I received a lot of positive comments yesterday on a Daily Kos diary I wrote which will be published today in the journal I write for. I propose Al Gore is the 4th generation instigator and global warming as the prominent theme.

FYI, "Al Gore Rising : The Fourth Turning" at http://www.dailykos.com/user/Bernie%20Quigley

Originally Posted by Bernie Quigley

I received a lot of positive comments yesterday on a Daily Kos diary I wrote which will be published today in the journal I write for. I propose Al Gore is the 4th generation instigator and global warming as the prominent theme.

...

Dear Mr. Quigley,

Please consider:

GWOT:GWOT
Global War On Terror : Global Warming Of Terra
C>A>R>R>H>A>E> : Homo Global Warming
Mr. Ahmed Chalabi : Mr. Albert Gore
Reform of Eurasia (Romantic) : Reform of Bovine Flatulence

This, GWOT, is yet another Romantic Idealism (a Crown of Creation/Boomer indulgence) that only differs in its application of Hubris to another area of the planet and the lives of the Children of Men.

The NeoCons wish to Crush enter ethnic group here Skulls!, the NeoLibs want someone else To stay (something that is seemingly impossible for Mr. Gore) home (a more modest manse then Mr. Gore's to be sure) and swelter in summer and shiver in winter.

Both Neo-s want these done by the lower orders upon the even more unfortunate so that they (the Neo-s) might do exremely well by doing , err intentioning, good.

Irak the Example was widely embraced; I have no doubt that the Trading of Filth (Carbon Crediting) will find as many dupes. I wish the Neo-Libs will be judged upon result rather than intention, but I am a skeptic on that matter-- the NeoCons received ribands and medals and cushy jobs for their failures of result.

Good luck to you and to Ahmed Gore.

Yo. Ob. Sv.
VKS

Originally Posted by Bernie Quigley

I received a lot of positive comments yesterday on a Daily Kos diary I wrote which will be published today in the journal I write for. I propose Al Gore is the 4th generation instigator and global warming as the prominent theme.

FYI, "Al Gore Rising : The Fourth Turning" at http://www.dailykos.com/user/Bernie%20Quigley

I read that and saved it to reread. You might want to note that TIME Magazine has already anoited Al Gore as Grey Champion. They seem to be unaware of the term, but are describing it in detail in their cover story.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

I read that and saved it to reread. You might want to note that TIME Magazine has already anointed Al Gore as Grey Champion. They seem to be unaware of the term, but are describing it in detail in their cover story.

Hmm.... We need not only a Grey Champion, but some Thomas Paines and William Lloyd Garrisons as well. I think Gore is being a Paine. A Paine will express an extreme opinion early with great emphasis and little to no room for compromise. The Grey Champion is more of a consensus builder. While by the end of the crisis the Champion may eventually end up creating just what the Paine demanded a decade or two earlier, he gets there gradually, incrementally in a series of shifts that don't move all that much faster than the general population is ready to move.

Paines are clearly a pain, and thus unelectable. Are the People really ready to get Gored?

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Hmm.... We need not only a Grey Champion, but some Thomas Paines and William Lloyd Garrisons as well. I think Gore is being a Paine. A Paine will express an extreme opinion early with great emphasis and little to no room for compromise.

Yes.

Paines are clearly a pain, and thus unelectable. Are the People really ready to get Gored?

Paines can also be a bane, and thus unelectable. Are the People really ready to get Bored?

When Jenny and I were in New York in '05 I spied an advertisement for a strange new exhibit. It was called "BODIES", and was subtitled "Real human bodies". The billboard ads were mysteriously and deliberately vague about what the show was all about, aside from the obvious. Part of the shock value, undoubtedly.

Anyway, a few months ago the "BODIES" signs showed up here in Portland, announcing that the exhibit was "coming in Summer 2007". Apparently the show had been such a bit hit in NYC that its purveyors were taking it on the road. Well, a funny thing happened when the show finally opened: no one came. How could that be, here in right-to-die, knee-jerk-liberal Portland, Oregon? So the name of the exhibit has been changed to something like "Body Worlds". The commercials are airing incessantly on Portland radio, explaining what it's really all about: an anatomical exhibit using real corpses that have been realistically preserved by a process called "plasticization". The announcements are stressing the fascinating medical aspect of the exhibition, rather than the inherent creepiness of it all.

