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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 316







Post#7876 at 03-05-2004 09:05 AM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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response to T.S.P. post

It would be interesting to get a Lost perspective-there may be a few extremely old survivors yet.

BTW, different in what way?

(~*~)







Post#7877 at 03-05-2004 01:23 PM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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Re: Anecdotal Evidence of Cascade Phase 4T.

Quote Originally Posted by Sean Love
Quote Originally Posted by Justin '77
Quote Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus
She told me that, as far as she's concerned, things are already getting worse now than they were then, even if in a radically different way from back then.
I'd love for more detail on what she singles out as particularly heinous right now. Did she say?
Ditto that.
Sean, you I will answer. She mentioned the fact that the vitriol is already boiling over on both sides, and fears for where it may lead.







Post#7878 at 03-05-2004 03:05 PM by Finch [at In the belly of the Beast joined Feb 2004 #posts 1,734]
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By "back then", do you mean around the '32 election cycle? I vaguely recall (from the part of History class I didn't sleep through) that the '32 election was already clearly a Regeneracy period (cf. the "100 Days"); surely E2004 is still an earlier point in the cycle.

But perhaps my memory serves me poorly; can anybody suggest a good book that details the mood surrounding that election?







Post#7879 at 03-05-2004 03:41 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Re: Anecdotal Evidence of Cascade Phase 4T.

Quote Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus
I was talking on the phone earlier this afternoon with my first Mother-in-law, who was born in 1918, and who thus remembers the Great Depression from the POV of the (GI Gen) teenager that she was at the time. She told me that, as far as she's concerned, things are already getting worse now than they were then, even if in a radically different way from back then.
Well 6% unemployed now vs. 25% then, does seem kinda radically different from back then. Maybe our threshold of what constitutes a "Crisis" has radically fallen? I mean, save for those wonderfully brief low employment years of the nineties, it would appear as though we've been in a full-blown domestic crisis ever since FDR died.

Yes, I think that must be it. America is always in a fourth turn, especially when those rotten Republicans are runnin' the show.







Post#7880 at 03-05-2004 04:54 PM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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Re: Anecdotal Evidence of Cascade Phase 4T.

Quote Originally Posted by oy
America is always in a fourth turn,
Makes as much sense as your idea of the PERMANENT 3T, Marc. :lol:







Post#7881 at 03-05-2004 05:29 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Re: Anecdotal Evidence of Cascade Phase 4T.

Quote Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus
Quote Originally Posted by oy
America is always in a fourth turn,
Makes as much sense as your idea of the PERMANENT 3T, Marc. :lol:
Actually I prefer the idea of a permanent first turn (Reagan's eternal "There's got to be a pony in here somewhere," optimism), but one kooky idea (my being a confessed conservative) is difficult enough to have to defend at this website.







Post#7882 at 03-05-2004 10:14 PM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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Re: Anecdotal Evidence of Cascade Phase 4T.

Quote Originally Posted by oy
Actually I prefer the idea of a permanent first turn
As would I, if it could only be done. Unfortunately, a generation like ours, which has no first hand recollection of how bad it can get, will always eventually come along to muck things up coming of age.

Still, your idea beats Eric Meece's heartfelt desire for a permanent second turn every way from Sunday.







Post#7883 at 03-06-2004 12:00 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Permanent Crisis Almost Plausible...

Quote Originally Posted by Titus Sabinus Parthicus
Quote Originally Posted by oy
Actually I prefer the idea of a permanent first turn
As would I, if it could only be done. Unfortunately, a generation like ours, which has no first hand recollection of how bad it can get, will always eventually come along to muck things up coming of age.

Still, your idea beats Eric Meece's heartfelt desire for a permanent second turn every way from Sunday.
Could be worse. From the Opium Wars through the Great Leap Forward, one might argue that China achieved a semi-permanent Crisis. When people suggest China is about to leap head first into a new Crisis era, I tend to get a bit dubious. They have a deeper appreciation than most about just how bad things can get.

I don't believe in permanent second turn at all. While S&H project a cycle to last a generation, nigh on 20 years, awakenings seem much shorter. The emotional frenzy just doesn't sustain. I'd start with JFK's assassination and the Beatles arrival, and end it with Nixon and Watergate. The GI's earnest striving to do great things and the Boomer's optimism for an Aquarian Age both shriveled up into selfishness and cynicism about then.

I believe that a great deal of the force behind the cycles comes from changing technology. Society must adjust to the reality of new industries and new problems. Those generating the new wealth will strive for a way to acquire power matching the wealth.

