Man, between Clinton, TRL, and dawsons Creek, Im just so disillusioned :wink:

Awww. I can't remember when music was not important. When I was small we would dance to Men at Work and Eddie Grant, and go to roller skating parties, play Pac-Man and eat pizza. we'd wear deely boppers on our heads.
I think that when "Joshua Tree" by U2 came out in 1987 it was a big deal.
I remember my cousin letting me listen to it and both of us seeing it as amazing.
And Del the Funkee Homosapien in 1991, turning it up every time he said "fuck"
and Depeche Mode "violator" in 90.
That album still kicks ass.

For the heck of it, let's see if we see a different Lost start from the 1883 one which S&H offered. If we start the GIs at 1906 or so, I believe that would bring that generation more in line with the economic turnings which Mike Alexander analyzed. But the Lost should also probably start later than 1883 in order to fit Mike's pattern, although I cannot remember exactly where he started the relevant Lost economic turning. I will include 1870 through 1895 to ensure that we get the clearest possible picture of the generational shift from the limited number of names offered:

http://www.famousbirthdays.com/bday_123.txt

22-Apr-1870 Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
25-Jul-1870 Maxfield Parrish
31-Aug-1870 Maria Montessori
25-Nov-1870 Solanus Casey
06-Dec-1870 William S. Hart

29-Jul-1871 Grigori Rasputin
19-Aug-1871 Orville Wright
01-Nov-1871 Stephen Crane

07-Mar-1872 Piet Mondriaan
04-Jul-1872 Calvin Coolidge
16-Jul-1872 Roald Amundsen
21-Aug-1872 Aubrey Beardsley
27-Oct-1872 Emily Post

28-Jan-1873 Colette
13-Feb-1873 L.L. Bean
24-Feb-1873 Enrico Caruso
01-Apr-1873 Sergei Rachmaninoff
09-May-1873 Howard Carter
20-Jul-1873 Alberto Santos-Dumont

03-Feb-1874 Gertrude Stein
09-Feb-1874 Amy Lowell
24-Mar-1874 Harry Houdini
26-Mar-1874 Robert Frost
29-May-1874 G.K. Chesterton
10-Aug-1874 Herbert Hoover
20-Oct-1874 Charles Ives
30-Nov-1874 Winston Churchill

14-Jan-1875 Albert Schweitzer
22-Jan-1875 D.W. Griffith
07-Mar-1875 Maurice Ravel
06-Jun-1875 Thomas Mann
26-Jul-1875 Carl Jung
01-Sep-1875 Edgar Rice Burroughs

12-Jan-1876 Jack London
05-Jan-1876 Konrad Adenauer
07-Aug-1876 Mata Hari

02-Jul-1877 Hermann Hesse

06-Jan-1878 Carl Sandburg
27-May-1878 Isadora Duncan
03-Jul-1878 George M. Cohan
20-Sep-1878 Upton Sinclair

14-Mar-1879 Albert Einstein
15-Aug-1879 Ethel Barrymore
04-Nov-1879 Will Rogers
21-Dec-1879 Joseph Stalin
27-Dec-1879 Sydney Greenstreet

06-Jan-1880 Tom Mix
26-Jan-1880 Douglas MacArthur
29-Jan-1880 W.C. Fields
27-Jun-1880 Helen Keller
24-Dec-1880 Johnny Gruelle

25-Mar-1881 Bela Bartok
12-Aug-1881 Cecil B. DeMille
25-Oct-1881 Pablo Picasso

18-Jan-1882 A.A. Milne
25-Jan-1882 Virginia Woolf
30-Jan-1882 Franklin D. Roosevelt
02-Feb-1882 James Joyce
15-Feb-1882 John Barrymore
18-Apr-1882 Leopold Stokowski
17-Jun-1882 Igor Stravinsky
20-Oct-1882 Bela Lugosi
22-Oct-1882 N.C. Wyeth
11-Dec-1882 Fiorello La Guardia

06-Jan-1883 Kahlil Gibran
23-May-1883 Douglas Fairbanks, Sr.
03-Jul-1883 Franz Kafka
04-Jul-1883 Rube Goldberg
29-Jul-1883 Benito Mussolini

13-Jan-1884 Sophie Tucker
17-Jan-1884 Mack Sennett
08-May-1884 Harry S. Truman
07-Aug-1884 Billie Burke
04-Oct-1884 Damon Runyon
11-Oct-1884 Eleanor Roosevelt

27-Jan-1885 Jerome Kern
29-Jan-1885 Huddie "Leadbelly" Ledbetter
07-Feb-1885 Sinclair Lewis
13-Feb-1885 Bess Truman
07-May-1885 Gabby Hayes
14-May-1885 Otto Klemperer
07-Oct-1885 Niels Bohr
30-Oct-1885 Ezra Pound
11-Nov-1885 George Patton

18-Mar-1886 Edward Everett Horton
26-May-1886 Al Jolson
06-Dec-1886 Joyce Kilmer
08-Dec-1886 Diego Rivera
18-Dec-1886 Ty Cobb

28-Jan-1887 Arthur Rubenstein
26-Feb-1887 William Frawley
22-Mar-1887 Chico Marx
24-Mar-1887 Roscoe "Fatty" Arbuckle
06-Oct-1887 Le Corbusier
31-Oct-1887 Chiang Kai-Shek
06-Nov-1887 Walter Perry Johnson
15-Nov-1887 Georgia O'Keeffe
23-Nov-1887 Boris Karloff
06-Dec-1887 Lynn Fontanne
25-Dec-1887 Conrad Hilton

04-Mar-1888 Knute Rockne
10-May-1888 Max Steiner
11-May-1888 Irving Berlin
28-May-1888 Jim Thorpe
06-Sep-1888 Joseph P. Kennedy
12-Sep-1888 Maurice Chevalier
26-Sep-1888 T.S. Eliot
16-Oct-1888 Eugene O'Neill
23-Nov-1888 Harpo Marx
24-Nov-1888 Dale Carnegie

22-Feb-1889 Lady Baden-Powell
16-Apr-1889 Charlie Chaplin
20-Apr-1889 Adolf Hitler
05-Jul-1889 Jean Cocteau
17-Jul-1889 Erle Stanley Gardner
15-Sep-1889 Robert Benchley
10-Nov-1889 Claude Rains
14-Nov-1889 Jawaharlal Nehru

10-Feb-1890 Boris Pasternak
19-May-1890 Ho Chi Minh
02-Jun-1890 Hedda Hopper
16-Jun-1890 Stan Laurel
22-Jul-1890 Rose Kennedy
20-Aug-1890 H.P. Lovecraft
24-Aug-1890 Duke Kahanamoku
15-Sep-1890 Agatha Christie
20-Sep-1890 Ferdinand "Jelly Roll" Morton
02-Oct-1890 Groucho Marx
09-Oct-1890 Aimee Semple McPherson
14-Oct-1890 Dwight Eisenhower
22-Nov-1890 Charles de Gaulle

09-Feb-1891 Ronald Colman
27-Feb-1891 David Sarnoff
30-Jul-1891 Casey Stengel
29-Oct-1891 Fanny Brice
26-Dec-1891 Henry Miller

03-Jan-1892 J.R.R. Tolkien
14-Jan-1892 Hal Roach
18-Jan-1892 Oliver Hardy
13-Feb-1892 Grant Wood
02-May-1892 Baron Von Richthofen
09-Jun-1892 Cole Porter
26-Jun-1892 Pearl S. Buck
17-Aug-1892 Mae West
25-Oct-1892 Leo G. Carroll
04-Dec-1892 Francisco Franco
15-Dec-1892 J. Paul Getty