So, there we have it. An obvious Unravelling freak-show loses its audience suddenly, practically overnight... and reverts to the cool rationality of science in search of a new one. Sounds pretty 4T to me.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

When Jenny and I were in New York in '05 I spied an advertisement for a strange new exhibit. It was called "BODIES", and was subtitled "Real human bodies". The billboard ads were mysteriously and deliberately vague about what the show was all about, aside from the obvious. Part of the shock value, undoubtedly.

Anyway, a few months ago the "BODIES" signs showed up here in Portland, announcing that the exhibit was "coming in Summer 2007". Apparently the show had been such a bit hit in NYC that its purveyors were taking it on the road. Well, a funny thing happened when the show finally opened: no one came. How could that be, here in right-to-die, knee-jerk-liberal Portland, Oregon? So the name of the exhibit has been changed to something like "Body Worlds". The commercials are airing incessantly on Portland radio, explaining what it's really all about: an anatomical exhibit using real corpses that have been realistically preserved by a process called "plasticization". The announcements are stressing the fascinating medical aspect of the exhibition, rather than the inherent creepiness of it all.

So, there we have it. An obvious Unravelling freak-show loses its audience suddenly, practically overnight... and reverts to the cool rationality of science in search of a new one. Sounds pretty 4T to me.

I had a chance to see it when I was in Denver. I went to the museum but bypassed the Bodies exhibit. However, I could not avoid the mountain lion they'd done the same thing to, posed at the entrance to one of the non-bodied floors. I'm sorry. It creeped me out totally. Representaions of human beings are art. Using real human beings to make the art makes my stomach turn over.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

I had a chance to see it when I was in Denver. I went to the museum but bypassed the Bodies exhibit. However, I could not avoid the mountain lion they'd done the same thing to, posed at the entrance to one of the non-bodied floors. I'm sorry. It creeped me out totally. Representaions of human beings are art. Using real human beings to make the art makes my stomach turn over.

Yes, that was my reaction too, and it's part of my point. In a 3T the idea of having one's stomach turned is part of the fun.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

When Jenny and I were in New York in '05 I spied an advertisement for a strange new exhibit. It was called "BODIES", and was subtitled "Real human bodies". The billboard ads were mysteriously and deliberately vague about what the show was all about, aside from the obvious. Part of the shock value, undoubtedly.

Anyway, a few months ago the "BODIES" signs showed up here in Portland, announcing that the exhibit was "coming in Summer 2007". Apparently the show had been such a bit hit in NYC that its purveyors were taking it on the road. Well, a funny thing happened when the show finally opened: no one came. How could that be, here in right-to-die, knee-jerk-liberal Portland, Oregon? So the name of the exhibit has been changed to something like "Body Worlds". The commercials are airing incessantly on Portland radio, explaining what it's really all about: an anatomical exhibit using real corpses that have been realistically preserved by a process called "plasticization". The announcements are stressing the fascinating medical aspect of the exhibition, rather than the inherent creepiness of it all.

So, there we have it. An obvious Unravelling freak-show loses its audience suddenly, practically overnight... and reverts to the cool rationality of science in search of a new one. Sounds pretty 4T to me.

I suggested to my anatomy and physiology classes that they go see the show when it visited Detroit and told them that they'd receive extra credit if they wrote a report on the exhibit. Nearly all of them were impressed.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

When Jenny and I were in New York in '05 I spied an advertisement for a strange new exhibit. It was called "BODIES", and was subtitled "Real human bodies". The billboard ads were mysteriously and deliberately vague about what the show was all about, aside from the obvious. Part of the shock value, undoubtedly.

