Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Chris Seamans '75

[
If we're currently in a "phony" Crisis right now, the real Crisis will likely come so close on its heels that both will appear to be part of the same whole.

That is very possible.

Even likely. If G/T Theory had been presented in the 1920s, certainly the discussion forums of 1931 would have debated whether We Be 3T or 4T as well...it wasn't until '32-'33 that the 4T consensus would have been reached. As I've said before, most people on this forum seem to expect the current or coming 4T to break in a similar fashion and timetable to the last one. It doesn't have to. We could have 7 or 8 years (rather than 3-4)between the Catalyst and the Social Moment, and when we're obviously enroute to Hell In A Handbasket people will still look back to the Catalyst (such as 911) as when they started paving the Road.

Personal thought here,

I do not think the United States is yet in a 4T, although a 4T might start very soon (in the next 12 months) and the regenerancy will come around 2006-2008. The generational lineup is now about right for a 4T to start, the first wave Boomers will enter a elderhood mindset very soon.

Originally Posted by Tristan

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Chris Seamans '75

[
If we're currently in a "phony" Crisis right now, the real Crisis will likely come so close on its heels that both will appear to be part of the same whole.

That is very possible.

Even likely. If G/T Theory had been presented in the 1920s, certainly the discussion forums of 1931 would have debated whether We Be 3T or 4T as well...it wasn't until '32-'33 that the 4T consensus would have been reached. As I've said before, most people on this forum seem to expect the current or coming 4T to break in a similar fashion and timetable to the last one. It doesn't have to. We could have 7 or 8 years (rather than 3-4)between the Catalyst and the Social Moment, and when we're obviously enroute to Hell In A Handbasket people will still look back to the Catalyst (such as 911) as when they started paving the Road.

Personal thought here,

I do not think the United States is yet in a 4T, although a 4T might start very soon (in the next 12 months) and the regenerancy will come around 2006-2008. The generational lineup is now about right for a 4T to start, the first wave Boomers will enter a elderhood mindset very soon.

That's the part that's always been problemmatical to me. Boomers have always tried to be young, and we're spending vast sums to keep that going. Entering an elder mindset is simply anathema to most of us; we're going to live forever.

That makes the entire issue of timing much harder. We have shortening saecula and increasing vitality and longevity at the same time. I can't see a 5 tiered generational array, but fail to understand how a four tier one continues.

That was just an aside. Back to the business of discovering the future.

And this morning on the news: Baseball fans and players take to throwing chairs at each other during a game! Pictures of a woman with her face all bloodied from the athlete's chair!!

Not very 4T of them at all.

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

. . . A les teacher is talking about different kinds of intercourse a female couple can have, as part of a class discussion. 'two women can have vaginal intercourse, for instance they can use sex toys...'

Go on, go on . . . :wink:

Originally Posted by Tristan

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Chris Seamans '75

[
If we're currently in a "phony" Crisis right now, the real Crisis will likely come so close on its heels that both will appear to be part of the same whole.

That is very possible.

Even likely. If G/T Theory had been presented in the 1920s, certainly the discussion forums of 1931 would have debated whether We Be 3T or 4T as well...it wasn't until '32-'33 that the 4T consensus would have been reached. As I've said before, most people on this forum seem to expect the current or coming 4T to break in a similar fashion and timetable to the last one. It doesn't have to. We could have 7 or 8 years (rather than 3-4)between the Catalyst and the Social Moment, and when we're obviously enroute to Hell In A Handbasket people will still look back to the Catalyst (such as 911) as when they started paving the Road.

Personal thought here,

I do not think the United States is yet in a 4T, although a 4T might start very soon (in the next 12 months) and the regenerancy will come around 2006-2008. The generational lineup is now about right for a 4T to start, the first wave Boomers will enter a elderhood mindset very soon.

Yep. The constellation catalyst index is at zero this year whereas it was at -9 in 2001. It has always been at least -3 before any turning change.