10-Feb-1893 Jimmy Durante
21-Feb-1893 Andres Segovia
08-Apr-1893 Mary Pickford
20-Apr-1893 Harold Lloyd
20-Apr-1893 Joan Mir?
23-Jul-1893 Karl Menninger
22-Aug-1893 Dorothy Parker
17-Oct-1893 Spring Byington
23-Oct-1893 Gummo Marx
30-Oct-1893 Charles Atlas
12-Dec-1893 Edward G. Robinson
25-Dec-1893 Robert Ripley
26-Dec-1893 Mao Tse-tung

03-Feb-1894 Norman Rockwell
14-Feb-1894 Jack Benny
15-Apr-1894 Bessie Smith
17-Apr-1894 Nikita Khrushchev
11-May-1894 Martha Graham
27-May-1894 Dashiell Hammett
31-May-1894 Fred Allen
23-Jun-1894 Edward VIII, King of England
23-Jun-1894 Alfred Kinsey
23-Jul-1894 Arthur Treacher
25-Jul-1894 Walter Brennan
26-Jul-1894 Aldous Huxley
14-Oct-1894 e.e. cummings
28-Nov-1894 Brooks Atkinson
08-Dec-1894 James Thurber
17-Dec-1894 Arthur Fiedler

01-Jan-1895 J. Edgar Hoover
01-Feb-1895 John Ford
06-Feb-1895 Babe Ruth
17-Mar-1895 Shemp Howard
04-Apr-1895 Arthur Murray
06-May-1895 Rudolph Valentino
08-May-1895 Bishop Fulton Sheen
24-Jun-1895 Jack Dempsey
12-Jul-1895 R. Buckminster Fuller
12-Jul-1895 Oscar Hammerstein II
18-Jul-1895 George "Machine Gun" Kelly
13-Aug-1895 Bert Lahr
02-Oct-1895 Bud Abbott
04-Oct-1895 Buster Keaton
08-Oct-1895 Juan Peron
29-Nov-1895 Busby Berkeley

I think the pre-1880 births are pretty solidly Missionary. So I'll start with 1880:

On 2002-05-02 04:01, Stonewall Patton wrote:

06-Jan-1880 Tom Mix
26-Jan-1880 Douglas MacArthur
29-Jan-1880 W.C. Fields
27-Jun-1880 Helen Keller
24-Dec-1880 Johnny Gruelle

I cannot bring Tom Mix into focus too well but those cowboy actors always struck me as heavily Lost. MacArthur and Helen Keller were Missionary, but what about W.C. Fields? He seems slightly Lost. We my be picking up the beginning of the Lost cusp in 1880 and it may have actually begun as early as 1878...not too sure.

25-Mar-1881 Bela Bartok
12-Aug-1881 Cecil B. DeMille
25-Oct-1881 Pablo Picasso

I see Picasso as kind of Lost, but of course he was a foreigner. However since Europe was dominant then, their turnings may have begun slightly earlier than ours.

18-Jan-1882 A.A. Milne
25-Jan-1882 Virginia Woolf
30-Jan-1882 Franklin D. Roosevelt
02-Feb-1882 James Joyce
15-Feb-1882 John Barrymore
18-Apr-1882 Leopold Stokowski
17-Jun-1882 Igor Stravinsky
20-Oct-1882 Bela Lugosi
22-Oct-1882 N.C. Wyeth
11-Dec-1882 Fiorello La Guardia

I'd say that 1882 was more Missionary than Lost.

06-Jan-1883 Kahlil Gibran
23-May-1883 Douglas Fairbanks, Sr.
03-Jul-1883 Franz Kafka
04-Jul-1883 Rube Goldberg
29-Jul-1883 Benito Mussolini

Looks like some Lost in 1883 but I'd say it was still mixed.

13-Jan-1884 Sophie Tucker
17-Jan-1884 Mack Sennett
08-May-1884 Harry S. Truman
07-Aug-1884 Billie Burke
04-Oct-1884 Damon Runyon
11-Oct-1884 Eleanor Roosevelt

Truman was Lost and Eleanor Roosevelt seemed Missionary, did she not? I am not bringing Damon Runyon clearly to mind but wasn't he Lost? Don't know about the others. 1884 seems like another cusp year though.

27-Jan-1885 Jerome Kern
29-Jan-1885 Huddie "Leadbelly" Ledbetter
07-Feb-1885 Sinclair Lewis
13-Feb-1885 Bess Truman
07-May-1885 Gabby Hayes
14-May-1885 Otto Klemperer
07-Oct-1885 Niels Bohr
30-Oct-1885 Ezra Pound
11-Nov-1885 George Patton

I think it may still be mixed but possibly more Lost than Missionary?

18-Mar-1886 Edward Everett Horton
26-May-1886 Al Jolson
06-Dec-1886 Joyce Kilmer
08-Dec-1886 Diego Rivera
18-Dec-1886 Ty Cobb

Jolson and Cobb were Lost. 1886 may still be mixed but possibly more Lost.

28-Jan-1887 Arthur Rubenstein
26-Feb-1887 William Frawley
22-Mar-1887 Chico Marx
24-Mar-1887 Roscoe "Fatty" Arbuckle
06-Oct-1887 Le Corbusier
31-Oct-1887 Chiang Kai-Shek
06-Nov-1887 Walter Perry Johnson
15-Nov-1887 Georgia O'Keeffe
23-Nov-1887 Boris Karloff
06-Dec-1887 Lynn Fontanne
25-Dec-1887 Conrad Hilton

I'd say 1887 was mostly Lost but it may still be mixed.

04-Mar-1888 Knute Rockne
10-May-1888 Max Steiner
11-May-1888 Irving Berlin
28-May-1888 Jim Thorpe
06-Sep-1888 Joseph P. Kennedy
12-Sep-1888 Maurice Chevalier
26-Sep-1888 T.S. Eliot
16-Oct-1888 Eugene O'Neill
23-Nov-1888 Harpo Marx
24-Nov-1888 Dale Carnegie

1888 is pretty solidly Lost. Is it still mixed?

22-Feb-1889 Lady Baden-Powell
16-Apr-1889 Charlie Chaplin
20-Apr-1889 Adolf Hitler
05-Jul-1889 Jean Cocteau
17-Jul-1889 Erle Stanley Gardner
15-Sep-1889 Robert Benchley
10-Nov-1889 Claude Rains
14-Nov-1889 Jawaharlal Nehru

Lost but is 1889 still mixed?

10-Feb-1890 Boris Pasternak
19-May-1890 Ho Chi Minh
02-Jun-1890 Hedda Hopper
16-Jun-1890 Stan Laurel
22-Jul-1890 Rose Kennedy
20-Aug-1890 H.P. Lovecraft
24-Aug-1890 Duke Kahanamoku
15-Sep-1890 Agatha Christie
20-Sep-1890 Ferdinand "Jelly Roll" Morton
02-Oct-1890 Groucho Marx
09-Oct-1890 Aimee Semple McPherson
14-Oct-1890 Dwight Eisenhower
22-Nov-1890 Charles de Gaulle

Lost and I'd say it is pretty solidly Lost after 1890.