Plausibly, scientific progress might slow or stagnate someday. Plausibly, the insertion of new technologies might stop, resulting in a reduced force for change.

Not in the short term. Nanotechnology and genetic engineering are about to take off. Computers and networks have reached a certain maturity, but they haven't started arguing with us yet. To me, the next crisis, late this century, is vague. I don't see us establishing population controls in the current crisis. That might be the core issue next time. Without knowing what might be done with genetics, and thus what resources will be available, it is hard to project.

But I'd expect at least one more trip around the cycles. Beyond that, things look mighty fuzzy.







Post#7884 at 03-07-2004 02:04 AM by Finch [at In the belly of the Beast joined Feb 2004 #posts 1,734]
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I agree that neither China nor Russia is likely to be the enemy in the next Crisis, and that an internal civil war is also highly unlikely. Who/what then will the enemy be?

The most reasonable suggestion I have heard is somewhere in the Middle East (probably closely related to an economic crisis regarding peak oil.) But the only way I could see a Middle East problem escalating to a full-blown Crisis war (perceived to threaten the very existence of the US) would be if somehow the US turned its back on Israel. Maybe I just lack imagination, but I can't conceive of any scenario where that would happen.
Can somebody here, perhaps with more insight into the Middle East, provide some possible scenario where Israel actually loses US support?

Also, I'm still hoping somebody in this forum can recommend a good book describing what people were actually thinking and feeling during the last Cascade Phase / "Phony Fourth". Thanks in advance!







Post#7885 at 03-07-2004 09:50 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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Quote Originally Posted by FaithAndReason '67
The most reasonable suggestion I have heard is somewhere in the Middle East (probably closely related to an economic crisis regarding peak oil.) But the only way I could see a Middle East problem escalating to a full-blown Crisis war (perceived to threaten the very existence of the US) would be if somehow the US turned its back on Israel. Maybe I just lack imagination, but I can't conceive of any scenario where that would happen.
Can somebody here, perhaps with more insight into the Middle East, provide some possible scenario where Israel actually loses US support?
If Kerry wins the election based solely on his ability to mobilise the Democrat base (The only way he can win under present US political conditions, IMO. The same goes for Bush and the Republican base, BTW.), I am absolutely certain that he'll be under enormous pressure from some parts of his base to do just that. Just as Bush would be under equally enormous pressure from his base to stand by Israel at all costs, should he win.







Post#7886 at 03-07-2004 12:40 PM by Croakmore [at The hazardous reefs of Silentium joined Nov 2001 #posts 2,426]
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Quote Originally Posted by FaithAndReason '67
...Also, I'm still hoping somebody in this forum can recommend a good book describing what people were actually thinking and feeling during the last Cascade Phase / "Phony Fourth". Thanks in advance!
"Grapes Of Wrath" J. Steinbeck







Post#7887 at 03-07-2004 05:50 PM by AlexMnWi [at Minneapolis joined Jun 2002 #posts 1,622]
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Croaker, wasn't that more about the late 30's? Or does it take place a few years earlier than it is published?
1987 INTP







Post#7888 at 03-07-2004 06:06 PM by Croakmore [at The hazardous reefs of Silentium joined Nov 2001 #posts 2,426]
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Quote Originally Posted by AlexMnWi
Croaker, wasn't that more about the late 30's? Or does it take place a few years earlier than it is published?
Hmm. You're right, Alex. Where would you place the last Cascade? Maybe I need to brush up on Cascades.







Post#7889 at 03-07-2004 08:21 PM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Not too coherent rambling...

Quote Originally Posted by Croakmore
Quote Originally Posted by AlexMnWi
Croaker, wasn't that more about the late 30's? Or does it take place a few years earlier than it is published?
Hmm. You're right, Alex. Where would you place the last Cascade? Maybe I need to brush up on Cascades.
I'm not sure we really decided just where the limits of the Cascade were over in the Cascade thread. My opinion...

FDR's was a double crisis, with the economic issues surfacing first, really only solved by war spending.

On the Military side, the Spanish Civil War was the early dry run. There was then a considerable pause before the invasion of Poland officially started the 'phony war' in Europe. Japan was in China early too. If "Cascade" is defined as that period when increasingly larger use of force gets thrown back and fourth, you could begin it as early as the occupation of the Rhine, definitely the invasions of Poland and China.

The United States mood was mostly isolationist until Morrow started doing play by plays of the Battle of Britain. If the Regeneracy in the United States meant a building of consensus that the US had to become a proactive world power, the regeneracy started with Morrow. The Four Freedoms Speech in early 1941 to me says 'regeneracy over.' At that point, the US was pretty well committed to the allies. Pearl Harbor was of course the last catalyst which got us 100% involved in the shooting. Cascade definitely over at that point, climax crisis mode was fully active.

