No, Barak Obama is an African-American from Illinois who now holds a seat in the Senate for the Democrats in Washington D.C. Not only is his race remarkable in the terms of the Senate but his age as well, being rather young compared to the norm.Originally Posted by spudzill
Right-Wing liberal, slow progressive, and other contradictions straddling both the past and future, but out of touch with the present . . .
"We also know there are known unknowns.
That is to say, we know there are some things we do not know." - Donald Rumsfeld
Thanx Andy. I live in Cali and hadn't heard the name before
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. Hunter S. Thompson
Something else that can be said about Hillary: I can't help but wondering if the (by then) over 15 years of non-stop Hillary-bashing and demonization might end up having the (no doubt unintended) effect of telling the American people that she's the only GC who can save our collective bacon from an otherwise inevitable deep-frying - if anyone can, that is.
Still, if the base is so angry and fired up by then as to demand the imposition of said agenda (on either side), then failure to do so could be interpreted as 'crossing the line'. Let us hope that the Hillary Rodham Clinton presidency you describe would have the effect of marginalizing both extremes. If not,... :shock:
He was born in 1961, which makes him a first-wave Xer. H was a keynote speaker at the Democratic convention last summer and electrified the crowd. He was running for the empty Senate seat in Illinois and won handily in November.No, Barak Obama is an African-American from Illinois who now holds a seat in the Senate for the Democrats in Washington D.C. Not only is his race remarkable in the terms of the Senate but his age as well, being rather young compared to the norm.
His father is Nigerian and his mother is Caucasian, so he is property bi racial. He spent part of his childhood in Hawaii, which is a veritable racial/ethnic melting pot (or stew, or quilt, or mosaic -- pick your metaphor.)
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
I prefer stew. quilts are hard to eat.
When the going gets weird, the weird turn pro. Hunter S. Thompson
Crisis start date prediction
I am begining to think that the Fourth Turning will not come until around 2008, that is when the oldest Boomers are 65. Also the last three tunrings have occured about 80 years after the start of same turning in the previous saeculum.
American High started in 1946, 78-81years after the start of the Gilded High (1865 or 1868).
Consciousness Revolution Awakening started in 1964, 78 years after the start of the Missionary awakening.
Culture Wars unravelling started in 1984, 76 years after the start of the World War I & Prohibition Unravelling.
A couple of finishing thoughts.
Although the Boomers are a Idealist generation who would like the start an Fourth Turning now, however they are still restrained by the Silent Generation. By 2008 the last restraints will be pretty much gone.
If the Unraveling drags on into 2008, The Republicans have a good chance of getting a veto proof majority in the Senate, there will be a Boomer conservative majority on the Supreme Court that could spell a lot of trouble in the Fourth Turning. Also any competent Republican candidate has a good chance of elected in 2008. Electorates during unraveling?s are very mistrustful of the government?s capacity to solve problems and regard the smaller the government, the better.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
We have an interesting spread here. We have one side Mike A. saying the 4T was triggered with the Nasdaq crash and John X. saying it was with 9/11, and then we have you saying 2008 and Steve B. pushing for then if not later (2008-2010, I believe).
I am in the "we be 3T" crowd but in the "anytime now" subcategory.
Tristan, I don't think you can go by previous saecular length, esp. the further back you go, due to generational compaction. Generations, and turnings, are shorter now than they were over the past centuries. If you do go by more recent lengths, the 76 years between 1929 and 2005 is perfectly reasonable.
I think that A) the age of net-social-autonomy in our society is about 20 years of age (in terms of saecular function, even possibly 0.5-2 years less) currently, as opposed to 25-30 in premodernity, making generations and turnings, by definition, about 20 years in length now, on average.
B) With a subsequent 20, 40, 60 permutation for phase of life transitions and with lead cohorts this year going at 62, 44, 23 (1943, 1961, 1982) one could conclude that we have spill over readily begining to the each next respective phase. If the pre-autonomy length is less than 20, then the current spill over is even greater.
This means the 3T mood, which was supported by the dynamic created in the previous spill-over (aka "turning") is growing more and more strained and dysfunctional. We are ready for a trigger to snap a new mood into place. This new mood will have little room for spending like there is no tomorrow or half-assed military actions or whether Diane Diamond secretly masterbates over Michael Jackson.