As I see it, there were possibly traces of Lost as early as 1878 (George M. Cohan?) and traces of Missionary as late as 1992 (Pearl S. Buck?). These might qualify as the extreme limits of the cusp. If so, then the actual generational shift likely occurred at a point about halfway in between. That would point to a shift in the neighborhood of 1885, perhaps somewhere between 1884 and 1886. If the Haymarket Riot of 1886 "broke the seal" and ushered in the 2T, then we might expect the first Lost year to be 2-4 years prior. It is possible that 1884 was the first majority Lost birthyear, meeting both the margin before the catalyst (2 years) and the approximate cusp midpoint requirement. Names suggest that 1883 might qualify as well (as S&H offered), but I think it leaves a noticeably asymetrical cusp. I like 1884 for the first Lost birthyear.

I see a 22 year Lost generation then. So I get the following:

1884 - Lost Advent

+ 22 years

1906 - GI Advent

+ 19 years

1925 - Silent Advent

+ 18 years

1943 - Boom Advent

+ 18 years?

1961? - 13th Advent

+ 20 years?

1981? - Millennial Advent


The lengths of the generations vary between 18 and 22 years in this sample. But they all begin consistently about 2 (or possibly more than 2 and less than 3) years before the actual turning shift. That might makes sense. If the child first becomes consciously aware of the outside world at about the age of 3, then his first memories would be post-turning shift. The child has no conscious memories of the prior mood and has only known the post-turning shift mood. That is what cements him into one generation versus the other given how he perceives the world as a function of that mood he has known. I wonder if this "2 year rule" might hold throughout all generations upon further analysis?

BTW, I am not sure that an 1884 Lost start correlates very well with Mike's turnings. It would be interesting to consider the Missionary start independently of S&H's offering (1860 start) and see if it falls more in line with Mike's cycles or S&H's.

Here are births from 1850 through 1875 in case anybody wants to take a stab at finding the Progressive/Missionary boundary:

http://www.famousbirthdays.com/bday_123.txt

13-Nov-1850 Robert Louis Stevenson

28-Jan-1853 Jos? Marti
16-Jan-1853 Andre Michelin
30-Mar-1853 Vincent Van Gogh
24-Nov-1853 Bat Masterson

16-Oct-1854 Oscar Wilde
20-Oct-1854 Arthur Rimbaud
06-Nov-1854 John Philip Sousa

13-Mar-1855 Percival Lowell

05-Apr-1856 Booker T. Washington
06-May-1856 Sigmund Freud
06-May-1856 Robert E. Peary
09-Jul-1856 Nicola Tesla
26-Jul-1856 George Bernard Shaw
13-Nov-1856 Louis Brandeis
28-Dec-1856 Woodrow Wilson

22-Feb-1857 Lord Baden-Powell
18-Apr-1857 Clarence Darrow
02-Jun-1857 Sir Edward Elgar
15-Sep-1857 William H. Taft
03-Dec-1857 Joseph Conrad

27-Oct-1858 Theodore Roosevelt

18-Feb-1859 Sholem Aleichem
22-May-1859 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
23-Nov-1859 Billy the Kid
02-Dec-1859 Georges Seurat

29-Feb-1860 Herman Hollerith
19-Jul-1860 Lizzie Borden
13-Aug-1860 Annie Oakley
07-Sep-1860 Grandma Moses
13-Sep-1860 John J. Pershing
31-Oct-1860 Juliette Low

12-Jul-1861 George Washington Carver
06-Nov-1861 James Naismith

22-Aug-1862 Claude Debussy
11-Sep-1862 O. Henry
23-Dec-1862 Connie Mack

29-Apr-1863 William Randolph Hearst
30-Jul-1863 Henry Ford
02-Dec-1863 Charles Ringling

13-Jun-1865 William Butler Yeats
02-Nov-1865 Warren G. Harding
08-Dec-1865 Jean Sibelius
30-Dec-1865 Rudyard Kipling

06-Apr-1866 Butch Cassidy
28-Jul-1866 Beatrix Potter
08-Aug-1866 Matthew Henson
21-Sep-1866 H.G. Wells
04-Dec-1866 Wassily Kandinsky

07-Feb-1867 Laura Ingalls Wilder
25-Mar-1867 Arturo Toscanini
29-Mar-1867 Cy Young
16-Apr-1867 Wilbur Wright
08-Jun-1867 Frank Lloyd Wright
07-Nov-1867 Madame Curie
23-Dec-1867 Madame C.J. Walker

23-Feb-1868 W.E.B. DuBois
28-Mar-1868 Maxim Gorky
24-Nov-1868 Scott Joplin
20-Dec-1868 Harvey Firestone

02-Oct-1869 Mahatma Gandhi
31-Dec-1869 Henri Matisse

22-Apr-1870 Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
25-Jul-1870 Maxfield Parrish
31-Aug-1870 Maria Montessori
25-Nov-1870 Solanus Casey
06-Dec-1870 William S. Hart

29-Jul-1871 Grigori Rasputin
19-Aug-1871 Orville Wright
01-Nov-1871 Stephen Crane

07-Mar-1872 Piet Mondriaan
04-Jul-1872 Calvin Coolidge
16-Jul-1872 Roald Amundsen
21-Aug-1872 Aubrey Beardsley
27-Oct-1872 Emily Post

28-Jan-1873 Colette
13-Feb-1873 L.L. Bean
24-Feb-1873 Enrico Caruso
01-Apr-1873 Sergei Rachmaninoff
09-May-1873 Howard Carter
20-Jul-1873 Alberto Santos-Dumont

03-Feb-1874 Gertrude Stein
09-Feb-1874 Amy Lowell
24-Mar-1874 Harry Houdini
26-Mar-1874 Robert Frost
29-May-1874 G.K. Chesterton
10-Aug-1874 Herbert Hoover
20-Oct-1874 Charles Ives
30-Nov-1874 Winston Churchill

14-Jan-1875 Albert Schweitzer
22-Jan-1875 D.W. Griffith
07-Mar-1875 Maurice Ravel
06-Jun-1875 Thomas Mann
26-Jul-1875 Carl Jung
01-Sep-1875 Edgar Rice Burroughs

We are getting much smaller samples for some of these early years and some years even lack a listed birth. Don't know how much we can do with a sample this size. I am going to take these years in reverse and see if I can discern when the Missionaries peter out. 1873 and later seem solidly Missionary so I will begin with 1872:

07-Mar-1872 Piet Mondriaan
04-Jul-1872 Calvin Coolidge
16-Jul-1872 Roald Amundsen
21-Aug-1872 Aubrey Beardsley
27-Oct-1872 Emily Post

Calvin Coolidge seems more Adaptive than Prophet to me. We may be picking up the cusp in 1872.

29-Jul-1871 Grigori Rasputin
19-Aug-1871 Orville Wright
01-Nov-1871 Stephen Crane

Orville Wright was conceivably more Adaptive. More cusp?

22-Apr-1870 Vladimir Ilyich Lenin
25-Jul-1870 Maxfield Parrish
31-Aug-1870 Maria Montessori
25-Nov-1870 Solanus Casey
06-Dec-1870 William S. Hart

Seems Missionary but I'm not clear on all these people.

02-Oct-1869 Mahatma Gandhi
31-Dec-1869 Henri Matisse

Foreigners. Even so, might Matisse have been more Adaptive?

23-Feb-1868 W.E.B. DuBois
28-Mar-1868 Maxim Gorky
24-Nov-1868 Scott Joplin
20-Dec-1868 Harvey Firestone

Still looks Missionary to me.

