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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 322







Post#8026 at 04-16-2004 09:22 PM by Roadbldr '59 [at Vancouver, Washington joined Jul 2001 #posts 8,275]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Rick Hirst
Quote Originally Posted by Tristan
http://www.city-journal.org/html/14_2_its_morning.html

This article seems to showing some Crisis signs in American society, for example X'ers are starting to settle down in a big way. Along with many other social trends which started in the unravelling and increase in the coming Crisis and High.
Woohoo! Strauss & Howe in the mainstream press!
This is nothing new, of course. It was a full-section spread in a mainstream newspaper-- The Las Vegas Sun-- that first got me intrigued about "The Fourth Turning", soon to be published in January 1997.







Post#8027 at 04-16-2004 09:22 PM by Roadbldr '59 [at Vancouver, Washington joined Jul 2001 #posts 8,275]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Rick Hirst
Quote Originally Posted by Tristan
http://www.city-journal.org/html/14_2_its_morning.html

This article seems to showing some Crisis signs in American society, for example X'ers are starting to settle down in a big way. Along with many other social trends which started in the unravelling and increase in the coming Crisis and High.
Woohoo! Strauss & Howe in the mainstream press!
This is nothing new, of course. It was a full-section spread in a mainstream newspaper-- The Las Vegas Sun-- that first got me intrigued about "The Fourth Turning", soon to be published in January 1997.







Post#8028 at 04-16-2004 10:06 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Tristan
http://www.city-journal.org/html/14_2_its_morning.html

This article seems to showing some Crisis signs in American society, for example X'ers are starting to settle down in a big way. Along with many other social trends which started in the unravelling and increase in the coming Crisis and High
Tristan, thank you very much for the article. I really enjoyed it.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#8029 at 04-16-2004 10:06 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Tristan
http://www.city-journal.org/html/14_2_its_morning.html

This article seems to showing some Crisis signs in American society, for example X'ers are starting to settle down in a big way. Along with many other social trends which started in the unravelling and increase in the coming Crisis and High
Tristan, thank you very much for the article. I really enjoyed it.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#8030 at 04-16-2004 11:41 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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An economy's sunset glow

3T shocker in the information economy of California.



The California-based industry is worth billions of dollars a year and is said to be more profitable than Hollywood.



What will our politicians do to revive this limp sector of the GDP? Does Mr. Kerry have a plan? Mr. Bush? Mr. Nader?







Post#8031 at 04-16-2004 11:41 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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An economy's sunset glow

3T shocker in the information economy of California.



The California-based industry is worth billions of dollars a year and is said to be more profitable than Hollywood.



What will our politicians do to revive this limp sector of the GDP? Does Mr. Kerry have a plan? Mr. Bush? Mr. Nader?







Post#8032 at 04-17-2004 10:53 AM by Brian Beecher [at Downers Grove, IL joined Sep 2001 #posts 2,937]
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Nobody I know wants Bush

The study revealing that 62 percent of 18 to 29 years olds support Bush is a big shocking to me. I know noboday of any age I have talked to recently who wants to see Bush re-elected. In fact, they all seem totally turned off by him. Yet many are not sure Kerry is the answer, either.

One poster mentioned the "Harper Valley PTA" syndrome. This was reminiscent of the Clinton impeachment proceedings. In them he was being judged as perhaps unfit to be President by people who were deemed guilty of many of the same travesties themselves.







Post#8033 at 04-17-2004 10:53 AM by Brian Beecher [at Downers Grove, IL joined Sep 2001 #posts 2,937]
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Nobody I know wants Bush

The study revealing that 62 percent of 18 to 29 years olds support Bush is a big shocking to me. I know noboday of any age I have talked to recently who wants to see Bush re-elected. In fact, they all seem totally turned off by him. Yet many are not sure Kerry is the answer, either.

One poster mentioned the "Harper Valley PTA" syndrome. This was reminiscent of the Clinton impeachment proceedings. In them he was being judged as perhaps unfit to be President by people who were deemed guilty of many of the same travesties themselves.







