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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 292







Post#7276 at 08-15-2003 10:40 AM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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I'm the one saying we're still in the 3T.
I know. I disagree with you, and was refuting your argument in favor of that assertion. You said that if we were in the Crisis, the USA Patriot Act would have received widespread acceptance and support. I pointed out that this kind of consensus only occurs after the regeneracy. We are now in the Fourth Turning between the catalyst and the regeneracy, in my opinion.







Post#7277 at 08-15-2003 03:06 PM by Morir [at joined Feb 2003 #posts 1,407]
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As a doctor, I was trained to treat illness, and to examine a variety of options before deciding which to prescribe. I worried about side effects and took the time to see what else might work before proceeding to high-risk measures.

Dr. Dean.
A healer, not a dealer.







Post#7278 at 08-15-2003 03:16 PM by Morir [at joined Feb 2003 #posts 1,407]
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Man, I actually don't really care what turning we are in. But I am old enough to understand why this is so funny. The "encounter" we all remember is mentioned in the article.

hehe...Rob Lowe

Will Rob Lowe Join Arnold's Campaign??
9 minutes ago Add Entertainment - Reuters to My Yahoo!


By Steve Gorman

LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Actor Rob Lowe (news), who played a top White House aide on television, has been asked to join the real-life gubernatorial campaign of fellow celebrity Arnold Schwarzenegger (news), a source close to Lowe said on Friday.



It was not immediately clear whether the invitation from Schwarzenegger, a Republican, would be accepted by Lowe, a longtime Democratic activist whose attendance at the party's 1988 national convention led to a sex scandal that nearly derailed his career.


Lowe, 39, would be the third high-profile addition to the Schwarzenegger campaign in as many days, following announcements that billionaire investor Warren Buffett (news - web sites) -- another Democrat -- and former Secretary of State George Schultz had agreed to serve as co-chairs of the actor's Economic Recovery Council.


A spokeswoman for Schwarzenegger, Karen Hanretty, said she had no information on Lowe joining the campaign.


There was no comment from Lowe's Hollywood publicist.


But a source close to Lowe told Reuters the former co-star of NBC White House drama "The West Wing (news - web sites)" had been asked by Arnold and the Democrat closest to Schwarzenegger -- his wife, Maria Shriver -- to join the campaign in some high-ranking capacity.


According to the Los Angeles Times, which broke the story, Lowe would act as a behind-the-scenes adviser and public advocate for the "Terminator" star and is one of several Hollywood Democrats to express interest in working for the Schwarzenegger's gubernatorial bid.


The Times said he was expected to assume a co-chair title with the campaign. Schwarzenegger is one of 135 candidates running to replace California Gov. Gray Davis (news - web sites) in the event the incumbent Democrat is unseated in a recall election Oct. 7.


Lowe, best known for playing the idealistic White House speech writer Sam Seaborn on "The West Wing," left the show last season in a contract dispute with producers but landed a starring role in the upcoming NBC legal drama "The Lyon's Den."


In real life, Lowe has long been active in Democratic Party circles, supporting the failed 1988 presidential bid of then-Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis. Attending the Democratic National Convention that year in Atlanta, Lowe videotaped himself cavorting with two young women, one of whom turned out to be under age, in a hotel room.


The sexual encounter made headlines months later when the explicit video surfaced publicly, and Lowe ended up performing community service to avoid criminal charges.







Post#7279 at 08-15-2003 03:31 PM by Opusaug [at Ft. Myers, Florida joined Sep 2001 #posts 7]
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Haven't we been here before?

Hi folks! I've been staying away - as my nomadic self is wont to do - but when I saw this, I just had to think of you all... Nicholas Kristof thinks we're in 2T.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/15/opinion/15KRIS.html
Christopher O'Conor
13er, '68 cohort







Post#7280 at 08-15-2003 05:01 PM by Jim Blowers [at Virginia joined Aug 2001 #posts 55]
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Is the Great Power Blackout the Catalyst of the 4T?

