Originally Posted by Croakmore

We might have a chance to measure the 3T/4T boundary by way of events unfolding in Crawford, TX. If Cindy Sheehan's side has more supporters than those who oppose her, and if significant celebrities come to her support in some dramatic way, I'd say we are on the theshold of a 4T. If events turn out otherwise: no big deal at all, just another hoorah from the war and George Bush, and eventually Cindy is driven out of town, then I'd say we are still 3T and shying away from 4T things.

--Croakmore

A 4T is nigh. The generational constellation is typical of the time at which one occurs. The question is not so much whether it will come, but instead what sorts of events will leave no question that the 3T is over and how some excess will resolve itself.

Political passions are strong. They could be shoved into the background after the 1970s, and such outrages as Timothy McVeigh's mass murder in Oklahoma City changed few opinions. McVeigh represented a political fringe with almost no support in any circles. Likewise the late Paul Hill who murdered an abortionist. (To be sure, most opponents of abortion do not support what Paul Hill did). Today we have people who want to put their opposites into political oblivion forever and don't care about the consequences so long as they achieve or maintain power.

Driven off? I have participated in some other news Forums, and I have noticed people with murder in their hearts. Some of the supporters of Dubya think that he is the greatest figure in American history, and some people think he is the absolute worst. Some, I think, would do anything in support of a leader whom they claim represents all that is necessary for America. One can take the word "anything" quite literally.

Numbers of supporters at a rally means little, and celebrities lack the moral authority that you attribute to them. There's as much populist contempt for "celebrities" as there is admiration. What matters more is how people act at such rallies -- and police or perhaps even the military are included. Should some people express themselves violently, then all Hell can break loose.

The culture is changing, and it is sure to change even more. The Silent are now old. The great mark of the Silent upon American culture -- self-effacing humor -- may not age out of appropriateness, but such practitioners as Alan King (died 2004), Johnny Carson (died this year at age 79), Andy Griffith, Don Knotts, Leslie Nielsen, Dick Van Dyke, Phil Newhart, Mary Tyler Moore, Joan Rivers, Tim Conway, and Jerry Lewis -- even Bill Cosby -- are themselves getting old and will drop off the scene as the Grim Reaper finally gets to them. Their active presence in American life will disappear as we most need them... when passions are at their most severe, and people need a break from self-centeredness and harsh judgmentalism. TV reruns and recorded video won't be enough; people will need to recognize the silliness of their pretensions, and nobody will be there to tell them without shouting at them.

(An addendum: I notice that Bob Denver, who had the title role in Gilligan's Island, and an archetype of the self-effacing, even goofy, humor that one associates so much with the Silent Generation, died at the age of 70. The Grim Reaper got him as will happen to those Silent comics who may have left the most enduring cultural legacy of their generation and won't be repeated until the next Adaptive generation appears in adulthood, most likely around 2030. The surviving old comedians aren't doing much comedy anymore; for the last twenty or so years they have tended toward drama as their timing fades. The goofiness has largely disappeared).

The tough, stubborn, hard-hearted, ruthless, and devious will increasingly show their heavy hands, and things could get far, far worse.

So yes, it is possible that we can have a service economy. There will still be "stuff" of course, as much as we have today, but few people will be involved in making the stuff (perhaps it will be done by foreigners) just as few people are involved in growing our food. But many people will be involved in marketing and bring it to you, just as many people are involved in processing and (increasingly) preparing the food we eat. Many of the people involved in these tasks are "service" workers, but they are still involved in creating the value of the products we buy.[/quote]

I think that we Americans are in fact abandoning manufacturing to have an economy based on the export of raw-materials (fiber, lumber, food, minerals) which is consistent with the agraro-fundie, anti-modern clique behind Dubya. Such a society can have a service sector, but much of the 'service' comes from the indulgence of elites, and the rest is finance, transportation, repairs, and the like, and those are shrunk. Example: one monthly employment report showed 'robust' growth in employment, but three-fourths of the net gain was in the hiring of domestic servants. The bulk of the rest was predominately workers in restaurants and, retail stores -- generally ill-paid.