'43 Boomers are 61
'61 Xers are 43
'82 Millies are 22

61-63= -2
43-42= +1
22-21= +1

-2+1+1=0

Admittedly it's a rough gauge, but it says we're ready.

Originally Posted by David '47 Redux

Originally Posted by Tristan

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Chris Seamans '75

[
If we're currently in a "phony" Crisis right now, the real Crisis will likely come so close on its heels that both will appear to be part of the same whole.

That is very possible.

Even likely. If G/T Theory had been presented in the 1920s, certainly the discussion forums of 1931 would have debated whether We Be 3T or 4T as well...it wasn't until '32-'33 that the 4T consensus would have been reached. As I've said before, most people on this forum seem to expect the current or coming 4T to break in a similar fashion and timetable to the last one. It doesn't have to. We could have 7 or 8 years (rather than 3-4)between the Catalyst and the Social Moment, and when we're obviously enroute to Hell In A Handbasket people will still look back to the Catalyst (such as 911) as when they started paving the Road.

Personal thought here,

I do not think the United States is yet in a 4T, although a 4T might start very soon (in the next 12 months) and the regenerancy will come around 2006-2008. The generational lineup is now about right for a 4T to start, the first wave Boomers will enter a elderhood mindset very soon.

That's the part that's always been problemmatical to me. Boomers have always tried to be young, and we're spending vast sums to keep that going. Entering an elder mindset is simply anathema to most of us; we're going to live forever.

That makes the entire issue of timing much harder. We have shortening saecula and increasing vitality and longevity at the same time. I can't see a 5 tiered generational array, but fail to understand how a four tier one continues.

That was just an aside. Back to the business of discovering the future.

David, I invite you to read about this topic in the "Multi-Modal Seaculum" thread. Though it is mostly dedicated to discussing pre-ninteenth century saecular dynamics, Tim Walker, myself, and others do talk about the future of the saeculum in light of what you brought up above. Please ignore the political interruptions brought on by Marc L. throughout the thread.

I muse that the age of social autonomy will eventually drop to the age of full physical maturity (which itself may drop some more this century). This could create life phases as short as 17 years. If significant numbers of people start living (and being productive) into what we know call "old old" age, we could see 5 to 7 phases. If we push past the 120 limit we now generally run up against we could stabilize at 8 phases. Five, six, and seven phases would be unstable and I think we could see the saeculum undulate wildly assuming the fundamental nature of four archetypes (which I do).

We almost saw the GI's have a major impact on the saeculum one turning past "normal". The Silent are not likely to be as much of a problem considering their relative timidity (e.g., no presidents), but Boomers living on to affect the next 1T could be the our first saecular (not secular) crisis since the Civil War Anomaly.

Isn't it entirely appropriate that what should have been a fun sexual experiment is hanged onto by these people until they are forty something moralists. Then it's just ich.

And by listening to the lady on the radio, I sincerely didn't want to hear her talk about her lover.

So my buddy was out on Cape Cod (P town) on accident the day the gay marriage thing went legal in MA. He said they were not lipstick lesbians at all, but rather were like your funny old aunt. 50 somethings holding hands happy to be legal finally.

Now that's great and all but surely does not drive my fantasies, and I sure do wonder how much of that the kiddies really need

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

... If significant numbers of people start living (and being productive) into what we know call "old old" age, we could see 5 to 7 phases. If we push past the 120 limit we now generally run up against we could stabilize at 8 phases. Five, six, and seven phases would be unstable and I think we could see the saeculum undulate wildly assuming the fundamental nature of four archetypes (which I do).

I don't see undulation; I see damping. When an 8-tiered generational array arrives, generational theory will depart. Think about it. Each succeeding Prophet and Hero generation is, by nature, strongly at odds with its predecessor. Allowing that the expanded array is filled with active gens, you get tension but little movement.

I see that as a perpetually uptight era ... unless they move the whole thing to a higher plane, of course.

