I think this is it but I'm not sure.

We've been in a slow motion train wreck for 10 years now. To some extent the "catalyst" will be fixed by the historians in a decade or two. Americans generally think of the Revolution springing up out of nowhere beginning with Boston Tea Party and likewise the civil war with the election of Lincoln. It makes it "easier" to tell a story if you can simplify a long process into a one day event.

This might be the photogenic crisis moment or just part of the crisis coming to a head. Maybe the failure of Lehman will be seen as the moment, maybe the rescue of Fannie and Freddie, maybe this will. Afterwards a myth will be created around the event and it'll become a much bigger deal than it is contemporaneously. A lot of Americans thought 1929 was just another downturn and that things would get better after a year or two. Eventually the crash picked up the legend of brokers jumping out of windows and all that Jazz. The Florida land crash or the farm economy depression in the 20s might have looked just as much like a "catalyst" as the great crash to folks who were in the midst of them. Who knows? Maybe there will be a cataclysm that overshadows all we have seen so far that becomes "the" moment.

We'll have to see too what the "moral tale" that grows up around this. The story of the depression became one of stupid individual investors who bought stocks on margin and lost everything rather than of manipulated markets, holding companies and balance of payment issues. We were worried about communism after WW2 though, so the story was shaped and formed to give individuals more blame and corporations and governments less. I wonder if we had not bumped up against the Russians so quickly after the war how the history would have developed. I'll have to wait for the history books in 20-30 years to see if reckless homebuyers or reckless bankers are blamed for this catastrophe.

Well, enough dime store history without a license.

Originally Posted by DonRobbie

We've been in a slow motion train wreck for 10 years now.

I like to think it's been trickeling down for 30 years now. It's a real object lesson on the nature of pure capitalism.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

In one of my last conversations with Bill Strauss, we discussed some of the havoc wrought by the Boom, but I commented that things could have been worse. "You mean," he said, "we haven't started a civil war yet?"

No, we haven't; but by 1) creating the crisis through classic Boom self-indulgence on Wall Street, and 2) failing to agree on a temporary remedy through partisanship in the Boom-dominated House of Representatives, we have created an almost equally profound crisis in our national life.

This is it--without question. I move that this thread be closed. Any seconds?

We're all screwed, and I am not even kidding. I keep telling myself that it couldn't be avoided, that we had to follow the cycle. It's how we respond that really matters. I just hope that we can come together and get through it this time.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Is the banning of Marc Lamb from this site a sign that We B 4T?

Well, I'm still of the cascade school, and believe there will be many events which illustrate many problems that will be part of the 4T. No single marker is apt to illustrate a critical moment. None may surface as greatly more significant than all the others, or truly indicate a change in mood.

Yet, I wouldn't be surprised if one event or another in September through November of 08 gets slapped as the official cusp event. Sure, why not that one? ™

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

In one of my last conversations with Bill Strauss, we discussed some of the havoc wrought by the Boom, but I commented that things could have been worse. "You mean," he said, "we haven't started a civil war yet?"

No, we haven't; but by 1) creating the crisis through classic Boom self-indulgence on Wall Street, and 2) failing to agree on a temporary remedy through partisanship in the Boom-dominated House of Representatives, we have created an almost equally profound crisis in our national life.

This is it--without question. I move that this thread be closed. Any seconds?

I second that motion.

The Social Moment is upon us.

A federal court has dismissed a lawsuit to stop the supercollider from starting up. So there are limits to the jurisdiction of the US courts? It must be 4T!http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/30/sc...in&oref=slogin

Originally Posted by Mr. Reed

Does Neil Howe agree? He hasn't released anything yet on the events of this year. I definitely think that we are in a Crisis. But it is not totally unanimous. When the agreement is unanimous, I think this thread will fizzle on its own. No need to close it down.

I left this forum several years ago because it became obvious to me that the Fourth Turning would be an economic meltdown. (I also grew tired of the endless partisan bickering over our two-party dictatorship.) Since then I've been making lots of preparations that most would find extreme.

