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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 267







Post#6651 at 04-13-2003 08:52 PM by Jim Blowers [at Virginia joined Aug 2001 #posts 55]
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Still Third Turning but a whirlpool coming up

I say we are still in the Third Turning. This war ended quickly, and was accompanied by numerous media events; even the toppling of the central statue in Baghdad may have been a media event. This war will likely be followed by a period of prosperity, which among other things may guarantee Bush's reelection in 2004. The REAL Fourth Turning may lie ahead: the running out of cheap oil, for instance.

Also I note that in the recent edition of The Futurist, things seem to be approaching a singularity, around 2025. Major events occurred billions of years apart when the Universe was first forming, millions of years apart when animals and plants were evolving on the Earth, thousands of years when humans evolved and set up civilization. Now they are only 50 years apart: The automobile and airplane, nuclear energy, the Internet, with the next being in 10 years with biotech. Soon they will be every year, then every month, then the entire thing gets chaotic. Combine this with the Strauss and Howe theory and I get the feeling of being spun around and around in a vortex or whirlpool.







Post#6652 at 04-13-2003 09:46 PM by Chicken Little [at western NC joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,211]
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Re: Still Third Turning but a whirlpool coming up

Quote Originally Posted by Jim Blowers
I say we are still in the Third Turning. This war ended quickly, and was accompanied by numerous media events; even the toppling of the central statue in Baghdad may have been a media event. This war will likely be followed by a period of prosperity, which among other things may guarantee Bush's reelection in 2004. The REAL Fourth Turning may lie ahead: the running out of cheap oil, for instance.

Also I note that in the recent edition of The Futurist, things seem to be approaching a singularity, around 2025. Major events occurred billions of years apart when the Universe was first forming, millions of years apart when animals and plants were evolving on the Earth, thousands of years when humans evolved and set up civilization. Now they are only 50 years apart: The automobile and airplane, nuclear energy, the Internet, with the next being in 10 years with biotech. Soon they will be every year, then every month, then the entire thing gets chaotic. Combine this with the Strauss and Howe theory and I get the feeling of being spun around and around in a vortex or whirlpool.
I just don't know anymore. I still say we're probably in a 4T; events are still discrete but accelerating in frequency and will continue to do so with increasingly severe consequences.
It may still be too soon to tell for certain.
It's like a bug high on the wall. You wait for it to come to you. When it gets close enough you reach out, slap out and kill it. Or if you like its looks, you make a pet out of it.
- Charles Bukowski







Post#6653 at 04-13-2003 10:27 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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We're on dangerous ground here, folks?

Quote Originally Posted by Lloyd Grove in The Washington Post
Quote Originally Posted by Mitch Albom in the Detroit Free Press
I may not hold with things that Robbins and Sarandon say -- in fact, I don't -- but their right to say it and not be ostracized is a cherished tenet of American life.

Which is why these new "super patriots" like Petroskey are actually more un-American than the people they criticize. "Public figures, such as you," he wrote to Robbins and Sarandon, have an "obligation to act and speak responsibly."

"Responsibly" apparently means agreeing with him.

We're on dangerous ground here, folks.
The Reliable Source Tuesday, March 25, 2003; Page C01

The war in Iraq -- or maybe just something in the Evian water -- put a lot of showbiz folks in a jittery mood last weekend and pushed a couple of Hollywood's leading lights over the edge...

As for [Tim] Robbins, we said hello to him in a crush of partygoers that included his life partner, Susan Sarandon (both of them had displayed their deep commitment to nonviolence by holding up the two-fingered sign of peace at the Academy Awards). Robbins flashed a smile and jovially shook our hand -- Bob Roberts at a campaign stop. But when we mentioned that we'd had the pleasure of talking recently with 79-year-old Lenora Tomalin -- conservative Republican, George W. Bush supporter and wry observer of her daughter Sarandon -- his expression turned cold.

"Wait. You're the one who wrote about Susan's mother?"

Robbins narrowed his eyes and pursed his lips -- the secretly murderous neighbor in "Arlington Road."

"At least you got Jeb Bush to call her -- that was great," He moved within inches and said into our ear: "If you ever write about my family again, I will [bleeping] find you and I will [bleeping] hurt you."
So our wonderful peacenik doesn't like what the Washington Post writes, so he threatens to "[bleeping] hurt" the reporter?