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

If significant numbers of people start living (and being productive) into what we know call "old old" age, we could see 5 to 7 phases.

Greying Japan's centenarians total record 23,000. From the article: "The centenarian population... has grown by more than 10 percent every year for the past 12 years."

Combined with the huge interest in life extension among Boomers, and (my personal prediction) an increasing interest in Extropy among Xers, and I think we'll see the generational paradigm collapse with the next two decades.

Originally Posted by David '47 Redux

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

... If significant numbers of people start living (and being productive) into what we know call "old old" age, we could see 5 to 7 phases. If we push past the 120 limit we now generally run up against we could stabilize at 8 phases. Five, six, and seven phases would be unstable and I think we could see the saeculum undulate wildly assuming the fundamental nature of four archetypes (which I do).

I don't see undulation; I see damping. When an 8-tiered generational array arrives, generational theory will depart. Think about it. Each succeeding Prophet and Hero generation is, by nature, strongly at odds with its predecessor. Allowing that the expanded array is filled with active gens, you get tension but little movement.

I see that as a perpetually uptight era ... unless they move the whole thing to a higher plane, of course.

What you might see is open generational warfare. Imagine older people by the tens of thousands being "disappeared" never to be seen again? Or laws being passed, forcing people to report to their local euthanasia centers on their eightieth birthday? Or the reverse...great-grandparents poisoning their neighbors kids to save room for themselves and others their age? Scary thoughts.

Originally Posted by Tristan

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

Originally Posted by Chris Seamans '75

[
If we're currently in a "phony" Crisis right now, the real Crisis will likely come so close on its heels that both will appear to be part of the same whole.

That is very possible.

Even likely. If G/T Theory had been presented in the 1920s, certainly the discussion forums of 1931 would have debated whether We Be 3T or 4T as well...it wasn't until '32-'33 that the 4T consensus would have been reached. As I've said before, most people on this forum seem to expect the current or coming 4T to break in a similar fashion and timetable to the last one. It doesn't have to. We could have 7 or 8 years (rather than 3-4)between the Catalyst and the Social Moment, and when we're obviously enroute to Hell In A Handbasket people will still look back to the Catalyst (such as 911) as when they started paving the Road.

Personal thought here,

I do not think the United States is yet in a 4T, although a 4T might start very soon (in the next 12 months) and the regenerancy will come around 2006-2008. The generational lineup is now about right for a 4T to start, the first wave Boomers will enter a elderhood mindset very soon.

I'm not entirely sure...we're in a state of flux...whether we're 3T or 4T depends on how society looks back on this era from the future. If we're still 3T in the wake of 911, it appears likely that the real Catalyst will be the Great Devaluation, triggered by the collapse of the overheated housing market. Once the core Boomers start retiring between 2008 and 2011 there will be a glut of homes on the market...particularly in the most expensive areas with retirees looking to retire cheap... and few buyers who can afford the down payments at the expected sale prices.

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

I muse that the age of social autonomy will eventually drop to the age of full physical maturity (which itself may drop some more this century). This could create life phases as short as 17 years. If significant numbers of people start living (and being productive) into what we know call "old old" age, we could see 5 to 7 phases.

I don't see the connection here. As lifespans have become longer, the age of social autonomy has risen. People used to be regarded as adults at about the same time they became physically mature; now they have an extended adolesence before they are expected to assume adult roles. What do you think would have to happen for that trend to be reversed?

Originally Posted by Katie '85

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

I muse that the age of social autonomy will eventually drop to the age of full physical maturity (which itself may drop some more this century). This could create life phases as short as 17 years. If significant numbers of people start living (and being productive) into what we know call "old old" age, we could see 5 to 7 phases.

I don't see the connection here. As lifespans have become longer, the age of social autonomy has risen. People used to be regarded as adults at about the same time they became physically mature; now they have an extended adolesence before they are expected to assume adult roles. What do you think would have to happen for that trend to be reversed?