Post#8034 at 04-18-2004 05:20 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Re: Nobody I know wants Bush

Quote Originally Posted by Brian Beecher
The study revealing that 62 percent of 18 to 29 years olds support Bush is a big shocking to me. I know noboday of any age I have talked to recently who wants to see Bush re-elected. In fact, they all seem totally turned off by him. Yet many are not sure Kerry is the answer, either.
I've had a similar feeling in Massachusetts. While I keep hearing Bush 43 has high approval ratings, one seldom encounters real people who approve of him.

Of course, this [is] Massachusetts.







Post#8035 at 04-18-2004 05:20 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Re: Nobody I know wants Bush

Quote Originally Posted by Brian Beecher
The study revealing that 62 percent of 18 to 29 years olds support Bush is a big shocking to me. I know noboday of any age I have talked to recently who wants to see Bush re-elected. In fact, they all seem totally turned off by him. Yet many are not sure Kerry is the answer, either.
I've had a similar feeling in Massachusetts. While I keep hearing Bush 43 has high approval ratings, one seldom encounters real people who approve of him.

Of course, this [is] Massachusetts.







Post#8036 at 04-18-2004 07:21 AM by Mustang [at Confederate States of America joined May 2003 #posts 2,303]
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Re: Nobody I know wants Bush

Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
Quote Originally Posted by Brian Beecher
The study revealing that 62 percent of 18 to 29 years olds support Bush is a big shocking to me. I know noboday of any age I have talked to recently who wants to see Bush re-elected. In fact, they all seem totally turned off by him. Yet many are not sure Kerry is the answer, either.
I've had a similar feeling in Massachusetts. While I keep hearing Bush 43 has high approval ratings, one seldom encounters real people who approve of him.

Of course, this [is] Massachusetts.
I thought I just saw a poll (posted here perhaps?) which showed that Millies as a generation are far and away the least supportive of Junior's junta. We have numbers all over the place. Zogby is the only known reliable pollster but I have not checked his polls lately. Regardless, the current creeps in the White House are strictly a Boomer fetish, pure and simple. A cult of personality since all the ideas have been abandoned.
"What went unforeseen, however, was that the elephant would at some point in the last years of the 20th century be possessed, in both body and spirit, by a coincident fusion of mutant ex-Liberals and holy-rolling Theocrats masquerading as conservatives in the tradition of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan: Death by transmogrification, beginning with The Invasion of the Party Snatchers."

-- Victor Gold, Aide to Barry Goldwater







Post#8037 at 04-18-2004 07:21 AM by Mustang [at Confederate States of America joined May 2003 #posts 2,303]
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Re: Nobody I know wants Bush

Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
Quote Originally Posted by Brian Beecher
The study revealing that 62 percent of 18 to 29 years olds support Bush is a big shocking to me. I know noboday of any age I have talked to recently who wants to see Bush re-elected. In fact, they all seem totally turned off by him. Yet many are not sure Kerry is the answer, either.
I've had a similar feeling in Massachusetts. While I keep hearing Bush 43 has high approval ratings, one seldom encounters real people who approve of him.

Of course, this [is] Massachusetts.
I thought I just saw a poll (posted here perhaps?) which showed that Millies as a generation are far and away the least supportive of Junior's junta. We have numbers all over the place. Zogby is the only known reliable pollster but I have not checked his polls lately. Regardless, the current creeps in the White House are strictly a Boomer fetish, pure and simple. A cult of personality since all the ideas have been abandoned.
"What went unforeseen, however, was that the elephant would at some point in the last years of the 20th century be possessed, in both body and spirit, by a coincident fusion of mutant ex-Liberals and holy-rolling Theocrats masquerading as conservatives in the tradition of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan: Death by transmogrification, beginning with The Invasion of the Party Snatchers."

-- Victor Gold, Aide to Barry Goldwater







Post#8038 at 04-18-2004 10:15 AM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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Seadog, Zogby as of 4/4/04 shows the president with 47% positive, 53% negative.