Anyway, a few months ago the "BODIES" signs showed up here in Portland, announcing that the exhibit was "coming in Summer 2007". Apparently the show had been such a bit hit in NYC that its purveyors were taking it on the road. Well, a funny thing happened when the show finally opened: no one came. How could that be, here in right-to-die, knee-jerk-liberal Portland, Oregon? So the name of the exhibit has been changed to something like "Body Worlds". The commercials are airing incessantly on Portland radio, explaining what it's really all about: an anatomical exhibit using real corpses that have been realistically preserved by a process called "plasticization". The announcements are stressing the fascinating medical aspect of the exhibition, rather than the inherent creepiness of it all.

So, there we have it. An obvious Unravelling freak-show loses its audience suddenly, practically overnight... and reverts to the cool rationality of science in search of a new one. Sounds pretty 4T to me.

I heard about those plasticized human corpses, very interesting.

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

When Jenny and I were in New York in '05 I spied an advertisement for a strange new exhibit. It was called "BODIES", and was subtitled "Real human bodies". The billboard ads were mysteriously and deliberately vague about what the show was all about, aside from the obvious. Part of the shock value, undoubtedly.

Anyway, a few months ago the "BODIES" signs showed up here in Portland, announcing that the exhibit was "coming in Summer 2007". Apparently the show had been such a bit hit in NYC that its purveyors were taking it on the road. Well, a funny thing happened when the show finally opened: no one came. How could that be, here in right-to-die, knee-jerk-liberal Portland, Oregon? So the name of the exhibit has been changed to something like "Body Worlds". The commercials are airing incessantly on Portland radio, explaining what it's really all about: an anatomical exhibit using real corpses that have been realistically preserved by a process called "plasticization". The announcements are stressing the fascinating medical aspect of the exhibition, rather than the inherent creepiness of it all.

So, there we have it. An obvious Unravelling freak-show loses its audience suddenly, practically overnight... and reverts to the cool rationality of science in search of a new one. Sounds pretty 4T to me.

So are you going?

Here is an article about changes in political attitudes in the past 20 years.

http://pewresearch.org/pubs/434/tren...udes-1987-2007

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Another sign of the times or why Guilaini may win the GOP nomination.

If this trend continues, those have always maintained that the culture wars would spill over into the 4t will have a lotta black bird to eat.

I wasn't sure what post you were talking about, but my view is that there may be some kind of permanent (to the extent that anything is permanent) peace in the culture wars over the next few decades. I think that what this means is that abortion rights become something like a settled issue (even if they're thrown back to the states), and gay rights over time. I think the Christian right gets school choice and faith-based funding.

But just because there may be resolution of these matters doesn't mean they won't be fought about to the point of resolution, and just because the Republicans nominate Giuliani - and even if he wins the presidency - doesn't mean the conservative movement will roll over and play dead, or become entirely irrelevant.

My view is that we may not see a new national unity and rally around the president effect but a politics of fragmentation that reaches critical mass in coming years, a strong conservative grassroots making certain demands on lawkmakers and others and a strong liberal grassroots making other demands on lawmakers and others. I think rather than a new center which tells the left and right to shove it we may see politicians and others having to make concessions to both the left and right.

If Giuliani wins the Republican nomination I expect to hear a chorus of knuckleheads predicting that America goes the way of California (with a Republican chief exec and a Democratic legislature), but the way I see it there is a real false calm in the state. Schwarzenegger is piling on the debt and cooking the books (not to mention trying to sell of the state lottery) to avoid raising taxes to pay for his big initiatives (and the Democrats in Sacramento are largely playing dead or worrying aloud about the Important Threat of cell phone using drivers and people who smoke in their own homes), but there's going to come a point where either he or his successor has to substantially increase taxes on an already over-stretched and over-taxed middle class (and that tax burden is liable to increase for years: California's massive public employee workforce has some of the richest retirement benefits in the country, and will be retiring in ever greater numbers for a long time to come). I don't have a clue what to expect but my sense is that white middle and upper class liberals are seriously overestimating the willingness of Californians to pay significantly higher taxes when the cost of housing continues to be appalling and wages stagnant. I think people are going to see it as a tax hike to pay for services and entitlements for illegal and sort-of-legal immigrants (there are between 2 and 3 million illegal immigrants in California). My sense is that we may see a whole new era of white flight from California - this time more middle class than working class - to neighboring states with lower taxes, less density, lower crime (the whole of LA County is gangland now including the suburban San Fernando Valley), and a higher quality of life.

