Originally Posted by
Dave Stafford
In my opinion we are still in the third turning (the dark/ugly end of the third turning).
The California recall follies are proof enough. Here's is a somewhat likely scenario for the next
20 years based on where we appear to be going.
Our economy will pick up somewhat including the stock market until 2005 when the real estate market finally
deflates (and prices). Then the S&P500 and Dow will chart lows below where they are today. The war on
terrorism will continue. We will have large conflicts growing with the Islamic world until least the end
of the decade. To fund it we will continue in deficit spending which that coupled with the real estate bubble
and the stock market downturn will decimate the economy.
After 2005 ethnic conflict will grow, exacerbated by mindless multiculturalism, illegal immigration, bad economy and low wages.
Already this is being seen in California yet covered up by the press and soon to spread to other states. Terror attacks on the East Coast
on New York and Washington DC may cause our nation's capital to be moved to a local such as Denver and
Wall Street to be operated by a Nazdaq like network out of Nebraska. Actually, Denver would be an ideal location
to have our capital.
After 2010 sections of the US will have resolved its ethnic issues once the government ends its open border policy
and rolls back affirmative action. The millennial generation at this time will start entering its 30's and will be more
civic in this regard than Gen X. The US, despite its strained resources and depleted job and economic base will still
be one of the worlds top two global powers, but somewhat less united and somewhat weaker from the two decades of PC thinking
that has eroded America's culture. From this point forward, our culture will be on an upward track as survival mode kicks in.
Typically, in the beginning of a fourthturning, there is civil strife during the first five years of the crisis. Economic downturns occur also. The type of civil strife could include militias, attacks on judges and ACLU lawyers by conservatives, attacks by liberals on
religious groups. Attacks by and between certain ethnic groups. Hispanics will be an interesting case in point. Most will and are deciding to join the mainstream - in California and the other states. Some (a significant minority of them) will decide to forgo American
culture and hope to turn the Southwest into "Aztlan" They will fail because their children would much rather live in a San Diego
than Tijuana. As for African Americans, anti-police riots at first will continue to increase in cities like Cincinnati, then they will dissipate as the
realization is that Jessie Jackson was really the one that wanted to keep them in bondage, not white America. The years 2005-2010 will be of brief ethnic discord. After 2012, America will see the wisdom in preserving much of its manufacturing as a national security issue - but not until then and not until the economy crashes. Instead of ethnic clashes, by this time we could see a middle class uprising cutting across ethnic lines as freshly minted college students will be frustrated by seeing their entry jobs disappear to India and China.
After 2015, China will have taken over Taiwan and other areas of Asia, included areas of Siberia that Russia demographically gave up. China may be in need of more land. The best real estate in the world for them is just a continent away. Their motivation has been to supplant us as the premier world power or hegemon. Heck, they talk about it now - how the 21st century will be theirs. This would also solve their male census imbalance problem. I can see them invading the US before 2025 via Alaska. We could start using tactical nukes. If China sends 200 million soldiers swarming over Siberia, Alaska, Canada and then the US. We will have killed a large portion of their army before they enter the lower 48. A lot will depend on the US anti-ballistic capabilities in the future. Still, at least 30 million will enter along with what air power they have (nanotechnology included). American technology and firepower will at last repel the invaders with a strong stand being taken in the center part of the US. Our SAC base in Omaha is in a great location. Hint, buy real estate in Colorado. After 2030, with the world in a shambles the rebuilding will began. A new golden age of civilization will dawn.
Please note that this scenario ends with the US surviving. We could also end during this cycle crisis period with the nation breaking down along civil - left/right or ethnic lines. Or China really could finish the USA (my gut tells me no though) or both. Europe could also make it easier for China to excel at our expense. I dont see us in a war with Europe, they don't have it in them. The UN will remain impotent.