The Iraq / Afghanistan conflicts might correspond with the Spanish Civil War, maybe the invasion of Poland. Maybe the issues we are dealing with now in the Middle East reflect a larger war to come.

We have had recent economic troubles, but they feel more to me like just another unraveling recession than an end of the world crisis. The early Bush 43 years were not "The Great Devaluation."







Post#7890 at 03-07-2004 09:52 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Croakmore
Quote Originally Posted by AlexMnWi
Croaker, wasn't that more about the late 30's? Or does it take place a few years earlier than it is published?
Hmm. You're right, Alex. Where would you place the last Cascade? Maybe I need to brush up on Cascades.
I offerred "cascade" as an alternative to whatever other terms we had theretofore been using for the time period between a 4T trigger event and the subsequent regeneracy.

The other terms we usually used, such as "pre-regeneracy", just didn't do it for me. I kept thinking "meltdown" but that didn't quite get it either. Then I ran across this definition of cascade:

?a series of sequential interactions, which once initiated continues to a new equilibrium; each interaction is activated by the preceding one, often with cumulative effect.?

Eureka!
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#7891 at 03-07-2004 09:53 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Quote Originally Posted by Croakmore
Quote Originally Posted by FaithAndReason '67
...Also, I'm still hoping somebody in this forum can recommend a good book describing what people were actually thinking and feeling during the last Cascade Phase / "Phony Fourth". Thanks in advance!
"Grapes Of Wrath" J. Steinbeck
What I remember most from the Grapes Of Wrath was the scene where there the preacher confessed to Fonda he had lost the Holy Ghost (later the preacher lost his life too), and, of course, that grand finale where the Joad family finally enters into the promised land where they excitedly find... ?

Federal Government-subsidized public toilets.

Now that's a pot to ____ in, huh! Course, ya had to understand what this marvelous beast, such as a toilet, wuz back in dem daze ta understand thuh catch. :wink:







Post#7892 at 03-07-2004 11:42 PM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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I like that term, "cascade." It describes the years of the Hoover administration, and the early years of the Civil War prior to the issuance of the Emancipation Proclamation, and the years from the Boston Tea Party until the Declaration of Independence. Things moving faster and faster . . .

But it's important to recognize that every Crisis era is different. The current Crisis will involve economic troubles, but probably not a Depression-style total meltdown as its central event. The catalyst certainly wasn't economic. So comparing the current economic woes to the much worse ones that occurred this time last saeculum makes no more sense than to compare our relations with the British to those of 1775.

What I see this Crisis as involving is a single lynchpin issue uniting three subsidiary ones. The lynchpin is nationalism versus internationalism. The three subsidiary issues are war and peace, the global economy, and the global environment. The first subsidiary was the one that hit first (something I wouldn't have predicted but it happened). We're faced with an enemy that can't be defeated by America acting alone. Trying to do that, as Bush has done almost from the beginning, only gets us mired deeper and deeper into protracted, sputtering wars. We need an international solution to terrorism. We also need an international solution to the mess of the global economy, and will eventually need one for the global environmental crisis, although that won't hit full-force for another five or six years. We've cascaded during the time since 9/11/01, and are faced with a need to reverse course. That's why I see this election, like the one of 1932, as holding out the possibility of regeneracy (assuming Bush is defeated).







Post#7893 at 03-08-2004 01:02 AM by Roadbldr '59 [at Vancouver, Washington joined Jul 2001 #posts 8,275]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Rush
I like that term, "cascade." It describes the years of the Hoover administration, and the early years of the Civil War prior to the issuance of the Emancipation Proclamation, and the years from the Boston Tea Party until the Declaration of Independence. Things moving faster and faster . . .

But it's important to recognize that every Crisis era is different. The current Crisis will involve economic troubles, but probably not a Depression-style total meltdown as its central event. The catalyst certainly wasn't economic. So comparing the current economic woes to the much worse ones that occurred this time last saeculum makes no more sense than to compare our relations with the British to those of 1775.