In premodern and early modern societies the age of full social maturity was 25-30. One major reason for this was the close-knit extended family. Three 15-25 year old brothers could live under the same roof as (or in close proximity to) their 45 year old patriarchial father. This greatly lessened their social autonomy even if two of them themselves already had wives and kids.

What has occurred over the past 2 to 3 centuries is ontogenic compaction. It has partly been physical as people in first world countries now physically/sexually mature a full three years earlier than 200 years ago due to better nutrition and such.

But it is also psycho-social, due to better education, the faster pace of societal change, and especially the nuclearization of the family.

All of these have brought the average age of social autonomy down from apx. 27 to more like 20. Since the Silent came of age there may have been a slight trending back upward, but variations have occurred before and the long term trend is clear.

Now if extended families come back into vogue, or some other unforseen phenomenon occurs, we could see a structural shift back upwards in age. In the meantime, I'd say the lowering is here to stay. And since the age of autonomy determines (according to Strauss & Howe) the length of life phases, we are probably looking at more than 4 phases as more people age past 80 and remain productive.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Originally Posted by David '47 Redux

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

... If significant numbers of people start living (and being productive) into what we know call "old old" age, we could see 5 to 7 phases. If we push past the 120 limit we now generally run up against we could stabilize at 8 phases. Five, six, and seven phases would be unstable and I think we could see the saeculum undulate wildly assuming the fundamental nature of four archetypes (which I do).

I don't see undulation; I see damping. When an 8-tiered generational array arrives, generational theory will depart. Think about it. Each succeeding Prophet and Hero generation is, by nature, strongly at odds with its predecessor. Allowing that the expanded array is filled with active gens, you get tension but little movement.

I see that as a perpetually uptight era ... unless they move the whole thing to a higher plane, of course.

What you might see is open generational warfare. Imagine older people by the tens of thousands being "disappeared" never to be seen again? Or laws being passed, forcing people to report to their local euthanasia centers on their eightieth birthday? Or the reverse...great-grandparents poisoning their neighbors kids to save room for themselves and others their age? Scary thoughts.

Unless we start procreating like rabbits or open the borders to all comers, the US, Canada and Australia, to say nothink of Russia, will have more land and natural assets than they'll need. The rest of Europe and China may be strained, but, using Japan as a model, modernity can do wonders with virtually nothing.

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

In premodern and early modern societies the age of full social maturity was 25-30. One major reason for this was the close-knit extended family. Three 15-25 year old brothers could live under the same roof as (or in close proximity to) their 45 year old patriarchial father. This greatly lessened their social autonomy even if two of them themselves already had wives and kids.

Yeah, but what about their sisters? On the one hand, their marriage and motherhood occurred much sooner than 30, since female fertility peaks in the early 20s. On the other hand, in these societies, they never had much autonomy. Whatcha think?

Originally Posted by Hermione Granger

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

In premodern and early modern societies the age of full social maturity was 25-30. One major reason for this was the close-knit extended family. Three 15-25 year old brothers could live under the same roof as (or in close proximity to) their 45 year old patriarchial father. This greatly lessened their social autonomy even if two of them themselves already had wives and kids.

Yeah, but what about their sisters? On the one hand, their marriage and motherhood occurred much sooner than 30, since female fertility peaks in the early 20s. On the other hand, in these societies, they never had much autonomy. Whatcha think?

Back in the day, the latter.

Seriously. I saw one of those "Freedom isn't free" ribbon car stickers the other day. It's like the guy was saying. Here take my civil liberties! Enjoy! When half or slightly more than half of the country is ready to elect a guy who wants to get rid of our civil liberties we may actually be 4T. Just because most of us haven't really been affected personally does not mean that we aren't 4T. I'd say the other half is fighting the 4T. We'll see how much that continues after E2004. Will the Dems enter the 4T by fighting the GOP outright, maybe even with violence, or will they go quietly into the night?