The abandonment of manufacturing serves agrarian elites well in one regard: industrial workers form labor unions and vote for liberal and socialist politicians who stand for higher wages, and the result is what one would expect in an agraro-fundie dystopia like the American South after Reconstruction until the mid-1960s
or imperial Russia before World War I.

Katrina is coming...

Originally Posted by CNN

Worst case scenario

In worst case scenarios, most of New Orleans would end up under 15 feet of water, without electricity, clean water and sewage for months. Even pumping the water out could take as long as four months to get started because the massive pumps that would do the job would be underwater.

For years, I've been hearing that if a major hurricane squarely hits New Orleans, the storm surge could overwhelm the dyke system. Much of the city is significantly below sea level. Fifteen feet is conservative for some areas. And, of course, the pumps needed to clear the water out would be flooded. Some have suggested that the city would have to be abandoned.

Loss of life wise, Katrina ought to be much smaller than September 11th, but destruction of property wise it could be larger. With some saying global warming is playing a role in increased hurricane numbers and intensity, this could prompt a mood shift. This is also a very predictable disaster. There will be a search for someone to blame.

Or it could be a nothing. Stay tuned...

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

The fundamental problem, Mike, remains: What happens when we aren't on such cozy terms with the people who make our stuff?

We buy it from India, Mexico and elsewhere.

When China finally decides to make us their Fourth World colony, how will be able to flip them off and declare war on the Red Bastards, if everything we need to fight a war is being made by them?

Let's rephrase this. When the US finally decides to nuke the Muslim world, how will we (Iran) be able to defend ourselves without nukes?

What is our answer to the Iranians? You will just have to trust us not to attack you. The same goes for the Chinese, I guess we will just have to trust them. The Republicans do and they are supposedly strong on defense.

I also have little fear that the Chinese have any interest in making a colony out of us, colonies are a drain on prosperity nowadays (just look at Iraq).

With all the Axis Of Evil noise that Bush has making since 911, I'm not sure I blame the Iranians for seeking out nukes anymore. What we need to do is support the growing anti-clerical pro-democracy movement in Iran, rather than threaten war on them. All they really need is a little separation-of-church-and-state and they'll become the second most liberal democracy in the Middle East, after Israel. If we're serious about promoting democracy in the Middle East, there is more than one way to skin a cat.

The Chinese know exactly what they are doing, which is to replace us as the sole superpower and then bend the world to their Red will. I honestly don't think the Red Republicans give a shit whether we become a defacto Chinese colony in 20 years... all they care about is making lots and lots of money for fat cat CEOs in the short term. They don't even care about the long term prospects about those companies... after all, he who dies with the most toys wins. And when you're dead, you're done.

India and Mexico? You can't convince me that "service jobs" like flipping burgers at Mickey Dee's will ever become viable enough to support a family on. This is what people who would otherwise manufacture things for a living (or operate machines that do) are being reduced to. Americans might be willing to spend $400 for an air conditioner instead of $40 if it means American jobs and manufacturing ability, but $12 for a Big Mac isn't going to happen.

I guess I don't have the same abiding faith in the market to lift all boats... and in the innate benevolence of corporations... that you do, Mike. You'd love living in Ohio! :-)

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Katrina is coming...

Originally Posted by CNN

Worst case scenario

In worst case scenarios, most of New Orleans would end up under 15 feet of water, without electricity, clean water and sewage for months. Even pumping the water out could take as long as four months to get started because the massive pumps that would do the job would be underwater.

For years, I've been hearing that if a major hurricane squarely hits New Orleans, the storm surge could overwhelm the dyke system. Much of the city is significantly below sea level. Fifteen feet is conservative for some areas. And, of course, the pumps needed to clear the water out would be flooded. Some have suggested that the city would have to be abandoned.

That is a possibility. It's always hard to evaluate situations like this with any accuracy, since they are so rare. Nobody knows exactly what a Cat 5 hitting NO will do, since it's never happened before.