Post#8039 at 04-18-2004 10:15 AM by Brian Rush [at California joined Jul 2001 #posts 12,392]
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Seadog, Zogby as of 4/4/04 shows the president with 47% positive, 53% negative.







Post#8040 at 04-18-2004 10:57 AM by Andy '85 [at Texas joined Aug 2003 #posts 1,465]
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That seems to be a sensible ratio although to me it means little if it does not show a substantial majority on either side. Make it at least a 60/40 and then we're talking a better feeling of consensus.







Post#8041 at 04-18-2004 10:57 AM by Andy '85 [at Texas joined Aug 2003 #posts 1,465]
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That seems to be a sensible ratio although to me it means little if it does not show a substantial majority on either side. Make it at least a 60/40 and then we're talking a better feeling of consensus.







Post#8042 at 04-18-2004 02:19 PM by Mustang [at Confederate States of America joined May 2003 #posts 2,303]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Rush
Seadog, Zogby as of 4/4/04 shows the president with 47% positive, 53% negative.
Yes, but does he have a recent one broken down by generational age groupings? We need to see how he represents Millie support for the current regime. I'll check later if I think of it.
"What went unforeseen, however, was that the elephant would at some point in the last years of the 20th century be possessed, in both body and spirit, by a coincident fusion of mutant ex-Liberals and holy-rolling Theocrats masquerading as conservatives in the tradition of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan: Death by transmogrification, beginning with The Invasion of the Party Snatchers."

-- Victor Gold, Aide to Barry Goldwater







Post#8043 at 04-18-2004 02:19 PM by Mustang [at Confederate States of America joined May 2003 #posts 2,303]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Rush
Seadog, Zogby as of 4/4/04 shows the president with 47% positive, 53% negative.
Yes, but does he have a recent one broken down by generational age groupings? We need to see how he represents Millie support for the current regime. I'll check later if I think of it.
"What went unforeseen, however, was that the elephant would at some point in the last years of the 20th century be possessed, in both body and spirit, by a coincident fusion of mutant ex-Liberals and holy-rolling Theocrats masquerading as conservatives in the tradition of Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan: Death by transmogrification, beginning with The Invasion of the Party Snatchers."

-- Victor Gold, Aide to Barry Goldwater







Post#8044 at 04-18-2004 09:19 PM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate
A quote from "article":
  • Look, for instance, at what?s happening to teen alienation. If Millennials have a problem with authority, it?s that they wish they had more of it... Young voters are also more supportive of President Bush than the public at large, with 18- to 29-year-olds giving him a 62 percent approval rating.
They probably felt the same way about Harding or Calvin Coolidge. After all, according to S&H, these new authoritarians started coming of age right after WWI, in 1920 (which is the year 2000 on this cycle's watch).

In the meantime, this ain't a good sign for the party of William Jefferson Clinton or JFK. Maybe Hillary can woo 'em in 2008, eh? 8)
Marc,

The Millennials have not emerged politically as a generation. The Millennials like the GI's before them will support either one of the major parties pretty strongly, like the GI's supported the Democratic party pretty strongly.







Post#8045 at 04-18-2004 09:19 PM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate
A quote from "article":
  • Look, for instance, at what?s happening to teen alienation. If Millennials have a problem with authority, it?s that they wish they had more of it... Young voters are also more supportive of President Bush than the public at large, with 18- to 29-year-olds giving him a 62 percent approval rating.
They probably felt the same way about Harding or Calvin Coolidge. After all, according to S&H, these new authoritarians started coming of age right after WWI, in 1920 (which is the year 2000 on this cycle's watch).

In the meantime, this ain't a good sign for the party of William Jefferson Clinton or JFK. Maybe Hillary can woo 'em in 2008, eh? 8)
Marc,

The Millennials have not emerged politically as a generation. The Millennials like the GI's before them will support either one of the major parties pretty strongly, like the GI's supported the Democratic party pretty strongly.







