The War of the Roses lasted about 27-28 years, and David McGuinnes listed ancient Crisis periods that lasted about 30 years. Like the Great Power saeculum, we may have a two part Crisis. In the first part the Nintendo wave serves in the Hero role (an anomaly) with Silent influence preventing WWIII (a second anomaly). The second part would be the time of the Grey Champion, with Millies in the Hero role. I think that, even if the Crisis is starting early, it might last to the time of resolution that S&H originally predicted. It will take decades to shift our economy to alternative energy sources and deal with our environmental problems. If so, and if events turn out well, we may end up with both Nintendo/New Gilded and Millie war heros (another anomaly).

New posters and lurkers might be unfamiliar with some of the terms being used. The Lost are the surviving centanarian doughboys of WWI. The G.I.s were the young soldiers and Rosie the Riveters of WWII. The elder Silent generation were children during WWII, young soldiers during the Korean War and young Peace Corps volunteers, Beatniks, mentors of Baby Boomers during the 1960s, and are straddling retirement. The Boomers could be divided into two waves-an older Woodstock wave (including the hippies) and the younger Jonesers. Strauss and Howe divided Generation X into an older Atari Wave and a younger Nintendo Wave. The Millenials, or Millies, are the youngest of the generations known to be on the scene. (It has been speculated that the first of the New Silent have been born). The Gilded included the majority of the soldiers, from privates to generals, during the Civil War. Like the Xers, the Lost and Gilded were pragmatic individualists. It is thought that the Millies will, like the G.I.s, mature from civic minded youths into team playing Heros.

I am reconsidering my post in which I speculated about a Nintendo/New Gilded group coexisting with an empowered Millie Hero generation. To the best of my knowledge there has been no similar combination in history. Mulling over posts in "Generations by the Numbers," I have to agree that this looks like an Unraveling conflict. The Dubya admininstration mignt be compared to that of James Buchanan, a Compromise generation president who was sandwiched between Transcendental presidents Pierce and Lincoln. I say this because Dubya is a Boomer yet also a lackluster leader, and with the influence of Colin Powell his administration may be a functionally Adapive/Artist one.

My reaction to September 11, 2001
I was sitting in a computer lab in the afternoon, when some one said
"oh my god an airplane....."
I initially drowned it out. Bad things happen to airplanes all the time.
Then Someone said another one hit...I braced for this one...But when some one said the `Pentagon is burning"
I knew that America was in deep shit.
I tried to place my family members.
cousin in Syosset, everyone else out on Long Island.
Except my brother who lives in Hoboken.
He could have gone in for a job interview.
He could be there.
His girlfriend works in the area.
She could be there.
I tried to stay strong, as everyone around me flipped out. I knew I had to be the strong one here or else this whole place wuld just emotionally crumble.
I called my family. No one was home.
That worried me.
As the day went on I stayed glued to CNN.
I found out that my brother was ok, but that he had watched the whole thing happen.
His girlfriend was in Virginia for the week.
Images of him dead filled my mind.
Blown open and dripping in that rubble.
I called my Mom a day later.
She was hysterical on the phone. Foe whatever reason I had to shake her from her tears and demand to know if our family was alright.
They were. And for some reason thats all I cared about. I heard my cousins friend died, and the basketball coach at our high school.
But all I care about right now and still care about is that my family is ok.
I told all my friends in DC to do whatever they had to do to survive.
and I watched my faith come behind the government as it never had before, because right now i see them as the only ones who can keep me from dying, which is what I refuse to do.
So I see my role in this whole thing as preserving myself and my family, and little else.
That is all that matters to me right now.

Tim Walker wrote: "...we may have a two part Crisis. In the first part the Nintendo wave serves in the Hero role (an anomaly) with Silent influence preventing WWIII (a second anomaly). The second part would be the time of the Grey Champion, with Millies in the Hero role. ...If so, and if events turn out well, we may end up with both Nintendo/New Gilded and Millie war heros (another anomaly)."

A very interesting point, Tim. If such a scenario did in fact come to pass, I wonder.....might this be an example of the saeculum correcting itself? The Civil War anomaly took away a Hero generation-- perhaps the Terrorism and Ecological Crisis will give us an extra Hero "generation" to make up for the one we lost back then.


<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Kevin Parker '59 on 2001-09-17 15:19 ]</font>

I do have a problem with the "turning" process that we pronounce as truth on this forum, as stated in my earlier post. We assue that the pattern as on-going. We see the cycles like the seasons of the year. I believe the turnings to be more like rings in a tree. The main reason is that trees have a lifespan. In human time, the earth's rotation does not; it is virtually perpetual. Trees peak at a maximum height, afterward they grow only slightly and are usually downed by wind or rot or saw.

The distinction is important, because with mankind as we reach the maximum groth point we meet face-to-face the two horns of the bull. Culture reaches the top of the hill (yes, the peak of the stock market!). I think this 4T may be the top, whenever it occurs. From there: one side is a slippery slope that leads to a free fall, the other side is a freefall! All mountain climbers or rock climbers know that it's easer to climb up (if you don't have rope) than it is to climb down. We have climbed straight up this peak in the past 100 years. How do we get down? It's steep. Some recommend building the peak higher, like a game of Jenga. But the infrastructure only gets more rigid below.

So what do we do if there is no rational, logical solution, which I will insist that there is not even an intuitive solution. We may be able to hang out on the top for a long while, maybe for years, but in time we will be forced by wind or cold to come down, or learn how to fly. But if we do fly it will not be like the birds, but rather like the angels.

Dave

Kevin Parker had an interesting point about the saeculum offering dual Hero gens to make up the one missing from the Civil War cycle. But this is entirely hypothetical-I tried to imagine an early Crisis that nevertheless turned out well. Perhaps if the plunge into deep Crisis holds off a few years, most of the Nintendo wave will have a classic Nomad role while those on the Xer-Millie cusp end up in a Hero role.

Kevin Parker had an interesting point about the saeculum offering dual Hero gens to make up the one missing from the Civil War cycle. But this is entirely hypothetical-I tried to imagine an early Crisis that nevertheless turned out well. Perhaps if the plunge into deep Crisis holds off a few years, most of the Nintendo wave will have a classic Nomad role while those on the Xer-Millie cusp end up in a Hero role.

Just thought of something. I recall some posts awhile back that described the Nintendo wave as optimistic pragmatists, and as Nomads with Hero traits. Suppose that a late 3T/4T precursor went well, making these guys look like heros. Could this turn Gen X into a sort of Nomad-Civic hybrid? If so, what implications would that have for the following turnings?

Justin that sounds just awful. What's WRONG with you man? Now I'm feeling even worse.

And just for the record, I've never heard of Steve Gutenberg.

-Craig

craig...
steve gutenberg was in almost every police academy movie.
he played mahoney.
he was also in three men and a baby.
and short circuit.

Either that, or he wrote the Bible.

I polled my class of undergraduates (Juniors and Seniors, 21-22) this summer and more of them said they are Gen Y or Millies than Gen X.

It is thought that generations may be fuzzy around the edges. It sounds like Crispy '59 is talking about people on the Xer-Millie cusp. Perhaps they will end up in the Hero role.

Man, this conversation has been going on since the term X first came out.
We have learned several things.
You cant trust a newspaper.
Some will say 1965/75, or 76, or 77, or 78, or 79 or 80.
You cant trust a demographer.
Youve got to go on history and cultural forces.
Unlike a baby boomer who is clearly identified as having some sort of "50s style"
childhood "aka HIGH"
and then having some sort of 60s/70s come of age with long hair smoke pot go to rock concerts "aka Awakening"
Xers have largely been defined as Grunge Rockers, Surfer Dudes, or more generally 80s high school students.
The core of people that answer to the name Gen X were born from 1965 to 1975.
But there are cadres on either side that also belong under the title.
GenX in the public eye has yet to take a more generationally classic definition,
of being a child in the 60s70s time of long hair plaid shirts and wall panneling, and coming of age in some way in the listless uninspired suburban melodrama of the 80s and 90s.
People born 78,79,80 generally agree they are on a cusp.
But if you want to really identify their underpinnings dont give them a name.
Ask, do you identify with people born in 1974 more or 1986 more.
Im pretty sure they identify more with 27 year olds than 15 year olds.
Most late wave Xers have a negative opinion of the younger TRL NSYNC Britney crowd.
Late Xers are like
Late Boomers.
Someone born in 1948 is as quintessential a boomer as someone born in 1968 is as quintessential an Xer.
the 48er has that funny high school photo from 1966, the 68er that funny one from 1986.
But what about the class of 1977, what about the class of 1997. They ARE very different from their elders.
But like SnH said.
But who has more in common.
That is the essence of this idea of having generations that are 17/24 years in length

On 2001-09-19 06:55, Justin'79 wrote:
craig...
steve gutenberg was in almost every police academy movie.
he played mahoney.
he was also in three men and a baby.
and short circuit.

He was also born in 1958 - the first year of the Baby Bust!

If the Awakening began on 11/22/63 and the Crisis began on 9/11/01, the midpoint would be
10/17/82. Given the amorphous nature of the transition, this seems as good a date as any for the end of the Awakening (assuming the Crisis has just started). If the generational switch comes three years before the turning switch, 1980 should be the first predominantly Millenial birth year.


Old Toby
Least Known Dog on the Net

Mahoney was a wise ass, Anthony
The Jonesers are a funny bunch.
is Bobcat Goldthwaith in this group...

According to http://www.imdb.com, Bob "Bobcat" Goldthwaite was born on May 26, 1962.