That's my take anyway, FWIW.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
I've got to agree. There's just no way what we have now is a 4T. The mood shift after 9/11 was temporary, just like it was during World War I.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
And with all that has happened since, imagine what we're probably in store for! :shock:I've got to agree. There's just no way what we have now is a 4T. The mood shift after 9/11 was temporary, just like it was during World War I.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
Me too. I would have staked my life on 4T right after 911....now, with the going-nowhere Gulf War 2, no new terrorist attacks and the ever-escalating housing market... it feels like the last gasp of 3T. And the farther we get from 911, the less likely it becomes that when the shit hits the fan, people will look back at the WTC/Pentagon attacks as "when everything started going to hell".I've got to agree. There's just no way what we have now is a 4T. The mood shift after 9/11 was temporary, just like it was during World War I.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
Look at the bright side. If the 3T runs 24 years or more, essentially making up in spades for a too-short previous 4T and 1T, we'll be assured of an orderly world for quite along time run by Millennials, the largest Hero generation in recent history (1982-2005).
I would agree mostly with that 3T sentiment. But we are on the cusp. We are standing on the edge of the proverbial cliff, bending over the edge and peering into the abyss. All it will take now is one good kick to the behind and we'll be falling head over heels into it.We have an interesting spread here. We have one side Mike A. saying the 4T was triggered with the Nasdaq crash and John X. saying it was with 9/11, and then we have you saying 2008 and Steve B. pushing for then if not later (2008-2010, I believe).
I am in the "we be 3T" crowd but in the "anytime now" subcategory.
I'm fairly certain we'll have crossed over by the end of the Bush Presidency. It all depends on so many things- how long the economy can sustain itself, the geopolitical situation, and whether we experience any culture war flashpoints worse than Terri Schaivo (Some folks were already getting violent over her situation, taking out hits on the husband, judges, etc.).
I thought for a time after the 2004 election that 2004 itself was an early catalyst. There is still a case for it; compared to the graveness with which both sides approach the political situation post-election, the antics leading up to November 2004 seem positively trivial and 3T.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
That is only as long as the GI Generation.
Just what do people expect a 4T to bring? Does it make any sense at all that our obviously very fractious nation is going to suddenly forget the culture wars and join together to work on common problems?We have an interesting spread here. We have one side Mike A. saying the 4T was triggered with the Nasdaq crash and John X. saying it was with 9/11, and then we have you saying 2008 and Steve B. pushing for then if not later (2008-2010, I believe).
We have plenty of problems. Take global warming. One side says this is equivalent to a life and death issue that we must all join together and solve. The other side says it doesn't exist. Take the culture of death. One side says this is literally a life and death situation (in the future, people are going to euthanized en masse when they are not longer wanted by society) and the other says its a private matter and none of our (public) concern. I could go down the list, none of us is ever going to agree on what is and what is not a problem. This disagreement in itself is a crisis issue.
Inch by inch we sink into the quicksand, but since our progress is slow, its still a 3T. Suppose it never speeds up, we just get used to it? When that happens, when we learn to live with a new, more austere life, why then we have entered the austerity period, what 1T's are called in countries that simply muddled through their 4T. The term High, with its positive connotations, is what is experienced by rising nations who successfully deal with the issues of the 4T . This is what makes them rising nations. Those who muddle through have Austerity periods (which is what makes them in decline).
Look at what happened to the UK in their hegemonic crisis in the mid-19th century. They remained a financial power, but the next round of the industrial revolution happened in Germany and America, not in Britain. As a result Britain was replaced by America as the de facto hegemon in WW I.
The Americans did not act the role of hegemon, leaving it to a too-weak Britain. As a result American was hit harder by the next crisis trigger than Britain although the ultimate result of the Crisis was the collapse of the British Empire. The US did a good job of handling the last 4T and part of the next round of industrialization (the information economy) did roll out first in the US. We are having a lot more problems with another part (new energy economy), preferring to employ our hegemonic power to keep the old oil economy going. As is always the case, decline occurs when the nation uses its power to maintain the status of existing elites, rather than allow new ones to emerge. This is what we seem to be doing, "muddling through".
Look at the fate of Spain in their hegemonic Armada crisis: spectacular collapse after the subsequent Awakening. How "High" was the 1594-1621 period for them? They got nine years of peace after 1609, compared to the decades Britain enjoyed after 1603. They saw their Portuguese possessions systematically swallowed by the Dutch juggernaut.
How did the Dutch fare after their hegemonic crisis (the Glorious Revolution). They remained a financal power, but the Industrial Revolution happened in Britain, the new hegemon, not the Netherlands, gaving Britain a new round of hegemony that the Dutch didn't get.
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Our government could raise taxes now to slash the deficit and force foreign central banks to buy private debt. Our government could pull out of Iraq now, rather than wait until foreign central banks force us out at some later date. Our government could stop talking about Social Security, which isn't much of a problem, and start talking about Medicare, which is. But none of this is likley to happen, not because "we be 3T" but because WE BE 4T and whether or not to muddle through is what the crisis is about.