Dangerous ground indeed, folks.







Post#6654 at 04-13-2003 10:51 PM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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http://www.bayarea.com/mld/mercuryne...ts/5625039.htm

Quote Originally Posted by Drew Olson in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
Robbins, who told reporters he had been looking forward to "a weekend away from politics and war," responded with a scathing letter to Petroskey.

"I am sorry that you have chosen to use baseball and your position at the Hall of Fame to make a political statement," Robbins wrote. "I know there are many baseball fans that disagree with you, and even more that will react with disgust to realize baseball is being politicized."

The Hall of Fame scheduled the weekend to attract visitors to the museum and make a little money. If Petroskey had simply hated the film, that would have been one thing. If he'd objected to the somewhat racy love scenes or the sight of Robbins wearing women's undergarments under his uniform, that would have been a tad more understandable as grounds for canceling.

He could have kept quiet about it. He could have said "The film projector broke," or "There were some travel difficulties among the principals."

Instead, he chose to make a politically charged public spectacle and came off looking like a bully, a buffoon, an enemy of the First Amendment and a man not suited to run a cherished institution like the Hall of Fame.

In a radio interview Friday, Petroskey was asked if he simply could have called Robbins and Sarandon to seek an assurance that they would keep politics out of the event.

"If I had to do it over again, I probably would have picked up the phone and called them," he said.
How hard would that have been, really? Why schedule the screening in the first place, for that matter?

full text
Quote Originally Posted by Bernie Miklasz in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch
Watching TV recently, I saw a report that told of sailors aboard the aircraft carrier Theodore Roosevelt choosing to relax by watching "Bull Durham." Unlike Petroskey, the sailors seem capable of separating entertainment from politics.

In an interview with The Associated Press, Petroskey said he didn't want Sarandon and Robbins to use the Hall of Fame platform to air their anti-war opinions. Petroskey is right about one thing: the Hall of Fame shouldn't be engaged in politics. Why, then, did Petroskey invite current White House press secretary Ari Fleischer to Cooperstown to give a non-baseball speech last year? It seems that political discussion is fine with Petroskey - as long as it matches his agenda.

As a guest of the Hall of Fame, Robbins said he wanted to avoid political discussion. Robbins and Sarandon and their three children were looking forward to a family outing. Petroskey never attempted to determine if the actors would bring a political agenda to the "Bull Durham" festivities. He just assumed so. Wrong. Robbins was much more interested in discussing his Nuke LaLoosh film character instead of, say, a No Nukes campaign.
And Petroskey and Fleischer aren't just from the same party. They both worked directly for Elizabeth Dole at one time or another.
Quote Originally Posted by Dale Petroskey
In his first year Ari Fleischer has had a more demanding job than any White House Press Secretary in history. He has managed to be a candid spokesman for the President while clearly and simply articulating the Bush Administration's goals, both foreign and domestic. We are thrilled to welcome him to Cooperstown and hear his perspective on life in the White House and the current political scene which of course includes the war on terrorism.







Post#6655 at 04-14-2003 12:07 AM by bubba [at joined Feb 2003 #posts 84]
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What a shock conservatives push their agenda when they can, duuuuhhhhhh

Libs do the same.

Can the phony outrage.







Post#6656 at 04-14-2003 02:25 PM by Child of Socrates [at Cybrarian from America's Dairyland, 1961 cohort joined Sep 2001 #posts 14,092]
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Here's more evidence that stepping out of line is becoming less and less safe as the 4T continues.







Post#6657 at 04-15-2003 04:48 PM by bubba [at joined Feb 2003 #posts 84]
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Hey Kiffer nice post :wink:







Post#6658 at 04-15-2003 04:59 PM by Max [at Left Coast joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,038]
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Quote Originally Posted by Steve V
Here's my evidence for today that we're in a 3T. Yesterday on the Daily Show they had a skit making fun about the absence of homefront sacrifice during the War on Iraq. How people don't have to do much but watch the war on TV, if they're not watching Survivor that is, etc. They actually brought up and reminisced over the memory of busyness on the homefront in WWII and with Rosy the Riveter. At the end of the skit, Jon asked, "But isn't it kind of a sacrifice for us not to be sacrificing anything?"

