Do we still have any deniers in the house?

Soaring gas prices forcing lifestyle changes across US

Jun 26, 2008

LOS ANGELES (AFP) — Trains are bustling, scooter sales are booming and manual lawn-mowers are back in vogue. But charities are grimly facing up to a drop in volunteer workers while some cash-strapped families are cutting expenditure on fresh meat and vegetables.

In a myriad of ways, the effects of soaring gasoline prices are being felt directly and indirectly across America, forcing many into lifestyle changes as they rethink monthly budgets.

John Gargotta, executive director of Senior Volunteer Services, says spiralling pump prices are already biting in the non-profit sector, with the number of volunteers plummeting by 20 percent in two years.

"It's getting worse and worse," Gargotta said. "The people who used to volunteer are leaving to get jobs."

While the impact of sky-rocketing oil prices has not yet reached the levels of crises in the 1970s and 1980s, fuel costs are taking a bigger bite out of people's monthly pay-cheques, economists say.

By the end of the summer, fuel costs are expected to account for 4.2 percent of average US disposable income, according to Brian Bethum, chief US financial economist for Global Insight. That's up from 3.7 percent in the first half of the year and fast approaching the record 4.5 percent set at the peak of the OPEC oil crisis in early 1981.

Those kind of increases are leading to some dramatic shifts in consumer habits, according to a survey of people planning to buy a new car in the next year recently conducted by the auto valuation firm Kelley Blue Book.
Kelley Blue Book said that of more than 860 people surveyed, 28 percent had stopped spending money on things like coffee from Starbucks as well as DVDs and CDs. An additional 27 percent said they had stopped attending sports events, while 68 percent said they now shopped less.

Forty-four percent said they are taking shorter holidays because of rising gas prices. But for some businesses the rise in gas prices has been a godsend.

The American Lawn Mower Co., an Indiana-based firm that makes manual and electric lawnmowers, have seen sales increase by around 20-30 percent as consumers shun gasoline-powered mowers.

"We are seeing a significant increase in business," sales administrator Teri McClain told AFP. "The customers are telling retailers that they are more and more concerned about gas prices.

"It's not just affecting us at the gas station. It's affecting us at the grocery story, it's affecting us in all walks of life," McClain said.

The most striking changes have come in the transport sector, where thirsty gas-guzzling vehicles are being shunned in favor of more economical machines. For some people that has meant swapping four wheels for two.
"We are two months ahead of scooter sales compared to this time last year," said Tom Anderson, the sales manager of Motoprimo, which sells motorcycles and scooters in Lakeville, Minnesota. "We are running out of stock. New, used, big, small -- all our scooters are selling," he told the Northfield News newspaper.

Others are giving up on cars altogether and turning to trains and buses. From New York to Los Angeles, local authorities are reporting sharp increases in the numbers of people using public transport.

In Southern California the Metrolink rail service saw a record 50,000 people board its trains on June 17, a 15.6 increase over the same day last year, officials said. A spokesman for Metro Rail meanwhile said the number of people using the company's trains had increased by six percent in May year-on-year.

"There is no question that this is a result of gasoline prices," Metro spokesman Dave Sotero told AFP. "Six percent year-on-year is a substantial increase, the highest one-month increase on record."

New York officials meanwhile say that the number of passengers travelling on the PATH (Port Authority Trans-Hudson) train that links New York and New Jersey increased by 6.6 percent in the first five months of the year.
"Between gas prices and fare increases, a lot of people are choosing to ride PATH," said spokesman Steve Colman.

New Jersey Transit has reported similar spikes in passengers, with a record weekday average of 900,000 people travelling on the company's network during the first quarter of 2008.

"We are continuing to see ridership growth that we can attribute to the price of gasoline," said New Jersey Transit spokesman Joe Dee.

I'd say I'm less of a 'denier' and more of a 'doubter' at this stage; depending on how the rest of 2008 and 2009 unfolds.

Right now I'd guess Larry Summers's statement (that we've been in a 4T for a little less than a year) is the closest to the truth, but, of course, only time will tell.

Also, AFAIK Marc Lamb and Virgil Saari still believe it's 3T.