Originally Posted by Linus

I wasn't sure what post you were talking about,

Yes, apparently it did not get seperated out as I had intended. It is the one titled "Guilani Time."

but my view is that there may be some kind of permanent (to the extent that anything is permanent) peace in the culture wars over the next few decades. I think that what this means is that abortion rights become something like a settled issue (even if they're thrown back to the states), and gay rights over time. I think the Christian right gets school choice and faith-based funding.

But just because there may be resolution of these matters doesn't mean they won't be fought about to the point of resolution, and just because the Republicans nominate Giuliani - and even if he wins the presidency - doesn't mean the conservative movement will roll over and play dead, or become entirely irrelevant.

From what I've seen in the behaivor of Christianist groups, color matters. Yes, there is a growing concern among some regular churchgoers about the environment and poverty, but in last years massive Democratic conressional victories, it was mostly non white majority churches that shifted towards the Democrats. IMHO, the white fundamentalist vote will remain with the Republicans. They've dedicated a large part of the last 30 or so years supporting the GOP regardless of their lack of success at repealing the awakening. It is unlikely that there will be any reason for their recent votin loyalties to change as the larger world becomes more outer driven. Most likely what will happen is that they will continue to be inpotent until the next awakening. It is beyond our wisdom to predict how a new generation of prophets will then interact with the concept of fundamentalism.

Originally Posted by The Pervert

I suggested to my anatomy and physiology classes that they go see the show when it visited Detroit and told them that they'd receive extra credit if they wrote a report on the exhibit. Nearly all of them were impressed.

That makes sense. People are going to see the show more out of scientific curiosity than to be creeped out, as initially supposed by the exhibitors. That is what makes the public reaction 4T rather than 3T.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

So are you going?

Are u inviting me...?

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Yes, apparently it did not get seperated out as I had intended. It is the one titled "Guilani Time."


From what I've seen in the behaivor of Christianist groups, color matters. Yes, there is a growing concern among some regular churchgoers about the environment and poverty, but in last years massive Democratic conressional victories, it was mostly non white majority churches that shifted towards the Democrats. IMHO, the white fundamentalist vote will remain with the Republicans. They've dedicated a large part of the last 30 or so years supporting the GOP regardless of their lack of success at repealing the awakening. It is unlikely that there will be any reason for their recent votin loyalties to change as the larger world becomes more outer driven. Most likely what will happen is that they will continue to be inpotent until the next awakening. It is beyond our wisdom to predict how a new generation of prophets will then interact with the concept of fundamentalism.

What may happen is this: the new Prophets embrace it with a zeal not seen since the Third Great Awakening in the 1840s. Considering that the majority of Awakenings in the Anglo-American Saeculum have been religious in nature (only the last one wasn't), it would be surprising if the next 2T didn't involve some form of "old-time religion". Indeed, the only event I see that could possibly roll back, or divert in a totally new direction, the CR Awakening is another, bigger Awakening.

There may be a pragmatic, even liberal reason for turning en masse to something resembling old-fashioned "family values": overpopulation. Considering that the population of America may be as high as 500 million, and Earth's population perhaps 10 billion, by the 2050s, free love and laze-inducing drugs could very well be seen as the ultimate selfish indulgences.

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

I read that and saved it to reread. You might want to note that TIME Magazine has already anoited Al Gore as Grey Champion. They seem to be unaware of the term, but are describing it in detail in their cover story.

http://thenexthurrah.typepad.com/the...ore_maybe.html

http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache...lnk&cd=4&gl=us

On a reading of the current US mood, the US is still in a late 3T, although I can admit some preseasonal 4T trends have occurred.

The reason why this situation has occurred because the Silent still have enough influence over the institutions to restrain the Boomers, for instance the Silent still have a 23% share of the National leadership at ages (64-82). The Progressives in 1923 when they were at a similar age had only a 13% share of the National leadership, they had 23% of the national leadership in 1919. Probably the 4T will not start until around 2010 when the Silent influence has reduced enough to no longer restrain the Boomers.

