Generational Dynamics
Fourth Turning Forum Archive


Popular links:
Generational Dynamics Web Site
Generational Dynamics Forum
Fourth Turning Archive home page
New Fourth Turning Forum

Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 400







Post#9976 at 07-07-2005 11:32 AM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
---
07-07-2005, 11:32 AM #9976
Join Date
Apr 2005
Location
St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us)
Posts
5,439

Quote Originally Posted by mgibbons19 (71)
I am starting to really feel 4t vibes. There's a lot going on, including oil upping 62/bl, wholesale gasoline hitting a new high, the NYSE losing 100pts, more terrorist attacks, china looking at unocal and the semiconductor deal.

How much longer before joe sixpack starts to feel like his own well being is on the line?
Loss of incomes, houses won't sell, and gas at $6.00/gal...







Post#9977 at 07-07-2005 11:58 AM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
---
07-07-2005, 11:58 AM #9977
Join Date
Sep 2003
Location
I'm in the Big City now, boy!
Posts
1,655

Well, that's why I said "starts to."

Here they just mobilized another unit of pudgy dads to Iraq. Our town now officially has the highest mobilization since WW2. One of those guys turns on the news this morning, and he's going to feel fairly 4t.







Post#9978 at 07-09-2005 10:54 AM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
---
07-09-2005, 10:54 AM #9978
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Kalamazoo MI
Posts
4,502

In August 2000 I proposed an alignment between the K-cycle and the saeculum in which Kondratiev "seasons" correspond to saecular seasons.

K-winter (1929-1946/9) --> 4T (1929-1946)
K-spring (1946/9-1966) --> 1T (1929-1964)
K-summer (1966-1981/2) --> 2T (1964-1984)
K-fall (1981/2-2000/1) --> 3T (1984-????)

K-cycle seasons are determined from three things, interest rates, stimulation-adjusted prices and stock market movements. Prior to the Depression when the US was on a gold standard, no price adjustment for stimulation was necessary and raw prices could be used. Since the Depression, one has to remove the impact of stimulation to obtain a reduced price. Once this is done, both interest rates and adjusted price give the same dates for the 1946 K-trough (winter-->spring transition) and for the 1981 K-peak (summer--fall transition). The stock market gives slightly different dates for these: 1949 and 1982, respectively. These different values are represented as dates like 1946/9 to reflect the two different approaches.


For the spring-->summer transition there is no price/interest rate indicator--just the stock one. Back in August 2000 I forecast if the 2000 stock market peak then forming (the peak on a monthly average basis was in that exact month) turned out to the THE top (as I had forecast it would in my book Stock Cycles) then that would provide the stock-based assessment for the start of winter, just as the market peak in Jan 1966 provided the stock-based assessment for the start of summer.

There is a price-based indicator for the fall-->winter transition. It is subtle thing referred to as the "fall from plateau". First noticed in price charts during the gold standard days the shape of the price plot during K-fall showed an initial sharp drop during what is called the primary recession, and then a period of rough price equilibrium during which the economy and stock market booms. Then there follows a second sharp drop in the price level that brings about what is called the secondary depression. The secondary depression is another name for K-winter. So this means that the fall from plateau should signal the fall-->winter transition in the price sphere.



Here is a plot of prices (raw prices up to the Depression and reduced prices after) and interest rates for the current cycle and the one before it. The plots are centered on the K-peak as year zero and the time scale adjusted to fit the timing of the last cycle. The K-peaks are easy to see. Both prices and interest rates reach the highest levels for the entire 50 year period at this time. The troughs are easy to see as well.

The plateau can also been seen and it now becomes clear why it is called a "plateau". If you think of the price plot as a mountain the period of price equilibrium shortly after the peak looks like a plateau. It is also easy to see the decline to the right of the plateau, the fall from plateau, which in the last cycle occurred 9 years after the K-peak in 1920. It just so happened that stocks peaked in the same year and so both the stock and price indicators gave 1929 as the date for the fall-->winter transition.

For the current cycle, the fall off plateau began in 2001. So we have K-winter definitely starting in 2000-01.

So lets compare the previous transition points:

K-cycle says 1929; saeculum = 1929
K-cycle says 1946-1949; saeculum = 1946
K-cycle says 1966; saeculum = 1964
K-cycle says 1981-82; saeculum = 1984
K-cycle says 2000-01; saeculum = ?????

The K-cycle data has been within 2 years each time, so this suggests the 4T start began not later than 2003.

A completely independently line of argument using the paradigm model for the saeculum has the 4T beginning 38-39 years after the last 2T. This gives 2002-2003 as likely dates. One can choose 2001 for 911 or 2003 for the Iraq invasion as trigger, it probably doesn't matter, but the 4T is clearly here now. It cannot be a 3T because the markets and economy do not function the bizarre way they are now during a 3T.