Originally Posted by Acton Ellis

Seriously. I saw one of those "Freedom isn't free" ribbon car stickers the other day. It's like the guy was saying. Here take my civil liberties! Enjoy! When half or slightly more than half of the country is ready to elect a guy who wants to get rid of our civil liberties we may actually be 4T. Just because most of us haven't really been affected personally does not mean that we aren't 4T. I'd say the other half is fighting the 4T. We'll see how much that continues after E2004. Will the Dems enter the 4T by fighting the GOP outright, maybe even with violence, or will they go quietly into the night?

I suspect that the REAL 4T will arrive with the realization that a large percentage of the population can't make ends meet. having tried taxwes as the boogie man, we (most of us, anyway) wil have to adimit we're the problem.

Then we'll be 4T. We'll also demand a REAL solution. See my .sig for the current PHONY solution.

An initial spark will trigger a chain reaction of unyielding responses and further emergencies. The core elements of these scenarios (debt, civic decay, global disorder) will matter more than the details.... p273

I am going through this again, and I have to say it is one hell of a piece of scholarship - even if you don't agree with it. But it seems likely to me. And "debt, civic decay, global disorder" are all underlined in red from last time I looked at it.

Is it a little bit possible that these three elements have increased over the last couple of years?

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

And "debt, civic decay, global disorder" are all underlined in red from last time I looked at it. Is it a little bit possible that these three elements have increased over the last couple of years?

One thing is for sure, if Kerry were to win, in November, almost overnight all these elements will mysteriously vanish. Suddenly the sky will become bluer, the birds will sing sweeter, and even criminals and terrorists will suddenly experience a strong desire to learn the words to Morning has broken!

Just you wait and see, it happens everytime a liberal wins.

• "Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."

:wink:

In fact, their second scenario here is downright creepy

A global terrorist group [yup] blows up an aircraft [yup, plus a couple of buildings] and announces it possesses portable nuclear weapons [don't we worry about this?]. the United States and its allies launch a preemptive strike [yup, and whoever is next]. The terrorists threaten to retaliate against an American city [we worry about this too]. Congress declares war and authorizes unlimited house to house searches [thank god the patriot act didn't go quite that far]. Opponents charge that the president concocted the emergency for political purposes [just google it]. A nationwide strike is declared [I don't know where they come up with that]. Foreign capital flees the US [what's all this talk of our robust economy?]"

I think about this stuff in a systems-theory sort of way. debt, civic decay, and global disorder are all things that a robust system could handle individually. But if the system is weak in all of those nodes, then it is not robust at all, and crisis in one will bring down the next.

Debt - consumer, government, and macro, with little bubbles being discussed, and muni and state gov'ts already almost broke.

Civic decay - We've got Texas fundies trying to get abstinance only sex ed while we got p-town lesbians trying to get lesbian vaginal intercourse using sex toys institutionalized into the sex ed. We've got baseball players thrwoing chairs at fans, who were probably equally obnoxious. We have a reds and blues culture division which has settled in and ossified.

Global disorder - Global fundies are sick of the west and its empire. 911, nightclubs, beheadings, and for fuck's sake - A GRADESCHOOL. We've got Israel and Palastine going nuts on each other, the mess in the Sudan, and what looks to be a real resource shortage with key global players involved.

Perception is most important here, and things look nuts. And they are going to look nuts to regular citizens when the structural problems start to resonate through the (not very robust) system.

Things seem fairly well poised, but maybe they have to get even more dangerously leveraged and even more dangerously not-robust for the structural shakes and the public perception wobbles to oscillate together.

Who knows? Anybody want to talk about Vietnam.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Just you wait and see, it happens everytime a liberal wins.

• "Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."

:wink:

I know you're being a sarcastic bushlicker (see and again, that's just not a putdown in my book - Bushlicker maybe) and all, but isn't that exactly why this election doesn't matter?