Is the Great Blackout of 2003 the catalyst for the Fourth Turning? There are many who say that 9/11 (or as I prefer to call it, Planeattack) was the catalyst. But to me it is clear that ecological deterioration and the running out of resources, especially fossil fuels, will be the theme of the next Fourth Turning. So 9/11 appears to me as a False Turning. Terrorism is not the theme of the Fourth Turning but a dangerous distraction. The Real Catalyst is still to come and would have a resource depletion theme. The running out of US natural gas this winter could be it, but could it be the Power Blackout, serving as a wakeup call? It will bring people's attention to electricity and how we need to upgrade the power grid, and hopefully then to the upcoming shortages.

One reason why it may not be the catalyst is that there was a duplicate of this blackout in 1965, near the beginning of the Second Turning. But to me that blackout did not address the main issues of that Second Turning, namely the constricting nature of our society at that time. This blackout DOES address the crucial issue of resource depletion, so I think it could be the catalyst. What do you all think?







Post#7281 at 08-15-2003 07:15 PM by AlexMnWi [at Minneapolis joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,622]
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I actually think that the "catalyst" as S&H put it, is not just one event, but a series of events over a period... which coincides will all pre-regeneracy 4T stages. The 4T has four phases, Catalyst, Regeneracy, Climax, and Resolution, each of which is best known as a specific event, but is really an entire phase. For example, in the last 4T, the Catalyst phase was from 1929-1932. It is best known as the 1929 crash, but also includes the Hawley-Smoot tariff, and Hoover's ordering the defeat of the Bonus Army. The regeneracy phase was from 1932-1941 (or so). It is best known as FDR's election and/or inauguration, but also includes the gradual build-up towards war, the New Deal, the 1935 Hays' Code, and FDR's continual re-election. The climax phase was from 1941 (or so) to 1945. It is best known as D-Day, but also includes Pearl Harbor, the dropping of the atomic bomb, and basically all of World War II. The resolution was from 1945-1946. It is best known as the demobilization from war, but also includes Japan's formal surrender, and all events up to June 1946.

I think that our catalyst phase began in 2001, and is best known as 9/11. However, it also includes the Afghanistan War, the War in Iraq, possibly the recession, the California recall, and the blackout.

And keep in mind, the crash of 1929 doesn't exactly have much (or anything) to do with World War II, does it? That crisis was about both the economy and, later, war.
1987 INTP







Post#7282 at 08-15-2003 07:20 PM by AlexMnWi [at Minneapolis joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,622]
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NBC Nightly News ran a story about how NYC reacted much better to this blackout than to the 1977 blackout. The story seemed very 4T... it had lots of cooperation themes, and so forth.







Post#7283 at 08-15-2003 09:55 PM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
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Quote Originally Posted by AlexMnWi
I think that our catalyst phase began in 2001, and is best known as 9/11. However, it also includes the Afghanistan War, the War in Iraq, possibly the recession, the California recall, and the blackout.

And keep in mind, the crash of 1929 doesn't exactly have much (or anything) to do with World War II, does it? That crisis was about both the economy and, later, war.
Or war as salve for the economy.

I'd been thinking along those lines but hadn't quite connected the dots. Thank you.
"My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didnīt replace it with nothing but lost faith."

Bruce Springsteen, 1987
http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY







Post#7284 at 08-15-2003 10:31 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Quote Originally Posted by John Taber 1972
Quote Originally Posted by AlexMnWi
I think that our catalyst phase began in 2001, and is best known as 9/11. However, it also includes the Afghanistan War, the War in Iraq, possibly the recession, the California recall, and the blackout.

And keep in mind, the crash of 1929 doesn't exactly have much (or anything) to do with World War II, does it? That crisis was about both the economy and, later, war.
Or war as salve for the economy.

I'd been thinking along those lines but hadn't quite connected the dots. Thank you.
London, circa 1914, was the center of the financial universe. London ceded this "center" to New York circa 1915 in order to serve the "bitch goddess" of loyality and war.

In 1920, the new "center," Wall Street, blew up. And thus began the first "red scare." America would turn inward, instituting immigration quotas in 1924, before coming out of her shell in 1941.

The "red scare" crime was never solved. And thirty-some year later a new "red scare" would evolve into a thing called "McCarthyism."

