Doesn't the Occupy movement all by itself lend us to believe that after a decade or so perhaps being on the cusp, that we are finally into the 4T full throttle?

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Doesn't the Occupy movement all by itself lend us to believe that after a decade or so perhaps being on the cusp, that we are finally into the 4T full throttle?

Those who doubt it were maybe waiting for World War III?

From Reuters: Subculture of Americans prepares for civilization's collapse

[Patty] Tegeler is among a growing subculture of Americans who refer to themselves informally as "preppers." Some are driven by a fear of imminent societal collapse, others are worried about terrorism, and many have a vague concern that an escalating series of natural disasters is leading to some type of environmental cataclysm.

They are following in the footsteps of hippies in the 1960s who set up communes to separate themselves from what they saw as a materialistic society, and the survivalists in the 1990s who were hoping to escape the dictates of what they perceived as an increasingly secular and oppressive government.

Preppers, though are, worried about no government.

'm worried about no government, too. In my lecture on population, I point out the decline in world population that resulted from the fall of the Western Roman Empire. That's an important example of how organized human behavior, e.g. centralized government, increases carrying capacity (K), and how the loss of government causes K to decrease, sometimes dramatically.

Back to the article.

Tegeler, 57, has turned her home in rural Virginia into a "survival center," complete with a large generator, portable heaters, water tanks, and a two-year supply of freeze-dried food that her sister recently gave her as a birthday present. She says that in case of emergency, she could survive indefinitely in her home. And she thinks that emergency could come soon.

"I think this economy is about to fall apart," she said.

3780 people have recommended this article on Facebook and 568 have tweeted it. For two days it was the most read article on Reuters and for four days it was the most commented on, with 369 comments.

National Geographic Channel is running a series on preppers. I have a video embedded on my blog, along with links to more. Definitely 4T material.

Originally Posted by Brian Beecher

Doesn't the Occupy movement all by itself lend us to believe that after a decade or so perhaps being on the cusp, that we are finally into the 4T full throttle?

I would think so. Shared purpose, greater equality, and no effort to assert the cultural agenda of a younger generation (does the Millennial Generation even have a cultural identity, let alone agenda?) looks 4T. It may be the subtle effects of Occupy Wall Street that endure.

Originally Posted by The Pervert

From Reuters: Subculture of Americans prepares for civilization's collapse

Just out of curiosity:

Whenever I read about folks who are preparing for apocalypse, I can't help but wonder about the practicality of it. That is, unless one has sufficient organization, and enough fellow travelers to defend a rural stronghold, it strikes me that roving groups of bandits would eventually kill off any small, family-sized groups, and take their stuff.

Time would work against them. The better they were prepared, that is, the more stuff they had stored away, the more attractive target they would make, especially after others who were relatively unprepared got desparate. And I'm thinking it wouldn't matter how many rounds of ammunition you had or how many .357 mags you had - if you don't have enough folks of similar mindset to defend it all, you're toast.

Do you get that they consider this?

Originally Posted by Odin

Ireland's young flee abroad as economic meltdown looms

So much for the "Irish Tiger" the Neo-Liberals pimped so much.

So apparently Ireland ISN'T in a 1T. I thought you guys said they were...

Originally Posted by TnT

Just out of curiosity:

Whenever I read about folks who are preparing for apocalypse, I can't help but wonder about the practicality of it. That is, unless one has sufficient organization, and enough fellow travelers to defend a rural stronghold, it strikes me that roving groups of bandits would eventually kill off any small, family-sized groups, and take their stuff.

Time would work against them. The better they were prepared, that is, the more stuff they had stored away, the more attractive target they would make, especially after others who were relatively unprepared got desparate. And I'm thinking it wouldn't matter how many rounds of ammunition you had or how many .357 mags you had - if you don't have enough folks of similar mindset to defend it all, you're toast.

Do you get that they consider this?

It gives people the illusion of control. That is no small thing.

Originally Posted by 92man

So apparently Ireland ISN'T in a 1T. I thought you guys said they were...

Of course they aren't. Ireland is on the same saecular timeline as the rest of the British Isles. Even if they weren't blitzed during the War, they were practically close enough to hear it...and surely had to know that if England fell to the Germans, they'd be next on Hitler's list.

Originally Posted by The Pervert

From Reuters: Subculture of Americans prepares for civilization's collapse

Aside from being the 4T, how is this diff'rent from Y2K?

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

Of course they aren't. Ireland is on the same saecular timeline as the rest of the British Isles.