Post#8046 at 04-18-2004 09:22 PM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Rush
Seadog, Zogby as of 4/4/04 shows the president with 47% positive, 53% negative.
Brian,

There is some 6 to 7 months until the presidental election, predicting an election that far out is very hard to do.

Given my political feelings and some reasonably well-informed analysis. There is a very good chance that Bush will win the presidental election and a reasonable chance that he will win in a landslide.

Mind you I do not have much of a feel for the generational mood in the United States currently, Australia is still deep in the 3T.







Post#8047 at 04-18-2004 09:22 PM by Tristan [at Melbourne, Australia joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,249]
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Quote Originally Posted by Brian Rush
Seadog, Zogby as of 4/4/04 shows the president with 47% positive, 53% negative.
Brian,

There is some 6 to 7 months until the presidental election, predicting an election that far out is very hard to do.

Given my political feelings and some reasonably well-informed analysis. There is a very good chance that Bush will win the presidental election and a reasonable chance that he will win in a landslide.

Mind you I do not have much of a feel for the generational mood in the United States currently, Australia is still deep in the 3T.







Post#8048 at 04-18-2004 09:43 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Rick Hirst
That is clearly one of his strong points, but it also means that support will be quite fickle. We see this already in a more recent poll: College students now saying they like Kerry better. It also highlights a lack of support for GOP positions in general... And Marc, does your wife know about this unhealthy obsession you have with HRC?
Oh, I disagree. Just ask the McGovernites from 1972. Given that I falsely predicted the the GOP would break a sixty-eight year long midterm election trend in 2002, I wouldn't dare to crawl out on the limb again this year. And, yes, my "obession" with HRC is rather cumbersome baggage I needless haul around.

I was just trying to be funny and obnoxious as usual with my post. Please ignore. :wink:







Post#8049 at 04-18-2004 09:43 PM by [at joined #posts ]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Rick Hirst
That is clearly one of his strong points, but it also means that support will be quite fickle. We see this already in a more recent poll: College students now saying they like Kerry better. It also highlights a lack of support for GOP positions in general... And Marc, does your wife know about this unhealthy obsession you have with HRC?
Oh, I disagree. Just ask the McGovernites from 1972. Given that I falsely predicted the the GOP would break a sixty-eight year long midterm election trend in 2002, I wouldn't dare to crawl out on the limb again this year. And, yes, my "obession" with HRC is rather cumbersome baggage I needless haul around.

I was just trying to be funny and obnoxious as usual with my post. Please ignore. :wink:







Post#8050 at 04-19-2004 12:39 AM by Roadbldr '59 [at Vancouver, Washington joined Jul 2001 #posts 8,275]
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Re: Some Fourth Turning Signs

Quote Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate
Quote Originally Posted by Rick Hirst
That is clearly one of his strong points, but it also means that support will be quite fickle. We see this already in a more recent poll: College students now saying they like Kerry better. It also highlights a lack of support for GOP positions in general... And Marc, does your wife know about this unhealthy obsession you have with HRC?
Oh, I disagree. Just ask the McGovernites from 1972. Given that I falsely predicted the the GOP would break a sixty-eight year long midterm election trend in 2002, I wouldn't dare to crawl out on the limb again this year. And, yes, my "obession" with HRC is rather cumbersome baggage I needless haul around.

I was just trying to be funny and obnoxious as usual with my post. Please ignore. :wink:
May I submit that we won't have a clue as to how the Millies really feel until the Decision '04 exit polling begins? This is, after all, the very first Presidential election in which significant numbers of Millennials are eligible to vote at all! It is very possible that many of them haven't made up their minds just yet. Why don't we let them do just that? (FWIW, my now-17-year-old nephew, who will be eligible to vote this fall, seemed to lean Bush last time around...don't know if he still does or not. I imagine it may hinge on how he feels about his Dad being directly involved in the War).

And what do the McGovernites of '72 have to do with anything, anyway??? Not only were absolutely none of the new Millennial voters born yet, but fully half of the Xers weren't either!
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