07-Feb-1867 Laura Ingalls Wilder
25-Mar-1867 Arturo Toscanini
29-Mar-1867 Cy Young
16-Apr-1867 Wilbur Wright
08-Jun-1867 Frank Lloyd Wright
07-Nov-1867 Madame Curie
23-Dec-1867 Madame C.J. Walker

Wilbur Wright and Frank Lloyd Wright seem a bit Adaptive to me. Still in the cusp.

06-Apr-1866 Butch Cassidy
28-Jul-1866 Beatrix Potter
08-Aug-1866 Matthew Henson
21-Sep-1866 H.G. Wells
04-Dec-1866 Wassily Kandinsky

Still cusp, I would guess.

13-Jun-1865 William Butler Yeats
02-Nov-1865 Warren G. Harding
08-Dec-1865 Jean Sibelius
30-Dec-1865 Rudyard Kipling

Harding seems Adaptive to me. The rest are foreigners unfortunately.

29-Apr-1863 William Randolph Hearst
30-Jul-1863 Henry Ford
02-Dec-1863 Charles Ringling

I see a lot of Adaptive in Ford. Hearst may have been more Prophet but not completely. Ringling may have been Prophet.

22-Aug-1862 Claude Debussy
11-Sep-1862 O. Henry
23-Dec-1862 Connie Mack

Too small a sample but it ought to be cuspy.

12-Jul-1861 George Washington Carver
06-Nov-1861 James Naismith

I see these guys as kind of Adaptive.

29-Feb-1860 Herman Hollerith
19-Jul-1860 Lizzie Borden
13-Aug-1860 Annie Oakley
07-Sep-1860 Grandma Moses
13-Sep-1860 John J. Pershing
31-Oct-1860 Juliette Low

I guess Low was Missionary and Pershing may have been (and possibly Borden - hehe). Not sure about the others.

18-Feb-1859 Sholem Aleichem
22-May-1859 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
23-Nov-1859 Billy the Kid
02-Dec-1859 Georges Seurat

Too many foreigners.

27-Oct-1858 Theodore Roosevelt

Adaptive.

22-Feb-1857 Lord Baden-Powell
18-Apr-1857 Clarence Darrow
02-Jun-1857 Sir Edward Elgar
15-Sep-1857 William H. Taft
03-Dec-1857 Joseph Conrad

Adaptive. Conrad may have been a Prophet but he was a foreigner.

05-Apr-1856 Booker T. Washington
06-May-1856 Sigmund Freud
06-May-1856 Robert E. Peary
09-Jul-1856 Nicola Tesla
26-Jul-1856 George Bernard Shaw
13-Nov-1856 Louis Brandeis
28-Dec-1856 Woodrow Wilson

Adaptive.

13-Mar-1855 Percival Lowell

Adaptive.

16-Oct-1854 Oscar Wilde
20-Oct-1854 Arthur Rimbaud
06-Nov-1854 John Philip Sousa

Wilde may have been more Prophet but he was foreign. Sousa, I'm not sure.

28-Jan-1853 Jos? Marti
16-Jan-1853 Andre Michelin
30-Mar-1853 Vincent Van Gogh
24-Nov-1853 Bat Masterson

Too many foreigners but I would guess Adaptive.

13-Nov-1850 Robert Louis Stevenson

Foreigner.


It is too small a sample, but I am seeing a cusp spanning 1860 through 1872. In fact the 1859 sample was sufficiently weak that the cusp may include that year. The midpoint of the cusp would appear to be about 1866 and possibly a few years earlier. If the determinant is popular mood at first consciousness, then significant years in this span would be 1865 and 1868. 1868 is arguably a better year for mood shift from one of crisis. If true, then 1866 is choice for first Missionary birth year. That would bisect a cusp ranging from 1859 through 1872. If it is not 1866, then it should be 1863 if there is anything to the "two year rule." But I like 1966 based upon the cusp.

So I get:

1866? - Missionary Advent (1868 turning)

+ 18 years?

1884? - Lost Advent (1886 turning)

+ 22 years?

1906? - GI Advent (1908 turning?)

+ 19 years

1925 - Silent Advent (1929 turning. Note: 2-year rule does not apply; 4 years. Was there considerable angst between 1927 and 1929? Possibly given direction of global economy.)

+ 18 years

1943 - Boom Advent

+ 18 years?

1961? - 13th Advent

+ 20 years?

1981? - Millennial Advent


An 18 year Missionary generation may be keeping things parallel with Mike's economic turnings. I cannot remember his dates but I think there is something of a margin present. Don't really know how it compares even if these things are running parallel. Need to find Progressive start and see what things look like but I suspect that the sample of births will be too small to be of any real use.

S&H offer an anomalous shift from a Nomad to an Adaptive generation about 1843. If there is anything to the "pattern" I have been seeing, then I might expect some sort of shift probably between 1843 and 1849. If it exists, might it have been from Hero to Adaptive? Was there in fact a Civic generation? This sample is probably way too small, but I will paste in 1830 through 1860 to see if we can find the Progressive/Adaptive start. And perhaps we can discern whether Heroes or Nomads preceded these Adaptives:

http://www.famousbirthdays.com/bday_123.txt

10-Dec-1830 Emily Dickinson

13-Jan-1832 Horatio Alger
23-Jan-1832 Edouard Manet
27-Jan-1832 Lewis Carroll
29-Nov-1832 Louisa May Alcott

07-May-1833 Johannes Brahms
20-Aug-1833 Benjamin Harrison
21-Oct-1833 Alfred Nobel
06-Dec-1833 John Singleton Mosby

19-Jul-1834 Edgar Degas

30-Nov-1835 Mark Twain

18-Nov-1836 William Gilbert

18-Mar-1837 Grover Cleveland
27-May-1837 Wild Bill Hickok

04-Jan-1838 Charles "Tom Thumb" Stratton
21-Apr-1838 John Muir
25-Oct-1838 Georges Bizet

19-Jan-1839 Paul Cezanne
21-Mar-1839 Modest Mussorgsky
08-Jul-1839 John D. Rockefeller
05-Dec-1839 George Armstrong Custer

07-May-1840 Peter Ilyich Tchaikovsky
12-Nov-1840 Auguste Rodin
14-Nov-1840 Claude Monet

25-Feb-1841 Pierre Auguste Renoir

13-May-1842 Arthur Sullivan
24-Jun-1842 Ambrose Bierce

29-Jan-1843 William McKinley

22-May-1844 Mary Cassat
11-Oct-1844 Henry John Heinz
22-Oct-1844 Sarah Bernhardt

26-Feb-1846 William "Buffalo Bill" Cody
06-Oct-1846 George Westinghouse
25-Nov-1846 Carry Nation

11-Feb-1847 Thomas Alva Edison
03-Mar-1847 Alexander Graham Bell
10-Apr-1847 Joseph Pulitzer
05-Sep-1847 Jesse James

19-Mar-1848 Wyatt Earp
07-Jun-1848 Paul Gauguin
07-Mar-1849 Luther Burbank
14-Sep-1849 Ivan Pavlov

13-Nov-1850 Robert Louis Stevenson

28-Jan-1853 Jos? Marti
16-Jan-1853 Andre Michelin
30-Mar-1853 Vincent Van Gogh
24-Nov-1853 Bat Masterson

16-Oct-1854 Oscar Wilde
20-Oct-1854 Arthur Rimbaud
06-Nov-1854 John Philip Sousa

13-Mar-1855 Percival Lowell

05-Apr-1856 Booker T. Washington
06-May-1856 Sigmund Freud
06-May-1856 Robert E. Peary
09-Jul-1856 Nicola Tesla
26-Jul-1856 George Bernard Shaw
13-Nov-1856 Louis Brandeis
28-Dec-1856 Woodrow Wilson

22-Feb-1857 Lord Baden-Powell
18-Apr-1857 Clarence Darrow
02-Jun-1857 Sir Edward Elgar
15-Sep-1857 William H. Taft
03-Dec-1857 Joseph Conrad

27-Oct-1858 Theodore Roosevelt

18-Feb-1859 Sholem Aleichem
22-May-1859 Sir Arthur Conan Doyle
23-Nov-1859 Billy the Kid
02-Dec-1859 Georges Seurat

29-Feb-1860 Herman Hollerith
19-Jul-1860 Lizzie Borden
13-Aug-1860 Annie Oakley
07-Sep-1860 Grandma Moses
13-Sep-1860 John J. Pershing
31-Oct-1860 Juliette Low

I guess the easiest thing to do is read backwards and find the start of the Progressive generation. Then it should be noted whether they are in a cusp with either Nomads or Civics.