Nope, can't agree! In fact, the case might be made that if Ireland and England had ever been on the same timeline, union between the two states might have been a lot more peaceful. But Ireland has crises when England is in a 3T, repeatedly demonstrating that a smaller, more determined force can often defeat a larger, apathetic one.

The Republic of Ireland spent the 1910s in civil war, the nation was founded in the 1920s, and the constitution was ratified in the 1930s. Those aren't 3T events at all.

Even if they weren't blitzed during the War, they were practically close enough to hear it...and surely had to know that if England fell to the Germans, they'd be next on Hitler's list.

Actually the Irish economy was growing like crazy during the 30s and 40s, they stayed neutral in the war, and if England fell some might want to make that a national holiday. However, there were complaints of a rigid society. 1T.

It goes on. From the mid 40s through the 50s, reform begins of healthcare, the education system, and women's rights. Religious institutions lead the charge. Very 2T.

In the 60s and early 70s there's not much of political or economic note beside the increasing division and charged rhetoric of political groups. Very 3T.

In the late 70s this division increasingly turns to outright urban warfare. Then in the 80s, the economy was so bad that it makes 2012 look like a time of plenty and opportunity (unemployment peaked in 1985 at 17%). Very 4T.

The 90s saw a rapid decline in unemployment and quick growth in the economy (much like the late 20s to early 40s!) During the Tiger 1T wages tripled, so even though they have flattened out since 2008, people are doing much, much better than they were in the 1980s. Unemployment has gone back up to 14.4%, but median household income is still in the top 10 globally, healthcare is incredibly cheap, and unemployment benefits are generous. So I don't get that sense of fighting to survive, especially not when there are elder nomads hanging around reminding the kids of how good they have it. (what a fun cohort!)

So although the economy sucks for Ireland right now, it definitely doesn't suck as bad as it did 30 years ago. There is also a much more significant social safety net in place than there was in the 1980s. That sort of takes the edge off the urgency and uncertainty of a 4T!

Instead, there is a surprising amount of talk about religion these days, from the blasphemy laws, diplomatic status of the Vatican, civil partnerships and LGBT rights... starting to sound a little 2T.

I'm starting to wonder if we need an evidence we are in a 4T or 1T thread.

Originally Posted by pizal81

I'm starting to wonder if we need an evidence we are in a 4T or 1T thread.

I'd wait until after the elections--the 2016 elections.

Originally Posted by TnT

Just out of curiosity:

Whenever I read about folks who are preparing for apocalypse, I can't help but wonder about the practicality of it. That is, unless one has sufficient organization, and enough fellow travelers to defend a rural stronghold, it strikes me that roving groups of bandits would eventually kill off any small, family-sized groups, and take their stuff.

Time would work against them. The better they were prepared, that is, the more stuff they had stored away, the more attractive target they would make, especially after others who were relatively unprepared got desparate. And I'm thinking it wouldn't matter how many rounds of ammunition you had or how many .357 mags you had - if you don't have enough folks of similar mindset to defend it all, you're toast.

Do you get that they consider this?

No; and the best survival advice I ever heard was to start with the community you are in and take it from there. Whether than means getting to know the neighbors (hard, these days) or volunteering where opportunities are available, or having a skill other people would be willing to trade you things for. ("I'll cook you dinner; and would you mind putting up this curtain rod for me?" - works best if you are already on that kind of terms with the other person).

If you're not in a good place you can either work towards making it better, or find a good place, preferably where you have family or close friends. But this blogger pointed out just what you did - trying to go it alone in a backwoods cabin with stocks of this'n'that is an open invitation to any bad guys in the neighborhood. Archaeologists note how many stashes of gold and silver - often Roman coins - were found in the ruins of villas that had been burned to the ground and sacked after the legions departed.

Originally Posted by TnT

Just out of curiosity:

Whenever I read about folks who are preparing for apocalypse, I can't help but wonder about the practicality of it. That is, unless one has sufficient organization, and enough fellow travelers to defend a rural stronghold, it strikes me that roving groups of bandits would eventually kill off any small, family-sized groups, and take their stuff.

Or just wear a bunch of camo & military-looking garb, carry a few guns with ammo, drive in a jeep, pretend to be from the Army sent to "reorganize" a territory, and wishing to "spread the wealth around".

Aka the plot to the Twilight Zone episode: The Old Man in the Cave

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by JohnMc82

Nope, can't agree! In fact, the case might be made that if Ireland and England had ever been on the same timeline, union between the two states might have been a lot more peaceful. But Ireland has crises when England is in a 3T, repeatedly demonstrating that a smaller, more determined force can often defeat a larger, apathetic one.