During a 4T the rules change. We have all grown up with the idea that rising inflation means rising interest rates. Forget about that, that's 3T thinking. We have all lived under the idea that a powerful military translates to national security, so much so that we changed the name of the War Department to the Department of Defense in the 1T. Forget about such 1T thinking now. All those hundreds of billions a year to the Department of Defense bought no defense on 911. We might as well call them the War Department again because that's what they do. The civilian government immediately recognized that no defense would be forthcoming from the DOD, so they created a new defense department instead.







Post#9979 at 07-09-2005 11:59 AM by Brian Beecher [at Downers Grove, IL joined Sep 2001 #posts 2,937]
---
07-09-2005, 11:59 AM #9979
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Downers Grove, IL
Posts
2,937

I found the Public Sociologist to be very interesting, and was especially taken with the post about The Long Emergency. I have pointed out here on this forum several times that we continue to refuse to do anything about a lot of these issues. I even created a thread titled Will We Ever Reduce Auto Dependency? Seems as if the obvious answer is not until we absolutely have to. Need I say more?







Post#9980 at 07-10-2005 09:49 AM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
---
07-10-2005, 09:49 AM #9980
Join Date
Sep 2003
Location
I'm in the Big City now, boy!
Posts
1,655

Hey man. Thanks for reading.

Edit to add:

That's one of my favorite threads.







Post#9981 at 07-10-2005 06:10 PM by Earl and Mooch [at Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots joined Sep 2002 #posts 2,106]
---
07-10-2005, 06:10 PM #9981
Join Date
Sep 2002
Location
Delaware - we pave paradise and put up parking lots
Posts
2,106

Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
A completely independently line of argument using the paradigm model for the saeculum has the 4T beginning 38-39 years after the last 2T. This gives 2002-2003 as likely dates. One can choose 2001 for 911 or 2003 for the Iraq invasion as trigger, it probably doesn't matter, but the 4T is clearly here now. It cannot be a 3T because the markets and economy do not function the bizarre way they are now during a 3T.
I would tend to agree with all of this. We probably won't know for a while yet what exactly the trigger was, but 4T is certainly here now.
"My generation, we were the generation that was going to change the world: somehow we were going to make it a little less lonely, a little less hungry, a little more just place. But it seems that when that promise slipped through our hands we didn´t replace it with nothing but lost faith."

Bruce Springsteen, 1987
http://brucebase.wikispaces.com/1987...+YORK+CITY,+NY







Post#9982 at 07-11-2005 01:07 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
---
07-11-2005, 01:07 AM #9982
Join Date
Mar 2003
Posts
2,460

Quote Originally Posted by JTaber 1972
Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
A completely independently line of argument using the paradigm model for the saeculum has the 4T beginning 38-39 years after the last 2T. This gives 2002-2003 as likely dates. One can choose 2001 for 911 or 2003 for the Iraq invasion as trigger, it probably doesn't matter, but the 4T is clearly here now. It cannot be a 3T because the markets and economy do not function the bizarre way they are now during a 3T.
I would tend to agree with all of this. We probably won't know for a while yet what exactly the trigger was, but 4T is certainly here now.
One possibility would combine 9/11 with the Iraq Campaign as a sort of 'double trigger' for what will prove to be a largely internal 4T, in that the apparent unity after 9/11, and the resulting euphoria, was based in part on the mutual (false) expectation that 'the other side would now have to realize that their beliefs and values are completely and totally false, and adopt our ways wholeheartedly and voluntarily'. Within six months of 9/11, in spring 2002, it was already becoming clear that nothing of the sort was going to happen, in either direction. At that point, both sides began to feel (without any realistic justification for feeling thus) that 'the other side' had double-crossed them. However, that mutually held feeling of having been double-crossed by their Culture War opponents didn't really roar to the surface to a degree sufficient to preclude any thought of a 'unifying' 4T until the Iraq Campaign a year after the post-9/11 'unity' euphoria had pretty much worn off. Since early 2003, however, each side in the Culture wars has looked at the other in a manner summed up by some lines sung by Jessie Colter in a song on the album 'White Mansions'

"They want to change your way of life, a life you thought was right; all you've held dear since birth they'll rearrange, but I don't think you're gonna live to see the change."

And by Waylon Jennings in another song on the same album:

"Watch this black cloud roll, They're comin' down to tear away your soul."

If you think I'm over-dramatizing, then why is it so easy for people on each side who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?







Post#9983 at 07-11-2005 08:00 AM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
---
07-11-2005, 08:00 AM #9983
Join Date
Sep 2003
Location
I'm in the Big City now, boy!
Posts
1,655

Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
Quote Originally Posted by JTaber 1972
Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
A completely independently line of argument using the paradigm model for the saeculum has the 4T beginning 38-39 years after the last 2T. This gives 2002-2003 as likely dates. One can choose 2001 for 911 or 2003 for the Iraq invasion as trigger, it probably doesn't matter, but the 4T is clearly here now. It cannot be a 3T because the markets and economy do not function the bizarre way they are now during a 3T.
I would tend to agree with all of this. We probably won't know for a while yet what exactly the trigger was, but 4T is certainly here now.
One possibility would combine 9/11 with the Iraq Campaign as a sort of 'double trigger' for what will prove to be a largely internal 4T, in that the apparent unity after 9/11, and the resulting euphoria, was based in part on the mutual (false) expectation that 'the other side would now have to realize that their beliefs and values are completely and totally false, and adopt our ways wholeheartedly and voluntarily'. Within six months of 9/11, in spring 2002, it was already becoming clear that nothing of the sort was going to happen, in either direction. At that point, both sides began to feel (without any realistic justification for feeling thus) that 'the other side' had double-crossed them. However, that mutually held feeling of having been double-crossed by their Culture War opponents didn't really roar to the surface to a degree sufficient to preclude any thought of a 'unifying' 4T until the Iraq Campaign a year after the post-9/11 'unity' euphoria had pretty much worn off. Since early 2003, however, each side in the Culture wars has looked at the other in a manner summed up by some lines sung by Jessie Colter in a song on the album 'White Mansions'

"They want to change your way of life, a life you thought was right; all you've held dear since birth they'll rearrange, but I don't think you're gonna live to see the change."

And by Waylon Jennings in another song on the same album:

"Watch this black cloud roll, They're comin' down to tear away your soul."

If you think I'm over-dramatizing, then why is it so easy for people on each side who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?
I think you are right on with some of this. Mui props to you.







Post#9984 at 07-11-2005 08:41 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-11-2005, 08:41 AM #9984
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
... why is it so easy for people on each side _of the culture war) who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?
I live in a very Red section of a Red state, so this may be a local phenomenon. About 5 years ago, the rhetoric from the right seemed to shift to blame-blame-blame, even more than before. Some of it was talk radio, some, I suspect, originated in the most fundamental of the churches.

The initial response from the non-right was to ignore the brick bats and go on with life. In cases where real tension existed, the preferred choice was to say nothing and roll one's eyes. The last election finally ended that, though I don't believe it was the election per se. The blame game became an exercise in "we won and we're going to have our way". This time, the non-right started to take notice.

It's still on a low boil, but Sabinius is right - the commity is gone. I'm not sure that portends the 4T is here, but things are heading that way.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#9985 at 07-11-2005 08:47 AM by lexpat [at joined May 2004 #posts 87]
---
07-11-2005, 08:47 AM #9985
Join Date
May 2004
Posts
87

Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
If you think I'm over-dramatizing, then why is it so easy for people on each side who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?
I think you're over-dramatizing. It's posturing, playing out. Reality TV, the Internet, gaming. You're the blue tokens, I'm the red. It's 3T BS. Whatever crisis hits, it's not going to be a new civil war. It's all an identity game. Reds become redder, blues bluer as a way of beating their chests and playing a role just like everybody they see. This is what happens when you get used to being able to choose your avatar!







Post#9986 at 07-11-2005 09:13 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-11-2005, 09:13 AM #9986
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by lexpat
Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
If you think I'm over-dramatizing, then why is it so easy for people on each side who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?
I think you're over-dramatizing. It's posturing, playing out. Reality TV, the Internet, gaming. You're the blue tokens, I'm the red. It's 3T BS. Whatever crisis hits, it's not going to be a new civil war. It's all an identity game. Reds become redder, blues bluer as a way of beating their chests and playing a role just like everybody they see. This is what happens when you get used to being able to choose your avatar!
I don't think this is quite so banal. I agree there will not be a Civil War, but there will be conflict and it will be internal. I see a financial war of attrition as the most likely option. The Reds have had an advantage due to weak or anti labor laws, and a general transfer of tax burden to the Blues. That's now beginning to hurt the Blues, and they're beginning to react.

I would expect a race to insanity, where the two sides try to leverage advantage, but basically end-up defunding the government. We're already on our way, so that's not much of a stretch. The next round will be a backlash against the private sector that's basically become a wealth transfer vehicle for a powerful few. On how that will play, the Magic 8-Ball would predict: "The outlook is murky. Ask again later."
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#9987 at 07-11-2005 09:29 AM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
---
07-11-2005, 09:29 AM #9987
Join Date
Sep 2003
Location
I'm in the Big City now, boy!
Posts
1,655

Quote Originally Posted by lexpat
Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
If you think I'm over-dramatizing, then why is it so easy for people on each side who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?
I think you're over-dramatizing. It's posturing, playing out. Reality TV, the Internet, gaming. You're the blue tokens, I'm the red. It's 3T BS. Whatever crisis hits, it's not going to be a new civil war. It's all an identity game. Reds become redder, blues bluer as a way of beating their chests and playing a role just like everybody they see. This is what happens when you get used to being able to choose your avatar!
Dude, have you read eric's posts? Have you visited red-land?







Post#9988 at 07-11-2005 10:22 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
---
07-11-2005, 10:22 AM #9988
Join Date
Mar 2003
Posts
2,460

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon
I don't think this is quite so banal. I agree there will not be a Civil War, but there will be conflict and it will be internal. I see a financial war of attrition as the most likely option. The Reds have had an advantage due to weak or anti labor laws, and a general transfer of tax burden to the Blues. That's now beginning to hurt the Blues, and they're beginning to react.

