Originally Posted by Croakmore

Please pardon the interruption, but I'm having memes about the re-thinkability of using nuclear weapons in Iraq, and maybe even in Afghanistan. Just now a debate arises in the respectable journal Scientific American (August 2004) over the pros and cons of deploying Bunker-Busting Nuclear Missiles, especially in the bunker-infested Middle East.

You can read all about the technical advantages: deep penetration, wide radius of destruction, minimal fall out -- you know, the usual stuff that justifies it all in the end -- the 4T end?

Are we winding up for another nuclear punch? The last one or two certainly did leave their marks on history.

--Croakmore

Somebody will attempt to land the nuclear punch. If Vegas gave odds, I place money on it. And probably one of the new members of the nuke club will give the order.

Originally Posted by Croakmore

Please pardon the interruption, but I'm having memes about the re-thinkability of using nuclear weapons in Iraq, and maybe even in Afghanistan. Just now a debate arises in the respectable journal Scientific American (August 2004) over the pros and cons of deploying Bunker-Busting Nuclear Missiles, especially in the bunker-infested Middle East.

You can read all about the technical advantages: deep penetration, wide radius of destruction, minimal fall out -- you know, the usual stuff that justifies it all in the end -- the 4T end?

Are we winding up for another nuclear punch? The last one or two certainly did leave their marks on history.

--Croakmore

Their use in the 4T is likely. It's a brave new world, sir.

For anyone interested, William Strauss is scheduled to be interviewed tonight on Coast to Coast AM (Tuesday August 24), interview probably starting after 11:00 p.m. Pacific time.
A listing of affiliate stations can be found at www.coasttocoastam.com.

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

For anyone interested, William Strauss is scheduled to be interviewed tonight on Coast to Coast AM (Tuesday August 24), interview probably starting after 11:00 p.m. Pacific time.
A listing of affiliate stations can be found at www.coasttocoastam.com.

Thanks Mandelbrot!!!

I listened to the first hour (but now I have to go to bed) but it is clear that he sees 9/11 as a "precursor" and that the fourth turning has not yet begun yet. However he was calling the 2002 election "the first fourth turning election" a couple of years ago. It seems he has changed his mind. I can't blame him, the Phony Fourth could be argued from either way.

An aside: Whoever is hosting that show, though polite and friendly to Bill, is pretty clueless.

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

For anyone interested, William Strauss is scheduled to be interviewed tonight on Coast to Coast AM (Tuesday August 24), interview probably starting after 11:00 p.m. Pacific time.
A listing of affiliate stations can be found at www.coasttocoastam.com.

Thanks Mandelbrot!!!

I listened to the first hour (but now I have to go to bed) but it is clear that he sees 9/11 as a "precursor" and that the fourth turning has not yet begun yet. However he was calling the 2002 election "the first fourth turning election" a couple of years ago. It seems he has changed his mind. I can't blame him, the Phony Fourth could be argued from either way.

An aside: Whoever is hosting that show, though polite and friendly to Bill, is pretty clueless.

Isn't "Coast to Coast" a sort of "fringe show" that was formerly hosted by Art Bell - subject matter that dealt with alien abduction, bigfoot, chupakabra and communicating with the dead? I wonder, did Bill know that before going on?

WJB (or anyone) - Can you give me any idea or speculation why S&H do not post on here anymore? Is it because (as Devil's Advocate stated) that the site has become too liberal? I find that hard to believe. Judging by the archives, they checked in from time to time and were much more engaged. I don't take "being too busy" as a good excuse either - if the have time to go on Coast to Coast - they have time to at least contribute occasionally to the website they started. I wouldn't expect them to offer predictions like JJX, an occainsional "whassup everyone?" would be nice.

Perhaps they got turned off by all the bitter political posts.

Originally Posted by casewestwill

Isn't "Coast to Coast" a sort of "fringe show" that was formerly hosted by Art Bell - subject matter that dealt with alien abduction, bigfoot, chupakabra and communicating with the dead? I wonder, did Bill know that before going on?

According to my memory and the show's web site, this is at least the third time Bill's been on that show--once after 911, once early in 2003, and then last night. I'm sure he has a clue about what kind of show he's dealing with.

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

For anyone interested, William Strauss is scheduled to be interviewed tonight on Coast to Coast AM (Tuesday August 24), interview probably starting after 11:00 p.m. Pacific time.
A listing of affiliate stations can be found at www.coasttocoastam.com.

Thanks Mandelbrot!!!

I listened to the first hour (but now I have to go to bed) but it is clear that he sees 9/11 as a "precursor" and that the fourth turning has not yet begun yet. However he was calling the 2002 election "the first fourth turning election" a couple of years ago. It seems he has changed his mind. I can't blame him, the Phony Fourth could be argued from either way.

An aside: Whoever is hosting that show, though polite and friendly to Bill, is pretty clueless.

I heard Mr. Strauss last night, too, on KEX-1190 Portland. That was my take on him too...he said that he expects the 4T to occur roughly between 2005 and 2025, pretty much the same timeframe as he originally wrote in T4T. As such he obviously doesn't think it's started yet....although i wonder if he isn't simply covering his tail in case it turns out that way in the end. (I would!)