The infrastructure necessary to keep NO dry is old, some of the pumping stations, IIRC, use wooden components, they are that old. The local area has sunk so low, relaive to the surrounding water-basins, that NO is a disaster waiting to happen. Even if they dodge the bullet this time (a few years ago there was a big Cat 3 bearing down that turned at the last minute), this situation will arise again sooner or later.

Loss of life wise, Katrina ought to be much smaller than September 11th, but destruction of property wise it could be larger. With some saying global warming is playing a role in increased hurricane numbers and intensity, this could prompt a mood shift. This is also a very predictable disaster. There will be a search for someone to blame.

Or it could be a nothing. Stay tuned...

The role of global warming in hurricane frequency and intensity is strongly debated among the meteorologists who study the matter. The famous Dr. Gray, for ex, is predicting a decades-long period of higher hurricane intensity and frequency (and more reaching U.S. territory), similar to the conditions that prevailed in the first half of the 20th Century. OTOH, he is skeptical of the claimed global/CO2 linkage.

The public reaction, of course, is likely to be more based on emotional reaction rather than analysis, whatever the truth of the matter.

Of course, there is far more urban territory near vulnerable American coastal areas today than there was during the last high-intensity period, there has been a major population shift toward the warm coastal territories from Florida to Texas (and of course all the way around to SoCal, but that matters less in this context). Florida was a low-population State in the 20s and 30s, today it's one of the biggest.

This could apply pressure to gas prices, too, since the Gulf coast is a major petroleum area, and this could (not sure too, but it certainly could) tear up a lot of infrastrucure.

Be that as it may, prayers for the people of Louisiana and New Orleans would seem to be in order just now.

Mike, I know New Orleans is a wild place, but I think it's the dike system, not the dyke system, that is threatened. Severely.

David K '47

Yes. Unless a hurricane hits p-town, the dyke system should be ok.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Mike, I know New Orleans is a wild place, but I think it's the dike system, not the dyke system, that is threatened. Severely.

David K '47

Bob, not Mike.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

The Chinese know exactly what they are doing, which is to replace us as the sole superpower and then bend the world to their Red will.

For what purpose. What could they possibly obtain from the US othe than a market to sell theihr stuff?

I honestly don't think the Red Republicans give a shit whether we become a defacto Chinese colony in 20 years... all they care about is making lots and lots of money for fat cat CEOs in the short term.

Fat cat CEOs have children they love too. I very much doubt that Republicans are interested in having the Chinese take over.

India and Mexico? You can't convince me that "service jobs" like flipping burgers at Mickey Dee's will ever become viable enough to support a family on. This is what people who would otherwise manufacture things for a living (or operate machines that do) are being reduced to. Americans might be willing to spend $400 for an air conditioner instead of $40 if it means American jobs and manufacturing ability, but $12 for a Big Mac isn't going to happen.

Why should Americans be willing to pay ten times more for air conditioners but not six time more for Big Macs?

I guess I don't have the same abiding faith in the market to lift all boats... and in the innate benevolence of corporations... that you do, Mike. You'd love living in Ohio! :-)

Who said anything about benevolence of corporations? The question was whether an economy with a tiny manufacturing sector can produce prosperity. My answer was it can, but that doesn't mean it will. It will also be necessary to boost wages to encourge automation in the service arena (which advances in AI will make possible). Thus a revitalized labor movement and more progressive taxation will likely also be necessary.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Mike, I know New Orleans is a wild place, but I think it's the dike system, not the dyke system, that is threatened. Severely.

David K '47

Bob, not Mike.

Apple Computer's Dictionary seems to think either spelling works...

Originally Posted by Apple

dike (also dyke) noun
1 a long wall or embankment built to prevent flooding from the sea. • [often in place names ] a low wall or earthwork serving as a boundary or defense : Offa's Dike. • a causeway. • Geology an intrusion of igneous rock cutting across existing strata. Compare with sill .
2 a ditch or watercourse.

Mr. Saari, am I allowed to use archaic forms? :wink:

I've been thinking about the implications of a New Orleans supercane over the last couple of days. I don't think that this would catalyze a Crisis mood, but it does give food for thought (all of this "food" will eventually make us obese, if we are not so already ;-) ).