I would expect a race to insanity, where the two sides try to leverage advantage, but basically end-up defunding the government. We're already on our way, so that's not much of a stretch. The next round will be a backlash against the private sector that's basically become a wealth transfer vehicle for a powerful few. On how that will play, the Magic 8-Ball would predict: "The outlook is murky. Ask again later."
Last night, I found myself sleeping on a possible scenario of what some call a 'Fourth Generation Warfare' scenario, where small bands of fanatics with quiet but widespread support mount an al-Qaeda style terrorist campaign against their opponents - and the US military proving to be no more able to deal effectively with that kind of warfare here at home that they have been overseas. Combine your scenario with mine, spread out over at two or three Presidential terms, and... :shock:

After all, for 'Fourth Generation Warfare", you don't need to deploy a large military, as we're seeing right now in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, you are well advised to NOT do so - not when small bands of fanatics are more than superbly suited for the purpose, while another word for 'Large Military Force' is 'Target' - along with the other side's will to go on fighting (which is, in fact, the PRIMARY target in Fourth Generation Warfare).







Post#9989 at 07-11-2005 12:48 PM by Croakmore [at The hazardous reefs of Silentium joined Nov 2001 #posts 2,426]
---
07-11-2005, 12:48 PM #9989
Join Date
Nov 2001
Location
The hazardous reefs of Silentium
Posts
2,426

Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon
I don't think this is quite so banal. I agree there will not be a Civil War, but there will be conflict and it will be internal. I see a financial war of attrition as the most likely option. The Reds have had an advantage due to weak or anti labor laws, and a general transfer of tax burden to the Blues. That's now beginning to hurt the Blues, and they're beginning to react.

I would expect a race to insanity, where the two sides try to leverage advantage, but basically end-up defunding the government. We're already on our way, so that's not much of a stretch. The next round will be a backlash against the private sector that's basically become a wealth transfer vehicle for a powerful few. On how that will play, the Magic 8-Ball would predict: "The outlook is murky. Ask again later."
Last night, I found myself sleeping on a possible scenario of what some call a 'Fourth Generation Warfare' scenario, where small bands of fanatics with quiet but widespread support mount an al-Qaeda style terrorist campaign against their opponents - and the US military proving to be no more able to deal effectively with that kind of warfare here at home that they have been overseas. Combine your scenario with mine, spread out over at two or three Presidential terms, and... :shock:

After all, for 'Fourth Generation Warfare", you don't need to deploy a large military, as we're seeing right now in Iraq and Afghanistan. In fact, you are well advised to NOT do so - not when small bands of fanatics are more than superbly suited for the purpose, while another word for 'Large Military Force' is 'Target' - along with the other side's will to go on fighting (which is, in fact, the PRIMARY target in Fourth Generation Warfare).
What you are describing may have already begun: Waco-inspired OK City bombing; abortion clinic murders and bombings; BTK-type murders; Columbine and other school shootings; youth lawlessness and gang massacres; mass pediphilia by Catholic priests; insurgent boarder invasions.

And where is the National Guard when we need it?

Predicting the invocation of a draft is like predicting snow before Christmas in Canada (oops, wrong thread).

--Croakmore







Post#9990 at 07-11-2005 02:32 PM by takascar2 [at North Side, Chi-Town, 1962 joined Jan 2002 #posts 563]
---
07-11-2005, 02:32 PM #9990
Join Date
Jan 2002
Location
North Side, Chi-Town, 1962
Posts
563

Quote Originally Posted by JTaber 1972
Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
A completely independently line of argument using the paradigm model for the saeculum has the 4T beginning 38-39 years after the last 2T. This gives 2002-2003 as likely dates. One can choose 2001 for 911 or 2003 for the Iraq invasion as trigger, it probably doesn't matter, but the 4T is clearly here now. It cannot be a 3T because the markets and economy do not function the bizarre way they are now during a 3T.
I would tend to agree with all of this. We probably won't know for a while yet what exactly the trigger was, but 4T is certainly here now.
I disagree. We have not yet seen the people's reaction change. I can see a bunch of things that can set it off, and I agree it will be soon, but it has not
ocurred yet. Joe Sixpack still doesn't get it yet.







Post#9991 at 07-11-2005 06:10 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
---
07-11-2005, 06:10 PM #9991
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
Intersection of History
Posts
4,376

Quote Originally Posted by takascar2
Quote Originally Posted by JTaber 1972
Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
A completely independently line of argument using the paradigm model for the saeculum has the 4T beginning 38-39 years after the last 2T. This gives 2002-2003 as likely dates. One can choose 2001 for 911 or 2003 for the Iraq invasion as trigger, it probably doesn't matter, but the 4T is clearly here now. It cannot be a 3T because the markets and economy do not function the bizarre way they are now during a 3T.
I would tend to agree with all of this. We probably won't know for a while yet what exactly the trigger was, but 4T is certainly here now.
I disagree. We have not yet seen the people's reaction change. I can see a bunch of things that can set it off, and I agree it will be soon, but it has not
ocurred yet. Joe Sixpack still doesn't get it yet.
I think that we are still in a 3T, but agree with Mike that the newest trends point more towards a 4T nature. I think that we are merely in a Crisis Era, as opposed to a 4T, or a Secular Crisis. The dictinction between these three types of events is not as visible in prior cycles, but a very visible on throughout this one.