Did I do it right?
:lol: :lol: Yes, Steve you did it right, welcome!
Someone said to me when I first came, "Welcome to the cult that is the 4T"
And now I say it to you.

I decided a few days ago I am in a 4T. I also decided Marc is in a 3T.
We are both right.

I believe the 4T has begun for some of us. For others, not yet.
I think we are looking for specific markers, each of us, for our proof.
A certain thought process, a political shift, a GC, a change in public mood,
the Crisis, etc... Aren't all of these things a compilation of every person, every individual coming to the same place, the same conclusions
as others? Then moving toward the goal together? Through elections, the emergence of a popular personality, through public opinions on certain issues. Perhaps some are in that place already and the general public need to meet them. Is it possible the crisis was 9/11 and now day by day
the opinion is swayed in only a handful of individuals. Yet, one day the
outstanding opinion, the political landscape will be undeniably 4T. But, that day wont look much different from the day before.

We say hind sight is 20/20. Looking at history with the advantage of time and place it seems a lot more clear cut. Living it, however looks different
to me.
...."um...(obvious confusion)...what?"
"Max"
(silence)
"It's short for Maxine"
" *brightens*....oh!"
"But nobody calls me that"







Post#6659 at 04-15-2003 10:40 PM by Katie '85 [at joined Sep 2002 #posts 306]
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Re: Still Third Turning but a whirlpool coming up

Quote Originally Posted by Jim Blowers
Also I note that in the recent edition of The Futurist, things seem to be approaching a singularity, around 2025. Major events occurred billions of years apart when the Universe was first forming, millions of years apart when animals and plants were evolving on the Earth, thousands of years when humans evolved and set up civilization. Now they are only 50 years apart: The automobile and airplane, nuclear energy, the Internet, with the next being in 10 years with biotech. Soon they will be every year, then every month, then the entire thing gets chaotic. Combine this with the Strauss and Howe theory and I get the feeling of being spun around and around in a vortex or whirlpool.
Stop it, my head is spinning!

I know what you mean though. I have no idea whether this is a 3T or a 4T, and, frankly, I don't care. Either way the future isn't looking very rosy. Lately I've been thinking of what a sheer miracle it is that we haven't yet waged an all-out nuclear war, considering the number of countries that have the capability to do so. We are tremendously lucky. Especially here in the US. We came through the bloodiest century in history relatively unscathed - compared to the rest of the world. That is a huge blessing, which we don't deserve and unfortunately take for granted most of the time. I'll be thankful for good fortune while it lasts, but I'm not expecting it to go on forever.

I probably sound very pessimistic. :wink: As weird as this sounds, I don't actually feel worried about the future at all. Intellectually I understand that bad, catastrophic things can (and probably will) happen, but I don't feel alarmed or panicky about it in the slightest. Maybe it's because I've been praying alot more in recent weeks. If so, I'd better keep it up.
Much madness is divinest sense. -- Emily Dickinson







Post#6660 at 04-15-2003 11:43 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Quote Originally Posted by justmom
Quote Originally Posted by Steve V
Here's my evidence for today that we're in a 3T. Yesterday on the Daily Show they had a skit making fun about the absence of homefront sacrifice during the War on Iraq. How people don't have to do much but watch the war on TV, if they're not watching Survivor that is, etc. They actually brought up and reminisced over the memory of busyness on the homefront in WWII and with Rosy the Riveter. At the end of the skit, Jon asked, "But isn't it kind of a sacrifice for us not to be sacrificing anything?"

Did I do it right?
:lol: :lol: Yes, Steve you did it right, welcome!
Someone said to me when I first came, "Welcome to the cult that is the 4T"
And now I say it to you.

I decided a few days ago I am in a 4T. I also decided Marc is in a 3T.
We are both right.
Interesting perspective... so that would make me, totally oblivious to 9/11, entrenched in a 3T as well?

I believe the 4T has begun for some of us. For others, not yet.
I think we are looking for specific markers, each of us, for our proof.
A certain thought process, a political shift, a GC, a change in public mood,
the Crisis, etc... Aren't all of these things a compilation of every person, every individual coming to the same place, the same conclusions
as others? Then moving toward the goal together? Through elections, the emergence of a popular personality, through public opinions on certain issues. Perhaps some are in that place already and the general public need to meet them. Is it possible the crisis was 9/11 and now day by day
the opinion is swayed in only a handful of individuals. Yet, one day the
outstanding opinion, the political landscape will be undeniably 4T. But, that day wont look much different from the day before.

