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Thread: Evidence We're in a Third--or Fourth--Turning - Page 479







Post#11951 at 04-22-2008 01:26 AM by Arkham '80 [at joined Oct 2003 #posts 1,402]
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Quote Originally Posted by Skabungus View Post
....Come on, confess, you've been reading Karl Marx again haven't you. Silly boy.
ROFLMFAO! Boy did you call that one badly.

You've not been here long, Ska, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but you should maybe read up on my posting history before you insinuate that I'm a Marxist.
You cannot step twice into the same river, for fresh waters are ever flowing in upon you. -- Heraclitus

It is no measure of health to be well adjusted to a profoundly sick society. -- Jiddu Krishnamurti

Do I contradict myself? Very well, then, I contradict myself. I am large; I contain multitudes." -- Walt Whitman

Arkham's Asylum







Post#11952 at 04-22-2008 11:02 AM by Skabungus [at West Michigan joined Jun 2007 #posts 1,027]
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Wink

Quote Originally Posted by Arkham '80 View Post
ROFLMFAO! Boy did you call that one badly.

You've not been here long, Ska, so I'll give you the benefit of the doubt, but you should maybe read up on my posting history before you insinuate that I'm a Marxist.
Frankly, I知 not interested in researching all your writings to divine where you may be coming from. Instead, I値l read your posts as you write them and make my call based on what you say to a given topic.

On this topic, you rants sound like stuff I used to hear from the guy distributing the Socialist Worker at the corner of Carnegie and Euclid Avenues. Riots of the middle class and under class, private armies defending companies against the mob and the government as well. Colorful! Dramatic! Full of youthful rage! Whether you have actually read Marx or not, is irrelevant. You sound like a Marxist in your illustrative rants. Since you contend that you are not a Marxist, maybe you should read up on him anyhow. That way you値l understand what I知 pointing to and can make an effort to distance yourself from it.

Nevertheless, I値l stop chiding you on the Marxian thing since it seems to bother you.

As to the topic, my comments stand. I don't think you'll find the explosion of rage you are expecting. I think pbrower2a is more on the mark.

***Skabungus launches a brick at Rags****







Post#11953 at 04-22-2008 01:41 PM by Virgil K. Saari [at '49er, north of the Mesabi Mountains joined Jun 2001 #posts 7,835]
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Right Arrow The Bubble Next Time

Minnesota Public Radio this morning on the first Hour of their Midday program had a discussion of the Food Pri「€ 「ri$i$. The gentleman from Wells Fargo and his host didn't want to examine the effects of Faerie Financial upon the rising costs of beans and maize.

When the wizard with the beard and the helicopter beanie can create say $20,000,000,000.00 ex nihilo and my brother on the land in Mali can labor for a year in the sun to grow say $750.00 worth of cotton, where does the impulse come to raise the price of his daily bread? Could the flow of magic cash from bailout of bankers seep into the bubbling commodity market and bid up victuals and fuels to the point of Southern peoples starvation? Does it matter that the clever and creative classed informationists are rescued from their follies by a wave of the wand that moves their ills to a warmer clime and duskier skin?

The Progressive with the mustache did this in Ukraine in the previous Century; now the Progressive with the beard is doing the hunger policy in the global South. Such wonders; no doubt Faerie will get more true believers and fellow travellers and useful idiots >>>-----> for such needful measures in the Coming Crisis. Cast that spell, wave the wand, suffer them not to live that Progre$$ might yet come.







Post#11954 at 04-22-2008 03:23 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari View Post
... When the wizard with the beard and the helicopter beanie can create say $20,000,000,000.00 ex nihilo and my brother on the land in Mali can labor for a year in the sun to grow say $750.00 worth of cotton, where does the impulse come to raise the price of his daily bread? Could the flow of magic cash from bailout of bankers seep into the bubbling commodity market and bid up victuals and fuels to the point of Southern peoples starvation?
Isn't that a trenchant point! Magic Money(TM) has made us un-whole and, by your measure, unholy. We are now in a state of post-reality that cannot last. We may all receive our beanies soon, and with them fair portions of that very Magic Money(TM) now so much in demand ... or not. I'm less certain that it will matter, either way. Fantasy is unsatisfying as a replacement for our daily bread.
Last edited by Marx & Lennon; 04-22-2008 at 03:26 PM.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#11955 at 04-23-2008 05:14 AM by Seminomad [at LA joined Nov 2001 #posts 2,379]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Reed View Post
If anyone still doubts that Xers are firmly in midlife, this article should put such doubts to rest. The Crisis mood is congealing at a rapid pace at this time. With the major problems facing this nation and the world, we are in the social moment, no doubt. With the Obama/Hilary Democratic primaries phenomenon, the mortgage crisis, the debt crisis, the threat of cyberwar with China, the energy crisis, and the food crisis, the year 2008 is shaping up to be an turning defining year similar to that of 1967/1968 or 1931/1932.
How does this article imply that Xers are 'firmly in midlife'? Only two of the people mentioned and quoted in the article are Xers (one born in 1967 or 1968 and the other born in 1963 or 1964); the majority are Boomers (even the survivalblog editor was born in 1960)!

Granted, things like this are why this is the first year that I'm not convinced we still be 3T (of course, in LA I see very little evidence to the contrary) but as far as I can tell, the social moment isn't here yet. Even the election campaigning seems to have a very strong residual Unraveling flavor!







Post#11956 at 04-23-2008 07:45 AM by stab1969 [at Albuquerque, NM joined May 2007 #posts 532]
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Quote Originally Posted by Seminomad View Post
How does this article imply that Xers are 'firmly in midlife'? Only two of the people mentioned and quoted in the article are Xers (one born in 1967 or 1968 and the other born in 1963 or 1964); the majority are Boomers (even the survivalblog editor was born in 1960)!
I have to agree with this. I mean, the oldest Xer's are only beginning to arrive at the midlife marker, and even with those ones, it's still arguable whether they're even Gen X or not! In my opinion, I think it'll be another 10 or so years before I'd consider GenX as "firmly planted in midlife, where by then, the youngest cohorts will be in their late 30's, depending on where one places the generational boundary markers.
Last edited by stab1969; 04-23-2008 at 07:49 AM.







Post#11957 at 04-23-2008 12:26 PM by The Young Rebel- '90 [at Columbia, SC joined Aug 2007 #posts 165]
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Cool Reminds me of a movie

Walks over to the knocked out Rags looks down and states "You got knocked the f*** out"

Continues eating popcorn
I'm 20 man I can't even believe that, can I even call myself young anymore?
INFP Core Millie







Post#11958 at 04-24-2008 02:26 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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Quote Originally Posted by Seminomad View Post
How does this article imply that Xers are 'firmly in midlife'? Only two of the people mentioned and quoted in the article are Xers (one born in 1967 or 1968 and the other born in 1963 or 1964); the majority are Boomers (even the survivalblog editor was born in 1960)!

Granted, things like this are why this is the first year that I'm not convinced we still be 3T (of course, in LA I see very little evidence to the contrary) but as far as I can tell, the social moment isn't here yet. Even the election campaigning seems to have a very strong residual Unraveling flavor!
My case is that of survivalism. Reactive generations exemplify survivalism, especially since it is one of the three principle Reactive endowments. During a Crisis, survivalism tends to go into the mainstream since it becomes a necessity. During the Revolution, survivalism became a necessity. Bad economic times, and a war but severe pressure on the basic necessities of life, enough to cause food riots by 1778. The same pattern held during the prior Crisis. Food riots broke out in the early 1930s. Again, bad economic times and political upheaval badly affected trade, making basic necessities harder to get. With that, the survivalist instinct of the Lost became mainstream.

And we are seeing the same thing again, according to the article I posted. Just like past Crisis Eras, a combination of bad government policies and economic turmoil, as well as adverse weather conditions are making the basic necessities of life harder to get...in fact, likely the hardest to get since the end of the prior Crisis. And as the global trade system experiences even greater disruptions normal in a Crisis, survivalism will become even more important.

In Generations, it was said that of all generations, Xers were the most fearful of catastrophe, whether nuclear, environmental, etc. We can add the Jonesers to the mix too, since they also tend to have more of a survivalist instinct than the Aquarian-wave Boomers. This also reeks of the prediction in T4T that social, economic, and political trust would implode.

Maybe "firmly implanted in midlife" was taking things too far. But we definitely see the Xers behaving in a way they should during a Crisis.
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
intp '82er







Post#11959 at 04-24-2008 03:39 PM by Ragnark_62 [at Oklahoma joined Nov 2006 #posts 5,511]
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Quote Originally Posted by The Young Rebel- '90 View Post
Walks over to the knocked out Rags looks down and states "You got knocked the f*** out"
Yes, Skabungus was not nice. I wonder if he's allergic to poison ivy?

As to the topic, my comments stand. I don't think you'll find the explosion of rage you are expecting. I think pbrower2a is more on the mark.
and

***Skabungus launches a brick at Rags****
Of course it takes the INTP keen sense of finding contradictions to note the example above.

Continues eating popcorn
:: uproots a poison ivy plant and swishes it on Skabungus's face. ::
MBTI step II type : Expressive INTP

There's an annual contest at Bond University, Australia, calling for the most appropriate definition of a contemporary term:
The winning student wrote:

"Political correctness is a doctrine, fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and promoted by mainstream media, which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a piece of shit by the clean end."







Post#11960 at 04-24-2008 07:39 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
Isn't that a trenchant point! Magic Money(TM) has made us un-whole and, by your measure, unholy. We are now in a state of post-reality that cannot last. We may all receive our beanies soon, and with them fair portions of that very Magic Money(TM) now so much in demand ... or not. I'm less certain that it will matter, either way. Fantasy is unsatisfying as a replacement for our daily bread.
We have done so much to create an illusion of wealth through the financial legerdemain that we have largely forgotten that money doesn't create wealth; it is and has always been at best a surrogate for wealth. When money becomes a tool of exploiters, then people will rebel against it if they can't turn upon the exploiters.

The Degeneracy remains in effect; we have a bloated money supply that has underpinned a callow speculation first in real estate and now in commodities. As people quit investing in speculative real estate as they catch on to the prospect that real estate prices are probably not going to recover in real terms for at least twenty years they go to commodities. The spike in oil prices and foodstuffs is the result of people using commodities as hedges against inflation that will result when the US government throws money at banks to rescue them (certainly not borrowers!) at taxpayer and worker expense.

Unlike in 1928-1929, the speculation is not in corporate stocks. The wild increases in stock values hurt almost nobody directly; speculation in such commodities as petroleum and rice... hurt.

The Regeneracy arrives with the complete repudiation of 3T practices. Americans are likely to be much poorer in 2012 than they are now... but such will be the cost of restoring sanity to an Economics Gone Wild. I predict that
we will all be paying higher taxes to pay off debts incurred as if they were precious commodities. We may see the return of the ten-hour workday as a norm... without an increase in real pay after the raised taxes. Debt has to be paid for, and anyone who trivializes debt is a fool.







Post#11961 at 04-25-2008 05:30 PM by takascar2 [at North Side, Chi-Town, 1962 joined Jan 2002 #posts 563]
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Quote Originally Posted by stab1969 View Post
I have to agree with this. I mean, the oldest Xer's are only beginning to arrive at the midlife marker, and even with those ones, it's still arguable whether they're even Gen X or not! In my opinion, I think it'll be another 10 or so years before I'd consider GenX as "firmly planted in midlife, where by then, the youngest cohorts will be in their late 30's, depending on where one places the generational boundary markers.
Yah - On November 23, the oldest Xer will be 48 and if the nominal size of a
generation is 21 years, not even a third of Xer's are in midlife at that point
(6 years worth).

Unfortunatly, I'm already across that line (late '62) but most of my generational cohorts aren't.







Post#11962 at 04-27-2008 02:02 AM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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After several years I have changed my sig line. There isn't a doubt in my mind now about what turning we are in.

A little less certain, in terms of specifics I suspect we are about two-and-a-half years into an opening cascade (and a prolonged one) that began with Katrina, and that we will have to wait until next year for the regeneracy phase to begin.

I also still think the current working boundary for the Millie/Homie boundary is 2001/2002, but even if I'm right, that is obviously subject to great change as things develop.
Last edited by Zarathustra; 04-27-2008 at 02:06 AM.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#11963 at 04-27-2008 07:02 AM by Bob Butler 54 [at Cove Hold, Carver, MA joined Jul 2001 #posts 6,431]
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Probably

Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
After several years I have changed my sig line. There isn't a doubt in my mind now about what turning we are in.

A little less certain, in terms of specifics I suspect we are about two-and-a-half years into an opening cascade (and a prolonged one) that began with Katrina, and that we will have to wait until next year for the regeneracy phase to begin.
I'm pretty much with you. One could argue that Katrina wouldn't have been what it was without September 11th and the Middle East situation mucking up the US government. One could say the cascade started earlier. September 11th is just going to look much more spectacular in the history books, even if the mood change of Katrina might be a more appropriate mark from a generation and mood perspective. Yes, the atmosphere just after September 11th was classic Pearl Harbor, but it didn't take. Generation time wise mode, is Kartrina closer to the predicted date that makes everything fit, or is September 11th going to effect how young homelanders perceive their reality? I've no strong opinion.

It is also possible that the winner of the next presidential election might blow it, might not have the stuff it takes for a successful regeneracy. I hope not, but it is possible. There is still no one decisive emotional issue that everyone can unite behind as the base for a cultural transformation. While I hate to give a certain devil his due, 'Bush sucks' is not a transformational uniting issue. A more positive and decisive platform must develop. I am not certain that it will.

Consider this post to be a polite mention of possibilities rather than a demand for a heated debate. Note, I'm not arguing the sig change.







Post#11964 at 04-27-2008 12:14 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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The economic meltdown has likely begun due to the rapid fall in housing prices and the rapid increases in energy and food prices. Business as usual has become impossible in government, and possibly business as well.







Post#11965 at 04-27-2008 03:19 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
After several years I have changed my sig line. There isn't a doubt in my mind now about what turning we are in.

A little less certain, in terms of specifics I suspect we are about two-and-a-half years into an opening cascade (and a prolonged one) that began with Katrina, and that we will have to wait until next year for the regeneracy phase to begin.

I also still think the current working boundary for the Millie/Homie boundary is 2001/2002, but even if I'm right, that is obviously subject to great change as things develop.
I agree...................
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#11966 at 04-27-2008 03:25 PM by Odin [at Moorhead, MN, USA joined Sep 2006 #posts 14,442]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
I'm pretty much with you. One could argue that Katrina wouldn't have been what it was without September 11th and the Middle East situation mucking up the US government. One could say the cascade started earlier. September 11th is just going to look much more spectacular in the history books, even if the mood change of Katrina might be a more appropriate mark from a generation and mood perspective. Yes, the atmosphere just after September 11th was classic Pearl Harbor, but it didn't take. Generation time wise mode, is Kartrina closer to the predicted date that makes everything fit, or is September 11th going to effect how young homelanders perceive their reality? I've no strong opinion.

It is also possible that the winner of the next presidential election might blow it, might not have the stuff it takes for a successful regeneracy. I hope not, but it is possible. There is still no one decisive emotional issue that everyone can unite behind as the base for a cultural transformation. While I hate to give a certain devil his due, 'Bush sucks' is not a transformational uniting issue. A more positive and decisive platform must develop. I am not certain that it will.

Consider this post to be a polite mention of possibilities rather than a demand for a heated debate. Note, I'm not arguing the sig change.
IMO the reaction to 9/11 was classic 3T, lots of enthusiasm but little follow through or real sacrifice. Out leaders telling us that shopping and consumption is a patriotic duty certainly isn't 4T.

Remember the Democratic Party was splintered in 1932 as well, Al Smith and other Establishment types were hell-bent of keeping FDR off the ticket and FDR had positioned himself as a moderate similar to how Obama is doing.
To recommend thrift to the poor is both grotesque and insulting. It is like advising a man who is starving to eat less.

-Oscar Wilde, The Soul of Man under Socialism







Post#11967 at 04-27-2008 05:06 PM by Mr. Reed [at Intersection of History joined Jun 2001 #posts 4,376]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
I'm pretty much with you. One could argue that Katrina wouldn't have been what it was without September 11th and the Middle East situation mucking up the US government. One could say the cascade started earlier. September 11th is just going to look much more spectacular in the history books, even if the mood change of Katrina might be a more appropriate mark from a generation and mood perspective. Yes, the atmosphere just after September 11th was classic Pearl Harbor, but it didn't take. Generation time wise mode, is Kartrina closer to the predicted date that makes everything fit, or is September 11th going to effect how young homelanders perceive their reality? I've no strong opinion.
Katrina will still claim its place in history simply because the mood shifted at around that time. Bush war reelected by a hair margin, and most people still supported the war. Also, the culture wars still existed during this time, divided 50/50 along Red/Blue lines. Conservatism still reigned supreme, as it had since Nixon was elected president.

By the end of the year, though the nation's mindset had drastically changed. Most historians will be unable to resist Katrina, since the mood shift will be so visible in the eyes of historians. After Katrina, the above had become history. The Red/Blue culture wars have generally ended. Bush's popularity drastically sunk, never to recover. The conservative ascendancy came to a screeching halt, as Democrats retook both houses of Congresses and several governor positions in states that were deep Red before. While the story of the 2004 election was the culture wars between Boomers, the emerging story of 2008 is a "generation gap" in politics and technology between Boomers and their rising adult Millennial children that transcends race, gender, or even the traditional divisions of left/right. Since Katrina, people paid less attention to the values divide. Rather, secular issues are dominant. Even some conservatives are abandoning the era of Goldwater politics, even as they retain their conservative morality on cultural issues. 2008 is a 4T election cycle. By November, at the rate things are going, secular problems will be too large for anyone to ignore, requiring immediate emergency action. The economy will tank, oil will continue to rise in price, and the price of food will continue to increase. The youth will be widely recognized as a potent political force. And whoever is elected will ultimately have to answer to the politically dominant youth, especially as its power multiplies in the post election years. I think that people will talk about the Katrina event for ending (drastically) the Nixon-Bush political era. Even the UK is entering a Crisis mood with the food, oil, and economic Crisis, and people there are in a panicky mood. But at the same time, the era we are living in will be recognized as the Post-9/11 era simply because of its obviousness as an event, and the national and global political upheaval that it caused. Just as many people like to lump Kennedy, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the March on Washington (and the early 1960s Civil Rights) with the rest of the 1960s, people will like to add the antipode of Camelot with the rest of the naughts.


It is also possible that the winner of the next presidential election might blow it, might not have the stuff it takes for a successful regeneracy. I hope not, but it is possible. There is still no one decisive emotional issue that everyone can unite behind as the base for a cultural transformation. While I hate to give a certain devil his due, 'Bush sucks' is not a transformational uniting issue. A more positive and decisive platform must develop. I am not certain that it will.

Consider this post to be a polite mention of possibilities rather than a demand for a heated debate. Note, I'm not arguing the sig change.
I think the regeneracy is going to occur regardless of who we get as president. It will occur with, or without the president elected in 2008. By 2009, global problems will seem far worse than they do now at the rate things are falling apart. Food will be higher, gas will be higher than today, and the economy will likely not be improving. At the same time, global instability will have risen, even in places like the UK. By that time, the problems will be perceived as being much more urgent. If the president proves impotent, the president will be removed, somehow.
"The urge to dream, and the will to enable it is fundamental to being human and have coincided with what it is to be American." -- Neil deGrasse Tyson
intp '82er







Post#11968 at 04-27-2008 08:01 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
I'm pretty much with you. One could argue that Katrina wouldn't have been what it was without September 11th and the Middle East situation mucking up the US government. One could say the cascade started earlier. September 11th is just going to look much more spectacular in the history books, even if the mood change of Katrina might be a more appropriate mark from a generation and mood perspective. Yes, the atmosphere just after September 11th was classic Pearl Harbor, but it didn't take. Generation time wise mode, is Kartrina closer to the predicted date that makes everything fit, or is September 11th going to effect how young homelanders perceive their reality? I've no strong opinion.
Agreed. 9/11 will certainly look bigger in the history books, especially if (and it seems likely) they are not written from a saecular perspective. However, I think most will be able to see that 9/11 didn't change much of anything except to suddenly turbo-charge most existing trends, e.g., Clinton-era benevolent "hyperpower" becomes Dubya's unilateral hegemon; Clinton-era (quiet) expansion of federal power becomes Dubya's assault on the Constitution; Reagan's "bigger is better" metastisizes into ever larger houses and SUV's; the Dotcom Boom gives way to The Biggest Speculative Bubble in Human History (TM); living like there is no tomorrow begets negative amoritization; and so on.

In short, timelines shorten and community suffers.

With Katrina, the mood finally breaks, in a nonlinear "straw that breaks the camel's back" sorta way. It may not have seemed incredibly profound at the time, but it made people think. And when I look back at all the above trends, I see them turn right there or very shortly thereafter. Look at Bush's poll numbers and those on Iraq. Look at the housing numbers. It's spooky.

Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
It is also possible that the winner of the next presidential election might blow it, might not have the stuff it takes for a successful regeneracy. I hope not, but it is possible. There is still no one decisive emotional issue that everyone can unite behind as the base for a cultural transformation. While I hate to give a certain devil his due, 'Bush sucks' is not a transformational uniting issue. A more positive and decisive platform must develop. I am not certain that it will.
With all due respect to The Authors, I agree that the 4T morphology they delineated is an "all others things being equal" affair. So yes, if McCain wins, or a Dem falters, 2009 may not yield regeneracy.

Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
Consider this post to be a polite mention of possibilities rather than a demand for a heated debate. Note, I'm not arguing the sig change.
Consider my reply unheated.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#11969 at 04-27-2008 08:08 PM by Zarathustra [at Where the Northwest meets the Southwest joined Mar 2003 #posts 9,198]
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Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Reed View Post
Just as many people like to lump Kennedy, the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the March on Washington (and the early 1960s Civil Rights) with the rest of the 1960s, people will like to add the antipode of Camelot with the rest of the naughts.
"Antipode of Camelot". Nice. I have been calling the Anti-Camelot, but I like yours better.

Quote Originally Posted by Mr. Reed View Post
I think the regeneracy is going to occur regardless of who we get as president.
I hope you're right.
Americans have had enough of glitz and roar . . Foreboding has deepened, and spiritual currents have darkened . . .
THE FOURTH TURNING IS AT HAND.
See T4T, p. 253.







Post#11970 at 04-27-2008 10:28 PM by Marx & Lennon [at '47 cohort still lost in Falwelland joined Sep 2001 #posts 16,709]
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Quote Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54 View Post
Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
After several years I have changed my sig line. There isn't a doubt in my mind now about what turning we are in.

A little less certain, in terms of specifics I suspect we are about two-and-a-half years into an opening cascade (and a prolonged one) that began with Katrina, and that we will have to wait until next year for the regeneracy phase to begin...
I'm pretty much with you. One could argue that Katrina wouldn't have been what it was without September 11th and the Middle East situation mucking up the US government. One could say the cascade started earlier. September 11th is just going to look much more spectacular in the history books, even if the mood change of Katrina might be a more appropriate mark from a generation and mood perspective. Yes, the atmosphere just after September 11th was classic Pearl Harbor, but it didn't take. Generation time wise mode, is Katrina closer to the predicted date that makes everything fit, or is September 11th going to effect how young homelanders perceive their reality? I've no strong opinion.

It is also possible that the winner of the next presidential election might blow it, might not have the stuff it takes for a successful regeneracy. I hope not, but it is possible. There is still no one decisive emotional issue that everyone can unite behind as the base for a cultural transformation. While I hate to give a certain devil his due, 'Bush sucks' is not a transformational uniting issue. A more positive and decisive platform must develop. I am not certain that it will.

Consider this post to be a polite mention of possibilities rather than a demand for a heated debate. Note, I'm not arguing the sig change.
From the very beginning of the Katrina debacle, I felt that the 4T was now emerging in earnest. 9-11 was an event like Pearl harbor that should have been the trigger, had the response not been muddied. The crystal clear focus was purposely misdirected at a Bush family enemy not involved in the event, and mood became confused. With Katrina, there was no doubt ... we collectively screwed the pooch. Nothing has changed that opinion. No one has been able to misdirect the blame.

The question in my mind is more current. Have we reached the point where delay is no longer an option? I think we have, but I'm not certain. As a nation we have been so trite and trivial for so long, it's hard to know whether we are really serious at last.
Marx: Politics is the art of looking for trouble, finding it everywhere, diagnosing it incorrectly and applying the wrong remedies.
Lennon: You either get tired fighting for peace, or you die.







Post#11971 at 04-27-2008 10:53 PM by MillieJim [at '82 Cohort joined Feb 2008 #posts 244]
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04-27-2008, 10:53 PM #11971
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Quote Originally Posted by Odin View Post
IMO the reaction to 9/11 was classic 3T, lots of enthusiasm but little follow through or real sacrifice. Out leaders telling us that shopping and consumption is a patriotic duty certainly isn't 4T.

Remember the Democratic Party was splintered in 1932 as well, Al Smith and other Establishment types were hell-bent of keeping FDR off the ticket and FDR had positioned himself as a moderate similar to how Obama is doing.
This is potentially important from a historical perspective and something that many forget about how things went down within the Democratic party in the late 20's and early 30's. Democratic politics of the 20's are littered with politicians like Al Smith (though perhaps none so prominent as he) who were able to grasp at the coming realignment but never really consummate it. It is telling that it was FDR, the rich aristocrat, and not Al Smith, the kid from the streets, that is remembered by history today, though.

I won't try to speculate on what that might mean for this campaign, because it probably could go both ways.







Post#11972 at 04-27-2008 11:15 PM by pbrower2a [at "Michigrim" joined May 2005 #posts 15,014]
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Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
After several years I have changed my sig line. There isn't a doubt in my mind now about what turning we are in.
We are 4T now even if the GOP leadership has tried to preserve a 3T mood in which people believe that profiteering and speculation create economic progress great enough to overpower the resulting inequity. The GOP leadership effectively preserved the Degeneracy and put off the Regeneracy. (I coin the word degeneracy to reflect the rot that makes the 4T inevitable -- and severe to the extent of the rot).

A little less certain, in terms of specifics I suspect we are about two-and-a-half years into an opening cascade (and a prolonged one) that began with Katrina, and that we will have to wait until next year for the regeneracy phase to begin.
I consider the 2006 elections evidence of a sharp change of public mood even if they changed little in politics except to turn 3T lockstep into gridlock. But as for the bungled war in Iraq and the bungled response to Hurricane Katrina -- those suggest the end of any possibility of political, administrative, or even military success with 3T practices. The real estate meltdown and commodity runups -- those suggest contradictory possibilities for the Great Devaluation. We are going to get either inflation to protect lenders or the worst deflation since the Great Depression to reflect new and perverse relationships between ownership, management, and labor.


I also still think the current working boundary for the Millie/Homie boundary is 2001/2002, but even if I'm right, that is obviously subject to great change as things develop.
Is anyone here involved in early-elementary education who knows children born in 2002 from those of earlier? K-3 teachers might know better than anyone else here.







Post#11973 at 04-28-2008 12:14 AM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
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Quote Originally Posted by pbrower2a View Post
Is anyone here involved in early-elementary education who knows children born in 2002 from those of earlier? K-3 teachers might know better than anyone else here.
That's intel I would love to hear.







Post#11974 at 04-28-2008 12:23 AM by Pink Splice [at St. Louis MO (They Built An Entire Country Around Us) joined Apr 2005 #posts 5,439]
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Quote Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon View Post
From the very beginning of the Katrina debacle, I felt that the 4T was now emerging in earnest. 9-11 was an event like Pearl harbor that should have been the trigger, had the response not been muddied. The crystal clear focus was purposely misdirected at a Bush family enemy not involved in the event, and mood became confused. With Katrina, there was no doubt ... we collectively screwed the pooch. Nothing has changed that opinion. No one has been able to misdirect the blame.

The question in my mind is more current. Have we reached the point where delay is no longer an option? I think we have, but I'm not certain. As a nation we have been so trite and trivial for so long, it's hard to know whether we are really serious at last.
In Primary Flight Training, there is a point at which you learn that you are going to lose the airplane. I think of 11 SEP 01 as when the engine started throwing blades, Katrina as when the Master Caution and Fire Warning lights came on, and 2006 as when we decided that it was time to find an open field somewhere...and found out we were over open ocean.

Now we are looking at whether we can ditch, or will have to eject. (The F-16 is not a good airplane to try a forced landing in, due to the huge intake. Ditching is suicide).







Post#11975 at 04-28-2008 01:21 PM by Brian Beecher [at Downers Grove, IL joined Sep 2001 #posts 2,937]
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04-28-2008, 01:21 PM #11975
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Gas prices as galvanizer?

Could ever-escalating gasoline prices be the galvanizer those on this forum have been looking for? Especially since the quest for more ethanol(IMO so the SUV'ers can continue to run them) is having a playing havoc effect on food prices as well. Even though we still don't seem to be doing much of anything to reduce auto dependency, there is evidence thata habits may finally be changing, with more consolidation of trips and less making a special trip for just a gallon of milk or a pair of pantyhose.

What may develop when 25 to maybe 30 percent of the people can no longer afford to drive their cars?
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