This was very visible during the prior Awakening. In 1961, the Awakening Era (defined in Generations) began. In November 1963, the Second Turning began. In 1967, the Spiritual Awakening (as defined in Generations) began.

The Election of JFK to the presidency began a new "Age of Camelot" that lasted until Kennedy's assassination. In between those two era defining events. Even though the era was still in a 1T, most new trends of the era shifted more towards Awakening thinking. In contrast to the 1950s, the early 1960s were a considerably more idealistic era. In Generations the Awakening Era begins with "cultural creativity and the emergence of new ideals". This was characteristic of the Camelot Era. In 1962, the Port Huron Statement was written, and the SDS founded. By 1960, young people were increasingly flocking to the Civil Rights Movement. In 1963, MLK gave his I Have a Dream speech. This was a calm period. There were no riots. The Cuban Missle Crisis did not create a public dispay of discontent. People believed that America could land a man on the moon by the end of the decade. People were generally very hopeful, and even optimistic about the future of race relations in America.

The Second Turning is the point at which people began to act in the new direction. This is the point at which the youth rebellion explodes. This is when the riots, angry sermons, and a generation gap appears. The Free Speech Movement and RNC were 2T events in 1964. The Watts Riot in 1965 was a 2T event. When LBJ tried to build his own Camelot, he failed miserably. Even while 2T events were exploding across the scene, many areas were still stuck in 1T action. This changes during a Spiritual Awakening when the 2T totally consumes society, with the 1T totally disappearing. This happened with the Anti-Vietnam Movement, the Robert Kennedy and MLK assassinations, the Summer of Love, the general rise of the counter culture becoming the new mainstream culture, and radical shootings and bombings across America. The period from 1961 to 1967 were perhaps the brightest period in living memory for America. After 1967, cynicism began replacing idealism, and terrible social division within society created an "internal crisis".

I think that things are unfolding in a similar manner today. Looking at the period from 1997 to 2004, we definitely see a marked shift in social attitudes. The Crisis Era could've begun with the Stock Market Crash of March 2000 (and the beginning of a bear market that lasts into today), E2K, or 9/11. In Generations, the Crisis Era starts with "growing collective unity in the face of perceived social peril". We have definitely seen this trend over the past few years. The growing unity has been seen among both people who see themselves as liberals and who see themselves as conservatives. In some ways, this new unity is even transcending these old lines, with the fight against the Patriot ACT. Where leading tech thinkers pushed the individualistic aspect of computing and the internet during the 1990s, leading thinkers today push the collective aspect of computing. The last few years also saw a dramatic increase in social activism in the form of protests, volunteering, and the building of new alliances and coalitions. With each passing year this decade, economic news usually produces more fear and gloom than optimism. The bear market shows no signs of ending. People are thinking of and finding new ways to exercise the collective power of people. Cultural movements (such as Punk, Cyberpunk, Hip Hop) are now becoming political movements. There is increasing talk in the press of a "post-ethnic" nation as society increasingly moves beyond ethnic divisiveness that have prevailed over the past 40 or so years. After 9/11, there were many, many references to the cold weather moving into the nation (the same cold wind that was felt in the period starting in 1927, which became bitter during the eary 1930s). E2K4 revealed that the American population was very volatile.

So things are different today than during the 1990s. This decade seems very dark in comparison to the 1990s. The period since 9/11 thus far is the antipode of JFK's Camelot. As someone else said, we've felt the cold. We haven't seen the snow yet. We have not seen the public unrest characteristic of Fourth Turnings. No real attempt by society to fundamentally change their society. That time, however, will happen any moment now.
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
intp '82er







Post#9992 at 07-11-2005 06:25 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
---
07-11-2005, 06:25 PM #9992
Join Date
Jun 2001
Location
Intersection of History
Posts
4,376

A Different New York

A Different New York

By BOB HERBERT

Yes, it was a hateful crime. And, yes, it happened in the Howard Beach section of Queens. But, no, this is not déjà vu.

Early last Wednesday a neighborhood nitwit named Nicholas (Fat Nick) Minucci pummeled a fellow named Glenn Moore with a metal baseball bat, police said. Mr. Moore was walking around Howard Beach with a couple of friends. What they were up to is not real clear and not particularly relevant. Maybe they were doing some 3 a.m. sightseeing. At least one is reported to have said he was looking for a car to steal.

In any event, Mr. Moore and his friends, who are black, ended up being chased by Fat Nick and a couple of his friends, who are white. When Mr. Moore tripped and fell, Fat Nick, according to the police, whaled on him with the bat, leaving him with a fractured skull.