Pardon the interruption. My daughter age 3 and 1/2 wanted to gift wrap a coupld of her books and give them as a present to "the people in the buildings." I gave her a big hug.

Now back to your regularly scheduled programming.

Old Toby, I agree. I think that 3T began sometime in 1982, when the economy started to recover from the 1981 recession. When I look at history, 1982 was when the 3T era trends began. 1984 was when things started to pick up, and when the nation finally acknowledged that the 2T was finally over. 1986 and 1987 marked a deepening of the 3T mood with Challenger and the 1987 Stock Market Crash. 1989 - 1991 was a period analogous to WWI, the Mexican-American War, and the French and Indian War. This draws much better parallels with the French and Indian War, however. The reason is that after 2S-4T (Glorious Revoluton Crisis), the nation entered a period analogous to the modern cold war. While they fought 4 major wars, we fought several skirmishes from the Korean War, to Vietnam, and maybe a few more. The French and Indian Wars signalled the end of this cold war. And the period from 1989 to 1991 marked a period of upheaval as the modern cold war came to an end. The fall of the Berlin Wall, the fall of the Soviet Bloc, the 1991 recession, and Persian Gulf marked this period, which we can interpret as being the center of the 3T. After this period, Boomers started their big rise to national power.

Hmm. From my extremely sketchy memory and ability to place events in location to pop culture (like I know when 1983 was because i remember watching Return of the Jedi in the Movie Theater)
Perhaps you are right with the 1982 date.
My earliest memories of my family are of the baby boomers in my family (my mom born 1947, uncle born 1951,aunt born 1954, and two uncles born 1958 and 1960) being young and not settled.
When I was a little kid, only my parents were settled in, and barely---they were working on our house, and I was living in their room.
My aunt had two kids, a third on the way, and was living in a condo, and then moved back to my grandmas house. She had yet to settle down.
My uncle had a girlfriend, and lived in an apartment. He had yet to get married, move into a house, and have his super millie children in 1984,88, and 93.
and my two uncles were college students.
By 1984 that had all changed.
people had marriages, houses, careers, and new children.
A new generation was being produced.
My generation was produced in the 70s...
which to my brother was a lot clearer (he was born in 1971) but that i guess was like my first garbled memories of shag carpets, and 70s styles...just 70s vibrations (the early 80s were very much like the 70s, and second wave Xer will tell you.)
So maybe the 1982 date is right.
we will see in the long run.
Although things look really 4T right now, this may be like the authors have said, like John Browns Raid, or the Boston Massacre, as opposed to the true catalyst.

If 911 is the catalyst then a large percentage of people born in 1980 are seniors in college living among their cohorts and younger and are experiencing this moment collectively. People born in 1979 have graduated and scattered and are experiencing the moment individually or in small groups, but not in the collectinve environment of a college campus.

A year or two ago, I distinctively remember either Mr. Strauss or Mr. Howe saying that the 1982 birth dates are still a little fuzzy, but the final dates will not diverge more than a couple of years from 1982. In light of this, I think that it is rational to put the Millie dates starting at 1980. In MR, it is stated that three fundamental trends (era of wanted child, era of protected child, era of worthy child) starting in 1982 built the Millies. However, those who were two years old at the time: the 1980 cohorts, were undoubtedly affected by this. Plus, the 1980 and 1981 cohorts have personally seen the treatment of 1982 cohorts, and that has a splash effect on them. So the 1980 and 1981 cohorts could really go either way. The earliest possible date is probably 1979, as they were up to 3, which means that anything higher would've made them small children, and not infants (or unborn) when the three fundamental trends hit.

The 1982 cohorts are very important, as many of the trends started with them. But again, there was a splash effect for those born before. And remember that Millies are a dominant generation. So this probably means that 1980 and 1981 cohorts are being sucked in by the enormous gravity of the 1982 cohorts and beyond.

The 1980 and 1981 cohorts are currently in college. It is common knowledge that there are much more freshmen than seniors. Add into the fact that these is a boom of incoming freshmen that is overwhelming campi (plural for campus?) Now add in the fact that the 1982 and 1983 cohorts are larger than the 1981 and 1980 cohorts. Last of all, take into account that Millies are a dominant generation. Because of that, Millies are most likely starting to dominate the college culture. Imagine freshmen having more power and influence than seniors.

Now let's take a look at 911. The 1980 cohorts are currently in college. Because of this, they could not escape the Millie reaction. In fact, 1980 and 1981 cohorts acted like Millies after the event. This was a "unifying experience" for all of the undergraduates, and those still in elementary and secondary school. The gravitational force of the Millies pulled them in. As if you look at the media, the spotlight is now on those who are 21 years of age or lower in light of these attacks. So I believe that the boundaries must be moved forward 2 years.

Neisha: what % of kids graduate in four years now? What % take a year off before school?

I think you'll still have a boatload of 22-year-olds on campus. Don't know if it's enough to make a difference, though...