Like Bob Butler has said, this was one disaster that everyone feared. You can bet that there has been extensive scenario planning for such a disaster. Just as everyone in San Francisco fears The Big One, NO has similar fears. And as someone else said, fears were raging when it looked as if a Cat. 3 storm was about to hit the city, but miraculously fell apart at the last minute. Earlier this (meteorological, as opposed to astronomical) summer, There was a series on FX called Oil Storm, in which a Cat. 6 (which really does not exist on the scale) obliterates NO, and totally severs the oil infrastructure. I haven't seen the series, but it may be an interesting show. Judging from the synopsis, this catalyzed a true 4T in the US.

Already, oil prices are now at $70/barrel. If the storm does significant damage to our oil infrastructure, prices could spike, and stay high for months. People are already reeling from the way gas is now. There have been rising reports of drive-offs and customers have been venting their anger at gas stations. A spike could cause a shock in consumer sentiment. Already, people are beginning to trade their SUVs for more efficient vehicles. SUVs could very well lose their attractiveness with high gas prices. People would use public transportation, car pooling, or even walking and biking more. Basically, such a scenario would be a major economic shock. With high gas prices, people would only become more angry and restive.

This storm will bring plenty of attention to the issue of climate change. This could lead to shifts in how the nation consumes oil, and could even involve plans to reduce dependence on oil. It could make the US develop alternative sources of oil and energy.

And then, with the recent natural disasters, it would be natural for New Ages to attribute this to "Earth Changes" and for Christians to attribute it to the apocalypse.

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

The Chinese know exactly what they are doing, which is to replace us as the sole superpower and then bend the world to their Red will.

For what purpose. What could they possibly obtain from the US othe than a market to sell theihr stuff?

While I don't think Chinese global hegemony is going to happen anytime in the near future, I have to point out that no particular reason is needed. The desire for power, simply for the sake of power, is a perfectly sufficient motive for attempts to eclipse other powers. If they thought they had a reasonable chance to displacing America from the dominant global position, the temptation for the Chinese (or any major power) would be strong.

Originally Posted by Shemsu Heru

And then, with the recent natural disasters, it would be natural for New Ages to attribute this to "Earth Changes" and for Christians to attribute it to the apocalypse.

Both following the same basic impulse, and both almost certainly being wrong.

This isn't any great mystery, really. It may be only the 'third Cat 5 to ever hit America since records were kept' as the TV reports keep repeating, but it's probably more like the 3 hundred thousandth to hit North America since the continent drifted into a position of hurricane vulnerability.

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

The Chinese know exactly what they are doing, which is to replace us as the sole superpower and then bend the world to their Red will.

For what purpose. What could they possibly obtain from the US othe than a market to sell theihr stuff?

While I don't think Chinese global hegemony is going to happen anytime in the near future, I have to point out that no particular reason is needed. The desire for power, simply for the sake of power, is a perfectly sufficient motive for attempts to eclipse other powers. If they thought they had a reasonable chance to displacing America from the dominant global position, the temptation for the Chinese (or any major power) would be strong.

He was talking about China making the US a colony. Sure in time China will likely become the next hegemon, but that doesn't we are going to be conquered. Britain and the Netherlands are doing just fine as former hegemons.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Mike, I know New Orleans is a wild place, but I think it's the dike system, not the dyke system, that is threatened. Severely.

David K '47

Bob, not Mike.

Apple Computer's Dictionary seems to think either spelling works...

Originally Posted by Apple

dike (also dyke) noun
1 a long wall or embankment built to prevent flooding from the sea. • [often in place names ] a low wall or earthwork serving as a boundary or defense : Offa's Dike. • a causeway. • Geology an intrusion of igneous rock cutting across existing strata. Compare with sill .
2 a ditch or watercourse.

Mr. Saari, am I allowed to use archaic forms? :wink:

Oh most certainly, Mr. Butler. But, I don't think Mr. Kaiser ought to identify you as Mr. Alexander. :twisted:

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

The Chinese know exactly what they are doing, which is to replace us as the sole superpower and then bend the world to their Red will.

For what purpose. What could they possibly obtain from the US othe than a market to sell theihr stuff?