The beating allegedly was accompanied by racial slurs. And some of Mr. Moore's belongings were stolen.

As bad as this incident was, it would never have risen to the status of a major news story in a city of eight million people except for the fact that it happened in Howard Beach, a nearly all-white residential area near Kennedy Airport. Howard Beach has never lived down the notoriety that resulted from the hideous death in 1986 of Michael Griffith, one of three black men who were stranded in the neighborhood after their car broke down. They were attacked by a gang of white youths who were enraged by their mere presence.

Mr. Griffith was struck by a car and killed as he ran onto a highway in an effort to flee the gang.

That incident ignited a prolonged period of turmoil that severely aggravated the already raw nerves of race relations in the city. Public officials, including the Queens district attorney, John Santucci, clashed openly with lawyers for the surviving victims. Eventually a special state prosecutor, Charles Hynes, who is now the Brooklyn district attorney, was named to handle the case.

That was New York then, when subway fares were a dollar, crime was out of control, and Gimbels was bidding the world adieu.

The city is a different and a better place these days. Mayor Michael Bloomberg could not have responded faster to last week's attack if he had been wearing Rollerblades. "I cannot stress it enough," he said. "We are going to live together, and nobody, nobody, should ever feel that they will be attacked because of their ethnicity, their orientation, their religion, where they live, their documented status, or anything else. Period. End of story."

The police moved just as fast. They quickly arrested Mr. Minucci, who is 19 and addicted to a gangster wannabe lifestyle. (He drives a $60,000 Cadillac S.U.V. and likes to cruise around flashing gold necklaces, Rolexes and other expensive bling.) The attack was deemed a hate crime, and Mr. Minucci was charged with first-degree assault. An alleged accomplice, Anthony Ench, 21, was also arrested, and a third man is being questioned.

The current Queens district attorney, Richard Brown, made it clear that anyone charged in the case would be vigorously prosecuted. And the Rev. Al Sharpton, who was the point person for the protests in the first Howard Beach case, praised the way the mayor, Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly and other officials have taken control of this one.

A singular development in New York over the past several years, accelerated by the terrible experience of Sept. 11, 2001, has been a willingness to move beyond the chronic ethnic conflict and divisiveness of previous eras. People in and out of government have worked hard to address problems in constructive ways.

We may not be approaching nirvana, and Howard Beach can hardly be characterized as a haven of racial tolerance. But there are very few New Yorkers interested in revisiting the searing ethnic face-offs of the past.

Mr. Sharpton, who had lunch with several public officials in Howard Beach on Friday, said that "the tone of the city has changed - as I have changed" in 19 years and that this incident should not be allowed to spiral out of control or overshadow the substantial progress the city has made.

He said he was concerned about the attack, which is why he went to Howard Beach. But he pointedly noted, "We're not fighting for the right to steal cars."

A crime was committed in Howard Beach. The wisest response would be to investigate, prosecute and move on.
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
intp '82er







Post#9993 at 07-11-2005 08:50 PM by lexpat [at joined May 2004 #posts 87]
---
07-11-2005, 08:50 PM #9993
Join Date
May 2004
Posts
87

Re: A Different New York

Quote Originally Posted by Shemsu Heru
A Different New York

By BOB HERBERT...


"....The city is a different and a better place these days. Mayor Michael Bloomberg could not have responded faster to last week's attack if he had been wearing Rollerblades. "I cannot stress it enough," he said. "We are going to live together, and nobody, nobody, should ever feel that they will be attacked because of their ethnicity, their orientation, their religion, where they live, their documented status, or anything else. Period. End of story."

....A singular development in New York over the past several years, accelerated by the terrible experience of Sept. 11, 2001, has been a willingness to move beyond the chronic ethnic conflict and divisiveness of previous eras. People in and out of government have worked hard to address problems in constructive ways.

We may not be approaching nirvana, and Howard Beach can hardly be characterized as a haven of racial tolerance. But there are very few New Yorkers interested in revisiting the searing ethnic face-offs of the past.

Mr. Sharpton, who had lunch with several public officials in Howard Beach on Friday, said that "the tone of the city has changed - as I have changed" in 19 years and that this incident should not be allowed to spiral out of control or overshadow the substantial progress the city has made.

He said he was concerned about the attack, which is why he went to Howard Beach. But he pointedly noted, "We're not fighting for the right to steal cars."

A crime was committed in Howard Beach. The wisest response would be to investigate, prosecute and move on.
I lived in NYC back in the eighties. I also used to spend a lot of time back then down in a place called Batesburg SC, where I'd parked the truck I'd driven out from the West Coast. Back then, the connections between the two places were simple. You had a few aristos who might have owned a palmetto farm or something who lived in a Park Avenue apartment and wintered on their plantations. You also had black families who'd moved north for work and where living in Harlem or Bed Stuy but still had their roots in Carolina. For just about everybody else, the other place was like another planet.

