Originally Posted by Shemsu Heru

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Does anyone here really think that the 30's can repeat themselves? While the cycles of history described in T4T suggest they can, I still believe that American society is in too cocky a mood to believe it can. The assumption today is that there are too many safeguards incorporated into our economic system. Any thoughts on this? I know that many on this forum are speculating that this 4T will feature The Great Devaluation in lieu of last 4T's Great Depression.

I think it can happen, and probably will. As was true in the 1920s and 1930s, "the economy is fundamentally unsound." In fact, I would argue that it is even MORE unsound today since our economy is held up by foreign corporations. Most nations are very jittery about the dollar, and many fear a panic on the dollar.

I think that this time around, the reaction will not be the same. It never is totally the same during the next Crisis era as was the previous. And if history holds true, if an issue during a Crisis was not totally solved, it WILL return the next one, and the reaction will be even more severe.

For instance, compare the Glorious Revolution to the American Revolution. Both Crises were mainly rebellions against the British Crown in the colonies. In the case of the Glorious Revolution, the end result was a series of destructive riots between 1689 and 1692 which eventually restored British rule over the colonies under a new monarchy. In the case of the American Revolution, the end result was total war against the British Crown.

The American Revolution banned slavery north of the Mason-Dixon line, but not in the south. The reaction against slavery in the Civil War was much more severe.

As was stated in T4T, the main enemy of the 1960s movements was "corporate liberalism." I think corporate liberalism will be the main enemy of the coming Crisis. The underlying issues of the Great Depression were never resolved, and the main reason is because of the war. The war ended the Depression, but only because of military spending. The economy is very flawed right now. If you want to know what I think is coming, just look at the history of Argentina for this decade. I doubt that Millennials will patiently endure a Depression the same way the GIs did (even though S&H claim they will).

Great analysis, and a little too likely for comfort. :shock:

Originally Posted by Shemsu Heru

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Does anyone here really think that the 30's can repeat themselves? While the cycles of history described in T4T suggest they can, I still believe that American society is in too cocky a mood to believe it can. The assumption today is that there are too many safeguards incorporated into our economic system. Any thoughts on this? I know that many on this forum are speculating that this 4T will feature The Great Devaluation in lieu of last 4T's Great Depression.

I think it can happen, and probably will. As was true in the 1920s and 1930s, "the economy is fundamentally unsound." In fact, I would argue that it is even MORE unsound today since our economy is held up by foreign corporations. Most nations are very jittery about the dollar, and many fear a panic on the dollar.

I think that this time around, the reaction will not be the same. It never is totally the same during the next Crisis era as was the previous. And if history holds true, if an issue during a Crisis was not totally solved, it WILL return the next one, and the reaction will be even more severe.

For instance, compare the Glorious Revolution to the American Revolution. Both Crises were mainly rebellions against the British Crown in the colonies. In the case of the Glorious Revolution, the end result was a series of destructive riots between 1689 and 1692 which eventually restored British rule over the colonies under a new monarchy. In the case of the American Revolution, the end result was total war against the British Crown.

The American Revolution banned slavery north of the Mason-Dixon line, but not in the south. The reaction against slavery in the Civil War was much more severe.

As was stated in T4T, the main enemy of the 1960s movements was "corporate liberalism." I think corporate liberalism will be the main enemy of the coming Crisis. The underlying issues of the Great Depression were never resolved, and the main reason is because of the war. The war ended the Depression, but only because of military spending. The economy is very flawed right now. If you want to know what I think is coming, just look at the history of Argentina for this decade. I doubt that Millennials will patiently endure a Depression the same way the GIs did (even though S&H claim they will).

Great analysis, and a little too likely for comfort. :shock:

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Does anyone here really think that the 30's can repeat themselves? While the cycles of history described in T4T suggest they can, I still believe that American society is in too cocky a mood to believe it can. The assumption today is that there are too many safeguards incorporated into our economic system. Any thoughts on this? I know that many on this forum are speculating that this 4T will feature The Great Devaluation in lieu of last 4T's Great Depression.

I'm with you, Brian, there will not be another Great Depression. We'll avoid one thanks to safeguards, lessons learned from the last cycle; though there will be shocks to the system. I think the dollar will certainly decline and the euro will rise as an alternate reserve currency, and we'll see more and more competition from foreign firms and labor - but none of this should be seen as the End of the American Dream. An eclipse of American hegemony? Perhaps, but that could just mean a 4T conclusion where a huge portion of the human race is prospering like never before which strikes me as a very, very happy ending. The "Great Devaluation" could just mean sharing the pie a little more with the rest of the planet. They're hungry, too.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Does anyone here really think that the 30's can repeat themselves? While the cycles of history described in T4T suggest they can, I still believe that American society is in too cocky a mood to believe it can. The assumption today is that there are too many safeguards incorporated into our economic system. Any thoughts on this? I know that many on this forum are speculating that this 4T will feature The Great Devaluation in lieu of last 4T's Great Depression.

I'm with you, Brian, there will not be another Great Depression. We'll avoid one thanks to safeguards, lessons learned from the last cycle; though there will be shocks to the system. I think the dollar will certainly decline and the euro will rise as an alternate reserve currency, and we'll see more and more competition from foreign firms and labor - but none of this should be seen as the End of the American Dream. An eclipse of American hegemony? Perhaps, but that could just mean a 4T conclusion where a huge portion of the human race is prospering like never before which strikes me as a very, very happy ending. The "Great Devaluation" could just mean sharing the pie a little more with the rest of the planet. They're hungry, too.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

I'm with you, Brian, there will not be another Great Depression. We'll avoid one thanks to safeguards, lessons learned from the last cycle; though there will be shocks to the system.