While I don't think Chinese global hegemony is going to happen anytime in the near future, I have to point out that no particular reason is needed. The desire for power, simply for the sake of power, is a perfectly sufficient motive for attempts to eclipse other powers. If they thought they had a reasonable chance to displacing America from the dominant global position, the temptation for the Chinese (or any major power) would be strong.

He was talking about China making the US a colony. Sure in time China will likely become the next hegemon, but that doesn't we are going to be conquered. Britain and the Netherlands are doing just fine as former hegemons.

Britain and the Netherlands (and France, etc) are all part of the same Western culture and civilization, China is not.

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

Britain and the Netherlands (and France, etc) are all part of the same Western culture and civilization, China is not.

Yes, and this matters how?

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by HopefulCynic68

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

The Chinese know exactly what they are doing, which is to replace us as the sole superpower and then bend the world to their Red will.

For what purpose. What could they possibly obtain from the US other than a market to sell their stuff?

While I don't think Chinese global hegemony is going to happen anytime in the near future, I have to point out that no particular reason is needed. The desire for power, simply for the sake of power, is a perfectly sufficient motive for attempts to eclipse other powers. If they thought they had a reasonable chance to displacing America from the dominant global position, the temptation for the Chinese (or any major power) would be strong.

He was talking about China making the US a colony. Sure in time China will likely become the next hegemon, but that doesn't we are going to be conquered. Britain and the Netherlands are doing just fine as former hegemons.

I'm not so certain that China will be the next hegemon. They have a population problem. Their resource to population ratio is in some sense a limitation to growth. They still have their autocratic system of government. This will make it difficult for them to compete, until and unless they finally deal with it, which seems likely during the upcoming crisis era. Like any decently industrialized power, they could put together a solid (and very large) conventional army, but will this make it profitable for them to seize additional territory?

China also has a cultural habit of seeing themselves as the only area of importance in the world. While Western hegemons, upon taking control of Europe, would launch invasions of other "civilizations," China had various reasons not to push into the jungles of Southeast Asia, or the steppes of the grassland nomads. China also has ongoing tensions where past expansionist policies gave her Tibet and areas dominated by Islamic populations. I might perhaps be optimistic. Who knows when an autocratic government might decide that the way out of domestic difficulties is military adventurism?

Right now, China is a huge undeveloped market with lots of cheap labor. If she does develop, she is apt to absorb a lot of oil as we approach peak oil, which will exaggerate that problem. China has a role to play. The West is accustomed, after each wannabe aggressor state falls aside in its quest for dominance, for another to rise. China and the United States are the obvious candidates. Those who wish to extend our own superpower status might be tempted to exaggerate China's quest for superpower status.

I'm not sure military or colonial adventurism is a big win these days. Being an optimist, I'm hoping that nations will drift in towards defensive alliances sufficient to give any aggressor pause. They might also intervene to quash crimes against humanity. Conventional hegemony is apt to be very awkward, for China, or for the United States. I fear the unpleasant results should the United States throw her weight around more than I fear China attempting to throw her weight around.

Although I think of the war on terror akin to WW1, I've come to the conclusion that we are in a 4t because of two major society changing conflicts. Remember that the last 4t ended with a grand ending of WW2. It doesn't have to start with one. Here are my two points,

1- War on Terror. The actual wars overseas is actually less of an influence as compared to how it's reforming our society. Public security overrides individual freedom

2- Oil Crises. As the prices continue to rise, the closer we are to a grand snap in our society. Since the last 4t, our nation has exclusively built itself around the automobile.

Hurricane Katrina shows how badly things can go in a 4T -- particularly early, when social organization is weak or threadbare as it is now. Transport, communications, power, and food supplies, and public order broke down.

This hurricane could have marked the end of the 3T by demonstratig how 'out of it' our current political leadership (GW Bush) is. A war in Iraq with a foundation of falsehood seems to have drawn resources (financial and technical) away from the need to shore up the levees around the world's fourth largest port and the critical area for America's offshore oil.

Global warming made the waters of the Gulf of Mexico unusually warm and fueled the hurricane so that it could wreak the most damage.