Originally Posted by casewestwill

WJB (or anyone) - Can you give me any idea or speculation why S&H do not post on here anymore? Is it because (as Devil's Advocate stated) that the site has become too liberal? I find that hard to believe.

As do I. Our esteemed authors strike me about as middle-of-the-road as, say, myself... IOW, either liberal or conservative depending on the issue and whether the left or right approach is either working, or seems prudent.

Originally Posted by casewestwill

Isn't "Coast to Coast" a sort of "fringe show" . . .

The host was a little weird, not to mention obsessive and self-referential. Bill handled him wonderfully.

Originally Posted by casewestwill

WJB (or anyone) - Can you give me any idea or speculation why S&H do not post on here anymore?

As Tim guesses, I think it is the bitter partisanship, coupled with them thinking that they've pretty much gleaned from here as much as they can, academically speaking. I imagine they keep the website going so new readers (or potential readers) can familiarize themselves witht the theory.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by casewestwill

WJB (or anyone) - Can you give me any idea or speculation why S&H do not post on here anymore? Is it because (as Devil's Advocate stated) that the site has become too liberal? I find that hard to believe.

As do I. Our esteemed authors strike me about as middle-of-the-road as, say, myself... IOW, either liberal or conservative depending on the issue and whether the left or right approach is either working, or seems prudent.

Agreed.

There has been some good theorietical stuff to appear with this site-the multi-modal saeculum, generational dynamics, that sort of thing-and even a bit of history. But academically the paleo 4T site was much more fruitful.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

I heard Mr. Strauss last night, too, on KEX-1190 Portland. That was my take on him too...he said that he expects the 4T to occur roughly between 2005 and 2025, pretty much the same timeframe as he originally wrote in T4T. As such he obviously doesn't think it's started yet....although i wonder if he isn't simply covering his tail in case it turns out that way in the end. (I would!)

I do not think Bill Strauss is covering his tail. In my e-mail's with Neil Howe, he has echoed the same observations as Bill Strauss does

Originally Posted by Tristan

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

I heard Mr. Strauss last night, too, on KEX-1190 Portland. That was my take on him too...he said that he expects the 4T to occur roughly between 2005 and 2025, pretty much the same timeframe as he originally wrote in T4T. As such he obviously doesn't think it's started yet....although i wonder if he isn't simply covering his tail in case it turns out that way in the end. (I would!)

I do not think Bill Strauss is covering his tail. In my e-mail's with Neil Howe, he has echoed the same observations as Bill Strauss does

I wasn't implying that there is anything wrong with covering one's tail. If, for example, S&H publically and vehemently called the Turning, and then something bigger/timelier than 911 occurred which catalyzed the Crisis later, the Authors would lose much credibility with both the general public and their readers.

So, it doesn't matter much to me whether they are CTT, whether they sincerely believe that We (still) Be 3T, or a mixture of both. I understand the position that they are in.

Hey folks,

I recall a satirical movie in the late 90's the name of which I am trying to remember, because it may become relevant.

It was set in the Oh-Oh's (Zeroes) decade and the United States had become much more divergent. For example, Rhode Island had become majority Chinese or Korean.

Fighting broke out between different military units as various civillian authorities clashed with one another over jurisdiction. An argument even broke out on air between anchors of a CNN-like broadcast.

For a time the nation seemed on the brink of Civil War, but things were pulled back before we went over the edge. It had some sort of bittersweet and inconclusive ending.

I found this movie to be amusing and frightening at the same time. Does anyone remember it's name? I think it was a made-for-cable movie but I'm by no means sure.

Sorry, Sean, but I don't remember that movie.

Today's events in southern Russia cause me to imagine what an "October surprise" in America might entail. The net effect of such terrorism would only raise our blood against it, and, in doing so, re-elect The Mumbler. Seattle talk radio, even among liberals, airs reactionary attitudes: "Either we annihilate them or they will get us sooner than later." "Obliteration is the only thing they understand." "Even their children live for the day they will blow themselves up in a crowd of Westerners."

America will eventually decide that obliteration may be one of the few options available. American scientific journals are already discussing the use of nuclear weapons. If terrorism of the kind Russian now suffers comes to our classrooms, I'd say a 4T Crisis would be ignited. And I worry that our reactionary politics will exacerbate said Crisis to historic proportions.

Marc, what would FDR have done with this scenario? Can't wait for you reply.

--Croaker

Originally Posted by Croakmore

Sorry, Sean, but I don't remember that movie.

Today's events in southern Russia cause me to imagine what an "October surprise" in America might entail. The net effect of such terrorism would only raise our blood against it, and, in doing so, re-elect The Mumbler. Seattle talk radio, even among liberals, airs reactionary attitudes: "Either we annihilate them or they will get us sooner than later." "Obliteration is the only thing they understand." "Even their children live for the day they will blow themselves up in a crowd of Westerners."