I don't like Bush, nor do I like what he's done, but I cannot fathom why it matters one whit if Kerry is elected.

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Just you wait and see, it happens everytime a liberal wins.

• "Winning isn't everything, it's the only thing."

:wink:

I know you're being a sarcastic bushlicker (see and again, that's just not a putdown in my book - Bushlicker maybe) and all, but isn't that exactly why this election doesn't matter?

I don't like Bush, nor do I like what he's done, but I cannot fathom why it matters one whit if Kerry is elected.

I wasn't being "sarcastic" at all. Granted, Kerry waffles so much he doesn't inspire much liberal cheer, but still... he ain't the Prince of Darkness, Dubya!

But, all that's mute, of course. God's, "I voted for the $87 million before I voted against it," decisive-challenged angel is gonna get his clock cleaned this November. So the skies will be gray, and darkening, the birds will have to wait for spring, and we will go on making the criminals and terrorists mad at us by stickin' it to 'em!

Amen, my, brother, Gib! Oops, sorry, I got carried away. sieg heil, i guess. :wink:

p.s. So, do you resemble that pic in your avatar? Nice hat, btw.

Originally Posted by Hermione Granger

Originally Posted by William Jennings Bryan

In premodern and early modern societies the age of full social maturity was 25-30. One major reason for this was the close-knit extended family. Three 15-25 year old brothers could live under the same roof as (or in close proximity to) their 45 year old patriarchial father. This greatly lessened their social autonomy even if two of them themselves already had wives and kids.

Yeah, but what about their sisters? On the one hand, their marriage and motherhood occurred much sooner than 30, since female fertility peaks in the early 20s. On the other hand, in these societies, they never had much autonomy. Whatcha think?

I guess I was thinking more of women, too. Their adulthood (such as it was) usually began in their teens.

Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)

I don't like Bush, nor do I like what he's done, but I cannot fathom why it matters one whit if Kerry is elected.

It matters because when the Great Devaluation comes in the next year or so, I want to have a President who has a passing acquaintance with concepts like planning, execution, follow-through, coordination, and risk management -- and also concepts like courage, determination, responsibility and commitment. Dubya has none of those.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

I wasn't being "sarcastic" at all. Granted, Kerry waffles so much he doesn't inspire much liberal cheer, but still... he ain't the Prince of Darkness, Dubya!

Sorry to disappoint you, but the supposed "waffling" doesn't much bother me. Out here in the real world, we sometimes call this behavior "thinking."

We "liberals" (which is apparently defined as "everybody who sees Bush for what he really is", and thus includes about 90% of the world's population) aren't much cheered by Kerry because he seems so loath to call Bush a spineless, heartless, lying, sniveling coward to his face. (Not to mention alcoholic, cokehead, closet queen, ... I could go on and on...)

Now, as for "Prince Of Darkness", that title is reserved for the former CEO and honorary chairman of Halliburton, the architect of Gulf War II, and the current President of the United States: Richard "Go Cheney Yourself" Voldemort.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

But, all that's mute, of course.

That's "moot", of course. "Mute" -- if only.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

God's, "I voted for the $87 million before I voted against it," decisive-challenged angel is gonna get his clock cleaned this November.

Again, if only. It's going to be close enough that BushCo will be able to steal another election, and we're going to spend another four years just like this, at least until Bush is impeached.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

So the skies will be gray, and darkening, the birds will have to wait for spring

As I said, the skies will be gray and darkening either way. It's just that Kerry will remember to bring an umbrella.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

and we will go on making the criminals and terrorists mad at us by stickin' it to 'em!

Assuming you define "stickin' it to 'em" as ignoring their threats, supporting and protecting their state sponsors, and aiding their recruitment, I guess you're right about "stickin' it to the terrorists". Well, you're right about the "making them mad at us" anyway.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Oops, sorry, I got carried away. sieg heil, i guess.

Hey, if the shirt fits, wear it. I hear that brown is the new tan.