That would mean an unraveling 26 years long, the longest turning since the Era of Good Feelings which was 28 years long.

Originally Posted by Tristan

On a reading of the current US mood, the US is still in a late 3T, although I can admit some preseasonal 4T trends have occurred.

The reason why this situation has occurred because the Silent still have enough influence over the institutions to restrain the Boomers, for instance the Silent still have a 23% share of the National leadership at ages (64-82). The Progressives in 1923 when they were at a similar age had only a 13% share of the National leadership, they had 23% of the national leadership in 1919. Probably the 4T will not start until around 2010 when the Silent influence has reduced enough to no longer restrain the Boomers.

That would mean an unraveling 26 years long, the longest turning since the Era of Good Feelings which was 28 years long.

I suspect that the lengthing of an active lfe for many post elders may be slowing the cycle some. For better and worse, it may also br blunting the transitions from one turning to another a bit. This may be why it is taking so long to achieve a consensus on wheather we've passed the tipping point and gone into the 4t or not.

Having said that, it is still possible to have a clean set of lines for a turning such as happened in 1929 and 1945. It will be possible, but not very common in the future.

Hi. I haven't been here in a few years. At that point I'd read every S&H book except Millennials Rising. For some reason, I only just got to it. Reading it now has given me certainty that we are now in the 4T, and here's why.

I was struck particularly by the tone in the book of the tut-tutting about Clinton (Bill!)'s affair. At first I thought, "Why are they so worked up about this? Don't they know there's a war on?" Then I looked at the publication date. Pre-9/11. Ah. Instantly it became clear to me how everything had changed on that date, in terms of a sea change in attitudes.

I recall reading in an earlier book (T4T?) about how in a 4T we would look back on the 3T with nostalgia. And at the time (~1997) I remember thinking "Ya gotta be kidding. Nostalgia for this era of gyrating moral compasses and rampant decay?" I posted online "Can't wait for the crisis."

I take it back. I do have nostalgia for the 3T. I would so love to return to an era when the worst behavior of our president was fooling around with an intern. When we're not facing any-time-now economic disaster, trapped in a no-win war, and hated by the rest of the world. Where Global Warming was a faint echo, you could board a plane without a scene from Total Recall, and Americans' every move wasn't subject to paranoid government scrutiny.

The extent to which the moralizing opinions in MR now seem quaint and frivolous is my touchstone that the 4T is here, for sure. And here's the kicker: in 2000, I felt exactly the same way as MR. I would have agreed with S&H's priorities up and down.

How times have changed. I bet if they were writing MR now, the tone would be radically different. It would have to be.

Oh, I can't wait for the part where we get it together. There was I in '97 figuring that in the 4T we'd all be singing We'll Meet Again while digging Victory Gardens together. Forgot that that bit comes at the end. They don't call it a crisis for nothing. Arrggh.

I don't believe we're completely 4T because of some of the circuses still going in. Deep in a 4T, would Paris Hilton's going to jail(or even the Chicago Bears' Tank Johnson) be such big news? According to the theory, 4T's are times of scarcity and economic dislocation. While layoffs and outsourcing have produced some of the latter, the former definitely is not. There seems to still be plenty of money floating around, enough so that the general upscaling in our culture has not waned much if at all.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

I don't believe we're completely 4T because of some of the circuses still going in. Deep in a 4T, would Paris Hilton's going to jail(or even the Chicago Bears' Tank Johnson) be such big news? According to the theory, 4T's are times of scarcity and economic dislocation. While layoffs and outsourcing have produced some of the latter, the former definitely is not. There seems to still be plenty of money floating around, enough so that the general upscaling in our culture has not waned much if at all.

The economy is going into the shitter right now, the MSM just isn't reporting it (they are regurgitating the Bush Administration's Enron-style fudged economic numbers instead). The morons on CNBC are still yapping on out our "great economy" and talking up the stock market when the Average Joe is losing ground and we're due for a recession (If I remember Mike Alexander's economic predictions correctly) The MSM is so corrupted that I don't think the fact that they are still doing the media circus is a good indicator.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

I don't believe we're completely 4T because of some of the circuses still going in. Deep in a 4T, would Paris Hilton's going to jail(or even the Chicago Bears' Tank Johnson) be such big news? According to the theory, 4T's are times of scarcity and economic dislocation. While layoffs and outsourcing have produced some of the latter, the former definitely is not. There seems to still be plenty of money floating around, enough so that the general upscaling in our culture has not waned much if at all.

While I agree that there is plenty of money floating around, I am leery of using the celebrity circus as a primary indicator of turning. After all, the 1930's were hardly devoid of Hollywood diversions for the struggling masses. I think Strauss and Howe even reference the era's screwball comedies in one book. I am not comfortable with arguing about the degree and quality of gossip in 2007 versus 1932.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

I don't believe we're completely 4T because of some of the circuses still going in. Deep in a 4T, would Paris Hilton's going to jail(or even the Chicago Bears' Tank Johnson) be such big news? According to the theory, 4T's are times of scarcity and economic dislocation. While layoffs and outsourcing have produced some of the latter, the former definitely is not. There seems to still be plenty of money floating around, enough so that the general upscaling in our culture has not waned much if at all.

I concur with what Odin is saying. The economy seems on the verge of another recession, reporting just a 0.6% growth for the first quarter of 2007. And of course, we already had a major stock market crash in 2000, and seen inflation, deflation, rising energy costs, etc. In fact, compared to the rest of the saeculum, we may be doing significantly worse, keeping in mind that even at the peak of the tech boom, the average worker was still making less (in 1973 dollars) than the worker made in 1973. And since that Dot.Com era, wages have been falling. For most of this saeculum, and unlike the other saeculums, most people did not live paycheck to paycheck. So the economic downturn may not need to be "extreme". Just financially squeeze college graduates and you have fuel for Crisis.

And as Odin also stated, keep in mind that what is being reported on the MSM may not be a good indicator of where the nation currently is. For instance, how many people in the MSM are reporting on the unprecedented youth-powered Obama presidential campaign? Not very many. And besides, the behavior of the MSM during Hurricane Katrina destroyed the trust I had in MSM media reporting.

Given the history of transitions to social moments, I think that it will follow a similar pattern Kevin Parker observed in the 1960s. The Awakening began after the assassination of JFK. Since that time, the soft-spoken Silent Civil Rights demonstrators were replaced in the media by loud, angry, and passionate Boomer Black Power activists. In 1965, the Watts Riot erupted. The SDS began to radicalize, and turmoil began to appear on college campuses. Music began to undergo a new revolution, as had fashions. But the mid 1960s were, for most of the nation, more reminiscent of 1955 than 1975 in behavior. In 1966, people certainly had the impression that something was "off" in society, but most lived their lives normally. For most people, the Awakening did not come to their doorstep until 1967 with the Summer of Love, The Black Panthers, mass rioting in the inner cities and on college campuses, widespread drug usage, and a huge change in fashions and youth popular culture.

Similarly, the stock market crash of 1929 was no cause for immediate alarm. In fact, that crash did not affect a lot of Americans, and they went about their daily lives. Some people were affected by the banking panics of late 1930, which definitely did deepen the emerging Crisis mood, but even that did not cause widespread fear and upheaval. By the time the world economy broke down in 1931, food riots started erupting across the US, and tons of food would spoil for lack of buyers in an increasingly hungry America, people started to really believe that something was wrong. The social moment did not begin until the BEF March on Washington in 1932 and FDR's landslide victory in the same year.

Similarly, Hurricane Katrina and her sisters Rita and Wilma only affected a few people, but the response to those disasters was enough to result in the meltdown of the political regime then in place. The meltdown continues today, and the recent midterms were an indicator of it, especially given how swiftly Democrats seized both houses of Congress and many governorships even in red states. And so we could definitely be in Crisis. But going by the nature of media and telecommunications of today, the pressure cooker is more likely to be displayed on the Internet than in the MSM. As a result of this, the social moment is likely to hit most Americans like a tsunami, suddenly, and seemingly without warning.