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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 466







Post#11626 at 09-18-2007 10:24 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by herbal tee View Post
Well, then I guess that I'm living proof that enjoying punk is not harmful. Not only did I go to punk clubs on a regular basis during the grunge era of the early 90's, but coming home from work tonight, I was listening to the Sex Pistols and then Devo on CD's. I managed to go through life from the 70's until today without body piercings or tatoos infesting my physical frame. There's nothing with the music, if an individual makes choices that are difficult or impossible to reverse, it's not the music's fault.
Kewl.

The Sex Pistols are total a-holes, FYI.







Post#11627 at 09-18-2007 11:37 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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Prolonged Turmoil

When there is prolonged market turmoil, it can only mean an Awakening or (especially) a Crisis.

September 18, 2007
Prepare for prolonged turmoil, says US Treasury Secretary

Suzy Jagger and Gabriel Rozenberg


Investors should brace themselves for a prolonged period of market turmoil, Henry Paulson, the US Treasury Secretary, said yesterday as he held emergency meetings with the Chancellor and the French Finance Minister.
Mr Paulson flew to London to discuss the financial crisis with Alistair Darling as markets remained in the grip of anxieties over the continuing toll from the global credit squeeze.

Speaking after talks with his counterparts in France and Britain, Mr Paulson insisted that the global economy remained strong despite the seizures in interbank lending, but admitted that the American economy would take a knock from the turmoil.

After meeting Christine Lagarde, the French Finance Minister, Mr Paulson said: “It will take a while to work through the turbulence in capital markets.”
Mr Paulson acknowledged that bad lending practices were to blame for the present financial crisis, which has been triggered by the high number of American homeowners falling into arrears on their mortgages.

However, he added that “the whole world, including the US, has benefited from . . . credit availability”.

Ms Lagarde had called for new rules to prevent a repeat of the credit turmoil, but Mr Paulson argued that “we want to make sure we don’t rush to judgments”.

Mr Paulson ruled out an immediate recession, saying that the United States’s economy would continue to grow in the second half of the year, despite the country’s housing slump.

The Treasury Secretary said that the credit crunch was the result of bad lending practices rather than any problems in the real economy. “We are already seeing modest reductions in the strains in some markets,” he said.
Mr Paulson described his country’s economy as “diverse” and “healthy”, with inflation controlled and growth good, and expressed confidence that growth would continue in the second half of the year. He said that the decline in US employment in August, the first drop in four years, had not been a surprise, “given where we are in the economic expansion”.
However, the financial turbulence will “extract some penalty” from the US economy, he said.

Turbulence in capital markets across the globe and the slump in US property prices are expected to force the hand of the US Federal Reserve Bank today to cut interest rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point, to avert the chance of a US recession.

Some analysts believe that the Fed will bow to pressure from financial institutions and make a half-point cut.

Mr Paulson declined to comment on the Fed’s meeting, saying that he had “great confidence” in its Chairman, Ben Bernanke.
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
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Post#11628 at 09-18-2007 11:59 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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We be 4T, people.







Post#11629 at 09-19-2007 12:02 AM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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Financial firms stressing stability? Back in the 1990s, this would've been unthinkable. I'm not sure how the mood was back in 1987, though.

September 19, 2007
With Economy Volatile, Financial Firms Start to Stress Stability

By STUART ELLIOTT


IN recent years, LendingTree, the mortgage Web site operator, prospered with upbeat advertising that confidently told potential homeowners, “When banks compete, you win.”

But last week, that campaign vanished, replaced with sober, straightforward ads that seek to educate consumers about “smart borrowing.”

LendingTree is not the only financial marketer abruptly shifting gears. Weeks after problems with subprime mortgages began roiling the industry, advertisers are offering reassurances about their stability and ability to ride out the storm, whether a short-term dislocation or a serious threat.
“Whether you are saving money, looking for a loan or managing a business, you can always depend on Chase,” assert ads for the JPMorgan Chase Bank unit of JPMorgan Chase & Company.

Ads for New York Life promote what a “commitment to our policy holders and their peace of mind” while repeating the words “financial strength” four times — including the first two words of the headlines.
The changes are reminiscent of the makeovers that financial marketers have given their ads during previous tumultuous times, like the stock market crash of 1987, the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 and the dot-com bust.
Other financial advertisers, however, are taking a contrary point of view when it comes to today’s turmoil, saying they see no need for such measures — or even deeming them counterproductive.

