On 2002-05-09 19:49, Kevin Parker '59 wrote:
On 2002-05-09 19:04, mmailliw wrote:
Here I am... standing all alone in my wacky belief that 2T and 3T coexisted throughout most (Reagan election in late 80s - Black Monday, 1987) of the 1980s... is there any reason why any one year needs to be pure awakening or pure unravelling?
Not at all. All the generations and turnings are a bit fuzzy around the edges. My early elementary school years (1964-67), for example, were enough like the 50s that I feel like I had a genuine High experience-- though that period of time is classified by S&H as Awakening.
But there does have to be a cut-off someplace, and the Kennedy assassination is as good a place as any and better than most for the mood shift. This is largely because the trends which later defined the 2T began right on cue after that event, starting with the Beatles' American debut on the Ed Sullivan Show.
I would agree with you that the period from 1981 through 1987 (most of the Reagan years) were a transition from 2T to 3T. Reagan's initial election in November 1980 did nothing to dampen the Awakening fervor. In fact, it may have even intensified it, as if the populace were driven to enjoy the last gasp of an era to be soon swept away. And swept away it was-- I graduated from college in late 1983 and joined the professional workforce on March 10, 1984. That was a profound life change for me, but the next year-- 1985-- is when i noticed that the world itself seemed profoundly different than it was when i graduated. I recall being extremely depressed that year, even though I had a great deal to be happy about-- great job, new apartment, etc. It was as if with Reagan's re-election, the world's very axis had shifted, and I no longer was sure precisely where I stood on it.
For this reason I consider 1985 as the first year of the 3T, though S&H start the era in '84. Of course, it is possible that '85 was the social moment, the point at which most people realize that the world has changed (like '67 was for the 2T, '49 for 1T, and '32 for the last 4T), and that the 3T Catalyst actually happened earlier. Mark Y makes a good case for 3T beginning in 1981 after Reagan's first election -- although the problem with that is that there's no way I can see the Millennial Generation beginning in 1978. So I stick with Reagan's late-'84 reelection as the 3T Catalyst, with the 3T Social Moment as either Challenger or Black Monday.
Moving forward into the next (current?) 4T, it is still possible that 911 was indeed the Catalyst even though we do seem to be slipping back into an Unravelling-era mindset. It may take a couple more years for people realize that the world really IS different now. That will be the social moment, the point of Regeneracy. Perhaps the 4T Social Moment will occur in 2005 when someone nearly unknown at the present time is inaugurated President.
<font size=-1>[ This Message was edited by: Kevin Parker '59 on 2002-05-09 20:13 ]</font>