Originally Posted by antichrist

Truthfully I find visiting here less entertaining now that (to me at least) it feels as if the turning is going on. You can see it happening. That doesn't mean anybody knows how it will turn out though.

Obama came out of seemingly nowhere, pulling record numbers to the polls, and completely caught Clinton and her ppl off guard - they were running a 3T campaign and the public mood shifted under them.

Economically, the housing crisis has already happened, and how the implications of that and any other structural problems are rippling through the economy now.

Energy is becoming a drain on ppl, and I don't see any reason to think that prices are going to ease significantly in the near future.

So the things I would look for at the the start of a turning are already happening.

Pretty wild eh? Here's where the approach I take is useful. I cannot effectively identify the turning points. But once it is clear we are 4T then I can see where we go based on what happened in the other 4T's. Investment returns are going to really suck in the 2010's. So I remain long for the final burst of stock market excess as the 3T mood dies. The indicator I use? A capital gains tax rate below 25%. As long as this exists, the potential for a stock market bubble exists. Last time I checked the rate is at 15% so the light is still green. IF (and its a big IF with all the nasty economic news) we get the bubble, I will sell everything and book whatever gains I can (for these will likely be the last for a long time). After that I am going to sound a lot like John X.

In the aftermath the capital gains tax rate is almost certainly going to be raised above 25% and the bubble potential for the stock market will end. I predict articles about "The Death of Equity" in 5-10 years, which will produce a mass buying frenzy because of the last "Death of Equity" articles in the late 1970's, which preceded the huge 1982-2000 secular bull market. These folks will get crushed despite the attractive valuation on the market (much lower than today). So it goes in the 4T.

The stock market will rise in the 1T. Good luck in figuring out when the 1T is going to begin

Originally Posted by Mikebert

Pretty wild eh? Here's where the approach I take is useful. I cannot effectively identify the turning points. But once it is clear we are 4T then I can see where we go based on what happened in the other 4T's. Investment returns are going to really suck in the 2010's. So I remain long for the final burst of stock market excess as the 3T mood dies. The indicator I use? A capital gains tax rate below 25%. As long as this exists, the potential for a stock market bubble exists. Last time I checked the rate is at 15% so the light is still green. IF (and its a big IF with all the nasty economic news) we get the bubble, I will sell everything and book whatever gains I can (for these will likely be the last for a long time). After that I am going to sound a lot like John X.

In the aftermath the capital gains tax rate is almost certainly going to be raised above 25% and the bubble potential for the stock market will end. I predict articles about "The Death of Equity" in 5-10 years, which will produce a mass buying frenzy because of the last "Death of Equity" articles in the late 1970's, which preceded the huge 1982-2000 secular bull market. These folks will get crushed despite the attractive valuation on the market (much lower than today). So it goes in the 4T.

The stock market will rise in the 1T. Good luck in figuring out when the 1T is going to begin

In a 4T such investments as are available are labor-intensive, low-yield, long-term... because all other opportunities disappear. People look more for a sustainable cash flow, however slight, instead of any possibility of appreciation of value. The efforts to jump-start the economy through investments in public works are themselves labor-intensive, low-yield, and long-term... if on a larger scale. Would any business have ever invested in the TVA?

I think that we are going to see the capital-gains tax skyrocket as much of the gain begins to look inequitable due to sources or amounts -- probably when the peak happens. Populist contempt for the super-rich should peak just as soon as the biggest profiteers are getting out of the market.

Bernard Baruch said that he got out of the stock market in 1929 when the "dumb money" started coming in -- when the investors started to include cab drivers and factory workers. Any idiot can extrapolate a rising curve; figuring that the curve is about to quit rising is something that few can do.

When the easy ways of making money disappear, people revert to the ways that do good instead.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I don't think you could have gotten this more wrong. The liberal arts are timeless. Are Bach and Beethoven less great now than they were before modern atonal music was developed? Is Aristotle no longer valid since we have more modern philosophies? Shakespeare may be getting more difficult to understand at first reading because the language is changing, but his are still the most produced stage works in the English-speaking world. It is science that often sweeps the old away; this is rarely if ever true of art.


