purposely intend to walk away from it. They've bled everything out of it and then some and now they're simply going to walk away from it.

We are setting ourselves up for a debacle in the housing market such that we have never witnessed. For those who can put cash on the side, in one or two years, we are looking at potentially the greatest buyers' market in housing to ever come down the pike.

But this is an enormous negative effect on the economy. It is a psychological negative wealth effect at a time when consumer and investor confidence is already the lowest it has ever been - even lower than it was during the Depression. Then when the housing bubble bursts and people walk away, there will be an additional 300,000 defaulted units a month - coming into an already falling market. What is the impact of that going to be when there aren't any buyers around?

The economy continues to lose jobs at 100,000 per month. The National Consumer Credit Association revised the personal bankruptcy filing estimates for calendar year 2002 from 1.3 million to 1.5 million. This ties into what we have said before about all the negative economic shoes yet to drop. This is a new one being created in housing at a time when banks are beginning to realize the effects of $500 billion worth of defaulted corporate paper.

The defaulted real estate notes could be as much as $1.5 trillion. Add to this 2 million personal bankruptcies. The economy is still losing jobs at the rate of 100,000 a month. Bushonomics is becoming more telling. There have been leaks from the Treasury Department about senior unnamed treasury officials expect a double dip recession. Every economic statistic seems to indicate that we are going to the Classic W bottom.

All the financial shows on GovNetMedia (Government Network Media) especially CNN, Fox News and MSNBC, have trotted out Republican analysts who kept repeating "buy stocks," when they ignore that the quality of the "rally" was terrible. In other words, volume was lackluster. This was essentially a short-covering rally. There were a lot of buy- stops by short-sellers above the market. The longs saw an opportunity to run it. When the market could not close under the previous low of 7532, it made us absolutely prime for a technical rally in the market.

Al Martin Raw.com would still classify the rally in old-fashioned market terms - a dead cat bounce. The most recent dead cat bounce was the time when we traded down to 7532 and rallied all the way back to 8900. This is a phenomenon, which takes place when the market gets excessively short and fails to break below the previous lows. Then the technicians get bullish and there are still shorts in the market and they have to place buy- stops above the markets to protect themselves. The longs (so-called spec or speculative longs) see those stops on the books, they know it's a light volume market, and they just run the stops, and the stops feed on themselves. That brings in a little retail buying (so-called sucker buying) and voila! the classic dead cat

The CBO came up with a new estimate for the expenses for a Bush War on Iraq -- $60 to $200 billion up front. The CBO now estimates it will take $9 billion a month in Iraq indefinitely. That is an indefinite expenditure. You add that onto the $2 billion a month we are already spending in Afghanistan and elsewhere in the world fighting the "War on Terrorism." Then you add $1 billion a month being spent on "domestic" war on terrorism and you see that 40% of the net deficit is coming from the "War on Terrorism."

Bushonomics combined with the threat of Iraq is going to push the economy back into the Double Dip scenario at a time when the Treasury is already starved for cash. Then the Bush administration will be able to say that they've got to accelerate the Republican tax cuts for the rich in order to provide additional economic stimulus.

What they aren't going to say is that the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) calculated that the last $1.3 trillion tax cut for the rich provided only a three tenths of one percent lift to GDP. But Bush is going to say and a lot of people are going to believe it -- we need more tax cuts for the Republican Rich to provide economic stimulus. So he'll be able to get past Congress the acceleration of tax cuts that were already planned for the Republican Rich in 2003 and 2004 and maybe as far as 2006. He could potentially get another trillion dollars worth of tax relief for the Republican Rich.

The great First Agenda of the Bush Cabal has been accomplished, namely that the top 1% of the people (78% of whom are Republican) control 2/3 of all the private wealth of the nation.

The Second Agenda of the Bush Cabal is to turn the United States into a defacto tax- free nation for the Republican Rich. Bush Jr. will be able to accomplish even more than what was done during the twelve years of his father's regime.