Reading backward, I do not see anything non-Adaptive worth mentioning until 1853:

28-Jan-1853 Jos? Marti
16-Jan-1853 Andre Michelin
30-Mar-1853 Vincent Van Gogh
24-Nov-1853 Bat Masterson

Might Bat Masterson have been more of a Nomad? I suppose he might also have been Civic. I don't know for sure. This would still be in the Adaptive generation anyway but probably in the cusp.

13-Nov-1850 Robert Louis Stevenson

Foreigner.

19-Mar-1848 Wyatt Earp
07-Jun-1848 Paul Gauguin
07-Mar-1849 Luther Burbank
14-Sep-1849 Ivan Pavlov

Too many foreigners but Wyatt Earp seems either Nomad or Civic.

11-Feb-1847 Thomas Alva Edison
03-Mar-1847 Alexander Graham Bell
10-Apr-1847 Joseph Pulitzer
05-Sep-1847 Jesse James

Pulitzer may have been Adaptive. Jesse James seems more Nomad. I don't know about Edison and Bell. They might have been Civic or Nomad.

26-Feb-1846 William "Buffalo Bill" Cody
06-Oct-1846 George Westinghouse
25-Nov-1846 Carry Nation

I really don't know what type these people were. Perhaps Carry Nation was Adaptive or Civic. Westinghouse was possibly Civic.

22-May-1844 Mary Cassat
11-Oct-1844 Henry John Heinz
22-Oct-1844 Sarah Bernhardt

I don't know.

29-Jan-1843 William McKinley

Perhaps McKinley was more of a Civic.

13-May-1842 Arthur Sullivan
24-Jun-1842 Ambrose Bierce

These guys almost seem more Nomad.

07-May-1840 Peter Ilyich Tchaikovsky
12-Nov-1840 Auguste Rodin
14-Nov-1840 Claude Monet

25-Feb-1841 Pierre Auguste Renoir

Nothing but foreigners.

19-Jan-1839 Paul Cezanne
21-Mar-1839 Modest Mussorgsky
08-Jul-1839 John D. Rockefeller
05-Dec-1839 George Armstrong Custer

Rockefeller seems more Nomad than anything else. Custer was possibly Nomad.

04-Jan-1838 Charles "Tom Thumb" Stratton
21-Apr-1838 John Muir
25-Oct-1838 Georges Bizet

I don't know. Muir may have been more Civic. Tom Thumb may have been more Nomad.

18-Mar-1837 Grover Cleveland
27-May-1837 Wild Bill Hickok

Both probably Nomads. Cleveland may be Civic.

18-Nov-1836 William Gilbert

Foreigner if this is the right Gilbert.

30-Nov-1835 Mark Twain

Nomad.

19-Jul-1834 Edgar Degas

Foreigner.

07-May-1833 Johannes Brahms
20-Aug-1833 Benjamin Harrison
21-Oct-1833 Alfred Nobel
06-Dec-1833 John Singleton Mosby

Harrison was possibly more Civic than anything else.

13-Jan-1832 Horatio Alger
23-Jan-1832 Edouard Manet
27-Jan-1832 Lewis Carroll
29-Nov-1832 Louisa May Alcott

Alger seems Nomad but was conceivably Civic as well. Alcott? I don't know, Civic?

10-Dec-1830 Emily Dickinson

Nomad?


I don't know what to make of this. It does look like something funny was happening in line with S&H's argument. The sample is really too small to pinpoint where the Adaptives began. There do appear to be some Civic types before that (possibly) but they are certainly mixed with Nomads. Cannot make any sense of it. It may be easier to find the Transcendental/Gilded border and then try to make sense of everything which lies between it and the Missionary start (1866?)...or at least the point at which Progressives unambiguously reign (1854?).

Ok.
I can see a shift 1839-44.
There is something big in a shift that on one end produces John D. Rockefeller and on the other end produces Carry Nation.

I also see a shift between 1863 and 1865.
Gandhi, Goldman, Harding--these are prophets in both the worst and best senses of the term.

Honestly I think their boundaries are pretty correct.
I'd keep the Nomad/Adaptive boundary, and move the Adaptive/Prophet boundary to 1862/63.
(can we really narrow down years in a historical undertaking?)

As for the Lost/Missionary Boundary Id still put it at 1883-84.
Truman is just so evidently Lost and a better example than Eleanor Roosevelt, who might as well be like Rosie O'Donnell for all we know (out of sync with her gen).

I still think that those early 00s cohorts (1900-02/03) are Lost, but that the GIs probably should start in the middle between 1902 (last noticeably Lost cohort) and 1906 (first noticeably GI cohort)
1904.
Plus 1924 was pretty cuspish too.
I bet the first adaptive traits starting showing up in 1922 or so.

Think like this.
1886 was the 1968 of the last century.
It was crazzzzzy.
I mean, that is where May Day originated.
God Bless the anarcho-syndicalists.:smile:

You know when I first read the theory, my first historical correlation wasn't between prophets (the way its set up is fairly prophet-centric).
It was between the adaptives like John Quincy Adams,Andrew Jackson, Henry Clay, Daniel Webster,James Buchanan, and todays adaptives like Jesse Jackson, Trent Lott, Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy etc.
They were just so strikingly the same and so wishy washy, not able to solve anything, and valued compromise above all else.

When I correlated Gen-X it also reminded me of the Green Mountain Boys and Sons of Liberty. That is definitely something my generation would produce. We are like the gang generation.

It also seems that notorious criminals flourish during adaptive and nomad generations.
Youll notice that all those notorious gangsters of the 1880s were born in the 1940s and 50s, and the notorious gangsters of the 1920s were born up until the early 1900s (John Dillinger, Bugsy Siegel, Public Enemy Number One) and then poof!
Didnt exist anymore.
FYI, John Gotti is a Silent.

Bela Lugosi was definitely Lost.
You have to see the film Ed Wood
It details how the generations were lined up in the 50s, especially between GI Ed Wood and Bela, who embodies what the Lost were like in old age.

On 2002-05-02 07:55, God wrote:

Think like this.
1886 was the 1968 of the last century.

If it triggered the Awakening, it would be more like the Kennedy assassination, wouldn't it? 1886 = 1963 (or 1964)?

I guess. It was pretty crazy. You know about Haymarket Square right?

On 2002-05-02 07:53, God wrote:
Ok.
I can see a shift 1839-44.
There is something big in a shift that on one end produces John D. Rockefeller and on the other end produces Carry Nation.