Unfortunately we've used those safeguards (e.g., fiscal & monetary stimulus) to the hilt without a depression so that they are now among the fundamentals causing a crisis. So sure, we may not have a repeat of the 30's, per se, but an economic calamity of some kind is almost assured.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

I'm with you, Brian, there will not be another Great Depression. We'll avoid one thanks to safeguards, lessons learned from the last cycle; though there will be shocks to the system.

Unfortunately we've used those safeguards (e.g., fiscal & monetary stimulus) to the hilt without a depression so that they are now among the fundamentals causing a crisis. So sure, we may not have a repeat of the 30's, per se, but an economic calamity of some kind is almost assured.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

but none of this should be seen as the End of the American Dream.

Actually, I honestly believe that one of the major issues of the coming 4T will be the question of whether the United States as a political unit, and the American people as a nationality, have any right to exist - with much of the world's answer to that question being a resounding NO!!!!!, including some people right here in this country.

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

but none of this should be seen as the End of the American Dream.

Actually, I honestly believe that one of the major issues of the coming 4T will be the question of whether the United States as a political unit, and the American people as a nationality, have any right to exist - with much of the world's answer to that question being a resounding NO!!!!!, including some people right here in this country.

Dubya as a BubbleBoy

In a sense, our president's world has increasingly been filled with nothing
but James Guckert clones. Guckert is, of course, the "journalist" who, using
the alias Jeff Gannon, regularly attended presidential news conferences and
lobbed softball questions George's way. The Gannon case, or "Gannongate," has
? are you surprised? ? hardly been touched on by most of the mainstream media despite its lurid trail
leading to Internet porn sites and a seamy underside of gay culture ? issues
that normally would glue eyes to TV sets and sell gazillions of papers (and
that in the Clinton era would have rocked the administration). On the other
hand, it did cause an uproar in the world of the political Internet, where,
if we were to be honest ? and stop claiming to be shocked, shocked ? we would
quickly admit that almost all of George's world has essentially filled up with
Gannons (though not necessarily with the porn connections).

Dubya as a BubbleBoy

In a sense, our president's world has increasingly been filled with nothing
but James Guckert clones. Guckert is, of course, the "journalist" who, using
the alias Jeff Gannon, regularly attended presidential news conferences and
lobbed softball questions George's way. The Gannon case, or "Gannongate," has
? are you surprised? ? hardly been touched on by most of the mainstream media despite its lurid trail
leading to Internet porn sites and a seamy underside of gay culture ? issues
that normally would glue eyes to TV sets and sell gazillions of papers (and
that in the Clinton era would have rocked the administration). On the other
hand, it did cause an uproar in the world of the political Internet, where,
if we were to be honest ? and stop claiming to be shocked, shocked ? we would
quickly admit that almost all of George's world has essentially filled up with
Gannons (though not necessarily with the porn connections).

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

Originally Posted by scott 63

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

And they cited international law. How great is that!
Put that in your pasta fagioli and eat it, Scalia!

Originally Posted by scott 63

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

And they cited international law. How great is that!
Put that in your pasta fagioli and eat it, Scalia!

Originally Posted by scott 63

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

Whatever. I'm just thrilled that they did it at all.

Originally Posted by scott 63

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

Whatever. I'm just thrilled that they did it at all.

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

Originally Posted by scott 63

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

Whatever. I'm just thrilled that they did it at all.

I'm with you on that.

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

Originally Posted by scott 63

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Yes, but they did it on a 5-4 vote.

Whatever. I'm just thrilled that they did it at all.

I'm with you on that.

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Good!!!!

Originally Posted by Kiff 1961

I'm not sure if this is a sign of 4T or not, but the Supreme Court has just ended the death penalty for minors.

Good!!!!

Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

but none of this should be seen as the End of the American Dream.

Actually, I honestly believe that one of the major issues of the coming 4T will be the question of whether the United States as a political unit, and the American people as a nationality, have any right to exist - with much of the world's answer to that question being a resounding NO!!!!!, including some people right here in this country.

That sounds like a difficult crisis to overcome. Think we can do it?

Originally Posted by Harv

Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus

Originally Posted by Steve Barrera

but none of this should be seen as the End of the American Dream.

Actually, I honestly believe that one of the major issues of the coming 4T will be the question of whether the United States as a political unit, and the American people as a nationality, have any right to exist - with much of the world's answer to that question being a resounding NO!!!!!, including some people right here in this country.

That sounds like a difficult crisis to overcome. Think we can do it?

I doubt whether there but a few thousand (probably suicidal) people in this country who truly believe that Americans don't have a right to exist. I can very easily see, however, a large fraction of the populace who would gladly say "adios" to another large fraction.

Eastern Washingtonians, for example, are stirring the pot again regarding the issue of secession from "those liberals west of the Cascades". This time around, the 206- and 360-ers are saying "you know what? You're right! Get lost, assholes! Who needs you? See how long YOU people last without the Port of Seattle". It's not even strictly a Democrat vs. Republican thing....but a regional identity issue.

On a National level, I can easily envision a fracturing of America along Nine-Nations lines fifteen or twenty years out, forming a loose confederation for the purposes of continental defense only. The most obvious case, Dixie, has wanted to be its own country for the last 150 years...by the end of the Fourth Turning, I doubt whether the folks in New York City and Boston will care to stand in their way. They'll have too much to gain from being free of the Reds.

Redrawing state lines & loosening the federal union...this would be somewhat similar to the USA during the early 19th century.