What I see this Crisis as involving is a single lynchpin issue uniting three subsidiary ones. The lynchpin is nationalism versus internationalism. The three subsidiary issues are war and peace, the global economy, and the global environment. The first subsidiary was the one that hit first (something I wouldn't have predicted but it happened). We're faced with an enemy that can't be defeated by America acting alone. Trying to do that, as Bush has done almost from the beginning, only gets us mired deeper and deeper into protracted, sputtering wars. We need an international solution to terrorism. We also need an international solution to the mess of the global economy, and will eventually need one for the global environmental crisis, although that won't hit full-force for another five or six years. We've cascaded during the time since 9/11/01, and are faced with a need to reverse course. That's why I see this election, like the one of 1932, as holding out the possibility of regeneracy (assuming Bush is defeated).
I agree with most of what you have said, Brian, except that even if Bush is re-elected the '04 Election could trigger the Regeneracy. Americans could follow the President off the nearest cliff as sort of an Anti-GC, resulting in wholesale civil disobedience (or worse) against's the President's policies when things get really bad.







Post#7894 at 03-08-2004 01:47 AM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Lynchpin

Would that be oil?

(~*~)







Post#7895 at 03-08-2004 11:28 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Rush
I like that term, "cascade." It describes the years of the Hoover administration, and the early years of the Civil War prior to the issuance of the Emancipation Proclamation, and the years from the Boston Tea Party until the Declaration of Independence. Things moving faster and faster . . .

But it's important to recognize that every Crisis era is different. The current Crisis will involve economic troubles, but probably not a Depression-style total meltdown as its central event. The catalyst certainly wasn't economic. So comparing the current economic woes to the much worse ones that occurred this time last saeculum makes no more sense than to compare our relations with the British to those of 1775.

What I see this Crisis as involving is a single lynchpin issue uniting three subsidiary ones. The lynchpin is nationalism versus internationalism. The three subsidiary issues are war and peace, the global economy, and the global environment. The first subsidiary was the one that hit first (something I wouldn't have predicted but it happened). We're faced with an enemy that can't be defeated by America acting alone. Trying to do that, as Bush has done almost from the beginning, only gets us mired deeper and deeper into protracted, sputtering wars. We need an international solution to terrorism. We also need an international solution to the mess of the global economy, and will eventually need one for the global environmental crisis, although that won't hit full-force for another five or six years. We've cascaded during the time since 9/11/01, and are faced with a need to reverse course. That's why I see this election, like the one of 1932, as holding out the possibility of regeneracy (assuming Bush is defeated).
Brian,

Welcome back, sir!

I know you are in the "We be 4T" camp. Though I currently lean toward the other side I am still struck by the ambiguous nature of what I perceive. That's why I still use the Phony Fourth concept -- "A: Are we in a 3T or 4T right now? B: Yes."

I do not see the events of 9/11 to now as being worthy of the cascading action we saw in the years immediately after Black Tuesday, Harper's Ferry, or the Tea Party. For sure I have not seen us (to my mind) pass a point of no return like the doldrums of 1931, Bull Run, or Lexington.

However, I'm open to being convinced.

One way in which I could be convinced is along the 'Silent Fourth' route. That is, though 9/11 may have been the trigger, the remaining influence of the Silent Artist-archetype is making the transition a slow but nevertheless sure one. That would make a long transition very plausible.

Another way is what we could call the 'Mild Fourth', like a mild winter. As Alex and you have pointed out, a 4T doesn't have to be of epic or catastrophic proportions to do it's work. Mid-nineteenth-century Britain is often used as an example.

My problem with the "mild" route is that I see Strauss & Howes' saecular cycle intensifying as a result of generational compaction and deepening linearism. I think this makes the mild course less likely than ever.

On your other point, I agree that the number one problem facing humanity in the 21 century will be the need for a new type of community to replace national/parochial bonds. The closest thing we've seen thus far is the international "working-class" concept, but that was based in materialism and was still exclusionary in that an "Other" was still generally part and parcel of its, er, "charm". So it was an unmitigated disaster.

No, this new bonding needs to be emotional and spiritual as much as anything else to be truly transcendent of more chauvinistic concerns. Whether that will be addressed in this 4T seems unlikely to me, but rather an issue for the next 2T.

I like to refer to what's coming as "The Great Reckoning" in that many things we've been putting off, or blinding ourselves to, are about to knock us on the head in a severe fashion.

I will nevertheless give your "lynchpin" some more thought as it can be used to fit the facts of what we see.

Thanks, and again, welcome back.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#7896 at 03-08-2004 11:37 AM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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Good to be back, Sean.