Yeah, but we have such a small sample. I don't know.... By any chance were those mothers who started MADD Silents? Or were they Boomers? If they were Silents, then they might be repeats of the Carry Nation phenomenon. There are probably obvious Adaptive parallels but I have not had a chance to think about it yet.

I also see a shift between 1863 and 1865. Gandhi, Goldman, Harding--these are prophets in both the worst and best senses of the term.

Gandhi was a foreigner and, if he was then on the British schedule, he may have been ahead of us. (I don't recall how the British turnings go but Britain was then the world leader, of course.) Goldman was also foreign born, in Russia which I would think was behind the rest of Europe and the US. How do you see Harding as a Prophet? He was an empty suit. I see him as indisputably Adaptive.

Note that I went with an 1866 Missionary Advent within a cusp spanning 1859 through 1972. If accurate, obviously a lot of American Prophets would have been born around 1863 which you referenced. It is just that there may have been a greater number of Adaptives born that year.

I'd keep the Nomad/Adaptive boundary, and move the Adaptive/Prophet boundary to 1862/63.

That would also be consistent with the 2-year rule which I offered if the turning dates from 1865, the other option besides 1868 in that span. Given the limited sample, my main guide was midpoint of cusp. that is really why I opted for the 1868 turning with an 1866 gen. shift. 1866 in fact bisects the span from 1859 through 1872 perfectly.

As for the Lost/Missionary Boundary Id still put it at 1883-84.
Truman is just so evidently Lost and a better example than Eleanor Roosevelt, who might as well be like Rosie O'Donnell for all we know (out of sync with her gen).

I think I agree. S&H use 1883 and I settled upon 1884 which bisects the cusp (and also happens to be two years before the Haymarket Riot turning). I saw the cusp as spanning 1878-1892 (and possibly 1876-1892 if you see a touch of Lost in Jack London). Both 1883 and 1884 are about evenly split between the generations so it is no oddity that an apparent Missionary like Eleanor was born in 1884 when possibly a slight majority of her peers were Lost.

I still think that those early 00s cohorts (1900-02/03) are Lost, but that the GIs probably should start in the middle between 1902 (last noticeably Lost cohort) and 1906 (first noticeably GI cohort)
1904.

Even so, I still see a Lost majority until 1906. Once you hit those 1905 cohorts, they mostly appear detached from the GIs, necessarily belonging to the earlier generation (Lost), unless you want to incorporate Anthony's "Interbellum Generation." In terms of cusp, I see traces of Lost as late as 1911 and traces of GI as early as 1901 (and probably 1900). 1906 bisects the cusp. It looks good to me.

Plus 1924 was pretty cuspish too.
I bet the first adaptive traits starting showing up in 1922 or so.

I haven't had a chance to look at those births yet. Will do so.

On 2002-05-02 08:31, God wrote:

You know when I first read the theory, my first historical correlation wasn't between prophets (the way its set up is fairly prophet-centric).
It was between the adaptives like John Quincy Adams,Andrew Jackson, Henry Clay, Daniel Webster,James Buchanan, and todays adaptives like Jesse Jackson, Trent Lott, Jimmy Carter, Ted Kennedy etc.
They were just so strikingly the same and so wishy washy, not able to solve anything, and valued compromise above all else.

I agree with everything you say here, but I don't see how anybody can lump in Andrew Jackson with that Adaptive temperament. Note that S&H start the Compromise Generation in 1767, the year of Jackson's birth (unless you agree with his political enemies that he had been born in Ulster in 1755 and was therefore constitutionally prohibited from serving as president).

Regardless, I have an easier time seeing Jackson as a Hero and I might come up with a later Compromise advent once I look at it. Even if he falls in the Compromise, he is on the cusp and could easily be a Civic when a slight majority of his '67 cohorts were Adaptives. I think it is all-important that we bear in mind the cusps. If we date generations to the birth year of earliest representative, then we are necessarily including years in which a majority were of the previous generational archetype. The trick is to find the first year in which better than half were of the archetype concerned. Cusps certainly did not start with "Generation Jones." We always have to bear cusps in mind.

When I correlated Gen-X it also reminded me of the Green Mountain Boys and Sons of Liberty. That is definitely something my generation would produce. We are like the gang generation.

Exactly. This is the Nomad archetype.

It also seems that notorious criminals flourish during adaptive and nomad generations.
Youll notice that all those notorious gangsters of the 1880s were born in the 1940s and 50s, and the notorious gangsters of the 1920s were born up until the early 1900s (John Dillinger, Bugsy Siegel, Public Enemy Number One) and then poof!
Didnt exist anymore.
FYI, John Gotti is a Silent.

That probably has more to do with the environment in the late 3T and late 1T. The late 3T environment is obvious. Not sure about the late 1T. Will think about it.

Lost cusp doesnt reach 1892, are you crazy?

Also, you have to understand that young people had to be behind the 2T in 1886 for this cycle to be real.
That means they would have had to have been at least 20 in 1886, with maybe a year or two on top of it.
Please dont be like Craig, Anthony,Linda, and others and satrt working with arbitrary generations like (1955-1966)
Thats like David Lee Roth through David Schwimmer, or (1962-1986) thats like Matthews Broderick through the Olsen twins.

I do believe in some logic.

On 2002-05-02 13:04, God wrote:
Lost cusp doesnt reach 1892, are you crazy?

Also, you have to understand that young people had to be behind the 2T in 1886 for this cycle to be real.
That means they would have had to have been at least 20 in 1886, with maybe a year or two on top of it.
Please dont be like Craig, Anthony,Linda, and others and satrt working with arbitrary generations like (1955-1966)
Thats like David Lee Roth through David Schwimmer, or (1962-1986) thats like Matthews Broderick through the Olsen twins.

I do believe in some logic.

But still, you're letting one person (all right, two people in the case of 1986 :smile be the representative of the year when there were millions of people born in each year, most of which were not like that (even if most were, it can still be a cusp year if a significant number weren't)

For example, take two of my relatives.
One was a New York City doctor born in 1859, that blossomed into a classic adaptive alcoholic, and married some woman after his first wife that kicked all the kids out of the house, (except the youngest early GI)
Then there was the mother born in 1866, who no doubt embodied the prophet archtype.
The children were all born from about 1885 to 1900. I believe the youngest males were in WWI.
The 1866 mother died in 1908, and he remarried a woman who kicked those that were still in the house out into the streets.
(Nomad, anyone?)
Several died in the influenza epidemic of 1920. The woman had had another child in 1909 with the elderly adaptive doctor (my great great grandfather) and moved to California with the new GI and all the $$$$$$$.
Sounds representative huh?

I am going to try to peg the Transcendental/Gilded border and see if it helps in sorting out that later period. I will also add in people S&H list, not included in the online list, to present a fuller picture. My comments in brackets:

http://www.famousbirthdays.com/bday_123.txt

02-Apr-1805 Hans Christian Andersen
1805 William Lloyd Garrison

[Prophet.]

19-Jan-1807 Robert E. Lee
27-Feb-1807 Henry Wadsworth Longfellow

[Prophet.]

03-Jun-1808 Jefferson Davis
29-Dec-1808 Andrew Johnson

[Prophet.]

04-Jan-1809 Louis Braille
19-Jan-1809 Edgar Allan Poe
12-Feb-1809 Charles Darwin
12-Feb-1809 Abraham Lincoln
24-Dec-1809 Kit Carson

[Prophet. Possibly a bit of Nomad in Kit Carson and a touch in Poe? If so, we are in the cusp by 1809.]