The Republic of Ireland spent the 1910s in civil war, the nation was founded in the 1920s, and the constitution was ratified in the 1930s. Those aren't 3T events at all.



Actually the Irish economy was growing like crazy during the 30s and 40s, they stayed neutral in the war, and if England fell some might want to make that a national holiday. However, there were complaints of a rigid society. 1T.

It goes on. From the mid 40s through the 50s, reform begins of healthcare, the education system, and women's rights. Religious institutions lead the charge. Very 2T.

In the 60s and early 70s there's not much of political or economic note beside the increasing division and charged rhetoric of political groups. Very 3T.

In the late 70s this division increasingly turns to outright urban warfare. Then in the 80s, the economy was so bad that it makes 2012 look like a time of plenty and opportunity (unemployment peaked in 1985 at 17%). Very 4T.

The 90s saw a rapid decline in unemployment and quick growth in the economy (much like the late 20s to early 40s!) During the Tiger 1T wages tripled, so even though they have flattened out since 2008, people are doing much, much better than they were in the 1980s. Unemployment has gone back up to 14.4%, but median household income is still in the top 10 globally, healthcare is incredibly cheap, and unemployment benefits are generous. So I don't get that sense of fighting to survive, especially not when there are elder nomads hanging around reminding the kids of how good they have it. (what a fun cohort!)

So although the economy sucks for Ireland right now, it definitely doesn't suck as bad as it did 30 years ago. There is also a much more significant social safety net in place than there was in the 1980s. That sort of takes the edge off the urgency and uncertainty of a 4T!

Instead, there is a surprising amount of talk about religion these days, from the blasphemy laws, diplomatic status of the Vatican, civil partnerships and LGBT rights... starting to sound a little 2T.

So that would make the band U2 Civics, interesting. "Bloody Sunday" is definitely a 4T song.

Originally Posted by pizal81

I'm starting to wonder if we need an evidence we are in a 4T or 1T thread.

We are nowhere near the 1T. The "1T" things David K. claims to see is merely residual 3T "compromise" mentality.

Originally Posted by Odin

So that would make the band U2 Civics, interesting. "Bloody Sunday" is definitely a 4T song.

Personally I see the Celtic-based & Slavic-based civilizations usually being a turning ahead of the Germanic-based & Latin-based civilizations. In England's case, it got adopted into the Germanic sphere (Grosser Deutschland & Scandinavia) by the Anglo-Saxon invasion, the Norse raids, and the Danish rule of the Cnuts.

What's odd is that Europe has such a North-South hegemony while the Eastern & Western cultures have often been "second fiddle" to the Northern & Southern cultures.

~Chas'88

Originally Posted by The Grey Badger

No; and the best survival advice I ever heard was to start with the community you are in and take it from there. Whether than means getting to know the neighbors (hard, these days) or volunteering where opportunities are available, or having a skill other people would be willing to trade you things for. ("I'll cook you dinner; and would you mind putting up this curtain rod for me?" - works best if you are already on that kind of terms with the other person).

If you're not in a good place you can either work towards making it better, or find a good place, preferably where you have family or close friends. But this blogger pointed out just what you did - trying to go it alone in a backwoods cabin with stocks of this'n'that is an open invitation to any bad guys in the neighborhood. Archaeologists note how many stashes of gold and silver - often Roman coins - were found in the ruins of villas that had been burned to the ground and sacked after the legions departed.

The survivalist crap would be funny if it weren't so pathetic and indicative of the pathological individualism of our society. Surviing in a collapse would, as you say, require the community coming together, not individuals with basements full of MREs and automatic weapons

Originally Posted by Odin

The survivalist crap would be funny if it weren't so pathetic and indicative of the pathological individualism of our society. Surviing in a collapse would, as you say, require the community coming together, not individuals with basements full of MREs and automatic weapons

However...if, say, my neighborhood needed to band together for our common defense, it might be a good thing if one or two of those types lived among us. We'd have a leg up on those communities with less hardware and expertise. Just sayin'.I keep coming back to Octavia Butler's nightmarish novel, "Parable Of The Sower".

Originally Posted by Roadbldr '59

I keep coming back to Octavia Butler's nightmarish novel, "Parable Of The Sower".

What a coincidence, I just bought that at the thrift store I work at yesterday. I'll probably read it after I finish the "Riverworld" Sci-Fi series by Philip Jose Farmer.

Originally Posted by 92man

So apparently Ireland ISN'T in a 1T. I thought you guys said they were...

This is one of the reasons why I don't like the idea of calling a 1T a "high."