America will eventually decide that obliteration may be one of the few options available. American scientific journals are already discussing the use of nuclear weapons. If terrorism of the kind Russian now suffers comes to our classrooms, I'd say a 4T Crisis would be ignited. And I worry that our reactionary politics will exacerbate said Crisis to historic proportions.

Marc, what would FDR have done with this scenario? Can't wait for you reply.

--Croaker

It's only a matter of time before Russia's problems become ours.

They already are. Only the details of the terrorist attacks differ.

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Croakmore

Sorry, Sean, but I don't remember that movie.

Today's events in southern Russia cause me to imagine what an "October surprise" in America might entail. The net effect of such terrorism would only raise our blood against it, and, in doing so, re-elect The Mumbler. Seattle talk radio, even among liberals, airs reactionary attitudes: "Either we annihilate them or they will get us sooner than later." "Obliteration is the only thing they understand." "Even their children live for the day they will blow themselves up in a crowd of Westerners."

America will eventually decide that obliteration may be one of the few options available. American scientific journals are already discussing the use of nuclear weapons. If terrorism of the kind Russian now suffers comes to our classrooms, I'd say a 4T Crisis would be ignited. And I worry that our reactionary politics will exacerbate said Crisis to historic proportions.

Marc, what would FDR have done with this scenario? Can't wait for you reply.

--Croaker

It's only a matter of time before Russia's problems become ours.

The hostage crisis in Russia is precisely the scenario that occurred to me a couple of years ago as the most obvious "soft target" type of action that could occur over here.
Wiping out an elementary school, especially in a city which has multiple media outlets to carry the event into the nation's living rooms, would require only a few committed terrorists armed with firearms and explosives.
It would paralyze the nation for a few days as millions of parents refused to let their children out of their sight. I do think that the greater effect would be to plunge us straight into the fourth turning, total war, complete commitment, and zero tolerance of anyone arguing for a measured response.
I wonder if those who would plan and order such a thing have a huge misunderstanding of the United States. I definitely am not looking forward to the 4T, it seems more and more frightening to me as it gets closer.

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

I definitely am not looking forward to the 4T, it seems more and more frightening to me as it gets closer.

Regardless of whether or not it's here yet (I think it is), I feel like we're circling the drain at increasing speed, and at some point we're going to get sucked down it.

Al Quaida may know nothing of the turning/generational paradign. They may assume that our 3T behavior is a blueprint for the future.

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Croakmore

Sorry, Sean, but I don't remember that movie.

Today's events in southern Russia cause me to imagine what an "October surprise" in America might entail. The net effect of such terrorism would only raise our blood against it, and, in doing so, re-elect The Mumbler. Seattle talk radio, even among liberals, airs reactionary attitudes: "Either we annihilate them or they will get us sooner than later." "Obliteration is the only thing they understand." "Even their children live for the day they will blow themselves up in a crowd of Westerners."

America will eventually decide that obliteration may be one of the few options available. American scientific journals are already discussing the use of nuclear weapons. If terrorism of the kind Russian now suffers comes to our classrooms, I'd say a 4T Crisis would be ignited. And I worry that our reactionary politics will exacerbate said Crisis to historic proportions.

Marc, what would FDR have done with this scenario? Can't wait for you reply.

--Croaker

It's only a matter of time before Russia's problems become ours.

The hostage crisis in Russia is precisely the scenario that occurred to me a couple of years ago as the most obvious "soft target" type of action that could occur over here.
Wiping out an elementary school, especially in a city which has multiple media outlets to carry the event into the nation's living rooms, would require only a few committed terrorists armed with firearms and explosives.
It would paralyze the nation for a few days as millions of parents refused to let their children out of their sight. I do think that the greater effect would be to plunge us straight into the fourth turning, total war, complete commitment, and zero tolerance of anyone arguing for a measured response.
I wonder if those who would plan and order such a thing have a huge misunderstanding of the United States. I definitely am not looking forward to the 4T, it seems more and more frightening to me as it gets closer.

Agreed. That, coupled with female suicide bombers in crowded shopping mall food courts to also scare everyone away from shopping. Just two simultaneous attacks on each coast would probably damage the economy.

Originally Posted by Hamish MacPherson

Regardless of whether or not it's here yet (I think it is), I feel like we're circling the drain at increasing speed, and at some point we're going to get sucked down it.

That's a great analogy. I really like that.

Originally Posted by Tim Walker

Al Quaida may know nothing of the turning/generational paradign. They may assume that our 3T behavior is a blueprint for the future.

Originally Posted by mandelbrot5

I wonder if those who would plan and order such a thing have a huge misunderstanding of the United States. I definitely am not looking forward to the 4T, it seems more and more frightening to me as it gets closer.

People spoke of 9/11 waking up a "sleeping giant", just like what was said after Pearl Harbor. I think the giant just went from deep sleep to REM. Come the 4T, God knows what we'll be capable of, especially if they attack our kids.

If Osama wants Helter-Skelter, a civilization war, he'd likely get one that way.

This just in. Rush Limbaugh is reportedly dating some anchor from CNN.

So is this Carville-Matlin 3T? Or just a corporatist (corpulent?) merger?