01-Mar-1810 Frederic Chopin
05-Jul-1810 P.T. Barnum

[Prophet, I'm sure. But perhaps a touch of Nomad in Barnum?]

14-Jun-1811 Harriet Beecher Stowe
22-Oct-1811 Franz Liszt

[Prophet.]

07-Feb-1812 Charles Dickens

[Foreign Prophet.]

22-May-1813 Richard Wagner
10-Oct-1813 Giuseppe Verdi
1813 John Fremont

[Possibly a bit of Nomad in Fremont.]

01-Apr-1815 Otto von Bismarck
1815 Elizabeth Cady Stanton

[Prophet.]

21-Apr-1816 Charlotte Bronte

[Foreigner.]

12-Jul-1817 Henry David Thoreau
1817 Frederick Douglass

[Prophet.]

05-May-1818 Karl Marx
30-Jul-1818 Emily Bronte

[Foreigners.]

31-May-1819 Walt Whitman
26-Jun-1819 Abner Doubleday
01-Aug-1819 Herman Melville

[Prophet. Possibly a bit of Nomad in Doubleday? However I am thinking in his fuller life that he was a Prophet.]

17-Jan-1820 Anne Bronte
08-Feb-1820 William Tecumseh Sherman
15-Feb-1820 Susan B. Anthony
12-May-1820 Florence Nightingale
1820 (circa) Harriet Tubman

[Prophet. A touch of Nomad in Sherman?]

13-Jul-1821 Nathan Bedford Forrest
16-Jul-1821 Mary Baker Eddy
25-Dec-1821 Clara Barton

[Bedford Forrest may qualify as Nomad. Eddy and Barton were Prophets.]

27-Apr-1822 Ulysses S. Grant
04-Oct-1822 Rutherford B. Hayes
27-Dec-1822 Louis Pasteur

[Nomad.]

1823 "Boss" Tweed

[Nomad.]

21-Jan-1824 Thomas "Stonewall" Jackson

[Nomad.]

08-Feb-1828 Jules Verne

[Foreigner. But Nomad with a touch of Prophet?]

26-Feb-1829 Levi Strauss
05-Oct-1829 Chester A. Arthur

[Nomad.]

10-Dec-1830 Emily Dickinson
1830 James G. Blaine
1830 "Mother Jones"

[Nomad. But perhaps a touch of Prophet here?]

1831 James A. Garfield
1831 Sitting Bull

[There was really a bit of either Civic or Prophet in Garfield, as I recall. Surely Sitting Bull was on a different schedule.]

13-Jan-1832 Horatio Alger
23-Jan-1832 Edouard Manet
27-Jan-1832 Lewis Carroll
29-Nov-1832 Louisa May Alcott

[Nomad and possibly a bit of Civic.]

07-May-1833 Johannes Brahms
20-Aug-1833 Benjamin Harrison
21-Oct-1833 Alfred Nobel
06-Dec-1833 John Singleton Mosby

[I want to say that Harrison was kind of Civic as opposed to Nomad. Not sure though.]

19-Jul-1834 Edgar Degas

[Nomad.]

30-Nov-1835 Mark Twain
1835 Andrew Carnegie

[Nomad.]


The sample is really too small. But the Prophet/Nomad cusp may begin around 1809 and possibly lasts through about 1830. That would suggest a generational shift about 1819, roughly. The names we have really do reinforce S&H's shift at 1822. However we really do not have anything close to a representative picture of any of these years. So it is conceivable that the majority born in 1819 were Nomad.

S&H assert that Denmark Vesey's slave revolt and Charles Finney's evangelicalism sparked the Awakening (in 1822). Vesey's revolt did occur in 1822 and I assume that Finney's movement did as well although this is not explicitly stated. If we accept 1822 as the start of the Awakening, and if the 2-year rule is valid, then the first majority Nomad year was probably 1820. In other words, the famous Prophets of 1820 and 1821 were possibly in a slight minority of those born in their years (and this might be apparent if we had a fuller sample).

If we accept 1820 as the Gilded Advent and 1866 as the Missionary Advent, then something funny probably did happen in this saeculum as S&H maintain. We have to fit a Nomad, a Civic, and an Adaptive generation within a span of 46 years (1820-1866), averaging 15.33 years each which is highly unusual. It is more credible that two generations averaged 23 years and one generation is missing altogether. However I do see traces of more Civic types in the 1830s and 1840s. Will have to go back and take a closer look at that span.

On 2002-05-02 13:04, God wrote:

Lost cusp doesnt reach 1892, are you crazy?

Well Pearl Buck (1892) seems a bit Missionary to me. In fact she was a missionary, was she not? Similarly, there are possibly traces of Nomad as early as 1878 with George M. Cohan or 1876 with Jack London. If you bisect such a cusp, you land at about 1884 which fits independently.

Also, you have to understand that young people had to be behind the 2T in 1886 for this cycle to be real.
That means they would have had to have been at least 20 in 1886, with maybe a year or two on top of it.

That's right. And the first Boomer cohorts of '43 were exactly 20 when Kennedy was shot. 1866 is precisely 20 years before Haymarket. These two situations appear to be analagous.

Please dont be like Craig, Anthony,Linda, and others and satrt working with arbitrary generations like (1955-1966)
Thats like David Lee Roth through David Schwimmer, or (1962-1986) thats like Matthews Broderick through the Olsen twins.

Where have I ever invented a new generation? I don't buy that business. I think all those people are doing is dealing with cusps. Cusps are logically hybrids, not entirely different generations. Find the middle of the cusp and you have the generational shift.

I see solid Nomad through 1830 and solid Prophet beginning in 1854. Time for a closer looks at the years from 1831 through 1853. I will also add in additional people which S&H list. My comments in brackets:

http://www.famousbirthdays.com/bday_123.txt

1831 James A. Garfield
1831 Sitting Bull

[It seems to me that Garfield was a bit of a Civic. He was notable for implementing some of the Transcendentalists' plans for blacks.]

13-Jan-1832 Horatio Alger
23-Jan-1832 Edouard Manet
27-Jan-1832 Lewis Carroll
29-Nov-1832 Louisa May Alcott

[Alger was Nomad but also a bit Civic. I don't know about Alcott but she does not seem Nomad to me. Perhaps more Civic?]

07-May-1833 Johannes Brahms
20-Aug-1833 Benjamin Harrison
21-Oct-1833 Alfred Nobel
06-Dec-1833 John Singleton Mosby

[I'm not sure that Harrison was your typical Nomad, though I may be wrong. Perhaps he was a bit Civic?]

19-Jul-1834 Edgar Degas

[Foreigner.]

30-Nov-1835 Mark Twain
1835 Andrew Carnegie

[Nomad.]

18-Nov-1836 William Gilbert

[Foreigner.]

18-Mar-1837 Grover Cleveland
27-May-1837 Wild Bill Hickok
1837 J. Pierpont Morgan

[Look like Nomads to me although I think Cleveland was a bit Civic.]

04-Jan-1838 Charles "Tom Thumb" Stratton
21-Apr-1838 John Muir
25-Oct-1838 Georges Bizet
1838 John Wilkes Booth

[Nomads although Muir might have been a bit Civic.]

19-Jan-1839 Paul Cezanne
21-Mar-1839 Modest Mussorgsky
08-Jul-1839 John D. Rockefeller
05-Dec-1839 George Armstrong Custer

[Nomads.]