Going into a 1T does not mean that a country gets something close to heaven on earth for 20 years, no.
It simply means that the crises of the previous saeculum has been resolved to the point that the new generational constellation with nomads as elders, civics in midlife and artists in young adulthood ect. deal with issues in a way quite unlike the past crises. Let me quote a telling line from the article:

Originally Posted by The Guardian

Polish immigrants, whose arrival in Ireland less than a decade ago increased the workforce by an astonishing 20%, have left in orderly fashion and with no complaints about their treatment. More worrying is the trend for the young Irish to follow them abroad.

Now does this sound like a country in the midst of 4T hysteria or one going though an austere recovery?



And a 1T can be quite austere. Was there anything high about the Stalinist period of the Soviet Union?
And it was during a 1T that Mexico lost its northern half to the US in the period from 1846 to 1848.
It was also during an American 1T when the White House was burnt to the ground in 1814.
Bad times can happen in any turning. What is telling is the reaction to the events.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

This is one of the reasons why I don't like the idea of calling a 1T a "high."

Going into a 1T does not mean that a country gets something close to heaven on earth for 20 years, no.
It simply means that the crises of the previous saeculum has been resolved to the point that the new generational constellation with nomads as elders, civics in midlife and artists in young adulthood ect. deal with issues in a way quite unlike the past crises. Let me quote a telling line from the article:



Now does this sound like a country in the midst of 4T hysteria or one going though an austere recovery?



And a 1T can be quite austere. Was there anything high about the Stalinist period of the Soviet Union?
And it was during a 1T that Mexico lost its northern half to the US in the period from 1846 to 1848.
It was also during an American 1T when the White House was burnt to the ground in 1814.
Bad times can happen in any turning. What is telling is the reaction to the events.

I think 92 Man, missed all of those discussions about how a High doesn't always have to feel rosy. Being at the forum for about a year now has allowed me to see the cycle of conversations as we get new posters.

Anyway, I had those thoughts too.

I'm surprised Obama's speech full of 9-11 talk hasn't brought back the ol 9-11 start day discussion (please everyone, don't take this comment as a prompt to).

Originally Posted by millennialX

I think 92 Man, missed all of those discussions about how a High doesn't always have to feel rosy. Being at the forum for about a year now has allowed me to see the cycle of conversations as we get new posters.

Anyway, I had those thoughts too.

Yeah, that's why I tried not to make it personal.

Actually, IIRC the only reason why the idea that a 1T is high took off was because in Generations the authors referred to the demographic baby boom years, the period from 1946 to 1964, as " the great American high." I actually thougth that thsi was a good discription of that era and I still do. But unintended consequences being what they are, the phraise took on a life of it's own and you seldon, if ever see the term outer driven era used on the forum to refer to a 1T.
And as I've written before, I believe that the best one word discription of a 1T is 'recover.' After all, a 1T can be high or austere, or as we've seen in Ireland this time around, a bit of both. But it is always a recovery from the transforming crises that preceeded it.

Originally Posted by herbal tee

Yeah, that's why I tried not to make it personal.

Actually, IIRC the only reason why the idea that a 1T is high took off was because in Generations the authors referred to the demographic baby boom years, the period from 1946 to 1964, as " the great American high." I actually thougth that thsi was a good discription of that era and I still do. But unintended consequences being what they are, the phraise took on a life of it's own and you seldon, if ever see the term outer driven era used on the forum to refer to a 1T.
And as I've written before, I believe that the best one word discription of a 1T is 'recover.' After all, a 1T can be high or austere, or as we've seen in Ireland this time around, a bit of both. But it is always a recovery from the transforming crises that preceeded it.

I too prefer "Recovery" over "High."

Both names bring up to different types of positive for me. "Recovery" seems very active and works with all of the building and futuristic civic thinking that may occur during that time. It also helps to explain how the turning is a reaction to the previous crisis and not just some random new world order that happens by hitting a reset button.

Highs are not perfect. We may think of them as desireable times because the economy is usually booming and there's a can-do spirit and people feel financially and materially secure, and relatively safe from harm. But they are also boring times, when individualism and creativity is at a low point and people who feel they don't fit in with t he status quo may feel out of place, stifled, frustrated, or even repressed, unable to express their true feelings and desires. As early as 10 years before the end of a High, there are signs of frustration and boredom, which inevitably leads to an Awakening.

But I sure as hell will take a High over a 4T--or even over an annoying, petty, shallow, insecure, hedonistic, meanspirited, and cynical 3T. At least in a 4T, there's the feeling that change is in the air and that new attitudes are bubbling under the radar. 3Ts just seem so pointless and seem to go on forever...even more boring than a High IMO.