London, circa 1914, was the center of the financial universe. London ceded this "center" to New York circa 1915 in order to serve the "bitch goddess" of loyality and war.

America, circa 2004, was the center of the financial universe. America ceded this "center" to ________ circa 2005 in order to serve the "bitch goddess" of ______________.

'Nuff said.







Post#7285 at 08-15-2003 10:38 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zola
Quote Originally Posted by John Taber 1972
Quote Originally Posted by Zola
I think that if we were truly in a 4T, there would have been a broad agreement that this law was necessary for protection.
The New Deal wasn't exactly accepted unconditionally.
No, but I don't think there was this groundswelling of opposition as there is for the Patriot Act.
There isn't any groundswell of opposition to the Patriot Act. In some ways, I wish there was. A few people have gotten mildly annoyed about it, a few others have taken some steps to not comply, but nothing terribly significant on a national scale.

OTOH, there isn't any particular support for it, either. Indifference reigns.







Post#7286 at 08-15-2003 10:40 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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Quote Originally Posted by AlexMnWi
Part of an article:

As darkness fell, city dwellers turned to candles and flashlights as scattered parts of the electrical grid came back on. People gobbled ice cream from street vendors before it melted, and gathered around battery-operated radios for updates.

Su Rya, 69, in batik shirt and shorts, guarded a store on 125th Street in Harlem. But when asked about talk that looting might break out, he said, "That's barbershop talk. It's a different generation now."

Marveled another man, "You can actually see the stars in New York City."
(Emphasis mine)
Thus far, a 4T sign. I still want to see what happens after midnight if streetlights aren't up yet.
Actually, it fits S&H's original descriptions of late 3T. The rioting in the last superblackout in NYC in '77 was an Awakening phenomenon.

Consider the words of S&H in Generations, in chapter 13, regarding the likely reaction to a hypothetical nuclear-terrorism threat in NYC in 3T (they called it an 'inner-driven era' then):


Quote Originally Posted by Strauss and Howe in chapter 13 of GENERATIONS
Alternatively, suppose this hypothetical nuclear terrorism were to happen...in the middle of the current Inner Driven era. By then, the span of roughly a quarter century will have entirely reshaped the likely national response--which would caution, conciliation, and deferral. Silent Cabinet officers would consult allies, form committees, review options, and invite full public discussion. After initiating multilater negotiations, leaders would generally try to wait things out. The crisis would frustrate but not anger Boomers, (who would trade philosophic remarks about how it was bound to happen sooner or later) and would hardly ruffle young 13ers (many of whom might rush toward the city to sell or volunteer transportation to families wanting to leave). Official evacuation plans would be expensive and overcomplicated and would elicit little public confidence that they would work as intended. Most people would stay calm and simply make their own plans. Chances are, the nation would squeeze by the immediate threat undamaged, but leave its underlying causes either unsolved or, at best, mildly ameliorated.
That obviously doesn't fit the current situation exactly, but then, S&H meant it to apply to the early 90s, which they then saw as middle 3T, though I've come to suspect that it was actually early 3T. Also, they were talking about a situation far worse than the blackout in question.

Note that in the blackout, most of the people got home on their own. There wasn't a lot of excitement, and pragmatism was the order of the day. It remains to be seen out the aftermath will be handled. If the result is a lot of committees and debate, and very little actual action, it'll be strongly 3Tish.

Note further that the first thing the government did was to assure everyone that it wasn't terrorism, not an attack. According to S&H, in the same discussion that I quoted from above, that would be the very opposite of behavior to be expected in 4T.







Post#7287 at 08-15-2003 10:44 PM by HopefulCynic68 [at joined Sep 2001 #posts 9,412]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zola
Barbara, Brian.

I'm the one saying we're still in the 3T.

Quote Originally Posted by Zola
I don't believe that 4T has arrived yet. For one thing, the generations aren't properly lined up yet--as a first wave X-er, I only just turned 40 so technically I am (barely!) still a rising adult. We have only just filled the rising adult bracket completely.

