The concept is the ?Catalyst Constellation Index? (though it may be screaming for new name).
This index is only relevant if one is in the orthodox, Strauss-n-Howian Saecularist school and believes (or at least strongly suspects) that generational interaction and alignment is the primary engine of saecular progression. More specifically, it comes from the assumption that when generations fully inhabit their respective life phase, society has become, for lack of a better word, ?ripe? for a new turning to begin. The old turning mood has become old and stale and the first waves of each generation are at least eyeing the next life phase/role, or are perhaps beginning to enter it already.
It is beginning at this point that society becomes most vulnerable to the sparks and trends of history in terms of those phenomena having the ability to affect a saecular mood change.
This concept assumes that the length of a phase of life is currently 21 years. However, in my conception of this index I believe this phase length used to be longer, affecting how to determine turning change ?ripeness?.
Lastly, I am assuming that Strauss & Howes? estimates for generational boundaries are correct (perhaps a big assumption, but more on that later).
Anyway, it goes like this. First, identify the age of the vanguard cohort of the generations that currently have their center of gravity in midlife, rising adulthood, and youth, respectively. Then line up those ages to the first three arithmetic permutations of 21 (i.e., 21, 42, 63). Then calculate how far off, up or down, each cohort is from these numbers. Add the differences. A result of zero indicates that, even though all the generations in question may not have passed or even hit the phase-transitioning age, the constellation as a whole indicates a fully ripe alignment. A positive number indicates a strong and rapidly growing probability of turning change, a low negative number indicates a weaker possibility, and a high negative number strongly indicates no immediate turning change likely.
Using this index, lets look at the last two turning transitions. Year X would be a hypothetical year with a ?perfect? constellational alignment. D is for delta, i.e., change.
Code:
X 1964 D 1984 D
63 63 0 59 -4
42 39 -3 41 -1
21 21 0 23 +2
CCI -3 -3
It seems that a Catalyst Constellation Index, or CCI, of ?3, at least based on the 21-year phase, is perfectly sufficient for a mood shift to begin.
Now lets view recent and future years.
Code:
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06
58 59 60 61 62 63
40 41 42 43 44 45
19 20 21 22 23 24
-9 -6 -3 0 +3 +6
Based on the past two turning shifts one can see why the effects of 9/11/01 were so ambiguous. As I?ve stated in this thread, the Culture Wars third turning was mature in September 2001, but not yet ripe. I would guess that a CCI of ?9 still indicates a lot of yet-to-be expunged saecular immaturity. However, this year, 2003, corresponds perfectly to 1964 and 1984, and next year brings us to zero hour.
One of the reasons I made such a big deal first off about the assumptions I have made is that you can come up with different assumptions and/or tweaks on all but one of them and still find this index useful. Only the Mike Alexander-led Materialist Cause school cannot be reconciled to this (as far as I can see). [BTW, for the record, I do not want to dismiss this group. Though I strongly suspect a primarily generational engine at work, I am very open to Mike?s very impressive work. I wouldn?t be surprised if his work strongly interrelates with Strauss & Howe?s assumptions. I am just not sure how at this point.]
But debate over the other assumptions could make this index even more interesting. What if, for example, Strauss and Howe are dead wrong about the Boom/Xer boundary, as some contend? What if 1963 is the Xer vanguard (please, I am only musing, I am not intending to insult ?61ers and ?62ers!!!). Then the above chart changes significantly. And so on.
The tweak that most interests me, on a number of levels, is the need to change the 21-year phase in order to get the CCI to work on turning shifts prior to the 1T/2T change of 1964. This is fascinating because: One, it brings us head on into the generational compaction debate; and Two, if we can ascertain the proper ?ideal? alignment(s) for cycles prior to this Millenial Cycle we can better understand how far off of a CCI of zero a turning change is likely to come.
I apologize if it seems like I am making a big deal out of this. I realize that this index would only be a very rough gauge. It?s just that several cups of coffee and a good run through the neighborhood can get one all "exercised" over an idea.