The liberal arts are additive. Abstract impressionism didn't require an abandonment of the earlier impressionist forms which did not push realism into some state of oblivion in its time. In fact, photo-realism represents a relatively new version of that older form. The concept of "modernization" is more one of what of the new deserves entre into the world of the already excellent.


The liberal arts are about understanding our humanness, for lack of a better word. Technology and science can't help bridge the gap between antagonistic tribes or factions, but art often can. It also helps to understand the human story as seen through the eyes of others.

Sorry for not getting to this sooner. I was pretty busy. I wasn't really including people like Bach or Beethoven. I was merely limiting the the topic to philosophy and politics. But you are right.

In an earlier post, posted an article about the new survivalism. This article touches on the same themes. One major difference between a 3T and a 4T is that during a 3T, secular problems are deferred while (as during the 1990s and the first half of this decade) society goes on a consumption binge. Now, the consumption binge is pretty much over, Boomers are giving up their SUVs, etc. In a 4T, however, people "brace for a raging storm", preparing for the future.

Energy survivalists prepare for crisis

Too late to save the planet, they say, so they focus on saving themselves
The Associated Press

updated 6:06 p.m. ET, Sat., May. 24, 2008

BUSKIRK, N.Y. - A few years ago, Kathleen Breault was just another suburban grandma, driving countless hours every week, stopping for lunch at McDonald's, buying clothes at the mall, watching TV in the evenings.

That was before Breault heard an author talk about the bleak future of the world's oil supply. Now, she's preparing for the world as we know it to disappear.

Breault cut her driving time in half. She switched to a diet of locally grown foods near her upstate New York home and lost 70 pounds. She sliced up her credit cards, banished her television and swore off plane travel. She began relying on a wood-burning stove.

"I was panic-stricken," the 50-year-old recalled, her voice shaking. "Devastated. Depressed. Afraid. Vulnerable. Weak. Alone. Just terrible."
Convinced the planet's oil supply is dwindling and the world's economies are heading for a crash, some people around the country are moving onto homesteads, learning to live off their land, conserving fuel and, in some cases, stocking up on guns they expect to use to defend themselves and their supplies from desperate crowds of people who didn't prepare.

The exact number of people taking such steps is impossible to determine, but anecdotal evidence suggests that the movement has been gaining momentum in the last few years.

Saving themselves

These energy survivalists are not leading some sort of green revolution meant to save the planet. Many of them believe it is too late for that, seeing signs in soaring fuel and food prices and a faltering U.S. economy, and are largely focused on saving themselves.

Some are doing it quietly, giving few details of their preparations — afraid that revealing such information as the location of their supplies will endanger themselves and their loved ones. They envision a future in which the nation's cities will be filled with hungry, desperate refugees forced to go looking for food, shelter and water.

"There's going to be things that happen when people can't get things that they need for themselves and their families," said Lynn-Marie, who believes cities could see a rise in violence as early as 2012.

Lynn-Marie asked to be identified by her first name to protect her homestead in rural western Idaho. Many of these survivalists declined to speak to The Associated Press for similar reasons.

'Peak oil'


These survivalists believe in "peak oil," the idea that world oil production is set to hit a high point and then decline. Scientists who support the idea say the amount of oil produced in the world each year has already or will soon begin a downward slide, even amid increased demand. But many scientists say such a scenario will be avoided as other sources of energy come in to fill the void.

On the PeakOil.com Web site, where upward of 800 people gathered on recent evenings, believers engage in a debate about what kind of world awaits.

Some members argue there will be no financial crash, but a slow slide into harder times. Some believe the federal government will respond to the loss of energy security with a clampdown on personal freedoms. Others simply don't trust that the government can maintain basic services in the face of an energy crisis.

The powers that be, they've determined, will be largely powerless to stop what is to come.

Getting ready


Determined to guard themselves from potentially harsh times ahead, Lynn-Marie and her husband have already planted an orchard of about 40 trees and built a greenhouse on their 7 1/2 acres. They have built their own irrigation system. They've begun to raise chickens and pigs, and they've learned to slaughter them.

The couple have gotten rid of their TV and instead have been reading dusty old books published in their grandparents' era, books that explain the simpler lifestyle they are trying to revive. Lynn-Marie has been teaching herself how to make soap. Her husband, concerned about one day being unable to get medications, has been training to become an herbalist.

By 2012, they expect to power their property with solar panels, and produce their own meat, milk and vegetables. When things start to fall apart, they expect their children and grandchildren will come back home and help them work the land. She envisions a day when the family may have to decide whether to turn needy people away from their door.
"People will be unprepared," she said. "And we can imagine marauding hordes."

Prepared for insurrection

So can Peter Laskowski. Living in a woodsy area outside of Montpelier, Vt., the 57-year-old retiree has become the local constable and a deputy sheriff for his county, as well as an emergency medical technician.

"I decided there was nothing like getting the training myself to deal with insurrections, if that's a possibility," said the former executive recruiter.
Laskowski is taking steps similar to environmentalists: conserving fuel, consuming less, studying global warming, and relying on local produce and craftsmen. Laskowski is powering his home with solar panels and is raising fish, geese, ducks and sheep. He has planted apple and pear trees and is growing lettuce, spinach and corn.

Whenever possible, he uses his bicycle to get into town.

"I remember the oil crisis in '73; I remember waiting in line for gas," Laskowski said. "If there is a disruption in the oil supply it will be very quickly elevated into a disaster."

Breault said she hopes to someday band together with her neighbors to form a self-sufficient community. Women will always be having babies, she notes, and she imagines her skills as a midwife will always be in demand.

For now, she is readying for the more immediate work ahead: There's a root cellar to dig, fruit trees and vegetable plots to plant. She has put a bicycle on layaway, and soon she'll be able to bike to visit her grandkids even if there is no oil at the pump.

Whatever the shape of things yet to come, she said, she's done what she can to prepare.

I second what Mr. Reed said about survivalism being mainstream now, here is an article talking about how survivalism was marginalized in the 1990's and now it is practically mainstream. I throughly disagree with some of the thoughts, I do not believe survivalism is going to vanish anytime soon.

http://www.tcsdaily.com/article.aspx?id=101806B

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

In an earlier post, posted an article about the new survivalism. This article touches on the same themes. One major difference between a 3T and a 4T is that during a 3T, secular problems are deferred while (as during the 1990s and the first half of this decade) society goes on a consumption binge. Now, the consumption binge is pretty much over, Boomers are giving up their SUVs, etc. In a 4T, however, people "brace for a raging storm", preparing for the future.

Energy survivalists prepare for crisis

Too late to save the planet, they say, so they focus on saving themselves
The Associated Press

updated 6:06 p.m. ET, Sat., May. 24, 2008

BUSKIRK, N.Y. - A few years ago, Kathleen Breault was just another suburban grandma, driving countless hours every week, stopping for lunch at McDonald's, buying clothes at the mall, watching TV in the evenings.

That was before Breault heard an author talk about the bleak future of the world's oil supply. Now, she's preparing for the world as we know it to disappear.

Breault cut her driving time in half. She switched to a diet of locally grown foods near her upstate New York home and lost 70 pounds. She sliced up her credit cards, banished her television and swore off plane travel. She began relying on a wood-burning stove.

The above was also blogged about on Daily Kos.
So, how are you getting ready for $200 oil (or more)?


Speaking of Daily Kos, I know one person who fits the type described above. Meet Stranded Wind.

I noticed the mood of tonight's NBC Nightly News. Sober patriotism, as opposed to the hysterical "he's not wearing a flag pin!" patriotism of only a few days ago. That, of course, may be the day rather than the Turning.

And news about how people are dealing with economic difficulties, both individually ("stay-cations") and collectively. That is, California schools are in such trouble people are fund-raising for them, and the question was raised - again soberly - if this doesn't leave the poor out in the cold.

The party's over. People are starting the cleanup. Without any fuss and bother. But with (apparently) the motto of the '80s, "Just do it."

Originally Posted by The Pervert

The above was also blogged about on Daily Kos.
So, how are you getting ready for $200 oil (or more)?


Speaking of Daily Kos, I know one person who fits the type described above. Meet Stranded Wind.

Such predictions I consider to be totally accurate, demand is beginning to outstrip supply.

Originally Posted by The Pervert

The above was also blogged about on Daily Kos.
So, how are you getting ready for $200 oil (or more)?


Speaking of Daily Kos, I know one person who fits the type described above. Meet Stranded Wind.

It is heartening to know that the forces of reaction are being made manifest in the fevered fens of Progress.

I spent an additional $100.00 this winter for heating in addition to the forest fuels from the wooded shores of the Pike. We Commercial Republicans are not yet living in the Providential "world as we know it" but in the 'we-create-our-own-reality' dreamscape that we tried to export to the lower center of Eurasia with Celestial borrowings and lower-middle class blood.

I think I shall purchase one of those behemoth vehicles that were promoted by Our Government with tax subsidy just a few years ago, something that gets a mileage in the low teens. As I drive 50 to 100 miles a year, the fuel costs at even $10.00 a gallon will do little damage to my yeomanly lifestyle. But, I shall purchase when the price falls and the Crisis cometh.

It will be officially here when Mr. Butler of the Commonwealth with Cape Cod finally admits to his ownership of a Bovine-American or at least a part interest in same.

The Mesabi gets its first set of electricty producing windmills running this summer thanks to the Green-lings at U.S. Steel and Allete Energy. They were manufactured in upstate New York and transported to Minnesota shores by way of the Great Lakes. Fear not, things will change... but we have a chance that Progress might be put on the run!

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

It will be officially here when Mr. Butler of the Commonwealth with Cape Cod finally admits to his ownership of a Bovine-American or at least a part interest in same.

Just so everyone knows, I'm not having a cow.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Just so everyone knows, I'm not having a cow.

The Crisis obtains with the admission and not with the acquisition. We are as yet still Unravelling.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

It will be officially here when Mr. Butler of the Commonwealth with Cape Cod finally admits to his ownership of a Bovine-American or at least a part interest in same.

I'm partially interested in having a hamburger for lunch, or possibly pasta with meatballs. Does that count? Will the shape of my ground Bovine American lunch influence the shape of the Crisis? Does this make us 4T by the Saari Criteria?

I must admit that the Saari Criteria does make as much sense as most of your contributions to the board.

Everything seemingly is spinning out of control


By ALAN FRAM and EILEEN PUTMAN, Associated Press Writers Sat Jun 21, 3:14 PM ET


WASHINGTON - Is everything spinning out of control?

Midwestern levees are bursting. Polar bears are adrift. Gas prices are skyrocketing. Home values are abysmal. Air fares, college tuition and health care border on unaffordable. Wars without end rage in Iraq, Afghanistan and against terrorism.

Horatio Alger, twist in your grave.

The can-do, bootstrap approach embedded in the American psyche is under assault. Eroding it is a dour powerlessness that is chipping away at the country's sturdy conviction that destiny can be commanded with sheer courage and perseverance.

The sense of helplessness is even reflected in this year's presidential election. Each contender offers a sense of order — and hope. Republican John McCain promises an experienced hand in a frightening time. Democrat Barack Obama promises bright and shiny change, and his large crowds believe his exhortation, "Yes, we can."

Even so, a battered public seems discouraged by the onslaught of dispiriting things. An Associated Press-Ipsos poll says a barrel-scraping 17 percent of people surveyed believe the country is moving in the right direction. That is the lowest reading since the survey began in 2003.

An ABC News-Washington Post survey put that figure at 14 percent, tying the low in more than three decades of taking soundings on the national mood.

"It is pretty scary," said Charles Truxal, 64, a retired corporate manager in Rochester, Minn. "People are thinking things are going to get better, and they haven't been. And then you go hide in your basement because tornadoes are coming through. If you think about things, you have very little power to make it change."

Recent natural disasters around the world dwarf anything afflicting the U.S. Consider that more than 69,000 people died in the China earthquake, and that 78,000 were killed and 56,000 missing from the Myanmar cyclone.
Americans need do no more than check the weather, look in their wallets or turn on the news for their daily reality check on a world gone haywire.

Floods engulf Midwestern river towns. Is it global warming, the gradual degradation of a planet's weather that man seems powerless to stop or just a freakish late-spring deluge?

It hardly matters to those in the path. Just ask the people of New OrleansHurricane Katrina. They are living in a city where, 1,000 days after the storm, entire neighborhoods remain abandoned, a national embarrassment that evokes disbelief from visitors. who survived

Food is becoming scarcer and more expensive on a worldwide scale, due to increased consumption in growing countries such as China and India and rising fuel costs. That can-do solution to energy needs — turning corn into fuel — is sapping fields of plenty once devoted to crops that people need to eat. Shortages have sparked riots. In the U.S., rice prices tripled and some stores rationed the staple.

Residents of the nation's capital and its suburbs repeatedly lose power for extended periods as mere thunderstorms rumble through. In California, leaders warn people to use less water in the unrelenting drought.

Want to get away from it all? The weak U.S. dollar makes travel abroad forbiddingly expensive. To add insult to injury, some airlines now charge to check luggage.

Want to escape on the couch? A writers' strike halted favorite TV shows for half a season. The newspaper on the table may soon be a relic of the Internet age. Just as video stores are falling by the wayside as people get their movies online or in the mail.

But there's always sports, right?

The moorings seem to be coming loose here, too.

Baseball stars Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens stand accused of enhancing their heroics with drugs. Basketball referees are suspected of cheating.
Stay tuned for less than pristine tales from the drug-addled Tour de FranceSummer Olympics.
and who knows what from the

It's not the first time Americans have felt a loss of control.

Alger, the dime-novel author whose heroes overcame adversity to gain riches and fame, played to similar anxieties when the U.S. was becoming an industrial society in the late 1800s.

American University historian Allan J. Lichtman notes that the U.S. has endured comparable periods and worse, including the economic stagflation (stagnant growth combined with inflation) and Iran hostage crisis of 1980; the dawn of the Cold War, the Korean War and the hysterical hunts for domestic Communists in the late 1940s and early 1950s; and the Depression of the 1930s.

"All those periods were followed by much more optimistic periods in which the American people had their confidence restored," he said. "Of course, that doesn't mean it will happen again."

Each period also was followed by a change in the party controlling the White House.

This period has seen intense interest in the presidential primaries, especially the Democrats' five-month duel between Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Records were shattered by voters showing up at polling places, yearning for a voice in who will next guide the country as it confronts the uncontrollable.

Never mind that their views of their current leaders are near rock bottom, reflecting a frustration with Washington's inability to solve anything.

President Bush barely gets the approval of three in 10 people, and it's even worse for the Democratic-led Congress.

Why the vulnerability? After all, this is the 21st century, not a more primitive past when little in life was assured. Surely people know how to fix problems now.

Maybe. And maybe this is what the 21st century will be about — a great unraveling of some things long taken for granted.

I saw a bit on the NBC news last night about how couples are dramatically paring back what they spend on thier weddings.

One wedding planner said, "Celebrity style weddings are definitely out."

We be 4T.

Bri2k

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

Everything seemingly is spinning out of control


By ALAN FRAM and EILEEN PUTMAN, Associated Press Writers Sat Jun 21, 3:14 PM ET


WASHINGTON - Is everything spinning out of control? . . . .

In the words of Strauss and Howe:

But [we] will be acutely aware that the Unraveling era's "empowered individual" survives on the flimsiest of foundations -- that, with just one tsunami, the whole archipelago of little human islands could sink into a sea of social chaos. T4T, p. 252

Sounds about right, and actually experenced as such from Katrina onward.

Whilst a POTUS with a wide donor base may arrive in 2009, compare the company congress keeps:
Open Secrets-Finance/Insurance/Real Estate Contribution Trends

Election Cycle

Total Contributions
Contributions from Individuals
Contributions from PACs

Donations to Democrats
Donations to Republicans

% to Dems
% to Repubs

2008*

$247,801,716
$207,852,946
$39,948,770

$132,684,859
$114,967,404

54%-D
46%-R



2006*

$258,381,898
$190,438,032
$67,943,866

$112,713,198
$140,375,710

44%-D
54%-R



2004*

$339,547,170
$281,578,102
$57,969,068

$140,869,434
$197,738,212

41%-D
58%-R

I think those with Turning Yearning will a heart a unitary executive with an audacious intensity unknown in the Bush years.

Originally Posted by Virgil K. Saari

I think those with Turning Yearning will a heart a unitary executive with an audacious intensity unknown in the Bush years.

God I hope not. But this is exactly why what Dubya & Cheney have done in that regard is so incredibly dangerous. It's bad enough those clowns have such powers. But if those powers become permanent . . . .

Why can't the Ovine Buckeye and others see this? I constantly asked the former what he would think of President Rodham having such powers and NEVER got a straight answer. Doesn't he worry that, from his point-of-view anyway, that a unitarily executive Obama Administration with warrantless powers will come after him?

Just anonther 'mood is shifting' piece, from Thomas Friedman of the New York TImes. For comment...

The straws in the wind are hard to ignore: If you visit any car dealership in America today you will see row after row of unsold S.U.V.’s. And if you own a gas guzzler already, good luck. On Thursday, The Palm Beach Post ran an article on your S.U.V. options: “Continue to spend upward of $100 for a fill-up. Sell or trade in the vehicle for a fraction of the original cost. Or hold out and park the truck in the driveway for occasional use in hopes the market will turn around.” Just be glad you don’t own a bus. Montgomery County, Md., where I live, just announced that more children were going to have to walk to school next year to save money on bus fuel.

On top of it all, our bank crisis is not over. Two weeks ago, Goldman Sachs analysts said that U.S. banks may need another $65 billion to cover more write-downs of bad mortgage-related instruments and potential new losses if consumer loans start to buckle. Since President Bush came to office, our national savings have gone from 6 percent of gross domestic product to 1 percent, and consumer debt has climbed from $8 trillion to $14 trillion.

My fellow Americans: We are a country in debt and in decline — not terminal, not irreversible, but in decline. Our political system seems incapable of producing long-range answers to big problems or big opportunities. We are the ones who need a better-functioning democracy — more than the Iraqis and Afghans. We are the ones in need of nation-building. It is our political system that is not working.

I continue to be appalled at the gap between what is clearly going to be the next great global industry — renewable energy and clean power — and the inability of Congress and the administration to put in place the bold policies we need to ensure that America leads that industry.

I suspect we are entering a key six month stretch that will determine whether the problem will ultimately be addressed...

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

... Why can't the Ovine Buckeye and others see this? I constantly asked the former what he would think of President Rodham having such powers and NEVER got a straight answer. Doesn't he worry that, from his point-of-view anyway, that a unitarily executive Obama Administration with warrantless powers will come after him?

There is an assumed Right of Reversal(TM) inbred in the GOP. Think how shocked ... SHOCKED ... they were by Bill Clinton's peccadillos, yet they have not only ignored but embraced criminal behavior in the GWB White House. Worse, they have been successful.

If the Democrats had actively opposing any of this, then the curious notion that the GOP rides on a different road following its own rules would never have taken such firm hold. Sadly, they didn't ... and aren't.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Just another 'mood is shifting' piece, from Thomas Friedman of the New York Times. For comment...

<Quote deleted>

I suspect we are entering a key six month stretch that will determine whether we the problem will ultimately be addressed...

Your typo (we the problem) is right on the money. We are the problem.

We're doing the deer-in-the-headlights thing right now, because average Joe and Jane Middle-American have been lulled into thinking that what ever they want, they get.

We're only entering the beginnings of awareness. Until that sinks-in, hoi polloi will not be supporting sleeve-rolling and personal sacrifice. Those are the minimum requirements for transition to a new paradigm.

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

In the words of Strauss and Howe:



Sounds about right, and actually experenced as such from Katrina onward.

It seems America is entering a period which has been seen since the early 1930's. Back then there had been economic depressions before, however that one happened during a transition from a 3T to a 4T.

The Washington Post movie reviewer thinks we're 4T now:

**********************************
Bleak Past Catches Up To a Troubled Present
'Kit Kittredge' Themes Have Familiar Ring

Abigail Breslin and Julia Ormond in
Abigail Breslin and Julia Ormond in "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl." (By Cylla Von Tiedemann -- Picturehouse)
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By Jennifer Frey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, June 29, 2008; Page M04

The new feature film "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl" might be a tale of childhood some 80 years ago, but it hits awfully close to home. Especially when that home has just been foreclosed upon.

The movie, a Depression-era tale, highlights one effect of setting a fictional story in an all-too-real and relevant past: History lessons become current-event lessons.

"Kit Kittredge," which hits theaters Wednesday, is the latest spawn in the American Girl franchise of dolls, books, accessories and TV films. And as producer Elaine Goldsmith-Thomas says, the American Girl line bridges the gap "so you realize that no matter how much time has gone by, not much has changed."

American Girl is based on the concept of teaching through lovable and uplifting creations. So in that vein, "Kit Kittredge," which stars recent Oscar nominee Abigail Breslin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), is the story of a precocious 10-year-old coping amid financial hard times.

Talk about timing. With foreclosures rampant, gas prices soaring well past $4 a gallon and many families struggling in 2008, this G-rated tribute to pluck and perseverance is what Goldsmith-Thomas calls a "living history lesson."

Witness an early scene:

Two young siblings watch helplessly as their belongings are removed from their home -- including a child's bed with love-worn stuffed animals still resting on the sheets. A foreclosure sign has been pounded into the lawn.

"Where will they go?" asks their pal Ruthie, whose still-prosperous father owns the bank that foreclosed upon her friends' property.

"I don't know," whispers Kit.

The Washington Post movie reviewer thinks we're 4T now:

**********************************
Bleak Past Catches Up To a Troubled Present
'Kit Kittredge' Themes Have Familiar Ring

By Jennifer Frey
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, June 29, 2008; Page M04

The new feature film "Kit Kittredge: An American Girl" might be a tale of childhood some 80 years ago, but it hits awfully close to home. Especially when that home has just been foreclosed upon.

The movie, a Depression-era tale, highlights one effect of setting a fictional story in an all-too-real and relevant past: History lessons become current-event lessons.

"Kit Kittredge," which hits theaters Wednesday, is the latest spawn in the American Girl franchise of dolls, books, accessories and TV films. And as producer Elaine Goldsmith-Thomas says, the American Girl line bridges the gap "so you realize that no matter how much time has gone by, not much has changed."

American Girl is based on the concept of teaching through lovable and uplifting creations. So in that vein, "Kit Kittredge," which stars recent Oscar nominee Abigail Breslin ("Little Miss Sunshine"), is the story of a precocious 10-year-old coping amid financial hard times.

Talk about timing. With foreclosures rampant, gas prices soaring well past $4 a gallon and many families struggling in 2008, this G-rated tribute to pluck and perseverance is what Goldsmith-Thomas calls a "living history lesson."

Witness an early scene:

Two young siblings watch helplessly as their belongings are removed from their home -- including a child's bed with love-worn stuffed animals still resting on the sheets. A foreclosure sign has been pounded into the lawn.

"Where will they go?" asks their pal Ruthie, whose still-prosperous father owns the bank that foreclosed upon her friends' property.

"I don't know," whispers Kit.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/916e6012-4...nclick_check=1

The article (by Larry Summers) begins
"It is quite possible that we are now at the most dangerous moment since the American financial crisis began last August."

It seems that the former president of Harvard is suggesting an August 2007 start to the Fourth Turning, something which the data actually seems to support!

Regardless of when the 4T started, here's evidence that the 3T is officially over -- massive layoffs and store closures at Starbucks:

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/busine..._closings.html