It's interesting, though, if you look back through the history of the forum over the past 10 years, there seem to be three different camps: those that believed the 4T was to begin in the early part of the decade (generally agreeing on 9/11), the middle part (generally agreeing on Katrina), and the late part (no consensus here).

Up until 9/11, everyone seemed to agree on 3T, but the debate was 'is the Fourth Turning near'.

When we hit 2012, will everyone agree that we're in a 4T - but with a debate over whether the Turning had begun one or ten years prior?

Originally Posted by Seminomad

I'd say I'm less of a 'denier' and more of a 'doubter' at this stage; depending on how the rest of 2008 and 2009 unfolds.

Right now I'd guess Larry Summers's statement (that we've been in a 4T for a little less than a year) is the closest to the truth, but, of course, only time will tell.

Also, AFAIK Marc Lamb and Virgil Saari still believe it's 3T.

It's interesting, though, if you look back through the history of the forum over the past 10 years, there seem to be three different camps: those that believed the 4T was to begin in the early part of the decade (generally agreeing on 9/11), the middle part (generally agreeing on Katrina), and the late part (no consensus here).

Up until 9/11, everyone seemed to agree on 3T, but the debate was 'is the Fourth Turning near'.

When we hit 2012, will everyone agree that we're in a 4T - but with a debate over whether the Turning had begun one or ten years prior?

As far as I can tell, the spark of the 4T was the ruthless conduct of GOP operatives to ensure that the GOP won Florida's votes, honestly or otherwise.The issue isn't whether Dubya won Florida and the US Presidency with votes; it's that subsequent events showed the willingness of the GOP to shout down and shut down a Party that had a near-majority. That we got a reprise in 2004, that time in Ohio, indicates that the same paradigm applied. One statewide hack was able to "deliver" Ohio, or at least make a GOP victory certain. The debasement of democracy in America is itself a 4T even before 9/11, Katrina, and any economic meltdown.

With Dubya we got Karl Rove in the bargain, and with Rove we got someone who mastered the art of circumventing the Constitutional norms that preventing a dictatorship and of creating news even if the news isn't quite as real as it looks. The 'news' can come from a supermarket tabloid, and the 'news' could be that Barack Obama is seen in a forged photo of him in compromising circumstances with a pretty white girl. It worked in Tennessee against Harold Ford in 2006, so don't be surprised if it is tried again.

This Presidential election could get ugly. A disciple of Karl Rove just became the campaign boss for John McCain. Sure, it's an effort to rescue what may be the weakest political campaigns since Mondale 1984 -- if not McGovern 1972.

Originally Posted by Seminomad

I'd say I'm less of a 'denier' and more of a 'doubter' at this stage; depending on how the rest of 2008 and 2009 unfolds.

Right now I'd guess Larry Summers's statement (that we've been in a 4T for a little less than a year) is the closest to the truth, but, of course, only time will tell.

Also, AFAIK Marc Lamb and Virgil Saari still believe it's 3T.

It's interesting, though, if you look back through the history of the forum over the past 10 years, there seem to be three different camps: those that believed the 4T was to begin in the early part of the decade (generally agreeing on 9/11), the middle part (generally agreeing on Katrina), and the late part (no consensus here).

Up until 9/11, everyone seemed to agree on 3T, but the debate was 'is the Fourth Turning near'.

When we hit 2012, will everyone agree that we're in a 4T - but with a debate over whether the Turning had begun one or ten years prior?

History books at the middle of the next cycle will show that the 4T began 11 SEP 01, became obvious on 29 SEP 05, and the major economic downturn began mid-2007.

Never forget we are the boiling frogs.

Originally Posted by Pink Splice

29 SEP 05

August 29th, 2005.

Just reflecting on what I understand to be the general mood from the great depression crash, which was stock market based rather than real estate based, I would guess that we are about where they were in the latter half of 1930. I say this because there was a lot of denial as exemplified by the stock market "fool's rally" during the first half of 1930. By the latter half of the year, basically everyone knew that the gig was up. That's about where we are now. I doubt anyone believes that another bubble is going to rescue them anytime soon.

Let me add that I am not discounting the importance of 911 or Katrina in writing this. Every crises is different and these landmark events all matter. To use a different crises as an example let's look at the American revolution. The Boston Massacre happened in 1770. It took three years before the Tea party happened in the same city. The British tried to punish Mass. by closing the port yet the growing sense of crises was strong enough that the other colonies felt enough solidarity to send supplies to Boston.
It would be three more years before the Declaration of Independence made it clear that there was no going back. IOW, it took six years to go from the Boston Massacre to the Declaration of Independence. It also took six years to go from 911 to the collapse of the housing market. In both cases saecular winter came on gradually as opposed to the sudden freeze of the 1929 stock market crash, but as in every cycle winter hits hard and and many have been and will be caught unprepaired for the cold.

Originally Posted by Zarathustra

August 29th, 2005.

Sorry. I screwed up again. September was a bad, bad month.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Just reflecting on what I understand to be the general mood from the great depression crash, which was stock market based rather than real estate based, I would guess that we are about where they were in the latter half of 1930. I say this because there was a lot of denial as exemplified by the stock market "fool's rally" during the first half of 1930. By the latter half of the year, basically everyone knew that the gig was up. That's about where we are now. I doubt anyone believes that another bubble is going to rescue them anytime soon.

Let me add that I am not discounting the importance of 911 or Katrina in writing this. Every crises is different and these landmark events all matter. To use a different crises as an example let's look at the American revolution. The Boston Massacre happened in 1770. It took three years before the Tea party happened in the same city. The British tried to punish Mass. by closing the port yet the growing sense of crises was strong enough that the other colonies felt enough solidarity to send supplies to Boston.
It would be three more years before the Declaration of Independence made it clear that there was no going back. IOW, it took six years to go from the Boston Massacre to the Declaration of Independence. It also took six years to go from 911 to the collapse of the housing market. In both cases saecular winter came on gradually as opposed to the sudden freeze of the 1929 stock market crash, but as in every cycle winter hits hard and and many have been and will be caught unprepaired for the cold.

Interesting. I do not claim to understand current finances myself but Krugman has suggested, in effect, that virtually every financial institution is holding millions/billions of worthless paper now, but that the evidence only surfaces every few months, whereupon there is some kind of bail-out and we sail merrily along. So there could be a catastrophic reckoning at some point that would dump us into early 1933 instead of just 1930--which sounds like an interesting analogy.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

Krugman has suggested, in effect, that virtually every financial institution is holding millions/billions of worthless paper now, but that the evidence only surfaces every few months, whereupon there is some kind of bail-out and we sail merrily along. So there could be a catastrophic reckoning at some point that would dump us into early 1933 instead of just 1930--which sounds like an interesting analogy.

Good point. Right now the policy orthodoxy is to not bring back regulation. To use a catchy phraise, the economic elite wants to party like it's always 1927.
IOW, keeping the GINI coefficent just balanced enough to prevent a collapse of spending by the common people. But it looks like it's already too late. I suspect that we will likely see misery on the level that will bring back regulated capitilism and discredit the deregulation cult until todays' children, the new adaptives, become the policy makers of the next 3T. And the cycle goes on.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Good point. Right now the policy orthodoxy is to not bring back regulation. To use a catchy phraise, the economic elite wants to party like it's always 1927.

Nothing so damns and dooms an orthodoxy than does folly. Orthodoxy survives only to the extent that it makes some sense, lest it be supplanted with something else.

1927, huh? Such will soon about as much sense sense as booking passage on the Titanic -- in 1913, that is. Of course, nobody was booking passage on the Titanic in 1913 even if the White Star Line wished that such were still possible. So it will be with the Bush II-era bubble; some will wish that it were still available.

Consider what sorts of people have been living high on the hog -- people who value their own gain, indulgence, and display above all else, the casualty list could be far larger. The methods of demise will be more varied. Let us hope that the hollow people who got fantastically rich by gambling on others' money and by getting well paid for treating others badly don't take innocent people with them.

IOW, keeping the GINI coefficent just balanced enough to prevent a collapse of spending by the common people. But it looks like it's already too late. I suspect that we will likely see misery on the level that will bring back regulated capitilism and discredit the deregulation cult until todays' children, the new adaptives, become the policy makers of the next 3T. And the cycle goes on.

I think that we are going to see the Gini coefficient take care of itself as dirty money becomes paper that none can collect upon. The tragedy is of course that all the wealth that was to trickle down in a super-prosperity that made relative inequality harmless will simply disappear. We stand to see the bad practices of the last two decades outlawed if they are not unthinkable. People are going to need valid cause for trading in derivatives, hedge funds, commodities, and other arcane instruments unless they have a legitimate interest in the commodity. (Farmers will be able to sell commodity futures in what they grow, and food processing companies will get to buy them). People are going to need 20% down to buy even a washing machine. A house or a car on credit? You will likely need proof of insurance -- life insurance, and not simply casualty insurance.

There is good news and bad news to a full-blown 4T economy: the bad news is that people will have to earn what they get. The good news is that people will get what they earn.

What is the GINI coefficient, please?

Banning trades in non-real commodities. .. wow. That would be a massive confiscation of assets at this point (granted that many of them are probably worthless.) I'll be pretty amazed if I live to see that one. However, for those of who who have seen the generationally indispensable Wall Street, Hal Holbrooke may again replace Michael Douglas as the archetypal financial player.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

What is the GINI coefficient, please?

Oh yes, here.

Briefly

The Gini coefficient is a measure of statistical dispersion most prominently used as a measure of inequality of income distribution or inequality of wealth distribution. It is defined as a ratio with values between 0 and 1: A low Gini coefficient indicates more equal income or wealth distribution, while a high Gini coefficient indicates more unequal distribution. 0 corresponds to perfect equality (everyone having exactly the same income) and 1 corresponds to perfect inequality (where one person has all the income, while everyone else has zero income)...

...Gini indices for the United States at various times, according to the US Census Bureau:

1967: 39.7 (first year reported)
1968: 38.6 (lowest index reported)
1970: 39.4
1980: 40.3
1990: 42.8
2000: 46.2
2005: 46.9
2006: 47.0 (most recent year reported; highest index reported)[3]

You took economics about the time that this measurement was refined. As 1990 and perhaps a couple of other posters have noted, income equality as measured above was at its peak in 1968, the year the new deal coalition fragmented on the streets of Chicago leading to the election of Nixon and the rise southern strategy coalition that is soon to age out of power.

What very, very few people know today is that income inequality, together with overproduction, was widely blamed for the Great Depression in the 1930s. The problem, people thought, was that there were too many goods and too few people with money to buy them because they had not shared in the increase of GNP. But that explanation has lost favor over the last forty years or so. Perhaps it will be mainstream again by the time Millies reach middle age!

Thanks for the info.

What the 3T Aged in the Anglo-sphere are up to:

Originally Posted by C(ongressional)Q(uarterly)Politics

Commission Proposes Formal Role for Congress in War Decisions


Two former secretaries of State unveiled a plan Tuesday to require better consultation between Congress and the president over sending U.S. troops into war.

The legislation, the product of a blue-ribbon commission headed by James A. Baker III, secretary of State under President George Bush, and Warren Christopher, who held the same office under President Bill Clinton, would establish a joint congressional committee and require that the president consult with its members before sending the military into battle.

“This statute gives Congress a seat at the table in deciding whether or not to go to war — not just a seat at the table, but one with a permanent staff, a permanent professional staff, and access to all the available intelligence information,” Christopher said.

Christopher and Baker urged Congress and a new administration to quickly take up their proposal, and said they had reached out to the campaigns of Sens. Barack Obama , D-Ill., and John McCain , R-Ariz.

The plan also would require Congress to vote on a concurrent resolution to authorize the conflict within 30 days after military action begins. If that resolution fails, it would allow an expedited vote on a joint resolution of disapproval, which would become law only with the president’s signature or over his or her veto.

Any military action expected to last more than a week would require consultation, and formal consultation would continue every two months. If action requires secrecy, the president would have to consult within three days after the action began. Covert operations, humanitarian missions, limited reprisal against terrorists and repelling attacks on the United States would be exempt.

Under the Constitution, only Congress can declare war. However, since the end of World War II, presidents have committed the U.S. military to several conflicts without asking for declarations of war, though in some cases Congress has enacted authorizing resolutions, as it did in the run-up to the war in Iraq. Congress also has the power to limit spending for military operations, though it could be politically difficult to do so once U.S. troops have been committed to a conflict.

The proposal would replace the 1973 War Powers Resolution, which the commission concluded was ineffective at best and unconstitutional at worst.

_______
Yes, please we're aged British



There is little prospect of new life on either side of the Atlantic from such Silent antic.

Small town retailers is enjoying a comeback as more distant malls lose their price advantege due to higher gas prices.

"I just don't drive as much," said Herman Heaton, a 72-year-old retired lumber mill worker, leaning against a Chevy Silverado pickup that now costs him $80 to fill up. "We don't go to Mobile as much as we used to for shopping." Heaton said he now spends about $600 a month on gas, about 10 percent of his income and about double what he spent last year.

So now he says he's shopping locally.

Many stores in rural towns — from small independent shops to local chains — are starting to enjoy a little life after years of seeing customers bypass them for distant malls. While it may not reverse the decades-long decline of small-town shopping, it could lead national mall developers and merchants to rethink where to build and challenge a basic tenet of retailing: Build, and shoppers will come from miles away.

"The whole retail logic has been to build big mass stores that drew from a huge distance," said Robert Robicheaux, an economic development specialist at the University of Alabama. "Now, we need to reconsider that."

Sprawl has stalled. I suspect that in many cases there will be more building up rather than out as fuel costs become more of a factor in decision making.

I'd be interested in knowing how a retired lumber mill worker manages to have a $72,000 annual income, since $7,200 goes to fuel his truck.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I'd be interested in knowing how a retired lumber mill worker manages to have a $72,000 annual income, since $7,200 goes to fuel his truck.

I did the math too. I'm guessing that either the reporter made a math error with this figure or else he did some darn good retirement planning along the way.

The sooner people start acquire the mindset of this article, the better for this nation.

A Tipping Point?

July 4, 2008

Many of us will be celebrating the nation's independence today the old-fashioned way — at an outdoor gathering with food, fun and family. Americans can be counted on to take comfort in simple pleasures as the world is changing around them.

Certainly, some will opt to stay home and tend the barbecue grill rather than burn up gasoline costing more per tankful than most of us will spend on beer for our guests.

Our way of life has evolved over 232 years in ways that were unimaginable back when the Founders met in Philadelphia. But some years stand out as historical turning points. This could be one of them.

We wonder how America will function with the surge in energy costs that is making everything more expensive, from food to goods to getting to work. We cannot, alas, run on coffee, as the ads assert. The list of daily needs that depend on petroleum, directly or indirectly, is frighteningly long. How will the nation, fresh from a time of great prosperity, cope with deprivation?

Quality-of-life changes surely lie just ahead. These are scary times. But they are no less threatening than those the Founders confronted when creating a new nation from scratch.

Today, we look at their accomplishments with appropriate awe. A few noble men who believed in the principle of self-government and equality dared to challenge the king of England and his vast army for the right to stand on their own. And won.

They did it by uniting and acting together for the greater good.

This is a lesson for us all as we celebrate the endurance of the nation they forged and feel our way toward the future.

With change comes opportunity: new ways of getting information, renewable sources of energy, a push toward public transportation, making do with less, more civic engagement, new national leadership. Unlike the Founders, who got around on horseback, we have the freedom to communicate instantly, to tap the best minds in the world. We have the technology and the confidence to solve problems once thought daunting and even insoluble. We need to have faith in ourselves and in the proven ability of America to withstand challenges.

Meanwhile, enjoy the holiday.

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

The sooner people start acquire the mindset of this article, the better for this nation.

A Tipping Point?

July 4, 2008

Many of us will be celebrating the nation's independence today the old-fashioned way — at an outdoor gathering with food, fun and family. Americans can be counted on to take comfort in simple pleasures as the world is changing around them.

Certainly, some will opt to stay home and tend the barbecue grill rather than burn up gasoline costing more per tankful than most of us will spend on beer for our guests.

Our way of life has evolved over 232 years in ways that were unimaginable back when the Founders met in Philadelphia. But some years stand out as historical turning points. This could be one of them.

We wonder how America will function with the surge in energy costs that is making everything more expensive, from food to goods to getting to work. We cannot, alas, run on coffee, as the ads assert. The list of daily needs that depend on petroleum, directly or indirectly, is frighteningly long. How will the nation, fresh from a time of great prosperity, cope with deprivation?

Quality-of-life changes surely lie just ahead. These are scary times. But they are no less threatening than those the Founders confronted when creating a new nation from scratch.

Today, we look at their accomplishments with appropriate awe. A few noble men who believed in the principle of self-government and equality dared to challenge the king of England and his vast army for the right to stand on their own. And won.

They did it by uniting and acting together for the greater good.

This is a lesson for us all as we celebrate the endurance of the nation they forged and feel our way toward the future.

With change comes opportunity: new ways of getting information, renewable sources of energy, a push toward public transportation, making do with less, more civic engagement, new national leadership. Unlike the Founders, who got around on horseback, we have the freedom to communicate instantly, to tap the best minds in the world. We have the technology and the confidence to solve problems once thought daunting and even insoluble. We need to have faith in ourselves and in the proven ability of America to withstand challenges.

Meanwhile, enjoy the holiday.

First, we must spread the sacrifices more equitably. Without doubt, the current administration, incompetent as it has been at almost everything, has succeeded only at enriching those closest to him. That must change. If we must ration fuel or impose the double-nickel anew, then so be it. To be sure, any bailouts under this administration will be designed above all else to enrich or protect cronies, so I expect no real change until January 20. We might have to raise taxes on large earned incomes.

Second, We are going to need creative means of getting people closer to work -- like making it easier to exchange one property for another. Exchanging a home not in danger of foreclosure for one in foreclosure should be encouraged when the deal results in someone getting closer to work. That seems like more of an accounting transaction than any giveaway.

Third, we need tax credits to encourage people to save energy. That implies the replacement of inefficient heating and air-conditioning units, installation of better insulation and windows, and the replacement of gas-guzzler vehicles with new-generation vehicles. Tax credits work, and they stimulate production. The usual sign of a nasty recession or a depression is underproduction.

Originally Posted by pbrower2a

Second, We are going to need creative means of getting people closer to work -- like making it easier to exchange one property for another. Exchanging a home not in danger of foreclosure for one in foreclosure should be encouraged when the deal results in someone getting closer to work. That seems like more of an accounting transaction than any giveaway.

Interesting idea. I see a couple of problems, however.

First, there is the two-income household, where the two workers have jobs in different directions. For example, living in the DC area, you might have one spouse working in Maryland and another working in Virginia.

Second, people change jobs fairly often. You may be an IT specialist working on a contract in Maryland for a couple of years. Then that contract ends and you get another job (or even another assignment with the same employer) and presto, now you're working in Virginia.

I don't know the answer. Increasing telecommuting can help. And certainly, the problem of affordability, where the close-in homes are unaffordable, needs to be addressed.

Thought I'd post the Generational Calendar again showing the positions
of the generations.

FYI: 4th Turning started on August 29, 2005

Originally Posted by takascar2

Thought I'd post the Generational Calendar again showing the positions
of the generations.

FYI: 4th Turning started on August 29, 2005

Right. My oldest grandchild Mikaela, turned 8 on July 1st, is visibly turning out Millie. Her brother and cousins are pretty cleary Homies. And I see us Silent are now totally into Elderhood.

http://www.economist.com/world/na/di...ry_id=11792366

The American mood nowadays is really different from what it was just a few years ago.

3T or 4T sign

I've heard about how SUV vehicles in the United States have fallen out favor recently. That has not happened in Australia, the only vehicles which are falling out of favor in spite of USD 6 petrol prices are 6 cylinder and 8 cylinder sedans and station wagons. SUV's and Pickup Trucks remain as popular as ever.

Maybe the USA is in a early 4T, while Australia is still in the late 3T maybe.

Originally Posted by Tristan

I've heard about how SUV vehicles in the United States have fallen out favor recently. That has not happened in Australia, the only vehicles which are falling out of favor in spite of USD 6 petrol prices are 6 cylinder and 8 cylinder sedans and station wagons. SUV's and Pickup Trucks remain as popular as ever.

Maybe the USA is in a early 4T, while Australia is still in the late 3T maybe.

What are gas/petrol prices like in Oz? Have they been rising?

By the way, my sister and her family are in the Sydney area right now, visiting her husband's family.