Whether the bailout passes or fails, the result will be the same. I'm expecting a Weimar Republic (hyperinflation) scenario here in the US soon (sooner if the bailout passes).

I didn't see a thread on it, so I thought I would post to inform this board that Neil Howe will be on Coast to Coast AM tonight:
http://www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2008/09/30.html

Apologies if this has already been referenced ad nauseum. I didn't feel like searching through all of the posts.

Originally Posted by Lorin

I left this forum several years ago because it became obvious to me that the Fourth Turning would be an economic meltdown. (I also grew tired of the endless partisan bickering over our two-party dictatorship.) Since then I've been making lots of preparations that most would find extreme.

Whether the bailout passes or fails, the result will be the same. I'm expecting a Weimar Republic (hyperinflation) scenario here in the US soon (sooner if the bailout passes).

I didn't see a thread on it, so I thought I would post to inform this board that Neil Howe will be on Coast to Coast AM tonight:
http://www.coasttocoastam.com/shows/2008/09/30.html

Apologies if this has already been referenced ad nauseum. I didn't feel like searching through all of the posts.

Thank you.

0005 CDT on KTRS/550 AM

I gather from Neil Howe's interview that 2008 is as good as date as any for the 4T.

I'll still maintain Katrina - Peak Housing - WMD truths of 2005-2006; but then I tend to point to the Panic of 1857 and not 1860 as a prior start-of-4T. And I know some argue 9/11 2001.

Anyway, its apparent Neil Howe is talking about 4T in the present tense, so I'll also throw my thoughts in that this thread has reached its due date.

We are 4T.

Originally Posted by Arkarch

I gather from Neil Howe's interview that 2008 is as good as date as any for the 4T.

I'll still maintain Katrina - Peak Housing - WMD truths of 2005-2006; but then I tend to point to the Panic of 1857 and not 1860 as a prior start-of-4T. And I know some argue 9/11 2001.

Anyway, its apparent Neil Howe is talking about 4T in the present tense, so I'll also throw my thoughts in that this thread has reached its due date.

We are 4T.

"Peak Housing". wonderful concept.

Originally Posted by Arkarch

We are 4T.

I tend to agree. We be 4T for sure now.

Originally Posted by Arkarch

I gather from Neil Howe's interview that 2008 is as good as date as any for the 4T.

I'll still maintain Katrina - Peak Housing - WMD truths of 2005-2006; but then I tend to point to the Panic of 1857 and not 1860 as a prior start-of-4T. And I know some argue 9/11 2001.

Anyway, its apparent Neil Howe is talking about 4T in the present tense, so I'll also throw my thoughts in that this thread has reached its due date.

We are 4T.

Some knowledgeable people point to 2005 as the date of Peak Oil.

Originally Posted by KaiserD2

In one of my last conversations with Bill Strauss, we discussed some of the havoc wrought by the Boom, but I commented that things could have been worse. "You mean," he said, "we haven't started a civil war yet?"

No, we haven't; but by 1) creating the crisis through classic Boom self-indulgence on Wall Street, and 2) failing to agree on a temporary remedy through partisanship in the Boom-dominated House of Representatives, we have created an almost equally profound crisis in our national life.

This is it--without question. I move that this thread be closed. Any seconds?

I was just reading through the 3T. Regarding 1 especially... Let's not forget our High-Flex NeoSeniors who helped this along like Johnny McSame.

I am just checking in after a very long absence. My view is that the triple jolt of the 2000 election, stock bubble burst, and then 9/11/01 all primed the country for the 4T mindset, but it took September 2008 to push us firmly into the new socioeconomic era. We're far from done. November 5 (the day after the election) could be another significant date, if the ideological stalemate starts to get ugly, such that a cultural crisis joins the economic one. All I know is that "regular people" are talking in 4T terms, which didn't happen prior to a couple of weeks ago. We're in the 4T, no doubt. It will be a long ride that shapes the country and us for the rest of our lives.

Originally Posted by Rich

I am just checking in after a very long absence. My view is that the triple jolt of the 2000 election, stock bubble burst, and then 9/11/01 all primed the country for the 4T mindset, but it took September 2008 to push us firmly into the new socioeconomic era. We're far from done. November 5 (the day after the election) could be another significant date, if the ideological stalemate starts to get ugly, such that a cultural crisis joins the economic one. All I know is that "regular people" are talking in 4T terms, which didn't happen prior to a couple of weeks ago. We're in the 4T, no doubt. It will be a long ride that shapes the country and us for the rest of our lives.

I'd give Katrina and the health care crisis a mention as well, reflecting a knowledge that we've let our safety nets weaken.

I'm not sure the 'ideological stalemate' will still be in place. We might be at the point where people are recognizing that problems have to be dealt with. Thus, the people whose dated world views do not allow them to see the problems will become marginalized. It will be interesting seeing how they deal with this, but it might not be relevant.

But consider the above to be nitpicks. At core, a good summary of the cascade.

Originally Posted by Bob Butler 54

Thus, the people whose dated world views do not allow them to see the problems will become marginalized.

Based on certain things Howe and Strauss said about 4T authoritarianism and 'rough and ready' justice, I would anticipate jail time for said 'Enemies of the People'. In fact, my own handle labels me as such, when translated from Stalin Era Sov-bureaucratese. (SVE = Socially Harmful Element, KRD = {guilty of} Counterrevolutionary Thought {and Speech, presumably}).

Mainly because I DON'T LIKE the idea of unilateral disarmament, especially during a 4T.

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

Based on certain things Howe and Strauss said about 4T authoritarianism and 'rough and ready' justice, I would anticipate jail time for said 'Enemies of the People'. In fact, my own handle labels me as such, when translated from Stalin Era Sov-bureaucratese. (SVE = Socially Harmful Element, KRD = {guilty of} Counterrevolutionary Thought {and Speech, presumably}).

Mainly because I DON'T LIKE the idea of unilateral disarmament, especially during a 4T.

Maybe not. The term in America was "Public Enemy"; in the early 1930s it was applied largely to outright criminals (financial cheats, Mafia gangsters, bank robbers, kidnappers); by 1940 it was applied to spies, saboteurs, and the German-American Bund. If the 1920s were the heyday of organized crime, then the 1930s were the time of the Great Crackdown. Capone -- imprisoned. Dillinger -- Pretty Boy Floyd -- Ma Barker -- Bonnie and Clyde -- killed by cops in gun battles. Bruno Hauptman -- executed for kidnapping and killing the Lindbergh baby. Lepke Buchalter -- executed for a gangland murder. 4T economics are hard times, and people get extremely intolerant of people who threaten their bare existence.

The 2010s will be a bad times in which to be financial cheats, terrorists, or druggies. Obama has a position paper on rural issues -- one of which is that he will crack down on meth activity. Farmers and sport hunters hate meth, and they will gladly rat on meth "cookers".

You are right about unilateral disarmament. Which of us mice will put a bell on the cat?

From '4th Turnings in History' chapter pg. 267:
"A Crisis catalyst occurs shortly after the old Prophet archetype reaches its apex of societal leadership, when its inclinations are LEAST checked by others. A regeneracy comes as the Prophet abandons any idea of deferral or retreat and binds the society to a Crisis course. A climax occurs when the Prophet expends its last burst of passion, just before descending rapidly from power."

I still think that all this occured right after 9/11(Quickly passing the Patriot Act & rushing off to Iraq) and who can deny that the Iraq war hasn't contributed to our current fiscal problems? Since then there hasn't really been a time when the inclinations were least checked. It surely isn't happening in regards to this new fiscal problem. No, since we were all fooled by the false information about the war, most have been more on guard than ever and it doesn't appear that we're gonna go back either.

This time around we have Silent McSame and 13er Obama. No Boomers this time around so it appears that the 'rapid descent from power' may already be at hand. From my humble POV Obama is already talking Regeneracy talk. i.e. "The right and left don't have the answers, we need a third way" etc. I wonder if Mr. Obama has read this material because he seems to get it...

I don't know why people have such a hard time wrapping their heads around it. The stock market crash of 1929 happened 12+ years before Pearl Harbor. 9/11 was the catalyst.

The generational Positions are still that of the late 1920's. WW2 ended 1945, civil war ended in 1865. Nomads were firmly in leadership positions in the mid 1930's, but are still about a decade from those positions today.

I doubt communism would play a role in this crisis, given that communism was discredited by the collapse of the USSR. They are very few communist countries today an you can distinguish between those few nations and by the fact that they are all one party states and absolutly do not hold elections. Communist countries do not hold elections, ever.

Regarding 9/11 it was clear after the attacks what needed to be done in response. As a result of this we have avenged 9/11 by conquering afghanistan. Although there is still heated arguments on whether saddam had WMDs, what is clear is that the administration and most of the populace believed that there were WMDs in iraq at the time, as a result we went after him and took out his regime.
Again regarding 9/11, it is clear that bin laden, much like tojo in 1941, either did not expect a US military response or severely underestimated it. From hindsight it is likely bin laden probably expected the taliban to withstand a US counterstrike. The taliban collapse and bin laden having to flee to northwest pakistan likely came as a complete shock to him. Using the pearl harbor comparison with 9/11, I say the current situation is equivalent to mid to late 1944, Bin laden is on the run and its only a matter of time before we get him.

Originally Posted by JustPassingThrough

I don't know why people have such a hard time wrapping their heads around it. The stock market crash of 1929 happened 12+ years before Pearl Harbor. 9/11 was the catalyst.

Originally Posted by Cynic Hero '86

Regarding 9/11 it was clear after the attacks what needed to be done in response. As a result of this we have avenged 9/11 by conquering afghanistan. Although there is still heated arguments on whether saddam had WMDs, what is clear is that the administration and most of the populace believed that there were WMDs in iraq at the time, as a result we went after him and took out his regime.
Again regarding 9/11, it is clear that bin laden, much like Tojo in 1941, either did not expect a US military response or severely underestimated it. From hindsight it is likely bin laden probably expected the taliban to withstand a US counter-strike. The taliban collapse and bin laden having to flee to northwest pakistan likely came as a complete shock to him. Using the pearl harbor comparison with 9/11, I say the current situation is equivalent to mid to late 1944, Bin laden is on the run and its only a matter of time before we get him.

I have generally seen Bush 43 as the Buchanan / Hoover equivalent. His original response to September 11th was to have been serial unilateral invasion of assorted Middle East countries. We would be welcomed as liberators. The costs of the military operations would have been covered by oil revenue. Military control of the oil would help ease the problems coming out of peak oil. Democratic institutions were going to spontaneously spring up wherever we went. After a brief rest and respite after each conquest, we could move on and invade the next country.

Either it did not go as expected, he lied to us horribly about what he expected, or some combination thereof. Until the change of tactics that came with the surge, and until Al Qaida's doctrine of creating chaos was published, it seemed as if Bush 43's Afghanistan - Iraq Wars were failures, that the doctrines coming out of them were bad. Well, the original doctrines were bad, at least the ones made public. Even if it is now plausible that we could exit the Middle East within a few years with some semblance of victory, the military lessons learned are real. Meddling in the Third World is expensive. Putting troops near the oil is not cost effective. We are not going to be greeted as liberators. We would be stupid to launch similar wars in the near future.

So, is Bush 43 the equivalent of Hoover or FDR? On his watch many learned some very valuable lessons about the use of force during this crisis. We must not forget and will not be able to forget these lessons. Thing is, Europe, the Pentagon and much of Blue America already knew much of which the Bush administration so painfully learned at such a high cost. It takes much blood, toil, tears and sweat to shift values. Red American values are now shifted. Are those whose values had shifted before it all started expected honor those who proceeded in ignorance and stupidity?

I have called the aftermath of September 11th a false regeneracy. It felt an awful lot like Pearl Harbor in the beginning. There were an awful lot of doubts in the of the Bush Administration. Then too, there were an awful lot of doubts in the middle of the American Revolution, Civil War and to a lesser extent World War II. Grey Champions are honored more in history than in the newspapers of their own day. Lincoln read the Richmond newspapers to confirm that Jefferson Davis was vilified at least as much as he. Bush 43 may still be under the delusion that history will remember him as a Great Man. It might be that the Surge and the current bail out bill might become cores of the values that pull us through the crisis. Do we discount entirely that it was Bush 43's policies that made the Surge and bail out necessary, and bless him as the Grey Champion?

I would say no. We might have to wait a decade or three to get a fair perspective.

Is the cascade part of the unraveling, or part of the crisis? Is the military phase of the crisis centered on Afghanistan and Iraq, or will there be other similar or larger conflicts further on?

My own approach to turning theory sees a split in values opening in the awakening, with the new values only triumphing and coming to fruition in the following crisis. In this crisis, the Red and Blue value sets came out of the Red and Blue Awakenings. The Blue values are the progressive, with gender equality, racial equality, anti-war and ecology being the major new elements being added to the culture. Bush has been too militaristic and too anti-ecology for my taste. I view his administration as a disaster. I see his failure as breaking the Red / Blue stalemate. There should in the near future come a much less divided government able to make progress on major issues.

But whether one might choose to view his eight years as the military phase of the crisis, with perhaps an economic phase to follow, might be an open question.

Bush 43 didn't unite the country. Oh, very briefly, after September 11th, he got the benefit of an instinctive follow-our-leader moment. It didn't hold. It fell apart. FDR's election victory was the social moment that started to unite the nation after the first shock of 1929. FDR's popularity only grew from there. If Obama holds on from here, taking the coming election, he will have the potential for a similar moment.

Anyway, we have a messy crisis, with military, economic, cultural and ecological elements. We have needed many catalysts to illustrate many problems. It has not been an easy process to come to a point where all of the above problems are apt to be addressed.

At some level, whether we call the Bush era the cascade, the first half of the crisis, or both, is kind of arbitrary. It is a question of what label we want to stick on it. Only followers of cycle theory will care.

Whether Bush 43 continues to be viewed as among our worst presidents will be much more of a public question.

My quibble with 9/11 is that I dont think there was a 4T attitude shift within the country. This in no way diminishes the horror for those connected or nearest the attacks or the military that went out in response to it. My vantage point is from the westerrn United States - Vegas - Phoenix - California Coast - and the 4T was just not here.

Late 2005 was the beginning of a true shift. We began to realize that government was failing us. It failed us by not being able to respond to the Hurricane Katrina crisis as we expected. It failed us by showing us Intelligence failures that rallied us into a long war that may be more ideological than necessary. It failed us by managing military and terror prisoners in way never expected in our society. Financial regulation failures allowed us to double the price of homes in a short year only to see them drop as fast or faster since 2006. In short, we knew something was going bad.

Coming into the current financial credit credit, the shift was already occurring. Both major political parties nominated candidates that were not culture warriors. Why not a Clinton or a Guilliani or a Romney? We ended up with McCain and Obama - so the change was already occurring. Those who finally realized we had a crisis two weeks ago were late to the party.

As to the previous crisis period - we did not just immediately dump into a crisis on the October 1929 crash. In fact, stock prices came back up by April of 1930. It was the slow grind and the banking failures in the early 1930s, especially 1932-33, that finally brought the economic downturn to roost.

Likewise the collapse of the Housing Market started in 2006, and it is now with the failure of the credit system that we see the true picture.

If 1929 is the marked start of the prior 4T, I submit that late 2005 / 2006 was the start of the current 4T.

In any event - the joy of understanding S&H is also the misery of understanding S&H.

Originally Posted by Arkarch

In any event - the joy of understanding S&H is also the misery of understanding S&H.

It isn't that hard to understand S&H. It's just that everyone else understands them differently. ™ The last few days, this thread in particular has had a lot of interesting and valid posts. They just contradict one another somewhat.