911 was our Sepoy Mutiny or the equivalent of the Boston Tea Party on the British. Like these, it is fundamentally an imperial issue. It's just that modern terrorists can strike at the homeland as well as in the provinces.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
I'm already on that page. It's called 'The Destruction of America'.And with all that has happened since, imagine what we're probably in store for! :shock:I've got to agree. There's just no way what we have now is a 4T. The mood shift after 9/11 was temporary, just like it was during World War I.
Agreed on all counts.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Re: Crisis start date prediction
Yes, we know.I'm already on that page. It's called 'The Destruction of America'.And with all that has happened since, imagine what we're probably in store for! :shock:I've got to agree. There's just no way what we have now is a 4T. The mood shift after 9/11 was temporary, just like it was during World War I.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Hmmm... Are we talking about a 4T here or are we talking about the Crisis? During the last saeculum America shifted into a 4T when Wall Street collapsed in 1929, but the Crisis didn't come until 1939-1941 when Hitler invaded Poland and Japan attacked Pearl Hbr. So, I think we're in a 4T, awaiting the shock of the coming Crisis. And I, too, think it is close at hand. You can almost see everybody maneuvering their plastic stairs for a grander view from the deck of this Good Ship Lollipop.
--Croakmore
Mike, as you know, I think you make a very good case. For all we know, "cascades" are not necessary, and perhaps turnings are not always as archetypal (not in the generationaly meaing, BTW) as S&H would suggest. I refuse to dismiss your analysis.
All I am saying is that I just personally feel that it is somewhat more likely, given my observations of both current circumstances, and our own (Anglo)-American saecular line, that this 3T/4T transition will be "tectonic" in nature, if you will. That is, the "catalyst phase" will resemble the cascading institutional failures ("institutional" in broader sense of "exterior world" framework of the previous several decades) we saw in 1929-33, 1859-61, 1773-76, and 1675-77.
Can I be sure? Of course not. You could be right that the vagaries of fate and/or our hegemonic status could override what has up-to-now been typical for us. Maybe the Nasdaq crash did inaugurate the 4T, and that it has been slowly working it's way into our lives ever since (in a secondary sense I already agree with this).
But you asked what we expect. I expect a world of poop to plop on top of us over the course of 12-36 months after a true trigger occurs. I expect the 3T mood of half-baked war, acceptance of high illegal immigration, real estate hysteria, historically high P/E ratios, Wacko Jacko trials, Jackass episodes, libertarian tax cuts, and the rest of the circus to generally end, delineating a profound shift away from this overall mindset in a relatively short period of time (again, about 1-3 years).
I don't see the Nasdaq Crash, E2K, or even 9/11 as having accomplished this. I rather see them as the boundary between the core 3T and it's last highly "jittery" phase. Of course, what I see as the 3T's last phase could be the beginning of the soft transition you see. Who knows?
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
Mr. E,
To my understanding, S&H see "4T" and "Crisis" (or "Secular Crisis") as synonymous. I think what you are calling the "crisis" in the exact context above is perhaps assoicated with the climax of the crisis.
Some here interpret things such that the 4T is divided such that the opening to the 4T is one phase and the rest, beginning with the Regeneracy, is the "Social Moment". I personally just see this as a mix up of terms and concepts between Generations and T4T, but mine is not the commonly accepted idea here on that. But then again, that's not what you're talking about.
BTW, I am asking anyone to clear up my understanding, or misunderstanding, of the whole "social moment" thing, if they wish.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.
The definitions are muddier in "generations", where there is a distinction between the "crisis" and a broader "crisis" era. This might be what The Frogman is referring to.Mr. E,
To my understanding, S&H see "4T" and "Crisis" (or "Secular Crisis") as synonymous. I think what you are calling the "crisis" in the exact context above is perhaps assoicated with the climax of the crisis.
Some here interpret things such that the 4T is divided such that the opening to the 4T is one phase and the rest, beginning with the Regeneracy, is the "Social Moment". I personally just see this as a mix up of terms and concepts between Generations and T4T, but mine is not the commonly accepted idea here on that. But then again, that's not what you're talking about.
BTW, I am asking anyone to clear up my understanding, or misunderstanding, of the whole "social moment" thing, if they wish.
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008
I have occasionally seen references to the year 2012 as the Crisis year, or call it a Climax year, if that distiunction is necessary, but either way it seems to resemble the last seaculum: Wall Street collapse in '29 = WTC collapse in '01; WWII outbreak in '41 = ??? Crisis in '12.
To me this suggests that 2001 was an incipient 4T portal.
Whatever turning it is, my friends are marrying like Mormons. The years 2005 and 2006 will mark the start of many a blessed union. I also see many babies in my Xer stronghold town on the Hudson. I see people that look 26 with babies. That makes me feel trendy; which is nice.
The "culture of death" in now in full swing. It appears that not even a "living will" can stop the trains headed to the twenty-first century version of Bergen-Belsen.
You watch the History channel too much.
