Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

Originally Posted by scott 63

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

I think most people have lost a lot of faith in the federal government.

This sounds more squarely 4Tish. Of course the time from catalyst to nadir is not instantaneous.

Here's the difference. Other than in places that have been directly affected by crises in the past four years - New York, DC, and New Orleans - most of America has had little change personally for them other than perhaps a lethargic economy and more expensive prices at the pump.

I think you're partly right here, except that these crises affected people in the general regions (as opposed to just those metro areas) of the Northeast, Midatlantic, and South. The Midwest also had its mini-crisis when they lost power.

Compare that to any other Fourth TUrning in American history and you will see it doesn't wash. Bacon's Rebellion and King Philip's War in 1675-76 had great impacts on nearly everyone in the Virginia and the New England colonies. In the last crisis most of our Greatest Generation relatives were personally touched by the crisis. I just don't see that happening here, from my reading of the text.

Even if a lot of the NGG wasn't personally affected, what's more important for *them* is that they were nationally affected. I do, however, think that these negative emotions we're glimpsing in pockets now will become more widespread before we can be certain of our turning status.

- -

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Even if a lot of the NGG wasn't personally affected, what's more important for *them* is that they were nationally affected. I do, however, think that these negative emotions we're glimpsing in pockets now will become more widespread before we can be certain of our turning status.

I believe it to be happening right now. And I don't think it was 9-11. It was Katrina.

OK, good for you. Care to offer any reasoning? I don't think Katrina would have been such a blow to the national mood if 9/11 hadn't set the tone. Also, the two in combination have a greater effect than either would alone. Furthermore, when Fitzmas does come, it will be a fitting triumvirate.

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Even if a lot of the NGG wasn't personally affected, what's more important for *them* is that they were nationally affected. I do, however, think that these negative emotions we're glimpsing in pockets now will become more widespread before we can be certain of our turning status.

I believe it to be happening right now. And I don't think it was 9-11. It was Katrina.

OK, good for you. Care to offer any reasoning? I don't think Katrina would have been such a blow to the national mood if 9/11 hadn't set the tone. Also, the two in combination have a greater effect than either would alone. Furthermore, when Fitzmas does come, it will be a fitting triumvirate.

What is Fitzmas?

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Even if a lot of the NGG wasn't personally affected, what's more important for *them* is that they were nationally affected. I do, however, think that these negative emotions we're glimpsing in pockets now will become more widespread before we can be certain of our turning status.

I believe it to be happening right now. And I don't think it was 9-11. It was Katrina.

OK, good for you. Care to offer any reasoning? I don't think Katrina would have been such a blow to the national mood if 9/11 hadn't set the tone. Also, the two in combination have a greater effect than either would alone. Furthermore, when Fitzmas does come, it will be a fitting triumvirate.

What is Fitzmas?

The day (if it ever comes) when Patrick Fitzgerald hands down indictments against members of the Bush Administration.

I was about to the same question about Fitzmas, but will now take a guess. Come Dec. 25, are we likely to see a greatly fizzled out Christmas? This is the only analogy I can think of at present. Is this it?

- -

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Even if a lot of the NGG wasn't personally affected, what's more important for *them* is that they were nationally affected. I do, however, think that these negative emotions we're glimpsing in pockets now will become more widespread before we can be certain of our turning status.

I believe it to be happening right now. And I don't think it was 9-11. It was Katrina.

OK, good for you. Care to offer any reasoning? I don't think Katrina would have been such a blow to the national mood if 9/11 hadn't set the tone. Also, the two in combination have a greater effect than either would alone. Furthermore, when Fitzmas does come, it will be a fitting triumvirate.

I'm sorry if I said something rude. Have you noticed how mean people are to each other these days? I think it has something to do with the immediate gratification of the Internet.

My reading of the Fourth Turning text is that late third turnings are fairly anxious times where society slowly falls apart until a final catalyst forces the society to realize that there is no going back.

You can look at all other Fourth Turnings in United States history and see a similar progression of alarming events that lead to a breaking point.

American citizens by and large gave their leadership a pass on 9/11. They also did so with the Iraq War. They never sought accountability for the government allowing it to happen. But they have sought accountability after Hurricane Katrina. And if Fitzmas does come, it will be this newly acquired desire for action and accountability that will confirm that Americans will no longer give their government a pass.

In the The Book and Theories Of History -> Regeneracy Thread:

Originally Posted by borninthecoldwar

In T4T, S&H say that leadership during the Regeneracy is often mediocre but people are willing to tolerate that. That I would say would be characteristic of the period after 9-11-01. I think people are now much less forgiving of mediocre leadership.

This may have me swinging my vote to We Be 4T. The public's perception of the total incompetence of their current leadership would build gradually during the Cascade until regeneracy is reached. This would surely be evidenced by the sliding poll numbers regarding Bush's performance since 9/11. So what if this cascade is lasting longer than in previous Crises. These things are not tightly programmed and we don't have enough examples to pin down definitive ranges.

Whether Katrina is THE trigger for the Regeneracy, I can't say. It certainly fits the downward spiral in performance and perception but I don't get a sense of doom or of a nationally significant moment from the people I come in contact with. Throw in some more scandals and a, ahem, "recession" and we might have the makin's for a turn around.

Originally Posted by eekelsey

The PATRIOT Act is another story, but even that has been used far more judiciously than I initially thought it would be.

But you can't necessarily know that. The Patriot Act has provisions that forbid that actions taken because of it cannot be revealed. The example of that that I know about is that if a library is subpoenaed to reveal it's lending records that it would be a crime to reveal that. Kinda makes it hard to judge if the gov't is being truthful when it claims that it has never excersized that portion of the law.

--

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

9/11 is a hackneyed catalyst. Yawn.

More hackneyed than John Brown's Raid?

--

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Originally Posted by albatross '82

And let's not forget the wonderful Patriot Act and the color-coded fun of DHS! 8)

I don't think the color code system has really been adequately explained to the American people. When a decision is made to raise the threat level, there are actually different policies that become law. It's a quick way to give DHS the ability to act without the normal bureaucratic holdup. As far as the American people are concerned, it just means "be more vigilant." I'm sure I'm going to get called a neocon for this, but the DHS system isn't as useless as people say it is. The PATRIOT Act is another story, but even that has been used far more judiciously than I initially thought it would be.

Ah yes, you are right. I forget about that sometimes. It's just that a lot of the orange alerts seemed to be politically timed and everything. And notice how there haven't been any for over a year (since Chertoff came in?).

Originally Posted by albatross '82

Originally Posted by eekelsey

Originally Posted by albatross '82

And let's not forget the wonderful Patriot Act and the color-coded fun of DHS! 8)

I don't think the color code system has really been adequately explained to the American people. When a decision is made to raise the threat level, there are actually different policies that become law. It's a quick way to give DHS the ability to act without the normal bureaucratic holdup. As far as the American people are concerned, it just means "be more vigilant." I'm sure I'm going to get called a neocon for this, but the DHS system isn't as useless as people say it is. The PATRIOT Act is another story, but even that has been used far more judiciously than I initially thought it would be.

Ah yes, you are right. I forget about that sometimes. It's just that a lot of the orange alerts seemed to be politically timed and everything. And notice how there haven't been any for over a year (since Chertoff came in?).

Chertoff replaced the color codes with warnings targeted to specific targets, such as NYC subways. All for the good, in my not very informed view. :wink:

Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas

9/11 is a hackneyed catalyst. Yawn.

Maybe there's a little 9/11 fatigue these days? Or that "disaster fatigue" they've been talking about? "Man, I'm so sick of hearing about all these people dying!" How 3T! :lol:

- -

Originally Posted by jeffw

Originally Posted by eekelsey

The PATRIOT Act is another story, but even that has been used far more judiciously than I initially thought it would be.

But you can't necessarily know that. The Patriot Act has provisions that forbid that actions taken because of it cannot be revealed. The example of that that I know about is that if a library is subpoenaed to reveal it's lending records that it would be a crime to reveal that. Kinda makes it hard to judge if the gov't is being truthful when it claims that it has never excersized that portion of the law.

The Patriot Act is being used (and likely abused) widely if not universally in federal criminal investigations of all kinds. There is virtually no oversight. It's a shame that Americans are so stupid, fearful, and weak that they're willing to forego so many liberties, and so much privacy, to the state. If history is any guide, the boomer-(re)created police and surveillance state will survive until the next 2t, only to be undone by the grassroots political agitation of young prophets, the formal push for reform on the part of homelander politicians, and the inability of millenial elites to resist.

The best hope for the last remaining Americans that give a shit about civil liberties is that this 4t brings an internal crisis that breaks the back of federal government authority (returning it to its original and limited function of protecting the country from foreign invasion, and maintaining free trade between the states) and leads to the devolution of power to states and localities. Given the ongoing rift between liberals and conservatives in this country about the role of the federal government, returning to our roots as a loose federation may be the best workable compromise for all. It's certainly the best compromise for people who actually care passionately about their political and cultural values (which is to say liberals and conservatives). A "grand bargain" in which liberals and conservatives make significant substantive concessions so that the broad center and a strong federal government can prevail is in my mind close to the least optimal (likely) outcome of this fourth turning. Let Vermont be a green social democracy, and let the south preserve its cultural heritage. Let Americans of different regions and different faiths and political persuasions agree to disagree.

Liberal died a generation ago. Conservatism is dying today. And devolution is the last best hope we have of preventing America from becoming a bland, suburban, corporatist quasi-police state from coast to coast, a tyranny of the purple states over the reds and blues (who you'll note are responsible for almost everything interesting about America). Redistricting "reform" may actually make this tyranny more likely by creating more centrist purple districts and marginalizing red and blue ones. If the Clintons or Giulianis lead the "regeneracy" it will be the death knell for regional political and cultural diversity in this country. I think the Washington elites of both parties don't want Vermont to be Vermont or the south to be the south. What they want is a strong, post-ideological federal government run like a corporation by a revolving door of bipartisan Ivy League educated technocratic elites bent on making themselves Important and Necessary, advancing their own financial interests with taxpayer dollars, and diminishing political and cultural diversity out in the country. This is ultimately what they want to see on the global level as well. In their vision of the future, we'll all be one big happy family of anesthetized suburban consumers. Without devolution, citizenship and voting will truly no longer matter.

I hope the left and right don't back down, and allow the center to prevail, but rather demand their own private Idahos. I hope the urbans and rurals win this 4t, not the suburbs and corporations. I hope the Roberts Court goes moonbat federalist crazy, and lets Washington (figuratively) burn to the ground.

I just received the following email which is apparently circulating around Capitol Hill.

"More Grist for the TreasonGate Rumor Mill



Note: This is an e-mail circulating around Capitol Hill that was forwarded to us by a source wishing to remain anonymous (no, not Scooter Libby, for God's sake). We can only offer it up as rumor and speculation, but it certainly is interesting rumor and speculation at that! Much of it is consistent with other corroborating leaks, except for two bombshell points: that Colin Powell spilled the beans on Cheney, and that Cheney's lawyer is negotiating with the U.S. Prosecutor's office.

Here it is, exactly as BuzzFlash received it:

"below, some extremely sensitive information about the impending conclusion of the valerie plame investigations. the sources include two senior members of senate and key staffers; counsel for individuals that have been called before the grand jury; and two journalists taking a lead position in investigating the case. the following represents a composite of the information from those sources.

plamegate coming to conclusion. the investigation has focused mostly closely on vice president cheney and his staff, as well as us ambassador to the un (and former undersecretary of state for arms control) john bolton and his staff. we are told that eight indictments have already prepared, with the possibility of another ten. these indictments include senior white house staff, most notably vice president cheney's chief of staff scooter libby, fred flights (special assistant to john bolton), and--very surprisingly--national security adviser steve hadley. apparently, libby and hadley have both been told by their lawyers to expect indictments. the indictment of senior bush political advisor karl rove seems highly probable.

most critically, a plea bargain process has evidently been opened with vice president cheney's lawyer. that does not mean that an indictment is coming. but i've some critical background around the issue.

in the past several days, former secretary of state colin powell had a meeting with senator john mccain (R-AZ), primarily about the mccain-sponsored amendment on inserting a rider prohibiting torture onto the us defense budget (a bill which powell has himself been lobbying heavily for, against objections of president bush).

during the meeting, powell recounted to the senator that he had traveled on air force one with bush and cheney, and brought to their attention a classified memorandum about the issue of whether there was indeed a transaction inolving niger and yellow cake uranium. the document included ambassador joe wilson's involvement and identified his wife, valerie plame, as a covert agent. the memorandum further stated that this information was secret. powell told mccain that he showed that memo only to two people--president and vice president. according to powell, cheney fixated on the wilson/plame connection, and plame's status.

powell testified about this exchange in great length to the grand jury investigating the plame case. according to sources close to the case, powell appeared convinced that the vice president played a focal role in disclosing plame's undercover status.

in his conversation with mccain, powell felt that--at a minimum--there would be a serious shakeup at national security council as a consequence. in particular, vice president cheney would no longer hold a pivotal role in us national security affairs. powell apparently did not discuss the potential of a cheney resignation.

lead prosecutor patrick fitzgerald has apparently been looking at the precedent of formerly indicted nixon vice president spiro agnew. this shows the likely path, because addressing executive immunity and privilege questions would necessarily begin start with a plea-bargain deal that would entail a resignation.
this is all likely to occur within the next week. 28 october (next friday) is the last day of the grand jury, and no requests have been made to extend their session. the investigator is expecting to wrap up by then.

there are enormous implication for what would be the biggest white house shakeup since the iran-contra scandal in the reagan era. president bush's approval rating at 39% has already led to a significant decrease in policy efficacy with key legislators in congress (which i've already discussed at length elsewhere). i'll spin out the broader policy implications when i have some time to write at greater length, but i wanted to get this out immediately.


one interesting point though--it is worth noting that a parade of senior republican senators have evidently been privately pushing mccain to lobby to be cheney's replacement. senator lindsey graham (R-SC) has also been mentioned. meanwhile, the white house has already been developing countermeasures--notably including senior white house officials privately voicing president bush's disappointment in karl rove's involvement in the case, calling it 'misconduct.' an urgent search for a rove replacement is already underway."

This makes some sense. Today, as some of you may know (see buzzflash.com), Powell's former chief of staff, Larry Wilkerson, with whom I am friendly, published a blistering attack on Cheney and Rumsfeld and the Administration. He says Powell was unhappy that he did it; but it could be an opening salvo in a big war.

And I must point out that with all the ridiculous stories told by Rove and Libby about how they heard Plame's name ("from a reporter I can't recall,") it would make a hell of a lot of sense if they had heard it from Cheney.

Couldn't happen to a nicer guy.

David K '47

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: The Potomac Ptolemies

Originally Posted by Mr. Steve Sailer

• 4. Jeb Bush's politically ambitious son George P. Bush gets his marriage to that blonde annulled on the grounds of non-dynasticism and marries Chelsea Clinton.
  
  5. George P. and Chelsea succeed to the White House as co-Presidents in the mode of England's King William and Queen Mary (fulfilling her mother's deepest wish).
  
  6. Chelsea gives birth to a son and daughter, who, in the fullness of time, follow their parents on the throne.
  
  7. The royal siblings marry and produce a
  son and a daughter.
  
  8. Repeat forever... or at least until inbreeding depression reduces the co-Presidents to drooling cretins and the Secret Service auctions off the Presidency to the highest bidder.

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: The Potomac Ptolemies

Originally Posted by Mr. Steve Sailer

• 4. Jeb Bush's politically ambitious son George P. Bush gets his marriage to that blonde annulled on the grounds of non-dynasticism and marries Chelsea Clinton.
  
  5. George P. and Chelsea succeed to the White House as co-Presidents in the mode of England's King William and Queen Mary (fulfilling her mother's deepest wish).
  
  6. Chelsea gives birth to a son and daughter, who, in the fullness of time, follow their parents on the throne.
  
  7. The royal siblings marry and produce a
  son and a daughter.
  
  8. Repeat forever... or at least until inbreeding depression reduces the co-Presidents to drooling cretins and the Secret Service auctions off the Presidency to the highest bidder.

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

To which my wife says, "Ha! Ha!"

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: The Potomac Ptolemies

Originally Posted by Mr. Steve Sailer

• 4. Jeb Bush's politically ambitious son George P. Bush gets his marriage to that blonde annulled on the grounds of non-dynasticism and marries Chelsea Clinton.
  
  5. George P. and Chelsea succeed to the White House as co-Presidents in the mode of England's King William and Queen Mary (fulfilling her mother's deepest wish).
  
  6. Chelsea gives birth to a son and daughter, who, in the fullness of time, follow their parents on the throne.
  
  7. The royal siblings marry and produce a
  son and a daughter.
  
  8. Repeat forever... or at least until inbreeding depression reduces the co-Presidents to drooling cretins and the Secret Service auctions off the Presidency to the highest bidder.

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

I would think they could sustain America's greatness somewhat longer if they were willing to cross breed Roosevelt and Kennedy bloodlines.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow: The Potomac Ptolemies

Originally Posted by Mr. Steve Sailer

• 4. Jeb Bush's politically ambitious son George P. Bush gets his marriage to that blonde annulled on the grounds of non-dynasticism and marries Chelsea Clinton.
  
  5. George P. and Chelsea succeed to the White House as co-Presidents in the mode of England's King William and Queen Mary (fulfilling her mother's deepest wish).
  
  6. Chelsea gives birth to a son and daughter, who, in the fullness of time, follow their parents on the throne.
  
  7. The royal siblings marry and produce a
  son and a daughter.
  
  8. Repeat forever... or at least until inbreeding depression reduces the co-Presidents to drooling cretins and the Secret Service auctions off the Presidency to the highest bidder.

:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:

I would think they could sustain America's greatness somewhat longer if they were willing to cross breed Roosevelt and Kennedy bloodlines.

Gee, I dunno. I went out on a date with a Roosevelt gal about 10 years ago... and she didn't strike me as particularly wise 8) .

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Looking at elections isn't a bad idea. I'm looking at issues, and who is willing to address them.

If we still be 3T (which is what we are discussing here) then the WOT is merely a tempest in a teapot and not worth of serious effort... Looking at how the politicians were blindsided in the last two crises, I suspect blindsided is what will happen this time too.

Oh, darn!

• DeLay Smile May Foil Democrat Campaign Ads
  
  - By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press Writer
  Thursday, October 20, 2005
  (10-20) 18:20 PDT WASHINGTON, (AP) --
  
  Why is Tom DeLay smiling? After all, he's been indicted. Forced out of his job as House majority leader. And called into court for fingerprinting and a mugshot like a common criminal.
  
  Answer: A photo of DeLay grinning from ear to ear doesn't pack quite the punch in a Democratic attack ad as one that looks more like the mugshot of, say, actor Hugh Grant.
  
  Note the House of Representatives security pin on DeLay's lapel.
  
  He looks in the photo like a proud member of Congress who might just have won the lottery, not one indicted on charges of money laundering. The photo looks like it could have been taken anywhere.
  
  And that was just the point.
  
  Democrats nationally are already sounding as if they'll make DeLay the poster boy for bad Republican behavior in next year's elections, when every House seat and a third of those in the Senate are up for grabs.

Scandal-mongering... the last refuge of liberal Democrats with no relevant ideas left in the cupboard.

Originally Posted by Devil's Advocate

Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Looking at elections isn't a bad idea. I'm looking at issues, and who is willing to address them.

If we still be 3T (which is what we are discussing here) then the WOT is merely a tempest in a teapot and not worth of serious effort... Looking at how the politicians were blindsided in the last two crises, I suspect blindsided is what will happen this time too.

Oh, darn!

• DeLay Smile May Foil Democrat Campaign Ads
  
  - By LAURIE KELLMAN, Associated Press Writer
  Thursday, October 20, 2005
  (10-20) 18:20 PDT WASHINGTON, (AP) --
  
  Why is Tom DeLay smiling? After all, he's been indicted. Forced out of his job as House majority leader. And called into court for fingerprinting and a mugshot like a common criminal.
  
  Answer: A photo of DeLay grinning from ear to ear doesn't pack quite the punch in a Democratic attack ad as one that looks more like the mugshot of, say, actor Hugh Grant.
  
  Note the House of Representatives security pin on DeLay's lapel.
  
  He looks in the photo like a proud member of Congress who might just have won the lottery, not one indicted on charges of money laundering. The photo looks like it could have been taken anywhere.
  
  And that was just the point.
  
  Democrats nationally are already sounding as if they'll make DeLay the poster boy for bad Republican behavior in next year's elections, when every House seat and a third of those in the Senate are up for grabs.

Scandal-mongering... the last refuge of liberal Democrats with no relevant ideas left in the cupboard.

I can't believe everyone is so upset that the former house leader has been indicted on money laundering and conspiracy charges. I mean they're just partisan Democrats with no ideas. They're criminalizing politics. And Joe Wilson is a liar. That's the real issue here. Not lying to a grand jury. I mean Clinton did it and got away with it. FDR...I mean sheesh, folks.

About time for the Democrats to refocus?

Young Democrats Sharpen Tactics Against Old Rivals

To hopefully start a discussion...

Originally Posted by Shailagh Murray of the Washington Post

As part of the new approach, House and Senate Democrats are devising an alternative agenda of key policies. Ryan is pushing proposals aimed at drastically reducing the number of abortions over the coming decade by offering support and services to pregnant women. Others are crafting a plan for reducing U.S. dependence on imported oil by using more domestic agricultural products, an approach that would have significant appeal to Midwestern voters.

"We can't be Dr. No to everything Republicans do," said Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). "We have to provide our own positive ideas."

The rise of the new breed, including Rep. Rahm Emanuel (Ill.), the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and Barack Obama (Ill.), the Senate's only African American and the keynote speaker at the 2004 Democratic National Convention, marks a generational divide in a party long dominated by Northeastern liberals and Southern conservatives.

This isn't the Regeneracy on a plate, but I've seen so little out of the Democrats that I'm pleased to see something.