As far as the dynamics and the fireworks are concerned, I think this Crisis in its early stages resembles the American Revolution more than it does the Civil War or the Depression. After the Boston Tea Party, not all that much happened for most Americans. Parliament had a cow, Boston got the Punitive Acts, the Committees of Correspondence went into action, and the Continental Congress began to meet. Definitely observable, but not so much of a much until you got the skirmishes at Lexington and Concord, and Bunker Hill. Then came the Declaration of Independence, the appointment of Washington and the creation of the Continental Army, the drafting of the Articles of Confederation, and so on, leading to years of hard war, independence, and the Constitution. The momentum was pretty slow, in other words, until after the Regeneracy. By contrast, both the Civil War and the Great Depression cascaded very quickly.

What's confirming me in my 4T opinion is the contrast between this year's election and those of 2000 and 2002, particularly in the types of issues the Democrats are talking. In a 3T, real issues are avoided in favor of symbolic ones. In a 4T, the real takes precedence, and that seems to be happening.







Post#7897 at 03-08-2004 12:15 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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Re: Permanent Crisis Almost Plausible...

Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
I don't believe in permanent second turn at all. While S&H project a cycle to last a generation, nigh on 20 years, awakenings seem much shorter. The emotional frenzy just doesn't sustain. I'd start with JFK's assassination and the Beatles arrival, and end it with Nixon and Watergate. The GI's earnest striving to do great things and the Boomer's optimism for an Aquarian Age both shriveled up into selfishness and cynicism about then.
An Awakening is a challenge to social norms. The flood of women back to work in the late Seventies, as well as the explosion of divorce and widespread and open sex between unwed partners was certainly a challenge to the pre-Awakening societal norms.

I'm undecided whether the Awakening ended on Election Day 1980, when Ronald Reagan won what was supposed to be a close election by a landslide and ushered in an era of Looking Out for Number One, or whether it ended somewhat later, but it was certainly in full force in the late Seventies.

The Unravelling saw the widespread acceptance of many of these changes, as well as a curbing of the excesses.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#7898 at 03-08-2004 12:28 PM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
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Re: Permanent Crisis Almost Plausible...

Quote Originally Posted by The Wonk
I'm undecided whether the Awakening ended on Election Day 1980, when Ronald Reagan won what was supposed to be a close election by a landslide and ushered in an era of Looking Out for Number One, or whether it ended somewhat later, but it was certainly in full force in the late Seventies.
I've always tended to think in terms of E1980 as the transition point - or else the seemingly twin events of the previous year (the Iranian Hostage Crisis and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan.) I've often thought that it was those two events put together that made Reagan's landslide victory the following year possible, if not inevitable.







Post#7899 at 03-08-2004 12:46 PM by Croakmore [at The hazardous reefs of Silentium joined Nov 2001 #posts 2,426]
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Quote Originally Posted by Sean Love
...I like to refer to what's coming as "The Great Reckoning" in that many things we've been putting off, or blinding ourselves to, are about to knock us on the head in a severe fashion...
I feel this in my bones. Our infrastructure reminds me of Seattle's sagging seawall. I think I see the waiter coming this way. Consumption of this kind can't last forever. If it did we would be consumed by our own wastes.

--Croak







Post#7900 at 03-08-2004 01:37 PM by Vince Lamb '59 [at Irish Hills, Michigan joined Jun 2001 #posts 1,997]
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And now, yet another sign that the 3T culturama is coming to a close. Standard disclaimers apply.

Stern Believes Radio Reign Coming to End

NEW YORK (AP) - Shock jock and self-proclaimed ``King of All Media'' Howard Stern believes his reign on the radio is coming to an end. ``The show is over,'' he announced Friday morning on his nationally syndicated radio program. ``It's over.''

It's not - at least not yet. But Stern predicted that a Federal Communications Communication crackdown on indecency on the airwaves will force his salacious show off the dial.

``I'm guessing that sometime next week will be my last show on this station,'' said Stern, adding that he expected the FCC to hit him with a whopping indecency fine. ``There's a cultural war going on. The religious right is winning. We're losing.''

A telephone call to Infinity Broadcasting, which syndicates Stern's show, was not returned Saturday to discuss Stern's comments.

On Friday, Stern devoted the first 2 1/2 hours of his show to his anticipated demise, a change of pace from the usual fare of naked women and toilet humor.

Clear Channel Communications yanked Stern from stations in San Diego, Pittsburgh, Rochester, N.Y., Louisville, Ky., and Fort Lauderdale and Orlando, Fla. on Feb. 25. The company said the suspension would last until the Stern show met its programming guidelines.

``This time they have to fire me,'' Stern said. ``I'm through. I'm a dead man walking.''

On Thursday, Clear Channel paid a record $755,000 fine levied last month by the FCC for indecent material aired by several of its stations.
"Dans cette epoque cybernetique
Pleine de gents informatique."
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