My first suggestion for dealing with the energy shortage that results from Katrina: a return for a year or so to the "double-nickel" speed limit on rural freeways -- and forty-five elsewhere. I am well aware that Dubya considers energy conservation tantamount to a commie plot, but I question whether even Big Oil doesn't now see itself as overstretched.

Here in Chicagoland gas prices rose as much as $1/gal after Hurricane Katrina. And yet a survey done by the Metra rail system indicated that gas prices would still have to go considerably higher before most people would give up or even cut back driving. Such a cavalier attitude should make us think that we ourselves are largely to blame for high gas prices. And since all(or at least most) of us have only so much to work with, if we won't cut back on gas, we have to cut back on something else.

If you find you have to follow the news as a matter of survival for yourself or your loved ones, you're in 4T mode.

For months now, we have been treated to Devil's Advocate and Hopeful Cynic's increasingly smug self-satisfaction about the state of the world. To those of us who point out that the Bush Administration and the religious right are out of touch with reality, they reply that we are out of touch with mainstream America. They point giddily to the results of the last few elections as proof of their righteousness--forgetting that the 2000 election was, in fact, stolen in two stages, and that the 2004 re-election of Bush was one of the closest in history. They are significant, of course, because they speak for the Administration, whose line they have both imbibed and refined. Logic means nothing to them. One of them actually challenged some one a few days ago to prove that Bush's policies are increasing inequality. What on earth do you think huge, successive taxes for the rich and an increasing flow of jobs overseas (stimulated further by CAFTA, now) are going to do?????

The problem, of course, is that the United States has to pay an enormous price for shutting its eyes to reality, whatever the resentments in the Red Zone that the Administration and its allies have managed to mobilize. An Administration that thinks government should be dismantled can't plan a war effectively, much less look at the basic needs of the American people. When it creates a Homeland Security Depattment, it does it to cut government, not strengthen it. (The Administration, which opposed the Department in the first place, only reversed course in the fall of 2002 when some one--probably Grover Norquist or Karl Rove--had a great idea. Let's create the Department, but take away the civil service protections of its employees. The Democrats will have to vote against that, and we'll brand them as unpatriotic. It worked. Since then, FEMA has been repeatedly cut and its traditional function abandoned. The results are on display this week.)

The idea that nothing counts except repeating ad inifitum that liberals are idiots seems now to have run its course. The cancellation of Ann Coulter in Tucson is a welcome sign. The danger now--and it's very real--is that the Republicans will draw on their racist constituencies to blame the fate of the poor people of New Orleans on the victims. The temptation may be irresistible. But with an utter failure to respond to the worst natural disaster in 100 years (and maybe ever), gas well over $3.00 a gallon, a very likely new recession, and a hopeless war, Millennials, especially, may be willing to leave the pathetic ideological posturing of the last eight years behind. As a Boomer I reget the mess my generation has made for them; but it's only by overcoming it that their greatness will come out.

David K '47

Dear Mr. Kaiser, I think we shall soon see a celebration of victory of the sort when Gaius Julius Caesar Germanicus (who it must be noted also made his own reality) triumphed in his Victory over the Sea as related by Seutonius.

There is always a willing audience to applaud and to praise a seemingly powerful man. The previous POTUS was surrounded by such creatures, alike in Nature but different in Person.

By January 2006 a "MISSION ACCOMPLISHED" banner may be hung on a Gulf Coast Industrial Gaming Barge and the POTUS (perhaps attired as a croupier on this occasion) will alight and tell us all is well and done. After all compared to the Reform of Eurasia the recent dampness of the South ought to be child's play.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

Dear Mr. Kaiser, I think we shall soon see a celebration of victory of the sort when Gaius Julius Caesar Germanicus (who it must be noted also made his own reality) triumphed in his Victory over the Sea as related by Seutonius.

If you mean the same nutbar I'm assuming you're referring to, I must say that Jay Robinson's portrayal of said nutbar in The Robe and Demetrius and the Gladiators was actually rather tame compared to the truth. But then, what would you expect from movies made back in the Fifties? :wink: