Originally Posted by playwrite

For me, a sense of something wicked comes our way.

Black swan.

Not a black swan, but rather an event that has been reliably predicted for over 30 years: Peak Oil. Global petroleum production peaked in July 2008.

Industrial economies run on energy, and until we can replace petroleum as an energy source we're in for rocky times.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

As far as the other points mentioned, I recently pointed out on one of the other threads that in many ways not much has changed, and I believe most are hoping that things were revert to the old ways very shortly. So far we have only given lip service to things such as doing for the environment.

No, what I see right now is a full-court press, in many quarters, to get this country back to 3T 'business as usual'.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher
As far as the other points mentioned, I recently pointed out on one of the other threads that in many ways not much has changed, and I believe most are hoping that things were revert to the old ways very shortly. So far we have only given lip service to things such as doing for the environment.

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

No, what I see right now is a full-court press, in many quarters, to get this country back to 3T 'business as usual'.

Welcome to the 4T gentleman.
Congressional opponets of healthcare reform want to go into a 3T style recess with one sixth of the economy in limbo.
This is the time of "bump and grind." Such times will be with us for years to come.

The question is how many years?

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Welcome to the 4T gentleman.
Congressional opponents of healthcare reform want to go into a 3T style recess with one sixth of the economy in limbo.

Perhaps more disclosure may make this attitude and communication with the dance of special interest between the WH and Congressional Dems easlier to gulp down. Its a good time to have slow time when you are about to disrupt the 1/6 of the economy. It will happen when the White House and Congress actually reads the bill they are RAHMming through. Especially when the medicine they are brewing is snake oil at best.

Originally Posted by wtrg8

Perhaps more disclosure may make this attitude and communication with the dance of special interest between the WH and Congressional Dems easlier to gulp down. Its a good time to have slow time when you are about to disrupt the 1/6 of the economy. It will happen when the White House and Congress actually reads the bill they are RAHMming through...

Get real.

You think anyone actually reads those things? They just vote based on party lines and executive summaries (if even those). It's not like they'll have to live with any of the details they overlook.

We're looking at the very legitimacy of the system itself. The banks got their bailout and they didn't have to reform themselves to get it. The economic system is going to crash again. It's a question of when not if.
Simply put, the Federal super-structure is being tested right now. Obama ran as an advocate of national healthcare, there was no ambiguity about the point. If our constitutional order has been warped off the small "r" republican theory and small "d" practice that Jefferson and Hamilton argued about in the 1790's to the point that the common pople have no stake or sway in the system, then there will be a revolution before this 4T is up.

How's that for a mega-crises?

Originally Posted by herbal tee

We're looking at the very legitimacy of the system itself.

YOU HAVE HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD!!!

The legitimacy of the American system has been in ferocious dispute ever since the 2T. Since a 4T is supposed to be the time when the issues raised by the 2T are resolved (after the inaction of the 3T), it is all but inevitable that the question of America's legitimacy will be dealt with - one way or the other. The only questions will be whether America itself will survive it, and if so, in what form?

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

YOU HAVE HIT THE NAIL RIGHT ON THE HEAD!!!

The legitimacy of the American system has been in ferocious dispute ever since the 2T. Since a 4T is supposed to be the time when the issues raised by the 2T are resolved (after the inaction of the 3T), it is all but inevitable that the question of America's legitimacy will be dealt with - one way or the other. The only questions will be whether America itself will survive it, and if so, in what form?

IMO, most of our wounds are self inflicted. And the culture war is to blame for a lot of it.
We do have a traditionalist political culture dominant in the south and to a lesser extent in the great plains which allowed for the 3T era one sided alliance between social conservatives and the corporatist plutocrats. In traditionalist cultures "god" is always on the side of the powerful barring the kind of 4Tish turmoil that can disrupt the ancient system. We may well see that kind of transformative crises before this 4T is over. To return to the larger point, the current blunderbuss over birth certificates, hispanic lawyers and teabags indcates to me that the people who have the most to lose in the next few years are indeed trying to run away from the future rather than face it.

But then again, that tends to be true of any ruling class early in a 4T.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

IMO, most of our wounds are self inflicted. And the culture war is to blame for a lot of it.
We do have a traditionalist political culture dominant in the south and to a lesser extent in the great plains which allowed for the 3T era one sided alliance between social conservatives and the corporatist plutocrats. In traditionalist cultures "god" is always on the side of the powerful barring the kind of 4Tish turmoil that can disrupt the ancient system. We may well see that kind of transformative crises before this 4T is over. To return to the larger point, the current blunderbuss over birth certificates, hispanic lawyers and teabags indcates to me that the people who have the most to lose in the next few years are indeed trying to run away from the future rather than face it.

But then again, that tends to be true of any ruling class early in a 4T.

I would agree that most of our wounds are self-inflicted, but I would date many of those wounds back to the 2T. and the doubt cast on our system's legitimacy during that period. Result: the only people who rose to defend that legitimacy were the traditionalist alliance you spoke of, thereby further discrediting the entire American system in the eyes of progressives. That is why I have my doubts as to whether the country itself will survive this 4T - the factions who would be supposed to reform it have been pre-programmed over the last 40 years, IMO, to toss out the baby with the bathwater. The question thus becomes, what would the revolutionaries do with the power once they have seized it (assuming there is a violent revolution)?

Originally Posted by wtrg8

Perhaps more disclosure may make this attitude and communication with the dance of special interest between the WH and Congressional Dems easlier to gulp down. Its a good time to have slow time when you are about to disrupt the 1/6 of the economy. It will happen when the White House and Congress actually reads the bill they are RAHMming through. Especially when the medicine they are brewing is snake oil at best.

Is this the Fox "News" wing-nut talking point, now?

I'm all for disrupting the health insurance scam.

Originally Posted by Odin

Is this the Fox "News" wing-nut talking point, now?

I'm all for disrupting the health insurance scam.

No, discuss the same thing with a liberal friend of mine and he agrees on slowing the charge for a bill before Congress recess. In other threads I have posted, GEHA should be the base for the new Health Care legislation. This all the Democrats got with a self inflicted blow within their own party and the GOP indifference.

Originally Posted by wtrg8

No, discuss the same thing with a liberal friend of mine and he agrees on slowing the charge for a bill before Congress recess. In other threads I have posted, GEHA should be the base for the new Health Care legislation. This all the Democrats got with a self inflicted blow within their own party and the GOP indifference.

GEHA is not a bad start. BUt whatever they do, the Democrats need to press their advantege now. No meaningful bills get passed after the August recess.
The politics game is political. And new presidents who want a second term remember this.

Originally Posted by SVE-KRD

I would agree that most of our wounds are self-inflicted, but I would date many of those wounds back to the 2T.

The two are interrelated. Remember, the Powell Memo was written in 1971, right in the heart of the awakening.

and the doubt cast on our system's legitimacy during that period. Result: the only people who rose to defend that legitimacy were the traditionalist alliance you spoke of, thereby further discrediting the entire American system in the eyes of progressives. That is why I have my doubts as to whether the country itself will survive this 4T - the factions who would be supposed to reform it have been pre-programmed over the last 40 years, IMO, to toss out the baby with the bathwater.

Your forgetting that the bulk of energy behind the new progressiveism is the millies. Everyday the old culture warriors become less relevant as they die off. We have a long way to go in this 4T. Unless we engage in 3T level stupidity, and yes there are forces (mostly Republican leaning) that want this to happen, we may yet overcome.

The question thus becomes, what would the revolutionaries do with the power once they have seized it (assuming there is a violent revolution)?

Ask me again in a month!
No, really.
If the healthcare bill passes, it is an almost certain sign that the insulation of the beltway from reality has ended in time. We would most likely be in regeneracy and (from a 1T perspective) a happy end to history is at least a plausible outcome...



...Until circa 2045, when the next awakening arrives. ::

Originally Posted by Jim Blowers

The late 18th century Fourth Turning began with a Tea Party. The mid-19th century Fourth Turning began with a presidential election. The mid-20th century Fourth Turning began with a stock market crash.

Within the past 8 months, we have had a tea party, a presidential election, and a stock market crash. A Fourth Turning to beat all Fourth Turnings?

No question about it. From a socionomic wave principal perspective we are correcting a grand supercycle magnitude misallocation of resources. The last corrective wave at this degree of trend ran from 1720 crash to the end of century revolutions.

Originally Posted by puravidavid

No question about it. From a socionomic wave principal perspective we are correcting a grand supercycle magnitude misallocation of resources. The last corrective wave at this degree of trend ran from 1720 crash to the end of century revolutions.

Well, there is that connection with the Glorious Revolution popping up again.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

We would most likely be in regeneracy and (from a 1T perspective) a happy end to history is at least a plausible outcome...



...Until circa 2045, when the next awakening arrives. ::

I myself hope to be safely in my grave, by then .

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

I myself hope to be safely in my grave, by then .

Oh Kevin, on January 1, 2045, you'll only be 86. Your grandfather made it to 91; there's every possibility that you will too.

Originally Posted by The Wonkette

Oh Kevin, on January 1, 2045, you'll only be 86. Your grandfather made it to 91; there's every possibility that you will too.

Yeah, maybe. Just don't ask me to spend my last 3 and a 1/2 years inside a freaking nursing home. It won't happen!

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

As far as the other points mentioned, I recently pointed out on one of the other threads that in many ways not much has changed, and I believe most are hoping that things were revert to the old ways very shortly. So far we have only given lip service to things such as doing for the environment.

Welcome to the 4T gentleman.
Congressional opponets of healthcare reform want to go into a 3T style recess with one sixth of the economy in limbo.
This is the time of "bump and grind." Such times will be with us for years to come.

The question is how many years?

Sad but true. I was hoping that we might avoid the double pain that happened in the GP, but it seems that we're following that play book to a tee.

Originally Posted by Justin '77

Originally Posted by wtrg8

Perhaps more disclosure may make this attitude and communication with the dance of special interest between the WH and Congressional Dems easlier to gulp down. Its a good time to have slow time when you are about to disrupt the 1/6 of the economy. It will happen when the White House and Congress actually reads the bill they are RAHMming through. Especially when the medicine they are brewing is snake oil at best.

Get real.

You think anyone actually reads those things? They just vote based on party lines and executive summaries (if even those). It's not like they'll have to live with any of the details they overlook.

I doubt that any bill is read by any politician at any time, unless they are actively engaged in writing it. Even then, they stick to the Cliff Notes, and hand the heavy lifting to staff.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I doubt that any bill is read by any politician at any time, unless they are actively engaged in writing it. Even then, they stick to the Cliff Notes, and hand the heavy lifting to staff.

Way it looks, it will not pass as is.

Originally Posted by wtrg8

Way it looks, it will not pass as is.

Too Byzantine, probably. How many Silent Congresscritters does it take to change a light bulb?

What does the healthcare bill need long term?

See post 108 here.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I doubt that any bill is read by any politician at any time, unless they are actively engaged in writing it. Even then, they stick to the Cliff Notes, and hand the heavy lifting to staff.

Ahh.. Representative DemocracyTM in action.

Originally Posted by Marx & Lennon

I doubt that any bill is read by any politician at any time, unless they are actively engaged in writing it. Even then, they stick to the Cliff Notes, and hand the heavy lifting to staff.

I know of one three-term representative (Bill Orton, D-Utah) who made a point of reading every bill before voting on it.