For another thing, I don't yet see unity of purpose. A case in point is the Patriot Act. Yes, it was rammed through while people were still in shock and stunned, but it's not settling well now:

Ashcroft Planning Trip to Defend Patriot Act

I think that if we were truly in a 4T, there would have been a broad agreement that this law was necessary for protection.
Barbara, your point is well taken--it does seem to me like some are really in a hurry to get to the Crisis. This phenomena is not limited to this board, there is an earthquake site I visit where every rumble of a volcano or earthquake is surely a sign of the "end times"
On the right-wing side, I keep seeing semi-hysterical editorials and columns trying to compare the WOT to World War III, or equally breathless overreactions, usually by conservative Boomer commentators.
I suspect the 'eagerness' factor for 4T is mostly Boomer-based.


Oddly, it seems to follow a regular cycle where people reach a peak of hysteria about every three to four months, then things settle down when nothing happens, only to have it return as a few posters manage to whip others into a frenzy.
I think people do sense that something is brewing, even people who've never heard of Strauss or Howe. It's half instinct.

But the time is not quite yet.







Post#7288 at 08-15-2003 11:35 PM by Barbara [at 1931 Silent from Pleasantville joined Aug 2001 #posts 2,352]
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Re: Haven't we been here before?

Quote Originally Posted by Chris'68
Hi folks! I've been staying away - as my nomadic self is wont to do - but when I saw this, I just had to think of you all... Nicholas Kristof thinks we're in 2T.

http://www.nytimes.com/2003/08/15/opinion/15KRIS.html

Hey there, Chris, good to hear from you again. I read the article and it's got some interesting info. Even if he has the wrong turning for our purposes, he brings up some of the same points that Hopeful Cynic does (and also a few of Marc Lamb's). I didn't really interpret his use of the word Awakening in the sense we do here. But if his referenced data indicates a growing opposition of two American religious groupings of philosophy/faith, it could well fit into a late 3T (as I believe) internal idealogical buildup, or an early 4t one.

Thanks for posting the link.
"Congress is not an ATM" - Senator Robert Byrd / "Democracy works.....against us" - Jon Stewart / "I'll reach out to everyone who shares our goals" - George W. Bush







Post#7289 at 08-15-2003 11:42 PM by Barbara [at 1931 Silent from Pleasantville joined Aug 2001 #posts 2,352]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zola
Barbara, Brian.

I'm the one saying we're still in the 3T.

--snip--

Barbara, your point is well taken--it does seem to me like some are really in a hurry to get to the Crisis. This phenomena is not limited to this board, there is an earthquake site I visit where every rumble of a volcano or earthquake is surely a sign of the "end times"

Oddly, it seems to follow a regular cycle where people reach a peak of hysteria about every three to four months, then things settle down when nothing happens, only to have it return as a few posters manage to whip others into a frenzy.

I also see that particular phenomena as 3T--the Crisis is not yet revealed, yet on some level, we KNOW that it is coming, so there is a lot free-floating anxiety out there, exacerbated by the events of 9/11.

I think you are absolutely right about the New Yorkers' reaction to the outage. It's relief "oh, it's only an outage, not another attack! Thank goodness! It could have been so much worse!" I would imagine tempers will grow shorter the longer it progresses.

Zola, I apologize for not making myself more clear. I knew you say we be 3T, and assumed you'd know I was not thinking of you in my remark. We are on same page. :wink: Keep posting, I enjoy reading.
"Congress is not an ATM" - Senator Robert Byrd / "Democracy works.....against us" - Jon Stewart / "I'll reach out to everyone who shares our goals" - George W. Bush







Post#7290 at 08-15-2003 11:46 PM by Barbara [at 1931 Silent from Pleasantville joined Aug 2001 #posts 2,352]
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Quote Originally Posted by ....
America, circa 2004, was the center of the financial universe. America ceded this "center" to ________ circa 2005 in order to serve the "bitch goddess" of ______________.

'Nuff said.
Marc, who would that be? Who/What country would we cede to? Or could it be ceding to global rule?
"Congress is not an ATM" - Senator Robert Byrd / "Democracy works.....against us" - Jon Stewart / "I'll reach out to everyone who shares our goals" - George W. Bush







Post#7291 at 08-16-2003 12:36 AM by Jim Blowers [at Virginia joined Aug 2001 #posts 55]
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Blackout behavior suggests 4T but what about 1965?