07-May-1840 Peter Ilyich Tchaikovsky
12-Nov-1840 Auguste Rodin
14-Nov-1840 Claude Monet
1840 Thomas Nast

[Even Nast was foreign born. But I'd think he was Nomad.]

25-Feb-1841 Pierre Auguste Renoir
1841 Oliver W. Holmes, Jr.

[Holmes was a bit Civic was he not?]

13-May-1842 Arthur Sullivan
24-Jun-1842 Ambrose Bierce
1842 William James

[Nomad?]

29-Jan-1843 William McKinley
1843 Henry James
1843 Montgomery Ward

[I see McKinley as more Civic than Nomad. Ward may have been Nomad but don't know enough about him personally.]

22-May-1844 Mary Cassat
11-Oct-1844 Henry John Heinz
22-Oct-1844 Sarah Bernhardt

[Don't know anything about Heinz other than that he made ketchup.]

26-Feb-1846 William "Buffalo Bill" Cody
06-Oct-1846 George Westinghouse
25-Nov-1846 Carry Nation

[Carry Nation ought to have been more Adaptive so we must be entering the Progressive cusp. Buffalo Bill may have been more Civic than anything else but I do not know enough about him. Might Westinghouse have been more Civic?]

11-Feb-1847 Thomas Alva Edison
03-Mar-1847 Alexander Graham Bell
10-Apr-1847 Joseph Pulitzer
05-Sep-1847 Jesse James
1847 "Pichfork" Ben Tillman

[I don't know. Edison, Bell (even though foreign born), and Pulitzer may have leaned Adaptive. Jesse James may have as well if the biggest criminals were Adaptives as well as Nomads. Cannot think who Ben Tillman was.]

19-Mar-1848 Wyatt Earp
07-Jun-1848 Paul Gauguin

[I'd say Wyatt Earp was more Civic.]

07-Mar-1849 Luther Burbank
14-Sep-1849 Ivan Pavlov
1849 Crazy Horse

[Can't think who Burbank was and I doubt that Crazy Horse was on the same schedule.]

13-Nov-1850 Robert Louis Stevenson
1850 Samuel Gompers

[Gompers as a radical ought to have been Adaptive.]

28-Jan-1853 Jos? Marti
16-Jan-1853 Andre Michelin
30-Mar-1853 Vincent Van Gogh
24-Nov-1853 Bat Masterson

[Bat Masterson may have been more Civic.]


I don't know what to make of this. S&H maintain that the Panic of 1837 killed the Awakening mood. By my interpretation, Civic's first memories are of the upbeat mood after recovery (using 1906 for GI advent with the recovery after the crash of 1907, and 1981 for Millennials with the Reagan recovery and mood (~1983)). If this pattern holds true, then these Civics' first memories would have been of the upbeat mood after the recovery from the Panic of 1837. I believe that recovery came in 1840. Applying the 2-year rule, I get 1838 as the Civic advent.

Again, I see the center of the Civic cusp between 1841 and 1843. If this corresponds to the Civic peak, and if the Civic generation begins in 1838, then the Civic generation probably ends between 1844 and 1848.

To pinpoint this, let's try the same tactic with Adaptive advents. There is a possible pattern that Adaptive's first conscious memories are of a crisis mood. For example, our latest Adaptive advent was probably in 1998 or 1999, two years in advance of either E2K or 911. The first memories of Silents of 1925 may have been of waiting for the other shoe to drop in light of the direction of the global economy (and the shoe was suspended in mid-air for a year or two until it finally dropped in 1929). If this pattern should be valid, then the nearest thing to a crisis mood to which the first Adaptives may have first awoken is the Crisis of 1850. The Progressive Advent would then be perhaps 1848. This would leave a truncated Civic generation spanning 1838 through 1848. And it would obviously be a weaker Civic generation because it lacked sufficient time to advance to a peak. The first half of the generation lay in a strong Nomad cusp and the second half lay in a strong Adaptive cusp. In effect, there was no real Civic generation and that is precisely what S&H state.

If this analysis is valid, then it would suggest that the nation in fact entered the Crisis in 1850 and the whole decade of the 1850s was within 4T. It is not that the War came early, rather it is that the Crisis came early. In fact, a 4T start in 1850 produces a turning of normal length (18 years through to the 1868 date suggested by the later cusp). The turning which was cut short was, not the 4T, but the 3T and this prevented the development of a true (or at least strong) Civic generation. We effectively moved from Nomad straight to Adaptive, not because the War came early, but because the Crisis of 1850 came early.

I'll have to think about this some more. But it does put a different twist on things as well as offer an explanation. The Catalyst would be the Crisis of 1850, and our discussion about whether John Brown's raid or the election of Lincoln lit the fuse would truly be, not about the Catalyst, but about Pearl Harbor. The Catalyst should have come between 1858 and 1862 or thereabouts (18-22 year Civic generation from 1838 + 2 years into Adaptive), but because it came prematurely in 1850, we suffered through weak and unprepared leaders throughout the 1850s. It was a hybrid 3T-ized Crisis and thus was highly dysfunctional.

So now I have the following:

1820 - Gilded Advent (1822 Catalyst minus 2 years)

+ 18 years

1838 - Civic Advent (1840 recovery and turn minus 2 years) - There effectively was no Civic generation since it peaked at an irregularly low level and the first half represents a strong Nomad cusp while the second half represents a strong Adaptive cusp.

+ 10 years

1848 - Progressive Advent (1850 Catalyst minus 2 years)

+ 18 years

1866 - Missionary Advent (1868 turn minus 2 years)

+ 18 years

1884 - Lost Advent (1886 Catalyst minus 2 years)

1906 - GI Advent (1908 turn minus 2 years)

etc., etc.

Whatever.
If you want to read a new article about "Millennials" they aren't called anything in this article, just different, then go to Forbes magazine online and read "The New Smarts".
They even single my gen out as being Gen X by saying "6 years ago these kids were thought of as weirdos and outcasts" and "in an early generation they would have been frustrated and felt alienated and wanted to destroy, now they want to rebuild and fix"

Its a great article.

Heres the link.
http://www.forbes.com/asap/2002/0325/034.html

On 2002-05-01 20:23, Miss Anthrope wrote:

But I think they're right about 1982 being the first Millennial year. College students in their freshman and sophomore years seem much more civically minded and community oriented than the seniors and juniors, at least to me. They are more into team sports and group activities

Hmmmmmm...this sounds an awful lot to me like what Justin always says. All into the team sports and spirit, with the breakoff right at 1999/2000.

and seem somehow less edgy than the older students. They listen to the Backstreet Boys and the new pop groups, while the older students listen to alternative.

Do you actually know any college students who listen to Backstreet Boys? Are there actually any of them out there in COLLEGE level? I don't know of any. Even the students at sophomore or frosh level who like to please adults, talk about loving their country and stuff, etc. are most likely to just turn on the easy listening station or classical station or not to show interest in music at all.

The older students (the Xers) seem to look down on them, rolling their eyes and trying their best to ignore their shrieks of protest. The Millenials get frustrated with the Xers because the Xers don't listen to what they have to say.

This sounds also like Justin's attitude. The laughing, not listening, they're a "completely different generation". If this isn't a new person, I don't know who else it could be, since I never see anyone else on here stating that Xers look down on people younger. I certainly never hear junior and senior students snickering or looking down at the lower classes in MY college!

Jesse--RFLMAO! :lol:
You think I'm Justin?
:lol: