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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 429







Post#10701 at 02-09-2006 11:34 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59
Quote Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons
Was that in "Gabriel's Rebellion"? Or was that from DS9?
It was DS9. Wasn't that the one where Capt. Sisko go back to High-era
San Francisco in the year 2024? I don't believe there was an evil dictator in that one, but interestingly enough there was a convincing civil-rights-movement-like class struggle... complete with an MLK-for-the-homeless figure, Gabriel Bell, whom Capt. Sisko must impersonate after inadvertantly getting the character killed.
Ah. That's right. Thanks.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#10702 at 02-10-2006 06:45 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Advert Arrow's for C.A.R.R.H.A.E.

The ad was paid for by the conservative Progress for America Voter Fund, which will air it on network and cable stations in Minnesota over the next week. The Washington-based interest group wouldn't reveal the amount it spent, but spokesman Stuart Roy said the average television viewer should see it 10 times a hefty number as ad rotation goes. :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:


Quote Originally Posted by Mpls. [i
Star-Tribune[/i]]Marty Kaplan, associate dean at the University of Southern California's Annenberg School for Communication, suspects the ad is focused more on fortifying supporters of the war than on converting opponents.
:arrow: :arrow: :arrow:







Post#10703 at 02-10-2006 07:10 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Progressive conservation

The Young Gaddafi hearts the Young Bush


Reform!
Quote Originally Posted by BBC
Gaddafi son backs Bush on reform.
Minds think alike! :arrow: :arrow: :arrow:







Post#10704 at 02-15-2006 04:37 AM by Linus [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 1,731]
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The New Republic says 3t.

Quote Originally Posted by Martin Edlund
Abraham Lincoln's long limbs and saturnine features have lately been stretched out on the psychotherapist's couch. The cover to last October's Atlantic Monthly considered "Lincoln's Great Depression" (an excerpt from Joshua Wolf Shenk's book Lincoln's Melancholy). Applying modern clinical diagnoses to the historical record, Shenk found him to be a severe manic depressive with suicidal tendencies. Peeking into his medicine cabinet, he noted a pharmacopeia of opiates, sarsaparilla, cocaine, and mercury pills. Last month, a lavishly promoted three-hour film on the History Channel (seen by some 2.8 million households) pressed the case further, dwelling on Lincoln's premonitions of his own death, his inferiority complex, and his likely--at least in Gore Vidal's view--homosexuality.

It is into this thicket of psychobabble that John Ford's Young Mr. Lincoln strides--long-legged, loose-limbed, and a hundred feet tall. The 1939 film is being issued for the first time on DVD today by the Criterion Collection. Ford's portrait of the man couldn't be more at odds with the present one. Warming up for his role as Tom Joad in Ford's Grapes of Wrath the next year, Henry Fonda played Lincoln as Honest Abe rather than Great Emancipator. In fact, the film is less a biopic than a series of character studies drawn in the loose, quick lines of folk legend. And it's as much a reflection of Ford's age as the neurotic Lincoln is a reflection of our own...

...It's this composite nature, the culture and myth that accumulate in him, that puts Lincoln beyond the reach of psychoanalysts and their pat labels. It could be that every era manipulates Lincoln's image to suit its needs. The '30s certainly did. But it speaks to the small-mindedness of our celebrity-obsessed culture that we focus on his faults to the exclusion of so much else. His neurosis may have been one of his aspects--but only one. What the '30s sought in Lincoln was something about the manifold nature of America itself. "[T]he Lincoln image ... is one almost providentially made for our present crisis," wrote Max Lerner, reviewing a surfeit of new Lincoln books in the pages of this magazine in 1939. "It is of a Lincoln who was first of all a deeply human being, with the rich earth flavor and the gusto out of which a culture is made." We would do well to remember that Lincoln too, and to reclaim some of his gusto for our own culture.
"Jan, cut the crap."

"It's just a donut."







Post#10705 at 02-16-2006 06:03 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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I think the New Republic is spot on in this case.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#10706 at 02-16-2006 06:37 PM by Linus [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 1,731]
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Yes, but I am the only one who senses a real foreboding?

The mood has changed - darkened - not only in recent months, but in recent weeks.

It feels as though the next shoe is about to drop, and it feels like a lead boot, six miles wide.
"Jan, cut the crap."

"It's just a donut."







Post#10707 at 02-16-2006 07:12 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Linus
Yes, but I am the only one who senses a real foreboding?

The mood has changed - darkened - not only in recent months, but in recent weeks.

It feels as though the next shoe is about to drop, and it feels like that shoe is a steel boot, six miles wide.
I felt it coming on last summer and it has lingered every since. If I had to name it, I'd call it Phourth Phatigue: The dymanics behind the Phony Fourth (Phourth Turning) end-phase of the Long Boom 3T are faltering. The last Phourth lasted three-and-a-half years and ended abruptly in the middle of 1920. But this time it is occurring at the very end of 3T, rather than in the middle like last time.

Our society's 3T mood is now very sour because of the overflowing of lead cohorts into their next-elder life phases and because of the institutional decay caused by over 40 years of rising individualism. We are no longer a community. We are rather a conglomeration of empowered individuals.

As has been noted here of late, the Silent's influence, though still substantial, is waning rapidly. The Boomers will probably achieve peak political power with E2K6, and their leading edge Late War Babies, and even the whole Aquarian wave, see that the last act of their life's play is dawning. I know my '44er parents are thinking of little else.

Leading Atari Xer's are, in my view, pioneering the Nomad Midlife Crisis. The NMC will be the opposite of what we have come to expect out of a midlife crisis because the theme first set for it was created by the Silent almost four decades ago, an Artist gen. This time, instead of a fortysomething saying "I've played by the rules all of my life and been dutiful, but is this all there is?!?", we'll soon hear, "I have played by my own rules and been a free agent all of my life, but is this all there is?!?". In my view, Atari's will probably play a key role in the cascade as, like the Lost before them in their own way, they will realize that they all can't be lottery winners and that the huge pile of debt that has accumulated (by them individually and by society collectively) has to be paid somehow.

And we now have Millies just pouring into the twentysomething bracket. I have not heard much in the MSM about what effects this is having, but I am sure they are just as profound as the those of the older gens.

I think the 3T has been in a diseased condition for a few years now. Well, this past summer, it got hospitalized and is on life support. We are now just waiting for the inevitable terminal phase to begin and for the new Baby Turning (think of Rankin-Bass' "Baby New Year") to be born. Then, in as little as several months to as long as a few years, the 3T will be brain dead and the 4T will start walking and talking. The regeneracy will have arrived.

But for now, I stand by sig line below as no longer being prophetic. It is now up-to-date. :shock:
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#10708 at 02-16-2006 09:47 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons
Quote Originally Posted by Linus
Yes, but I am the only one who senses a real foreboding?

The mood has changed - darkened - not only in recent months, but in recent weeks.

It feels as though the next shoe is about to drop, and it feels like that shoe is a steel boot, six miles wide.
... I think the 3T has been in a diseased condition for a few years now. Well, this past summer, it got hospitalized and is on life support. We are now just waiting for the inevitable terminal phase to begin and for the new Baby Turning (think of Rankin-Bass' "Baby New Year") to be born. Then, in as little as several months to as long as a few years, the 3T will be brain dead and the 4T will start walking and talking. The regeneracy will have arrived.

But for now, I stand by sig line below as no longer being prophetic. It is now up-to-date. :shock:
I think the real tip-off is the acknowledgement of the mood change by the lay public. Even the vacuous are starting to get nervous.We still need a push, tough. It may be that the big issues (9/11 and Katrina) will get overshadowed by a pipsqueak event that, nonetheless, is the right trigger at the right time.

But I think you're both right. It can't be far away now.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#10709 at 02-16-2006 10:44 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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With the Phony Fourth coming at the end of our 3T, rather than the middle, do you suppose that our 4T-for the lay public-be less of a surprise than last time around?







Post#10710 at 02-17-2006 12:54 AM by Roadbldr '59 [at Vancouver, Washington joined Jul 2001 #posts 8,275]
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Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
With the Phony Fourth coming at the end of our 3T, rather than the middle, do you suppose that our 4T-for the lay public-be less of a surprise than last time around?
A better question is:

If a Phony Fourth comes at the end of a 3T... is it really Phony??? :idea: IOW, in 20 years will people remember, say, Peak Oil as being the Catalyst which started it all, or 9.11? I still say the latter.
"Better hurry. There's a storm coming. His storm!!!" :-O -Abigail Freemantle, "The Stand" by Stephen King







Post#10711 at 02-17-2006 03:30 AM by Linus [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 1,731]
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I'm not sure I accept the idea of a single catalyst. A number of pivotal events shaped the beginning of the American Revolution, and the momentum had arguably been building for years if not decades. Likewise the Civil War and Great Depression. The mood in 1928 was not what it was in 1922. I think 9/11 was one in a series of events that would usher in a new era. There was a disputed election in 2000 (that may as much as anything come to define these times politically), the dot com crash and corporate scandals, as well as 9/11, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, Katrina, and a number of other less important events that may be seen as pivotal.
"Jan, cut the crap."

"It's just a donut."







Post#10712 at 02-17-2006 03:30 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Quote Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59
Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
With the Phony Fourth coming at the end of our 3T, rather than the middle, do you suppose that our 4T-for the lay public-be less of a surprise than last time around?
A better question is:

If a Phony Fourth comes at the end of a 3T... is it really Phony??? :idea: IOW, in 20 years will people remember, say, Peak Oil as being the Catalyst which started it all, or 9.11? I still say the latter.
My name for it is 'false regeneracy.' September 11th had enough emotional impact to induce a major change in policy that might have addressed major issues. If the majority party had put forth a plan that addressed underlying causes and united the nation and the world, we might have been in a true Fourth at this point. As it happened, they did not ask for sacrifice, but asked for lots of Christmas spending to stimulate the economy. They initially refused to consider addressing underlying causes, as this would be giving in to terror. The overall meme was 'sole superpower,' where I suspect the correct meme will involve a global perspective. They did a bunch of things they likely thought wise, but with 20 20 hindsight is perceived by a large portion of the people as badly flawed.

Ultimately, the question is whether the plans put in place are working. If not, we need another set of plans, another regeneracy.

September 11th was a catalyst. A very memorable catalyst. Peak Oil is an underlying issue. There is a huge difference. September 11th might be primarily tied to Islamic neo fascism. Katrina might be tied to excessive cuts in safety nets and corrupt or inefficient crony government. There are lots of other scandals which might act as minor catalysts, again linked to the problems with crony capitalism.

But thus far none of our catalysts, major or minor, point directly to peak oil. Lots of people are aware of peak oil. Many a major or minor catalyst spikes oil prices, but thus far peak oil hasn't had a spectacular catalyst which puts it directly on center stage. Until that happens, Roadbldr's guess that September 11th is apt to be the major marker in the high school history books is a good one.







Post#10713 at 02-17-2006 08:38 AM by Mikebert [at Kalamazoo MI joined Jul 2001 #posts 4,502]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
September 11th had enough emotional impact to induce a major change in policy
Don't you think there have been major changes in policy? GOP control of government for the first time in half a century, the new doctrine of "premptive war", warrantless spying on Americans, official condoning of torture?

If the majority party had put forth a plan that addressed underlying causes and united the nation and the world, we might have been in a true Fourth at this point.
Exactly what plan did the winning side put forth that united the nation in The Wars of the Roses, The Glorious Revolution, The American Revolution, the Civil War? Didn't both sides remain partisan and one of them simply win in these crises?

And even in the last Crisis, one side definitely lost. Maybe in this crisis our side is going to lose.

They initially refused to consider addressing underlying causes, as this would be giving in to terror.
Here you are assuming that 911 and the WOT, like Peak Oil is a problem to be solved. Perhaps 911 is the solution to a long-standing problem. How does one turn back the burgeoning welfare state? By taking advantage of 911 to consolidate Republican control of government and steer policy in ways that feed Republican constituencies at the expense of Democratic ones.

Ultimately, the question is whether the plans put in place are working. If not, we need another set of plans, another regeneracy.
We should get an answer this fall and in 2008. If the Republicans fail to hang on to their power, then we will probably start over again. But if the GOP stay in power, and win in 2008, then 911 looks very much like the catalyst and the structural change will be a new Republican order.







Post#10714 at 02-17-2006 09:01 AM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
... Ultimately, the question is whether the plans put in place are working. If not, we need another set of plans, another regeneracy.
We should get an answer this fall and in 2008. If the Republicans fail to hang on to their power, then we will probably start over again. But if the GOP stay in power, and win in 2008, then 911 looks very much like the catalyst and the structural change will be a new Republican order.
As much as I hope to the contrary, Mike may be right, and the GOP may be in the drivers seat for a while. Of course, how their 'solution' is regarded 30 years from now will determine how well their solution translaes into a legacy, but I expect to be either dead or nearing that point by then. It'll be up to the Millies and Homies to make of it what they will. Xer fate will already be determined, I'm afraid.

I expect that a hard crash for the Boomers would be taken as a warning, as the now young advance in age, but like I said, I won't be here to see it.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#10715 at 02-17-2006 11:55 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons
As has been noted here of late, the Silent's influence, though still substantial, is waning rapidly. The Boomers will probably achieve peak political power with E2K6, and their leading edge Late War Babies, and even the whole Aquarian wave, see that the last act of their life's play is dawning. I know my '44er parents are thinking of little else.

Leading Atari Xer's are, in my view, pioneering the Nomad Midlife Crisis. The NMC will be the opposite of what we have come to expect out of a midlife crisis because the theme first set for it was created by the Silent almost four decades ago, an Artist gen. This time, instead of a fortysomething saying "I've played by the rules all of my life and been dutiful, but is this all there is?!?", we'll soon hear, "I have played by my own rules and been a free agent all of my life, but is this all there is?!?". In my view, Atari's will probably play a key role in the cascade as, like the Lost before them in their own way, they will realize that they all can't be lottery winners and that the huge pile of debt that has accumulated (by them individually and by society collectively) has to be paid somehow.

And we now have Millies just pouring into the twentysomething bracket. I have not heard much in the MSM about what effects this is having, but I am sure they are just as profound as the those of the older gens.
Some notes:

1. the Silent are dropping like flies. I am on a Jefferson Airplane mailing list, and literally every week at least one obit crosses the list for another second-wave Silent rocker who has bit the dust.

Already this year, Wilson Pickett, Lou Rawls, Richard Pryor...

2. How, in your opinion, are the Atari's not settled? How are you personally not settled, Sean? I am just curious. The guy I work with whose in this bracket (b 1969) is definitely not settled. He still lives as any 24 year old would - rents. But many, including those in my own wave, are investing in homes and having kids (four born in my tiny office this year)...so, define settling down, or having a Nomad MidLife Crisis for me. I am interested.

3. As for Mills, they are mostly still in school. My 1981-born ex is still in school - getting a masters. If I go through Friendster, most of the post 81 set are attending higher education somewhere. We haven't hired any at work yet. The way it seems to go is that the CEOs of the companies I write about are all visionary Boomers. The CFOs, PR people - they are all Xers. I do believe that some of the baby geniuses are starting to surface in the R&D departments though.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#10716 at 02-17-2006 03:58 PM by Neisha '67 [at joined Jul 2001 #posts 2,227]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas
3. As for Mills, they are mostly still in school. My 1981-born ex is still in school - getting a masters. If I go through Friendster, most of the post 81 set are attending higher education somewhere. We haven't hired any at work yet. The way it seems to go is that the CEOs of the companies I write about are all visionary Boomers. The CFOs, PR people - they are all Xers. I do believe that some of the baby geniuses are starting to surface in the R&D departments though.
That's my observation as well. Using my office as an example, we're hiring our first Millie this summer, a law student summer intern. She's an '82 cohort who is only in her first year of law school. The other intern is, I believe, a '79 cohort Xer who is also in her first year. Everyone else in my office is an Xer or a Boomer and, even though we have three openings right now, I don't see that changing as all three jobs require at least a masters degree or a JD *and* work experience. And we're young by law office standards.

My husband works for adidas, which is pretty much an all Xer cast of thousands. Not many Boomers or Millies there, other than a small handful at the very highest (global upper management) and lowest (file clerk/messenger) levels.







Post#10717 at 02-17-2006 04:30 PM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Neisha '67
Quote Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas
3. As for Mills, they are mostly still in school. My 1981-born ex is still in school - getting a masters. If I go through Friendster, most of the post 81 set are attending higher education somewhere. We haven't hired any at work yet. The way it seems to go is that the CEOs of the companies I write about are all visionary Boomers. The CFOs, PR people - they are all Xers. I do believe that some of the baby geniuses are starting to surface in the R&D departments though.
That's my observation as well. Using my office as an example, we're hiring our first Millie this summer, a law student summer intern. She's an '82 cohort who is only in her first year of law school. The other intern is, I believe, a '79 cohort Xer who is also in her first year. Everyone else in my office is an Xer or a Boomer and, even though we have three openings right now, I don't see that changing as all three jobs require at least a masters degree or a JD *and* work experience. And we're young by law office standards.

My husband works for adidas, which is pretty much an all Xer cast of thousands. Not many Boomers or Millies there, other than a small handful at the very highest (global upper management) and lowest (file clerk/messenger) levels.
Yeah I am the youngest editor, and considering my age - I'll be 27 this year - that tends to wash with the generational divide. There is another editor one year older than me, and most everyone else is clustered in this tiny 1968-73 time frame in terms of age...I use years because, well, age keeps changing.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#10718 at 02-17-2006 08:15 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas
Quote Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons
As has been noted here of late, the Silent's influence, though still substantial, is waning rapidly. The Boomers will probably achieve peak political power with E2K6, and their leading edge Late War Babies, and even the whole Aquarian wave, see that the last act of their life's play is dawning. I know my '44er parents are thinking of little else.

Leading Atari Xer's are, in my view, pioneering the Nomad Midlife Crisis. The NMC will be the opposite of what we have come to expect out of a midlife crisis because the theme first set for it was created by the Silent almost four decades ago, an Artist gen. This time, instead of a fortysomething saying "I've played by the rules all of my life and been dutiful, but is this all there is?!?", we'll soon hear, "I have played by my own rules and been a free agent all of my life, but is this all there is?!?". In my view, Atari's will probably play a key role in the cascade as, like the Lost before them in their own way, they will realize that they all can't be lottery winners and that the huge pile of debt that has accumulated (by them individually and by society collectively) has to be paid somehow.

And we now have Millies just pouring into the twentysomething bracket. I have not heard much in the MSM about what effects this is having, but I am sure they are just as profound as the those of the older gens.
Some notes:

1. the Silent are dropping like flies. I am on a Jefferson Airplane mailing list, and literally every week at least one obit crosses the list for another second-wave Silent rocker who has bit the dust.

Already this year, Wilson Pickett, Lou Rawls, Richard Pryor...
No argument there. As I said, their influence is waning rapidly.

Quote Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas
2. How, in your opinion, are the Atari's not settled? How are you personally not settled, Sean? I am just curious. The guy I work with whose in this bracket (b 1969) is definitely not settled. He still lives as any 24 year old would - rents. But many, including those in my own wave, are investing in homes and having kids (four born in my tiny office this year)...so, define settling down, or having a Nomad MidLife Crisis for me. I am interested.
Just what I wrote. Xer's play by their own rules. They are better than any extant generation at gaming the system, at least within their local social context (e.g., job). They're not big on loyalty at any large level. They take big risks (this alleged "settling down" by buying a house these days looks more like speculation to me -- negatively amortized, interest-only ARM's? Holy Cow!), and so forth and so on. I also know several Late Joneser women who are freaking out about the biological clock thing and bemoaning their tardiness in getting serious.

A "coming to Jesus" moment (so-to-speak) is on the horizon for many of us, just as it came for many of the Silent from the late 60's to the early 80's. Just as they chafed under oppression of the inner-world from their younger days, we will suffer from neglect of the outer-world from the same. Free agency and Tarantino will likely give way to community-shoring and a 21st century Rockwell.

Quote Originally Posted by Mary Fitzmas
3. As for Mills, they are mostly still in school. My 1981-born ex is still in school - getting a masters. If I go through Friendster, most of the post 81 set are attending higher education somewhere. We haven't hired any at work yet. The way it seems to go is that the CEOs of the companies I write about are all visionary Boomers. The CFOs, PR people - they are all Xers. I do believe that some of the baby geniuses are starting to surface in the R&D departments though.
Yeah, we had one Millie in the office once (of hundreds of people) and she got laid off. You may have given the answer to "Where have all the Millies gone?": School.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#10719 at 02-17-2006 11:31 PM by Neisha '67 [at joined Jul 2001 #posts 2,227]
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Lately, I've been wondering, where have all the Boomers gone? About 10 years ago, I used to have to compete with Boomers for jobs. Now, they are about 40 percent of my office and dropping. When they leave, they get replaced by a cheaper, more efficient, and less high-maintenence Xer. So, where to they all end up? (In the example of my workplace, they generally quit without lining up anything, because they get tired of working with other people.)

I don't think the Millies have gone anywhere. They just haven't arrived as yet. Their core is still in high school.







Post#10720 at 02-18-2006 10:24 AM by Uzi [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 2,254]
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Quote Originally Posted by Peter Gibbons
A "coming to Jesus" moment (so-to-speak) is on the horizon for many of us, just as it came for many of the Silent from the late 60's to the early 80's. Just as they chafed under oppression of the inner-world from their younger days, we will suffer from neglect of the outer-world from the same. Free agency and Tarantino will likely give way to community-shoring and a 21st century Rockwell.
I think so. Once the core Xers (that 68-73 set I mentioned before) start hitting middle age, then the culture will probably adapt a sober, Rockwellian poise. It seems the logical escape hatch.
"It's easy to grin, when your ship's come in, and you've got the stock market beat. But the man who's worth while is the man who can smile when his pants are too tight in the seat." Judge Smails, Caddyshack.

"Every man with a bellyful of the classics is an enemy of the human race." Henry Miller.

1979 - Generation Perdu







Post#10721 at 02-18-2006 11:02 AM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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02-18-2006, 11:02 AM #10721
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Would someone go check the breaker panel?

Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Alan Bock
The great but underappreciated American essayist Albert J. Nock, who died in 1945 after completing one of the great autobiographical accomplishments of the past century in Memoirs of a Superfluous Man, was fascinated by the question of whether it is possible to tell whether you are living in a Dark Age or the beginning of one. It is trickier than one might think.
Diagnosing Decline

Quote Originally Posted by AB
James Q. Wilson, one of the smartest men I've met, who is interesting even when he's wrong (which is often enough), has written a provocative piece arguing that the United States is more politically polarized than it has been in decades, in the sense that Republicans and Democrats not only disagree about policy and how to divide the spoils of taxation, but believe deeply that the other side is either evil or depraved. That doesn't leave much room for compromise or unity in the face of a common threat. A society so deeply polarized is going to have a hard time maintaining an imperial presence let alone undertaking new initiatives around the world.







Post#10722 at 02-23-2006 05:52 PM by The Wonkette [at Arlington, VA 1956 joined Jul 2002 #posts 9,209]
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02-23-2006, 05:52 PM #10722
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon
Quote Originally Posted by Mike Alexander '59
Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54
... Ultimately, the question is whether the plans put in place are working. If not, we need another set of plans, another regeneracy.
We should get an answer this fall and in 2008. If the Republicans fail to hang on to their power, then we will probably start over again. But if the GOP stay in power, and win in 2008, then 911 looks very much like the catalyst and the structural change will be a new Republican order.
As much as I hope to the contrary, Mike may be right, and the GOP may be in the drivers seat for a while. Of course, how their 'solution' is regarded 30 years from now will determine how well their solution translaes into a legacy, but I expect to be either dead or nearing that point by then. It'll be up to the Millies and Homies to make of it what they will. Xer fate will already be determined, I'm afraid.

I expect that a hard crash for the Boomers would be taken as a warning, as the now young advance in age, but like I said, I won't be here to see it.
If Mike is correct and the GOP end up being the "Grey Champions" and the Crisis ends up with the country in GOP control, I am curious how this will play out.

Mike, how would you envision the GOP addressing the current crisis issues? What would a subsequent High look like?

And would issues such as energy supplies and the widening gap between rich and poor (in the US and world wide) be addressed or left for another day? If they are addressed, how would it play out?
I want people to know that peace is possible even in this stupid day and age. Prem Rawat, June 8, 2008







Post#10723 at 02-23-2006 08:51 PM by Linus [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 1,731]
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02-23-2006, 08:51 PM #10723
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This whole notion of a one party crisis state seems rooted in the last fourth, when Roosevelt's Democrats carried the country by significant margins through the 1930s, although smaller margins in the 1940s.

The country has either been split down the middle since the 2000 election, or into thirds, making the political dynamics closer to the Civil War or Revolutionary War Crises (as I pointed out on another thread John Adams estimated that about a third of colonists were Patriots, a third Loyalists, and a remaining third indifferent or ambivalent).

Already we are seeing the broad outlines of possible crisis orders in other countries. There is a centrist "grand coalition" in Merkel's Germany, and talk of one in other Western countries, and a new centrist third party forming in Israel. I wouldn't be all surprised to see a bipartisan ticket in 2008, and some kind of centrist, national unity government (sort of a postmodern version of Reconstruction).

But there are omens as well, the continuing erosion of national borders and diminution of central government authority, as well as rising sub-national fragmentation, in the post-Cold War world. Iraq seems poised on the verge of an unconventional civil war, and in a worst case other geographical and political fictions disguised as nation-states in the Arab world (and elsewhere) could follow; governments of national unity do not necessarily mean that things will not fall apart. This may or may not be a crisis of fragmenting nation-states, and outbreaks of anarchy and sectarian violence, but it is more likely to be these things than a period of re-ascendant nation-state primacy. There may be the rhetoric and illusion of resurgent nationalism, but nation-states and central governments will be ultimately diminished by this Crisis, regardless the extent (or non-extent) of bloodletting.
"Jan, cut the crap."

"It's just a donut."







Post#10724 at 02-23-2006 09:00 PM by Tim Walker '56 [at joined Jun 2001 #posts 24]
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Linus posting & USA

I have wondered if a centrist coalition might arise initially across party lines. An alliance including, perhaps, RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) & Reagan Democrats.







Post#10725 at 02-23-2006 09:08 PM by Linus [at joined Oct 2005 #posts 1,731]
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Re: Linus posting & USA

Quote Originally Posted by Tim Walker
I have wondered if a centrist coalition might arise initially across party lines. An alliance including, perhaps, RINOs (Republicans In Name Only) & Reagan Democrats.
The two best embodiments of the new political center are Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, but - again - I don't believe a centrist coalition necessarily guarantees the center will hold; look at Iraq. The very existence of a "national unity" government, combined with energy and economic systems disruption, could simply spread the faultlines across the political spectrum, and force the devolution of power and economic activity. I believe that localism - political and economic - as well as regional and global entities will come to eclipse central govnments as the primary buffer against the threat of periodic systems disruption (the underside of globalization) in the coming decades. City states will have renewed primacy in a networked world, and nation-states diminished primacy. Tribalism will replace nationalism. America will still be called America, much as Rome was still called Rome after the Republic, but the authority of its national institutions, as well the vitality of its national culture, will be eclipsed by local (sectarian) and trans-national forces and institutions.
"Jan, cut the crap."

"It's just a donut."
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