It is very bleak, and yet polls indicate that the Republicans may be able to regain control of the Senate and pick up seats in the House, which would put Congress in the position of being nothing more than a rubber stamp. If you think Bush is dangerous now? Remember -- Rubber Stamp Congresses make Bushes extra-dangerous to the wallet of the average American citizen.

The American people had better get on their hands and knees and hope that Colin Powell stays Secretary of State. Powell and the little group of people around him are the only moderating voice within the Bushonian Cabal. If Powell goes and Bush replaces him with somebody from the Hard Right, they will have complete control and with a Rubber Stamp Congress - watch out.

As Caesar once said, nations do not lose wars because they run out of soldiers, but because they run out of silver. That commentary is very apropos to the current situation - particularly if we go into Iraq and Bush has his way and expands the "War on Terrorism" even beyond that.

Even with an army of one and a half million troops, we could actually lose the "War on Terrorism" because the Treasury runs dry - - unless all of the Republican offshore slush funds are repatriated. It's no wonder the Republicans are getting it out. That's what we recommend. If we go into Iraq, Bush should put a special tax (a Republican War Tax) on shadowy offshore Republican controlled accounts.

In other cheery news, the Brazilian left- wing candidate Fernando di Silva has won the presidential election. Silva, a communist, has stated that if he is elected he is seriously considering repudiating all of Brazil's $332 billion foreign debt. The presidents of Argentina, Uruguay, Peru and Ecuador, who combined are carrying $1 trillion in debt, have said that if Brazil defaults, they will default as well. This then engendered a comment from Russian President Vladimir Putin who said that if South America should go into a cascading debt default that Russia would most likely be forced to do the same. Putin said that if this scenario were to come to pass, the cascading repudiation of debt, the world's economy would collapse within thirty days.

In more cheery news, a broker from Bear Stearns in New York commented on the people lined up in front of brokerage firms, not only selling their stock, but also demanding a check. They've never seen such fear in their lives, he said. Not only are people frightened of the markets, but also because of recent corporate scandals and other revelations of Republican Scamscateerism, they're even frightened of keeping their money at securities firms. They showed lines forming and people pounding on the window yelling give me my money.

Now that your 401(K) statements have been turned into 201(K) statements and if you want your 201(K) statements to become 101(K) statements, vote for Republicans in the upcoming election.

You could call it the Terminal Economy. The Americans are doing it to themselves and they deserve what they get.


AL MARTIN is America's foremost expert on corporate and government fraud. A relentless whistleblower, he has written a book called, "The Conspirators: Secrets of an Iran Contra Insider," which chronicles his adventures with the Bush Cabal (National Liberty Press, Order Line: 866-317-1390). This detailed account of government criminal operations, namely State- sanctioned fraud, drug trafficking and illicit weapons sales, is unprecedented in publishing history. Al Martin is also well known for his great charm and profound insights into world events, and he is frequently interviewed on many talk radio shows across the nation. His weekly column "Behind the Scenes in the Beltway" is published regularly online at Al Martin Raw, (http://www.almartinraw.com).

Originally Posted by Stonewall Patton

This guy has been caught mixing fact and fiction in the past, even if unintentionally. But if he is truthful and accurate in this column, then this is some serious 4T news. But can anybody confirm the following:

2) That (European?) protests are not so much anti-Iraq war as anti-Bush?

I think that's pretty much a given.

Al Martin, from above

You could call it the Terminal Economy. The Americans are doing it to themselves and they deserve what they get.

Obviously I'm not in any position to corroborate anything he wrote. However, the article paints a scary picture if there is any truth to those statements. I do take issue with the above statement though. I didn't vote for Bush, and neither did a majority of Americans. The son of a gun stole the election, so I don't think it's appropiate to say we deserve any of the policies the Bush administration is cramming down our throat.
[/quote]

Originally Posted by The Wonk

My daughter has a trip scheduled to the National Museum of Art with her class of second and third graders to look at the Egyptian exhibit. I'll let you know tomorrow if its been cancelled.

Aren't 4Ts fun!

My daughter's field trip was cancelled. She got on the school bus anticipating the trip. I called the school to see if it was still on (I was supposed to be a chaperone) and found out that it was called off. My poor daughter! :cry:

As evidence on the side of a Fourth Turning, I submit the wave of antiwar protests that have begun. This will be confirmed if, as we actually go to war in Iraq, the size and frequency of such protests grow, and if they continue as Bush tries to take us into other wars after that one -- hopefully with declining success.

One sign of a 4T is the resurgence of political issues from the Awakening after a dormant period in the 3T.

Jenny, I'm sorry about your daughter's field trip. That sucks. I hope they catch this guy soon. :-(

Brian:

A few months ago, you still believed that our court system had sufficient integrity to restrain the Bush administration's unconstitutional and egregious excesses. But today we find an appellate court reversing a lower court's decision thereby handing a victory to the Bush administration. Can we count on either the full circuit court or Supreme Court to do what is right, honor the fundamental law, and tell the Bush administration to go to hell? What is the state of your confidence at this point?

The whole point of public trials is to ensure that government cannot arrest whoever they damn well please, try them on trumped on charges, and deport, incarcerate or execute them in secrecy. Any sensitive information can be discussed in camera as has always been done in the past. This move toward the unverifiable secrecy typical of totalitarian regimes absolutely must not stand.


http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmp...ks_detainees_3

(For educ. and discussion)


Appeals court says deportation hearings can be closed, backing Justice Department on security
Tue Oct 8, 3:07 PM ET

By DAVID B. CARUSO, Associated Press Writer

PHILADELPHIA - A federal appeals court ruled Tuesday that immigration hearings may be closed by the government, dealing a blow to media organizations who sought access to hearings involving foreigners swept up in the nation's terrorism investigation.



The three-judge panel of the 3rd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals (news - web sites) reversed a lower court ruling and said the attorney general has the right to close the hearings for reasons of national security. Justice Department (news - web sites) lawyers had argued that national security would be threatened if reporters and others were allowed to attend.

American Civil Liberties Union (news - web sites) attorney Lee Gelernt, who argued the case on behalf of two New Jersey publications, said the group is considering whether to appeal to the Supreme Court or ask for the case to be reheard by the full 3rd Circuit.

"We are disappointed that the court has sanctioned the use of secret hearings to deprive people of their liberty," he said. "Locking people up in secret hearings is profoundly at odds with the basic principles of fairness."

For nearly a year, reporters and members of the public have been barred from deportation hearings for hundreds being held in the nation's terrorism investigation.

Media organizations sued to reopen the hearings, or to allow them to be closed only if the government could persuade a judge that secrecy was necessary.

The two-judge majority disagreed, however, writing that the types of deportation hearings being closed were "extremely narrow" and that the attorney general is in a better position than immigration judges to determine their importance to national security.

If a terrorist cell learned one of its members had been detained, the judges reasoned, it might flee, destroy evidence, kill witnesses, modify its methods of entering the country or even accelerate plans for an attack.

"Even minor pieces of evidence that might appear innocuous to us would provide valuable clues to a person within the terrorist network," Chief Judge Edward R. Becker wrote.

U.S. Circuit Judge Anthony J. Scirica dissented.

The New Jersey Law Journal and the North Jersey Media Group, which publishes the Herald News of West Paterson, had challenged the rules in March.

A federal judge in Newark ruled in May that the secrecy rules were too broad, and said the government could only close hearings on a case-by-case basis. The ruling was stayed while the case was appealed.

The 3rd Circuit's decision only applies to immigration hearings in its coverage area ? New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware and the Virgin Islands. The government's secrecy rules also have been challenged elsewhere.

In a similar case in Michigan, the 6th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals ordered the Justice Department in August to hold a new, open detention hearing for a Lebanese man who co-founded an Islamic charity suspected of funneling money to terrorists.

The Justice Department has until later this month to decide whether to ask the court for a rehearing in that case, which was brought by four newspapers and Rep. John Conyers (news, bio, voting record), a Michigan Democrat.

Unlike criminal or civil trials, immigration hearings are not always public. The Justice Department had argued that while detention hearings have traditionally been open, a 40-year-old law allowed judges to exclude the public if doing so was in the nation's best interest.

This is from "The Onion", so it's supposed to be a joke! Still, it's illuminating, if not factual:

From "News in Brief":

American People Shrug, Line Up For Fingerprinting

WASHINGTON, DC—Assuming that there must be a good reason for the order, U.S. citizens lined up at elementary schools and community centers across the nation Monday for government-mandated fingerprinting. "I'm not exactly sure what this is all about," said Ft. Smith, AR, resident Meredith Lovell while waiting in line. "But given all the crazy stuff that's going on these days, I'm sure the government has a very good reason." Said Amos Hawkins, a Rockford, IL, delivery driver: "I guess this is another thing they have to do to ensure our freedom."

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

Originally Posted by AlexMnWi

I would also agree with S & H that the Awakening began in '64, meaning we had an 18-year High. Where I break with them is in the Unraveling's onset. Ronald Reagan's presidency does not seem to me an Awakening phenomenon but an Unraveling one, yet I would not date the onset in 1980, because it was necessary for him to get past the burst of protest and the slack economy before he was "confirmed" in the presidency, so to speak. So I would date the Unraveling's onset in early 1983 or late 1982, giving us an 18-year Awakening.

I agree with that. The late bull market began in late summer (August?) 1982 and lasted 18 years until March 2000. So did the times of low inflation, lower interest rates, and flaunting of flashy wealth. In retrospect, although I remember seeing changes from the 70s in the late summer of 1982 (the girls in Boston were actually dressing UP), the first full year that really seemed Unravelling was 1983.

And if 9/11/01 is the catalyst for the Crisis era, then we also had an 18-year Third Turning.

Let's use those years for a moment:
High: 1946-1964 Parts of 19 years. Rounds to 18.
Awakening: 1964-1982 18 years and part of another. Rounds to 19.
Unraveling: 1983-2001 18 years and part of another. Rounds to 19.

So, the unraveling isn't abnormally short. Now, if you use the S&H numbers:

High: 1946-1964 18 years
Awakening: 1964-1984 19 years
Unraveling: 1984-2001 17 years. However, I have heard people saying that the unraveling began very early in 1984, and since September was in late 2001, you could say it was 18 for this one.

When you consider that the previous Crisis era lasted from 1930 to 1945=16 years, this pattern would seem to confirm Mike Alexander's hypothesis that the average length of a Turning and Saeculum have permanently shortened to 18 years and 72 years respectively.

It's not just Mike Alexander's idea. It's also that of David McGuinness. I have been advocating it off and on for almost two years. Furthermore, ~18-year turnings have been the average for more than 150 years, so long as you use the average period between equivalent turnings in adjacent saecula. Here are some examples, using S&H's own dates.

1844-1908 (74 years) Unravelling to Unravelling
1860-1929 (69 years) Crisis to Crisis
1865-1946 (81 years) High to High
1886-1964 (78 years) Awakening to Awakening
1908-1984 (76 years) Unravelling to Unravelling
1929-2001 (72 years) Crisis to Crisis (provisional)

Using only the first five lines, which are from "The Fourth Turning", the average length of a saeculum has been 75.6 years between 1844 and 1984. Divide that by 4, and the average length of a turning has been 18.9 years for that same period. Including the last line (which I favor) gives an average of 75 years per saeculum and 18.75 per turning. The average saeculum has not been near the orthodox S&H 84 years (earlier 88 years) for almost two centuries!

The one line that throws off the analysis is the 1865-1946 High to High. Mike, Dave McG, and I (and lately Stonewall) have suggested that the Civil War Crisis extended until at least 1869, with the generational revolution that threw out the Transcendentals with the Gilded, and possibly as late as 1871 (to align with the climax/resolution of the Crisis in Europe--Unification of Germany, Unification of Italy, the Franco-Prussian War, and the overthrow of the younger Napoleon's empire and its replacement with the Paris Commune and the Third Republic), or even to 1876 and the formal end of Reconstruction. Using the 1869-1946 dates and S&H's own dates for the rest gives a span of 77 years for that saeculum, an average of 74.8 years per saeculum, and 18.7 years per average turning. The 1871-1946 dates gives a span of 75 years for that saeculum, 74.4 years per average saeculum, and 18.6 years per average turning. I could continue, but then I'd have to start tinkering with the start date of the Gay 90s/Edwardian Era/Belle Epoque Awakening!

The problem I have with this is that if generations are then also 18 years long, then midlife would segue into elderhood at around age 54! Based on the impish apparent lack of maturity of both our current and previous Presidents, I can't see this as possible.

Phase of life is the weakest link in S&H's conception of how the saeculum works. Fortunately, it seems to be the one that is most likely not one of their ideas!

The current Crisis era may very tell which pattern is occurring. It may very well be that we are in for one hell of an anamolously long Fourth Turning to make up for the unusually short past few.

My prediction--Crisis climax/resolution before 2020!

Originally Posted by Vince Lamb '59

Phase of life is the weakest link in S&H's conception of how the saeculum works. Fortunately, it seems to be the one that is most likely not one of their ideas!

My prediction--Crisis climax/resolution before 2020!

Could you please explain further why you believe phase of life is the "Weakest Link" in the Theory, Vince? It seems like an integral part to me.

I personally would like to see the current Crisis end prior to 2020, because, as Alex said, "It makes me younger when it's all over". But I'm not especially hopeful that this will be the case, nor am I that we'll have a triumphant WW2-style climax and resolution.

Originally Posted by Kevin Parker '59

Could you please explain further why you believe phase of life is the "Weakest Link" in the Theory, Vince? It seems like an integral part to me.

I personally would like to see the current Crisis end prior to 2020, because, as Alex said, "It makes me younger when it's all over". But I'm not especially hopeful that this will be the case, nor am I that we'll have a triumphant WW2-style climax and resolution.

If this 4T were a purely domestic one, then it would likely end either in 2020 or 2021. In Generations, S&H stated that a secular crisis would likely climax as the final birth year cohorts of the Millies reach their late teens. If 1999 is the last year of birth for the Millies, then the 4T would most likely climax somewhere from about 2015 to about 2018.

Back in the Revolutionary saeculum, this would work because of the distance in space and time between America and Europe, and the fact that Europe became engaged in its own Crisis, separate from that of America's. However, here in the MilSaec, such is not the case. America is the world superpower militarily and economically. Because of the truly global nature of the economy, and the fact that the world is much smaller, America cannot remain as isolated from world affairs for the duration of the 4T.

The fact is, in this 4T, we will confront a "shortage of resources". We will confront energy, water, and other resource (food?) shortages that will threaten civilization. We will face other material shortages, such as that of industrial resources, while at the same time confronting the evils of corporate/economic imperialism. Also, we will be facing real or perceived environmental emergencies. Possibilities range from increased drought (remember the Dust Bowl? The Great Plains saw these same conditions over the summer), loss of farmland due to industrial agriculture, a collapse of many fisheries, possible global plagues (AIDS now has its sights set on Asia and Eastern Europe for devastation, or how about a sudden outbreak of mad cow?), truly global war involving EVERYONE, or climate change (a slow global warming, or even worse, a sudden global cooldown, or a nuclear winter). And one of these global catastrophes will necessitate the creation of a Type I Civilization.

Because the rest of the world is about 3 to about 8 years behind, that could cause the Millennial 4T to stretch out to about 2025 in America. If the 4T is still mostly national, then it will still climax in the time frame of 2015 to 2018, while the resolution could stretch on for an unusually long time. If the 4T is indeed purely global, then the 4T would climax around 2020.

Or, given the enormous weight of the United States, it could be that the rest of the world gets dragged into a 4T early, especially if a US 4T causes a global economic meltdown, or even a collapse of the UN, and most trade and political agreements that were present since World War II. If so, then it is likely that the rest of the world enters 4T by about 2004 or 2005. So it could be that the rest of the world eventually catches up to US saecular time.

The New York Review of Books
October 24, 2002

The New Age of Tyranny
By Mark Lilla


http://www.nybooks.com/articles/15757




And so we find ourselves at an impasse today. For as long as anyone living can remember, the fundamental political problem of our time has been captured, well or not, by the slogan "totalitarianism or democracy," a distinction thought useful for the purposes of serious political analysis and public rhetoric alike. That age is definitely past. As the threat of totalitarianism has receded we find in its wake few functioning democracies, only a variety of mixed regimes and tyrannies that pose new challenges to our understanding and our policies. From Zimbabwe to Libya, from Algeria to Iraq, from the Central Asian republics to Burma, from Pakistan to Venezuela, we discover nations that are neither totalitarian nor democratic, nations where the prospects of building durable democracies in the near future are limited or nil. The democratic West does not face an "axis of evil" today, it faces the geography of a new age of tyranny. That means we live in a world where we will be forced to distinguish, strategically and rhetorically, among different species of tyranny, and among different sorts of minimally decent political regimes that might not be modern or democratic, but would be a definite improvement over tyranny. As yet, we have no geographers of this new terrain. It will take more than a generation, apparently, before two centuries of forgetfulness about tyranny can themselves be forgotten.

Underline-VKS

It's been suggested that our Crisis will most closely resemble the Glorious Revolution. Perhaps if the Crisis is mainly domestic the resolution will be comparable in magniture-which was enough to empower a Civic generation.

3T response to 4T problem?


Screw you!
You -- with the 401(k). Yeah, I'm talking to you.

AUSTIN, Texas -- We just lost the whole ballgame on corporate reform -- without the news even making it to the front page. The sick, sad tidings were tucked away discreetly on the business pages: "SEC Chief Hedges on Accounting Regulator." Now there's a sexy headline.
All of you who were shafted by Enron, shucked by Worldcom, jived by Global Crossing, everyone whose 401(k) is now a 201(k) (I think that's Paul Begala's line), you just got screwed again. They're not going to fix it.

They've already called off the reform effort; it's over. Corporate muscle showed up and shut it down. Forget expensing options, independent directors, going after offshore shams, derivatives regulation. For that matter, forget even basic reforms like separating the auditing and consulting functions of accounting firms and rotating accounting firms every few years. Bottom line: It's all going to happen again. We learned zip from the entire financial collapse. Our political system is too bought-off to respond intelligently.

Even the normally impeccable Lou Dobbs had taken to referring to SEC Chairman Harvey Pitt as "a reformer," a usage that stretches the language. Pitt, President Bush's appointee to the chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission and a career-long mercenary for the securities industry, is the lawyer who memorably advised in one law journal article: If you get in trouble, shred the evidence. He came in promising to make the SEC "a kinder, gentler place for accountants." This unpromising champion of reform -- appointed to keep the corporations happy -- came under such heavy political fire during the financial collapse that he was suddenly out there flirting with Paul Volcker, Arthur Levitt and other genuinely concerned citizens with actual ideas about how to fix this ghastly mess.

No mas. According to The New York Times: "Harvey L. Pitt, under pressure from Republicans and former clients in the accounting industry, is backing away from the choice he and other members of the SEC favored to lead the new federal agency that will oversee the industry. Industry executives and at least one prominent Republican lawmaker complained that the top choice, John H. Biggs, was too tough on the industry."

Biggs, the citizen in question, is head of the pension investment plan TIAA-CREF -- not exactly a commie. Nevertheless, he has spoken up strongly for the need to make companies more stringently accountable for stock options, making companies rotate their auditors every few years, and for separating the auditing and consulting functions of accounting firms. Gee, how bold and daring of him. Quel overthrow of capitalism is implied by these obvious, fundamental reforms.