One of the things we have all noticed about the blackout is how calm and courteous New Yorkers were - ordinary citizens directing traffic, letting others get through and so forth. This type of cooperation suggests that we are in a Fourth Turning, according to some people here. I would think so, too. But I see a problem; maybe it is because of my being an early Boomer (1946) and so I lived through it as a college student in Rochester, NY which got hit by the blackout. The same thing happened in the blackout of 1965! The same courteous and calm behavior happened then. But certainly we were not in a Fourth Turning then. We were at the beginning of a Second Turning, when people would start arguing with each other, especially college student Boomers against GIs and Losts. So if we say that blackout behavior suggests that we are in a 4T, then we need to explain the behavior of 1965.







Post#7292 at 08-16-2003 12:52 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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In 1965, we were still very early into the 2T, and the sorts of behavior patterns more easily associated with 'The 60s' were still a year or two in the future outside of California. Thus, what we saw in the '65 blackout could be explained as the behavioral leftovers of the previous 1T.







Post#7293 at 08-16-2003 01:22 AM by Zola [at Massachusetts, USA joined Jun 2003 #posts 198]
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Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68
On the right-wing side, I keep seeing semi-hysterical editorials and columns trying to compare the WOT to World War III, or equally breathless overreactions, usually by conservative Boomer commentators.
I suspect the 'eagerness' factor for 4T is mostly Boomer-based.
Yes, I agree, and it makes perfect sense, really. After all, once you get the crisis over with, you get your "High" if all goes well. It also seems most of the Chicken Littles I see on the other board are Boomers. Perhaps it has something to do with the generational attitude that Boomers are the Be All and End All and the Most Important Generation. :lol: So of COURSE we can't have a High without them.

I would not be surprised at all if the actual Crisis has little to do with current events. I want to go over the S&H books again and study on it, but it seems to me that most of the biggest Crises had to do with empire-building against the will of the conquered. If that is the case, we may find that the US is setting itself up to be the "villain" in WWIII. Following that Manifest Destiny and all...whether others like it or not.
1962 Cohort

Life With Zola







Post#7294 at 08-16-2003 02:00 AM by Barbara [at 1931 Silent from Pleasantville joined Aug 2001 #posts 2,352]
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Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68
Note that in the blackout, most of the people got home on their own. There wasn't a lot of excitement, and pragmatism was the order of the day. It remains to be seen out the aftermath will be handled. If the result is a lot of committees and debate, and very little actual action, it'll be strongly 3Tish.

Note further that the first thing the government did was to assure everyone that it wasn't terrorism, not an attack. According to S&H, in the same discussion that I quoted from above, that would be the very opposite of behavior to be expected in 4T.
I concur. I did find it almost strange that Bush was able to come out last night, so soon, and say definitely it wasn't a terrorist act. Made me think that he knew at that point what it really was (common sense dictates you'd have to know what the cause was to know it wasn't a terrorist act, to know what it was not).

Further, I have a hunch that the cause of this latest blackout / grid failure may end up resting at the feet of corporate malfeasance, albeit benign. Some TV talking heads have interviewed people in this field who have mentioned the possibility of one deregulated company not following the rules or cutting corners. As one said (paraphrased), we have specific procedures every company has to follow to make this work cooperatively in a deregulated world, and either someone ignored procedures or did not follow them correctly, and we will find out. It has to be one of those two actions. Now, this could just be an errant worker mistake, or it could be a deliberate cost-cutting profit-motived deviant company procedure workaround. Hopefully, we will get some inkling of the real deal, and not have it swept under the rug upon investigation. I've noticed deregulated utilities are having various profit problems.....

This blackout just may end up being another in a long line of corporate failures. We've been through many lately, and that is so far a 3T kind of thing on its face to those who believe we be 3T. However, it could be a 4T symptom to those who believe we be 4T. Vox nix. But, this kind of institutional breakdown could lead to what Jim Blowers has envisioned as the 4T "theme", or it could be a part of another related 4T thematic problem of corporatism, or both. We shall see.
"Congress is not an ATM" - Senator Robert Byrd / "Democracy works.....against us" - Jon Stewart / "I'll reach out to everyone who shares our goals" - George W. Bush







Post#7295 at 08-16-2003 02:13 AM by Barbara [at 1931 Silent from Pleasantville joined Aug 2001 #posts 2,352]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zola
I would not be surprised at all if the actual Crisis has little to do with current events.