America has changed since then and continues to change, but in a similar way. People all know and hear so much more about each other. People argue here about the signpost for the third turning, but I've always thought of it as the advent of MTV, when kids in suburban and even rural Podunk suddenly started seeing some of the free and easy product of the Awakening and more than ever before started to define themselves in terms of it. I mean, you've got to know something about your neighbors before you can really hate them. I think we're still in that era and that the increasing familiarity begetting increasing contempt thing is still the major issue. NYC, as a sort of concentrated version of America, has seen the last stage of this process - a kind of acceptance. But that doesn't mean we're not still 3T

As far as I'm concerned, we're such a private people anyway (compared to Asia where I spend at least six months every year), that the Crisis is going to have be something more than just social conflict played out mostly in the media. It will be something financial or technological and will remind people of what they share...a history of overcoming obstacles and practicing just enough tolerance to ensure the path to personal prosperity
stays clear.







Post#9994 at 07-11-2005 09:16 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
---
07-11-2005, 09:16 PM #9994
Join Date
Jun 2001
Posts
24

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon
Quote Originally Posted by lexpat
Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
If you think I'm over-dramatizing, then why is it so easy for people on each side who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?
I think you're over-dramatizing. It's posturing, playing out. Reality TV, the Internet, gaming. You're the blue tokens, I'm the red. It's 3T BS. Whatever crisis hits, it's not going to be a new civil war. It's all an identity game. Reds become redder, blues bluer as a way of beating their chests and playing a role just like everybody they see. This is what happens when you get used to being able to choose your avatar!
I don't think this is quite so banal. I agree there will not be a Civil War, but there will be conflict and it will be internal. I see a financial war of attrition as the most likely option. The Reds have had an advantage due to weak or anti labor laws, and a general transfer of tax burden to the Blues. That's now beginning to hurt the Blues, and they're beginning to react.

I would expect a race to insanity, where the two sides try to leverage advantage, but basically end-up defunding the government. We're already on our way, so that's not much of a stretch. The next round will be a backlash against the private sector that's basically become a wealth transfer vehicle for a powerful few. On how that will play, the Magic 8-Ball would predict: "The outlook is murky. Ask again later."
Will these events occur before or after the Great Devaluation? Before or after the Regeneracy?







Post#9995 at 07-11-2005 09:45 PM by Milo [at The Lands Beyond joined Aug 2004 #posts 926]
---
07-11-2005, 09:45 PM #9995
Join Date
Aug 2004
Location
The Lands Beyond
Posts
926

Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon
Quote Originally Posted by lexpat
Quote Originally Posted by Sabinus Invictus
If you think I'm over-dramatizing, then why is it so easy for people on each side who used to be able to hold civilized conversations with each other, now resort at the drop of a hat to insults and mutual demonization, each blaming the other entirely for it - and for everything else that's wrong, and in doing so, carrying the matter to the point where neither person can back down on any one issue without conceding error on all basic beliefs and values, and in the process admitting to being as 'hopelessly and irredeemably evil' as they were accused of being?
I think you're over-dramatizing. It's posturing, playing out. Reality TV, the Internet, gaming. You're the blue tokens, I'm the red. It's 3T BS. Whatever crisis hits, it's not going to be a new civil war. It's all an identity game. Reds become redder, blues bluer as a way of beating their chests and playing a role just like everybody they see. This is what happens when you get used to being able to choose your avatar!
I don't think this is quite so banal. I agree there will not be a Civil War, but there will be conflict and it will be internal. I see a financial war of attrition as the most likely option. The Reds have had an advantage due to weak or anti labor laws, and a general transfer of tax burden to the Blues. That's now beginning to hurt the Blues, and they're beginning to react.

I would expect a race to insanity, where the two sides try to leverage advantage, but basically end-up defunding the government. We're already on our way, so that's not much of a stretch. The next round will be a backlash against the private sector that's basically become a wealth transfer vehicle for a powerful few. On how that will play, the Magic 8-Ball would predict: "The outlook is murky. Ask again later."
No civil war, but no one has yet to explain to me (or to be sure even attempt to explain to me) how we will afford 1) a worldwide war against Islamist terrorism 2) the retirement of tens of millions of baby boomers (with projected shortfalls in the tens of trillions) 3) a multi-trillion dollar new energy infrastructure and 4) everything else in the context of a steep devaluation of the dollar, peak oil, and likely a deep global recession or depression (or even in the context of glowing prosperity, which isn't going to happen).
"Hell is other people." Jean Paul Sartre

"I called on hate to give me my life / and he came on his black horse, obsidian knife" Kristin Hersh







Post#9996 at 07-11-2005 10:00 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
---
07-11-2005, 10:00 PM #9996
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
'47 cohort still lost in Falwelland
Posts
16,709

Quote Originally Posted by Milo
... no one has yet to explain to me (or to be sure even attempt to explain to me) how we will afford 1) a worldwide war against Islamist terrorism 2) the retirement of tens of millions of baby boomers (with projected shortfalls in the tens of trillions) 3) a multi-trillion dollar new energy infrastructure and 4) everything else in the context of a steep devaluation of the dollar, peak oil, and likely a deep global recession or depression (or even in the context of glowing prosperity, which isn't going to happen).
The reason no one has or will explain is because, no one knows. Ain't 4Ts fun. :?
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#9997 at 07-12-2005 08:22 AM by Brian Beecher [at Downers Grove, IL joined Sep 2001 #posts 2,937]
---
07-12-2005, 08:22 AM #9997
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Downers Grove, IL
Posts
2,937

I say we are still 3T because no spirit of sacrifice has begun. We need to look no further than the fact that despite record high gasoline prices demand continues to increase and shows no signs of slowing down. In an earlier post right here I stated that we probably will continue to do nothing to reduce auto dependence until we absolutely have no alternative. Also, in wake of the London attacks Blair told his contrymen to go about their normal activities because otherwise the terrorists would think they had won, which is the exact same thing Bush told Americans after 911. But, three to four decades ago the exact opposite happened in cities around the country as middle class homeowners fled city neighborhoods allowing domestic terrorists(gangbangers, drug dealers and other assorted riff-raff) to take over these areas. In this case it was clear cut that the bad guys were the winners. Go figure.







Post#9998 at 07-12-2005 09:39 AM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
---
07-12-2005, 09:39 AM #9998
Join Date
Jul 2001
Location
Kalamazoo MI
Posts
4,502

Quote Originally Posted by Milo
No civil war, but no one has yet to explain to me (or to be sure even attempt to explain to me) how we will afford 1) a worldwide war against Islamist terrorism 2) the retirement of tens of millions of baby boomers (with projected shortfalls in the tens of trillions) 3) a multi-trillion dollar new energy infrastructure and 4) everything else in the context of a steep devaluation of the dollar, peak oil, and likely a deep global recession or depression (or even in the context of glowing prosperity, which isn't going to happen).
In modern terms, WW II was an unfunded liability of tens of trillions of dollars for future generations. After the war we built tons of new infrastructure, energy and transportation. Taxes were sky-high, but we managed then. We will manage this time too, although I expect to be taken to the cleaners. We will muddle through, you and I just aren't going to like it. But hell I knew this when I was 20.







Post#9999 at 07-12-2005 10:27 AM by scott 63 [at Birmingham joined Sep 2001 #posts 697]
---
07-12-2005, 10:27 AM #9999
Join Date
Sep 2001
Location
Birmingham
Posts
697

Quote Originally Posted by Brian Beecher
I say we are still 3T because no spirit of sacrifice has begun. We need to look no further than the fact that despite record high gasoline prices demand continues to increase and shows no signs of slowing down. In an earlier post right here I stated that we probably will continue to do nothing to reduce auto dependence until we absolutely have no alternative. Also, in wake of the London attacks Blair told his contrymen to go about their normal activities because otherwise the terrorists would think they had won, which is the exact same thing Bush told Americans after 911. But, three to four decades ago the exact opposite happened in cities around the country as middle class homeowners fled city neighborhoods allowing domestic terrorists(gangbangers, drug dealers and other assorted riff-raff) to take over these areas. In this case it was clear cut that the bad guys were the winners. Go figure.
This has struck me, too: how little call for sacrifice has been heard in the wake of what we are told is an epochal struggle against evil. Prior to the 3T, at least society had to accept the threat of vaporization as the cost of facing down communism. Here in 3T land, no sacrifice is too small. "Go about your lives as if nothing has happened." Huh?

You're spot on. Blair's exhortations confirm that the 3T continues. Comparing today to the the Blitz is farcical. During the Blitz, they evacuated the children and punished families for not following blackout rules. Hardly business as usual.
Leave No Child Behind - Teach Evolution.







Post#10000 at 07-12-2005 10:35 AM by Prisoner 81591518 [at joined Mar 2003 #posts 2,460]
---
07-12-2005, 10:35 AM #10000
Join Date
Mar 2003
Posts
2,460

Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
Quote Originally Posted by Milo
No civil war, but no one has yet to explain to me (or to be sure even attempt to explain to me) how we will afford 1) a worldwide war against Islamist terrorism 2) the retirement of tens of millions of baby boomers (with projected shortfalls in the tens of trillions) 3) a multi-trillion dollar new energy infrastructure and 4) everything else in the context of a steep devaluation of the dollar, peak oil, and likely a deep global recession or depression (or even in the context of glowing prosperity, which isn't going to happen).
In modern terms, WW II was an unfunded liability of tens of trillions of dollars for future generations. After the war we built tons of new infrastructure, energy and transportation. Taxes were sky-high, but we managed then. We will manage this time too, although I expect to be taken to the cleaners. We will muddle through, you and I just aren't going to like it. But hell I knew this when I was 20.
Mike, I suspect that he doesn't really want to hear 'we'll muddle through', that what he wants to hear is 'the rotten capitalist edifice that is America will buckle and collapse under the strain - the sooner, the better'.
-----------------------------------------