The Sarbanes bill set up a new five-member board to oversee the accounting industry. Biggs was the much-touted choice to head this board -- both Pitt and another SEC commissioner had announced their support -- when, oops, the accounting industry weighed in. "Congressional aides and current and former SEC officials say the episode illustrates the continued political influence of the accounting profession despite its defeat... on the Sarbanes bill." Duh.

Lynn Turner, former chief accountant for the SEC, told the Times, "It appears that the accounting firms, the Republicans and now chairman Pitt are trying to circumvent the Sarbanes legislation by making certain that the board does not include a reform-minded person: If we lose Biggs, we lose a reform-minded board."

The ever-flexible Rep. Michael Oxley, R-Ohio, chairman of the House committee that oversees the SEC, is one of my favorite players in the corporate scandals. First, he was against reform. Then the pressure for reform got so strong even the White House rolled over in front of it, and Our Man Oxley became a reformer, too, signing on to the Sarbanes bill. But now he wants a person of "moderate views," as opposed to this reincarnation of Lenin, the head of a major pension fund.

You will not be amazed to learn that Oxley's major contributors are securities and investment firms, commercial banks, insurance, finance and credit companies, and accounting firms. You got to dance with them what brung you.

The Wall Street Journal reports that in addition to pressure from Oxley, Pitt ran up against major lobbying muscle from the accounting industry and further bobbled the appointment by failing to consult two new SEC commissioners. So now we are to get an industry-approved board -- just what we need. The Senate Governmental Affairs Committee issued its report on Enron on Sunday, blaming the SEC for "systemic and catastrophic failure." It is a comprehensive and utterly damning evaluation about which, it now appears, the Pitt-led SEC is prepared to do absolutely nothing.

Several months ago, after it was disclosed that Pitt had met with the CEOs of some companies then under investigation by the SEC, The Wall Street Journal's editorial board (not to be confused with The Wall Street Journal -- I'm convinced those people don't even read their own paper) called for Pitt's resignation. Must have been a blue moon, because they were right.


http://www.workingforchange.com/arti...m?ItemID=13896

I attended my school's PTA board meeting last night (I'm the Treasurer). As you know, there has been a sniper in the metro area shooting people at random. On Monday, a middle-school student was shot on the way to school. Here is how my daughter's school has responded.

Kids stay indoors. No outdoor recess or outdoor physical education. Meanwhile, we've had lovely sunny 70-degree days.

A Tuesday field trip to the National Museum of Art to look at the Egyptian exhibit was cancelled for the second and third graders.

A Wednesday field trip to see a Shakespeare play was cancelled for the fourth and fifth graders.

No outdoor afterschool activities (like soccer practice).

When the kids are outdoors (boarding and deboarding school busses), they notice an increased police presence, plus helicopters overhead.

Of course, the kids are all antsy and the teachers are exhausted, trying to channel the energy from school kids forced to stay indoors.

Of course, these measures are only temporary. They were supposed to be lifted today, but since its raining, the kids won't go outside today either. Not to mention the fact that there was another shooting last night.

I wonder if this type of protection will be a constant feature of elementary school life around 2010? Wake me up when its the High again!

Anyone had a look at the stock market lately? Makes for a convincing argument that we're seeing the initial stages of a slow motion Great Devaluation, IMO.

Originally Posted by alias

All of you who were shafted by Enron, shucked by Worldcom, jived by Global Crossing, everyone whose 401(k) is now a 201(k) (I think that's Paul Begala's line), you just got screwed again. They're not going to fix it.

They've already called off the reform effort; it's over. Corporate muscle showed up and shut it down. Forget expensing options, independent directors, going after offshore shams, derivatives regulation. For that matter, forget even basic reforms like separating the auditing and consulting functions of accounting firms and rotating accounting firms every few years. Bottom line: It's all going to happen again. We learned zip from the entire financial collapse. Our political system is too bought-off to respond intelligently.

It will only "happen again" if people are gullible enough to let it. Please keep in mind; enough information about Enron, Worldcom, et al, was available in the public domain that anyone who cared to educate themselves and take some interest in their own investments could have (and many did) seen the warning signs and saved themselves a lot of grief. It's fairly likely that, even the dullest investors will not be caught by the same sort of thing again (although the article's writer doesn't seem to have a very high view of himself, since he claims to have "learned zip" -- oh well, I guess there's always a few who don't learn...)

.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

It will only "happen again" if people are gullible enough to let it. Please keep in mind; enough information about Enron, Worldcom, et al, was available in the public domain that anyone who cared to educate themselves and take some interest in their own investments could have (and many did) seen the warning signs and saved themselves a lot of grief. It's fairly likely that, even the dullest investors will not be caught by the same sort of thing again (although the article's writer doesn't seem to have a very high view of himself, since he claims to have "learned zip" -- oh well, I guess there's always a few who don't learn...)
.

You have much to learn about financial markets.

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

You have much to learn about financial markets.

Is this a rebuttal or agreement? :-?

Originally Posted by jds1958xg

Anyone had a look at the stock market lately? Makes for a convincing argument that we're seeing the initial stages of a slow motion Great Devaluation, IMO.

Where have you been?? The "Great Devaluation" started in March 2001.

If the interests of stockholders are not being represented in our legal system, it is up to stockholders to do something about it. Nothing is stopping stockholders from getting their own lobbyists and PAC's, influencing the platforms of political parties, and in general working the system.

In the meanwhile, nothing is stopping stockholders from being a lot more reluctant to believe what our current generation of professional management (CEO's, etc) tells them about a given company's prospects.

There should already be a market for financial information from a "question authority" attitude and perspective.

In fact, there have been analysts whose pessimism has been born out recently.

Nothing that is happening in the market is really all that new. It all happened in the '20's.

I already notice we don't see those commercials suggesting that some truck driver can buy an island just by getting an e-brokerage account and buying some stock. You can't say nothing has changed. People's attitudes have changed.

Evidence that the Mormon Church (and the Stae of Utah)is entering the 4T:

WASHINGTON -- On Saturday, Utah Sen. Bob Bennett sat in Salt Lake City's LDS Church Conference Center and heard Apostle Russell M. Nelson tell the faith's semiannual General Conference that, "As a church, we must renounce war and proclaim peace."

On Monday, Bennett, a devout Mormon, took the floor of the Senate chamber in the nation's capital to add his voice to those in favor of giving President Bush authority to wage war on Iraq and Saddam Hussein.

Squaring the admonishment to be "personal peacemakers" with backing a pre-emptive strike against Iraq was not difficult for the Utah Republican, who found Nelson's talk not only a call for global peace, but a reminder that church members have an obligation to their country to support freedom.

"I interpreted his remarks that members of the church should do everything they can to promote peace, and I certainly hope I do," Bennett said Wednesday, a day after he was one of 10 senators to receive a top-secret White House briefing on the threat posed by Iraq. "I look to the 134th section of the Doctrine and Covenants, that says I will be responsible to the Lord for the decisions I make as a legislator, and that's very sobering and I take it very seriously."

Bennett said Nelson used "scriptural evidence" that Mormons have a duty to support their country if a decision is made to go to war.

"The decision to go to war is not yours, it's the decision of the state in which you live and if the state decides to go to war, you are not responsible for that decision," he said.

Originally Posted by takascar2

Originally Posted by jds1958xg

Anyone had a look at the stock market lately? Makes for a convincing argument that we're seeing the initial stages of a slow motion Great Devaluation, IMO.

Where have you been?? The "Great Devaluation" started in March 2001.

Heck, if you go by the Dow it began on January 14, 2000 (intraday). Although the Dow closed up on that day, its all time peak of just under 12,000 was higher than the close.

Originally Posted by Sanford

You can't say nothing has changed. People's attitudes have changed.

This is exactly what I was saying . . .

Hours after the Senate votes to authorize action in Iraq, former U. S. president Jimmy Carter is awarded the Nobel Peace Prize.

How's that for irony?