“Most market research we’ve done shows that when a stock market says, ‘Don’t worry,’ people worry,” said John L. Jacobs, executive vice president and chief marketing officer at the Nasdaq Stock Market. “We tend to be agnostic to a market condition because we’re here for the long term, the big picture,” he added.

So a television campaign for Nasdaq that began this week, created by the McKinney & Silver division of Havas, is focused on the achievements of companies like eBay and Starbucks, which are listed on Nasdaq. The humorous commercials carry an optimistic theme, asserting that a company trading on Nasdaq “moves life forward.”

In recent weeks, however, it seemed to many investors and homeowners that life might be moving in the other direction. The reason was the turmoil in the mortgage markets and the resulting gyrations in share values on the stock exchanges.

The campaign from LendingTree, which started last Thursday, characterizes conditions as “chaotic.”

The campaign, by an internal team at LendingTree and Mullen, an agency owned by the Interpublic Group of Companies, extends from print and television to the company’s Web site (lendingtree.com) and YouTube. The ads take an educational tack, centered on what are described as “Five steps for smart borrowing.”

One of those steps is a measure that most marketers rarely take: damping consumer interest.

“Make sure you can afford it,” Step 4 cautions, referring to a mortgage loan. “The costs of owning a home extend far beyond the mortgage payment.”

The goal is to communicate to consumers that LendingTree realizes “the landscape for lending has changed considerably,” said C. D. Davies, chief executive at LendingTree, part of IAC/InterActiveCorp.

LendingTree added a feature to its Web site in 2004 called the Smart Borrower Center, Mr. Davies said, and made it the subject of ads that ran in some magazines as recently as July. But it was not until last week that LendingTree switched gears to the five steps approach from its far more upbeat “When banks compete, you win” campaign.

“If I had to do it over again, I would’ve maybe started it 15 to 30 days earlier,” Mr. Davies said of the switch.

But with “all the people who need to buy homes, who need to be lent money, who may have adjustable-rate mortgages that are adjusting” in the coming months, he added, “it’s not too late” to revise marketing tactics.
The campaign for Chase Bank, created by McGarry Bowen, began appearing in late August in local and national newspapers. Some ads carry headlines like “Strength. Value. Commitment. Qualities you’ve come to depend on.” Some offer promotional rates on certificates of deposit or home equity loans. And other ads promise that Chase Bank is “committed to helping you buy or refinance your home.”

The “volatility in the lending market, in the stock market,” inspired the campaign, said Ryan McInerney, head of marketing for consumer banking at JPMorgan Chase.

“We stepped back and said, ‘This is a big time of uncertainty,’ ” he added. “We saw it as an opportunity to grow our business while reassuring customers.”

By contrast, the New York Life Insurance Company was reluctant to attribute the timing of its campaign to market conditions.

Rather, said John Brine, a vice president at New York Life, the genesis of the ads was a recent upgrading of its insurance financial-strength rating by Standard & Poor’s, which gives the company “the highest rating from all four major rating agencies” (the others being A. M. Best, Fitch and Moody’s).

“The upgrade, based on our financial strength and industry leadership, speaks volumes about the quality of New York Life,” Mr. Brine wrote in an e-mail message, “particularly in this volatile environment.” The ads are from Berlin Cameron United, part of the United division of the WPP Group.

Experts in brand marketing, corporate-identity consulting and crisis management offered divergent opinions on the timing and appropriateness of the campaigns.

“Obtuse and reactive and dilatory,” Dean Crutchfield, senior vice president for marketing at Wolff Olins, a division of the Omnicom Group, said about many of them. “They’re groveling.”

Worse yet, Mr. Crutchfield said, the ads are “self-indulgent” because they are “talking about the companies, not about the consumer.”

By comparison, Eric Dezenhall, chief executive at Dezenhall Resources, said the campaigns might be arriving at the right time.

“There is a certain danger in coming out too fast,” Mr. Dezenhall said, “because you don’t know if you’re dealing with a couple of bad days or a fundamental sea change.”

As current conditions suggest there are chronic aspects to the problems, he added, advertisers like LendingTree are clever to adopt an educational subtext for their ads.