I don't know, Zola, I don't know. I consistently have the feeling that the causes of this 4T are staring us smack in the face and are nibbling on the chaos of today.

Incidentally, just heard that the blackout investigation looks now to be narrowed down to a big transmission line near Cleveland that has been in sub-standard and degrading shape for some time, and has about 50 lines from Canada and US on the Lake Erie Loop feeding into it. A study of record logs has shown a drop loss there first. Simply not maintaining and upgrading infrastructure may be the culprit (huge investment costs there, and who pays in a world of bottom lines under microscopes). A Congressional bailout to modernize the grid will follow.

Hey, this is 1T stuff, isn't it? Boy, my late husband is rolling over in his grave right now. (His theory was that we had the 4T already, in the 1990's, and GWB has been governing just like a 1T pres.)
"Congress is not an ATM" - Senator Robert Byrd / "Democracy works.....against us" - Jon Stewart / "I'll reach out to everyone who shares our goals" - George W. Bush







Post#7296 at 08-16-2003 02:24 AM by Vince Lamb '59 [at Irish Hills, Michigan joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,997]
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Quote Originally Posted by Barbara
I have a hunch that the cause of this latest blackout / grid failure may end up resting at the feet of corporate malfeasance, albeit benign. Some TV talking heads have interviewed people in this field who have mentioned the possibility of one deregulated company not following the rules or cutting corners. As one said (paraphrased), we have specific procedures every company has to follow to make this work cooperatively in a deregulated world, and either someone ignored procedures or did not follow them correctly, and we will find out. It has to be one of those two actions. Now, this could just be an errant worker mistake, or it could be a deliberate cost-cutting profit-motived deviant company procedure workaround. Hopefully, we will get some inkling of the real deal, and not have it swept under the rug upon investigation. I've noticed deregulated utilities are having various profit problems.....

This blackout just may end up being another in a long line of corporate failures. We've been through many lately, and that is so far a 3T kind of thing on its face to those who believe we be 3T. However, it could be a 4T symptom to those who believe we be 4T. Vox nix. But, this kind of institutional breakdown could lead to what Jim Blowers has envisioned as the 4T "theme", or it could be a part of another related 4T thematic problem of corporatism, or both. We shall see.
As of right now, no one has more than the faintest clue what happened. See this article (posted for non-profit, public information and discussion purposes only):

Blackout Probe Focuses on Lake Erie Loop

Associated Press


Darkened buildings outline the Detroit skyline through the haze Friday, Aug. 15, 2003. Parts of the Detroit area remain dark after a power outage that effected the midwest and northeast corridor. (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)


Investigators focused on an electrical transmission loop that encircles Lake Erie as they tried to understand a massive power blackout that cut across the Northeast and Midwest, leaving millions of people without electricity.
Although no cause has been determined, officials were taking particular interest in a series of power line interruptions that occurred in the Cleveland area during the hour before the blackout hit Thursday, racing across the region from southern New England to Michigan.

Two minutes after the last of these Cleveland-area line problems there were "power swings noted in Canada and the eastern U.S.," said a document made public late Friday by the North America Electric Reliability Council.

But the NERC document cautioned "it's not clear if these events caused the (wider blackout) or were a consequence of other events."

Public Utilities of Ohio Chairman Alan Schriber said that the information from NERC was inconclusive but that "it's in the realm of possibility" that power was being drawn from FirstEnergy from outside its system because of increased power demand.

"Everybody's trying to point their finger at Ohio. By golly, maybe it's not Ohio," Schriber said. "I don't know who that would be and they (NERC) don't either."

Meanwhile, the White House announced a U.S.-Canadian task force will investigate the cause of the blackout and identify actions to prevent it from happening again. It will be headed by Energy Secretary Spencer Abraham and Canadian Natural Resources Minister Herb Dhaliwal.