We say hind sight is 20/20. Looking at history with the advantage of time and place it seems a lot more clear cut. Living it, however looks different
to me.







Post#6661 at 04-16-2003 12:06 AM by Hari Seldon [at Trantor joined Jun 2002 #posts 47]
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Quote Originally Posted by Jim Blowers
Also I note that in the recent edition of The Futurist, things seem to be approaching a singularity, around 2025. Major events occurred billions of years apart when the Universe was first forming, millions of years apart when animals and plants were evolving on the Earth, thousands of years when humans evolved and set up civilization. Now they are only 50 years apart: The automobile and airplane, nuclear energy, the Internet, with the next being in 10 years with biotech. Soon they will be every year, then every month, then the entire thing gets chaotic. Combine this with the Strauss and Howe theory and I get the feeling of being spun around and around in a vortex or whirlpool.
Jim, I have read the book which talks about that "singularity". It is very interesting indeed. I also, while reading it and in further research afterwards, have thought of how S&H's theory of generational cycles would effect the progression of technologies (and the path to a "singularity") and vice versa. I really think that as technologies start accelerating faster and become more rooted in our societies that any generational cycles which have existed will indeed morph. Perhaps they will even vanish... If the date of 2025 is at all credible, then perhaps this could be the final 4T, in which humanity makes some transition to a "higher plane of civilization".

I'd be most interested to hear any more thoughts you have on this subject, and how it relates to the 4T we are about to enter, or have already entered (as I'm still a bit uncertain myself about this).
Hari Seldon (1984)

I, creator of the Foundation, predictor of the Era of Barbarism, have arrived! And not a moment too soon! Although S&H theory cannot stand up to my psychohistory, I shall entertain myself in this forum nevertheless!







Post#6662 at 04-16-2003 10:46 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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Quote Originally Posted by Hari Seldon
I'd be most interested to hear any more thoughts you have on this subject, and how it relates to the 4T we are about to enter...
I think it important to keep in mind (as we move past this liberation, er, quagmire, um, conquest of the Iraqi people and onto the more pressing concern of just who murdered Laci Peterson), that while America is obviously in a 4T "survival" mode, some 3T issues continune to come to the fore: namely weapons of mass destruction and the realignment of Europe and the Middle East.

Consider, if you will, the impact on these geopolitical time-bombs if Scott Peterson actually did kill his wife and unborn son on Christmas Eve, last year. If true, I hardly can believe that George W. Bush could even dream of winning re-election next year!

If I were a Democrat, I'd be hoping for a Peterson confession. The sooner, the better, imho. :wink:







Post#6663 at 04-17-2003 01:29 AM by Vince Lamb '59 [at Irish Hills, Michigan joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,997]
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craM, your posts are a waste of disk space.
"Dans cette epoque cybernetique
Pleine de gents informatique."







Post#6664 at 04-17-2003 01:16 PM by TrollKing [at Portland, OR -- b. 1968 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,257]
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so, it looks like we may have all the oil we need....

http://www.discover.com/may_03/gther...e=featoil.html


TK







Post#6665 at 04-17-2003 02:03 PM by Evan Anderson [at joined Mar 2002 #posts 400]
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Quote Originally Posted by TrollKing
so, it looks like we may have all the oil we need....

http://www.discover.com/may_03/gther...e=featoil.html


TK
Very, very cool.







Post#6666 at 04-17-2003 02:33 PM by Justin '77 [at Meh. joined Sep 2001 #posts 12,182]
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Quote Originally Posted by John Wayne
Quote Originally Posted by TrollKing
so, it looks like we may have all the oil we need....

http://www.discover.com/may_03/gther...e=featoil.html


TK
Very, very cool.
I particularly am impressed with the way they appear to have brought the efficiency up from a negative (more consumed in process than the LHV of products produced) to 85%. Isn't chemical engineering grand?







Post#6667 at 04-17-2003 09:20 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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"Real news vs. Celebrity news"

Quote Originally Posted by Vince (aka The Pervert) Lamb '59
Quote Originally Posted by Marc S. Lamb
I think it important to keep in mind (as we move past this liberation, er, quagmire, um, conquest of the Iraqi people and onto the more pressing concern of just who murdered Laci Peterson), that while America is obviously in a 4T "survival" mode, some 3T issues continune to come to the fore: namely weapons of mass destruction and the realignment of Europe and the Middle East.

Consider, if you will, the impact on these geopolitical time-bombs if Scott Peterson actually did kill his wife and unborn son on Christmas Eve, last year. If true, I hardly can believe that George W. Bush could even dream of winning re-election next year!

If I were a Democrat, I'd be hoping for a Peterson confession. The sooner, the better, imho. :wink:
craM, your posts are a waste of disk space.
The "waste of disk space" circa 1930

Round up the usual 3T suspects for the John Wayne Bobbi, er, Scott Peterson show... Ever familar names like Detective Mark Furman, of O.J. Simpson fame, and Attorney Mark Geragos of Susan McDougal fame, and you've got another tantilizing celebrity whodunit for On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.

But waddaya really get?

More 3T ad nuseum.

So why bring up 1930 and "disk space"? The following I suppose could be considered by The Pervert as just more of a waste of time:

"David [Kaiser] has commented, correctly, that Fourth Turnings produce the most real news, and Third Turnings the least. Except when events like the Princess Di tragedy strike, Americans today seem to be caring less and less about real news, which they consider of less and less significance to their lives. That, of course, will change. When the Fourth Turning mood catalyzes, paparazzi-style behavior will seem far more ridiculous than today. It was in 1930, after all, that the flagpole sitters came down their poles because nobody cared about stunts any more.

"The year 1930 is, in many respects, one of the most remarkable (yet understudied) of this century. Let me recommend to anybody near a good library: Spend an hour or two perusing old Fortune, Life, and Time magazines from that year. Note what was going on--in style, attitude, and manner. It's very instructive."
-- William Strauss, The Media thread (Mon Sep 1 23:17:34 US/Pacific 1997)


Yep, that "disk space" is a terrible thing to "waste," eh? :wink:







Post#6668 at 04-17-2003 10:56 PM by Max [at Left Coast joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,038]
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I would like to submit this conversation from "How will liberals reinvent themselves? (they need to) " as proof of a very early 4T.

Now, I'm not being funny here. Consider what is being said.

Quote Originally Posted by Kiff '61
Quote Originally Posted by Xer of Evil
Quote Originally Posted by TrollKing
Quote Originally Posted by Kiff '61
He didn't convince me, either. :P :wink:
whoa.... you are so in denial.

'sides, it doesn't matter if you're convinced. i still won. :wink:


TK
This is the main problem with this board. Too many people treat "discussions" like something to be "won" rather than learned from.
You are quite correct, XoE, as usual.

I have dropped a couple of ongoing "discussions" in the last couple of days as it's been getting clear that they are going nowhere fast.

It's been stimulating, to a certain extent, to tangle with people here, but for right now I think I'm more interested in an exchange of ideas rather than constant "Point/Counterpoint."
...."um...(obvious confusion)...what?"
"Max"
(silence)
"It's short for Maxine"
" *brightens*....oh!"
"But nobody calls me that"







Post#6669 at 04-17-2003 11:06 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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Quote Originally Posted by justmom
I would like to submit this conversation from "How will liberals reinvent themselves? (they need to) " as proof of a very early 4T.

Now, I'm not being funny here. Consider what is being said.

"It's been stimulating, to a certain extent, to tangle with people here, but for right now I think I'm more interested in an exchange of ideas rather than constant "Point/Counterpoint."
This is "proof of a very early 4T"??? Oh, Max.

Re-read the book. Nevermind. You're right. 8)







Post#6670 at 04-18-2003 12:28 AM by cbailey [at B. 1950 joined Sep 2001 #posts 1,559]
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From the Editor's Page of the May/June issue of "AARP The Magazine":

Some of us need to
Discover that we will not
Begin to live more
Fully until we have the
Courage to do and see
And taste and experience
Much less than usual......

Thomas Merton "Nothing Doing"

______________

Very 4T
Very 4T Boomer

AARP (American Association for Retired People) has quit publishing "Modern Maturity"which had served GIs and Silents. It has also discontinued the short-lived "Generations", its' publication specifically for aging Boomers.

We now have only "AARP The Magazine / America's Largest Circulation Magazine."
Very 4T Boomer

One problem I can see.........a lot of us Boomers aren't expecting to be able to retire as early as those GIs and Silents. .... Or as financially comfortable.
"To announce that there must be no criticism of the president, or that we are to stand by the president right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public." -- Theodore Roosevelt







Post#6671 at 04-18-2003 04:04 AM by Morir [at joined Feb 2003 #posts 1,407]
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I cannot even read CNN news because of that Laci Peterson, Elizabeth Smart crap.
I get my news over at the Yahoo homepage because they tell me when Dick Cheney is being investigated, and they tell me that Bush's cultural advisors stepped down, and that 17 civilians were shot in Mosul by US soldiers. that stuff is nowhere to be found on the CNN website.
It truly is a propaganda network, it amazes me how blatantly biased it is.

Marc I recently wrote an e-mail to Strauss. I think that they are not exactly sure when they will pinpoint the catalyst. They also said that Millennials may still be being born. That boundary depends on the end of the crisis, not the beginning.
They are still very hung up on the 1982 boundary.







Post#6672 at 04-18-2003 02:52 PM by Evan Anderson [at joined Mar 2002 #posts 400]
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Further evidence of success in the Bush administration's "case-by-case" approach to the War on Terrorism, a major initiative targeting North Korea's nuclear ambitions has come to light.

This brings to mind Bush's 9/20/2001 speech:

"Americans should not expect one battle, but a lengthy campaign, unlike any other we have ever seen. It may include dramatic strikes, visible on TV, and covert operations, secret even in success."

N Korean scientists defect


A SWATH of North Korea's military and scientific elite, among them key nuclear specialists, has defected to the US and its allies through a highly secret smuggling operation involving the tiny Pacific island of Nauru.

The defections have taken place since last October and have been made possible through the help of 11 countries that agreed to provide consular protection to smuggle the targets from neighbouring China, according to sources close to the operation, which has now been wound up.

Some countries also agreed to act as transit points for up to 30 days once the defectors left China, the sources claim.

Among those now believed to be in a safe house in the West is the father of North Korea's nuclear program, Kyong Won-ha, who left his homeland late last year with the help of Spanish officials. Debriefings of Mr Kyong are said to have given intelligence officials an unprecedented insight into North Korea's nuclear capabilities, particularly at the feared reactor number one in the southern city of Yongbyon.

The operation ? dubbed Weasel ? has been largely facilitated through non-government organisations and private citizens from South Korea, the US and its allies. It has deliberately been kept at arm's length from any government.

It is understood to have led directly to the defection of up to 20 senior North Korean officials in the past six months.







Post#6673 at 04-18-2003 06:17 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Quote Originally Posted by Huey P. Newton
I cannot even read CNN news because of that Laci Peterson, Elizabeth Smart crap.
I get my news over at the Yahoo homepage because they tell me when Dick Cheney is being investigated, and they tell me that Bush's cultural advisors stepped down, and that 17 civilians were shot in Mosul by US soldiers. that stuff is nowhere to be found on the CNN website.
It truly is a propaganda network, it amazes me how blatantly biased it is.

Marc I recently wrote an e-mail to Strauss. I think that they are not exactly sure when they will pinpoint the catalyst. They also said that Millennials may still be being born. That boundary depends on the end of the crisis, not the beginning.
Ahh... the boundary depending on the END of the crisis? Then generations must be characterised more by coming of age than by initial impression, according to S&H's view!

They are still very hung up on the 1982 boundary.
which they chose well before the corresponding event to determined the boundary (the end of the 3T) - if it depends on coming of age how would S&H have had any idea in 1991?







Post#6674 at 04-18-2003 10:39 PM by Roadbldr '59 [at Vancouver, Washington joined Jul 2001 #posts 8,275]
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Quote Originally Posted by mmailliw 8419
Quote Originally Posted by Justin '79
Marc I recently wrote an e-mail to Strauss. I think that they are not exactly sure when they will pinpoint the catalyst. They also said that Millennials may still be being born. That boundary depends on the end of the crisis, not the beginning.
Ahh... the boundary depending on the END of the crisis? Then generations must be characterised more by coming of age than by initial impression, according to S&H's view!
This actually makes a great deal of sense. Consider the end boundary of the last Hero generation. S&H ended the GI Generation at 1924, the last cohort whose male members generally saw action during World War II. Subsequent cohorts, 1925, '26, '27 may have enlisted, but for most of them the war was over before they had a chance to be sent into battle. For example my father, born in 1926, enlisted in the Army upon graduation from HS in 1944. He was in the Phillipines, in preparation for the upcoming invasion of the Japanese mainland, when Mr. Truman dropped the A-bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This experience, of not having the opportunity (for better or for worse) to become death-dealing Heroes (or spouses of one) is what makes people born in 1925 and later Silent.

If the last cohort of men and women who fight in The Tenth Crusade turns out to be 1999, it's a good bet that that will be the last year of the Millennial generation.



They are still very hung up on the 1982 boundary which they chose well before the corresponding event to determined the boundary (the end of the 3T) - if it depends on coming of age how would S&H have had any idea in 1991?
Um....might Strauss and Howe simply made their best guess? Besides, 2T/3T boundaries are quite murky anyway, compared with 3T/4T. I mean, for the early Silents, not having fought in WWII was a major big deal-- I can't count how many Saturday afternoons my Dad fiddled away when I was a kid, daydreaming of being a war hero in front of televised combat films. Conversely, I doubt there are many 1982-84 Millies pining away for the grunge/gangsta era that they just missed being a part of.







Post#6675 at 04-18-2003 10:57 PM by zilch [at joined Nov 2001 #posts 3,491]
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04-18-2003, 10:57 PM #6675
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Re: "Real news vs. Celebrity news"

Quote Originally Posted by Marc S. Lamb
Quote Originally Posted by Vince (aka The Pervert) Lamb '59
Quote Originally Posted by Marc S. Lamb
I think it important to keep in mind (as we move past this liberation, er, quagmire, um, conquest of the Iraqi people and onto the more pressing concern of just who murdered Laci Peterson), that while America is obviously in a 4T "survival" mode, some 3T issues continune to come to the fore: namely weapons of mass destruction and the realignment of Europe and the Middle East.

Consider, if you will, the impact on these geopolitical time-bombs if Scott Peterson actually did kill his wife and unborn son on Christmas Eve, last year. If true, I hardly can believe that George W. Bush could even dream of winning re-election next year!

If I were a Democrat, I'd be hoping for a Peterson confession. The sooner, the better, imho. :wink:
craM, your posts are a waste of disk space.
The "waste of disk space" circa 1930

Round up the usual 3T suspects for the John Wayne Bobbi, er, Scott Peterson show... Ever familar names like Detective Mark Furman, of O.J. Simpson fame, and Attorney Mark Geragos of Susan McDougal fame, and you've got another tantilizing celebrity whodunit for On the Record with Greta Van Susteren.

But waddaya really get?

More 3T ad nuseum.

So why bring up 1930 and "disk space"? The following I suppose could be considered by The Pervert as just more of a waste of time:

"David [Kaiser] has commented, correctly, that Fourth Turnings produce the most real news, and Third Turnings the least. Except when events like the Princess Di tragedy strike, Americans today seem to be caring less and less about real news, which they consider of less and less significance to their lives. That, of course, will change. When the Fourth Turning mood catalyzes, paparazzi-style behavior will seem far more ridiculous than today. It was in 1930, after all, that the flagpole sitters came down their poles because nobody cared about stunts any more.

"The year 1930 is, in many respects, one of the most remarkable (yet understudied) of this century. Let me recommend to anybody near a good library: Spend an hour or two perusing old Fortune, Life, and Time magazines from that year. Note what was going on--in style, attitude, and manner. It's very instructive."
-- William Strauss, The Media thread (Mon Sep 1 23:17:34 US/Pacific 1997)


Yep, that "disk space" is a terrible thing to "waste," eh? :wink:
This week a black man confessed to strangling five Phoenix prostitutes... zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz....

Modesto Police Arrest Scott Peterson!

zzzz. . . zzz.. "Huh? What the? Quick, turn on the TV, honey!"

Sooooo very 3Tish, imho. :wink:
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