“Sometimes in crisis situations, the best you can do is give anxious people a sense of control and a sense of choice instead of curing their anxiety,” Mr. Dezenhall said. “This isn’t marketing to increase the upside; it’s communication to limit the downside.”

Don Peppers, a founding partner at the Peppers & Rogers Group, said he believed that the primary issues for financial marketers in addressing consumers who feel victimized were trust and competence.

“The more self-interested you are, the less I’m willing to trust you,” said Mr. Peppers, whose consultancy is part of the Carlson Marketing unit of the Carlson Companies. “And do you have the competence to deliver on the promises you’re making me?”

Too many financial marketers adopted business models “that maximized the short term at whatever cost,” Mr. Peppers said. “Getting their credibility back is going to hinge more on the actions they take than the advertising they produce.”
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
intp '82er







Post#11630 at 09-19-2007 07:40 AM by Skabungus [at West Michigan joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,027]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
And this inherently proves why the punk music lifestyle is bad for your health.
Clearly you know nothing about the whole straight edge thing......

As for the Sex Pistols, you clearly miss the whole point, which doesn't suprise me.

I'd have to agree with Herbal Tee. I still listen to all that rasty punk music (The Clash's Complete Control is the perfect morning coffee drive to work song) yet, it's not hurt me any. Infact, the whole "question authority" theme of the punk movement seems to be a pretty good theme for the times. However, sean, being that you want to invest all authority in an antiquated "tribal chief" form of government, I doubt you get it.







Post#11631 at 09-19-2007 04:17 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Skabungus View Post
Clearly you know nothing about the whole straight edge thing......

As for the Sex Pistols, you clearly miss the whole point, which doesn't suprise me.

I'd have to agree with Herbal Tee. I still listen to all that rasty punk music (The Clash's Complete Control is the perfect morning coffee drive to work song) yet, it's not hurt me any. Infact, the whole "question authority" theme of the punk movement seems to be a pretty good theme for the times. However, sean, being that you want to invest all authority in an antiquated "tribal chief" form of government, I doubt you get it.
Monarchy is the world's oldest form of government. Not that commies like you care. Yeah, turns out that link you posted a while back was from Commie China. You are going to be sent to Guantanamo for treason, you little snit.







Post#11632 at 09-19-2007 05:13 PM by Matt1989 [at joined Sep 2005 #posts 3,018]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
Monarchy is the world's oldest form of government. Not that commies like you care. Yeah, turns out that link you posted a while back was from Commie China. You are going to be sent to Guantanamo for treason, you little snit.
lol...







Post#11633 at 09-19-2007 07:02 PM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Arrow of Progress, Reprised...

Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
Monarchy is the world's oldest form of government. Not that commies like you care. Yeah, turns out that link you posted a while back was from Commie China. You are going to be sent to Guantanamo for treason, you little snit.
In addition to the four turnings, I also care about four basic levels of human civilization. Hunter gatherers were common in prehistory, and are just a remnant today. The Agricultural Age ran from the river valley civilizations through about the Black Plague in Europe. Monarchy was the usual form of government during that time. Since the Protestant Reformation and Industrial Revolution, democratic republics are suppressing monarchies, and the copycat fascist and communistic alternative authoritarian forms, which are essentially the same save for using single parties rather than a hereditary nobility.

Anyway, the nitpick is that tribal government and hunter gatherer civilization are essentially different than agricultural empires run by monarchs. Thus, monarchy is not the oldest form of government. They are neuveax usurpers, if one is into the Argumentum ad Antiquitatem fallacy, which claims that which is old is best.

Arguably, computer networking could be as important in transforming human society as writing or the printing press were in their time. Arguably, nuclear bombs could be as important to warfare as the bow and arrow or gunpowder. Arguably, harnessing renewable energy sources could be as important as domesticating animals and harnessing fossil fuels.

If so, it is plausible that we will need to develop a form of government as different from tribal chiefs to kings, or kings to parliaments. My guess is that direct vote computer democracy is going to happen, but most posters on this forum are so dedicated to Industrial Age values that they don't want to hear it. Most cling as blindly to Industrial Age values and traditions as you do to monarchy. We can all be pretty stubborn and blind.

Anyway, technology shapes government. The Protestant Reformation, the several revolutions and civil wars which established Anglo-American civilization, and then the 20th Century world wars each had a role in reshaping society from the Agricultural Age pattern to the Industrial Age pattern. Religious values changed first, then political values, then competition started between the west and the old obsolete autocratic governments (monarchy, fascism, communism in turn.)

This crisis... representative democracy is obsolete. In some ways, I can sympathize with you and Virgil. The current form of government is not adequate and has basic flaws. Many of the monarchist complaints about modern democracy are entirely valid. Our government is broke. It is obsolete. Fundamental changes are required.

Alas, if 'modern' government is obsolete, monarchy, fascism and communism are even more obsolete. Autocratic government in all its forms has failed in head to head cultural, economic and military competition over the last several centuries. Going from an obsolete system to an even more obsolete system is not going to work. Technology is changing too fast to depend on any single party or single dynasty system. Any elite group will have a vested interest in maintaining itself, and will not adjust with the speed required by changing technology. Even our competitive two party representative system is no longer flexible enough.

But things will have to get really bad before the Democrats and Republicans will give up on democratic republics. The Republicans may fall in 2008, but no way will the Democrats be ready with adequate solutions to the problems at hand. Elected officials are becoming members of the elite ruling class faster than one group of elites can meaningfully replace another.

Somehow, we are going to have to cut the elite ruling class out of the loop. King Numbers is not the ideal solution. Still, something must be tried.







Post#11634 at 09-19-2007 08:30 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
Monarchy is the world's oldest form of government.
This matters why?
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#11635 at 09-19-2007 08:57 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
This matters why?
It clearly has something going for it.







Post#11636 at 09-19-2007 09:00 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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There are NO SUCH THINGS as arrows of progress, stop believing in that garbage. It doesn't mesh with the theory.







Post#11637 at 09-19-2007 09:15 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
There are NO SUCH THINGS as arrows of progress, stop believing in that garbage. It doesn't mesh with the theory.

The Saeculum can be a spiral of progress or a spiral of decline, that's stated very clearly in T4T.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#11638 at 09-19-2007 09:18 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Oh Shit!!!

To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#11639 at 09-19-2007 10:07 PM by Arkham '80 [at joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,402]
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Fascinating. Did anyone here take note of the mysterious billion dollar options trade at the beginning of the month that amounted to a huge gamble that the market would collapse by September 21? The timing is uncanny.
You cannot step twice into the same river, for fresh waters are ever flowing in upon you. -- Heraclitus

It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society. -- Jiddu Krishnamurti

Do I contradict myself? Very well, then, I contradict myself. I am large; I contain multitudes." -- Walt Whitman

Arkham's Asylum







Post#11640 at 09-19-2007 10:08 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
... If so, it is plausible that we will need to develop a form of government as different from tribal chiefs to kings, or kings to parliaments. My guess is that direct vote computer democracy is going to happen, but most posters on this forum are so dedicated to Industrial Age values that they don't want to hear it. Most cling as blindly to Industrial Age values and traditions as you do to monarchy. We can all be pretty stubborn and blind.
I think that direct democracy is a near impossibility because the participants are unlikely to, well, participate. We have enough trouble getting the voting population to the polls on a single day every two years or so. Allowing the world's largest Althing to make the rules would guarantee an oligarchy. While we are all interested in politics and policy and would surely be part of it, that doesn't make it a good idea.
Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler
... Somehow, we are going to have to cut the elite ruling class out of the loop. King Numbers is not the ideal solution. Still, something must be tried.
Until we have a concept that works on paper, it's too soon to even test it. Once tested, it may be suitable for a test drive, perhaps a state government replacement somewhere. After a few iterations and that experiment succeeds, we may be ready to try the big game. Since I'll be dead by then, please feel free to ignore anything and everything I say on the subject.
Last edited by Marx & Lennon; 09-19-2007 at 10:11 PM.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#11641 at 09-19-2007 10:38 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
Prostitution is the world's oldest profession. It clearly has something going for it.
I demand proof.







Post#11642 at 09-19-2007 10:40 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Holy ****!

Pray for us all.







Post#11643 at 09-19-2007 11:11 PM by 90s_Boy [at joined Apr 2007 #posts 111]
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Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
I demand proof.
I'm sure this will suffice.

(NSFW btw)







Post#11644 at 09-19-2007 11:19 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
No prob ... I gotta couple of friends that you can meet up with in Vegas this weekend. Just don't tell the hookers that you're under age.

Also, Hinduism is the world's oldest religion.
But Christianity is the true one.







Post#11645 at 09-19-2007 11:21 PM by sean '90 [at joined Jul 2007 #posts 1,625]
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Quote Originally Posted by 90s_Boy View Post
I'm sure this will suffice.

(NSFW btw)
Other professions (like farming) predate the 480s B. C. On an unrelated note, didja notice the artist of the piece is called the "wedding painter"?







Post#11646 at 09-19-2007 11:22 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
... Also, Hinduism is the world's oldest religion.
H-m-m-m. Wanna bet? My money's on animism, which can be traced back to the earliest hunter-gatherer communities.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#11647 at 09-20-2007 05:31 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Rani View Post
Anarchy is the world's oldest form of government.

Sex Pistols RULE!!!!!!!
Hmmm... Man is a social animal and evolved from other social animals. I don't think government was really invented, but rather it evolved out of the sort of society one can observe in other great apes. Anarcy would be an exception among social animals, rather than the norm.

But then, I've never heard much about of the Sex Pistols other than the name, and do not recognize that they rule over me. I don't really think you understand what government and rulership is about.







Post#11648 at 09-20-2007 05:46 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Fickle Fellow

Quote Originally Posted by sean '90 View Post
There are NO SUCH THINGS as arrows of progress, stop believing in that garbage. It doesn't mesh with the theory.
I also honor in part the 'Clash of Civilizations' theory. I will follow Toynbee and Huntington somewhat on civilizations, the Tofflers on the waves of civilization, and Strauss and Howe on turnings. Of the three, the turnings are the most subtle, the least clearly observable and the least accepted by historians in general. I can't take seriously those who cling to turnings, but who ignore civilizations and waves. There are things to be learned from all three perspectives.

What I'm dubious about is that God selects kings and that he governs in their name. It was a convenient theory back when muscle power weapons required a lot of training and expense, and thus the nobility's monopoly on military force translated to religious, land and political power. Monarchy is nothing but might makes right. It fell apart when easy to use and make muskets had to be given to huge citizen armies, as otherwise one got conquered by the next country over who were willing to arm their citizens.

As Napoleon pointed out at the end of the time of crowns, God is on the side of the biggest battalions. When agricultural age kings could no longer muster as many big battalions as the industrial age parliaments, God switched sides.

Fickle fellow, God...







Post#11649 at 09-20-2007 01:45 PM by catfishncod [at The People's Republic of Cambridge & Possum Town, MS joined Apr 2005 #posts 984]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
As Napoleon pointed out at the end of the time of crowns, God is on the side of the biggest battalions. When agricultural age kings could no longer muster as many big battalions as the industrial age parliaments, God switched sides.

Fickle fellow, God...
There's a reason He keeps getting mentioned as Lord Sabaoth, Lord God of Hosts (or, in modern English, Armies). When the Hebrews were beating up random little tribes like Philistina and Moab, that was seen as Divine Will. It was also Divine Will when the Great Powers recovered and Assyria and Babylon gobbled up the tribes like appetizers. Then it was Divine Will when Iran conquered both Assyria and Babylon and sent the Jews home. I haven't read Midrash to check, but I'll bet it was considered Divine Will that the Jews be diaspora'd again by the Romans, and now modern Israel is trying to exert some Divine Will of their own with the punch-above-weight IDF. A little bit of nuclear weaponry equates to many measures of fire and brimstone.
'81, 30/70 X/Millie, trying to live in both Red and Blue America... "Catfish 'n Cod"







Post#11650 at 09-20-2007 02:48 PM by antichrist [at I'm in the Big City now, boy! joined Sep 2003 #posts 1,655]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
Hmmm... Man is a social animal and evolved from other social animals. I don't think government was really invented, but rather it evolved out of the sort of society one can observe in other great apes. Anarcy would be an exception among social animals, rather than the norm.

But then, I've never heard much about of the Sex Pistols other than the name, and do not recognize that they rule over me. I don't really think you understand what government and rulership is about.
That's funny, because my Jesuit high school pointed out in the mid-80s that anarchy was about no government, not no rules. For those who would follow such a philosophy, I believe the idea would be for local ppl to hash out their problems with their neighbors, and agree to codes by which to live.

I don't know if it's feasible, but I do know that's not the same thing as running amok destroying things.
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