President Bush said the power breakdown showed "we need to modernize the electricity grid." But, he acknowledged, "Something like this isn't going to happen overnight."

NERC officials also said that as of late Friday afternoon about two-thirds of the lost power had been restored throughout the affected region. At the peak, 61,800 megawatts of power had been lost; by 4:15 p.m. Friday all but 19,900 megawatts had been restored, said NERC. It gave no breakdown on what areas were still without power.

The cause of the blackout remained elusive. Earlier it had been believed the problem started in Canada, while still another theory had the cause pinned down to eastern Michigan.

No one was sure.

What did become clear, however, was that power grid experts were stunned at the broad reach of the blackout and the speed - a matter of seconds - in which it spread thousands of miles across New York and southern New England to the eastern sections of Michigan and into Canada.

"We never anticipated we could have a cascading outage" of this magnitude and speed, said Michehl Gent, chief of NERC, the industry-sponsored organization charged with assessing the dependability of the nation's electric grids.

Precautions were supposed to have been put in place to prevent such a widespread domino effect, he said, vowing to ferret out what triggered the chain of events and to take corrective action.

If the problem began in Ohio or Michigan, as was being speculated, it should never have reached Manhattan, complained New York Gov. George Pataki, adding that the grid was supposed to be designed to isolate such problems. "That just did not happen," he said.

But it may be days, even weeks, before solid answers emerge.

As power slowly began to be restored Friday, officials jumped from one theory to another in search for a cause.

Gent at a news conference acknowledged that the answer was somewhere on what is called the "Lake Erie Loop" - a massive, but troublesome transmission loop that encircles Lake Erie from New York to Detroit, into Canada and back to New York.

"That's the center of the focus. This has been problem for years and there have been all sorts of plans to make it more reliable," said Gent.

About the time power was disrupted at 4:11 p.m. EDT Thursday, technicians noticed a stunning development on the northern leg of the loop: some 300 megawatts of electricity moving east abruptly reversed course and within seconds 500 megawatts of power suddenly were moving west.

Electricity flows on its easiest path so it is believed the change in direction was caused by a sudden reduction in power somewhere on the line at the western end of the loop, investigators suggested.

"This was a big swing back and forth," said Gent, adding that throughout the grid system, power levels began to fluctuate. That caused generators and other systems to trip across the region to protect equipment.

More than 100 power plants, including 22 nuclear reactors in the United States and in Canada, shut down, most of them automatically to protect themselves against power surges, officials said.

The whole process "essentially took 9 seconds," said Gent "It happened very quickly."

But what triggered the shift of electricity flow and where?

As of late Friday no one was confident enough to say.

"Speculation is running rampant," said Gent. "I really don't want to speculate."

He said it could be next week before any firm answers are known, but he ticked off a string of factors that authorities are certain played no role.

Reports of lightning hitting a facility in the Niagara Falls area have been ruled out, as have reports that a fire at a New York City electric facility may have triggered the power disaster.

The weather also has been given a reprieve because it was not hot enough either in the Ohio Valley or in the Northeast to cause such a demand on electricity that the system should have overloaded, said Gent. In fact, he said, there was plenty of extra capacity.

And terrorism has been ruled out by everyone from grid managers to President Bush.

But Gent said he wouldn't rule out that negligence by someone, somewhere might have been a cause. Investigators will have to determine whether some industry transmission standards might have been ignored, or perhaps simply conclude that the industry-crafted standards are inadequate.

--

On the Net:

North American Electric Reliability Council: http://www.nerc.com
"Dans cette epoque cybernetique
Pleine de gents informatique."







Post#7297 at 08-16-2003 02:39 AM by Roadbldr '59 [at Vancouver, Washington joined Jul 2001 #posts 8,275]
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08-16-2003, 02:39 AM #7297
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Quote Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus
In 1965, we were still very early into the 2T, and the sorts of behavior patterns more easily associated with 'The 60s' were still a year or two in the future outside of California. Thus, what we saw in the '65 blackout could be explained as the behavioral leftovers of the previous 1T.
I couldn't agree more. What I remember most vividly from the '65 event is not news of rioting or looting, but...that the power came back on just in time for me to watch a rerun of the Mickey Mouse Club :-)







Post#7298 at 08-16-2003 02:39 AM by Vince Lamb '59 [at Irish Hills, Michigan joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,997]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zola
Barbara, your point is well taken--it does seem to me like some are really in a hurry to get to the Crisis. This phenomena is not limited to this board, there is an earthquake site I visit where every rumble of a volcano or earthquake is surely a sign of the "end times"

Oddly, it seems to follow a regular cycle where people reach a peak of hysteria about every three to four months, then things settle down when nothing happens, only to have it return as a few posters manage to whip others into a frenzy.
Aha, Vince's Axiom does apply to T4T!

On the newsgroup I've called "home" the past ten years, rec.arts.marching.drumcorps (aka RAMD), I've noticed that the same topics cycle at 3-6 month intervals for about two years before the agenda changes and then a new set of topics cycles through the group for two more years. It was so regular that I called it "Vince's Axiom of RAMD"
"Dans cette epoque cybernetique
Pleine de gents informatique."







Post#7299 at 08-16-2003 04:06 AM by '58 Flat [at Hardhat From Central Jersey joined Jul 2001 #posts 3,300]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zola
Quote Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68
On the right-wing side, I keep seeing semi-hysterical editorials and columns trying to compare the WOT to World War III, or equally breathless overreactions, usually by conservative Boomer commentators.
I suspect the 'eagerness' factor for 4T is mostly Boomer-based.
Yes, I agree, and it makes perfect sense, really. After all, once you get the crisis over with, you get your "High" if all goes well. It also seems most of the Chicken Littles I see on the other board are Boomers. Perhaps it has something to do with the generational attitude that Boomers are the Be All and End All and the Most Important Generation. :lol: So of COURSE we can't have a High without them.

I would not be surprised at all if the actual Crisis has little to do with current events. I want to go over the S&H books again and study on it, but it seems to me that most of the biggest Crises had to do with empire-building against the will of the conquered. If that is the case, we may find that the US is setting itself up to be the "villain" in WWIII. Following that Manifest Destiny and all...whether others like it or not.

Why in G-d's name would Boomers "want" a High? They spent the entire Awakening trying to destroy everything the High they grew up in was noted for - and the arrival of the next High spells death for them (or, if it comes too soon, an ignored or even despised elderhood, like that experienced by the Transcendentals).
But maybe if the putative Robin Hoods stopped trying to take from law-abiding citizens and give to criminals, take from men and give to women, take from believers and give to anti-believers, take from citizens and give to "undocumented" immigrants, and take from heterosexuals and give to homosexuals, they might have a lot more success in taking from the rich and giving to everyone else.

Don't blame me - I'm a Baby Buster!







Post#7300 at 08-16-2003 10:25 AM by monoghan [at Ohio joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,189]
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Quote Originally Posted by Barbara
[Incidentally, just heard that the blackout investigation looks now to be narrowed down to a big transmission line near Cleveland that has been in sub-standard and degrading shape for some time, and has about 50 lines from Canada and US on the Lake Erie Loop feeding into it. A study of record logs has shown a drop loss there first. Simply not maintaining and upgrading infrastructure may be the culprit (huge investment costs there, and who pays in a world of bottom lines under microscopes). A Congressional bailout to modernize the grid will follow.

If indeed it is that line, then that line has been a concern in the industry for decades. It is the reason that more cheaper midwestern power cannot be transmitted to the east because that is THE bottleneck. That line is constantly used at near maximum capacity.

As for upgrades, the question of "who pays" has been a thorny one because neither the shipper nor receiver of the power export wanted to absorb the cost. But the overriding problem that stopped every consideration of upgrading or expanding that particular transmission line was NIMBY. The opposition of those along the transmission line path would have prevented such an upgrade from ever happening. Not to mention the official opposition from Pennsylvania that would have a transmission line but no benefit from it.

If we get federal legislation to bail out of this problem, then watch for a new power siting scheme that preempts the local citizen ability to block such permits as developed as part of the environmental movement. And that would be a big 4T sign.
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